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The reduction in oil prices might make crude oil a cheaper alternative to renewable energy (RE). Given this, the present paper examines the effect of fluctuation of oil prices on the use of RE in the United States (US) during the period 1970 to 2018. We constructed two nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models to examine the effect of the positive and negative oil price shocks on the use of RE in the US. The RE consumption is taken as the dependent variable and the gross domestic product (GDP), Brent crude prices, population density, trade openness, and price index as independent variables. The result revealed that the rise in crude oil price, GDP, and population density will increase RE use in the short run and in the long run as well. Moreover, the study finds that any decrease in oil prices will decrease RE use in the short run and its effect will eventually diminish in the long run. On the policy front, it is suggested that US should raise its energy security by reducing its dependency on imported crude oil and increase the role of RE through the imposition of taxes on oil and increase the base of production and consumption through a series of measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the influence of selected indicators of the banking sector (M3 monetary aggregates and bank loans provided to the non-financial private sector) on economic growth (GDP) in the Eurozone, the USA and Japan. Cointegration of these selected indicators of the banking sector has been demonstrated in relation to the development of GDP using the Engle - Granger cointegration test. These tests were applied to selected statistical data from the years 2000 to 2015. The first was to determine the optimum delay using Akaike criteria for all-time series analysed. Then the presence of a unit root was analysed using the Dickey - Fuller test. Based on the test results, time series were excluded which appear to be stationary. If the conditions were met, testing then continued with the Engle - Granger test to detect cointegration relations, which would determine a relationship between selected variables. Based on these tests, it was found that at a significance level of 0.05, no cointegration relationship exists between any of the time series in the countries surveyed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent issue of this journal, Beil et al. (2005, hereafter, BFJ) examined the relationship between telecommunications investment and economic growth in the United States over the period 1947-1996. Based on results from Granger-Sims test, BFJ conclude that '... investment by telecommunications firms is caused by, but does not cause, economic activity, and the findings are robust across lag lengths'. However, using another version of the Granger causality test due to Toda & Yamamoto (1995) and the same data set transformed into natural logarithms, the evidence in this paper indicates a feedback where there was a bi-directional causality between telecommunications investment and economic growth. This seems to suggest that policies aimed at stimulating the US economy by accelerating investment in the telecommunications sector may be successful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance of a country's economic development not only increases the gross national product, but is also bound to change with the development of the industrial structure. Using the industrial structure in the United States as a frame of reference in this paper, we compared China's industrial structure system to US's through specific gravity value, the proportion of employment, industrial deviation comparing labor productivity and other indicators. According to the comparison of two in the industry structure and development, it could be summed up that China's first industry proportion continued to decline, but the proportion and structure of the deviation is still high; proportion of secondary industry output value rise slowly, and manufacturing is at the bottom end of the value chain; third industry proportion is too small, and the internal structure of development is imperfect. The traditional service such as catering, wholesale and retail, is still the main issue. Then the paper proposes suggestions to continue to consolidate the status of agriculture as the foundation to improve the educational level of the rural population, restructure secondary industrial to accelerate the development of labor-intensive industries, increase investment in science and technology research; then persist in promoting the production of services, improving the internal structure of the tertiary industry. This article attempts to provide the basis and reference for the Chinese government's industrial restructuring policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United States of America is in a difficult economic situation. It was forced to address several problems during the crisis, but one of these still requires an answer: how should it grow in order to ensure that employment reaches pre-crisis levels? This phenomenon is not specific to the US and not just characteristic of the current crisis. Although this country is the land of opportunities, it has yet to resolve the problem of jobless growth. In this paper, I will investigate the factors that have led to the emergence and persistence of this phenomenon. After presenting the facts and trends related to jobless growth, I will analyse the causes which triggered the problem. I divided the factors influencing jobless growth into three groups. In most cases, these factors clearly support economic growth, but the number of employed people should also be increased in order to boost the profit of companies (which in this case results in economic growth). By providing a synthesis of the literature and statistical data, it has become clear that the problem is deepening and is very difficult to resolve. In this paper, I will address only one of the problems, namely GDP growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper deals with the problem of statistical forecasts in terms of polynomial regression. Thus, it compares actual results with predicted variables using data sets sequentially go through all the set initially. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper explores the relationship between equity returns and inflation using long-term historical data for four of the largest economies in the world: the US, Japan, the UK and Germany. Unlike most previous studies, the paper explores both the long-term and the short-term dimension of the correlation between equity returns and growth in consumer prices. In general, mixed support was found for the hypothesis of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship, while the short-term analysis showed evidence of an asymmetric behaviour during different inflationary regimes, which could not simply be explained in terms of different economic growth environments. For a long-term investor such as a pension fund, the key implication of these results is that short-term dynamics cannot be completely ignored in the belief that the stock market will turn out to be a perfect inflation hedge in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 health and economic crisis has affected all areas of social life globally, including the economy. The world economy has declined due to purchasing power for individuals who have been forced to stay at home and cannot perform work. These restrictions to prevent the spread of SARS-Cov-2 have led to an increase in electronic commerce and mobile commerce as tools for procuring goods and services. In this paper, we conducted a longitudinal analysis of mobile commerce as an essential electronic commerce component, establishing the main drivers of mobile commerce and the intensity of their influences. The research focuses on mobile commerce in the United States (U.S.). It covers the period 2010-2020, the last year of this period capturing the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on electronic commerce (e-commerce) and mobile commerce (m-commerce). In the macroeconomic analysis of competitiveness, we established the main drivers of m-commerce, using artificial neural networks and the mediation effects found between the variables that describe m-commerce, e-commerce, and total sales, using structural equation modeling. The research results indicate an increase in the share of e-commerce in total sales and a predominance of the m-commerce share in e-commerce on the background of traffic restrictions and social distance rules imposed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Stakeholders in the m-commerce area should consider the following enhancing drivers: increasing internet speed, expanding 5G and Wi-Fi networks, and increasing accessibility and trust in mobile devices and applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the extent to which the GDP response to a monetary shock depends on the variation of private debt. This is the marginal contribution of private debt, an effect discussed in the financial accelerator literature. We study the USA, the UK, and Germany in the period 1980 (q1) to 2015 (q4), and compare household debt with corporate debt. Our approach is based on the comparison of one baseline structural VAR with an alternative counterfactual VAR for each country. Our findings indicate that household debt has a significant effect on real output, while corporate debt does not seem to exert a systematic influence. (JEL codes: O11, O16, O51, O52, and E44). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural is the property of Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the construction industry in four practices. The study uses construction statistical data and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for the analyses. The study covers the construction industry and practices in the context of economic outlook, procurement trends, licensing, construction and housing data, etc. The analyses show the comparison of the practices in detail. It also presents the effects of macro and micro economic factors in overall construction industry performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the effects of a rise in defense spending on key macroeconomic variables since September 11, 2001. For examining the effects of the rise in defense spending, empirical models were developed for GDP, employment, trade deficit, and budget deficit. In addition to estimation results, simulations were made to assess the effect of defense spending employing the empirical models. Findings reveal that the rise in defense spending had a favorable impact on GDP and employment but led to larger trade and budget deficits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the incremental predictive power of aggregate measures of financial misreporting for recession and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. We draw on prior research suggesting that misreporting has real economic effects because it represents misinformation on which firms base their investment, hiring, and production decisions. We find that aggregate M-Score incrementally predicts recessions at forecast horizons of five to eight quarters ahead. We also find that aggregate M-Score is significantly associated with lower future growth in real GDP, real investment, consumption, and industrial production. Additionally, our result that aggregate M-Score predicts lower real investment one to four quarters ahead partially accounts for why misreporting predicts recessions five to eight quarters ahead. Our findings are weaker when we use aggregate F-Score as a proxy for misreporting. Overall, this study provides novel evidence that aggregate misreporting measures can aid forecasters and regulators in predicting recessions and real GDP growth. JEL Classifications: M41. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We carry out a pseudo out-of-sample density forecasting study for US GDP with an autoregressive benchmark and alternatives to the benchmark that include both oil prices and stochastic volatility. The alternatives to the benchmark produce superior density forecasts. This comparative density performance appears to be driven more by stochastic volatility than by oil prices, and it primarily occurs outside of the great recession. We use our density forecasts to compute a recession risk indicator around the great recession. The alternative model with the real price of oil generates the earliest strong signal of a recession; but it surprisingly indicates reduced recession immediately after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. Use of the "net oil-price increase" nonlinear transformation of oil prices does lead to warnings of highly elevated risk during the Great Recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Adverse weather is the dominant cause of delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). Since the future weather condition is only predictable with a certain degree of accuracy, managing traffic in the weather-affected airspace is a challenging task. In this paper, we propose a geometric model to generate an optimal combination of ground delay and route choice to hedge against weather risk. The geometric recourse model (GRM) is a strategic Probabilistic Air Traffic Management (PATM) model that generates optimal route choice, incorporating route hedging and en-route recourse to respond to weather change: hedged routes are routes other than the nominal or the detour one, and recourse occurs when the weather restricted airspace becomes flyable and aircraft are re-routed to fly direct to the destination. Among several variations of the GRM, we focus on the hybrid Dual Recourse Model (DRM), which allows ground delay as well as route hedging and recourses, when the weather clearance time follows a uniform distribution. The formulation of the hybrid DRM involves two decision variables – ground delay and route choice – and four parameters: storm location, storm size, maximum storm duration time, and ground-airborne cost ratio. The objective function has two components: expected total ground delay cost and expected total airborne cost. We propose a solution algorithm that guarantees to find the global optimum of the hybrid-DRM. Based on the numerical analysis, we find that ground-holding is effective only when combined with the nominal route. Otherwise, it is optimal to fly on the route determined by the DRM without ground delay. We also find the formula of the threshold ground-airborne cost ratio, which we call the Critical Cost Ratio (CCR), that determines the efficacy of ground delay: the higher the CCR, the more effective the strategies involving ground delay. We conclude that both ground delay and route hedging should be considered together to produce the best ATM decisions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Some economic processes cannot be finished only by using an econometric model with one equation because the economic theory is a systemic concept that contains many variables. After the Great Depression was discovered the concept of macroeconomic modeling that went mainstream in Europe and The United States of America, and in our days the phenomenon accelerated, it derived similar with the structure of the derivates market, which are micro and macroeconomic valid. This research paper underlines the overview of the last 20 years in the development of the first tier macroeconomic indicators that stress the general trend of the economic evolution of Romania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper re-examines the causal relationship between energy use and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States for the period 1960–2005. To that end, we use Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) models, rather than vector autoregressive (VAR) models, which allows for regime shifts. These models are capable of detecting changes in the relationship between variables; in addition, the coefficients of the model are time dependent and they depend on the states of the variables. Therefore, in contrast to VAR and vector error correction models (VECM), which assume a stable relationship, the relationship between the variables could be different in the separate regimes. Results from the estimation of MS models show changes in the pattern of causality relationship between GDP and energy use. That is, we found evidence of bidirectional Granger causality (GC) between the variables in the first regime, while there is no GC between the variables in the second regime. The first regime consists of 1971–1975, 1977–1982, 1989–1995, and from 2001 to the end of the sample. This regime includes the energy crises in 1970s, the recessions in the early 1980s, 1990s, and the recession in 2001. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper analyzes the United Nations Organization''s Kyoto Protocol nations to address two questions. First, what are the environmental production efficiency rankings of these nations? Second, is there a relationship between a nation''s ratification status and its environmental production efficiency ranking? Our findings suggest that the nations that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol are more likely to be environmentally production efficient as compared to the nations that have not ratified the Protocol. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal linkages between tourism and economic growth in the USA and determine how they respond to shocks in the system. Design/methodology/approach: The study uses a variety of time series procedures, including the bounds test, Granger causality test, impulse response functions and generalized variance decomposition to analyze the relationship between monthly tourist arrivals (TA) to the USA, real gross domestic product (GDP) and real effective exchange rates. Findings: Results suggest that GDP Granger causes TA in the USA in the long run, indicating the economy-driven tourism growth hypothesis. Additionally, a shock to GDP generates a positive and significant effect on TA that persists in the long-run, while exchange rate shocks only have a significant effect in the first six months. Research limitations/implications: Different tourism sectors may exert different degrees of influence on the economy. The use of aggregate data on TA in the analysis assumes homogeneity in the industry, thus, only represents the average relationship between tourism and GDP. Practical implications: This study provides insight that shapes the investment, marketing, sustainability decisions of the public and private sectors aim at increasing tourist flows to drive economic development at the national, state and local levels. Originality/value: Though several studies have examined the factors influencing the international tourist demand of the USA, this is the first to investigate the causal relationships between tourism, GDP and exchange rates for the USA. It is also the first in the US tourism literature to account for the nature of interactions between the three variables because of innovations in the system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For many citizens and policymakers, the empirical relationship between economic growth and biodiversity conservation has not been sufficiently established for purposes of identifying the types of economic policies amenable to biodiversity conservation. Some think economic growth conflicts with biodiversity conservation; others think economic growth conduces biodiversity conservation. With panel data from 1997-2011, encompassing US continental states, we developed a series of statistical models to investigate the relationships among species endangerment, human population, and economic growth as indicated by GDP and per capita GDP. Species endangerment is highly correlated with population and GDP, and per capita GDP is a significant regressor of species endangerment. Across US continental states, competitive exclusion of non-human species occurs via human economic growth and population growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The GDP concept has historically been used to measure human wellbeing and progress. This analytical purview is now coming into question. The GDP concept limits analysis to the economic factor and ignores the social and cultural. Analysis should focus on how well the people are doing. An avalanche of studies is now being directed toward dethroning the GDP as the sole indicator of human well-being and progress. This has been manifest in the derivation of many social indexes which indicate that while the global economy as well as the American economy are experiencing GDP growth, basic needs are not being fulfilled. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nighttime lights (NTL) are a popular type of data for evaluating economic performance of regions and economic impacts of various shocks and interventions. Several validation studies use traditional statistics on economic activity like national or regional gross domestic product (GDP) as a benchmark to evaluate the usefulness of NTL data. Many of these studies rely on dated and imprecise Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) data and use aggregated units such as nation-states or the first sub-national level. However, applied researchers who draw support from validation studies to justify their use of NTL data as a proxy for economic activity increasingly focus on smaller and lower level spatial units. This study uses a 2001–19 time-series of GDP for over 3100 U.S. counties as a benchmark to examine the performance of the recently released version 2 VIIRS nighttime lights (V.2 VNL) products as proxies for local economic activity. Contrasts were made between cross-sectional predictions for GDP differences between areas and time-series predictions of GDP changes within areas. Disaggregated GDP data for various industries were used to examine the types of economic activity best proxied by NTL data. Comparisons were also made with the predictive performance of earlier NTL data products and at different levels of spatial aggregation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]