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Objectives: This paper examines the ethnic and gender differentials in high blood pressure (HBP), diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), arthritis and asthma among older people in Malaysia, and how these diseases along with other factors affect self-rated health. Differentials in the prevalence of non-communicable diseases among older people are examined in the context of socio-cultural perspectives in multi-ethnic Malaysia. Methods: Data for this paper are obtained from the 2004 Malaysian Population and Family Survey. The survey covered a nationally representative sample of 3,406 persons aged 50 and over, comprising three main ethnic groups (Malays, Chinese and Indians) and all other indigenous groups. Bivariate analyses and hierarchical logistic regression were used in the analyses. Results: Arthritis was the most common non-communicable disease (NCD), followed by HBP, diabetes, asthma and CHD. Older females were more likely than males to have arthritis and HBP, but males were more likely to have asthma. Diabetes and CHD were most prevalent among Indians, while arthritis and HBP were most prevalent among the Indigenous groups. Older people were more likely to report poor health if they suffered from NCD, especially CHD. Controlling for socio-economic, health and lifestyle factors, Chinese were least likely to report poor health, whereas Indians and Indigenous people were more likely to do so. Chinese that had HBP were more likely to report poor health compared to other ethnic groups with the same disease. Among those with arthritis, Indians were more likely to report poor health. Conclusion: Perceived health status and prevalence of arthritis, HBP, diabetes, asthma and CHD varied widely across ethnic groups. Promotion of healthy lifestyle, early detection and timely intervention of NCDs affecting different ethnic groups and gender with socio-cultural orientations would go a long way in alleviating the debilitating effects of the common NCDs among older people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The worldwide spread of a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus in 2009 showed that influenza remains a significant health threat, even for individuals in the prime of life. This paper focuses on the unusually high young adult mortality observed during the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. Using historical records from Canada and the U.S., we report a peak of mortality at the exact age of 28 during the pandemic and argue that this increased mortality resulted from an early life exposure to influenza during the previous Russian flu pandemic of 1889–90. We posit that in specific instances, development of immunological memory to an influenza virus strain in early life may lead to a dysregulated immune response to antigenically novel strains encountered in later life, thereby increasing the risk of death. Exposure during critical periods of development could also create holes in the T cell repertoire and impair fetal maturation in general, thereby increasing mortality from infectious diseases later in life. Knowledge of the age-pattern of susceptibility to mortality from influenza could improve crisis management during future influenza pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objectives of this paper are to predict life years lost associated with obesity-related diseases (ORDs) for U.S. non-smoking adults, and to examine the relationship between those ORDs and mortality. Data from the National Health Interview Survey, 1997–2000, were used. We employed mixed proportional hazard models to estimate the association between those ORDs and mortality and used simulations to project life years lost associated with the ORDs. We found that obesity-attributable comorbidities are associated with large decreases in life years and increases in mortality rates. The life years lost associated with ORDs is more marked for younger adults than older adults, for blacks than whites, for males than females, and for the more obese than the less obese. Using U.S. non-smoking adults aged 40 to 49 years as an example to illustrate percentage of the life years lost associated with ORDs, we found that the mean life years lost associated with ORDs for U.S. non-smoking black males aged 40 to 49 years with a body mass index above 40 kg/m2 was 5.43 years, which translates to a 7.5% reduction in total life years. White males of the same age range and same degree of obesity lost 5.23 life years on average – a 6.8% reduction in total life years, followed by black females (5.04 years, a 6.5% reduction in life years), and white females (4.7 years, a 5.8% reduction in life years). Overall, ORDs increased chances of dying and lessened life years by 0.2 to 11.7 years depending on gender, race, BMI classification, and age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Social support has been widely known as a protective factor for the emotional well-being (EWB) of older adults, but less studies have investigated the roles of different sources of social support (i.e., family and friend support) on different facets of EWB (i.e., positive affect and negative affect) simultaneously. Methodology and Findings: In this study, the associations between family/friend support and positive/negative affect were investigated in a sample of 700 Chinese elderly. The EWB and social support were measured with a 12-item affective wordlist (Kahneman et al., 2004) and a self-prepared questionnaire. The results showed that (1) the order of contact frequency and mutual support followed a hierarchical order from spouse, children, to friends; (2) zero-order correlations of both family support and friend support were associated with more positive affect and less negative affect; and when compared with the relative role of family and friend support, (3) spouse (children if spouse is not available) support had greater contribution on decreasing negative affect, while friend support had greater influence on increasing positive affect, even after controlling the demographic, self-rated health and life events variables. Conclusion: Family and friend support play different roles on the two facets of EWB of the elderly. These results were better explained in light of the task specificity model rather than the hierarchical compensatory model. Moreover, positive affect may be enhanced by friend support (based on personal interests and selectable) rather than family support (bonded by kinship and not selectable), which added evidences to the socioemotional selectivity theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Adverse lifestyle factors have been associated with increased mortality, but data are lacking on their combined effect in developing populations, which we address in the present study. Methods: In a death registry-based, case-control study among Hong Kong Chinese aged 30+y, proxy-reported lifestyle factors 10 y ago were collected for 21,363 cases (81% of all deaths) and 12,048 living controls. Risks associated with poor diet, inactivity, heavy alcohol intake, and smoking for all-cause and cause-specific mortality, adjusting for potential confounders, were determined, and excess deaths for the Chinese population were calculated. Results: Adjusted odds ratios for all-cause mortality were 1.15 (95% CI 1.09, 1.23), 1.34 (1.27, 1.43), 1.36 (1.21, 1.52), and 1.58 (1.46, 1.70) for poor diet, inactivity, heavy alcohol intake and smoking, respectively. Increasing numbers of adverse lifestyle factors were associated with a dose-dependent increase in adjusted odds ratios of 1.30 (1.20, 1.40), 1.67 (1.54, 1.81), 2.32 (2.08, 2.60), and 3.85 (3.12, 4.75) for 1, 2, 3, and 4 risk factors relative to those with none. The population attributable fraction for all-cause, all-CVD and all-cancer mortality were 26.6%, 15.0%, and 32.1%, resulting in an excess of 2,017,541; 489,884; and 607,517 deaths annually, respectively. Although smoking was associated with the greatest excess loss of life (867,530), heavy drinking (680,466), and physical inactivity (678,317) were similarly important. Conclusion: Adverse lifestyle factors contribute to one quarter of all deaths in China. Improving lifestyle practices, particularly focussing on moderating alcohol intake and increasing activity, and smoking cessation are critical to reducing the lifestyle-associated health burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the beginning of the 1970s, Sweden was the country where both women and men enjoyed the world's longest life expectancy. While life expectancy continues to be high and increasing, Sweden has been losing ground in relation to other leading countries. Methods: We look at life expectancy over the years 1970–2008 for men and women. To assess the relative contributions of age, causes of death, and smoking we decompose differences in life expectancy between Sweden and two leading countries, Japan and France. This study is the first to use this decomposition method to observe how smoking related deaths contribute to life expectancy differences between countries. Results: Sweden has maintained very low mortality at young and working ages for both men and women compared to France and Japan. However, mortality at ages above 65 has become considerably higher in Sweden than in the other leading countries because the decrease has been faster in those countries. Different trends for circulatory diseases were the largest contributor to this development in both sexes but for women also cancer played a role. Mortality from neoplasms has been considerably low for Swedish men. Smoking attributable mortality plays a modest role for women, whereas it is substantially lower in Swedish men than in French and Japanese men. Conclusions: Sweden is losing ground in relation to other leading countries with respect to life expectancy because mortality at high ages improves more slowly than in the leading countries, especially due to trends in cardiovascular disease mortality. Trends in smoking rates may provide a partial explanation for the trends in women; however, it is not possible to isolate one single explanatory factor for why Sweden is losing ground. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent reports suggest that immigrants from Middle Eastern countries are a high-risk group for type 2 diabetes (T2D) compared with Swedes, and that the pathogenesis of T2D may be ethnicity-specific. Deregulation of microRNA (miRNA) expression has been demonstrated to be associated with T2D but ethnic differences in miRNA have not been investigated. The aim of this study was to explore the ethnic specific expression (Swedish and Iraqi) of a panel of 14 previously identified miRNAs in patients without T2D (including those with prediabetes) and T2D. Methods: A total of 152 individuals were included in the study (84 Iraqis and 68 Swedes). Nineteen Iraqis and 14 Swedes were diagnosed with T2D. Expression of the 14 selected miRNAs (miR-15a, miR-20, miR-21, miR-24, miR-29b, miR-126, miR-144, miR-150, miR-197, miR-223, miR-191, miR-320a, miR-486-5p, and miR-28-3p) in plasma samples was measured by real-time PCR. Results: In the whole study population, the expression of miR-24 and miR-29b was significantly different between T2D patients and controls after adjustment for age, sex, waist circumference, family history of T2D, and a sedentary lifestyle. Interestingly, when stratifying the study population according to country of birth, we found that higher expression of miR-144 was significantly associated with T2D in Swedes (OR = 2.43, p = 0.035), but not in Iraqis (OR = 0.54, p = 0.169). The interaction test was significant (p = 0.017). Conclusion: This study suggests that the association between plasma miR-144 expression and T2D differs between Swedes and Iraqis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The prevalence of major depressive disorder (MDD) is higher in those with low levels of educational attainment, the unemployed and those with low social status. However the extent to which these factors cause MDD is unclear. Most of the available data comes from studies in developed countries, and these findings may not extrapolate to developing countries. Examining the relationship between MDD and socio economic status in China is likely to add to the debate because of the radical economic and social changes occurring in China over the last 30 years. Principal findings: We report results from 3,639 Chinese women with recurrent MDD and 3,800 controls. Highly significant odds ratios (ORs) were observed between MDD and full time employment (OR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.25–0.46, logP = 78), social status (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.77–0.87, logP = 13.3) and education attainment (OR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.86–0.90, logP = 6.8). We found a monotonic relationship between increasing age and increasing levels of educational attainment. Those with only primary school education have significantly more episodes of MDD (mean 6.5, P-value = 0.009) and have a clinically more severe disorder, while those with higher educational attainment are likely to manifest more comorbid anxiety disorders. Conclusions: In China lower socioeconomic position is associated with increased rates of MDD, as it is elsewhere in the world. Significantly more episodes of MDD occur among those with lower educational attainment (rather than longer episodes of disease), consistent with the hypothesis that the lower socioeconomic position increases the likelihood of developing MDD. The phenomenology of MDD varies according to the degree of educational attainment: higher educational attainment not only appears to protect against MDD but alters its presentation, to a more anxious phenotype. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of cumulative adaptive culture has received widespread interest in recent years, especially the factors promoting its occurrence. Current evolutionary models suggest that an increase in population size may lead to an increase in cultural complexity via a higher rate of cultural transmission and innovation. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the role of natural selection in the evolution of cultural complexity. Here we use an agent-based simulation model to demonstrate that high selection pressure in the form of resource pressure promotes the accumulation of adaptive culture in spite of small population sizes and high innovation costs. We argue that the interaction of demography and selection is important, and that neither can be considered in isolation. We predict that an increase in cultural complexity is most likely to occur under conditions of population pressure relative to resource availability. Our model may help to explain why culture change can occur without major environmental change. We suggest that understanding the interaction between shifting selective pressures and demography is essential for explaining the evolution of cultural complexity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To date, there are no known estimates of the prevalence of chronic kidney disease within Cambodia, the vast majority of whose citizens live in rural areas with limited access to renal replacement therapy. Methods: Observational analysis of patients from the Takeo province in Cambodia who presented to MoPoTsyo, a non-governmental organization, for screening and management of diabetes mellitus between 2010 and 2012 (n = 402; 75% females). Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using the CKD-Epi equation. Results: On average, women were younger, with a higher percentage of hypercholesterolemia but also high-density lipoprotein level. Men had a higher serum creatinine level (1.31 mg/dl) than that of women (1.13 mg/dl) at 95% CI. More than half of all screened patients had a reduced eGFR; 60% (95% CI 55%, 65%) had an eGFR<60 ml/min/1.73 m2; 54% (49%, 59%) had an eGFR 30–60 ml/min/1.73 m2, and 5.7% (3.4%, 8.0%) with eGFR 15–30 ml/min/1.73 m2. Women had a greater prevalence of stage 3 CKD (57% women vs. 47% men) and stage 4 CKD (7.0% vs. 2.0%). The adjusted odds ratio for females compared to males having an eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 was 3.19 (95% CI 1.78, 5.43; p value<0.001). Thirty-two percent of patients lost ≥5 ml/min/1.73 m2 eGFR during median follow-up time of 433 days (IQR 462 days) days. Conclusions: Over one-half of Cambodians with diabetes mellitus had reduced eGFR, implying a point-prevalence of chronic kidney disease of 1.2% in among adult Cambodians within the country. This high burden of kidney disease in a society that lacks universal access to renal replacement therapy underscores the importance of early diagnosis – a largely unmet need in Cambodia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Spanish government recently announced an official fast-track path to citizenship for any individual who is Jewish and whose ancestors were expelled from Spain during the inquisition-related dislocation of Spanish Jews in 1492. It would seem that this policy targets a small subset of the global Jewish population, that is, restricted to individuals who retain cultural practices associated with ancestral origins in Spain. However, the central contribution of this manuscript is to demonstrate how and why the policy is far more likely to apply to a very large fraction (i.e., the vast majority) of Jews. This claim is supported using a series of genealogical models that include transmissible “identities” and preferential intra-group mating. Model analysis reveals that even when intra-group mating is strong and even if only a small subset of a present-day population retains cultural practices typically associated with that of an ancestral group, it is highly likely that nearly all members of that population have direct genealogical links to that ancestral group, given sufficient number of generations have elapsed. The basis for this conclusion is that not having a link to an ancestral group must be a property of all of an individual’s ancestors, the probability of which declines (nearly) superexponentially with each successive generation. These findings highlight unexpected incongruities induced by genealogical dynamics between present-day and ancestral identities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to assess whether the Government of Kenya's Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children (Kenya CT-OVC) can reduce the risk of HIV among young people by postponing sexual debut. The program provides an unconditional transfer of US$20 per month directly to the main caregiver in the household. An evaluation of the program was implemented in 2007–2009 in seven districts. Fourteen Locations were randomly assigned to receive the program and fourteen were assigned to a control arm. A sample of households was enrolled in the evaluation in 2007. We revisited these households in 2011 and collected information on sexual activity among individuals between 15–25 years of age. We used logistic regression, adjusted for the respondent's age, sex and relationship to caregiver, the age, sex and schooling of the caregiver and whether or not the household lived in Nairobi at baseline, to compare rates of sexual debut among young people living in program households with those living in control households who had not yet entered the program. Our results, adjusted for these covariates, show that the program reduced the odds of sexual debut by 31 percent. There were no statistically significant effects on secondary outcomes of behavioral risk such as condom use, number of partners and transactional sex. Since the CT-OVC provides cash to the caregiver and not to the child, and there are no explicit conditions associated with receipt, these impacts are indirect, and may have been achieved by keeping young people in school. Our results suggest that large-scale national social cash transfer programs with poverty alleviation objectives may have potential positive spillover benefits in terms of reducing HIV risk among young people in Eastern and Southern Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although whole human genome sequencing can be done with readily available technical and financial resources, the need for detailed analyses of genomes of certain populations still exists. Here we present, for the first time, sequencing and analysis of a Turkish human genome. We have performed 35x coverage using paired-end sequencing, where over 95% of sequencing reads are mapped to the reference genome covering more than 99% of the bases. The assembly of unmapped reads rendered 11,654 contigs, 2,168 of which did not reveal any homology to known sequences, resulting in ∼1 Mbp of unmapped sequence. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) discovery resulted in 3,537,794 SNP calls with 29,184 SNPs identified in coding regions, where 106 were nonsense and 259 were categorized as having a high-impact effect. The homo/hetero zygosity (1,415,123∶2,122,671 or 1∶1.5) and transition/transversion ratios (2,383,204∶1,154,590 or 2.06∶1) were within expected limits. Of the identified SNPs, 480,396 were potentially novel with 2,925 in coding regions, including 48 nonsense and 95 high-impact SNPs. Functional analysis of novel high-impact SNPs revealed various interaction networks, notably involving hereditary and neurological disorders or diseases. Assembly results indicated 713,640 indels (1∶1.09 insertion/deletion ratio), ranging from −52 bp to 34 bp in length and causing about 180 codon insertion/deletions and 246 frame shifts. Using paired-end- and read-depth-based methods, we discovered 9,109 structural variants and compared our variant findings with other populations. Our results suggest that whole genome sequencing is a valuable tool for understanding variations in the human genome across different populations. Detailed analyses of genomes of diverse origins greatly benefits research in genetics and medicine and should be conducted on a larger scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A specification of mortality or survivorship provides respective explicit details about mortality's or survivorship's relationships with one or more other variables (e.g., age, sex, etc.). Previous studies have discovered and analyzed diverse specifications of mortality or survivorship; these discoveries and analyses suggest that additional specifications of mortality or survivorship have yet to be discovered and analyzed. In consistency with previous research, multivariable limited powered polynomials regression analyses of mortality and survivorship of selected humans (Swedes, 1760–2008) and selected insects (caged medflies) show age-specific, historical-time-specific, environmental-context-specific, and sex-specific mortality and survivorship. These analyses also present discoveries of hitherto unknown lifespan-specific, contemporary-aggregate-size-specific, and lifespan-aggregate-size-specific mortality and survivorship. The results of this investigation and results of previous research help identify variables for inclusion in regression models of mortality or survivorship. Moreover, these results and results of previous research strengthen the suggestion that additional specifications of mortality or survivorship have yet to be discovered and analyzed, and they also suggest that specifications of mortality and survivorship indicate corresponding specifications of frailty and vitality. Furthermore, the present analyses reveal the usefulness of a multivariable limited powered polynomials regression model-building approach. This article shows that much has yet to be learned about specifications of mortality or survivorship of diverse kinds of individuals in diverse times and places. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life History Theory predicts that extrinsic mortality risk is one of the most important factors shaping (human) life histories. Evidence from contemporary populations suggests that individuals confronted with high mortality environments show characteristic traits of fast life-history strategies: they marry and reproduce earlier, have shorter birth intervals and invest less in their offspring. However, little is known of the impact of mortality experiences on the speed of life histories in historical human populations with generally higher mortality risk, and on male life histories in particular. Furthermore, it remains unknown whether individual-level mortality experiences within the family have a greater effect on life-history decisions or family membership explains life-history variation. In a comparative approach using event history analyses, we study the impact of family versus individual-level effects of mortality exposure on two central life-history parameters, ages at first marriage and first birth, in three historical human populations (Germany, Finland, Canada). Mortality experience is measured as the confrontation with sibling deaths within the natal family up to an individual's age of 15. Results show that the speed of life histories is not adjusted according to individual-level mortality experiences but is due to family-level effects. The general finding of lower ages at marriage/reproduction after exposure to higher mortality in the family holds for both females and males. This study provides evidence for the importance of the family environment for reproductive timing while individual-level mortality experiences seem to play only a minor role in reproductive life history decisions in humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the absence of reliable systems for registering rare types of vital events large surveys are required to measure changes in their rates. However some events such as maternal deaths are widely known about in the community. This study examined the utility of asking respondents about events in their neighbourhood as an efficient method for measuring relative rates of rare health events such as maternal and infant deaths. A survey was conducted in the health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) in Matlab, Bangladesh, which includes two areas with different health care regimes. Adult women were asked about any maternal deaths; multiple births; infant deaths, live births and some other events they knew of in a small specified area around their home. Agreement between HDSS records and survey responses was moderate or better (kappa≥0.44) for all the events and greatest for maternal deaths (kappa = 0.77) with 84% being reported. Most events were more likely to be reported if they were recent (p<0.05). Infant mortality rate in one area was 0.56 times that in the other which was well reflected by the ratio of survey results (0.53). Simulations were used to study the ability of the method to detect differences in maternal mortality ratio. These suggested that a sample size around 5000 would give 80% power to detect a 50% decrease from a baseline of 183 which compared well with an estimated sample size around 10 times larger using the direct sisterhood method. The findings suggest that the Neighbourhood Method has potential for monitoring relative differences between areas or changes over time in the rates of rare demographic events, requiring considerably smaller sample sizes than traditional methods. This raises the possibility for interventions to demonstrate real effects on outcomes such as maternal deaths where previously this was only feasible by indirect methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Studies examining the relation of information processing speed, as measured by reaction time, with mortality are scarce. We explored these associations in a representative sample of the US population. Methods: Participants were 5,134 adults (2,342 men) aged 20–59 years from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III, 1988–94). Results: Adjusted for age, sex, and ethnic minority status, a 1 SD slower reaction time was associated with a raised risk of mortality from all-causes (HR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.12, 1.39) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.17, 1.58). Having 1 SD more variable reaction time was also associated with greater risk of all-cause (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.19, 1.55) and CVD (HR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.33, 1.70) mortality. No associations were observed for cancer mortality. The magnitude of the relationships was comparable in size to established risk factors in this dataset, such as smoking. Interpretation: Alongside better-established risk factors, reaction time is associated with increased risk of premature death and cardiovascular disease. It is a candidate risk factor for all-cause and cause-specific mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While evidence of the contribution of racial discrimination to ethnic health disparities has increased significantly, there has been less research examining relationships between ascribed racial/ethnic categories and health. It has been hypothesized that in racially-stratified societies being assigned as belonging to the dominant racial/ethnic group may be associated with health advantage. This study aimed to investigate associations between socially-assigned ethnicity, self-identified ethnicity, and health, and to consider the role of self-reported experience of racial discrimination in any relationships between socially-assigned ethnicity and health. Methods: The study used data from the 2006/07 New Zealand Health Survey (n = 12,488), a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of adults 15 years and over. Racial discrimination was measured as reported individual-level experiences across five domains. Health outcome measures examined were self-reported general health and psychological distress. Results: The study identified varying levels of agreement between participants' self-identified and socially-assigned ethnicities. Individuals who reported both self-identifying and being socially-assigned as always belonging to the dominant European grouping tended to have more socioeconomic advantage and experience less racial discrimination. This group also had the highest odds of reporting optimal self-rated health and lower mean levels of psychological distress. These differences were attenuated in models adjusting for socioeconomic measures and individual-level racial discrimination. Conclusions: The results suggest health advantage accrues to individuals who self-identify and are socially-assigned as belonging to the dominant European ethnic grouping in New Zealand, operating in part through socioeconomic advantage and lower exposure to individual-level racial discrimination. This is consistent with the broader evidence of the negative impacts of racism on health and ethnic inequalities that result from the inequitable distribution of health determinants, the harm and chronic stress linked to experiences of racial discrimination, and via the processes and consequences of racialization at a societal level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Drowning deaths are devastating and preventable. Public perception does not regard hot weather as a common scenario for drowning deaths. The objective of our study was to test the association between hot weather and drowning risk. Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective case-crossover analysis of all unintentional drowning deaths in Ontario, Canada from 1999 to 2009. Demographic data were obtained from the Office of the Chief Coroner. Weather data were obtained from Environment Canada. We used the pair-matched analytic approach for the case-crossover design to contrast the weather on the date of the drowning with the weather at the same location one week prior (control period). Results: We identified 1243 drowning deaths. The mean age was 40 years, 82% were male, and most events (71%) occurred in open water. The pair-matched analytic approach indicated that temperatures exceeding 30°C were associated with a 69% increase in the risk of outdoor drowning (OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.23–2.25, p = 0.001). For indoor drowning, however, temperatures exceeding 30°C were not associated with a statistically significant increase in the risk of drowning (OR = 1.50, 95% CI 0.53–4.21, p = 0.442). Adult men were specifically prone to drown in hot weather (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.19–2.34, p = 0.003) yet an apparent increase in risk extended to both genders and all age groups. Conclusion: Contrary to popular belief, hot weather rather than cold stormy weather increases the risk of drowning. An awareness of this risk might encourage greater use of drowning prevention strategies known to save lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: For the pending National Claims Database in Japan, researchers will not have access to death information in the enrollment files. We developed and evaluated a claims-based definition of death. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used healthcare claims and enrollment data between January 2005 and August 2009 for 195,193 beneficiaries aged 20 to 74 in 3 private health insurance unions. We developed claims-based definitions of death using discharge or disease status and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). We calculated sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values (PPVs) using the enrollment data as a gold standard in the overall population and subgroups divided by demographic and other factors. We also assessed bias and precision in two example studies where an outcome was death. The definition based on the combination of discharge/disease status and CCI provided moderate sensitivity (around 60%) and high specificity (99.99%) and high PPVs (94.8%). In most subgroups, sensitivity of the preferred definition was also around 60% but varied from 28 to 91%. In an example study comparing death rates between two anticancer drug classes, the claims-based definition provided valid and precise hazard ratios (HRs). In another example study comparing two classes of anti-depressants, the HR with the claims-based definition was biased and had lower precision than that with the gold standard definition. Conclusions/Significance: The claims-based definitions of death developed in this study had high specificity and PPVs while sensitivity was around 60%. The definitions will be useful in future studies when used with attention to the possible fluctuation of sensitivity in some subpopulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A criminal career can be either general, with the criminal committing different types of crimes, or specialized, with the criminal committing a specific type of crime. A central problem in the study of crime specialization is to determine, from the perspective of the criminal, which crimes should be considered similar and which crimes should be considered distinct. We study a large set of Swedish suspects to empirically investigate generalist and specialist behavior in crime. We show that there is a large group of suspects who can be described as generalists. At the same time, we observe a non-trivial pattern of specialization across age and gender of suspects. Women are less prone to commit crimes of certain types, and, for instance, are more prone to specialize in crimes related to fraud. We also find evidence of temporal specialization of suspects. Older persons are more specialized than younger ones, and some crime types are preferentially committed by suspects of different ages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Two World Health Organization comparative assessments rated the quality of South Africa’s 1996 mortality data as low. Since then, focussed initiatives were introduced to improve civil registration and vital statistics. Furthermore, South African cause-of-death data are widely used by research and international development agencies as the basis for making estimates of cause-specific mortality in many African countries. It is hence important to assess the quality of more recent South African data. Methods: We employed nine criteria to evaluate the quality of civil registration mortality data. Four criteria were assessed by analysing 5.38 million deaths that occurred nationally from 1997–2007. For the remaining five criteria, we reviewed relevant legislation, data repositories, and reports to highlight developments which shaped the current status of these criteria. Findings: National mortality statistics from civil registration were rated satisfactory for coverage and completeness of death registration, temporal consistency, age/sex classification, timeliness, and sub-national availability. Epidemiological consistency could not be assessed conclusively as the model lacks the discriminatory power to enable an assessment for South Africa. Selected studies and the extent of ill-defined/non-specific codes suggest substantial shortcomings with single-cause data. The latter criterion and content validity were rated unsatisfactory. Conclusion: In a region marred by mortality data absences and deficiencies, this analysis signifies optimism by revealing considerable progress from a dysfunctional mortality data system to one that offers all-cause mortality data that can be adjusted for demographic and health analysis. Additionally, timely and disaggregated single-cause data are available, certified and coded according to international standards. However, without skillfully estimating adjustments for biases, a considerable confidence gap remains for single-cause data to inform local health planning, or to fill gaps in sparse-data countries on the continent. Improving the accuracy of single-cause data will be a critical contribution to the epidemiologic and population health evidence base in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Measurement of the level and composition of maternal mortality depends on the definition used, with inconsistencies leading to inflated rates and invalid comparisons across settings. This study investigates the differences in risk of death for women in their reproductive years during and outside the maternal risk period (pregnancy, delivery, puerperium), focusing on specific causes of infectious, non-communicable and external causes of death after separating out direct obstetrical causes. Methods: Data on all deaths of women aged 15–49 years that occurred in the Agincourt sub-district between 1992 and 2010 were obtained from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (HDSS) located in rural South Africa. Causes of death were assessed using a validated verbal autopsy instrument. Analysis included 2170 deaths, of which 137 occurred during the maternal risk period. Findings: Overall, women had significantly lower mortality during the maternal risk period than outside it (age-standardized RR = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.63–0.89). This was true in most age groups with the exception of adolescents aged 15–19 years where the risk of death was higher. Mortality from most causes, other than obstetric causes, was lower during the maternal risk period except for malaria, cardiovascular diseases and violence where there were no differences. Lower mortality was significant for HIV/AIDS (RR = 0.29, P<0.0001), cancers (RR = 0.10, P<0.023), and accidents (RR = 0, P<0.0001). Interpretation: In this rural setting typical of much of Southern Africa, pregnancy was largely protective against the risk of death, most likely because of a strong selection effect amongst those women who conceived successfully. The concept of indirect cause of maternal death needs to be re-examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In April 2009, the most recent pandemic of influenza A began. We present the first estimates of pandemic mortality based on the newly-released final data on deaths in 2009 and 2010 in the United States. Methods: We obtained data on influenza and pneumonia deaths from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Age- and sex-specific death rates, and age-standardized death rates, were calculated. Using negative binomial Serfling-type methods, excess mortality was calculated separately by sex and age groups. Results: In many age groups, observed pneumonia and influenza cause-specific mortality rates in October and November 2009 broke month-specific records since 1959 when the current series of detailed US mortality data began. Compared to the typical pattern of seasonal flu deaths, the 2009 pandemic age-specific mortality, as well as influenza-attributable (excess) mortality, skewed much younger. We estimate 2,634 excess pneumonia and influenza deaths in 2009–10; the excess death rate in 2009 was 0.79 per 100,000. Conclusions: Pandemic influenza mortality skews younger than seasonal influenza. This can be explained by a protective effect due to antigenic cycling. When older cohorts have been previously exposed to a similar antigen, immune memory results in lower death rates at older ages. Age-targeted vaccination of younger people should be considered in future pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are increasingly in demand as pollinators for various key agricultural food crops, but globally honey bee populations are in decline, and honey bee colony failure rates have increased. This scenario highlights a need to understand the conditions in which colonies flourish and in which colonies fail. To aid this investigation we present a compartment model of bee population dynamics to explore how food availability and bee death rates interact to determine colony growth and development. Our model uses simple differential equations to represent the transitions of eggs laid by the queen to brood, then hive bees and finally forager bees, and the process of social inhibition that regulates the rate at which hive bees begin to forage. We assume that food availability can influence both the number of brood successfully reared to adulthood and the rate at which bees transition from hive duties to foraging. The model predicts complex interactions between food availability and forager death rates in shaping colony fate. Low death rates and high food availability results in stable bee populations at equilibrium (with population size strongly determined by forager death rate) but consistently increasing food reserves. At higher death rates food stores in a colony settle at a finite equilibrium reflecting the balance of food collection and food use. When forager death rates exceed a critical threshold the colony fails but residual food remains. Our model presents a simple mathematical framework for exploring the interactions of food and forager mortality on colony fate, and provides the mathematical basis for more involved simulation models of hive performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The study aims to evaluate the predictors of non-prescription medicine purchasing patterns among pharmacy patrons in Malaysia. Methods: A cross-sectional nationwide study was undertaken in 2011 in sixty randomly selected community pharmacies across 14 Malaysian states. A pharmacy exit survey was conducted over a 6-month period across Malaysia. A one-stage random cluster sampling technique was employed as there was no national sampling framework available for conducting this survey. Face-to-face interviews using a validated and pre-tested questionnaire were conducted by trained data collectors. The non-prescription medicine purchasing pattern was explored and analysed descriptively. Chi-square/Fisher exact test was used to determine the association between study variables. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to determine the predictors of type of non-prescription medicine purchased. Results: A total of 2729 pharmacy patrons agreed to participate in 60 selected pharmacy outlets. A total of 3462 non-prescription medicine were purchased during the study period with an average of 1.3 medicines per participant. Most of the non-prescription medicine purchased was meant for alimentary tract and metabolism (31.8%), followed by respiratory system (19.4%) and musculoskeletal system (15.8%) usage. Factors found to be associated with the choice of non-prescription medicine purchased were age group [χ2 = 170.75, (df = 57), p<0.01], locality [χ2 = 48.16, (df = 19), p<0.01], gender [χ2 = 32.93, (df = 13), p = 0.002], ethnic group [χ2 = 118.89, (df = 39), p<0.01] and type of occupation [χ2 = 222.434, (df = 117), p<0.01]. Non-prescription medicine purchased defined about 20% of the variance in the combination of predictors such as locality, gender, age, ethnicity, type of occupation and household income. Conclusion: The predictors for selection of non-prescription medicine were locality (urban or rural), gender, age, ethnicity, type of occupation and household income per month. Future studies need to explore the safety and effectiveness of using these non-prescription medicines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Cryptococcosis is an invasive fungal infection causing substantial morbidity and mortality. Prognostic factors are largely derived from trials conducted prior to the modern era of antifungal and potent combination antiretroviral therapies, immunosuppression, and transplantation. Data describing the clinical features and predictors of mortality in a modern cohort are needed. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients at our institution diagnosed with cryptococcosis from 1996 through 2010. Data included demographics, clinical features, diagnostics, treatment, and outcomes. Results: We identified 302 individuals: 108 (36%) human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive, 84 (28%) organ transplant recipients (OTRs), and 110 (36%) non-HIV, non-transplant (NHNT) patients including 39 with no identifiable immunodeficiency. Mean age was 49 years, 203 (67%) were male and 170 (56%) were white. All-cause mortality at 90 days was 21%. In multivariable logistic regression analyses, cryptococcemia (OR 5.09, 95% CI 2.54–10.22) and baseline opening pressure >25 cmH2O (OR 2.93, 95% CI 1.25–6.88) were associated with increased odds of mortality; HIV-positive patients (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.19–1.16) and OTRs (OR 0.46, 95% CI 0.21–1.05) had lower odds of death compared to NHNT patients. Conclusions: Predictors of mortality from cryptococcosis in the modern period include cryptococcemia, high intracranial pressure, and NHNT status while drug(s) used for induction and historical prognostic factors including organ failure syndromes and hematologic malignancy were not associated with mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Associations between socio-economic status (SES), personality and inflammation were examined to determine whether low SES subjects scoring high on neuroticism or hostility might suffer relatively higher levels of inflammation than affluent subjects. Methods: In a cross-sectional design, 666 subjects were recruited from areas of high (most deprived – “MD”) and low (least deprived – “LD”) deprivation. IL-6, ICAM-1, CRP and fibrinogen were measured along with demographic and health-behaviour variables, and personality traits of neuroticism, extraversion and psychoticism (hostility). Regression models assessed the prediction of inflammation as a function of personality, deprivation and their interaction. Results: Levels of CRP and IL-6 were an increasing function of neuroticism and extraversion only in LD subjects opposite trends were seen in MD subjects. The result was ascribed parsimoniously to an inflammatory ceiling effect or, more speculatively, to SES-related health-behaviour differences. Psychoticism was strongly associated with ICAM-1 in both MD and LD subjects. Conclusions: The association between neuroticism, CRP and IL-6 may be reduced in MD subjects confirming speculation that the association differs across population sub-groups. The association between psychoticism and ICAM-1 supports evidence that hostility has adverse effects upon the endothelium, with consequences for cardiovascular health. Health interventions may be more effective by accounting for personality-related effects upon biological processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) emerged as sexually transmitted infection among HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM). We studied whether HCV circulated in identifiable high-risk MSM subcultures and performed phylogenetic analysis. Methods: HIV-infected MSM were recruited at the sexually transmitted infections (STI) outpatient clinic and a university HIV clinic in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 2008–2009. Participants completed a detailed questionnaire and were tested for HCV antibodies and RNA, with NS5B regions sequenced for analysis of clusters. Results: Among 786 participants, the median age was 43 (IQR 37–48) years, and 93 (11.8%) were HCV-positive. Seropositivity was associated with belonging to subcultures identified as leather (aOR 2.60; 95% CI 1.56–4.33), rubber/lycra (aOR 2.15; 95% CI 1.10–4.21), or jeans (aOR 2.23; 95% CI 1.41–3.54). The two largest HCV-RNA monophyletic clusters were compared; MSM in cluster I (genotype 1a, n = 13) reported more partners (P = 0.037) than MSM in cluster II (genotype 4d, n = 14), but demographics, subculture characteristics and other risk behaviors did not differ significantly between the two clusters. Discussion: HCV infection is associated with identifiable groups of leather/rubber/lycra/jeans subcultures among HIV-infected MSM. Separate epidemiological HCV transmission networks were not revealed. Active HCV screening and treatment within specific subcultures may reduce HCV spread among all MSM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Particular features of human female life history, such as short birth intervals and the early cessation of female reproduction (menopause), are argued to be evidence that humans are ‘cooperative breeders’, with a reproductive strategy adapted to conditions where mothers receive substantial assistance in childraising. Evolutionary anthropologists have so far largely focussed on measuring the influence of kin on reproduction in natural fertility populations. Here we look at the effect in a present-day low-fertility population, by analysing whether kin affect parity progression in the British Household Panel Study. Two explanatory variables related to kin influence significantly increase the odds of a female having a second birth: i) having relatives who provide childcare and ii) having a larger number of frequently contacted and emotionally close relatives. Both effects were measured subject to numerous socio-economic controls and appear to be independent of one another. We therefore conclude that kin may influence the progression to a second birth. This influence is possibly due to two proximate mechanisms: kin priming through communication and kin assistance with childcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on evolutionary theory, Trivers & Willard (TW) predicted the existence of mechanisms that lead parents with high levels of resources to bias offspring sex composition to favor sons and parents with low levels of resources to favor daughters. This hypothesis has been tested in samples of wealthy individuals but with mixed results. Here, I argue that both sample selection due to a high number of missing cases and a lacking specification of the timing of wealth accumulation contribute to this equivocal pattern. This study improves on both issues: First, analyses are based on a data set of U.S. billionaires with near-complete information on the sex of offspring. Second, subgroups of billionaires are distinguished according to the timing when they acquired their wealth. Informed by recent insights on the timing of a potential TW effect in animal studies, I state two hypotheses. First, billionaires have a higher share of male offspring than the general population. Second, this effect is larger for heirs and heiresses who are wealthy at the time of conception of all of their children than for self-made billionaires who acquired their wealth during their adult lives, that is, after some or all of their children have already been conceived. Results do not support the first hypothesis for all subgroups of billionaires. But for males, results are weakly consistent with the second hypothesis: Heirs but not self-made billionaires have a higher share of male offspring than the U.S. population. Heiresses, on the other hand, have a much lower share of male offspring than the U.S. average. This hints to a possible interplay of at least two mechanisms affecting sex composition. Implications for future research that would allow disentangling the distinct mechanisms are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the regional and temporal differences in the statistical relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and national-level population size. The authors analyze panel data from 1960 to 2005 for a diverse sample of nations, and employ descriptive statistics and rigorous panel regression modeling techniques. Initial descriptive analyses indicate that all regions experienced overall increases in carbon emissions and population size during the 45-year period of investigation, but with notable differences. For carbon emissions, the sample of countries in Asia experienced the largest percent increase, followed by countries in Latin America, Africa, and lastly the sample of relatively affluent countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania combined. For population size, the sample of countries in Africa experienced the largest percent increase, followed countries in Latin America, Asia, and the combined sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Findings for two-way fixed effects panel regression elasticity models of national-level carbon emissions indicate that the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size is much smaller for nations in Africa than for nations in other regions of the world. Regarding potential temporal changes, from 1960 to 2005 the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size decreased by 25% for the sample of Africa countries, 14% for the sample of Asia countries, 6.5% for the sample of Latin America countries, but remained the same in size for the sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Overall, while population size continues to be the primary driver of total national-level anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, the findings for this study highlight the need for future research and policies to recognize that the actual impacts of population size on national-level carbon emissions differ across both time and region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compared several techniques for assigning Hispanic ethnicity to records in data systems where this information may be missing, variously making use of country of origin, surname, race, and county of residence. We considered an algorithm in use by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR), a variation of this developed by the authors, a “fast and frugal” algorithm developed with the aid of recursive partitioning methods, and conventional logistic regression. With the exception of logistic regression, each approach was rule-based: if specific criteria were met, an ethnicity assignment was made; otherwise, the next criterion was considered, until all records were assigned. We evaluated the algorithms on a sample of over 500,000 female clients from the New York State Cancer Services Program for whom self-reported Hispanic ethnicity was known. We found that all approaches yielded similarly high accuracy, sensitivity, and positive predictive value in all parts of the state, from areas with very low to very high Hispanic populations. An advantage of the fast and frugal method is that it consists of a small number of easily remembered steps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Determine the acceptability and epidemiological impact of increases in HIV testing in gay men in New South Wales (NSW), Australia– particularly pertinent when considering treatment as prevention and the need to reduce undiagnosed infections. Methods: We conducted an online survey and focus groups to assess whether increases in HIV testing would be acceptable to gay men in NSW. In parallel, we assessed the potential impact of increases in testing coverage and/or frequency using an individual-based model of HIV transmission. Results: If sexual practices and the rate of initiating HIV treatment are unchanged then increasing HIV testing reduces infections. Increasing testing frequency has the largest impact, with a 13.8% reduction in HIV infections over 10 years if the ∼55–75% of men who test at least once per year increased their testing frequency to four times per year. If testing levels decrease from current levels then we expect an increase in HIV infections with a sharply rising trend over time. Increasing HIV testing would be acceptable if testing was more convenient. However, only ∼25% of men surveyed were ‘very likely’ to increase their level of HIV testing. Men delayed or avoided testing due to the slowness in obtaining results and if they believed they had not put themselves at risk. Conclusions: An increase in HIV testing alone is unlikely to reduce HIV incidence substantially in NSW gay men– however, the relatively high testing levels need to continue to prevent an increase in HIV infections. In jurisdictions with lower levels of HIV testing, increases in testing coverage and frequency are likely to have a larger impact. Successful treatment as prevention interventions will require increases in testing rates; such increases would be acceptable to gay men in NSW but only if more convenient testing and rapid communication of results were available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]