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Ecosystems generate a wide range of benefits for humans, including some market goods as well as other benefits that are not directly reflected in market activity 1 . Climate change will alter the distribution of ecosystems around the world and change the flow of these benefits 2,3 . However, the specific implications of ecosystem changes for human welfare remain unclear, as they depend on the nature of these changes, the value of the affected benefits and the extent to which communities rely on natural systems for their well-being 4 . Here we estimate country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover, as projected by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) driven by general circulation climate models. Our results show that the annual population-weighted mean global flow of non-market ecosystem benefits valued in the wealth accounts of the World Bank will be reduced by 9.2% in 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-6.0 with respect to the baseline no climate change scenario and that the global population-weighted average change in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 is -1.3% of the baseline GDP. Because lower-income countries are more reliant on natural capital, these GDP effects are regressive. Approximately 90% of these damages are borne by the poorest 50% of countries and regions, whereas the wealthiest 10% experience only 2% of these losses., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

In a context marked by the intensification of climate change as well as an increase in the frequency and intensity of violent conflicts in Africa, this paper analyses the effects of vulnerability to climate change on conflict through the channel of migratory movements. Given the complex causal relationships between the variables, and to distinguish between their direct and indirect effects on conflicts, we employ structural equation modeling on a sample of 37 African countries observed between 1995 and 2017. The results show that vulnerability to climate change has both direct and indirect negative effects on internal conflict in Africa. An increase in vulnerability to climate change reduces the net stock of international migrants; while the net stock of migrants increases internal conflict. These effects are robust regardless of the components of the climate change vulnerability index considered and vary, however, according to the official language spoken and the level of development. In English-speaking and low-developing countries, the effects of climate change vulnerability on conflict remain negative, while in French- and Arabic-speaking as well as in more developed African countries, climate change vulnerability indirectly increases conflict through migration.In a given territory, the implementation of specific adaptation measures helps to reduce the level of vulnerability to climate change. Furthermore, the increase in conflicts caused by a reduction in vulnerability to climate change can be mitigated by a decrease in migratory movements through a better allocation of natural resources such as arable land and an increase in gross domestic product per capita. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of climate change on rich and poor countries across the world. We measure two indices of the relative impact of climate across countries, impact per capita, and impact per GDP. These measures sum market impacts across the climate-sensitive economic sectors of each country. Both indices reveal that climate change will have serious distributional impact across countries, grouped by income per capita. We predict that poor countries will suffer the bulk of the damages from climate change. Although adaptation, wealth, and technology may influence distributional consequences across countries, we argue that the primary reason that poor countries are so vulnerable is their location. Countries in the low latitudes start with very high temperatures. Further warming pushes these countries ever further away from optimal temperatures for climate-sensitive economic sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper illustrates the potential impacts of climate change on financial markets, focusing on their long-term significance. It uses a top-down modelling tool developed by Ortec Finance in partnership with Cambridge Econometrics that combines climate science with macro-economic and financial effects to examine the possible impacts of three plausible (not extreme) climate pathways. The paper first considers the impact on gross domestic product (GDP), finding that GDP is lower in all three pathways, with the most severe reduction in the Failed Transition Pathway where the Paris Agreement climate targets are not met. The model then translates these GDP impacts into financial market effects. In the Failed Transition Pathway, cumulative global equity returns are approximately 50% lower over the period 2020–2060 than in the climate-uninformed base case. For the other two pathways where the Paris Agreement targets are met, the corresponding figures are 15% and 25% lower returns than in the base case. Results are provided for other asset classes too. These demonstrate that climate change represents a significant market risk, with implications for financial planning, modelling and regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The demand for electricity is soaring, propelled not only by population and GDP growth but also the pressing effects of climate change. This study seeks to address the uncertainties surrounding future electricity demand by projecting monthly consumption in Florida, USA, taking into account diverse climate scenarios and their potential impacts. Our approach involves utilizing the degree-day method and constructing an energy consumption regressionmodel grounded in historical data. Key variables, including population, employment, GDP, electricity prices, temperature, and daylight hours, are systematically analyzed. This model acts as the fundamental basis for forecasting future electricity needs in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors across the state of Florida up to the year 2050, considering different climate scenarios. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, the residential sector foresees a substantial 63% increase in electricity demand from 2001-2019 to 2050. Under the more extreme RCP 8.5 scenario, this surge climbs to 65%. Meanwhile, the commercial and industrial sectors are expected to witness a 47% and 54% upswing in demand under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Intriguingly, heightened demand for cooling during scorching summers outweighs the reduced need for heating in winter, particularly in the residential sector. The current renewable energy policies fall short of addressing the impending climate-driven surge in electricity demand. To combat this, our recommendation is the implementation of a Renewable Portfolio Standard, aimed at significantly enhancing the proportion of renewables in Florida's electricity mix. This paper concludes with a set of crucial policy recommendations, imperative for steering a sustainable transition to renewable energy and effectively managing the impacts of extreme heat on people's lives. These recommendations serve as a strategic roadmap for navigating the evolving landscape of electricity demand amidst the complex challenges posed by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decarbonization of economies is seen as a high priority for many countries to reduce the impact of climate change. As such, policy makers need robust and reliable decoupling indicators to assess decarbonization progress. This paper utilizes a regression-based approach to estimate decoupling indicators and identify decoupling states in the transport sector. The proposed method is easy to use, data driven, providing robust and reliable estimates of decoupling elasticities and fits within existing policy frameworks. Analyzing the transport sector for 59 countries from across the world beginning 1970, only 16 are weakly decoupling. Most of these have been identified as being part of a group with sustained economy-wide CO2 reductions. Stronger and localized green transport policy action is needed to meet emissions targets for most countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing threat of global warming has prompted Malaysia to pledge a 45 % reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions intensity of gross domestic product (GPD) by 2030. The industrial sector is a critical area for mitigation, and carbon accounting, mitigation, and trading are crucial steps towards reducing emissions. While previous studies have focused on individual accounting, mitigation and offset assessment, a comprehensive and integrated approach is needed to guide Malaysian industries towards carbon neutrality. This paper proposes such a framework, which combines carbon accounting, mitigation, and offsetting measures. The paper also introduces the Carbon Mitigation Measures Index (CMI), which assesses carbon mitigation measures based on both their environmental and economic impacts. The proposed framework and CMI can serve as a guide for Malaysian industries to achieve their carbon neutrality goals and contribute to global efforts to mitigate climate change. By adopting this integrated approach, Malaysian industries can reduce their carbon footprint, meet national emissions reduction targets, and contribute to global efforts to combat climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate international trade determinants, paying special attention to variables related to climate change and non-tariff measures (NTMs), as they shape more and more world trade flows, with particular incidence on globalised goods, such as wine. Design/methodology/approach: Based on panel data of Port wine exports to 60 countries, between 2006 and 2018, a gravity model has been estimated through Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood. Explanatory variables include NTMs, mean temperature, temperature anomaly, gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate, ad valorem equivalent tariffs and home bias. Findings: The findings show that exports are inversely related to both mean temperature and temperature anomaly in importing countries. Regarding NTMs, it is found that only part of them are trade deterrent. Additionally, purchasing power in importing countries is one of the main determinants of Port wine exports. Research limitations/implications: The results show that, besides traditional economic variables, policymakers and wineries should include in their exports' decisions the impact of variables related to climate change and NTMs. Originality/value: The novelty of this paper is to incorporate the impact of climatic variability of importing countries as a determinant of international trade of wine. Most former studies inspired of the gravity model consider explanatory variables such as GDP and exchange rate, and more recent ones started to consider NTMs too, however, this study may be the first paper to include the impact of climate change (quantified by mean temperature and temperature anomaly in importing countries) on exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A rapidly growing body of research suggests that modern economies find themselves at existential crossroads: both prosperity and survival are a function of consumption-fueled economic growth. Prosperity seemingly depends on it; survival is made increasingly impossible by it. Economists measure economic growth by what is generally recognized as a deeply flawed yet still hegemonic economic performance indicator—GDP. This paper suggests that growth based in increased consumption is in need of reconceptualization no matter what the measure, and invites the research community of the Journal of Consumer Culture to investigate what such a research agenda might look like. Economic logic itself, this essay argues, needs to be re-embedded in science, rather than operate as a self-referential logic outside of natural boundaries. Biophysical limits force us to question economic growth as a goal. A wide range of social pathologies, furthermore, from inequality to stress to loneliness, raise deep questions about the desirability of growth. The essay is a self-conscious provocation to the discipline of economics: there is an emerging need to move beyond a conceptualization of the economy as a self-contained system of monetary market exchanges defining the relations between production, distribution, and consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate change is one of the leading problems in the today’s world. The rise of the renewable energy meets the sustainable growth objectives since it can decelerate the climate change. For this purpose, this paper investigates the relationship between the renewable energy consumption and the economic growth in the United States (USA). Theoretically, the paper constructs the growth model that captures the effects of the economic complexity indicator as a measure of capabilities and productivity for exporting the “complex” (high value-added) products. Empirically, the paper uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimations and observes that both the economic complexity and the renewable energy consumption lead to a higher rate of economic growth in the USA for the period from 1965 to 2016. The paper also discusses the potential policy implications of the results for achieving the sustainable growth objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has established and assigned target responsibilities for local officials in energy conservation and created an evaluation indicator, which is a key institutional arrangement that provides local officials with political incentives to promote carbon abatement policies. In this paper, we elaborate on the relationship between China's target responsibility system and CO2 emissions using interprovincial panel data, grouping provinces into Eastern, Central and Western regions to compare China's CO2 emissions convergence between the periods of the 10th Five-year Plan and the 11th Five-year Plan. The analysis indicates that the target responsibility system does not noticeably change local officials' political incentives to engage in carbon abatement because the effect of the target responsibility system for energy conservation seems to be overshadowed by and subject to gross domestic product (GDP) growth targets. Against the backdrop of growing international pressure on climate change issues, this paper argues that China must include in the target responsibility system an indicator of absolute CO2 emissions reduction as a policy objective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Economics & Environment / Ekonomia i Środowisko is the property of Fundacja Ekonomistow Srodowiska i Zasobow Naturalnych and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Concerns about the human effects of climate change have contributed to forecasts of how populations in drought‐prone and flood‐prone areas would respond to these events. Empirical studies have predicted that human migration has been among the critical resilient strategy in responding to the impact of climate change. To obtain a more comprehensive understanding of the climate–migration relationship, the impacts of climate change on international migration flows from sub‐Saharan Africa nations to South Africa are investigated empirically in this paper. The study employed static and dynamic models and panel data from 35 countries in sub‐Saharan Africa, spanning 1990 to 2017. The findings are as follows: (1) The analysis shows that historical temperature has a positive and statistically significant effect on outmigration in agriculture‐dependent nations. (2) The analysis shows that agricultural value added as a share in gross domestic product has a negative and statistically significant effect on outmigration in agriculture‐dependent nations. (3) The results also show that geographic location and development level of a country, in addition to dependency on agriculture, are key factors in the climate change–international migration nexus. Policy implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent literature has explored the ambiguous theoretical links between inequality and environmental impact. However, few studies have investigated those links in developing countries. This paper explores the role of income inequality in the per capita emission of CO2 in Latin America. We estimate the impact of income inequality on carbon dioxide emissions, while simultaneously considering national income levels. The results suggest quadratic relationships between environmental impact and both gross domestic product per capita and inequality. Income inequality influences CO2 emissions, but the direction depends on income level. The complexities of the results are analytically explored in the paper. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because their assets and income represent such a small share of national wealth, the impacts of climate change on poor people, even if dramatic, will be largely invisible in aggregate economic statistics such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Assessing and managing future impacts of climate change on poverty requires different metrics, and specific studies focusing on the vulnerability of poor people. This special issue provides a set of such studies, looking at the exposure and vulnerability of people living in poverty to shocks and stressors that are expected to increase in frequency or intensity due to climate change, such as floods, droughts, heat waves, and impacts on agricultural production and ecosystem services. This introduction summarizes their approach and findings, which support the idea that the link between poverty and climate vulnerability goes both ways: poverty is one major driver of people's vulnerability to climate-related shocks and stressors, and this vulnerability is keeping people in poverty. The paper concludes by identifying priorities for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This paper aims to analyze the possibilities of the agricultural sector of the Western Balkan to assess compliance with the European Green Deal, which provides for the implementation of activities, which should enable the transition to sustainable agriculture and climate change mitigation. This paper is among the first to present the causality of agriculture and climate change (status, mitigation, and perspectives) in general and in light of the European Green Deal for the Western Balkan territory. Main text: Agricultural production is a leading industry in the Western Balkan. Climate change and predictions that temperatures will increase by 4 °C in the coming decades pose a risk not only to agricultural production but also to the safety of the population, because agriculture is the main source of income for a significant part of it. Uncontrolled floods and droughts caused by climate change are a particular danger for agriculture and human existence. This paper demonstrates that agriculture in the WB can be considered critically affected by climate change. Conclusions: Unless appropriate measures are taken and risk management for water resources and agriculture is improved, there will be a further decrease in precipitation and an increase in dry days by 20%. Such a scenario endangers not only the already vulnerable climate sustainability and biodiversity of the region but also the existence of a population employed in agriculture and the contribution of the agricultural sector to the gross domestic product. However, future planning based on the Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) and European Green Deal, the adoption of a related regulatory framework, the establishment and regular monitoring of supporting financing mechanisms, regional cooperation, and improving risk management (with emphasis on the local level) can mitigate the present impact and decrease the expected negative impact of climate change on agriculture and biodiversity in the WB region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a global problem that challenges humanity. Global warming, which is expected to bring extreme weather events, exposes human health, ecological systems, and ultimately the economy to great risks. Although the economy affects climate change, climate change also affects the economy. The effects of climate change on the economy in the short term can be positive or negative, but in the long term there is a consensus that global GDP will on average experience a significant reduction depending on the intensity of global warming. In addition to the small direct impact through disruption of economic inputs, the indirect impact through the transmission mechanism of productivity and investments on GDP is complex. However, climate impacts are not expected to have an equal negative impact on all economies in the world, and the Republic of North Macedonia is in the group of counties less vulnerable to climate change. In this paper, we will apply the SECAP methodology for assessment of climate risks and vulnerability of the local economy of the City of Skopje. For this purpose, we will do an in-depth analysis of the local economy through the sectoral approach. The City of Skopje is an administrative city, and the sectors that are most vulnerable to climate change, such as agriculture, forestry, fishing and construction, are marginal. An increase in the intensity of the extreme weather is expected, especially the increase in temperatures in all seasons with increased precipitation and flash floods. Therefore, an increase in climatic risks is expected in the local economy in the City of Skopje in relation to the current vulnerability. Аlthough some sectors would be negatively affected by climatic change, the general assessment is that the economy of the City of Skopje will remain moderately vulnerable to future climate risks. It is because of the expectations for strong adaptability of local businesses and change of business models according to the new economic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the non-technological innovation system for building low-carbon cities in China. It establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system and grading standards for low-carbon cities, concerning both technological innovation and non-technological innovation factors. Defining non-technological innovation factors as independent variables, GDP per capita as the main control variable, and low-carbon development and carbon productivity as dependent variables, this paper examines the contribution of non-technological innovation to the building of low-carbon cities. The result shows that non-technological innovation manifested a significant trajectory of progress. It demonstrates that the continuous improvement to non-technological innovation system should effectively promote the further development of low-carbon cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the beginning of the 21st century, within the framework of food consumption in the Czech Republic, organic food consumption has also begun to be statistically monitored. This consumption is influenced by several factors, such as consumer demand, their changing attitudes, and beliefs about the correctness of their consumption, but also the owners and managers of companies producing organic food and their willingness and decision to offer organic food to consumers. The content of this paper is to search for the connections between selected macroeconomic indicators and their influence on total household consumption and, within it, on the consumption of certain groups of food and organic food. More than twenty years of statistical monitoring shows how selected macroeconomic indicators and food consumption, including organic foods and their main groups, were developed. During approximately twenty years of development, it is possible to identify several fluctuations with varying intensity in growth, stagnation and decrease. An example is the current economic situation manifested by significant movements in the leading macroeconomic indicators to varying extents in the Czech Republic and several other countries, not only in Europe. The deterioration of the macroeconomic indicators results understandably raises concerns about the future development of consumption and the applicability of the generally produced more expensive organic food on the market. Therefore, The author team investigated the correlation between selected macroeconomic indicators, total food consumption and, in particular, the consumption of selected organic foods and evaluated the course of changes over time between 1993-2021. The influence of selected macro indicators on changes in the consumption of organic foods in the Czech Republic was assessed. The previously published papers deal with food and organic food consumption from different perspectives but not from the perspective of examining the correlation between consumption and three chosen macroeconomic indicators. The present contribution thus aims to fill this existing gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the 1990-2010 natural disaster and carbon emission data of G20 countries to examine the impact of natural disasters and climate change on the natural capital component of inclusive wealth. Our study shows that climate change and GDP have no positive impacts on the growth of natural capital. By contrast, trade openness and natural disaster frequency contribute to the accumulation of natural capital in G20 countries. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the growth of natural capital and the magnitude of natural disaster. Natural capital growth is not affected very much by small disasters. By contrast, large disasters tend to make the growth of natural capital fall sharply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the most dangerous threats to human beings, and therefore, it is of great importance for the researchers to inform the policy makers of the threats of climate change and global warming. One of the main causes of climate change is the greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO2 emissions. In this paper, we try to find a nexus between energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in the United States, China, and India, known as three most polluting countries in the world. For this purpose, we applied the wavelet correlation and the partial wavelet coherence approaches during the period 1971–2013. The empirical results for the United States show that the GDP is positively correlated with the CO2 emissions and energy consumption in all frequencies. For China, there is a significant positive relationship between the GDP and CO2 emissions/energy consumption for the short-term horizon. However, for India, although there is a significant positive relationship between the GDP and CO2 emissions, the nexus between the GDP and the energy consumption is not clear. Furthermore, the pollution haven hypothesis was confirmed by the obtained empirical results. Based on our study, we suggest the policy makers in these three countries making supportive decisions for the producers to use modern environment-friendly technologies and renewable energies in their products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Forest Research is the property of Canadian Science Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The high reliance of Africa's GDP on agriculture makes its economic growth susceptible to climate change. The vulnerability of Africa is further worsened by the strong interlinkage that the agricultural sector has with other productive sectors. To drive policy implications that transform economic performance in Africa, it becomes important to understand the linkages between climate and economy of the region. This paper examines the effects that climate change has on economic performance in sub-Saharan African nations. Based on cross-country panel climatic data that takes account of the absorptive mechanism, it estimates the contribution of climate change to economic performance in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The estimator is developed based on the OLS, Fixed Effect, and the Arellano-Bond (1991) Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator. The findings show that high temperature is a significant contributor to worsening economic performance in the SSA region. However, after accounting for the absorptive mechanisms, the relationship is no longer that strong. Specifically, after accounting for initial economic performance, social and political stability in the 2-stage GMM estimation, the estimate for temperature drops by 59%. This result confirms the hypothesis that the negative impact of climate change in the region is not absolute, and that building an overall stable socioeconomic environment in the region could assist in buffering the impact of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the economic impacts of climate change over the Brazilian regions until the end of the century. We estimate the direct and indirect impact of the projected changes in climate on the yield of the country's main crops. The results point to a broad spatial heterogeneity of impacts across the country. Using the extreme scenarios created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (RCP 2.6 and 8.5), our predictions indicate that the average annual losses due to climate change range from 0.4% to 1.8% of Brazilian gross domestic product until the end of the century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Philippines' rice production consists of 20% of the gross value added of Philippine agriculture. The absence of the variable may bring drastic changes to the overall Philippine GDP; the research paper will determine whether climate change brings much harm to the Philippines' rice production industry. Due to pollution and with more companies that seek natural resources, climate change has become more severe. The data collected ranges from 1988-to 2017, and all the data gathered came from credible sources. The data collected were regressed using the Eviews as the medium, and the results were interpreted by the researchers. The result of the research proves that carbon emissions and rice production have a significant relationship and that one affects the other greatly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The acceleration in environmental degradation in the past few decades due to a spur in the emissions of greenhouse gases, massive deforestation and a loss of biodiversity has become a major concern of environmentalists, policy makers and researchers. Against this backdrop, the current paper empirically explores the impact of foreign direct investment inflows on environmental degradation. To do so, we have drawn a sample of BRICS nations because of its immense contribution to global environmental challenge. We collected the data since 1992 through 2014 and employed the panel cointegration techniques, and FMOLS and DOLS models. Our results confirm the significant role of foreign direct investment and gross domestic product in reducing the CO2 emissions in these nations. Our results do not support the theory of environmental Kuznets curve and the pollution haven hypothesis valid for these nations. Our findings recommend the use of cleaner technology, and promotion of FDI that ensures environmental awareness. Furthermore, appropriate policies on climate change and effective delegation of environmental protocols will be able to reduce the environmental degradation in BRICS nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural is the property of Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

China is now the world's second largest economy, and it is expected to overtake the United States to become the largest by 2020. What are the implications for the global environment and climate change if China surpasses the United States? There are major concerns with China's rapid rise because its economic and industrial structure is increasingly dependent on the consumption of energy, raw materials, and electricity. In 2010, China's GDP was approximately 40 percent of the United States' GDP, yet it was the world's largest polluter and the biggest consumer of energy and electricity. This implies that the energy efficiency of the Chinese economy measured by energy consumption per unit of GDP is about one-third of that of the United States and one-fourth that of the EU and Japan. If the Chinese economy continues to grow as fast as it has in the past, without changing its structure and improving energy efficiency, China's growth will cause severe damage to the global environment. This paper analyzes the evolution of energy efficiency in the Chinese economy and stresses the importance of transforming China's economic structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural disasters and climate change are interrelated macro‐critical issues affecting all Pacific small states to varying degrees. In addition to their devastating human costs, these events damage growth prospects and worsen countries' fiscal positions. This is the first cross‐country International Monetary Fund (IMF) study assessing the impact of natural disasters on growth in the Pacific islands as a group. A panel Vector Autoregressive (VAR) analysis suggests that, for damage and losses equivalent to 1 per cent of GDP, growth drops by 0.7 percentage points in the year of the disaster. The paper also discusses a multi‐pillar framework to enhance resilience to natural disasters at the national, regional, and multilateral levels and the importance of enhancing countries' risk management capacities. It highlights how this approach can provide a more strategic and less ad hoc framework for strengthening both ex ante and ex post resilience and what role the IMF can play. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with the conclusion of the Stern Review that the cost of climate change could be as much as 20% of the global GDP. In this paper, I identify two major sources of variation in the estimates of the aggregate cost of climate change. One is the disagreement among the AOGCM models on the magnitude of climate change, and the other is the divergence among the economic models on how harmful these changes will be to the economy. The main conclusion of this paper is that only under the alarmist approach—which assumes both the most severe climate change and the most extreme estimate of climate change damage to the economy—we can be convinced that the cost of climate change is close to 20% of the global GDP in 2100. In most other cases, the cost will be under 1% of the global GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several letters are presented including one from Castles to Doctor Robert Watson on the projection of gross domestic product (GDP) that will be posted in the World Bank's website, one from Ian Castles to Doctor Indur M. Goklany on the Economics of Climate Change memorandum, and one from Allan MacRae urging the journal of the Association of Professional Engineers, Geologists and Geophysicists ("PEGG") to bring its readers up-to-date with relevant developments.

This paper examined the economic impacts of China's emissions trading system (ETS), implemented in 2013, in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita GDP. The methodology drew on a difference-in-differences (DID) method using dynamic panel data for 30 provincial regions. The estimation results show that implementing an ETS policy has statistically significant negative effects on economic growth. When considering the additional control variables, these effects are still statistically significant. Furthermore, these negative impacts increase over time with respect to both GDP and per capita GDP. The counterfactual tests confirm the robustness of our DID estimation results. The specific influence mechanism of China's ETS policy was finally discussed. Our findings provide a quantitative decision-making support for popularizing ETS policy in China. Based on our DID model, empirical investigations of the ETS policy, especially concerning economic growth in other regions would produce prolific contributions to the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1.5 °C scenarios reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) rely on combinations of controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, while assuming continued growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Thus far, the integrated assessment modelling community and the IPCC have neglected to consider degrowth scenarios, where economic output declines due to stringent climate mitigation. Hence, their potential to avoid reliance on negative emissions and speculative rates of technological change remains unexplored. As a first step to address this gap, this paper compares 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios with IPCC archetype scenarios, using a simplified quantitative representation of the fuel-energy-emissions nexus. Here we find that the degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability compared to technology-driven pathways, such as the reliance on high energy-GDP decoupling, large-scale carbon dioxide removal and large-scale and high-speed renewable energy transformation. However, substantial challenges remain regarding political feasibility. Nevertheless, degrowth pathways should be thoroughly considered. Established climate mitigation modelling relies on controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, but neglects to consider degrowth scenarios. Here the authors show that degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability and thus need to be thoroughly assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth, greenhouse gas emissions and other factors based on the panel data of 22 countries of the EU in the period 1995–2014. The fixed effect panel model was used as a framework for the analysis. The novel contribution of this paper is that the factors of economic growth, energy consumption, energy taxes as well as R&D were tested in one expanded EKC model, including the data of three Baltic States. The regression coefficients referring to GDP, Energy consumption have a positive sign, while R&D and Energy taxes have a negative sign. The empirical analysis combines two steps of evaluation of panel models of different groups of countries. The results imply that the analysed factors (energy consumption, energy taxes as well as R&D) can be applied to adjust the EKC trend in the region and might be useful for the climate change policy adjustment. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Mitigation and adaptation represent two solutions to the issue of global warming. While mitigation aims at reducing $$\hbox {CO}_2$$ emissions and preventing climate change, adaptation encompasses a broad scope of techniques used to reduce the impacts of climate change once they have occurred. Both have direct costs on a country's gross domestic product, but costs also arise from temperature increases due to inaction. This paper introduces a tipping point in a real options model and analyzes optimal investment choices in mitigation and their timing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of natural resources as an input to economic growth and the interactions between economic and ecological systems have resulted in an accumulation of environmental externalities. This accumulation can negatively affect future levels of welfare and economic growth. In this paper, such dynamics are assessed and quantified by introducing explicit environmental externality variables in a production function. This is performed in an endogenous growth model where cumulative environmental externalities interact with economic growth. Using efficiency analysis, a dynamic econometric model is estimated showing the significance of a negative influence of past levels of use of natural resources on GDP over a broad range of stochastic frontier analysis estimations. The results are applied to propose an alternative specification to the production function of a modelling tool used by the European Commission for the assessment of climate policies in the European Union. The findings show that observed GDP is overestimated when environmental externalities are not considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT A small (but increasing) number of economists has recently started to recognize that the costs of climate change mitigation measured as reduced growth in GDP need not reduce welfare in view of the weak correlation between the two in richer economies, provided that mitigation and employment policies are properly combined. In this paper we sketch neglected links between these - now major - research areas and discuss how subjective well-being and employment could be raised in the medium term by cost-effective mitigation and green fiscal policy, in addition to the long-run benefits of greenhouse gas reductions. A 'green new deal' placing more emphasis on climate change mitigation and happiness (rather than GDP as the key proxy for welfare) could be the appropriate strategy in the current economic climate of austerity and worsening recession, while also initiating the large-scale mitigation investment for job creation that is so urgently needed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores implications of climate change for fiscal policy by assessing the impact of large scale extreme weather events on changes in public budgets. We apply alternative measures for large scale extreme weather events and conclude that the budgetary impact of such events ranges between 0.23% and 1.4% of GDP depending on the country group. Developing countries face a much larger effect on changes in budget balances following an extreme weather event than advanced economies. Based on these findings, our policy conclusions point to the enhanced need to reach and maintain sound fiscal positions given that climate change is expected to cause an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What is a ‘sustainable nation’ and how can we identify and rank ‘sustainable nations?’ Are nations producing and consuming in a sustainable way? Although several aggregate indexes have been proposed to answer such questions, comprehensive and internationally comparable data are not available for most of these. This paper quantitatively compares three aggregate indexes of sustainability: the World Bank’s ‘Genuine Savings’ measure, the ‘Ecological Footprint,’ and the ‘Environmental Sustainability Index.’ These three indexes are available for a large number of countries and also seem to be the most influential among the aggregate indexes. This paper first discusses the main limitations and weaknesses of each of these indexes. Subsequently, it shows that rankings of sustainable nations and aggregate assessments of unsustainable world population and world GDP shares vary considerably among these indexes. This disagreement leads to suggestions for analysis and policy. One important insight is that climate change, arguable the most serious threat currently faced by humanity, is not or arbitrarily captured by the indexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boulding's 1966 paper on the economics of spaceship Earth established the framework for ecological economics and an understanding of economic growth. In ecological economics, economies are conceptualized as open subsystems of the closed biosphere and are subject to biophysical laws and constraints. Economic growth measured as an increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) has generally been associated with increases in the use of energy and materials and the generation of wastes. Scale, composition, and technology are the proximate determinants of environmental impacts. They are often reduced to two: scale (GDP) and intensity (impact per unit GDP). New work described in this paper defines “green” growth as intensity that declines faster than scale increases. Similarly, “brown” growth occurs when intensity declines more slowly than increases in scale, and “black” growth happens when both scale and intensity increase. These concepts are then related to the environmental Kuznets curve, which can be understood as a transition from brown to green growth. Ecological economics provides a macroperspective on economic growth. It offers broad policy principles, and it challenges the primacy of economic growth as a policy objective, but many important questions remain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hotter countries are poorer on average. This paper attempts to separate the historical and contemporaneous components of this income–temperature relationship. Following ideas by Acemoglu et al. (Am Econ Rev 91(5):1369–1401, 2001), we use colonial mortality data to account for the historical role of temperature since colonial mortality was highly correlated with countries’ average temperatures. The remaining income–temperature gradient, after colonial mortality is accounted for, is most likely contemporaneous. This contemporaneous effect can be used to estimate the consequences of global warming. We predict that a 1°C temperature increase across all countries will cause a decrease of 3.8% in world GDP. This prediction is robust across functional forms and an alternative method for separating historical effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

De-carbonization to restrict future global warming to 1.5 °C is technically feasible but may impose a "limit" or "planetary boundary" to economic growth, depending on whether or not human society can decouple growth from emissions. In this paper, we assess the viability of decoupling. First, we develop a prognosis of climate-constrained global growth for 2014–2050 using the transparent Kaya identity. Second, we use the Carbon-Kuznets-Curve framework to assess the effect of economic growth on emissions using measures of territorial and consumption-based emissions. We run fixed-effects regressions using OECD data for 58 countries during 2007–2015 and source alternative emissions data starting in 1992 from two other databases. While there is weak evidence suggesting a decoupling of emissions and growth at high-income levels, the main estimation sample indicates that emissions are monotonically increasing with per-capita GDP. We draw out the implications for climate policy and binding emission reduction obligations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A reduction in the CO2 emission intensity (ton per gross domestic product) from a base year to a target year with different rates of reduction in each individual year can yield different cumulative CO2 emissions over time, which could have different effects on the climate. In this paper, an indicator is proposed to measure the extent to which the cumulative CO2 emissions are generated by a specific reduction trajectory of CO2 emission intensity, especially for emerging economies with a relatively higher economic growth rate. The proposed indicator is important for less-developed countries and regions in which economic growth is heavily reliant on energy and in which significant potential exists for improvement of energy efficiency. The indicator is applied to evaluate the CO2 emission reduction performance in China's 12th Five-Year Plan period, and the result is not encouraging, especially when the likely gap between the energy conservation goals and temperature goals is further examined. Mitigation goals should be set by considering not only the performance in the final year, but also the reduction in cumulative emissions over the evaluation period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]