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The accurate prediction of heavy precipitation in convective environments is crucial because such events, often occurring in Italy during the summer and fall seasons, can be a threat for people and properties. In this paper, we analyse the impact of satellite-derived surface-rainfall-rate data assimilation on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model's precipitation prediction, considering 15 days in summer 2022 and 17 days in fall 2022, where moderate to intense precipitation was observed over Italy. A 3DVar realised at CNR-ISAC (National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate) is used to assimilate two different satellite-derived rain rate products, both exploiting geostationary (GEO), infrared (IR), and low-Earth-orbit (LEO) microwave (MW) measurements: One is based on an artificial neural network (NN), and the other one is the operational P-IN-SEVIRI-PMW product (H60), delivered in near-real time by the EUMETSAT HSAF (Satellite Application Facility in Support of Operational Hydrology and Water Management). The forecast is verified in two periods: the hours from 1 to 4 (1–4 h phase) and the hours from 3 to 6 (3–6 h phase) after the assimilation. The results show that the rain rate assimilation improves the precipitation forecast in both seasons and for both forecast phases, even if the improvement in the 3–6 h phase is found mainly in summer. The assimilation of H60 produces a high number of false alarms, which has a negative impact on the forecast, especially for intense events (30 mm/3 h). The assimilation of the NN rain rate gives more balanced predictions, improving the control forecast without significantly increasing false alarms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Applying deep learning to high-precision ionospheric parameter prediction is a significant and growing field within the realm of space weather research. This paper proposes an improved model, Mixed Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)—Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM), for predicting the Total Electron Content (TEC) in China. This model was trained using the longest available Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM)-TEC from 1998 to 2023 in China, and underwent an interpretability analysis and accuracy evaluation. The results indicate that historical TEC maps play the most critical role, followed by Kp, ap, AE, F10.7, and time factor. The contributions of Dst and Disturbance Index (DI) to improving accuracy are relatively small but still essential. In long-term predictions, the contributions of the geomagnetic index, solar activity index, and time factor are higher. In addition, the model performs well in short-term predictions, accurately capturing the occurrence, evolution, and classification of ionospheric storms. However, as the predicted length increases, the accuracy gradually decreases, and some erroneous predictions may occur. The northeast region exhibits lower accuracy but a higher F1 score, which may be attributed to the frequency of ionospheric storm occurrences in different locations. Overall, the model effectively predicts the trends and evolution processes of ionospheric storms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the susceptibility of drifting snow along the Ya'an–Qamdo section of the railway, which is located in a high-altitude and cold plateau in Southwest China with scarce meteorological information, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is used in this paper to simulate the spatio-temporal distribution of meteorological data. According to the varying terrain, the railway section from Ya'an to Qamdo is divided into two regions along 100.8° E for double-layer nested simulation. The original land use data of the WRF model are used in region 1. Due to the increased number of mountains in region 2, the original data are replaced by the MCD12Q1v006 land use data, and the vertical direction layers are densified near the ground to increase simulation accuracy. The simulated results are compared with the observation data. It is found that after densification, the results have been significantly improved. The results obtained by the WRF model can accurately simulate the change trends of temperature, rainfall, and wind speed, and the correlation coefficients are relatively high, which verifies the accuracy of WRF for simulating complex terrain regions. The simulation results further indicate that approximately 300 km of the Ya'an–Qamdo railway may experience drifting snow. Among them, no drifting snow events occur in Ya'an County, and the areas with higher probability are located at the border between Luding County and Tianquan County, followed by Kangding area. The remaining areas have a probability of less than 10%. The WRF model demonstrates its capability in the drifting snow protection of railways with limited meteorological data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Space weather science has been a growing field in Africa since 2007. This growth in infrastructure and human capital development has been accompanied by the deployment of ground-based observing infrastructure, most of which was donated by foreign institutions or installed and operated by foreign establishments. However, some of this equipment is no longer operational due to several factors, which are examined in this paper. It was observed that there are considerable gaps in ground-based space-weather-observing infrastructure in many African countries, a situation that hampers the data acquisition necessary for space weather research, hence limiting possible development of space weather products and services that could help address socio-economic challenges. This paper presents the current status of space weather science in Africa from the point of view of some key leaders in this field, focusing on infrastructure, situation, human capital development, and the research landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1979, NASA established the Great Observatory program, which included four telescopes (Hubble, Compton, Chandra, and Spitzer) to explore the Universe. The Spitzer Space Telescope was launched in 2003 into solar orbit, gradually drifting away from the Earth. Spitzer was operated very successfully until 2020 when NASA terminated observations and placed the telescope in safe mode. In 2028, the U.S. Space Force has the opportunity to demonstrate satellite servicing by telerobotically reactivating Spitzer for astronomical observations, and in a separate experiment, carry out novel Space Weather research and operations capabilities by observing solar Coronal Mass Ejections. This will be accomplished by launching a small satellite, the Spitzer-Resurrector Mission (SRM), to rendezvous with Spitzer in 2030, positioning itself around it, and serving as a relay for recommissioning and science operations. A sample of science goals for Spitzer is briefly described, but the focus of this paper is on the unique opportunity offered by SRM to demonstrate novel Space Weather research and operations capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agrometeorological hazards significantly impact agricultural production and rural economic development. The interdisciplinary nature of studying these hazards poses challenges such as poor data interoperability in research. This paper proposes a method for analyzing agrometeorological hazards using knowledge graphs to understand occurrence patterns and devise response strategies. The study involves classifying agricultural and meteorological knowledge and designing a hazard entity model based on the characteristics and influencing factors of agrometeorological hazards. Data mining and extraction techniques are used to extract relevant information from multiple sources, and a knowledge graph for knowledge fusion and storage is built. The retrieval and inference capabilities of the knowledge graphs are used to intelligently analyze agrometeorological hazards. Results indicate that analyzing agrometeorological hazards using knowledge graphs is an innovative method that offers new perspectives and ideas for agricultural meteorological hazard research, thereby promoting the sustainable development of agricultural production and the stable growth of the rural economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Yao and Guan [[26]] derive atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles under all sky conditions from GIIRS-observed brightness temperatures using three deep machine learning algorithms. This Topic covers a wide range of topics, including atmospheric dynamics and physics, synoptic weather, climate variability, climate change, and remote sensing observations for weather and climate studies. Due to noise interference, TB observations reflecting rain, clouds, tropical cyclone warm core, temperature and water vapor distributions are not readily distinguishable, especial in channels above the middle troposphere (channels 4-7 and 24), whose dynamic ranges of TB are smaller than low tropospheric channels 1-3. [[9]] is an observational study that quantifies the change in amplitude of synoptic-scale surface temperature variability across the U.S., finding a surge in the surface temperature variability in the Rockies and surrounding regions but a reduction over low land regions. [Extracted from the article]

Accurate predictions of wind and other weather phenomena are essential for making informed strategic and tactical decisions in sailing. Sailors worldwide utilize current state-of-the-art forecasts, yet such forecasts are often insufficient because they do not offer the high temporal and geographic resolution required by sailors. This paper examines wind forecasting in competitive sailing and demonstrates that traditional wind forecasts can be improved for sailing events by using an integration of traditional numerical modeling and machine learning (ML) methods. Our primary objective is to provide practical and more precise wind forecasts that will give sailors a competitive edge. As a case study, we demonstrate the capabilities of our proposed methods to improve wind forecasting at Lake Kinneret, a popular sailing site. The lake wind pattern is highly influenced by the area's topographic features and is characterized by unique local and mesoscale phenomena at different times of the day. In this research, we simulate the Kinneret wind during the summers of 2015–2021 in up to one-kilometer resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model. The results are used as input for convolutional neural network (CNN) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) ML models to postprocess and improve the WRF model accuracy. These advanced ML models are trained using training datasets based on the WRF data as well as real data measured by the meteorological service, and subsequently, a validation process of the trained ML model is performed on unseen datasets against site-specific meteorological service observations. Through our experimental analysis, we demonstrate the limitations of the WRF model. It uncovers notable biases in wind direction and velocity, particularly a persistent northern bias in direction and an overestimation of wind strength. Despite its inherent limitations, this study demonstrates that the integration of ML models can potentially improve wind forecasting due to the remarkable prediction accuracy rate achieved by the CNN model, surpassing 95%, while achieving partial success for the MLP model. Furthermore, a successful CNN-based preliminary forecast was effectively generated, suggesting its potential contribution to the future development of a user-friendly tool for sailors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The physical parameterizations have important influence on model performance in precipitation simulation and prediction; however, previous investigations are seldom conducted at very high resolution over Hebei Province, which is often influenced by extreme events such as droughts and floods. In this paper, the influence of parameterization schemes and analysis nudging on precipitation simulation is investigated using the WRF (weather research and forecasting) model with many sensitivity experiments at the cumulus "gray-zone" resolution (5 km). The model performance of different sensitivity simulations is determined by a comparison with the local high-quality observational data. The results indicate that the WRF model generally reproduces the distribution of precipitation well, and the model tends to underestimate precipitation compared with the station observations. The sensitivity simulation with the Tiedtke cumulus parameterization scheme combined with the Thompson microphysics scheme shows the best model performance, with the highest temporal correlation coefficient (0.45) and lowest root mean square error (0.34 mm/day). At the same time, analysis nudging, which incorporates observational information into simulation, can improve the model performance in precipitation simulation. Further analysis indicates that the negative bias in precipitation may be associated with the negative bias in relative humidity, which in turn is associated with the positive bias in temperature and wind speed. This study highlights the role of parameterization schemes and analysis nudging in precipitation simulation and provides a valuable reference for further investigations on precipitation forecasting applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological disasters on highways can significantly reduce road traffic efficiency. Low visibility caused by dense fog is a severe meteorological disaster that greatly increases the incidence of traffic accidents on highways. Accurately predicting highway visibility and taking timely countermeasures can mitigate the impact of meteorological disasters and enhance traffic safety. This paper introduces the ATCNet model for highway visibility prediction. In ATCNet, we integrate Transformer, Capsule Networks (CapsNet), and self-attention mechanisms to leverage their respective complementary strengths. The Transformer component effectively captures the temporal characteristics of the data, while the Capsule Network efficiently decodes the spatial correlations and hierarchical structures among multidimensional meteorological elements. The self-attention mechanism, serving as the final decision-refining step, ensures that all key temporal and spatial hierarchical information is fully considered, significantly enhancing the accuracy and reliability of the predictions. This integrated approach is crucial in understanding highway visibility prediction tasks influenced by temporal variations and spatial complexities. Additionally, this study provides a self-collected publicly available dataset, WD13VIS, for meteorological research related to highway traffic in high-altitude mountain areas. This study evaluates the model's performance in terms of Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Experimental results show that our ATCNet reduces the MSE and MAE by 1.21% and 3.7% on the WD13VIS dataset compared to the latest time series prediction model architecture. On the comparative dataset WDVigoVis, our ATCNet reduces the MSE and MAE by 2.05% and 5.4%, respectively. Our model's predictions are accurate and effective, and our model shows significant progress compared to competing models, demonstrating strong universality. This model has been integrated into practical systems and has achieved positive results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to simulate Typhoon Rumbia in this paper. The sensitivity experiments were conducted with 16 different parameterization combination schemes, including four microphysics (WSM6, WSM5, Lin, and Thompson), two boundary layers (YSU and MYJ), and two cumulus convection (Kain–Fritsch and Grell–Freitas) schemes. The impacts of 16 parameterization combination schemes and the data assimilation (DA) of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) water vapor were evaluated by the simulation accuracy of typhoon track and intensity. The results show that the typhoon track and intensity are significantly influenced by parameterization schemes of cumulus and boundary layers rather than microphysics. The averaged track error of Lin_KF_Y is 104.73 km in the entire 72-h simulation period. The track errors of all the other combination schemes are higher than Lin_KF_Y. During the entire 72-h, the averaged intensity error of Thompson_GF_M is 1.36 hPa. It is the lowest among all the combination schemes. As for data assimilation, the simulation accuracy of typhoon tracks can be significantly improved by adding the GNSS water vapor. Thompson_GF_M-DA combination scheme has the lowest average track error of 45.05 km in the initial 24 h. The Lin_KF_Y-DA combination scheme exhibits an average track error of 32.17 km on the second day, 28.03 km on the third day, and 35.33 km during 72-h. The study shows that the combination of parameterization schemes and the GNSS water vapor data assimilation significantly improve the initial conditions and the accuracy of typhoon predictions. The study results contribute to the selection of appropriate combinations of physical parameterization schemes for the WRF-ARW model in the mid-latitude region of the western Pacific coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased computing power has made it possible to run simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical model in high spatial resolution. However, running high-resolution simulations requires a higher-detail mapping of landforms, land use, and land cover. Often, higher-resolution data have limited coverage or availability. This paper presents the feasibility of using CORINE Land Cover (CLC) land use and land cover data and alternative high-resolution global coverage land use/land cover (LULC) data from Copernicus Global Land Service Land Cover Map (CGLS-LC100) V2.0 in high-resolution WRF simulations (100 × 100 m). Global LULC data with a resolution of 100 m are particularly relevant for areas not covered by CLC. This paper presents the method developed by the authors for reclassifying land cover data from CGLS-LC100 to MODIS land use classes with defined parameters in the WRF model and describes the procedure for their implementation into the model. The obtained simulation results of the basic meteorological parameters from the WRF simulation using CLC, CGLS-LC100 and default geographical data from MODIS were compared to observations from 13 meteorological stations in the Warsaw area. The research has indicated noticeable changes in the forecasts of temperature, relative humidity wind speed, and direction after using higher-resolution LULC data. The verification results show a significant difference in weather predictions in terms of CLC and CGLS-LC100 LULC data implementation. Due to the fact that better results were obtained for CLC simulations than for CGLS-LC100, it is suggested that CLC data are first used for simulations in numerical weather prediction models and to use CGLS-LC100 data when the area is outside of CLC coverage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, air pollutants have become an important issue in meteorological research and an indispensable part of air quality forecasting. To improve the accuracy of the Chinese Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment (CUACE) model's air pollutant forecasts, this paper proposes a solution based on ensemble learning. Firstly, the forecast results of the CUACE model and the corresponding monitoring data are extracted. Then, using feature analysis, we screen the correction factors that affect air quality. The random forest algorithm, XGBoost algorithm, and GBDT algorithm are employed to correct the prediction results of PM2.5, PM10, and O3. To further optimize the model, we introduce the grid search method. Finally, we compare and analyze the correction effect and determine the best correction model for the three air pollutants. This approach enhances the precision of the CUACE model's forecast and improves our understanding of the factors that affect air quality. The experimental results show that the model has a better prediction error correction effect than the traditional machine learning statistical model. After the algorithm correction, the prediction accuracy of PM2.5 and PM10 is increased by 60%, and the prediction accuracy of O3 is increased by 70%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate changes, particularly extreme weather events, can directly or indirectly affect freshwater availability and food production, and cause disease outbreaks, floods and droughts. Using the advanced research version of the weather research and forecasting model (ARWv3) and a hydrostatic wind speed change equation, Liu et al. [[5]] assessed the effects of four CPSs on a 10 m wind speed simulation over mainland China in the summer of 2003. It was found that the IAP climate model creditably reproduced the spatial patterns of the first three dominant modes of summer rainfall in Thailand, and that the correlation between the observed rainfall anomalies and the Niño 3.4 index could be reproduced through the use of the IAP model. Advanced climate simulations and observations can improve the accuracy of climate change predictions and long-term trends, which can mitigate the impacts of climate events on social and economic development, as well as human lives. [Extracted from the article]

This paper selects the case of the Atlantic hurricane "Michael" in 2018 to evaluate the accuracy of the GOES-16 atmospheric temperature profile during the hurricane and its effect on forecasting. Based on the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, the assimilation of GOES-16 atmospheric temperature-profile products was achieved by using three-dimensional variational (3DVar) and the ensemble transform Kalman filter/three-dimensional variational (ETKF/3DVAR) hybrid system (Hybrid) systems. And the impact of geostationary satellite GOES-16 atmospheric temperature-profile data assimilation on a hurricane forecast is evaluated. The results show that, during the hurricane, the root mean square errors of the GOES-16 atmospheric temperature profile are all within 2 k at the height of 200–1000 hPa, and the quality of the data is generally good. Assimilating the GOES-16 atmospheric temperature-profile data can indeed effectively improve the analysis increment and improve the prediction results. The assimilation increment obtained by the hybrid system has obvious "flow-dependent" characteristics, which can reasonably improve the initial field of the model. Its temperature increment has an obvious spiral structure, which is in line with the characteristics of the hurricane, and the adjustment of the wind field and geopotential height field is also more beneficial to the development of the hurricane. It has a positive impact on the forecast of track, intensity, and precipitation, and the hybrid system is improved more obviously. In addition, from the RMSE of the analysis field and the forecast field relative to the observation data of different elements, the hybrid system is superior to the 3DVar system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meteorological drought (MDr) causes considerable economic losses in many countries, including in relation to agriculture. To examine the diversity of seasonal meteorological drought in Poland, the study uses monthly precipitation sums in the period from March to November, collected from 74 ground-based meteorological stations in 1951–2020. The paper defines meteorological drought on the basis of the standardized precipitation index in three seasons (SPI-3) and differentiates three degrees of drought intensity: extreme, severe and moderate. The study also calculates the size of Poland's area affected by meteorological drought (AAMDr) and determines the relationship between AAMDr and SPI-3. MDr in Poland occurred more frequently in spring and autumn (every 4–5 years) than in summer (every 7 years). In the areas affected by extreme drought, precipitation was below the average, mainly ≤50% of the climatic norm, and air temperature values were below or above the average of the climatic norm, mainly ranging from −1.0 to 1.0 °C. A significant negative correlation between AAMDr and SPI-3 indices was found. The obtained results could be useful for managing climatic risk and developing regional and local agriculture adaptation plans aimed at mitigating the effects of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ground-based cloud images contain a wealth of cloud information and are an important part of meteorological research. However, in practice, ground cloud images must be segmented and classified to obtain the cloud volume, cloud type and cloud coverage. Existing methods ignore the relationship between cloud segmentation and classification, and usually only one of these is studied. Accordingly, our paper proposes a novel method for the joint classification and segmentation of cloud images, called CloudY-Net. Compared to the basic Y-Net framework, which extracts feature maps from the central layer, we extract feature maps from four different layers to obtain more useful information to improve the classification accuracy. These feature maps are combined to produce a feature vector to train the classifier. Additionally, the multi-head self-attention mechanism is implemented during the fusion process to enhance the information interaction among features further. A new module called Cloud Mixture-of-Experts (C-MoE) is proposed to enable the weights of each feature layer to be automatically learned by the model, thus improving the quality of the fused feature representation. Correspondingly, experiments are conducted on the open multi-modal ground-based cloud dataset (MGCD). The results demonstrate that the proposed model significantly improves the classification accuracy compared to classical networks and state-of-the-art algorithms, with classification accuracy of 88.58%. In addition, we annotate 4000 images in the MGCD for cloud segmentation and produce a cloud segmentation dataset called MGCD-Seg. Then, we obtain a 96.55 mIoU on MGCD-Seg, validating the efficacy of our method in ground-based cloud imagery segmentation and classification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lightning is an important threat to life and properties and its forecast is important for several applications. In this paper, we show the performance of the "dynamic lightning scheme" for next-day total strokes forecast. The predictions were compared against strokes recorded by a ground observational network for a forecast period spanning one year. Specifically, a total of 162 case studies were selected between 1 March 2020 and 28 February 2021, characterized by at least 3000 observed strokes over Italy. The events span a broad range of lightning intensity from about 3000 to 600,000 strokes in one day: 69 cases occurred in summer, 46 in fall, 18 in winter, and 29 in spring. The meteorological driver was the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (version 4.1) and we focused on the next-day forecast. Strokes were simulated by adding three extra variables to WRF, namely, the potential energies for positive and negative cloud to ground flashes and intracloud strokes. Each potential energy is advected by WRF, it is built by the electrification processes occurring into the cloud, and it is dissipated by lightning. Observed strokes were remapped onto the WRF model grid with a 3 km horizontal resolution for comparison with the strokes forecast. Results are discussed for the whole year and for different seasons. Moreover, statistics are presented for the land and the sea. In general, the results of this study show that lightning forecast with the dynamic lightning scheme and WRF model was successful for Italy; nevertheless, a careful inspection of forecast performance is necessary for tuning the scheme. This tuning is dependent on the season. A numerical experiment changing the microphysics scheme used in WRF shows the sensitivity of the results according to the choice of the microphysics scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind speed forecasting is difficult not only because of the influence of atmospheric dynamics but also for the impossibility of providing an accurate prediction with traditional statistical forecasting models that work by discovering an inner relationship within historical records. This paper develops a self-adaptive (SA) auto-regressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) model that is optimized very-short-term by the chaotic particle swarm optimization (CPSO) algorithm, known as the SA-ARIMA-CPSO approach, for wind speed prediction. The ARIMAX model chooses the wind speed result from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulation as an exogenous input variable. Further, an SA strategy is applied to the ARIMAX process. When new information is available, the model process can be updated adaptively with parameters optimized by the CPSO algorithm. The proposed SA-ARIMA-CPSO approach enables the forecasting process to update training information and model parameters intelligently and adaptively. As tested using the 15-min wind speed data collected from a wind farm in Northern China, the improved method has the best performance compared with several other models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global climate is changing. Predicting the impacts this will have on buildings is the first step in the process of finding suitable building adaptation measures. Future climate adaptation of buildings and infrastructure is a growing field of research, relying on both socio-economical and meteorological research for input values to the simulation models. Models producing hourly future weather data rely on global climate models which are based on emission scenarios made from assumptions of future political, social, and economic developments. Accounting for the uncertainties from these underlying models as much as possible, and communicating the uncertainties in the results, is obviously paramount for reliable conclusions from the building simulation models. This paper is a scoping review, investigating how 132 studies treat and communicate the string of uncertainties from underlying models connected to future weather file generation in the scientific literature on building adaptation research. The findings suggest that climate-model-induced uncertainties are often under-communicated, due to either insufficient analysis or neglect. The studies that included the most comprehensive analyses of the uncertainties frequently concluded that treatment of these is important for the reliability of the results, and neglecting this could lead to misleading conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The amount of solar irradiation that reaches Earth's surface is a key quantity of solar energy research and is difficult to predict, because it is directly affected by the changing constituents of the atmosphere. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) model performs computational simulations of the evolution of the entire atmosphere to forecast the future state of the atmosphere based on the current state. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is a mesoscale NWP. WRF solar is an augmented feature of WRF, which has been improved and configured specifically for solar energy applications. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of the high resolution WRF solar model and compare the results with the low resolution WRF solar and Global Forecasting System (GFS) models. We investigate the performance of WRF solar for a high-resolution spatial domain of resolution 1 × 1 km and compare the results with a 3 × 3 km domain and GFS. The results show error metrices rMAE {23.14%, 24.51%, 27.75%} and rRMSE {35.69%, 36.04%, 37.32%} for high resolution WRF solar, coarse domain WRF solar and GFS, respectively. This confirms that high resolution WRF solar performs better than coarse domain and in general. WRF solar demonstrates statistically significant improvement over GFS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the aim of understanding the impact of air pollution on human health and ecosystems in the tropical Andes region (TAR), we aim to couple the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with the chemical transport models (CTM) Long-Term Ozone Simulation and European Operational Smog (LOTOS–EUROS), at high and regional resolutions, with and without assimilation. The factors set for WRF, are based on the optimized estimates of climate and weather in cities and urban heat islands in the TAR region. It is well known in the weather research and forecasting field, that the uncertainty of non-linear models is a major issue, thus making a sensitivity analysis essential. Consequently, this paper seeks to quantify the performance of the WRF model in the presence of disturbances to the initial conditions (IC), for an arbitrary set of state-space variables (pressure and temperature), simulating a disruption in the inputs of the model. To this aim, we considered three distributions over the error term: a normal standard distribution, a normal distribution, and an exponential distribution. We analyze the sensitivity of the outputs of the WRF model by employing non-parametric and robust statistical techniques, such as kernel distribution estimates, rank tests, and bootstrap. The results show that the WRF model is sensitive in time, space, and vertical levels to changes in the IC. Finally, we demonstrate that the error distribution of the output differs from the error distribution induced over the input data, especially for Gaussian distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increase in the frequency of atmospheric hazards in a changing climate has attracted interest in the study of regional features of mesoscale convective systems and trends of lightning activity. Severe convective storms are the most destructive weather events causing substantial damage and fatalities. In this paper, we analyze general trends in the lightning activity in the Upper Volga region and identify the particular features of a severe thunderstorm on 13–14 July 2020. The analysis of the annual variability of the lightning activity in the Upper Volga region, carried out according to the World-Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) data, has shown that the total number of discharges during the convective seasons of 2016–2021 increased. For the convective season of 2020, the daily number of discharges in the neighborhood of Nizhny Novgorod (the center of the region) is calculated according to the WWLLN data and the electric field mill (EFM) measurements. It is revealed that the most powerful (per convective season) thunderstorms have a number of similarities both according to observations and numerical simulation. The thunderstorm on 13–14 July was numerically simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in combination with calculations of the electric parameters (such as electric potential and intracloud electric field). The simulations were carried out using two parametrizations of microphysical processes to reveal the features associated with allowance for aerosol particles. The data from the meteorological radar and WWLLN were used to validate the radar reflectivity simulation results of the WRF model. Some features of the thunderstorm evolution characteristic for each of the microphysical parametrizations were identified. In general, the non-aerosol parametrization gives a more correct description of the development of severe thunderstorms in the Upper Volga region (with the exception of the final stage of the convective system development). For a convective event to have the required duration (more than 6 h), aerosol particles should be taken into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations from a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounding interferometer such as the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and the Cross-Track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) are crucial to numerical weather prediction (NWP). By measuring radiance at the top of the atmosphere using thousands of channels, these observations convey accurate atmospheric information to the initial condition through data assimilation (DA) schemes. The massive data volume has pushed the community to develop novel approaches to reduce the number of assimilated channels while retaining as much information content as possible. Thus, channel-selection schemes have become widely accepted in every NWP center. Two significant limitations of channel-selection schemes are (1) the deficiency in retaining the observational information content and (2) the higher cross-channel correlation in the observational error (R) matrix. This paper introduces a hyperspectral IR observation DA scheme in the principal component (PC) space. Four-month performance comparison case studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) as a forecast module between PC-score assimilation and the selected-channel assimilation experiment show that the PC-score assimilation scheme can reduce the initial condition's root-mean-squared error for temperature and water vapor compared to the channel-selection scheme and thus improve the forecasting of precipitation and high-impact weather. Case studies using the Unified Forecast System Short-Range Weather (UFS-SRW) application as forecast module also indicate that the positive impact can be retained among different NWP models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the Morrison Two-Moment Scheme coupled with the non-inductive electrification mechanism and the discharge parameterization scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a thunderstorm process was simulated by using the WRF electrical coupling model in Sichuan Basin on 21 July 2019, in this paper. Through analysis and discussion of the macroscopic and microscopic characteristics of the thunderstorm activity and the microphysical and dynamic processes, respectively, the study shows that the simulation results of radar echo and lightning are well consistent with the meteorological observation which indicates the WRF model has a certain ability to reproduce the thunderstorm process in Sichuan Basin, there is a good correspondence between the main electrification area and the distribution position of the ice-phase particles in the thunderstorm. The simulated charge structure of the thunderstorm is that the graupel particles are mainly negatively charged, the ice crystals and snow particles are mainly positively charged, and the thunderstorm shows a dipole charge structure with an upper positive charge center and a lower negative charge center. It also shows that the updrafts greatly influence ice-graupel and snow-graupel collisions during the thunderstorm discharge process, the higher the updraft speed, the stronger the electrical activity, and, especially, the stronger the discharge process of ice-particle collisions and separation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explored the changes of six significant pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO) in Jilin City during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in 2022, and compared them with the same period of previous years to analyze the impact of anthropogenic emissions on the concentration of pollutants; The Weather Research and Forecasting Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF–CMAQ) model was used to evaluate the effect of meteorological factors on pollutant concentration. The results showed that except for O3, the concentrations of the other five pollutants decreased significantly, with a range of 21–47%, during the lockdown period caused by the government's shutdown and travel restrictions. Compared with the same period in 2021, the decrease of PM2.5 was only 25% of PM10. That was because there was still a large amount of PM2.5 produced by coal-fired heating during the blockade period, which made the decrease of PM2.5 more minor. A heavy pollution event caused by adverse meteorological conditions was found during the lockdown period, indicating that only controlling artificial emissions cannot eliminate the occurrence of severe pollution events. The WRF–CMAQ results showed that the lower pollutant concentration in 2022 was not only caused by the reduction of anthropogenic emissions but also related to the influence of favorable meteorological factors (higher planetary boundary layer thickness, higher wind speed, and higher temperature). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the Advanced Weather Research Forecast model (WRF-ARW) is used to investigate the potential impacts of assimilating the FengYun-4A (FY-4A) Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS) long-wave temperature sounding channel data on the prediction of Typhoon In-Fa (2021). In addition, a series of data assimilation experiments are conducted to demonstrate the added value of the FY-4A/GIIRS data assimilation for typhoon forecasts. It is shown that the higher spectral resolution and broader coverage of GIIRS radiance data can positively impact the model analysis and forecasts with larger temperature and moisture increments at the initial time of simulations, thus producing a better simulation for the typhoon's warm core aloft, vortex wind structure, and spiral rainfall band. Moreover, the assimilation of the GIIRS data can also lead to better storm steering flows and, consequently, better typhoon track forecasts. Overall, the assimilation of FY-4A/GIIRS temperature sounding channel data shows some added values to improve the track and storm structure forecasts of Typhoon In-Fa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea surface temperature (SST) plays an important role in the typhoon forecast. By comparison, satellite retrieval products can provide more accurate SST data than reanalysis data in typhoon simulations. However, the effect of SST data from Chinese Fengyun-3 (FY-3) satellites on typhoon simulation hasn't been evaluated yet. In this paper, the impact of FY-3D SST retrieval data with ascending and descending orbits on the forecast of typhoon In-Fa, 2021, is investigated with the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. Compared to the control experiments with SST data from Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data, the replacement experiments with FY-3D SST data significantly improve the forecast of typhoon central sea level pressure, track, and precipitation. Especially, the SST from the descending orbit satellite data provides the optimal track and intensity forecast, which are verified against the best track data from the Japan Meteorological Agency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake Taihu, a typical shallow lake in eastern China, was selected for study in this paper. Methods: Considering that the accurate parameterization scheme is the key to a lake breeze simulation, then based on Lake Taihu's characteristics, the setting of parameters of the lakes' scheme was adjusted in the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) lake model. Results: By comparing the observed values of the mesoscale flux platform of Lake Taihu from June to August 2012, the results showed that the model significantly improved the simulation. The root-mean-square error of the simulated and observed comparison of the latent heat fluxes over the lake improved from 42.77 to 89.00. The adjusted WRF-Lake model better presents the characteristics of Lake Taihu's lake wind. The different lake depth cases showed that the maximum difference in surface temperature between the shallow lake case and the deep lake case reached 9.9 °C, and the average was about 3 °C. Conclusion: Compared with the deep lake case, the shallow lake case stimulated less lake breeze circulation with a shorter time and smaller range in the horizontal and vertical directions. The lake breeze frequency, simulated by the shallow lake case, was 18.5%, while for the deep lake case, it reached 38%. These simulations of lake breeze contribute to understanding the influence of a lake's depth on lake breeze characteristics and the accurate parameterization scheme of the inland shallow lakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout the years, wildfires have negatively impacted ecological systems and urban areas. Hence, reinforcing territorial risk management strategies against wildfires is essential. In this study, we built an early alert system (EAS) with two different Machine Learning (ML) techniques to calculate the meteorological conditions of two Colombian areas: (i) A 3D convolutional neural net capable of learning from satellite data and (ii) a convolutional network to bias-correct the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model output. The results were used to quantify the daily Fire Weather Index and were coupled with the outcomes from a land cover analysis conducted through a Naïve-Bayes classifier to estimate the probability of wildfire occurrence. These results, combined with an assessment of global vulnerability in both locations, allow the construction of daily risk maps in both areas. On the other hand, a set of short-term preventive and corrective measures were suggested to public authorities to implement, after an early alert prediction of a possible future wildfire. Finally, Soil Management Practices are proposed to tackle the medium- and long-term causes of wildfire development, with the aim of reducing vulnerability and promoting soil protection. In conclusion, this paper creates an EAS for wildfires, based on novel ML techniques and risk maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface ozone is one of six air pollutants designated as harmful by National Ambient Air Quality Standards because it can adversely impact human health and the environment. Thus, ozone forecasting is a critical task that can help people avoid dangerously high ozone concentrations. Conventional numerical approaches, as well as data-driven forecasting approaches, have been studied for ozone forecasting. Data-driven forecasting models, in particular, have gained momentum with the introduction of machine learning advancements. We consider planetary boundary layer (PBL) height as a new input feature for data-driven ozone forecasting models. PBL has been shown to impact ozone concentrations, making it an important factor in ozone forecasts. In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of utilization of PBL height on the performance of surface ozone forecasts. We present both surface ozone forecasting models, based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) and bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) models. These two models forecast hourly ozone concentrations for an upcoming 24-h period using two types of input data, such as measurement data and PBL height. We consider the predicted values of PBL height obtained from the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, since it is difficult to gather actual PBL measurements. We evaluate two ozone forecasting models in terms of index of agreement (IOA), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE). Results showed that the MLP-based and bidirectional LSTM-based models yielded lower MAE and RMSE when considering forecasted PBL height, but there was no significant changes in IOA when compared with models in which no forecasted PBL data were used. This result suggests that utilizing forecasted PBL height can improve the forecasting performance of data-driven prediction models for surface ozone concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A precise air pollution forecast is the basis for targeted pollution control and sustained improvements in air quality. It is desirable and crucial to select the most suitable model for air pollution forecasting (APF). To achieve this goal, this paper provides a comprehensive evaluation of performances of different models in simulating the most common air pollutants (e.g., PM2.5, NO2, SO2, and CO) in Guangzhou (23.13° N, 113.26° E), China. To simulate temporal variations of the above-mentioned air pollutant concentrations in Guangzhou in September and October 2020, we use a numerical forecasting model (i.e., the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem)) and two artificial intelligence models (i.e., the back propagation neural network (BPNN) model and the long short-term memory (LSTM) model). WRF-Chem is also used to simulate the meteorological elements (e.g., the 2 m temperature (T2), 2 m relative humidity (RH), and 10 m wind speed and direction (WS, WD)). In order to investigate the simulation accuracies of classical APF models, we simultaneously compare the simulations of the WRF-Chem, BPNN, and LSTM models to ground truth observations. Comparative assessment results show that WRF-Chem simulated air pollutant (i.e., PM2.5, NO2, SO2, and CO) concentrations have the best correlations with ground measurements (i.e., Pearson correlation coefficient R = 0.88, 0.73, 0.61, and 0.61, respectively). Furthermore, to evaluate model performance in terms of accuracy and stability, the normalized mean bias (NMB, %) and mean fractional bias (MFB, %) are adopted as the standard performance metrics (SPMs) proposed by Boylan et al. The comparison results indicate that when simulating PM2.5, WRF-Chem was more effective than the BPNN but less effective than the LSTM. While simulating concentrations of NO2, SO2, and CO, the WRF-Chem model performed better than the BPNN and LSTM models. With regards to WRF-Chem, the NMBs and MFBs for the PM2.5 simulations are, respectively, 6.49% and 0.02%, –11.96% and –0.031% for NO2, 7.93% and 0.019% for CO, and 5.04% and 0.012% for SO2. Our results suggest that WRF-Chem has superior performance and better accuracy than the NN-based prediction models, making it a promising and useful tool to accurately predict and forecast regional air pollutant concentrations on a city scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to global warming and urbanization, high-temperature events—which frequently occur in cities—are presenting an increasing threat to the daily lives of human beings. In coastal cities, sea breezes can cool the near surface and improve the urban environment to some extent. Understanding the cooling characteristics of sea breeze on the urban environment is informative for improving and mitigating the urban heat island (UHI) effect. In this paper, we analyze the basic characteristics of the timing of the cooling effect of sea breeze in urban summer based on the long-term multi-point measurements of air temperatures. Additionally, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to show the influence of sea breeze on cities in terms of the cooling action time. The whole process is reproduced based on a time distribution map created using the results of the WRF simulation. The measured temperature and WRF simulation results are also evaluated with observations. The results show little difference between the two. The analysis of the distribution map shows that the sea breeze gradually penetrates inland from coastal areas. It can therefore be concluded that the sea breeze blows at different speeds in different areas. Our results show that the sea breeze is weak in places near the coast, while it is significantly stronger around inland rivers. Moreover, in urban areas that are far from inland rivers, the speed of the sea breeze is evenly distributed in space. The spatial pattern of sea breeze retreat time and arrival time is reversed: retreats happen earlier in inland areas. The duration of the sea breeze shows a significantly decreasing trend from the coast to inland, with the longest duration at the southern end of the urban area near the coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind is a renewable and green energy source that is vital for sustainable human development. Wind variability implies that wind power is random, intermittent, and volatile. For the reliable, stable, and secure operation of an electrical grid incorporating wind power systems, a multi-hour ahead wind power forecasting system comprising a physics-based model, a multi-criteria decision making scheme, and two artificial intelligence models was proposed. Specifically, a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to produce wind speed forecasts. A technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) scheme was employed to construct a 5-in-1 (ensemble) WRF model relying on 1334 initial ensemble members. Two adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models were utilised to correct the wind speed forecasts and determine a power curve model converting the improved wind speed forecasts to wind power forecasts. Moreover, three common statistics-based forecasting models were chosen as references for comparing their predictive performance with that of the proposed WRF-TOPSIS-ANFIS model. Using a set of historical wind data obtained from a wind farm in China, the WRF-TOPSIS-ANFIS model was shown to provide good wind speed and power forecasts for 30-min to 24-h time horizons. This paper demonstrates that the novel forecasting system has excellent predictive performance and is of practical relevance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 12–13 February 2016, a record-breaking rain–snow event during the passage of an extratropical cyclone occurred in Shandong Province, China, in which the 24 h precipitation totals at 48 of 123 national meteorological stations in Shandong Province broke their historical records for the month of February, and a further 25 stations recorded their second-largest February totals. This paper investigates the evolution of the mesoscale precipitation areas and the mechanisms responsible for the formation, organization, and maintenance of the mesoscale precipitation areas, using FY-2G satellite data, Doppler radar observations, and a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model numerical simulation at 4 km grid spacing. The main results show that the comma head cloud of the cyclone developed from four echo strips. Intense precipitation was related to the mesoscale elongated precipitation areas (EPAs) of reflectivity >30 dBZ within the stratiform clouds. The formation and development of the EPAs coincided with the activities of a low-level shear line and an associated increase in frontogenesis. The simulated EPAs occurred in an environment of conditional instability (CI), inertial instability (II), and conditional symmetric instability (CSI). In the initial stage of the elongated rainfall areas (ERAs), rainfall was initiated by the frontal forcing in the presence of elevated CI, and II was generated by upright convection. During the development stage of the ERAs, the CI was absent, and condensational heating was enhanced. II occurred in the absence of upright convection, and it seems likely that the presence of II is a diabatic signature of the precipitation itself. Upper-level II intensified the convective systems by enhancing outflow aloft, and II caused the ERAs to organize. Thus, II played an important role in the organization and maintenance of the ERAs. The frontogenesis provided the dynamic condition for the release of the instability. Enhanced CSI and II intensified slantwise convection, and combining with enhanced frontogenesis, intensified the ERAs. The echo, ascent, and frontogenesis in snowfall areas were weaker than those in rainfall areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study aims to demonstrate the effects of horizontal grid resolution on the simulated pollution concentration fields over Bulgaria. The computer simulations are performed with a set of models used worldwide—the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)—the meteorological preprocessor, the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ)—chemical transport model, Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE)—emission model. The large-scale (background) meteorological data used in the study were taken from the 'NCEP Global Analysis Data' with a horizontal resolution of 1° × 1°. Using the 'nesting' capabilities of the WRF and CMAQ models, a resolution of 9 km was achieved for the territory of Bulgaria by sequentially solving the task in several consecutive nested areas. Three cases are considered in this paper: Case 1: The computer simulations result from the domain with a horizontal resolution (both of the emission source description and the grid) of 27 km.; Case 2: The computer simulations result from the domain with a horizontal resolution (both of the emission source description and the grid) of 9 km.; Case 3: A hybrid case with the computer simulations performed with a grid resolution of 9 km, but with emissions such as in the 27 km × 27 km domain. The simulations were performed, for all the three cases, for the period 2007–2014 year, thus creating an ensemble large and comprehensive enough to reflect the most typical atmospheric conditions with their typical recurrence. The numerical experiments showed the significant impact of the grid resolution not only in the pollution concentration pattern but also in the demonstrated generalized characteristics. Averaged over a large territory (Bulgaria); however, the performances for cases one and two are quite similar. Bulgaria is a country with a complex topography and with several considerably large point sources. Thus, some of the conclusions made, though based on Bulgarian-specific experiments, may be of general interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to present the results of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model of solar radiation for moderate climatic zones. This analysis covered the area of northeastern Germany. Due to very unfavorable solar energy conditions in this region for at least 1/3 of the year, we decided to select the dates with the most representative conditions: passing warm fronts, cold fronts, and occluded fronts (two cases each). As the reference, two cloudless conditions during high-pressure situations were chosen. Two different shortwave radiation schemes—Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for general circulation model (RRTMG) and Dudhia—were tested. The obtained results were compared with in situ data measured at Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) stations and then with European Medium-Range Weather Forecast reanalysis (ERA5) data. The results showed that for high-pressure situations, the mean correlations with measured data were above 90%. The Dudhia scheme, in addition to the expected good results for the high-pressure situation, showed better results than RRTMG for the warm and cold fronts as well. The forecast using the RRTMG scheme gave the best results for the occluded front, which were also better than those of the ERA5 model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) is gaining more and more influence in traditional energy and electricity markets in Europe and around the world. When modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution, energy systems analysts frequently use data generated by numerical weather models as input since there is no spatial inclusive and comprehensive measurement data available. However, the suitability of such model data depends on the research questions at hand and should be inspected individually. This paper focuses on new methodologies to carry out a performance evaluation of solar irradiation data provided by a numerical weather model when investigating photovoltaic feed-in and effects on the electricity grid. Suitable approaches of time series analysis are researched from literature and applied to both model and measurement data. The findings and limits of these approaches are illustrated and a new set of validation indicators is presented. These novel indicators complement the assessment by measuring relevant key figures in energy systems analysis: e.g., gradients in energy supply, maximum values and volatility. Thus, the results of this paper contribute to the scientific community of energy systems analysts and researchers who aim at modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution using weather model data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we performed an analysis of the 500 most relevant scientific articles published since 2018, concerning machine learning methods in the field of climate and numerical weather prediction using the Google Scholar search engine. The most common topics of interest in the abstracts were identified, and some of them examined in detail: in numerical weather prediction research—photovoltaic and wind energy, atmospheric physics and processes; in climate research—parametrizations, extreme events, and climate change. With the created database, it was also possible to extract the most commonly examined meteorological fields (wind, precipitation, temperature, pressure, and radiation), methods (Deep Learning, Random Forest, Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machine, and XGBoost), and countries (China, USA, Australia, India, and Germany) in these topics. Performing critical reviews of the literature, authors are trying to predict the future research direction of these fields, with the main conclusion being that machine learning methods will be a key feature in future weather forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the weather generator (WG) used by the empirical statistical downscaling method WETTREG (weather situation-based regionalization method (in German: WETTerlagen-basierte REGionalisierungsmethode)), is described. It belongs to the class of multi-site parametric models that aim at the representation of the spatial dependence among weather variables with conditioning on exogenous atmospheric predictors. The development of the WETTREGWG was motivated by (i) the requirement of climate impact modelers to obtain input data sets that are consistent and can be produced in a relatively economic way and (ii) the well-sustained hypothesis that large scale atmospheric features are well reproduced by climate models and can be used as a link to regional climate. The WG operates at daily temporal resolution. The conditioning factor is the temporal development of the frequency distribution of circulation patterns. Following a brief description of the strategy of classifying circulation patterns that have a strong link to regional climate, the bulk of this paper is devoted to a description of the WG itself. This includes aspects, such as the utilized building blocks, seasonality or the methodology with which a signature of climate change is imprinted onto the generated time series. Further attention is given to particularities of the WG's conditioning processes, as well as to extremes, areal representativity and the interface of WGs and user requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ground-based weather radar can observe a wide range with a high spatial and temporal resolution. They are beneficial to meteorological research and services by providing valuable information. Recent weather radar data related research has focused on applying machine learning and deep learning to solve complicated problems. It is a well-known fact that an adequate amount of data is a positively necessary condition in machine learning and deep learning. Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have received extensive attention for their remarkable data generation capacity, with a fascinating competitive structure having been proposed since. Consequently, a massive number of variants have been proposed; which model is adequate to solve the given problem is an inevitable concern. In this paper, we propose exploring the problem of radar image synthesis and evaluating different GANs with authentic radar observation results. The experimental results showed that the improved Wasserstein GAN is more capable of generating similar radar images while achieving higher structural similarity results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dust and air pollution events are increasingly occurring around the Taklimakan Desert in southern Xinjiang and in the urban areas of northern Xinjiang. Predicting such events is crucial for the advancement, growth, and prosperity of communities. This study evaluated a dust and air pollution forecasting system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the China Meteorological Administration Chemistry Environment (WRF-CUACE) model using ground and satellite observations. The results showed that the forecasting system accurately predicted the formation, development, and termination of dust events. It demonstrated good capability for predicting the evolution and spatial distribution of dust storms, although it overestimated dust intensity. Specifically, the correlation coefficient (R) between simulated and observed PM10 was up to 0.85 with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 721.36 µg·m−3 during dust storm periods. During air pollution events, the forecasting system displayed notable variations in predictive accuracy across various urban areas. The simulated trends of PM2.5 and the Air Quality Index (AQI) closely aligned with the actual observations in Ürümqi. The R for simulated and observed PM2.5 concentrations at 24 and 48 h intervals were 0.60 and 0.54, respectively, with MAEs of 28.92 µg·m−3 and 29.10 µg·m−3, respectively. The correlation coefficients for simulated and observed AQIs at 24 and 48 h intervals were 0.79 and 0.70, respectively, with MAEs of 24.21 and 27.56, respectively. The evolution of the simulated PM10 was consistent with observations despite relatively high concentrations. The simulated PM2.5 concentrations in Changji and Shihezi were notably lower than those observed, resulting in a lower AQI. For PM10, the simulation–observation error was relatively small; however, the trends were inconsistent. Future research should focus on optimizing model parameterization schemes and emission source data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal upwelling is of particular importance in the western Iberian Peninsula, considering its socioeconomic impact on the region. Therefore, it is of crucial interest to evaluate how climate change, by modifying wind patterns, might influence its intensity and seasonality. Given the limited spatial extension of the area, it is essential to use high-resolution data. Thus, the weather research and forecasting model was used to dynamically downscale data from a multi-model ensemble from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, representing the latest climate projections. Two shared socioeconomic pathways, 2–4.5 and 5–8.5 scenarios, were considered. The results show that climate change will not modify the upwelling seasonality in the area, where the months from April to September represent the period of highest intensity. Conversely, this seasonality might be exacerbated throughout the 21st century, as upwelling is expected to strengthen during these months and decrease during others. Additionally, coastal upwelling shows the highest increase at the northerner locations of the western Iberian Peninsula, resulting in a homogenization of its intensity along this coast. These changes may result from the anticipated intensification and northward shift of the Azores High. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An accurate forecast of typhoon tracks is crucial for disaster warning and mitigation. However, existing numerical weather prediction models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, still exhibit significant errors in track forecasts. This study aims to improve forecast accuracy by correcting WRF-forecasted tracks using deep learning models, including Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) + Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) + Wide and Deep Learning (WDL), BiLSTM + Convolutional Gated Recurrent Unit (ConvGRU) + WDL, and BiLSTM + ConvLSTM + Extreme Deep Factorization Machine (xDeepFM), with a comparison to the Kalman Filter. The results demonstrate that the BiLSTM + ConvLSTM + WDL model reduces the 72 h track prediction error (TPE) from 255.18 km to 159.23 km, representing a 37.6% improvement over the original WRF model, and exhibits significant advantages across all evaluation metrics, particularly in key indicators such as Bias2, Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Sequence. The decomposition of MSE further validates the importance of the BiLSTM, ConvLSTM, WDL, and Temporal Normalization (TN) layers in enhancing the model's spatio-temporal feature-capturing ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study is concerned with the rate of evaporation from porous rock, including the second stage of evaporation characterised by the existence of a dry surface layer separated from the wet capillary zone by a sharp evaporation front. The main objective is to investigate the relationship between the depth of evaporation front and the rate of evaporation as the drying process progresses, and to compare measured evaporation rate with the corresponding calculated values. Sandstone core samples saturated with water were allowed to dry naturally under room conditions, while the changes in the evaporation rate and the depth of evaporation front, among other quantities, were measured. We demonstrate that the evaporation rate can be very accurately determined from the depth of the evaporation front and the ambient air temperature and relative humidity using Fick's law for water-vapor diffusion. During the second stage of evaporation, the diffusion flux through the dry surface layer is computed using the water-vapor diffusion coefficient of the rock, determined from a separate wet cup experiment. In order to cover the first stage of evaporation, an additional parameter characterising the diffusion layer of air above the surface is required, either determined by the best fit to the measured evaporation rates, or adopted from previous studies. The calculated evaporation rate was in good agreement with measurements, with Pearson correlation coefficient 0.98 and relative error of the calculations averaging 15% over the evaporation front depths ranging from 0 to 29 mm. A workflow for determining the evaporation rate from sandstone outcrops is suggested, along with possible applications in sandstone weathering research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An investigation is undertaken to explore a sudden quasi-linear precipitation and gale event that transpired in the afternoon of 30 May 2024 over Beijing. It was situated at the southwestern periphery of a double-center low-vortex system, where a moisture-rich belt efficiently channeled abundant warm, humid air northward from the south. The interplay between dynamical lifting, convergent airflow-induced uplift, and the amplifying effects of the northern mountainous terrain's topography creates favorable conditions that support the development and persistence of quasi-linear convective precipitation, accompanied by gale-force winds at the surface. The study also analyzes the impacts of five microphysics schemes (Lin, WSM6, Goddard, Morrison, and WDM6) employed in a weather research and forecasting (WRF) numerical model, with which the simulated rainfall and radar reflectivity are compared against ground-based rain gauge network and weather radar observations, respectively. Simulations with the five microphysics schemes demonstrate commendable skills in replicating the macroscopic quasi-linear pattern of the event. Among the schemes assessed, the WSM6 scheme exhibits its superior agreement with radar observations. The Morrison scheme demonstrates superior performance in predicting cumulative rainfall. Nevertheless, five microphysics schemes exhibit limitations in predicting the rainfall amount, the rainfall duration, and the rainfall area, with a discernible lag of approximately 30 min in predicting precipitation onset, indicating a tendency to forecast peak rainfall events slightly posterior to their true occurrence. Furthermore, substantial disparities emerge in the simulation of the vertical distribution of hydrometeors, underscoring the intricacies of microphysical processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variational data assimilation theoretically assumes Gaussian-distributed observational errors, yet actual data often deviate from this assumption. Traditional quality control methods have limitations when dealing with nonlinear and non-Gaussian-distributed data. To address this issue, our study innovatively applies two advanced machine learning (ML)-based quality control (QC) methods, Minimum Covariance Determinant (MCD) and Isolation Forest, to process precipitable water (PW) data derived from satellite FengYun-2E (FY2E). We assimilated the ML QC-processed TPW data using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system and evaluated its impact on heavy precipitation forecasts with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) v4.2 model. Both methods notably enhanced data quality, leading to more Gaussian-like distributions and marked improvements in the model's simulation of precipitation intensity, spatial distribution, and large-scale circulation structures. During key precipitation phases, the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) for moderate to heavy rainfall generally increased to above 0.4. Quantitative analysis showed that both methods substantially reduced Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and bias in precipitation forecasting, with the MCD method achieving RMSE reductions of up to 58% in early forecast hours. Notably, the MCD method improved forecasts of heavy and extremely heavy rainfall, whereas the Isolation Forest method demonstrated a superior performance in predicting moderate to heavy rainfall intensities. This research not only provides a basis for method selection in forecasting various precipitation intensities but also offers an innovative solution for enhancing the accuracy of extreme weather event predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urumqi is located in the arid region of northwestern China, known for being one of the most delicate ecological environments and an area susceptible to climate change. The urbanization of Urumqi has progressed rapidly, yet there is a lack of research on the urbanization effect (UE) in Urumqi in terms of the regional climate. This study investigates the UE of Urumqi (urban built-up area) on the regional thermal environment and its mechanisms for the first time, based on the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model (combined with the Urban Canopy Model, UCM) simulation data of 10 consecutive years (2012–2021). The results show that the UE on surface temperature (Ts) and air temperature at 2 m (T2m) is strong (weak) during the night (daytime) in all seasons, and the UE on these is largest (smallest) in spring (winter). In addition, the maximum UE on both Ts and T2m is present over southern Urumqi in winter, whereas the maximum UE is identified over the northern Urumqi in other seasons. The maximum UE on Ts occurred in northwestern Urumqi at 18 LST (Local Standard Time, i.e., UTC+6) in autumn (reaching 5.2 °C), and the maximum UE on T2m occurred in northern Urumqi at 4 LST in summer (reaching 2.6 °C). Urbanization showed a weak cooling effect during daytime in summer and winter, reflecting the unique characteristics of the UE in arid regions, which are different from those in humid regions. The maximum cooling of Ts occurred in northern Urumqi at 11 LST in summer (reaching −0.4 °C), while that of T2m occurred at 10 LST in northern and northwestern Urumqi in winter (reaching −0.25 °C), and the cooling effect lasted for a longer period of time in summer than in winter. The UE of Urumqi causes the increase of Ts mainly through the influence of net short-wave radiation and geothermal flux and causes the increase of T2m through the influence of sensible heat flux and net long-wave radiation. The UE on the land surface energy balance in Urumqi can be used to explain the seasonal variation and spatial differences of the UEs on the regional thermal environment and the underlying mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first version operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) implemented the Vortex Initialization (VI) technique to optimize tropical cyclone structure and intensity, which was adopted from the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting system (HWRF) and does not initialize cloud hydrometeors and vertical velocity. This limitation in the VI caused the inconsistency issue between hurricane vortex and its cloud in the model initial condition. A new VI, which can relocate or cycle cloud hydrometeors and vertical velocity, has been developed to solve this issue. For the cold start, the VI simply relocates the cloud and vertical velocity fields of Global Forecasting System (GFS) analysis; for the warm start, the cloud and vertical velocity associated with a hurricane in the GFS analysis are replaced by the fields extracted from the 6 h HAFS forecast of a previous cycle. This new VI has been tested for the 2023 HAFS-A real-time experiment configuration, and another sensitivity experiment without relocating or cycling both cloud and vertical velocity is conducted to examine the effect of the new VI. A comparison of the results reveals that the new VI improves the intensity forecast and generates a very realistic initial cloud field in correct position. Validating the model initial conditions with observed radar data reveals that the new VI captures the secondary eyewall of major hurricanes and asymmetric convective structure of weak tropical storms. This improvement of the cloud field in the model initial condition through the new VI expects to provide a better background for further data assimilation. Additional sensitivity experiment that only relocates or cycles cloud hydrometeors without correcting the vertical velocity field results in poorer intensity forecasts, which highlights the importance of vertical velocity in the model initial condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dust storms are one of the important natural hazards that affect the lives of inhabitants all around the world, especially in North Africa and the Middle East. In this study, wind speed, wind direction, and air temperature patterns are investigated in one of the dustiest cities in Sistan Basin, Zahedan City, located in southeast Iran, over a 17-year period (2004–2020) using a WRF model and ground observation data. The city is located near a dust source and is mostly affected by local dust storms. The World Meteorology Organization (WMO) dust-related codes show that the city was affected by local dust, with 52 percent of the total dust events occurring during the period (2004–2021). The city's weather station reported that 17.5% and 43% were the minimum and maximum dusty days, respectively, during 2004–2021. The summer and July were considered the dustiest season and month in the city. Since air temperature, wind speed, and wind direction are important factors in dust rising and propagation, these meteorological factors were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the Zahedan weather station. The WRF model's output was found to be highly correlated with the station data; however, the WRF simulation mostly overestimated when compared with station data during the study period (2004–2020). The model had a reasonable performance in wind class frequency distribution at the station, demonstrating that 42.6% of the wind was between 0.5 and 2, which is in good agreement with the station data (42% in the range of 0.5–2). So, the WRF model effectively simulated the wind class frequency distribution and the wind direction at Zahedan station, despite overestimating the wind speed as well as minimum, maximum, and average air temperatures during the 17-year period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]