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Climate change-related perceptions and communication are important factors influencing people's support for climate change policies and individual behavior. Since research on both climate change-related perceptions and communication is biased towards Western countries and standardized research methodologies, this paper investigates perceptions across South African communities using a deductive-inductive qualitative approach. 20 individuals in three communities of a South African town were interviewed about their climate change-related perceptions and communication. Results show that for individual concepts of climate change, interviewees' perceptions differed across the communities: higher educated communities had more differentiated and diverse conceptions of causes and consequences of climate change and potential countermeasures. Most interviewees, across the communities, stressed that they considered climate change as an important problem, although other social problems seemed more pressing. Interestingly, all three communities most frequently encounter the issue of climate change through new and traditional mass media, but their self-assessed knowledge about it varies widely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines power relations, coalitions and conflicts that drive and hinder institutional change in South African climate policy. The analysis finds that the most contested climate policies are those that create distributional conflicts where powerful, non-poor actors will potentially experience real losses to their fossil fuel-based operations. This finding opposes the assumption of competing objectives between emissions and poverty reduction. Yet, actors use discourse that relates to potentially competing objectives between emissions reductions, jobs, poverty reduction and economic welfare. The analysis relates to the broader questions on how to address public policy problems that affect the two objectives of mitigating climate change and simultaneously boosting socio-economic development. South Africa is a middle-income country that represents the challenge of accommodating simultaneous efforts for emissions and poverty reduction. Institutional change has been constrained especially in the process towards establishing climate budgets and a carbon tax. The opposing coalitions have succeeded in delaying the implementation of these processes, as a result of unequal power relations. Institutional change in South African climate policy can be predominantly characterized as layering with elements of policy innovation. New policies build on existing regulations in all three cases of climate policy examined: the climate change response white paper, the carbon tax and the renewable energy programme. Unbalanced power relations between coalitions of support in government and civil society and opposition mainly from the affected industry result in very fragile institutional change. Key policy insights The South African government has managed to drive institutional change in climate policy significantly over the past 7 years. Powerful coalitions of coal-related industries and their lobbies have constrained institutional change and managed to delay the implementation of carbon pricing measures. A successfully managed renewable energy programme has started to transform a coal- and nuclear-powered electricity sector towards integrating sustainable energy technologies. The programme is vulnerable to intergovernmental opposition and requires management at the highest political levels. Potential conflict with poverty reduction measures is not a major concern that actively hinders institutional change towards climate objectives. Predominantly non-poor actors frequently use poverty-related discourse to elevate their interests to issues of public concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abrahamskraal–Boshof district is a farming area located in the dry semi-arid west-central part of South Africa’s Free State Province. The semi-arid, continental climate only permits dryland commercial agriculture of maize, sunflowers and stock farming. Land degradation is a problem throughout the world, is particularly more problematic in the developing countries where large parts are already degraded. The role of climate variability and biophysical factors as causes of land degradation are often overlooked. With general circulation models predicting an increase in aridity, particularly for areas in the lower latitudes, droughts will play an increasingly larger role in the promotion of land degradation in South Africa. This pilot study explores the causes of land degradation in the West-Central Free State though the use of geographical data, climatological data-sets of the past 20 years and narratives from the local farmers. The paper looks at whether farmers perceive climate variability, biophysical factors or human activities as the primary cause of land degradation. Climatological data largely correlate with most of the farmer’s perceptions of drought. Land degradation is present in all the farms where the farmers farm with Bonsmara cattle and sheep; they do not allow cattle and sheep to graze together in a paddock and keep a slightly higher stocking rate. Despite these findings, farmers largely lay the blame for the degradation on the geophysical environment of the area. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper analyses water availability and use within and between the Challenge Program on Water and Food basins. It describes the main features of water demand and supply in the basins and indicates where there are deficits and opportunities for development of water resources. A typology of basin water resources status uses a range of global spatial datasets. The main outcomes of basin activities on water availability are identified. Interbasin assessment of water availability is very challenging for such very large basins, due in large part to difficulties in collecting and integrating local data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global average surface temperature has increased by approximately 0.74 °C over the most recent 100-year period. At a regional level in South Africa, detectable changes in both the rainfall and temperature patterns have occurred in the past 50 years. Climate change has become a reality that can no longer be ignored. Given the relatively long timescales of plant-to-harvest rotations in the commercial production forestry sector in South Africa, and the significant investment implied, climate change has the potential to have substantial impacts on forestry productivity and profitability. Under climate change conditions the climatically optimum areas for specific forest species are hypothesised to shift, with optimum areas changing in extent and location between and within provinces. This paper focuses on the Eucalyptus and Pinus genera. From the ICFR Forestry Productivity Toolbox, climate criteria for three Pinus species plus one hybrid, and four Eucalyptus species plus one hybrid, were used in combination with gridded maps of present mean annual temperature and mean annual rainfall to assess climatically optimum, moderate- and high-risk growth areas, as well as unsuitable growth areas over southern Africa. The temperature and rainfall variables were then perturbed through plausible ranges of projected future climates to determine the potential impacts of climate change on the climatically optimum, moderate and unsuitable growth areas of the Pinus and Eucalyptus families. For both families, rising temperatures may slightly increase the optimum growth area in Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape, whereas in KwaZulu-Natal the area may reduce. The Pinus species showed less sensitivity to rising temperatures than eucalypts. The two hybrids exhibited less sensitivity than other species of their genera. The hybrid Pinus ExC emerged as least sensitive to increasing temperature. Declining rainfall concomitant with rising temperature will have an especially negative effect on total area of optimal growth. An increase in rainfall will, however, offset all negative impacts of temperature and increase total optimum growth area for both families. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For a sample of South African firms, this paper analyzes the relationships of firm performance and a set of organizational measures which includes organizational culture and climate, market orientation and innovativeness. These organizational measures are drawn from three different disciplines-organizational behavior, strategy and economics. The replicative study is framed in an extended model of competing organizational values which have been used in 13 countries including three transition economies (Vietnam, China and Russia). The work has also been done under a variety of conditions-for example, the US in a period of study growth, Thailand during the Asian Crisis and Hong Kong after the handover to China. Comparisons are made between South African results and those of firms from a group of five industrial countries. Market Orientation is the most important explainer of performance of the South African firms, and Innovativeness is also important. Specific elements of Organizational Culture are apparently less important in South Africa than elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of climate variability on maize yield in the Limpopo Basin of South Africa using the generalized maximum entropy (GME) estimator and maximum entropy leuven estimator (MELE). Precipitation and temperature were used as proxies for climate variability, which were combined with traditional input variables (i.e. labour, fertilizer, seed and irrigation). Based on pseudo R-squared, we found that the GME fits the data better than MELE. In addition, increased precipitation, increased temperature and irrigation have a positive impact on yield. Furthermore, the results of the GME show that the impact of precipitation on maize yield is weaker than that of temperature. However, the impact of climate variability on maize yield could be negative if it increases temperature marginally but reduces precipitation to a very large extent simultaneously. Moreover, the impact of irrigation on yield is positive and with a higher elasticity coefficient than that of precipitation, which supposes that the present system of irrigation could mitigate the impact of reduced precipitation on yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change mitigation poses significant challenges for South Africa and its energy development, historically highly energy intensive. At the same time, the country faces a host of daunting development challenges, exacerbated by the legacy of apartheid. Examining both challenges, this paper considers how alternative conceptions of a development path can be achieved. In the short term, energy efficiency provides large potential for mitigation - and energy savings at the same time. Changing South Africa's fuel mix, dependent to three-quarters on coal, is at least a medium-term challenge. The minerals-energy complex is so central to the economy that it is likely to take decades to change dramatically. The most transformative change is to an alteration in economic structure, likely to take long to achieve. The article examines specific policy instruments that might be implemented to achieve such a transformation. A transition to a low-carbon economy will require a paradigm shift in industrial policy. It will require considered provision for sectors sensitive to changes in energy prices. Building up new, climate-friendly industries will be needed to sustain employment and investment. To enable a just transition, provision will have to be made for emissions-intensive sectors, if they are to be phased out over time. South African government has adopted a vision, strategic direction and framework for climate policy. Policymakers have begun to understand that the future will be carbon constrained and that South Africa's emission will have to stop growing, stabilize and decline before mid-century. The challenge of climate change is a long-term challenge, requiring immediate action. This article examines actions at near-, medium- and long-term timescales. Its focus is on the most transformative change, that of seeking to shift development paths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rainfall over Southern Africa has a well-defined annual cycle with the largest values occurring during summer (October-March). Substantial increases or decreases in summer rainfall can have devastating effects, particularly for agriculture which constitutes up to 25% of GDP in South Africa. This paper reviews recent research pertaining to climate variability over Southern Africa, particularly South Africa. Atmosphere-ocean interaction studies relevant to above- and below-normal rainfall events are highlighted. Linked to this is the predictability of such rainfall events using general circulation models (GCMs). The utilisation of GCMs initialised using predicted sea surface temperature changes in the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the African region holds promise for the timeous forecasting of these rainfall events over Southern Africa. The empirical agreements between precipitation anomalies and such meteorological variables such as OLR, etc. are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beach and coastal tourism belong to the outdoor tourism sector and are strongly dependent on climate and weather. This is of particular concern for South Africa's coastline, which is characterised by climate heterogeneity, facing multiple threats under climate change. Of the few studies exploring climate perceptions of tourists, the majority have predominantly focused on the global north. This study provides insight into beach tourists' perceptions of weather and climate in South Africa, in relation to socio-economic and cross-cultural factors. This is done to evaluate discriminators for future research on the topic. A questionnaire was administered to 593 domestic and international participants. The survey was conducted at nine destinations of greatest touristic importance. The statistical analysis revealed significant correlations between tourists' nationality and their perception of climate importance. For example, domestic tourists are visibly more concerned about the climate at their holiday destination in South Africa than international tourists. No statistically significant correlations were returned for education and age, although for income, minor Cramer's V correlations were calculated. This reveals the importance of the country of origin of tourists in exploring the climate perception of beach and coastal touristswp. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on climate and food inequalities while highlighting food sovereignty responses. It provides an analysis of climate inequalities ramifying through the world today. At the same time, food inequality is conceptually clarified as a counter approach to food security. It is argued that food inequality is consistent with the case for food sovereignty. Moreover, the combination of climate and food inequalities also highlight the complexity of climate crises and the challenges they pose for food regimes. The article further highlights the emergence of the food sovereignty response and systemic alternative. Taking this further is a case study of the transformative politics of the South African Food Sovereignty Campaign and its constitutive approach to various forms of power from below. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across South Africa, many activities warrant consistent and predictable rainfall patterns which can be achieved from classification of rainfall seasonality into homogeneous zones. Since the first seasonality map for South Africa which was published in 1938, attempts to classify and map rainfall seasonality for the region has proliferates, with many different approaches adopted. Currently, 59 published maps depicting rainfall seasonality across South Africa are known. Although the dichotomy between the summer and winter rainfall zones is well-reported, classification and mapping of the seasonal rainfall zones remains somewhat arbitrary and relatively inconsistent amongst authors. Amongst these maps, there is a broad consensus that three distinct regions with a relatively homogenous seasonal distribution of rainfall exist, known as: summer, winter and year-round rainfall zones. Much of the country has been classified with at least 75% spatial agreement, while classification for the remainder of the country remains rather disputed. Available classification approaches were interrogated, and it was demonstrated that each approach is associated with limitations affecting the accuracy of these maps. We suggest a rigorously assessed approach, or a set of approaches should be used to classify rainfall zones which may be important in further understanding rainfall seasonality across South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A biography of Professor Johann R. E. Lutjeharms is presented. He was born and educated in Bloemfontein, South Africa. He was a member of the Oceanography Department at the University of Cape Town (UCT) for 20 years. He became the chairman of Ocean Climatology at UCT in 1990 and retired in December 2009. His research have focused on understanding and quantifying the large-scale circulation patterns of the ocean around South Africa.

Urban planning can play a potentially meaningful role in managing the risks of climate change. It is, however, unclear to what extent planning practice can be transformed in order to address these risks effectively in the global south. Using Johannesburg in South Africa as an illustrative case and the interrelated challenges of flood risks and informal growth as an example, it is demonstrated how the identification of a particular planning practice with historically informed values of justice substantially constrains the realization of adaptive planning options. Correspondingly, its implications for managing flood risks of climate change through planning under conditions of urban divide are outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the potential geographical distribution and spread of non-native species is of major concern to ecologists. Silver carpHypophthalmichthys molitrix, ranked as one of the world's 100 worst invasive species, were introduced into South Africa in 1975, but the potential spread of this invader has not yet been addressed, despite recent studies indicating its potential ecological impacts in South Africa. The potential range of silver carp in South Africa was identified based on ecological niche modelling (ENM) using the maximum entropy method. Models were constructed using occurrence records and a defined background, and calibrated using ak-fold method. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model performance. Both the native and introduced range model accurately predicted species occurrences (AUC 0.98 and 0.94, respectively). Most of the north-eastern part of South Africa, including the Limpopo River Basin, where the presence of silver carp has been recorded, was correctly predicted as climatically suitable for silver carp. Other areas with suitable climatic conditions for silver carp but with no known introductions were also identified. The model demonstrated the potential use of ENM to predict the potential range of silver carp in South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Semi-arid landscapes are vulnerable to cultivation, overgrazing and climate variability, although it is difficult to identify the relative significance of these three factors. In the South African Karoo, the 'desertification debate' seeks to explain a change to more shrubby vegetation in heavily grazed areas. We examine these issues in catchments where farm reservoirs provide sediment stores with 137Cs, 210Pb, geochemical and mineral magnetic signatures. Rainfall data and stocking numbers are reported and current erosion rates are estimated. Sediment accumulation in the reservoirs increases between 1935 and 1940, probably due to rises in the frequency of rainfall events of >25mm day. Significant increases in sedimentation rates (×8) occur during rain-fed wheat cultivation. In an uncultivated catchment, sediment yields remain relatively high and reflect increases in erosion from hillslopes, colluvial storage, and cultivated land sources. Gully systems have acted as transport routes rather than sediment sources over the last ∼70 years. Badland erosion rates average ca. 50t ha-1 yr-1. At Ganora, their development in the 1920s strongly influences peak sedimentation between 1970 and 1980. Any delay between badland initiation and increased sediment yield appears to be a function of landscape connectivity. Recovery following disturbance is occurring slowly and is likely to take >100 years. De-stocking and better management systems are reducing erosion rates but may be offset by increases in rainfall intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a non-parametrical investigation on the relationships between hail day frequency (HDF), altitude and latitude in the summer rainfall region of South Africa. HDF versus altitude; HDF versus altitude and latitude; HDF versus altitude at different latitudes; HDF versus latitude at specific heights.