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This paper discusses the relationship between morality and engagement focused on the narratives about climate change. The goal of our research is to understand whether moral grounds identified in individuals and in narratives can influence youth's engagement in environmental debate and news consumption on climate change. Recognizing that people's perceptions of climate change are related to several factors, such as ideas, cultures, and values, we sought to understand whether there is a "green morality" or a prevalence of more responsive moral attributes in individuals when they are exposed to thinking about the environment. We use the Moral Foundations Theory to analyze comments on the environmental news on Twitter and a questionnaire adapted to the environment on moral grounds. The data were collected from Brazil and Portugal between 2021 and 2022. The overall results showed a high incidence of responses with Care/Harm and Fairness/Cheating, and an average incidence of responses related to Loyalty/Betrayal and Authority/Subversion. The results indicate that youngsters show a more prominent moral to care and environmental harm, as well as justice and responsibility, which may influence their interest in the consumption of environmental news and future engagement. In addition, there are factors, such as political issues, that can influence moral values and engagement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper interrogates the extent to which imaginaries of climate and ecological breakdown attend to the memories, knowledges, and experiences of communities already impacted by histories of racism, colonialism, and poverty. Drawing on insights from Black studies and decolonial thinking, the article reflects on how the causes and effects of anthropogenic climate change can be mapped onto geographies of racialised violence and social dispossession. Specific emphasis is given to Rio de Janeiro, notably its port area, a geographical space where future-oriented narratives remain oblivious to the city's history of anti-Black violence and Indigenous genocide. In parallel, the paper looks at the recently built Museum of Tomorrow and its public representations of the Anthropocene. Overall, the article contends that pluralising accounts of the Anthropocene might offer alternative epistemic entry points for understanding and interrupting the mounting ecological catastrophe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical models have been developed to investigate and understand responses of biogeochemical cycle to global changes. Steady state, when a system is in dynamic equilibrium, is generally required to initialize these model simulations. However, the spin‐up process that is used to achieve steady state pose a great burden to computational resources, limiting the efficiency of global modeling analysis on biogeochemical cycles. This study introduces a new Semi‐Analytical Spin‐Up (SASU) to tackle this grand challenge. We applied SASU to Community Land Model version 5 and examined its computational efficiency and accuracy. At the Brazil site, SASU is computationally 7 times more efficient than (or saved up to 86% computational cost in comparison with) the traditional native dynamics (ND) spin‐up to reach the same steady state. Globally, SASU is computationally 8 times more efficient than the accelerated decomposition spin‐up and 50 times more efficient than ND. In summary, SASU achieves the highest computational efficiency for spin‐up on site and globally in comparison with other spin‐up methods. It is generalizable to wide biogeochemical models and thus makes computationally costly studies (e.g., parameter perturbation ensemble analysis and data assimilation) possible for a better understanding of biogeochemical cycle under climate change. Plain Language Summary: Land carbon cycle models, a critical component of earth system models, have been developed to investigate and understand ecological responses to global changes. However, the model spin‐up process to achieve steady state are usually time‐consuming and pose great computational burden. The spin‐up problem hinders our ability to study some key issues in land carbon cycle modeling, such as sensitivity analysis. This paper applies a new SASU framework to accelerate spin‐up of Community Land Model matrix version 5. Compared with traditional native dynamic approach, SASU speeds up the spin‐up by approximately 50 times, achieving the fastest spin‐up speed than all the previously recorded methods. Our SASU method is applicable to biogeochemical models and, therefore, liberates the models for computationally costly studies, such as parameter perturbation ensemble analysis and data assimilation. Key Points: A new semi‐analytical spin‐up (SASU) framework combines the default accelerated spin‐up method and matrix analytical algorithmSASU accelerates CLIM5 spin‐up by tens of times, becoming the fastest method to our knowledgeSASU is applicable to most biogeochemical models and enables computationally costly study, for example, sensitivity analysis [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A crucial aspect analysed during the last years, aiming to improve sugarcane production, is the impact of climate change on sugarcane productivity. One of the strategies to mitigate climate change's impact on sugarcane yield is the development of new varieties known to positively affect crop production. This paper analysed how climate change impacts sugarcane production regarding the different planted varieties. Data regarding sugarcane harvest were collected from a cooperative in the south of Goiás state—Brazil, the second biggest national sugarcane producer. Results indicate that climate impact on sugarcane yield is irrelevant when controlling for different varieties. Considering the results presented in this work, the Brazilian government should keep the incentives for the development of new sugarcane varieties and, at the same time, spur sugarcane producers to use the new sugarcane varieties. The results imply that if the variety is correctly chosen, sugarcane can be produced without harming the environment, contributing to reaching SDG 15. Moreover, it is less probable that an adverse climatic event will destroy the planted area, preventing sugarcane producers from severe loss and contributing to achieving SDGs number 1 and 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses the impact of COVID-19 on the rights of indigenous peoples, particularly in Brazil. It deals with the current situation of the Brazilian indigenous peoples, the impacts of the pandemic, the rights created on the adoption of protective sanitary measures for indigenous people and land rights in Brazil. Does the Brazilian government comply with international law, with constitutional rights of indigenous peoples in the current COVID-19 crisis, particularly with the Brazilian Supreme Court decision on the adoption of protective sanitary measures for indigenous people? With a focus on the 2020 Report of the Special Rapporteur on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, this paper will identify and examine the gaps in protection of the indigenous peoples rights by reason of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis. This paper argues that the crisis is misused as an occasion for land invasions, deforestation, forest fires and the denial of basic indigenous rights. Especially in Brazil, a transformative change, an emergency support for indigenous peoples, and a still stand agreement on logging and extractive industries operating next to indigenous communities are needed. Brazilian NGO statements give guidelines as to how to manage the threats of the present pandemic on indigenous peoples of Brazil. The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, the United Nations and the International Labour Organisation all offer further relevant suggestions as to how to address the serious impacts in the response to and the aftermath of this crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to explore how the principles of participatory action research (PAR) articulate with questions of climate justice. Drawing on three qualitative case studies in Brazil, Fiji and Kenya, the paper explores university institutional capabilities, asking how the principles of mobilising PAR to support transformative outcomes can further climate justice. The paper argues that for participatory action research to become a pathway to build universities' capabilities, key considerations are needed. PAR needs to: (a) move beyond change in individual behaviour to respond to climate change and affect institutional norms, procedures and practices; (b) recognise and partner with marginalised groups whose voice and experiences are at the periphery of climate debate, enabling reciprocal flows of impact and knowledge between universities and wider societies; and (c) foster "relationships of equivalence" with actors within as well as outside university to influence university governance and wider climate-related policy-making processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adapting reservoir operation to a changing climate is important to improve water system performance toward benefits including water security, and energy production. However, managers still need to know if and how reoperation can also assist long-term mitigation of climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems, creating, for example, opportunities to revert fish migration and recruitment losses. This paper investigates the operational adaptive capacity of water systems to mitigate climate change impacts on both hydropower and aquatic ecosystems, with a detailed representation of fish species recruitment response to flow regime changes. The methodology framework combines hydroclimatic modeling, explicit stochastic reservoir operation modeling, and predictive modeling of migratory fish recruitment abundance, illustrated using the large-scale hydropower system of the Paraná River Basin in Brazil. Results identified that operating policies can be adapted to improve hydropower production under a changing climate with drier conditions by 2% to 8% compared with current operating policies. Although insufficient to eliminate all energy losses that climate change may cause, the optimized operation provided flexibility to adjust flow releases and reduce the likelihood of future severe multiyear deficits, which are very harmful to fish populations. Adapting operation to climate change sacrificed fish recruitment performance over a few years of the time horizon to maintain an overall higher storage, but it also improved the chances of producing flow releases in magnitude, timing, and duration during long drier periods that prevented more severe impacts of climate change on fish recruitment and population. This indicates that it might be possible to have synergies in adapting reservoir operation to not only prevent energy losses, but also to improve fish recruitment under climate change. The ecosystem resiliency under adapted operation increased up to 2 times compared with the isolated climate change effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plot-based monitoring has yielded much information on the taxonomic diversity and carbon (C) storage in tropical lowland forests of the Amazon basin. This has resulted in an improved understanding of the relationship between lowland forest biomass dynamics and global change drivers, such as climate change and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Much less attention has been paid to the mountain ecosystems of South America that comprise montane forests and alpine vegetation (páramo, puna, high Andean grasslands, wetlands, and alpine heath). This vegetation complex provides a variety of ecosystem services and forms a natural laboratory along various physiographic, geological and evolutionary history/biogeography, and land use history gradients. Here, we review existing empirical understanding and model-based approaches to quantify the contribution of mountain ecosystems to ecosystem service provision in the rapidly changing socioecological setting of the South American mountains. The objective of this paper is to outline a broad road map for the implementation of mountain vegetation into dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) for use in Earth System Models (ESM), based on our current understanding of their structure and function and of their responsiveness to global change drivers. We also identify treeline processes, critical in mountain ecosystems, as key missing elements in DGVMs/ESMs, and thus explore in addition a treeline model. Stocktaking of the availability of empirical data was undertaken from eight research sites along the Andes and in south-eastern Brazil. Out of eight sites, two (one each in Venezuela and Brazil) had some climate, ecological and ecophysiological data potentially suitable to parametrise a DGVM. Tree biomass data were available for six sites. A preliminary assessment of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) DGVM was made to identify gaps in available data and their impacts on model parametrisation and calibration. Additionally, the potential climate-determined elevation of the treeline was modelled to check the DGVM for its ability to identify the transition between the montane forest and alpine vegetation. Outcomes of the evaluation of the JULES land surface model identified the following key processes in montane forests: temperature-related decrease in net primary production, respiration, and allocation to above-ground biomass and increase in soil C stocks with elevation. There was a variable agreement between simulated biomass and those derived from field measurements via allometric equations. We identified major gaps between data availability and the needs for process-based modelling of South American mountain vegetation and its dynamics in DGVMs. To bridge this gap, we propose a transdisciplinary network, composed of members of the theoretical/modelling and empirical scientific communities, to study the natural dynamics of mountain ecosystems and their responses to global change drivers locally, regionally and at the continental scale, within a social-ecological system framework. The work presented here forms the basis for the design of data collection from field measurements and instrumental monitoring stations to parametrise and verify DGVMs. The network is designed to collaborate with and complement existing long-term research initiatives in the region and will adopt existing standard field protocols. Complementary protocols will ensure compatibility between field data collection and data needed for process-based and empirical models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to report on the status and the development of education for sustainable development (ESD) and sustainability literacy (SL) in three Latin American (LA) higher education institutions (HEIs) business programs in Peru, Brazil and Colombia. The paper examines institutional efforts to both introduce and implement ESD curricula and provide SL. Design/methodology/approach: The methods used in this paper included reviews of university Web pages and course materials. Structured interviews were also conducted with program leaders, to examine the level of ESD, as input affecting the business programs curricula of the universities concerned. Findings: Initial findings suggest that, in the three HEIs surveyed, there is still a tendency to talk about issues related to ESD but actions that confirm this interest are not sufficiently advanced. The authors surveys a sample of business programs curricula and interviewed its leaders and a mixed and dated picture emerged. When compared to other regions particularly the USA and Europe, the findings show that the HEIs surveyed still have not developed enough work to distinguish conceptually between sustainable development, ESD and SL making the embedment of these concepts in the curriculum not fully developed. Originality/value: In LA HEIs, the ESD message seems to be slowly taking ground, equipping HEIs to respond to SL concerns. Implementation and practice in some HEIs are still at an embryonic and conceptually confused stage with regard to LA HEIs SL. This paper sheds light to help ESD delivery. It offers some strategies for moving on from this inception phase to a more structured SL provision and ESD outlook. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to find probabilities of extreme values of the air temperature for the Cerrado, Pantanal and Atlantic Forest biomes in Mato Grosso do Sul in Brazil. In this case a maximum likelihood estimation was employed for the probability distributions fitting the extreme monthly air temperatures for 2007–2018. Using the Extreme Value Theory approach this work estimates three probability distributions: the Generalized Distribution of Extreme Values (GEV), the Gumbel (GUM) and the Log-Normal (LN). The Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, the corrected Akaike criterion AICc, the Bayesian information criterion BIC, the root of the mean square error RMSE and the determination coefficient R2 were applied to measure the goodness-of-fit. The estimated distributions were used to calculate the probabilities of occurrence of maximum monthly air temperatures over 28–32 °C. Temperature predictions were done for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 30-, 50- and 100-year return periods. The GEV and GUM distributions are recommended to be used in the warmer months. In the coldest months, the LN distribution gave a better fit to a series of extreme air temperatures. Deforestation, combustion and extensive fires, and the related aerosol emissions contribute, alongside climate change, to the generation of extreme air temperatures in the studied biomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional approach to characterize extreme rainfall events is based on using past observed data to fit a probability distribution, which is used to associate a certain probability of occurrence to a rainfall magnitude, under a stationary assumption. Observed series, however, may exhibit trends and abrupt changes, resulting from the natural hydro climatic variability and the climate change context, which are not usually considered in the stationary modelling procedure and which may affect the characterization of extreme events. In this paper, it was evaluated the presence of these temporal changes in rainfall series and their impact to estimate design quantiles, using rainfall data of 317 stations, located in São Paulo State, Brazil. The results showed that extreme rainfall events are changing in the state. Low-return period events (up to 10 years) are intensifying. Moderate- and high-return period events, on the other hand, did not present a clear spatial pattern. Trends and abrupt changes may significantly influence the estimation of design quantiles. The presence of the former in rainfall series exhibited more influence on low-return period events, showing, however, no clear relationship with high-return period design quantiles. The presence of the latter seems to influence the characterization process, affecting estimated quantiles of all evaluated return periods. Such findings highlight the need to consider the presence of trends and abrupt changes and their influence on design quantiles for a more reliable characterization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many regions around the world are facing climate changes, with substantial increase in air temperature over the past decades, which is mainly related to continental and global warming forced by the higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objectives of this study were to use the Köppen climate classification to detect local climate change based on a historical series of 100 years and to assess if such change is related to those that are occurring in other spatial scales as a likely consequence of increasing GHG. This paper brings a content full of innovative results. The study area presented an average annual air temperature increase by 0.9 °C between 1917 and 2016, rising from 21.4 °C for the first climatological normal (1917–1946) to 22.3 °C for the last one (1987–2016). Furthermore, in the summer months, the temperature rose from 24.5 to 25.3 °C, and in the winter months, such increase was from 17.1 (1917–1946) to 18.3 °C (1987–2016). Our findings showed the subtropical conditions (Cfa in Köppen's classification) in the study area persisted from the beginning of the analysis (1917–1946) until the climatological normal of 1979–2008, with a clear tendency of tropicalization after that with a change in the climate type of Piracicaba from subtropical to tropical, which can now be classified as tropical with dry winter (Aw climate type). The local average air temperature showed concordances with the long-term air temperature anomalies from regional, continental, and global scales, indicating that all of them may be linked with increasing GHG emissions, since well-defined long-term linear relationships (r2 = 0.99) were observed between continental and global average air temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 concentration observed at the NOAA Lab in Mauna Loa in the last 59 years. While the local and regional forcing effects remain to be fully unraveled, our study provided a valid and strong scientific sound evidence that climate change occurred in Piracicaba, southeastern Brazil, in the last 100 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper aims to compute climatological zones apt for the cultivation of pitaya based on trends in the occurrence of climate change events from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change) in Brazil. We used temperature and precipitation data from 4942 cities collected on the NASA/POWER platform (National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) from 1990 to 2020 to elaborate on the current scenario. The climate change scenarios were obtained using the CHELSA platform (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) and corresponded to the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 associated with four IPCC climate change scenarios. The spatialization of the data occurred according to the bioclimatic classes designed to meet the thermal and water needs of the crop. In the current scenario, class B5 has a predominance of 37.07% of the country, characterizing the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast regions, as well as the state of Paraná, as suitable for the cultivation of pitaya. Projections of temperature increase and reduction of accumulated rainfall were found throughout Brazil, but with greater impact in the North and Northeast regions, which had the greatest reduction of areas suitable for the cultivation of pitaya with a greater predominance of classes B8 and B9. In the South and Southeast regions, class B5 makes up a large part of the areas that remained suitable for the production of this fruit until 2080. The results suggest that climate change does not benefit the cultivation of pitaya in some regions of Brazil because the dimensions of the areas suitable for economic production are restricted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Out-of-sample prediction of extreme precipitation using nonstationary models. • Significant trends in data of extreme precipitation are insufficient to warrant the selection of a nonstationary model. • Large prediction uncertainty reduces the support for nonstationary models of extreme precipitation. • (Non)stationary model selection should explicitly account for model complexity. Knowledge of the recurrence intervals of precipitation extremes is vital for infrastructure design, risk assessment, and insurance planning. However, trends and shifts in rainfall patterns globally pose challenges to the application of extreme value analysis (EVA) which relies critically on the assumption of stationarity. In this paper, we explore: (1) the suitability of nonstationary (NS) models in the presence of statistically significant trends, and (2) their potential in modeling out-of-sample data to improve frequency analysis of extreme precipitation. We analyze the benefits of using a nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model for annual extreme precipitation records from Southern Brazil. The location of the GEV distribution is allowed to change with time. The unknown GEV model parameters are estimated using Bayesian techniques coupled with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Next, we use GAME sampling to compute the evidence (and their ratios, the so-called Bayes factors) for stationary and nonstationary models of annual maximum precipitation. Our results show that the presence of a statistically significant trend in annual maximum precipitation alone does not justify the use of a NS model. The location parameter of the GEV distribution must also be well defined, otherwise, stationary models of annual maximum precipitation receive more support by the data. These findings reiterate the importance of accounting for GEV model parameters and predictive uncertainty in frequency analysis and hypothesis testing of annual maximum precipitation data records. Furthermore, a meaningful EVA demands detailed knowledge about the origin and persistence of observed changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The following paper aims to reconstruct the evolution of this dynamic by tracing the interpretations and reinterpretations of the norm done by Brazilian state actors through the process of localization of the norm in the domestic discourse on climate change in Brazil from 2005 to 2010. The theoretical perspective is based on the literature about norms internalization that attempts to specify the conditions under which international norms find salience in particular domestic contexts. Two main interpretations coexist within the Brazilian political arena in the period within the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol until the signature of the Paris agreement that influenced the climate politics in Brazil in that period. The first stand around the norm was a traditional interpretation of the principle defending a position of historical responsibilities that implies that Brazil did not have to take greenhouse gas reduction measures. The second position is a more progressive interpretation of the norm that argues that Brazil, as an emergent country, can and must adopt emissions reductions. The tie between both positions allows us to understand the alleged ups and downs in climate policy in the time frame studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pastureland maintenance is seen as a land-based measure to reduce dependency on feed concentrates and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock production in the EU, while providing other ecosystems services. This paper assesses potential market-mediated impacts, including global Land Use Change (LUC) and GHG emissions, from increased subsidies to pasture-based livestock production in the EU. A tax recycling strategy (TRS) is simulated against a baseline up to 2030 under the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2). This implies a budget-neutral increase in the level of pasture subsidies in individual Member States, as land subsidies for other cropping activities decrease. We employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP in its recursive-dynamic version, GTAP-RDEM, extended with the Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) database FABIO to disaggregate agri-food sectors from 21 to 31. This approach allows considering price- and income-dependent feedbacks when assessing long-run changes in the global economy, improving the sectoral resolution relative to GTAP v10. The policy increases pastureland areas and cattle production in almost all EU Member States, whereas cropland and crop production decrease, causing significant changes across EU agri-food markets. Crop prices increase, leading to the reduced output of intensive animal production sectors, mainly pig and poultry. Cropland areas decrease and most EU countries increase imports of grain, oilseeds, and cakes, essentially soybean cake from Brazil and North America. While GHG emissions decrease in those EU countries where pasturelands expand mainly at the cost of croplands, GHG emissions increase in those countries where pastureland expansion comes with forest loss. As a result, net GHG emissions increase in the EU-27 in 2030 (+2.49 Mt CO 2 -eq). Emissions from LUC in major non-EU grain- and oilseed-exporting countries increase, e.g., by 102.52 Mt CO 2 -eq in Brazil and by 129.17 Mt CO 2 -eq in North America. The simulated policy shows that promoting extensive livestock per se does not meet the objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy and the EU Green Deal. The TRS should be complemented with policies to foster crop diversification and promote the use of domestic feed sources (e.g., legumes) to effectively ensure feed self-sufficiency and that extensive cattle production in the EU does not lead to deforestation in carbon-rich countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of wind power has gained prominence on the world stage, especially in Brazil. In addition to generating energy free of emissions, wind technology is the second cheapest generation option in Brazil. At the same time, it has contributed to reducing hydrological vulnerability caused by climate variation. Although wind power has experienced a steady expansion in the last decade, recent poor outcomes of wind auctions produced uncertainty about the future of this technology in the country. This paper analyses the influence of contract mechanisms used in Brazilian energy auctions for the growth of wind generation. To do this, a scenario analysis based on a hybrid simulation model is used, combining agent-based modelling (ABM) and system dynamics (SD). From the hybrid simulation, the effect of the wind project cancellation policy is analysed, on the one hand, and different ceiling prices for competing sources in the auctions are assessed, on the other. Moreover, the simulation model shows how hydro conditions affect reserve energy auctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyze the vulnerability to climate change of family farmers in the Rio Doce region, Minas Gerais. The theoretical background was based on the discussion about the negative impacts of climate change on family farming. Vulnerability was identified through its dimensions related to sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity, which were measured by representative indexes, based on socioeconomic and demographic data from 206 farmers in the region, and municipality climate variables. The results indicated that low pluriactivity and reduced access to irrigation mechanisms increased farmers' sensitivity. The low precipitation rates, in relation to the regional historical average, increased the exposure to climate change. The adaptive capacity can be attributed to the low access to rural credit and the absence of public irrigation projects. Therefore, high vulnerability were a consequence of high exposure and sensitivity rates, combined with low adaptive capacity. The results suggest that the region should receive attention in terms of public policies to reduce its vulnerability, enabling it to face more intense climate change scenarios in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major challenge for humankind is to reduce global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to avoid the most harmful impacts of climate change. The transport sector is responsible for almost 1/4 of the world's energy-related emissions, with road transportation representing around 1/5 of the fuel consumption. Electric vehicles (EVs) may help to reduce CO2 emissions, but their diffusion is uncertain due to market barriers. This paper investigates the electric vehicle (EV), which has a smaller ecological footprint, as an alternative capable of meeting the needs of personal transport in Brazil. To carry out this evaluation, the study considers socio-techno-economic and political-environmental-innovation aspects to assess the challenges and opportunities facing the adoption of electric vehicles. The analysis was carried out based on a survey administered to a wide range of stakeholders. A SWOT analysis was performed to understand the most critical factors affecting the future of EVs in Brazil, which is a top-ten automotive manufacturer worldwide and a leader in sugar cane ethanol production. The results suggest light-duty electric vehicles (LDEV) as a first option for low-carbon passengers' mobility and that EVs expansion will require market regulation, incentive policies and adequate charging infrastructure. Both consumers and society in general will benefit most from the expansion of EVs due to low emissions and total cost of ownership (TCO). The results show where decision-makers should focus their attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both global climate change and urbanization trends will demand adaptation measures in cities. Large agglomerations and impacts on landscape and natural environments due to city growth will require guided densification schemes in urban areas, particularly in developing countries. Human biometeorological indices such as the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) could guide this process, as they provide a clear account of expected effects on thermal sensation from a given change in outdoor settings. However, an earlier step should optimally include an adequacy test of suggested comfort and thermal stress ranges with calibration procedures based on surveys with the target population. This paper compares obtained thermal comfort ranges for three different locations in Brazil: Belo Horizonte, 20° S, Aw climate type; Curitiba, 25.5° S, Cfb subtropical climate, both locations in elevation (above 900 m a.s.l.); and Pelotas, at sea level, latitude 32° S, with a Cfa climate type. In each city, a set of outdoor comfort field campaigns has been carried out according to similar procedures, covering a wide range of climatic conditions over different seasons of the year. Obtained results indicate a variation of neutral temperatures up to 3 °C (UTCI units) as a possible latitude and local climate effect between the southern locations relative to the northernmost location. Low UTCI values were found in the two subtropical locations for the lower threshold of the thermal comfort band as compared with the original threshold. A possible explanation for that is a longer exposure to cold conditions as buildings are seldom provided with heating systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates climate change impacts on the hydrology and water quality of Brazilian semi-arid reservoirs. An integrated approach coupling climate, hydrological and water quality models was proposed. Five general circulation models (GCMs) and two future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were used for the projections. The simulations showed that uncertainty in climate forecast significantly impacted hydrological and water quality outputs. Some scenarios revealed a strong decrease in streamflow and storage volume. On the other hand, 40% of multi-GCM projections indicated reservoir eutrophication. The impacts on hydrology and water quality under SSP5-8.5 were more significant than those under SSP2-4.5. The results also indicated that drought events may be prolonged under climate change, principally at the end of the 21st century for SSP5-8.5, and may significantly increase the total phosphorus concentration. This suggests that tropical semi-arid reservoirs could be more vulnerable to eutrophication in scenarios of climate change than those in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines to what extent the adverse effects of climate change can be considered triggering factors of public insecurity. Against this background, it explores the growing environmental conflicts involving water resources in Brazil, including the Amazon region. In addition to the introduction and conclusion, the paper is structured around three topics. The first one outlines how the concept of public security has evolved to the present state, in which climate change is taken into account. Next, climate change is discussed as a factor that magnifies vulnerabilities, an argument supported by a discussion of historical events. The third topic highlights the main threats, vulnerabilities and conflicts involving water resources in Brazil, taking a scientific view of systemic risks and precaution. Finally, we propose rethinking the concept of public security in Brazil from a perspective of parameters involving regulations, principles and state initiative. The article suggests that the immediate and future effects of climate change do have a profound impact on social systems and on the environment, and may be a triggering factor of public insecurity. If institutions and governments do not address existing effects, and invest in adaptations to meet future scientific forecasts on climate change, social stability and the development of a culture of peace will be less likely in Brazil. A fundamental step in this process is the reformulation of the conventional concept of public security in the Brazilian legislation, in order to expressly incorporate the variable of climate security among its stated objectives. In addition, we point out a set of actions and principles with the potentital to promote not only adaptation and resilience, but also contribute to building peace. In terms of methodology, the study is descriptive, exploratory, legislative, bibliographical and documentary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to explore part of the existing legal toolkit-of legislation, case law, and doctrine-that is already consolidated in the Environmental Law field and should be explored for litigating the climate crisis in Brazil. The article makes the case that Brazil is a fertile ground for climate litigation by articulating already established and successfully tested legal avenues for preventing, mitigating, and compensating adverse environmental impacts caused by the private sector or by the State, and that can be brought before national courts as strong legal arguments. Like a frame of glasses, the legal framework that underpins environmental licensing and civil environmental liability in Brazil needs to receive the "lenses" of climate change in order to be transformed into an effective climate litigation tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts in one country can lead to impacts in distant locations, for example, via internationally traded crops. Previous work has highlighted a need to include cross-border climate change impacts in climate risk assessments, to describe the exposure and transmission of cross-border climate risk across actors, and understand options for managing this risk. In a case study of the Brazil-Europe soy supply chain, this paper aims to explore how stakeholders perceive past and future shocks, how climate change impacts affect stakeholders differently, and how they might respond. Soy is a key internationally traded commodity and Europe relies on imports for the majority of its soy consumption, used widely in livestock feed. Via 96 semi-structured expert interviews, we found different stakeholder groups are vulnerable to different types of weather shocks, experience different price and supply consequences, and have different capacities to respond. While some responses can reduce risk of impacts across the supply chain (e.g. new soy cultivars, improving transport infrastructure), we also identified examples where responses exacerbate risk for other stakeholders (e.g. export bans, changing demand). A holistic cross-border approach to analysing risk in the soy supply chain can help avoid maladaptation and offer opportunities for more collaborative adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Bibliographic mapping was used to identify major research groups and trends for heat tolerance in farm animals. • Major research countries are the USA, China, Brazil, India, Australia and UK with 54% of all publications. • There was a gradual drift in heat stress studies from animal physiology towards genomics and cellular biology. • This area of research is growing 3x faster than publication rates in general. • Most papers are on cattle, indicating the need for studies with other species. This study looks at the bibliographic mapping of citation, co-occurrence of keywords, co-citation and bibliographic coupling for heat tolerance in farm animals. Data was obtained from Scopus (Elsevier) and analysed in Vosviewer. Several salient points emerge from our analysis. We found a total of 1728 documents from 102 countries, of which 54% are from six countries (USA, China, Brazil, India, Australia and UK). While heat tolerance is important, Global South countries have recently become more important in this topic. Nevertheless, researchers from this region appear relatively isolated using the metrics of this study. One potential factor contributing to isolation could be lack of funding. This is discussed in the light of current Article Processing Charges. We also note a gradual drift in heat stress studies from animal physiology towards genomics and cellular biology. The paper can help understanding tendencies in this field of research and may point to future actions within the research community. This paper also shows the need to strengthen studies in less favoured areas and with species such as small ruminants, whereby small holders may be harder hit by climate change. Biases in the analysis could arise due to low citations from recent papers or those not indexed in Scopus. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The São Francisco delta in eastern Brazil is considered a classical example of a wave-dominated delta constructed in a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) far-field region. Although this delta is widely mentioned in the international literature, few details about its sedimentary architecture have been published. In this paper, we use a new dataset consisting of 15 boreholes and 26 radiocarbon datings to discuss the 3D architecture of the delta and the role played by GIA far-field effects in delta construction. The delta plain consists of a 10–12 m thick littoral sand sheet that progrades over a muddy subaqueous clinoform, forming a compound clinoform. Delta construction began between 8.4 and 7.2 ka BP and included a stage of normal regression that lasted until 5.7 ka BP, followed by a stage of forced regression. The transition between these two stages is marked by the highest position of the sand–mud transition in the boreholes. This forced regression is due to a 3–4-m drop in relative sea level since the mid-Holocene, which is characteristic of GIA far-field regions. Additionally, as a consequence of this drop in relative sea level, there is a progressive increase in the altitude of the beach-ridge deposits continentward, which combined with the development of extensive dune fields in the later stages of delta construction, contributes to the increased resilience of the delta to ongoing sea-level rise. The 3D architecture of the delta was strongly influenced by antecedent topography. The delta was built on a bathymetric depression on the shelf that almost entirely traps the sediment load of the São Francisco River. The uneven relief inside this bathymetric depression ultimately controlled lateral variations in the total thickness of the delta edifice. • Two-stage delta construction in GIA far-field regions: normal and forced regression. • Drop in sea level since mid-Holocene in GIA far-field regions increases delta resilience to ongoing sea-level rise. • Antecedent topography strongly controlled the delta 3D architecture. • 3D architecture of the São Francisco wave-dominated delta is presented for the first time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We combined occupational accidents data and climatic variables into a new database. • We verified a positive association between heat stress and occupational accidents. • There is an association between high levels heat stress and death of the worker. • Workers of color are associated to higher levels of heat stress. • Unprecedented results and database on Brazilian research. Work accidents result in consequences to the employment of the population and increasing public spendings. Caused by workplace and work activity characteristics, occupational accidents may also derive from ergonomics and comfort issues. Heat stress is a discomfort factor that affects workers when exposed to temperatures above the body limits, resulting in exhaustion, dizziness, reduced cognitive performance and, eventually, injuries and accidents. Under the current climate change scenario characterized by increase of temperature projections all around the world, the heat stress issue becomes even more significant. However, in Brazil, this topic is yet little explored, especially regarding the investigation of historical data on occupational accidents considering the climatic variables. This paper aims at filling a part of this gap by presenting a new database that unifies a work accident database - recording from 2006 to 2019 - with meteorological data of the place and time of the accident. We investigate the relationship between these two datasets through the application of Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) in the R Software. Our results show some association between accident variables and heat stress variables. We identify some of the more critical workers' characteristics in this context and the most exposed regions of Brazil. Our database allows the continuity and expansion of this type of research in Brazil, and the MCA results point to a positive association between the occurrence of accidents with climatic variables. It may pave a new path for research that can detail and deepen the discussion on the behavior of these variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lateral and vertical distribution of sedimentary facies and ichnofacies in lacustrine systems records sensitive climatic variations and rates of subsidence. The Upper Jurassic–Lower Cretaceous lacustrine system of the Pastos Bons Formation in the Parnaíba Basin, northeastern Brazil, is an excellent opportunity to evaluate the depositional history of the post-CAMP thermal subsidence. This subsidence event succeeded the voluminous emplacement of mafic magma linked to the Central Atlantic magmatic province (CAMP), ∼201 Ma, forming a large subsiding area in West Gondwana. In this sense, this paper developed outcrop-based facies and ichnofacies analysis, allowing the interpretation of two depositional phases and four facies associations (FAs): 1) The lower depositional phase comprises lacustrine deposits showing an aggradational stacking pattern. FA1 - central lake records fibrous gypsum interbedded with fossiliferous shale beds, forming shallowing-upward cycles. 2) The upper depositional phase reveals a fluvio-lacustrine succession, forming a progradational stacking pattern. Central lake (FA1) comprises laminated mudstone and sandstone beds hosting a suite representative of Mermia ichnofacies, forming coarsening-upward cycles. Lakeshore (FA2) comprising mudstone beds, limestone lenses, and sandstone beds hosting a suite representative of Scoyenia ichnofacies, forming shallowing-upward cycles; and conglomerate lenses overlaid by sandstone beds hosting a suite representative of Skolithos ichnofacies, forming fining-upward cycles. A braided fluvial system (FA3) comprises conglomerate and sandstone beds, forming fining-upward cycles. Delta front (FA4) comprises mudstone lenses and sandstone beds hosting a suite representative of Skolithos ichnofacies, organized in coarsening-upward cycles. The fluvial discharge and wave activity oxygenated the water lake in the progradational phase, creating chemical and biological conditions that allowed the establishment of the epifaunal and infaunal benthic communities, represented by the well-preserved ichnological record. The decrease of the post-CAMP thermal subsidence rates (accommodation potential) related with the increase of the wet periods to the top of the succession (sedimentary supply) indicate a depositional evolution from underfilled to overfilled lake basin, during Upper Jurassic–Lower Cretaceous, in West Gondwana. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we use palynology and geochemical proxies to reconstruct late Quaternary vegetation changes within the hydrographic basin of Parnaíba, Northeast Brazil, over the last 130 kyrs. Findings are based on the analysis of a marine sediment core (GL-1248) retrieved from the western equatorial Atlantic (0°55.2′S, 43°24.1′W), close to the coast. Geochemical proxies (Fe/K ratio and Ɛ Nd) indicative of soil erosion match changes in reconstructed vegetation, suggesting a dynamic pattern of hydrological disturbances and ecosystem evolution. Given that reconstructed vegetation does not present the same response to precipitation anomalies on the millennial scale, we sought the main drivers of vegetation changes in the Parnaíba watershed. Results indicate that vegetation succession was primarily influenced by austral insolation from March to May, which triggered changes in the pioneer vegetation types. Our study improves the knowledge of tropical vegetation dynamics in an orbital framework, suggesting 23-kyr precessional cycles as the main driver of landscape evolution in Northeast (NE) Brazil. We also infer that such past climate change events may have been a key causal factor of the high biodiversity of the Neotropics, mediated through the biological exchange of the Amazon and Atlantic rainforest species via ecological forest corridors in the semi-arid Northeast Brazil. • We discuss vegetation change and how it reflects hydrological changes within the Parnaíba Basin, northeastern (NE) Brazil, over the past 130 kyrs • Geochemical proxies (Fe/K ratio and ƐNd) in core GL-1248 are synchronous with reconstructed vegetation patterns, highlighting periods of enhanced or reduced local soil erosion during hydrological disturbances • We define three major vegetation groups (tropical dry forest, lowland rainforest, and wetland), and the discrepancy in water requirements between tropical dry forests and lowland rainforests is discussed • Analysis of the hydroclimatic mechanisms in NE Brazil that triggered the succession of vegetation during glacial phases is discussed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the relative contribution of Land Use and Cover Changes (LUCC) and climate changes on runoff still represents a great challenge for water resources management. This issue is particularly critical for the Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB), one of the most important basins in South America and responsible for most of the production of food, ethanol, and electricity generation in Brazil. In this paper, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to quantitatively assess the relative contribution of both forcings. The simulation period included a time of great importance for climate studies, known as the 1970s global climate shift, and of great impact on river discharge within the UPRB. Three land use and cover scenarios were assigned to the 1961–1990 period of simulations, representing land use and cover during a pristine period (around the Year 1500), 1960, and 1985. Thirteen years of precipitation before and after the climate shift (considered to be the period 1974–1977) were analyzed and compared. Results showed a precipitation increase for the basin in general after the climate shift. The increase in rainfall reached up to 15% in many northern areas and more than 20% in the southern parts of the basin. By comparing all simulations, results indicate that both LUCC and precipitation increase due to the climate shift had a significant effect on the changes in annual discharge of the largest rivers of the UPRB. However, the results suggest that the impact of the precipitation increase on the discharge exceeded that of the LUCC. Between 1960 and 1985 the LUCC accounts for about 16% of the increase of the median annual discharge, whereas climate shift accounts for an increase of about 32%. These findings, suggesting a more relevant role for the climate, are consistent with two recent water crisis experienced by the country in the last decades, caused by prolonged below-normal rainfall throughout 2001/2002 and again in 2014/2015. [Display omitted] • We simulated land use and cover from a pristine period (Year 1500), 1960, and 1985. • We evaluated the effects of precipitation change on discharge from 1961 to 1990. • Natural vegetation fell by more than half of the original area up to 1985. • Precipitation increased by more than 20% after the 1970s global climate shift. • Results suggest that climate shift is the main driver in increasing annual discharge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fake controversies have influenced policy making on health and environmental issues for decades, resulting in major implementation setbacks worldwide. As a case study, in this paper we examine fake controversies produced by a small group of active Brazilian researchers that have seriously impacted environmental conservation, particularly in issues related to deforestation and climate change. Based on the literature, we develop a typology of strategies deployed in fake controversies, which include manufacturing uncertainty, misusing scientific credentials, and disregarding scientific literature. Afterwards, we examine the influence of this group of contrarians at the National Congress. We then analyze the fake controversies promoted by these contrarians and argue that, to properly understand them, we need to consider a strategy so far overlooked in the literature: the manufacture of "pseudo-facts", namely, affirmations at odds with the established literature but that strives to appear as scientific facts. Unlike other contexts, in which contrarians have mainly sought to cast doubt on consensual issues by arguing that there are still considerable uncertainties surrounding them, in Brazil pseudo-facts on deforestation have been produced and published outside the peer-reviewed literature. We conclude the study with recommendations on how to oppose fake scientific controversies that threaten environmental conservation in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents preliminary results of paleoclimatic signatures of conifer woods during the deposition of the basal Crato and topmost Romualdo members of the Santana Formation within the Tropical Equatorial Hot Arid Belt (late Aptian, Araripe Basin, Brazil). Analysis was carried out using standard thin sections, and the anatomical details were studied in transmitted light. The wood growth pattern from the lowermost laminated lacustrine carbonate level of the Crato Member was characterized by the absence of true growth rings and the common presence of wood growth interruptions, and could be linked to a tropical, equable but erratically humid environment. In an interlayered fine-to-coarse sandstone level attributed to a fluvio-deltaic interval, the wood growth pattern was homogeneous, lacking true growth rings, with weakly delineated growth interruptions over long radial distances. In this level the growth pattern could be related with a transition to a more equable tropical climate during a relatively humid period. In contrast, the wood pattern from the carbonate succession of the uppermost Romualdo Member, interpreted as a lagoon area with marine influence, showed true growth rings with abrupt ring boundaries and rings of variable width, also including frequent growth interruptions. This pattern could be linked to a monsoonal-like climate, subjected to distinct cyclical conditions and periodical droughts during the growing season. • Preliminary wood growth data showed changing climate along the Santana Formation. • A tropical, erratically humid climate was inferred for the lacustrine Crato Member. • Equable humid conditions occurred in the fluvio-deltaic Crato Member. • A tropical monsoon-like climate was inferred for Romualdo Member. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We calibrated the DSSAT/CROPGRO for several soybean maturity groups. • Crop model showed good performance under different tropical conditions. • Water productivity increase can ensure the future growth of soybean yield. • Mean soybean yields increase likely in the future climate due to CO 2 increase. In the next decades, the population is expected to rise by more than two billion people, and the projections of climate change have been considered as one of the greatest future challenges for world food security. Soybean represents more than 60 % of all plant protein produced in the world, and Brazil is the largest world exporter and the second-largest producer. In this paper, we simulated soybean yields for 16 strategically selected agroclimatic zones (CZs) to represent Brazilian production. Experiments conducted throughout the country were used to calibrate the CROPGRO-Soybean model for Brazilian conditions, for the main maturity groups used in Brazil, to simulate current and 40 future climate scenarios, provided by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for 2050 in the both 4.5 and 8.5 representative concentration pathways (RCP). We found soybean yield varying by +1 to +32 % across 16 CZs in the average scenario of future climate when compared to the current yields. Yet, we found an increase of about 5% in the yield production risk for RCP 8.5. The main reason for such results was associated with the positive effect of increasing CO 2 on crop water productivity, which overcomes the negative effects of temperature and water stress increases on rainfed Brazilian soybeans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Future impacts of LULC and climate on the streamflow and erosion by new approaches. • SWAT model was applied to estimate future runoff-erosion. • Future climate data generated using GCM coupled to regional circulation model. • The methodology contextualizes potentially significant hydrological changes. • The changes may impact the sustainability of water resources management. Water management in the Caatinga/Atlantic forest ecotone in Brazil is critically dependent on better understanding of potential future changes in streamflow and sediment dynamics. This paper evaluates both the future impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) changes and the impacts of climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield in the Tapacurá River basin in northeastern Brazil, using a novel combination of approaches. Projected climate data derived using global circulation model HadGEM2-ES were coupled to regional circulation model ETA-CPTEC/HadCM3 for two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), with bias correction. Two future LULC scenarios were generated: (a) optimistic (current LULC), and (b) pessimistic (land use change trends continue), using the multilayer perceptron algorithm (MP). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to estimate future streamflow and erosion for different periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2099). The SWAT model was calibrated for period of 1995–2003 and validated for 2004–2013. The results showed good accuracy in relation to R2, NSE and PBIAS for the calibration and validation of the runoff, as well as for the verification of the sediment yield. Simulations indicated significant increases in erosion for the pessimistic scenario under RCP 8.5, followed by the pessimistic scenario and RCP 4.5. Lower sediment yields occurred for the optimistic and RCP 8.5, with lower still for the optimistic and RCP 4.5. However, the latter estimates are still considerably higher than baseline conditions. Although higher flows are found for some scenarios, the increases in sediment yield have serious implications for reservoir siltation and storage reduction. Despite modeling uncertainty, the results demonstrate that the proposed methodology has promising scope to contextualize potentially significant regional hydrological changes which have implications for land and biodiversity management and the sustainability of water resources in the Caatinga/Atlantic forest ecotone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Evaporation trends of tropical reservoirs in Brazil were investigated. • Both positive and negative trends in evaporation were observed. • In the industrial region, the negative trend was potentially caused by the impact of pollutant released to the atmosphere. • In the coastal region, the positive trend was related to increasing air temperature. This paper aims to analyze the trends (Mann-Kendall test) of evaporation and climatological variables, including air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed in four reservoirs located in the Brazilian Northeast. The evaporation was estimated through remote sensing using the Surface Energy Balance System for Water (AquaSEBS) model from 1985 to 2018. In addition, it was verified which meteorological parameter has the highest correlation (R2) with the evaporation in order to assess why this process is changing throughout the years in each reservoir. The model performed well, with root mean square error (RMSE) ≤ 1.25 mm/day, percent bias (PBIAS) ≤ 13.70% and coefficient of determination (R2) ≥ 0.51. One reservoir located closer to a coastal zone presented a positive trend (+0.24 mm/34 years), corroborating the measurements of a reference class A pan, and Penman-Monteith equation, while the others, located closer to industrial areas, displayed negative trends (−0.26 to −0.080 mm/34 years). This reduced evaporation was attributed to the impact of industrial pollutant release to the atmosphere, while the increasing effect in the other reservoir was due to its proximity to the coast, which implies an air renewal as the sea breeze contributes for an improvement in the air quality. The meteorological data also presented positive and negative correlations: Temperature exhibited a positive trend (+0.57 °C/34 years), whereas humidity (−4.83%) and wind speed (−0.29 m/s), a negative trend. Evaporation displayed moderate coefficient of determination (R2 > 0.31) with wind speed and humidity. Yet, the reduction of evaporation may be associated with a possible counterbalancing effect of wind speed over humidity. Overall, the results contribute to a better understanding of evaporation trends in a water-scarce region and can be used in a water resources management context as the increasing/reduction of evaporation might significantly impact water availability in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]