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Better-educated workers form many more long-distance job matches, and they move more quickly following local employment shocks. I argue this is a consequence of larger dispersion in wage offers, independent of geography. In a frictional market, this generates larger surpluses for workers in new matches, which can better justify the cost of moving - should the offer originate from far away. The market is then "thinner" but better integrated spatially. I motivate my hypothesis with new evidence on mobility patterns and subjective moving costs; and I test it using wage returns to local and long-distance matches over the jobs ladder. [This paper supersedes an earlier (2015) version entitled "Why are Higher Skilled Workers More Mobile Geographically? The Role of the Job Surplus" (CEP Discussion Paper 1338). Additional support was provided by the Royal Economic Society.]

Over the last two decades, Mexico has experienced macroeconomic stability, an open trade regime, and substantial progress in education. Yet average workers' earnings have stagnated, and earnings of those with higher schooling have fallen, compressing the earnings distribution and lowering the returns to education. This paper argues that distortions that misallocate resources toward less-productive firms explain these phenomena, because these firms are less intensive in well-educated workers compared with more-productive ones. It shows that while the relative supply of workers with more years of schooling has increased, misallocation of resources toward less productive firms has persisted. These two trends have generated a widening mismatch between the supply of, and the demand for, educated workers. The paper breaks down worker earnings into observable and unobservable firm and individual worker characteristics, and computes a counterfactual earnings distribution in the absence of misallocation. The main finding is that in the absence of misallocation average earnings would be higher, and that earnings differentials across schooling levels would widen, raising the returns to education. A no-misallocation path is constructed for the wage premium. Depending on parameter values, this path is found to be rising or constant, in contrast to the observed downward path. The paper concludes arguing that the persistence of misallocation impedes Mexico from taking full advantage of its investments in the education of its workforce. [This paper is a product of the Strategy and Operations Team, Development Economics Vice Presidency.]

In this report, employment retention and advancement under Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) was examined by reviewing research findings regarding labor market development since 1996. According to the research, most of those moving from welfare to work have found employment in low-wage jobs and experienced frequent job losses and limited upward mobility. The following were among the factors deemed predictive of employment retention among welfare leavers: starting off in higher-paying jobs; working steadily, initially; and finding jobs with benefits. Factors predictive of job advancement included starting off with higher-paying jobs, changing jobs strategically and voluntarily (but not too often), and having or acquiring higher basic skills and postsecondary education or training. The following were among the recommendations offered for federal policymakers: (1) expand TANF to include reducing family poverty and promoting family economic well-being; (2) require that states' TANF plans describe how federal TANF funds and other resources will be used to promote employment retention and advancement; (3) if federal work participation rates are not replaced by outcome-based measures, give states broad flexibility to determine the nature of work activities; and (4) require that federal agencies vigorously monitor state and local implementation of civil rights and employment rights protections afforded under current law. (Contains 31 endnotes.) (MN)

Although academia is becoming more like business in many respects--not all of them positive--it has not borrowed one of the best attributes of business culture: its tradition of developing leadership through succession planning. As a result, much talent is underutilized. This includes, most prominently, that of women and minorities, who tend not to be perceived as leadership material. This paper makes a distinction between two levels of academic administrators: deans and above, who are professional administrators, and department chairs and below, who could be characterized as casual administrators, since all faculty members engage in managerial activities as directors of academic programs, principal investigators of grants, committee members or chairs. In Clark Kerr's terminology, casual administrators are members of the guild, while professional administrators are members of the corporation. At present, women and minorities are having considerable trouble moving from the guild to the corporation. This paper proposes that the connection between the guild and the corporation be strengthened and become more of a two-way street. As William J. Rothwell suggests, people should have dual-career ladders and be able to move back and forth between academic and managerial jobs. Such problems as recency bias, the halo or horn effect, the Pygmalion effect, and pigeonholing must be addressed head on. This will require courage, imagination and training. A bibliography is included.

Educators in public schools in the United States are typically enrolled in defined-benefit pension plans, which penalize across-plan mobility. We use administrative data from Missouri to examine how the mobility penalties affect the labor market for school leaders, and show that pension borders greatly reduce leadership flows across schools. Our most conservative estimates indicate that removing a pension border that divides two groups of schools will increase leadership flows between the groups by roughly 100 percent. We consider the implications of our findings for workforce quality in schools near pension borders in Missouri. Our results are of general interest given that thousands of public schools operate near pension boundaries nationwide. Appended are: (1) Details for the Pension-Wealth Calculations; (2) Procedure for Determining the Effective Number of Simulations; and (3) Supplementary Tables. (Contains 6 figures, 12 tables and 45 footnotes.)

Much has been written about the importance of school leadership, but there is surprisingly little systematic evidence on this topic. This paper presents preliminary estimates of key elements of the market for school principals, employing rich panel data on principals from Texas State. The consideration of teacher movements across schools suggests that principals follow patterns quite similar to those of teachers--preferring schools that have less demands as indicated by higher income students, higher achieving students, and fewer minority students. Looking at the impact of principals on student achievement, the authors find some small but significant effects of the tenure of a principal in a school. More significant, however, are the estimates of variations in principal effectiveness. The variation in principal effectiveness tends to be largest in high poverty schools, consistent with hypothesis that principal ability is most important in schools serving the most disadvantaged students. Finally, considering principal mobility, the authors find that principals who stay in a school tend to be more effective than those who move to other schools. (Contains 9 tables and 8 footnotes.)

Forecasts of Australian labor market growth, net replacement needs, and net job openings to 2006 are presented using the nine-way grouping of occupations described by (Maglen and Shah, 1999). Analysis is based on classifying occupations by whether they are advantaged by globalization and technological change, relatively insulated, or vulnerable. Globally advantaged occupations are grouped by whether they are, by nature, conceptual or technical. Insulated occupations are in-person professionals, skilled workers, and low-skill workers. Vulnerable occupations are advanced skill, white-collar clerical, blue-collar operative, and manual low-skill. Findings indicate, in the medium term, overall growth in employment is expected to be 1.2 percent per year, and net replacement is expected to be 2.1 percent; turnover will create most job openings for new entrants. More than four of five jobs due to growth in employment are projected to be in the globally advantaged or insulated occupations with projected average growth rates of about 1.7 percent per year; the average for vulnerable occupations is 0.5 percent. Because of job turnover, a substantial number of job openings will be for new entrants in vulnerable occupations, with the net replacement rate of 2.0 percent. Insulated occupations with above average growth in employment have a relatively high rate of turnover, especially among low skill groups. More than one in five of job openings for new entrants is expected in in-person low-skill insulated occupations. Appendixes include a list of 18 references and a paper on replacement demand and growth. (YLB)

Debates on skill shortages and the aging of the population have markedly increased the attention given to Vocational Education and Training (VET) and to Technical and Further Education (TAFE). New roles for VET include new products, pedagogy and partnerships with industry, all with implications for staff development. TAFE has particular responsibilities for equity including concern for those in casual employment, for those not in employment, for indigenous peoples and regional communities. There is a need for increased private and public funding, with a strong case to be made for a long term funding agreement between the Commonwealth and the states that gives public recognition to the important and growing needs of the sector. (Contains 1 footnote and 2 tables.)

The recruitment and retention of Asian computer professionals by Canadian high-tech companies was examined by interviewing 8 Canadian-born information technology (IT) workers, 47 Asian-born IT workers, and 8 human resource (HR) professionals employed by high-tech companies in Ottawa. Of the 47 Asians, 33 stated that they did not know much about Canada before coming to Canada, and 41 did not experience any difficulties getting visas for themselves. Although the Canadian and non-Canadian IT workers had similar perceptions regarding workplace-related issues, 12 of the Asia workers complained of subtle discrimination at work. Twenty-nine Asian workers reported considering moving to the United States versus only two Canadian workers. All eight HR professionals spoke highly of the Asian IT professionals and their technical competence, although several expressed concerns about Asian workers' ability to communicate. Many Asian workers appeared to have misconceptions about tax rates, living costs, and employment opportunities in Canada and the United States. It was concluded that the Canadian government could help improve recruitment and retention of Asian IT workers in Canada by enabling them to bring their educated relatives from their homelands and by facilitating closer interaction and partnerships between educational institutions and the high-tech sector. (The bibliography lists 17 references. The interview guide and questionnaire are appended.) (MN)

Increasing the mobility of service providers, including professionals, via mutual recognition (of regulatory systems) agreements (MRAs) has become a significant issue worldwide. Despite increasing interest in MRAs, it may be argued that MRAs are but one of a larger range of major developments that have fueled current interest in occupational competence descriptors and professional practice. Other important developments are as follows: rapid and accelerating change; public dissatisfaction with the professions; the limited understanding of the nature of professional practice; the emergence of a knowledge society; globalization leading to a corporate model of service provision; and moves to alternative and flexible modes of service delivery. The claim that mutual recognition is but one issue among these major developments may be illustrated by the examples of the following accreditation schemes: (1) the Law Society of New South Wales Specialist Accreditation Scheme; (2) the regulatory model recently developed in the United States by the National Council of State Boards of Nursing; (3) the competence-based assessment strategy developed by the Dietitians Association of Australia; and (4) various practices being used to assess competence in 17 Australian professions. These examples demonstrate that the role of professional competence standards in MRAs and in professionals' mobility is far from clear. (Contains 25 references.) (MN)

The occupational pathways of a representative national sample of Australian school leavers were examined over a 7-year period after leaving school. The study was based on the initial vocational interests of male (n=1436) and female (n=1273) high school pupils and formed part of the longitudinal 1970 Youth in Transition study, a national probability sample of Australian youth. The interest inventory used was a 24-item questionnaire of the Holland typology of interests. In a followup over the 7-year period, the full-time occupation was classified in terms of realistic, investigative, artistic social, enterprising, or conventional interest categories. Results indicated a major disparity between initial vocational interests and occupational destinations at the commencement of a career. Sufficient evidence was found to argue that the vocational interests of youth were not always reflected by their initial occupational pathways. The results indicated greater congruence with the passage of time and pointed toward a period of career exploration followed by consistency. (Appendixes include 27 references, 1 figure, and 3 data tables.) (Author/YLB)

Data from the 1811 and 1851 census in England and Wales as well as other data from those countries in 1891 and 1921 were analyzed to investigate individuals' timing and extent of departure from the parental home. The authors found the following: (1) there was a gradual increase in the ages at which children left the parental home; (2) the pace of departure became more rapid over the entire period studied for males, although for females, the pace was increased in the twentieth century; (3) there was a decline in non-familial residence; and (4) there was a rise, especially in the twentieth century, in post-marriage co-residence with parents. The trends were attributed to a general decline in farm employment and domestic service (where employees had traditionally been given room and board) and the subsequent rise in urbanization and industrialization. The period from the mid-nineteenth century to the early twentieth century increasingly witnessed a divergence between the experience of leaving the parental home and entry into the labor market. The author suggested further research on the changing patterns of the timing of entry into the workplace. (Contains 17 tables and 73 references.) (AJ)

To examine the impact of rising wage inequality on lifetime wage growth, a study compared the wage mobility experienced by two cohorts of young white men from the National Longitudinal Surveys. The original cohort entered the labor market in the mid-1960s at the end of the economic boom and was followed through the end of the 1970s. The recent cohort entered the labor market in the early 1980s after the onset of economic restructuring and was followed through the mid-1990s. For each cohort, wage profiles were analyzed across 16 years using a mixed-effects model. Analysis indicated that wage growth during the critical years of career development had been hit on two fronts: it had both stagnated and become significantly more unequal. To the extent that wage growth represented upward mobility, the prospects for such mobility had clearly deteriorated in recent years. (Appendixes contain 48 references, 3 data tables, and 8 figures.) (YLB)

To determine whether there has been a secular rise in job instability among young adults over the past 3 decades, a study compared two National Longitudinal Survey cohorts of young white men. The first cohort entered the labor market in the late 1960s and early 1970s, the second during the late 1970s and early 1980s. The study examined longitudinal data on work history and schooling and found a significant increase in the rate of job changing across the two cohorts. The trend toward lower marriage rates and longer transitions into the labor market explained some increase. The economy's shift toward the service sector played an important role, although declines in stability occurred in traditionally unionized industries as well. The overall rise in instability resulted in shorter median tenures. Although greater job instability and shorter tenures are not necessarily a bad thing, findings indicated young workers in recent years failed to capture the all-important wage gains that were associated with job changing in the past. This deterioration in wage gains was felt largely by less educated workers, but inequality in these gains also increased for all education groups. In combination, findings suggested a decline in the long-term economic welfare among those who entered the labor market in the 1980s. (Appendixes contain the following: 43 references; comparison of estimates of job change rates; adjusting for attrition; permanent wage estimation; 5 tables; and 5 figures.) (Author/YLB)

Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NYSY) for 1979-92, an empirical analysis documented and characterized early labor market experiences of men and women in the U.S. economy. It explored the evolution of these labor market experiences over the first 5 years in the labor market and studied the relationships between them and adult labor market outcomes. The overriding goal was to shed light on the consequences of initial periods of "churning,""floundering about," or "mobility" in the labor market, to help assess whether faster transitions to stable employment relationships would be likely to lead to better adult labor market outcomes. Findings indicated that labor market outcomes toward the end of the 5-year postschooling period used were not driven very strongly by what happened in the first year or two in the labor market. Adult labor market outcomes (in the late 20s or early to mid-30s) were for the most part unrelated to early labor market experiences, especially for men. For women, in contrast, some evidence suggested that job stability and initial entry into a high-wage occupation had beneficial effects. The evidence did not present a compelling case for efforts to target the school-to-work transition, insofar as this implied changing the structure of youth labor markets so that workers became more firmly attached to an employer, or an industry or occupation, at younger ages. (Appendixes contain 56 references and 13 tables.) (YLB)

In the 1980s the outmigration from rural areas of young and well educated adults was prompted by the decline of rural industries and the resultant economic stress. This paper examines the issue of selective migration during the 1980s by comparing young people who left their hometown to those who stayed behind. Longitudinal survey data collected in the High School and Beyond datafile (1980-86) are used to analyze the individual and community level factors affecting the probability of migration from a hometown. Of the rural youth who were seniors in 1980, 40% had moved at least 50 miles from their hometown by 1986 and had gained advantages in education, income, and occupational status. Comparison of data between these migrants and those who did not migrate indicate that migrants: (1) continued their formal education at a higher rate than nonmigrants (77% compared to 54%), with 30% completing a four-year college program (compared to 10% of nonmigrants); (2) held professional or managerial jobs at a higher rate than nonmigrants (38% compared to 15%); (3) earned about 10% more than nonmigrants; (4) came from homes with better educated parents (64% compared to 46%); (5) had taken college preparatory classes (45% compared to 23%), and (6) had taken either the SAT or ACT (73% compared to 45%). Separate logistic regression analysis of community factors indicate: (1) youth in the rural Midwest and West are more likely to migrate than those in the South and Northeast; (2) higher average per capita income in the home county decreased the probability of migration; (3) higher high school expenditures per student increased migration probability; and (4) the greater the distance of the nearest four-year college, the more probable was eventual migration. Includes 17 references and 12 data tables. (ALL)

Assuming development is a process that involves the generation, diffusion, and realization of new opportunities, this paper discusses the following: (1) The Development Process: Facts and Issues (re: visible unemployment; rural to urban migration; the dualism of labor markets in the less developed countries; population growth; and the disequilibrium of economic life in the development stage); (2) The Attributes of Development Man (adaptive and innovative); (3) The Formation of Competencies and the Transmission of Information (an economic analysis of people-changing processes; skill mobility and the markets for "jobs" and "work"; how different types of competencies are acquired; information "fields" and "resistances" to information); (4) Toward Progressive Agriculture (target groups in education for agriculture; substitution and complementaries among schooling, extension, and research; maximizing the efficiency of information systems); (5) The Rural Nonfarm Economy (symbiotic relationships in the developing rural nonfarm economy; dualisms and continua in skills and in scale; education, communication, and innovation in the nonfarm enterprise); (6) Strategies for the Enlargement of Opportunities and Their Realization (the elusive meanings of integrated development; the interdependencies of education and development; economic incentives and agricultural progress; unleashing the energies and ingenuities of ordinary man). (JC)

This paper proposes a model for the process of attaining occupational status and income, where change in attainment is generated by the creation of vacant positions in social structure. The distribution of attainments, or the structure of inequality, is assumed fixed and described by a simple exponential or geometric distribution function, depending on whether attainment levels are assumed discrete or continuous. Persons leaving the labor force create chains of vacancies in this structure that present mobility opportunities for persons entering the labor force. The implications of the model for the attainment process derived from these considerations for status attainment research and stochastic models for job-mobility are discussed. (Author/JM)

The study of the mobility of the wood products labor force was made in response to a predicted decline in manpower needs for the wood products industry in western Oregon and western Washington. Variables affecting workers' employability and mobility were analyzed to determine the potential in Oregon for mobility within and out of the industry, the function of the labor market in distributing jobs, and the interface between the labor market and workers' adaptations. Hypotheses dealt with social marginalization, defined as the process of becoming economically obsolete, and job rationing, defined as the process by which one applicant is selected over another for a particular job. Because of the size of the population studied (a longitudinal study of 50) a random sampling of workers, and 20 in-depth profiles of workers); and because of acknowledged missing observations, evidence in some areas was mixed, and further research is planned. Data from the study are tabulated and discussed at length. Additional formal education and high firm seniority seemed to have low value, and results also suggested that although changing jobs can be a rational response to a tight labor market, the practice threatens workers' re-employability. (MDW)

This scholarly paper assesses biases due to measurement errors in structural equation models of the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status by estimating unobserved variable models with data from the remeasurement program of the 1973 Occupational Changes in Generation-II survey. It is noted that reports of social background and achievement variables by nonblack males are subject to strictly random errors, while reports of black males appear subject to significant nonrandom errors. When measurement errors are ignored for nonblacks, occupational returns to schooling are underestimated by about 15%, the effects of some background variables are underestimated by as much as 22%, and variation in socioeconomic achievements not attributable to education or social origins by as much as 27%. Biases appear to be substantially greater for nonblacks. Consequently ignoring measurement error exaggerates racial differences in returns to schooling and occupational inequality not attributable to social origins. (Author/AM)

This paper examines differences in patterns of career mobility between women and men over a five year period (1965-1970). First, it analyzes the career mobility of the sample in order to determine to what extent differences in mobility patterns are caused by differences in the occupational distribution of men and women, rather than by sex related individual attributes. Second, it analyzes the impact of labor force participation on mobility. To compare women's and men's occupational mobility, the report uses data from the 1970 Public Use Sample 1/100 (5 percent) state sample. In the case of intragenerational occupational mobility it is found that much of the association between location within the occupational structure in 1965 and 1970 can be explained by a mobility regime which differs little by sex. However, patterns of mobility into and out of the labor force do vary by sex, even when differences between men and women in their work patterns are taken into account. (Author/AM)

This paper attempts to analyze the changing nature of work in today's economy and to investigate employment problems and mobility opportunities for disadvantaged workers. Principal dimensions of employment opportunities in the "old economy" of the 1950s and 1960s are highlighted, and the impact of the emergence of the "new economy" on the aggregate structure of employment opportunities is identified. A short review follows of how major groups of disadvantaged workers have fared vis-a-vis this new structure of employment opportunities. The analysis of the transformation of employment opportunities is refined to show how the postwar expansion of the higher education system and recent technological advances have acted to alter required skills, the process of skill acquisition, and job characteristics. These major conclusions are reached: the trend towards labor market "bifurcation" need not imply that all jobs in the labor market's lower tiers are becoming de-skilled, labor market misadjustments are occurring that require attention, the economy's continuing shift from manual to cognitive processes will continue to place a premium on better schooling and higher level training and retraining, and vocational and higher education institutions will continue to assume increasing importance in opening avenues for upward mobility. (YLB)

This paper, the introductory chapter to a forthcoming book ("Financing Recurrent Education"), discusses the political and economic dimensions of life-long learning (recurrent education) and suggests methods by which a recurrent education system might be constructed and financed. The decline in youthful labor force entrants and forecasted changes in technology and the labor force are producing a need for a system that provides opportunities for education and training throughout the life cycle of workers. The author presents nine different motives for advocating the expansion of recurrent education and points out that this very diversity of approaches and motives may be the greatest political obstacle to its adoption and implementation. A bibliography is included. (MD/MLF)

This paper explores the following questions: Does the demand/supply allocation process affect the return migrants receive for their human capital attributes? Specifically, do returns to migration vary across places of destination, and does this variation reflect labor supply and demand differentials and/or other characteristics of places of destination? Analysis of the impact of selected characteristics of destinations on the socioeconomic attainment of migrants, using data for 1970 and changes between 1970 and 1976, reveals that substantial variation exists between Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA) with respect to annual earnings returns to occupational and educational attainment, and occupational attainment returns to educational attainment. The level of these returns not only declined across the board between 1970 and 1976, but between-SMSA variations increased as well. Analysis also indicates that SMSA differences in socioeconomic returns to migrants, particularly among the college educated, were more responsive to factors reflecting changing economic conditions than to those of nonmigrants in 1970, but changes in socioeconomic returns occurring during the 1970-76 period were not related to these factors for a smaller number of SMSA's. Tables illustrate the findings statistically. (Author/PS)

Reasons for occupational mobility are imperfect occupational matching, search, exogenous changes in the market or in the person, and movement along a career path. A positive or negative relationship between the level of schooling and occupational mobility depends on the type of mobility involved. Higher levels of schooling lead to careers comprised of a smaller number of occupations, thus reducing the probability of other types of mobility. This negative effect of schooling decreases with time in the labor market. Schooling also has a negative effect on the probability of upward mobility. However, when a control for the occupation of origin is performed, it is found that among workers in the same occupational group, the more educated are more likely to move up. The schooling effect is much stronger on intra-firm career mobility ("promotion") than on inter-firm career mobility. Given job turnover, more educated workers are also more likely to move up. This observation is partially explained by the fact that among those who leave the firm, the ratio of quits to layoffs increases with the level of schooling and also by the fact that among workers who are laid off, the more educated are more likely to move up. In addition, if the returns to schooling (in terms of wages) are lower while working in a specific occupation, the effect of schooling on the probability of being promoted from that occupation will be higher. (17 references) (Author/YLB)

The dimensions and determinants of positional inequality in the American occupational structure are examined. Using data from the 1972-1973 Quality of Employment Survey, dimensions of occupational differentiation with multiple discriminant analysis are constructed and a causal model is developed to represent the interrelationships of those dimensions. It is found that the differentiation of intrinsic occupational rewards is attributable largely to the educational and task requirements of occupations, while union, supervisory, and organizational resources available to occupational groupings are the strongest determinants of the differentiation of extrinsic rewards. Implications of these findings for functional and conflict theories of inequality in occupational rewards are discussed. (Author/HD)

In this study, the occupational advancement of black and white workers of comparable ages is compared through longitudinal census data. Two specific hypotheses are tested which propose (1) large and systematic racial differentials exist in the effect of mobility on occupational advancement between firms; and (2) differentials in intrafirm occupational advancement exist for workers of equivalent endowments within firms. A model of occupational advancement along with empirical variables from two sources of longitudinal data are discussed. Results indicate that neither the young nor the old men in the sample provide evidence of a systematic racial differential in the effect of mobility between firms on occupational advancement. The evidence on advancement within firms is said to be less unequivocal. Given the racial differential in initial occupational levels, however, small black-white differences in advancement are shown to appear within internal labor markets. (AM)

This study addresses questions such as (1) the extent to which formal training determines occupational mobility, (2) evidence of racial differences in the returns to formal training in terms of occupational advancement, (3) importance of structural factors representing labor market segmentation in determining occupational mobility, (4) the impact of employer shifts on occupational advancement, (5) existence by race of differential returns to mobility between firms. Results indicate a strong relationship between occupational advancement and formal vocational training for both racial groups. Structural factors represented by initial industry and region of residence are found to have little or no effect on advancement. A more important factor is considered to be the white-black difference in endowment of education. No evidence for a racial differential in the impacts of industry and geographical shifts on occupational mobility is found. No evidence to support the hypothesis that black turnover fails to result in upgrading because of their confinement to secondary sector jobs is indicated. (Author/AM)