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Background: The COVID-19 has posed a wide range of urgent questions: about the disease, testing, immunity, treatments, and outcomes. Extreme situations, such as pandemics, call for exceptional measures. However, this threatens the production and application of evidence., Methods: This article applies standard categories in epistemology to analyse the pandemic in terms of four kinds of uncertainty: Risk, Fundamental uncertainty, Ignorance, and Ambiguity., Results: Mapping the uncertainties of the pandemic onto the four types of uncertainty directs evidence production towards specific tasks in order to address the challenges of the pandemic: Eliminating ambiguity, being alert to the unknown, and gathering data to estimate risks are crucial to preserve evidence and save lives., Conclusion: In order to avoid fake facts and to provide sustainable solutions, we need to pay attention to the various kinds of uncertainty. Producing high-quality evidence is the solution, not the problem., (© 2020 The Author. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Alcohol dependence is associated with poor decision-making under ambiguity, that is, when decisions are to be made in the absence of known probabilities of reward and loss. However, little is known regarding decisions made by individuals with alcohol dependence in the context of known probabilities (decision under risk). In this study, we investigated the relative contribution of these distinct aspects of decision-making to alcohol dependence., Methods: Thirty recently detoxified and sober asymptomatic alcohol-dependent individuals and 30 healthy control participants were tested for decision-making under ambiguity (using the Iowa Gambling Task[IGT]) and decision-making under risk (using the Cups Task and Coin Flipping Task). We also tested their capacities for working memory storage (digit span forward) and dual tasking (operation span task)., Results: Compared to healthy control participants, alcohol-dependent individuals made disadvantageous decisions on the IGT, reflecting poor decisions under ambiguity. They also made more risky choices on the Cups and Coin Flipping Tasks reflecting poor decision-making under risk. In addition, alcohol-dependent participants showed some working memory impairments, as measured by the dual tasking, and the degree of this impairment correlated with high-risk decision-making, thus suggesting a relationship between processes subserving working memory and risky decisions., Conclusions: These results suggest that alcohol-dependent individuals are impaired in their ability to decide optimally in multiple facets of uncertainty (i.e., both risk and ambiguity) and that at least some aspects of these deficits are linked to poor working memory processes., (Copyright © 2014 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.)

While seeking advice can be beneficial for advisees, advisors may not always possess the necessary knowledge to provide appropriate guidance. Poor‐quality advice can mislead advisees rather than offering assistance. Despite the research interest in advisees, few studies have investigated advisors' psychological and behavioral responses, especially when they faced uncertainty regarding the optimal course of action for advisees. To fill this gap, we developed novel paradigms aiming at manipulating advisors' uncertainty, allowing for a systematic investigation of advisors' behavior, motivation, and emotion. Across four studies, we consistently found that advisors under uncertainty give less advice. Furthermore, we observed that uncertainty modulates advisors' motivation to influence, worry about harm to others, and/or sense of power. The motivation to influence and/or worry about harm to others can mediate the effect of uncertainty on advice giving. Besides, we identified nuanced distinctions in the effects of ambiguity and risk, two distinct types of uncertainty, on advisors' psychological processes. Our findings shed light on advisors' self‐monitoring of the quality of their advice, thereby contributing to a deeper understanding of advisor–advisee communication from the perspective of advisors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated by the recently experienced systemic shocks (the COVID-19 pandemic and the full-fledged Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine)—that have created new forms of uncertainties to our supplies—this paper explores the supply chain robustness under risk aversion and ambiguity aversion. We aim to understand the potential consequences of deeply uncertain systemic events on the supply chain resilience and how does the information precision affect individual agents' choices and the chain level preparedness to aggregate shocks. Augmenting a parsimonious supply chain model with uncertainty, we analyse the relationship between the upstream sourcing decisions and the supply chain survival probability. Both risk-averse and ambiguity-averse individually-optimising agents' upstream sourcing paths are efficient but can become vulnerable to aggregate shocks. In contrast, a chain-level coordination of downstream firm sourcing decisions can qualitatively improve the robustness of the entire supply chain compared to the individual decision making baseline. Such a robust decision making ensures that in the presence of an aggregate shock—independently of its realisation—part of upstream suppliers will survive and the final goods' supply will be ensured even under the most demanding circumstances. Our results also indicate that an input source diversification extracts a cost in foregone efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time ambiguity—that is, having partially/fully incomplete information about when an outcome will occur—is common in everyday life. A recent study showed that participants preferred options with time‐exact delays over options with time‐ambiguous delays, a phenomenon they called time‐ambiguity aversion. However, the empirical robustness and boundaries of this phenomenon remain unexplored. We conducted three online studies: Study 2 (n = 118) was a replication of Study 1 (n = 76) using preregistered analyses; Study 3 (n = 202; preregistered) was a follow‐up study suggested during review. In Studies 1 and 2, participants completed hypothetical choices between €5 today versus later‐but‐larger (LL) rewards that systematically varied in their amount, delay, and time‐ambiguity level (e.g., for a 180 day delay, time ambiguity varied from 179 to 181 to 0–360 days). Effects of time ambiguity on choice were best encoded in an absolute, dose‐dependent manner and depended on delays and amounts: Increasing time ambiguity led to more time‐exact LL choices at shorter delays but more time‐ambiguous LL choices at longer delays. Additionally, time‐ambiguity ranges including today were chosen more frequently than ranges excluding today, akin to the present bias in intertemporal choice. Lastly, evidence suggested that more time ambiguity was preferred for smaller LL amounts yet disliked for larger LL amounts. Study 3 demonstrated that time‐risk and time‐ambiguity preferences are differentiable by giving participants choices involving hypothetical time‐exact, time‐ambiguous, and time‐risky options. Taken together, our results extend the nascent literature on time ambiguity by showing that (i) time‐ambiguity preferences are distinguishable from both time‐risk and delay preferences and (ii) time ambiguity is not generally aversive, but its impact depends on delay and amount magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The interval between adolescence and adulthood, 'emerging adulthood' (EA), lays the foundation for lifelong health and well‐being. To date, there exist little empirical data – particularly in the neurobiological domain – to establish markers of risk and resilience during the transition to adulthood. This gap in the literature is concerning given the numerous forms of psychiatric illness that emerge or worsen during this period. Methods: In this review, we focus on two strands of research with distinct importance for EA: reward sensitivity, and tolerance of ambiguity. We begin by placing these domains in a framework that considers the unique developmental goals of EA and then synthesize emerging neurobiological research on how these domains develop during EA. We then consider their role in common mental health problems that occur during this interval as well as how social support may moderate outcomes. Finally, we offer recommendations for advancing research to understand developmental process and outcomes in EA. Findings and conclusions: Few longitudinal studies specifically address emerging adult development and the milestones that characterize this interval. Data on neurobiological development are similarly sparse. Understanding neurobiological development during this window and its links to key adjustment outcomes is crucial for optimizing outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non‐linear inversion of controlled source electromagnetic data is non‐unique. Inversion ambiguity and uncertainty grow with model complexity and limitations in sensitivity, for example when imaging deep targets. Uncertainties should be estimated. The best way to do that is by statistical inversion techniques. Because of the large number of parameters of 3D models, these methods are too costly for 3D applications. But neglecting or underestimating uncertainties often leads to erroneous interpretation and poor exploration decisions. The number of inversion parameters can be dramatically reduced while still being able to describe a complex 3D subsurface. To obtain that, I represent prior information by an input ensemble of geologically reasonable prior models. The model space is defined by the principal directions of this ensemble, where the inversion parameters are the coefficients of the different components. In this model space, inversion becomes much more efficient and can produce an updated ensemble of posterior models at the same computational cost as a controlled‐source electromagnetic inversion project using conventional non‐linear inversion techniques. I present examples where unique Gauss–Newton inversions lead to difficult interpretations and poor conclusions about hydrocarbon presence and saturation. The new approach provides a quantitative estimation of resistivity ambiguities and uncertainties leading to better interpretation and safer decisions. The examples use 2D synthetic controlled‐source electromagnetic data and 3D controlled‐source electromagnetic field data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pesticide use reduces the variation in crop yields at the expense of potentially negative consequences to farmers and their family members. This article examines the trade‐off between decreasing production risk and increasing health ambiguity because of pesticide use. We find that under ambiguity, pesticide application decreases the variation in health outcomes, whereas under risk, it decreases the expected value of health outcomes. Health insurance protects health from the pesticide damage but not from the ambiguity effect of pesticide application, and the optimal choice of pesticide application does not depend on the farmer's health preferences over risk or ambiguity. However, in the absence of health insurance, ambiguity can increase or decrease the optimal choice of pesticide compared to the risk case. This suggests that public policies around pesticide usage should be designed to reflect and account for the multitude of behavioral responses in the presence of ambiguity and risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decisions about one's health are often accompanied by uncertain outcomes, which may be either positively or negatively valenced. The presence of this uncertainty, which can range along a continuum from risk to ambiguity (i.e., decisions in which the outcome probabilities are known or unknown), can be perceived as threatening, and individuals tend to be averse to uncertain outcomes, attempting to avoid uncertainty when possible. We proposed that one way to reduce uncertainty aversion could be to provide opportunities to affirm one's core values, or "self‐affirmation." Prior research has suggested that self‐affirmation promotes health behavior by providing a buffer against potential threats to the self. However, the degree to which self‐affirmation affects decision making is still unclear. Across two studies, we tested the effects of a self‐affirmation manipulation on risk (Study 1) and ambiguity (Study 2) preferences for both potential gains and losses. In both studies, we found that, compared to the non‐affirmed group, affirmed individuals were more accepting of uncertainty when the decision involved potential gains, but not for potential losses. Furthermore, for risky decisions, the increased acceptance of uncertainty came at the expense of making choices consistent with the expected value, such that self‐affirmed individuals made more disadvantageous choices than non‐affirmed individuals. Our results suggest both benefits and costs of self‐affirmation in the context of risky choice, an important finding has given the many applications of self‐affirmation in behavioral decision‐making contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During exploration, young children often show an intuitive sensitivity to uncertainty, despite their strong tendency towards overconfidence in their explicit judgments. Here, we examine the development of children's explicit and implicit recognition of uncertainty using the same stimuli. We presented 4‐ and 5‐year‐olds with objects that varied in their amount of perceptual occlusion, and assessed their ability to distinguish among them using two types of measures. Experiment 1 used a traditional 3‐point confidence scale to examine children's explicit uncertainty judgments. We compared these confidence judgments before and after they observed disconfirming evidence, to assess the impact of this experience on their acknowledgement of uncertainty in later trials. Experiment 2 examined children's exploration preference as a measure of implicit sensitivity to uncertainty. Our results indicate that children intuitively recognize gaps in their knowledge, and that this implicit recognition may be leveraged to support their explicit judgments. Specifically, we found that children's baseline confidence judgments improved significantly following the presentation of disconfirming evidence. Furthermore, when asked to make exploration decisions about the same set of objects, children showed a spontaneous sensitivity to uncertainty, prior to any evidence. Taken together, these results suggest that children's exploration behavior may be used as an early developing measure of uncertainty control and raise the intriguing possibility that the experience of unexpected outcomes may play a role in the development of metacognition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bisphenol A (BPA) is one of the most studied and most controversial chemicals used by the food packaging industry, because of its endocrine disruptive properties. Part of the controversy is due to the uncertainty that surrounds the effects of BPA on the endocrine system. Uncertainty includes data gaps, methodological hurdles, incompatibilities between toxicology and endocrinology‐based approaches, and so on. In this article, we analyze how uncertainty has been conceptualized and treated. We focus on the European Food Safety Authority assessments of BPA, and study how exposure and hazard assessments have evolved over time, how uncertainty has been analyzed, and how the agency responded to controversies. Results show that in the attempt to reduce knowledge gaps, assessments have become progressively larger, including more references, evidence, and effects. There is a tendency toward greater precisions and specification of results, and toward protocolization of all processes included in the assessment (from literature review, to uncertainty assessments, and public consultation). Yet, the uncertainty has not diminished following the increase in evidence. We argue that the strategy used to reduce uncertainty within risk assessment, namely including more variables, studies, data, and methods, amplifies the uncertainty linked to indeterminacy (as more results increase the fragmentation of the knowledge base due to the open‐ended nature of complex issues) and ambiguity (as complexity gives way to multiple nonequivalent interpretations of results). For this reason, it is important to consider different types of uncertainty and how these uncertainties interact with each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When building new ventures, entrepreneurs confront the three problems of Knightian uncertainty, goal ambiguity, and isotropy. The literature on effectuation offers a framework for action, interaction, and reaction within the prediction control space that can help entrepreneurs tackle the above three problems. In this article, we offer a framework consisting of four approaches to negotiation that populate the prediction‐control space, namely, Pitch, Help, Deal, and (Effectual) Ask. While we emphasize the effectual quadrant, we examine all four from a practical perspective informed by theory, while forging important connections with established works in negotiation research. Along the way, we offer illustrative examples as well as ideas for future research at the nexus of entrepreneurship and negotiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamic and changing healthcare environment requires educators to prepare nurse practitioner students with more than knowledge and skills. Healthcare providers need to be prepared with enhanced skills related to critical thinking and decision making. Metacognition training has been used by many disciplines within and outside of healthcare to prepare individuals to work in an environment that has volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, and delayed feedback (VUCAD). This retrospective exploratory study uses computerized strategic management simulation (SMS) data to address the question: What parameters of metacognition do master's level nurse practitioner (NP) students excel versus underperform? Elements of Presentation: Presentation will include SMS parameters linked with the National Organization of Nurse Practitioner Faculties (NONPF) Core Competencies. In doing this, faculty can better assess students' individualized learning needs and tailor their academic education to address specific needs. Fifty‐nine master's level students completed SMS, measuring five unique parameters of metacognition (Crisis, Task, Strategy, People & Information Management). Students' mean and median scores were observed to be high range for crisis management; and moderate range for task management, strategy management, and people management. Conversely, mean and median scores were in the low range for information management. Knowledge gained from this study can be used for curriculum development and planning to ensure that the parameters of metacognition are demonstrated throughout the curriculum's content delivery, training exercises, and evaluation methods. Knowledge related to areas in which NP students score in the low range can be added to courses to assist students better. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the effect of ambiguity on personal vaccination decisions. We first characterize the vaccination decision in the absence of ambiguity. We then show that uncertainty about the probability of side effects and the efficacy of the vaccine always reduces take‐up under ambiguity aversion. However, uncertainty about the underlying disease, being the probability of sickness or the probability of a severe course of disease, may either encourage or discourage vaccination. Our results are relevant for policy because reducing uncertainty associated with the vaccine always has the desired effect whereas reducing uncertainty associated with the disease may have unintended consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Influential theories posit that bodily responses are important for decision‐making under uncertainty. However, the evidence of the role of our ability to perceive subtle bodily changes (interoception) in decision‐making under uncertainty is mixed. These differences may arise from the fact that uncertainty, a part of daily decision‐making, can be fractionated into risk (known probabilities) and ambiguity (unknown probabilities). Here we examine the role of arousal and interoception in shaping risky and ambiguous decisions. We measured skin conductance responses and heart rate changes while participants (N = 40) made gambling decisions in the context of risky and ambiguous lotteries. Results reveal that the anticipation phase produced the largest arousal responses, suggesting that the anticipation is a major contributor to arousal during gambling behavior, regardless of the uncertainty type. Moreover, physiological responses were higher following positive outcomes than negative outcomes. We did not find any direct relation between interoceptive dimensions and the attitudes toward risk and ambiguity. However, in those with higher interoceptive accuracy, skin conductance responses differentiated between risk and ambiguity as well as between the gamble phases (decision, anticipation, and outcome). Together, our findings demonstrate that decision‐making under uncertainty is to some extent associated with individual differences in the ability both to generate and to perceive accurately subtle changes in bodily arousal during the decision‐making process. However, these changes seem to be moderately related to the type of uncertainty (risk or ambiguity). We demonstrate that decision‐making under uncertainty is associated with individual differences in the ability both to generate and perceive accurately subtle changes in bodily arousal during the decision‐making process. However, we did not find any direct relationship between interoceptive dimensions and attitudes (seeking/avoidance) toward risk and ambiguity. We also complement previous evidence that the largest arousal responses occurred during the anticipation phases, compared with the responses produced during the decision and the outcome phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In environments with expected utility, it has long been established that speculative trade cannot occur and that the value of public information is negative in economies with risk‐sharing and no aggregate uncertainty. We show that these results are still true even if we relax expected utility, so that either Dynamic Consistency (DC) or Consequentialism is violated. We characterize no speculative trade in terms of a weakening of DC and find that Consequentialism is not required. Moreover, we show that a weakening of both DC and Consequentialism is sufficient for the value of public information to be negative. We therefore generalize these important results for convex preferences which contain several classes of ambiguity averse preferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the COVID‐19 crisis, society pins its hopes on science to play an authoritative role in reducing uncertainty and ambiguity. But is science up to the task? This is far from self‐evident. The demands on science in times of crisis run counter to the values of good, normal science. Crisis science needs to be fast, univocal, personalized, and direct, while normal science is slow, contentious, collective, and sensitive to complexity. Science can only play its atypical role if it is staged in the public arena. Some patterns of staging stand out: personalization, visualization, and connection to lived experiences. So far, the staging of science has been successful, but it is fragile. The COVID‐19 crisis shows the potential of well‐staged forms of alliance between science and policy, but when the general assumption is that scientists will "solve" societal "problems," the staging of science has gone too far. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Medical information is often conflicting and consequently perceived as ambiguous. There are individual differences both in how much people perceive ambiguity and in their tolerance for such ambiguity. Little is known about how these constructs are related to each other and with other beliefs. Objective: To examine the association between (a) perceived medical ambiguity, (b) tolerance for medical ambiguity and (c) their associations with various medical and cancer‐specific judgement and decision‐making correlates. Method and Participants: We conducted secondary data analyses using the cross‐sectional, nationally representative Health Information National Trends Survey 4, Cycle 4 (n = 3,433, 51.0% female, Mage = 46.5). Analyses statistically controlled for age, sex, race, education and health‐care coverage. Main variables studied: Perceived medical ambiguity, tolerance for medical ambiguity, cancer perceptions, health‐care experiences and preferences, and information‐seeking styles and beliefs. Results: Perceived medical ambiguity and tolerance for medical ambiguity were statistically independent. Higher perceived ambiguity was associated with lower perceived cancer preventability, lower reliance on doctors, lower perceived health and information‐seeking self‐efficacy, lower perceived quality of the cancer information‐seeking process, and greater cancer information avoidance. Lower tolerance for ambiguity was associated with lower cancer worry, lower trust in doctors, lower likelihood of seeking health information, and lower engagement in medical research. Discussion and Conclusions: Perceived medical ambiguity and tolerance for medical ambiguity seem to be distinct constructs. Findings have implications for how people make medical decisions when they perceive and prefer to avoid conflicting medical information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY: Background: Little is known about health and wellbeing among patients with nephrotic syndrome (NS), despite it being a serious condition in patients with renal failure. In order to promote health, it is important that both healthcare professionals and patients are aware of the signs and symptoms of the disease. Objectives: The aim was to explore patients' experience of suffering from nephrotic syndrome. Design: An inductive, qualitative method. Participants: Ten adult patients with either newly diagnosed or a relapse of NS treated in a University hospital, south of Sweden from February 2016 to February 2019. Measurements: Data were collected using open‐ended interviews and analysed by means of Lindseth and Norberg's phenomenological‐hermeneutical method. Results: Suffering from NS meant being a stranger in an unfamiliar world of symptoms, signs and medical treatment without professional guidance or piloting, illustrated by four themes: Feeling ill and well at the same time, Being passively adherent, Being in uncertainty, and Trying to comprehend and cope. Implications for practice: The result provides an in‐depth understanding of the illness experience among patients with NS and constitutes a foundation for clinical guidelines on treatment, follow‐up and health promotion. Conclusion: Patients with NS end up in a state of ambiguity due to a profound knowledge deficit that causes uncertainty and a lack of self‐management. The experienced lack of professional self‐management support is partly compensated for by social support from relatives, enabling those with NS to manage everyday life in a reasonable way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty about the future of a close relationship is important to consider given the association between relational uncertainty and well‐being. These concerns and questions are likely compounded by accelerated rates of societal change that are rife with ambiguity, which could erode relational confidence, especially for those in marginalized unions. Despite the importance of the sociopolitical environment, there is limited insight into how this context might shape various forms of uncertainty. Thus, we propose an integrative framework, the contextual relational uncertainty model, to understand the intersection of contextual ambiguity and relational uncertainty during times of change for individuals in marginalized relationships. As an exemplar of sociopolitical transitions, we describe the changes related to same‐sex marriage in the 21st century to illustrate the utility and initial explication of the model. We describe suggestions for future research and clinical implications of exploring sociopolitical uncertainty, as well as its antecedents and consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study economies with Knightian uncertainty about state prices. We introduce an equilibrium concept with sublinear prices and prove that equilibria exist under weak conditions. In general, such equilibria lead to inefficient allocations; they coincide with Arrow–Debreu equilibria if and only if the values of net trades are ambiguity‐free in mean. In economies without aggregate uncertainty, inefficiencies are generic. Equilibrium allocations under price uncertainty are efficient in a constrained sense that we call uncertainty–neutral efficient. Arrow–Debreu equilibria turn out to be non‐robust with respect to the introduction of Knightian uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the quantitative impact of ambiguity on historically observed financial asset returns and growth rates. The single agent, in a dynamic exchange economy, treats the conditional uncertainty about the consumption and dividends next period as ambiguous. We calibrate the agent's ambiguity aversion to match only the first moment of the risk‐free rate in data and measure the uncertainty each period conditional on the actual, observed history of (U.S.) macroeconomic growth outcomes. Ambiguity aversion accentuates the effect of conditional uncertainty endogenously in a dynamic way, depending on the history; for example, it increases during recessions. We show the model implied time series of asset returns substantially match the first and second conditional moments of observed return dynamics. In particular, we find the time‐series properties of our model generated equity premium, which may be regarded as an index measure of revealed uncertainty, relates closely to those of the macroeconomic uncertainty indices developed recently in Jurado, Ludvigson, and Ng, 2015 and Carriero, Clark, and Marcellino, forthcoming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Causal reasoning with ambiguous observations requires subjects to estimate and evaluate the ambiguous observations. Detecting how people process ambiguous observations can be complicated by individual differences in causal reasoning. This paper proposes a hierarchical model that accounts for the uncertainty in both the distribution of the functional form selection and the distribution of the ambiguity treatment selection. The model provides an alternative to self‐report measures for identifying subjects' strategic choices in reasoning about causal relationships under ambiguity. The posterior distribution of the causal estimates is determined by both the functional form and the ambiguity processing strategy adopted by the reasoner. Our model is tested in a simulation study where it demonstrates its ability to recover the strategies and functional forms adopted by simulated subjects across a range of hypothetical conditions. In addition, the model is applied to the results of an experimental study. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Past research indicates that being religious is frequently motivated by the need to avoid uncertainty and associated with prejudice against value‐violating groups. The present research clarifies these previous findings and shows for the first time a causal link between a sense of uncertainty and group attitudes through religiosity and the perception of the target group's mindset. Study 1 demonstrates that belief in God is associated with uncertainty avoidance and increases prejudice against value‐violating groups, but simultaneously increases positive attitudes towards value‐consistent groups. Study 2 demonstrates experimentally that a sense of uncertainty shapes intergroup attitudes when the relationship is mediated through the belief in God and the perception that a target group actually violated perceivers' values. The results corroborate and broaden previous findings on religiosity, ambiguity avoidance, and prejudice and, for the first time, show a causal link between a sense of uncertainty and attitudes towards value‐violating and value‐consistent groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article introduces the construct of indeterminacy and describes its effects on transfer in adult education. Indeterminacy is characterized as a type of stimulus-response relationship in which the stimulus evokes a response that requires secondary and/or ongoing judgments as opposed to evoking a concrete, predetermined response. Following a brief overview of research on transfer in which we highlight the neglect of a systematic study of the construct, we review extant literature from different disciplines in which indeterminacy has been recognized as playing an important role. During this process, we distinguish it from uncertainty and ambiguity. Based on the review, we hypothesize and provide empirical evidence suggesting that indeterminacy diminishes transfer. On this basis, we argue that understanding, measuring, and controlling indeterminacy is important for the study and design of effective adult education programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policy makers cannot consider all evidence relevant to policy. They use two shortcuts-emotions and beliefs to understand problems and 'rational' ways of establishing the best evidence on solutions-to act quickly in complex, multilevel policy-making environments. Many studies only address one part of this problem. Improving the supply of evidence helps reduce scientific and policy maker uncertainty. However, policy makers also combine their beliefs with limited evidence to reduce ambiguity by choosing one of several possible ways to understand and solve a problem. We use this insight to consider solutions designed to 'close the evidence-policy gap.' [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical uncertainty ranges are often used to convey the precision of a forecast. In three studies, we examined how users perceive the distribution underlying numerical ranges and test specific hypotheses about the display characteristics that affect these perceptions. We discuss five primary conclusions from these studies: (1) substantial variation exists in how people perceive the distribution underlying numerical ranges; (2) distributional perceptions appear similar whether the uncertain variable is a probability or an outcome; (3) the variation in distributional perceptions is due in part to individual differences in numeracy, with more numerate individuals more likely to perceive the distribution as roughly normal; (4) the variation is also due in part to the presence versus absence of common cues used to convey the correct interpretation (e.g., including a best estimate increases perceptions that the distribution is roughly normal); and (5) simple graphical representations can decrease the variance in distributional perceptions. These results point toward significant opportunities to improve uncertainty communication in climate change and other domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ambiguity may lead us to insert abstractions into our experience that create a greater number of unanticipated, unintended consequences. When people move closer to the flux of ambiguity, they work to make sense of it. High reliability organizations react to ambiguity by increasing it momentarily. To increase ambiguity is to grasp more of the situation, to refrain from simplifications, and to strive for a workable level of ambiguity. This argument is developed through a focus on connotations of ambiguity, assumptions for organizing around ambiguity, and implications for practice. To grasp ambiguity is to adopt an attitude of wisdom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose that performance under uncertainty and ambiguity is enabled by a two-pronged set of practices enacted by leaders and frontline workers. These contextualized practices fuel performance by enabling teams and organizations to both discern, interpret and make sense of important discrepancies as situations unfold (what we refer to as anomalizing), and to develop a richer understanding of a situation (what we call proactive leader sensemaking). Together, these situation-specific practices contextualize engagement and promote capabilities to contingently tailor actions to unfolding conditions. We test our hypotheses using data gathered from a sample of wildland firefighters and find strong support for our theorizing. We also identify a set of additional group and situational conditions that provide a more nuanced understanding of factors that contribute to reliable performance under dynamic uncertainty. Together, the findings provide quantitative evidence for the micro-foundations of effective performance in uncertain contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate how firm-specific certification practices through corporate governance can reduce perceived ambiguity and thus enhance liquidity of a firm in the stock market. We show that better corporate governance helps reduce ambiguity. In addition, a reduction in ambiguity is significantly related to higher liquidity of firms. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications and measures of ambiguity, and remain statistically significant after controlling for other known determinants of ambiguity and liquidity. Our results shed light on how ambiguity can be moderated through firm-level certification practices and on the channel through which a moderation of ambiguity affects shareholder wealth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This contribution attempts to explore the use of a variety of literary sources as aids or 'prompts' to understanding those offenders and offender-patients whose mental states often raise considerable anxieties in those charged with their management. The word 'prompt' is borrowed from the work of my friend, the late doctor Murray Cox, and his co-worker Alice Theilgaard in their seminal work Shakespeare as Prompter (1994). The author of the present article hopes that its content will enable readers to focus more clearly on why we sometimes fail our offenders and offender-patients; in particular, through the mechanism of denial. The use of dramatic presentation when proffered with a unique blend of force and sensitivity can permit us to view puzzlement and horror from a safe distance and, at the same time, encourage us to increase our empathic understanding and professional practice. Most of the examples cited are brief allusions but, because her history is so compellingly applicable to our concerns in the present contribution, the 'case' of Lady Macbeth is considered in more detail. Finally, I would note some very wise words by Cox and Theilgaard (1994) in a caveat note to the reader: 'Should the focus on therapy ever become occluded by preoccupation with poetic association, clinical skills would be diminished, distraction ensue and therapeutic contact deteriorate' (not numbered). In the material that follows readers should bear such a cautionary note in mind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Many personal, managerial, and societal decisions involve uncertain or ambiguous consequences that will occur in the future. Yet, previous empirical research on ambiguity preferences has focused mainly on decisions with immediate outcomes. To close this gap in the literature, this paper examines ambiguity attitudes toward future prospects, particularly how they may differ from the attitudes toward comparable prospects in the present. On the basis of a recent paradigm, we first distinguish between two types of ambiguity: imprecise probabilities and imprecise outcomes. Then, in accordance with construal level theory, which shows that temporal distance increases the relative importance of outcomes over probabilities in evaluating prospects, we conjecture that temporal distance would moderate attitudes toward imprecise probabilities but amplify attitudes toward imprecise outcomes. Through a series of experiments, we demonstrate that when the prospects are in the future, individuals are less averse toward imprecise probabilities and more seeking toward imprecise outcomes. However, the effect is most prominent for prospects where both the probability and outcome dimensions are concurrently imprecise. The paper ends with a discussion on how dimension salience may have contributed to this result. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic models of ambiguity aversion are increasingly popular in applied work. This paper shows that there is a strong interdependence in such models between the ambiguity attitude and the preference for the timing of the resolution of uncertainty, as defined by the classic work of Kreps and Porteus (1978). The modeling choices made in the domain of ambiguity aversion influence the set of modeling choices available in the domain of timing attitudes. The main result is that the only model of ambiguity aversion that exhibits indifference to timing is the maxmin expected utility of Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989). This paper examines the structure of the timing nonindifference implied by the other commonly used models of ambiguity aversion. This paper also characterizes the indifference to long-run risk, a notion introduced by Duffle and Epstein (1992). The interdependence of ambiguity and timing that this paper identifies is of interest both conceptually and practically--especially for economists using these models in applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty is widely recognized to be a key contingency influencing optimal new product development processes. However, extant new product research treats uncertainty in a largely unidimensional manner. Even in studies where multiple dimensions of uncertainty are measured, they are hypothesized to behave in a similar manner. This paper advances a theory describing how ambiguity and volatility place different and conflicting demands on new product development processes. Drawing on ideas from the organization theory and learning literatures, the theory suggests that more ambiguous environments favor slower development processes based on larger samples of data and interpretations whereas more volatile environments favor faster and more flexible development processes. Five hypotheses are advanced suggesting that as the level of ambiguity increases (decreases) relative to the level of volatility, firms should respond by decreasing (increasing) the role of top management in new product development, increasing (decreasing) front-end and back-end participation, allocating more (less) time and effort to ideation, and using more (less) aggressive screening processes. Some of these hypotheses are highly intuitive (participation and screening) while others are counterintuitive (top management involvement and screening aggressiveness). The theory is tested using primary data on the development of 120 new products and their subsequent performance collected from firms in U. S. manufacturing industries. The data largely confirm the hypotheses and provide strong evidence of a trade-off between ambiguity and volatility that can be managed to improve new product performance. The exception is back-end participation, which should be lower in relatively more ambiguous environments, in contrast to the hypothesis. A comparison with three alternative models shows that ambiguity generally has a larger impact on appropriate new product development processes and success than either the level of volatility or the overall level of environmental uncertainty. A detailed examination of the estimated relationships shows that for ideation and screening, the relative level of ambiguity and volatility determines optimal new product development processes, whereas for top management involvement and participation, processes can be designed based primarily on the level of ambiguity alone, with less concern over the degree of volatility. The study highlights the importance of considering the composition of uncertainty in addition to its overall level in contingent approaches to new product development. Real-world examples of highly ambiguous and highly volatile new product development contexts are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We find that Epstein's (2010) Ellsberg-style thought experiments pose, contrary to his claims, no paradox or difficulty for the smooth ambiguity model of decision making under uncertainty developed by Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji (2005). Not only are the thought experiments naturally handled by the smooth ambiguity model, but our reanalysis shows that they highlight some of its strengths compared to models such as the maxmin expected utility model (Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989)). In particular, these examples pose no challenge to the model's foundations-interpretation of the model as affording a separation of ambiguity and ambiguity attitude or the potential for calibrating ambiguity attitude in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Different from previous experiments that used three representations of uncertain information for probabilities: best estimate, interval and sets of probabilities, we use visual display to represent different levels of uncertainty through varying amount of probabilistic information provided to subjects. Results confirm that the individuals' willingness to pay is higher when a larger amount of information is available. Further, individuals are found uncertainty averse for high probability of gain and uncertainty seekers for low probability of gain. Similarities in results across different representations of uncertainty indicate that the representation tested here is a viable method for communicating uncertainty to decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents an essay that focuses on Carl Schmitt's "Theory of the Partisan." It stresses the relationship between Schmitt's interest in guerilla warfare and his concerns with classic interstate war. It highlights the failure of Schmitt to subsume the complexities and contradictions of his own diagnosis into a determinate stance as well as his failure to resolve the ambiguity and uncertainty following the closure of the era of interstate war. It cites the role of Schmitt in reviving the theme of political theology.

Although prior research has shown that some people prefer a risky to an ambiguous option, this study further proposes that people's regulatory focus (promotion vs. prevention) might influence their ambiguity aversion. Three experiments have tested whether people with promotion focus showed less ambiguity aversion than those with prevention focus: The first experiment revealed that, compared with chronically promotion-focused individuals, prevention-focused subjects preferred a risky to an ambiguous option. In the second experiment, priming of the subjects' goal orientations led to similar results. Experiment 3 demonstrated that participants showed less ambiguity aversion for the expected performance of an investment product representative of promotion (e.g., a stock fund) rather than one representative of prevention (e.g., a bond fund). In other words, people showed less preference for a bond fund when the probability distribution of its expected performance was unknown than when it was known, whereas they showed less preference difference between known and unknown probability distributions for the expected performance of a stock fund. This study has integrated research pertaining to regulatory focus and ambiguity aversion, and the results have confirmed that the impact of regulatory focus on ambiguity aversion is robust across different methods and decision tasks. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes that task format (choosing or rejecting) moderates the effect of ambiguity aversion. Specifically, an ambiguous option is more attractive in a choosing task than in a rejecting task compared with a risky option. The author performed three experiments to test the propositions. In the first experiment, participants showed less ambiguity aversion when they had to choose a preferred option (risky or ambiguous) compared with when they had to reject an option they preferred less. In the second experiment with a monetary incentive, participants had to form a cash-equivalent estimate for both a risky gamble and an ambiguous gamble in a traditional Ellsberg scenario. The ambiguous option emerged as more attractive than the risky option in the choosing task compared with the rejecting task. The third experiment showed that the participants' decision rationale mediated the effect of the task format on choice. These three experiments support the proposition that task formats moderate the effect of ambiguity aversion. On the basis of the findings, the author provides suggestions for practice and further research. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty is an important concept within consumer behavior which to date is under-theorized, especially in relation to important downstream variables such as information search intention and purchase intention, and can therefore lead to a loss of utility. The authors propose a new multidimensional conceptualization of consumer uncertainty and develop a theoretical model of uncertainty within two consumer behavior contexts, namely avoidance of sweatshop apparel and avoidance of food additives. Drawing on literature-based insights as well as qualitative research and Expected Utility Theory, the authors develop hypotheses that offer insight into the potential antecedents (ambiguity and credibility) and consequences (search intention and purchase intention) of uncertainty. Using survey data, the authors test the hypotheses, finding strong support for many relationships hypothesized. Research and managerial implications are discussed. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In social identity analyses of leadership the role of leader group prototypicality (the extent to which the leader is representative of the collective identity) in leadership effectiveness is emphasized. We extend this analysis by identifying role ambiguity as a situational influence that feeds into the desire to reduce uncertainty, as a moderator of the relationship between leader group prototypicality and indicators of leadership effectiveness (perceived effectiveness, job satisfaction and turnover intentions). Role ambiguity is proposed to lead people to turn to their group memberships, making leadership effectiveness more contingent on the extent to which leaders are group prototypical. Results of a survey of n=368 employees of four Italian companies supported this hypothesis. Role ambiguity and leader group prototypicality interacted in predicting perceived effectiveness, job satisfaction and turnover intentions, such that leader group prototypicality was more strongly related to leadership effectiveness for employees experiencing greater role ambiguity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to assess and present analytic uncertainty to policymakers has emerged as an important topic in risk and policy analysis. Due to the complexity and deep uncertainty present in many forecasting domains, these reports are often fraught with analytic uncertainty. In three studies, we explore the effect of presenting probability assessments and analytic uncertainty through probability ranges. Participants were presented with mock intelligence forecasts that include narrative evidence as well as numerical probability assessments. Participants were sensitive to the ambiguity communicated through the confidence range. The narrative appeared to have a smaller effect on judgments when accompanied by a probability range as opposed to a point assessment. In one study, participants also thought that the probability range was more useful for decision making at a higher probability whereas the point estimate was more useful at a lower probability. When evaluating a forecast in hindsight, decisionmakers tended to report lower levels of blame and higher levels of source credibility for forecasts that reported ranges as compared to point assessments. These findings suggest that decisionmakers are not necessarily “ambiguity averse” in the forecasting context. Presenting ranges of probability may have distinct advantages as a way to communicate probability and analytic confidence to decisionmakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses scientific uncertainty about food related hazards and the need to address the problem. It presents a model related to food safety regulation modeling called the Knightian uncertainty. The model tries distinguishing between known probabilities and unknown probabilities. The model shows that a relatively ambiguity-averse regulator will choose to implement actions that are distinguished by a relatively small degree of ambiguity.

We develop a theory of optimal stopping under Knightian uncertainty. A suitable martingale theory for multiple priors is derived that extends the classical dynamic programming or Snell envelope approach to multiple priors. We relate the multiple prior theory to the classical setup via a minimax theorem. In a multiple prior version of the classical model of independent and identically distributed random variables, we discuss several examples from microeconomics, operation research, and finance. For monotone payoffs, the worst-case prior can be identified quite easily with the help of stochastic dominance arguments. For more complex payoff structures like barrier options, model ambiguity leads to stochastic changes in the worst-case beliefs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a model of decision under ambiguity deemed vector expected utility, or VEU. In this model, an uncertain prospect, or Savage act, is assessed according to (a) a baseline expected-utility evaluation, and (b) an adjustment that reflects the individual's perception of ambiguity and her attitudes toward it. The adjustment is itself a function of the act's exposure to distinct sources of ambiguity, as well as its variability. The key elements of the VEU model are a baseline probability and a collection of random variables, or adjustment factors, which represent acts exposed to distinct ambiguity sources and also reflect complementarities among ambiguous events. The adjustment to the baseline expected-utility evaluation of an act is a function of the covariance of its utility profile with each adjustment factor, which reflects exposure to the corresponding ambiguity source. A behavioral characterization of the VEU model is provided. Furthermore, an updating rule for VEU preferences is proposed and characterized. The suggested updating rule facilitates the analysis of sophisticated dynamic choice with VEU preferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Instream flows may be essential in protecting aquatic species that are threatened or endangered. An economic model of the optimal allocation of water under pure uncertainty is developed, with particular attention paid to the situation when a species characterized by critical depensation is affected by instream flows. We adopt the notion of pure uncertainty that Frank Knight and Daniel Ellsberg intended, which applies when decision makers cannot reduce their uncertainty to a unique probability distribution. Following recent work by Hansen, Sargent, and others, we employ robust control as a way to deal with this problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most risk assessments assume uncertainty may be decomposed into variability and incertitude. Language is often overlooked as a source of uncertainty, but linguistic uncertainty may be pervasive in workshops, committees, and other face-to-face language-based settings where it can result in misunderstanding and arbitrary disagreement. Here we present examples of linguistic uncertainty drawn from qualitative risk analysis undertaken in stakeholder workshops and describe how the uncertainties were treated. We used a process of iterative re-assessment of likelihoods and consequences, interspersed with facilitated discussion, to assist in the reduction of language-based uncertainty. The effects of this process were evident as changes in the level of agreement among groups of assessors in the ranking of hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parental deployment has substantial effects on the family system, among them ambiguity and uncertainty. Youth in military families are especially affected by parental deployment because their coping repertoire is only just developing; the requirements of deployment become additive to normal adolescent developmental demands. Focus groups were used to inquire about uncertainty, loss, resilience, and adjustment among youth aged 12–18 that had a parent deployed, most often to a war zone. The nature of uncertainty and ambiguous loss was explored. Response themes included overall perceptions of uncertainty and loss, boundary ambiguity, changes in mental health, and relationship conflict. These accounts suggest that ambiguous loss is a useful concept for understanding the experiences of these youth and for structuring prevention and intervention efforts.http://bkstrm1.epnet.com:8080/ai/images/save.gifSave [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research shows that, owing to the presence of uncertainty and ambiguity, new ventures have great difficulties in defining a viable business model from the outset and that minor or major adaptations to this initial business model are needed as the venture evolves. Technology-based companies are confronted with particularly high degrees of uncertainty and ambiguity. This paper therefore focuses on new technology-based ventures as a special case worth investigating. Most of the entrepreneurship literature studies adaptation at the individual level. However, many new technology-based firms are founded by a team of entrepreneurs. This paper therefore looks at how existing literature at the company level can inform us about adaptation in new technology-based companies. It starts by relating the concept of adaptation in new technology-based ventures to the existing literature on organizational adaptation at the firm level. Based on an overview of existing literature at the firm level, a propositional model is then put forward, describing (1) the process of adaptation and (2) the factors enabling adaptation in new technology-based ventures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building on the Ramsey-de Finetti idea of event exchangeability, we derive a characterization of probabilistic sophistication without requiring any of the various versions of monotonicity, continuity, or comparative likelihood assumptions imposed by Savage (1954), Machina and Schmeidler (1992), and Grant (1995). Our characterization identifies a unique and finitely-addictive subjective probability measure over an algebra of events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]