Search

University scientific research ability is an important indicator to express the strength of universities. In this paper, the evaluation of university scientific research ability is investigated based on the output of sci-tech papers. Four university alliances from North America, UK, Australia, and China, are selected as the case study of the university scientific research evaluation. Data coming from Thomson Reuters InCites are collected to support the evaluation. The work has contributed new framework to the issue of university scientific research ability evaluation. At first, we have established a hierarchical structure to show the factors that impact the evaluation of university scientific research ability. Then, a new MCDM method called D-AHP model is used to implement the evaluation and ranking of different university alliances, in which a data-driven approach is proposed to automatically generate the D numbers preference relations. Next, a sensitivity analysis has been given to show the impact of weights of factors and sub-factors on the evaluation result. At last, the results obtained by using different methods are compared and discussed to verify the effectiveness and reasonability of this study, and some suggestions are given to promote China’s scientific research ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

National contributions to science are influenced by a number of factors, including economic capacity, national scientific priorities, science policy, and institutional settings and cultures. Nations do not have equal opportunities to access the global scientific market, and therefore, often seek out international partners with complementary resources and expertise. This study aims at investigating national collaboration strategies, with a focus on research leadership—measured through corresponding authorship—and its relationship with scientific impact. Results show that countries with higher R&D investments are more scientifically independent, and confirm that international collaboration is positively related to citation impact. However, leadership in international collaboration is inversely related with a countries’ share of international collaboration and there is a very little relationship between citation impact and international leadership. For instance, most countries—and particularly those that have fewer resources—have higher scientific impact when they are not leading. This suggests that, despite increasing global participation in science, most international collaborations are asymmetrical, and that the research system remains structured around a few dominate nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies have shown that the performance of a supply chain is heavily influenced by the pattern of relationships among firms. This paper analyzes the structure of relationships (network topology) that leads to the highest agility of a food supply chain when sudden demand changes occur. To do this, a simulation model that represents a supply chain and specific rules to allocate orders is built. The supply chain in the model follows the specific characteristics of trade in the primary sector. The model is fitted to the conditions of a real seafood supply chain in Mexico. Agility is measured through the effect on the order fulfillment of a sudden demand shock and the recovery time of this rate to previous values. The simulation results show that the most suitable structure depends on how product is distributed among suppliers. If product is evenly shared, supply chains with homogeneous topologies are more agile than supply chains with heterogeneous topologies, but the result is the opposite if product is unevenly shared among suppliers. Other previous recommendations, such as having multiple suppliers and horizontal links, are confirmed by the simulations. These findings contribute to the general debate on which is the optimal topology for an agile supply chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing critical global health issues, such as antimicrobial resistance, infectious disease outbreaks, and natural disasters, requires strong coordination and management across sectors. The One Health approach is the integrative effort of multiple sectors working to attain optimal health for people, animals, and the environment, and is increasingly recognized by experts as a means to address complex challenges. However, practical application of the One Health approach has been challenging. The One Health Systems Mapping and Analysis Resource Toolkit (OH-SMART) introduced in this paper was designed using a multistage prototyping process to support systematic improvement in multi-sectoral coordination and collaboration to better address complex health concerns through an operational, stepwise, and practical One Health approach. To date, OH-SMART has been used to strengthen One Health systems in 17 countries and has been deployed to revise emergency response frameworks, improve antimicrobial resistance national action plans and create multi agency infectious disease collaboration protocols. OH-SMART has proven to be user friendly, robust, and capable of fostering multi-sectoral collaboration and complex system-wide problem solving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floating Catchment Area (FCA) methods are a popular tool to investigate accessibility to public facilities, in particular health care services. FCA approaches are attractive because, unlike other accessibility measures, they take into account the potential for congestion of facilities. This is done by 1) considering the population within the catchment area of a facility to calculate a variable that measures level of service, and then 2) aggregating the level of service by population centers subject to catchment area constraints. In this paper we discuss an effect of FCA approaches, an artifact that we term demand and level of service inflation. These artifacts are present in previous implementations of FCA methods. We argue that inflation makes interpretation of estimates of accessibility difficult, which has possible deleterious consequences for decision making. Next, we propose a simple and intuitive approach to proportionally allocate demandand and level of service in FCA calculations. The approach is based on a standardization of the impedance matrix, similar to approaches popular in the spatial statistics and econometrics literature. The result is a more intiuitive measure of accessibility that 1) provides a local version of the provider-to-population ratio; and 2) preserves the level of demand and the level of supply in a system. We illustrate the relevant issues with some examples, and then empirically by means of a case study of accessibility to family physicians in the Hamilton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), in Ontario, Canada. Results indicate that demand and supply inflation/deflation affect the interpretation of accessibility analysis using existing FCA methods, and that the proposed adjustment can lead to more intuitive results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adoption of the shared prosperity goal by the World Bank in 2013 and Sustainable Development Goal 10, on inequality, by the United Nations in 2015 should strengthen the focus of development interventions and cooperation on the income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution. This paper contributes to the incipient literature on within-country allocations of development institutions and assesses the geographic targeting of World Bank projects to the bottom 40 percent. Bivariate correlations between the allocation of project funding approved over 2005–14 and the geographical distribution of the bottom 40 as measured by survey income or consumption data are complemented by regressions with population and other potential factors affecting the within-country allocations as controls. The correlation analysis shows that, of the 58 countries in the sample, 41 exhibit a positive correlation between the shares of the bottom 40 and World Bank funding, and, in almost half of these, the correlation is above 0.5. Slightly more than a quarter of the countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, exhibit a negative correlation. The regression analysis shows that, once one controls for population, the correlation between the bottom 40 and World Bank funding switches sign and becomes significant and negative on average. This is entirely driven by Sub-Saharan Africa and not observed in the other regions. Hence, the significant and positive correlation in the estimations without controlling for population suggests that World Bank project funding is concentrated in administrative areas in which more people live (including the bottom 40) rather than in poorer administrative areas. Furthermore, capital cities receive disproportionally high shares of World Bank funding on average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Freely-available satellite data streams and the ability to process these data on cloud-computing platforms such as Google Earth Engine have made frequent, large-scale landcover mapping at high resolution a real possibility. In this paper we apply these technologies, along with machine learning, to the mapping of peatlands–a landcover class that is critical for preserving biodiversity, helping to address climate change impacts, and providing ecosystem services, e.g., carbon storage–in the Boreal Forest Natural Region of Alberta, Canada. We outline a data-driven, scientific framework that: compiles large amounts of Earth observation data sets (radar, optical, and LiDAR); examines the extracted variables for suitability in peatland modelling; optimizes model parameterization; and finally, predicts peatland occurrence across a large boreal area (397, 958 km2) of Alberta at 10 m spatial resolution (equalling 3.9 billion pixels across Alberta). The resulting peatland occurrence model shows an accuracy of 87% and a kappa statistic of 0.57 when compared to our validation data set. Differentiating peatlands from mineral wetlands achieved an accuracy of 69% and kappa statistic of 0.37. This data-driven approach is applicable at large geopolitical scales (e.g., provincial, national) for wetland and landcover inventories that support long-term, responsible resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Critical illness affects health systems globally, but low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) bear a disproportionate burden. Due to a paucity of data, the capacity to care for critically ill patients in LMICs is largely unknown. Haiti has the lowest health indices in the Western Hemisphere. In this study, we report results of the first known nationwide survey of critical care capacity in Haiti. Design: Nationwide, cross-sectional survey of Haitian hospitals in 2017–2018. Setting: Haiti. Subjects: All Haitian health facilities with at least six hospital beds. Interventions: Electronic- and paper-based survey. Results: Of 51 health facilities identified, 39 (76.5%) from all ten Haitian administrative departments completed the survey, reporting 124 reported ICU beds nationally. Of facilities without an ICU, 20 (83.3%) care for critically ill patients in the emergency department. There is capacity to ventilate 62 patients nationally within ICUs and six patients outside of the ICU. One-third of facilities with ICUs report formal critical care training for their physicians. Only five facilities met criteria for a Level 1 ICU as defined by the World Federation of Societies of Intensive and Critical Care Medicine. Self-identified barriers to providing more effective critical care services include lack of physical space for critically ill patients, lack of equipment, and few formally trained physicians and nurses. Conclusions: Despite a high demand for critical care services in Haiti, current capacity remains insufficient to meet need. A significant amount of critical care in Haiti is provided outside of the ICU, highlighting the important overlap between emergency and critical care medicine in LMICs. Many ICUs in Haiti lack basic components for critical care delivery. Streamlining critical care services through protocol development, education, and training may improve important clinical outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study reports on physicians’ experiences with chronic pain management. For over a decade prescription opioids have been a primary treatment for chronic pain in North America. However, the current opioid epidemic has complicated long-standing practices for chronic pain management which historically involved prescribing pain medication. Caring for patients with chronic pain occurs within a context in which a growing proportion of patients suffer from chronic rather than acute conditions alongside rising social inequities. Methods: Our team undertook an ethnographic approach known as institutional ethnography in the province of Ontario, Canada in order to explore the social organization of chronic pain management from the standpoint of primary care physicians. This paper reports on a subset of this study data, specifically interviews with 19 primary care clinicians and 8 nurses supplemented by 40 hours of observations. The clinicians in our sample were largely primary care physicians and nurses working in urban, rural and Northern settings. Findings: In their reflections on providing care for patients with chronic pain, many providers describe being most challenged by the work involved in helping patients who also struggled with poverty, mental health and addiction. These frustrations were often complicated by concerns that they could lose their license for inappropriate prescribing, thus shifting their work from providing treatment and care to policing their patients for malingering and opioid abuse. Interpretation: Our findings show that care providers find the treatment of patients with chronic pain–especially those patients also experiencing poverty–to be challenging at best, and at worst frustrating and overwhelming. In many instances, their narratives suggested experiences of depersonalization, loss of job satisfaction and emotional exhaustion in relation to providing care for these patients, key dimensions of burnout. In essence, the work that they performed in relation to their patients’ social rather than medical needs seems to contribute to these experiences. Their experiences were further exacerbated by the fact that restricting and reducing opioid dosing in patients with chronic pain has become a major focus of care provision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Are public officials more responsive to requests from affluent or poor constituents? A growing body of evidence suggests that lawmakers are more responsive to the rich when they craft policy. However, some scholars theorize that officials also exhibit a corresponding bias in favor of the poor when they handle casework, essentially giving policy to the rich and services to the poor. In this paper, we test this casework prediction using four experiments in which confederates sent simple requests to state or local officials. In each, our confederates’ reported social classes were randomly assigned and signaled with a brief introductory statement mentioning the sender’s occupation or economic situation. Across our samples, we find precisely-estimated null effects of social class biases: the officials we studied were equally likely to respond regardless of the constituent’s class. These findings raise doubts about whether casework is really a class-biased process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The topics of climate change and renewable energy are often linked in policy discussions and scientific analysis, but public opinion on these topics exhibits both overlap and divergence. Although renewable energy has potentially broader acceptance than anthropogenic climate change, it can also face differently-based opposition. Analyses of US and regional surveys, including time series of repeated surveys in New Hampshire (2010–2018) and northeast Oregon (2011–2018), explore the social bases and trends of public views on both issues. Political divisions are prominent, although somewhat greater regarding climate change due to substantive differences and more partisan opposition. Regarding climate change and to a lesser extent renewable energy, political divisions tends to widen with education. There also are robust age and temporal effects: younger adults more often prioritize renewable energy development, and agree with scientists on the reality of anthropogenic climate change (ACC). Across all age groups and both regional series, support for renewable energy and recognition of ACC have been gradually rising. Contrary to widespread speculation, these trends have not visibly responded to events such as the US hurricanes of 2012, 2017 or 2018. Together with age-cohort replacement and the potential for changes in age-group voting participation, however, the gradual trends suggest that public pressure for action on these issues could grow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Opioid prescriptions for chronic pain and subsequent opioid-related complications have risen dramatically in the US. Recent data suggest that medical marijuana laws have been associated with lower state-level opioid overdose mortality. In a national survey, we examined the prevalence of substitution of marijuana for opioids among US adults taking opioids for pain.Using GfK’s KnowledgePanel, we conducted an Internet-based survey of a nationally representative sample of 16,280 adults in 2017 about individual perceptions and use of marijuana. We developed questions designed to assess the extent and reasons for substitution of marijuana for opioids. We examined opioid substitution among respondents with a history of ever using marijuana who used opioids in the past 12 months. There were 9,003 respondents, corresponding to a 55.3% response rate. The mean age was 48 years. Among the 5% (n = 486) who reported ever using marijuana and using opioids in the past year, 43% used opioids daily, and 23% reported current (past 30 day) marijuana use. Forty-one percent reported a decrease or cessation of opioid use due to marijuana use; 46% reported no change in opioid use; and 8% reported an increase in opioid use. We found that a substantial number of US adults reported that they substituted marijuana for opioids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Threatened species are increasingly dependent on conservation investments for persistence and recovery. Information that resource managers could use to evaluate investments–such as the public benefits arising from alternative conservation designs–is typically scarce because conservation benefits arise outside of conventional markets. Moreover, existing studies that measure the public benefits of conserving threatened species often do not measure the benefits from partial gains in species abundance that fall short of official recovery, or the benefits from achieving gains in species abundance that happen earlier in time. We report on a stated preference choice experiment designed to quantify the non-market benefits for conservation investments aimed at threatened Pacific Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) along the Oregon Coast (OC). Our results show that a program aimed at increasing numbers of returning salmon can generate sizable benefits of up to $518 million/y for an extra 100,000 returning fish, even if the species is not officially declared recovered. Moreover, while conservation investment strategies expected to achieve relatively rapid results are likely to have higher up-front costs, our results show that the public attaches substantial additional value of up to $277 million/y for achieving conservation goals quickly. Our results and approach can be used to price natural capital investments that lead to gains in returning salmon, and as inputs to evaluations of the benefits and costs from alternative conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is estimated that approximately 24% of the US population has at least one tattoo. However, tattoo ink ingredients include heavy metals (high atomic number Z) that are not regulated, which can cause skin reactions. This study investigates the dosimetric effects in surface dose due to high-Z elements in tattoo ink under electron beam irradiation. Four commercially available tattoo ink colors, black, red, yellow, and blue were chosen. The elemental composition of the tattoo ink samples was analyzed using X-ray Fluorescence (XRF). An ultrathin-window parallel plate ion chamber was used to measure the surface dose perturbation (ratio of ionizations with and without tattoo ink) for 6 − 20 MeV electron beams. The elemental concentration in the tattoo ink samples showed high-Z elements, with Z ranging from 11 to 92. The dose perturbation ranged from 1.4% up to 6% for the yellow ink for the 6 MeV electron beam, with similar values across the rest of the electron energies, whereas the black, red, and blue inks presented up to 3% dose perturbation for the same range of energies. Based on this initial study, we conclude that commercially available tattoo inks contain large amounts of high-Z metals that may contribute to dose perturbation. Therefore treatment of superficial lesions with electron beams in a tattooed area should be monitored for signs of early skin reaction during radiation therapy treatments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimation of influenza-like illness (ILI) using search trends activity was intended to supplement traditional surveillance systems, and was a motivation behind the development of Google Flu Trends (GFT). However, several studies have previously reported large errors in GFT estimates of ILI in the US. Following recent release of time-stamped surveillance data, which better reflects real-time operational scenarios, we reanalyzed GFT errors. Using three data sources—GFT: an archive of weekly ILI estimates from Google Flu Trends; ILIf: fully-observed ILI rates from ILINet; and, ILIp: ILI rates available in real-time based on partial reporting—five influenza seasons were analyzed and mean square errors (MSE) of GFT and ILIp as estimates of ILIf were computed. To correct GFT errors, a random forest regression model was built with ILI and GFT rates from the previous three weeks as predictors. An overall reduction in error of 44% was observed and the errors of the corrected GFT are lower than those of ILIp. An 80% reduction in error during 2012/13, when GFT had large errors, shows that extreme failures of GFT could have been avoided. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, one- to four-week ahead forecasts were generated with two separate data streams: ILIp alone, and with both ILIp and corrected GFT. At all forecast targets and seasons, and for all but two regions, inclusion of GFT lowered MSE. Results from two alternative error measures, mean absolute error and mean absolute proportional error, were largely consistent with results from MSE. Taken together these findings provide an error profile of GFT in the US, establish strong evidence for the adoption of search trends based 'nowcasts' in influenza forecast systems, and encourage reevaluation of the utility of this data source in diverse domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Medical Monitoring Project (MMP) is an HIV surveillance system that provides national estimates of HIV-related behaviors and clinical outcomes. When first implemented, MMP excluded persons living with HIV not receiving HIV care. This analysis will describe new case-surveillance-based methods to identify and recruit persons living with HIV who are out of care and at elevated risk for mortality and ongoing HIV transmission. Stratified random samples of all persons living with HIV were selected from the National HIV Surveillance System in five public health jurisdictions from 2012–2014. Sampled persons were located and contacted through seven different data sources and five methods of contact to collect interviews and medical record abstractions. Data were weighted for non-response and case reporting delay. The modified sampling methodology yielded 1159 interviews (adjusted response rate, 44.5%) and matching medical record abstractions for 1087 (93.8%). Of persons with both interview and medical record data, 264 (24.3%) would not have been included using prior MMP methods. Significant predictors were identified for successful contact (e.g., retention in care, adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 5.02; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.98–12.73), interview (e.g. moving out of jurisdiction, aOR 0.24; 95% CI: 0.12–0.46) and case reporting delay (e.g. rural residence, aOR 3.18; 95% CI: 2.09–4.85). Case-surveillance-based sampling resulted in a comparable response rate to existing MMP methods while providing information on an important new population. These methods have since been adopted by the nationally representative MMP surveillance system, offering a model for public health program, research and surveillance endeavors seeking inclusion of all persons living with HIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the advent of continuous antiretroviral therapy, HIV has become a complex chronic, rather than acute, condition. The Chronic Care Model (CCM) provides an integrated approach to the delivery of care for people with chronic conditions that could therefore be applied to the delivery of care for people living with HIV. Our objective was to assess the alignment of HIV care settings with the CCM. We conducted a mixed methods study to explore structures, organization and care processes of Canadian HIV care settings. The quantitative results of phase one are published elsewhere. For phase two, we conducted semi-structured interviews with key informants from 12 HIV care settings across Canada. Irrespective of composition of the care setting or its location, HIV care in Canada is well aligned with several components of the CCM, most prominently in the areas of linkage to community resources and delivery system design with inter-professional team-based care. We propose the need for improvements in the availability of electronic clinical information systems and self-management support services to support better care delivery and health outcomes among people living with HIV in Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: La Maison Bleue is a community-based perinatal health and social centre in Montreal that provides services during pregnancy up to age five to families living in vulnerable contexts. The study aimed to describe: 1) the challenges and protective factors that affect the well-being of migrant families receiving care at La Maison Bleue; and 2) how La Maison Bleue strengthens resilience among these families. Methods: We conducted a focused ethnography. Immigrants, refugees, asylum seekers and undocumented migrants were invited to participate. We collected data from November to December 2017 via semi-structured interviews and participant observation during group activities at La Maison Bleue. Data were thematically analysed. Results: Twenty-four mothers participated (9 interviewed, 17 observed). Challenges to well-being included family separation, isolation, loss of support, the immigration process, an unfamiliar culture and environment, and language barriers. Key protective factors were women’s intrinsic drive to overcome difficulties, their positive outlook and ability to find meaning in their adversity, their faith, culture and traditions, and supportive relationships, both locally and transnationally. La Maison Bleue strengthened resilience by providing a safe space, offering holistic care that responded to both medical and psychosocial needs, and empowering women to achieve their full potential towards better health for themselves and their families. Conclusion: Migrant mothers have many strengths and centres like La Maison Bleue can offer a safe space and be an empowering community resource to assist mothers in overcoming the multiple challenges that they face while resettling and raising their young children in a new country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Downscaled climate projections need to be linked to downscaled projections of population and economic growth to fully develop implications for land, natural resources, and ecosystems for future scenarios. We develop an empirical spatiotemporal approach for jointly projecting population and income at the county scale in the United States that is consistent with neoclassical economic growth theory and overlapping labor markets and that accounts for labor migration and spatial spillovers. Downscaled projections generated for the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways used to support global scenario analysis generally show growth focused around relatively few centers especially in the southeast and western regions, with some areas in the Midwest and northeast experiencing population declines. Results are consistent with economic growth theory and with historical trends in population change and convergence of per capita personal income across US counties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Residential segregation into spatial neighborhoods and boroughs is a well-known spatial dynamic process that characterise complex urban environments. Existing models of segregation, including the pioneering Schelling ones, often do not consider all the factors that can contribute to this process. Segregation as well as aggregation emerges from local interactions among individuals, and is rooted in the complexity of social, economic and environmental interactions. The main objective of this study is to develop and implement a geospatial agent-based model to simulate the decision-making process of location of new household for incoming immigrant populations. Particularly this study aims to simulate and analyse the dynamics of the new immigrant populations arriving in the bilingual cities and boroughs of the island of Montreal. The model was implemented in NetLogo software, using real geospatial datasets. The obtained simulation results indicate realistic spatial patterns of spatial composition of the ethnographic fabric on the island of Montreal. The proposed model has the potential to be used as part of the city planning purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The participation of diverse demographics in higher education has risen over the last half-century; meanwhile, different political and social tiers have been assigning a more active role to institutions in terms of equality and social justice. This change in circumstances has led to the roll out of processes to institutionalise diversity outreach. This study was conducted for the clear purpose of assessing the current institutionalisation status of diversity outreach in 127 key universities from the Academic Ranking of World Universities based on the opinions of diversity outreach managers and the information published on institutional websites, in turn measuring compliance with various indicators. A qualitative analysis of the institutional statements, the goals sought through strategic plans and the definitions of diversity itself was also conducted. The evidence reveals the early stage of the institutionalisation process in universities on account of the low percentage obtained for the proposed indicators. Furthermore, the study failed to exhibit significant differences in this process in terms of the institutional ownership or position held in the ranking; however, more prominent progress was noted in the North-American region when geographical differences were taken into account, likely as a result of the historical background in the advocacy for equal opportunities. Lastly, a change of approach to the conceptualisation of diversity is suggested in favour of equality and social justice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite an overwhelming scientific consensus that climate change poses severe risks to human and natural systems, many young Canadian adults do not view it as a major issue. We analyzed secondary science curricula in each province for their coverage of climate change according to six core topics: physical climate mechanisms (“It’s climate”), observed increase in temperature (“It’s warming”), anthropogenic causes of warming (“It’s us”), scientific consensus (“Experts agree”), negative consequences associated with warming (“It’s bad”), and the possibility for avoiding the worst effects (“We can fix it”). We found that learning objectives tend to focus on knowledge of the first three elements, with little or no emphasis on scientific consensus, climate change impacts, or ways to address the issue. The provinces of Saskatchewan and Ontario provide the most comprehensive standards for climate change education, while Nova Scotia and New Brunswick provide the least. We conducted interviews with individuals responsible for curriculum design in six different provinces to understand how curriculum documents are developed and whether political controversies influence the writing process. Interviewees described a process relying on input from professionals, institutions, and members of the public where curriculum developers made decisions independent of political concerns. In some cases, efforts to provide balance may have led to a focus on social controversy, contrary to overwhelming scientific consensus. Curriculum documents are the basis for teacher instruction and textbook content; aligning these documents with the best possible evidence can improve student learning and engage the next generation of Canadians on the critical issue of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-consensual condom removal (NCCR) is the removal of a condom before or during sexual intercourse without one’s partner's consent. Despite considerable news and media attention devoted to the trend (as stealthing), little empirical research to date has examined people’s views of the practice. The present study aimed to contribute toward generating empirical evidence to guide the discussion surrounding NCCR. We asked participants about whether or not they felt NCCR is wrong, whether there should be consequences for its perpetration, and contextualized responses within legal context. A total of 592 undergraduate students took part in an online survey inquiring about their experiences with and views of NCCR. We used descriptive statistics to determine sample prevalence and outcomes of NCCR and qualitatively analyzed responses to open-ended questions asking about perceptions of NCCR. Of participants who had engaged in penetrative sexual intercourse with a male partner using an external condom, 18.7%, 95% CI [14.4, 22.7] reported that they had NCCR perpetrated against them. The majority of these participants reported that they experienced NCCR negatively and encountered related consequences; several reported contracting an STI, experiencing an unplanned pregnancy, or both. Nearly all participants expressed that NCCR is wrong, citing reasons that included the lack of consent, possibility of unplanned or unwanted outcomes, and a betrayal of trust. In this study, we found that there was agreement that NCCR is wrong, but variability in responses regarding the circumstances under which there should be consequences for the action. These perceptions reflect the current uncertainty in law. We recommend researchers refer to the phenomenon as NCCR (rather than stealthing) and discuss related issues to encourage future research to adopt consistent and accurate labels and definitions for NCCR. We hope that our findings will guide future research and spur public and legal discussion on NCCR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a useful tool for evaluating causes of death, especially in places with limited or no vital registration systems. The Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) developed a validated questionnaire and a set of automated methods to determine the cause of death from a VA. However, the application of these methods needs to be tested in a community environment. Objective: To estimate cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) using VAs and compare them against those obtained in the vital statistics of the state of Hidalgo, Mexico. Methods: A random sample of deaths occurred in 2009 was selected from vital statistics in the state of Hidalgo. The full PHMRC validated VA instrument was applied to the relatives of the deceased, and the cause of death was determined using Tariff's automated method. The causes of death were grouped into 34 causes for adults, 21 for children and 6 for newborns. Results were compared with cause of death on death certificates for all deaths. Results: A total of 1,198 VAs were analyzed. The Tariff method was not able to assign a cause of death in only 9% of adults, 2% of children and 7% of neonatal deaths. The CSMFs obtained from the Tariff method were similar in some cases to those of vital statistics (e.g. cirrhosis), but different in others (e.g. sepsis). Conclusion: The application of VAs in a community sample, analyzed with the Tariff method, allowed assigning a cause of death to most of the cases, with results similar to those of vital statistics for most conditions. This tool can be useful to strengthen the quality of vital statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Blooms of the toxic microalga Karenia brevis occur seasonally in Florida, Texas and other portions of the Gulf of Mexico. Brevetoxins produced during Karenia blooms can cause neurotoxic shellfish poisoning in humans, massive fish kills, and the death of marine mammals and birds. Brevetoxin-containing aerosols are an additional problem, having a severe impact on beachgoers, triggering coughing, eye and throat irritation in healthy individuals, and more serious respiratory distress in those with asthma or other breathing disorders. The blooms and associated aerosol impacts are patchy in nature, often affecting one beach but having no impact on an adjacent beach. To provide timely information to visitors about which beaches are low-risk, we developed HABscope; a low cost (~$400) microscope system that can be used in the field by citizen scientists with cell phones to enumerate K. brevis cell concentrations in the water along each beach. The HABscope system operates by capturing short videos of collected water samples and uploading them to a central server for rapid enumeration of K. brevis cells using calibrated recognition software. The HABscope has a detection threshold of about 100,000 cells, which is the point when respiratory risk becomes evident. Higher concentrations are reliably estimated up to 10 million cells L-1. When deployed by volunteer citizen scientists, the HABscope consistently distinguished low, medium, and high concentrations of cells in the water. The volunteers were able to collect data on most days during a severe bloom. This indicates that the HABscope can provide an effective capability to significantly increase the sampling coverage during Karenia brevis blooms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Attention to research and planning are increasingly being devoted to newcomer health, but the needs of newcomers with disabilities remain largely unknown. This information is difficult to determine since population-level data are rarely available on newcomers or on people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD), although in Ontario, Canada these databases are accessible. This study compared the prevalence of IDD among first generation adult newcomers to adult non-newcomers in Ontario, and assessed how having IDD affected the health profile and health service use of newcomers. Methods: This population-based retrospective cohort study of adults aged 19–65 in 2010 used linked health and social services administrative data. Prevalence of IDD among newcomers (n = 1,649,633) and non-newcomers (n = 6,880,196) was compared. Among newcomers, those with IDD (n = 2,830) and without IDD (n = 1,646,803) were compared in terms of health conditions, and community and hospital service use. Results: Prevalence of IDD was lower in newcomers than non-newcomers (171.6 versus 898.3 per 100,000 adults, p<0.0001). Among newcomers, those with IDD were more likely than those without IDD to have comorbid physical health disorders, non-psychotic, psychotic and substance use disorders. Newcomers with IDD were also more likely to have psychiatry visits, and frequent emergency department visits and hospitalizations. Conclusion: First generation adult newcomers have lower rates of IDD than non-newcomers. How much of this difference is attributable to admission policies that exclude people expected to be high health service users versus how much is attributable to our methodological approach is unknown. Finding more medical and psychiatric comorbidity, and more health service use among newcomers with IDD compared to newcomers without IDD is consistent with patterns observed in adults with IDD more generally. To inform polices that support newcomers with IDD future research should investigate reasons for the prevalence finding, barriers and facilitators to timely health care access, and pathways to care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Physician Orders for Life-Sustaining Treatment (POLST) programs have expanded rapidly, but evaluating their impact on hospital care is challenging. Objectives: To demonstrate how careful study design can reveal POLST’s impact at hospital admission and why analyses of state registry data are unlikely to capture POLST’s effects. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting and participants: Adult in-patients with Do Not Intubate and/or Do Not Resuscitate (DNR/I) orders in the electronic medical record at the time of discharge from Johns Hopkins Hospital over 18 months. For patients with unplanned readmissions within 30 days, records were reviewed to determine if a Maryland Medical Order for Life-Sustaining Treatment (MOLST) form was presented and for the time from readmission to a DNR/I order in the EMR. Analyses were stratified by whether patients could communicate or were accompanied by a proxy at readmission. Results: Among 1,507 patients with DNR/I orders at discharge, 124 (8%) had unplanned readmissions, 112 (90%) could communicate or were accompanied by a proxy at readmission, and 12 (10%) could not communicate and were unaccompanied. For patients who were unaccompanied and could not communicate, MOLST significantly decreased the median time from readmission to DNR/I order (1.2 vs 27.1 hours, P = .001), but this association was greatly attenuated among patients who could communicate or were accompanied by a proxy (16.4 vs 25.4 hours P = .10). Conclusion: Among patients who wanted to avoid intubation and/or CPR, MOLST forms were protective when the patient was unaccompanied by a healthcare proxy at admission and could not communicate. Fewer than 10% of patients met these criteria during unplanned readmissions, and state registry data does not allow this sub-population to be identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As emerging and re-emerging infectious arboviruses like dengue, chikungunya, and Zika threaten new populations worldwide, officials scramble to assess local severity and transmissibility, with little to no epidemiological history to draw upon. Indirect estimates of risk from vector habitat suitability maps are prone to great uncertainty, while direct estimates from epidemiological data are only possible after cases accumulate and, given environmental constraints on arbovirus transmission, cannot be widely generalized beyond the focal region. Combining these complementary methods, we use disease importation and transmission data to improve the accuracy and precision of a priori ecological risk estimates. We demonstrate this approach by estimating the spatiotemporal risks of Zika virus transmission throughout Texas, a high-risk region in the southern United States. Our estimates are, on average, 80% lower than published ecological estimates—with only six of 254 Texas counties deemed capable of sustaining a Zika epidemic—and they are consistent with the number of autochthonous cases detected in 2017. Importantly our method provides a framework for model comparison, as our mechanistic understanding of arbovirus transmission continues to improve. Real-time updating of prior risk estimates as importations and outbreaks arise can thereby provide critical, early insight into local transmission risks as emerging arboviruses expand their global reach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work examines Twitter discussion surrounding the 2015 outbreak of Zika, a virus that is most often mild but has been associated with serious birth defects and neurological syndromes. We introduce and analyze a collection of 3.9 million tweets mentioning Zika geolocated to North and South America, where the virus is most prevalent. Using a multilingual topic model, we automatically identify and extract the key topics of discussion across the dataset in English, Spanish, and Portuguese. We examine the variation in Twitter activity across time and location, finding that rises in activity tend to follow to major events, and geographic rates of Zika-related discussion are moderately correlated with Zika incidence (ρ = .398). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The maximum entropy model, a commonly used species distribution model (SDM) normally combines observations of the species occurrence with environmental information to predict the geographic distributions of animal or plant species. However, it only produces point estimates for the probability of species existence. To understand the uncertainty of the point estimates, we analytically derived the variance of the outputs of the maximum entropy model from the variance of the input. We applied the analytic method to obtain the standard deviation of dengue importation probability and Aedes aegypti suitability. Dengue occurrence data and Aedes aegypti mosquito abundance data, combined with demographic and environmental data, were applied to obtain point estimates and the corresponding variance. To address the issue of not having the true distributions for comparison, we compared and contrasted the performance of the analytical expression with the bootstrap method and Poisson point process model which proved of equivalence of maximum entropy model with the assumption of independent point locations. Both Dengue importation probability and Aedes aegypti mosquito suitability examples show that the methods generate comparatively the same results and the analytic method we introduced is dramatically faster than the bootstrap method and directly apply to maximum entropy model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are more likely to be readmitted than patients with other chronic medical conditions, yet knowledge regarding such readmissions is limited. We aimed to determine factors associated with readmission within 30 days of a COPD hospitalization or death with an emphasis on examining aspects of socioeconomic status and specific comorbidities. Methods: A population-based cohort study was conducted using health administrative data from Ontario, Canada. All hospitalizations for COPD between 2004 and 2014 were considered. The primary exposures were socioeconomic status as measured by residential instability (an ecologic variable), and comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease and cancer. Other domains of socioeconomic status were considered as secondary exposures. Logistic regression with generalized estimating equations was used to examine the effect of exposures, adjusting for other patient factors, on 30-day readmission or death. Results: There were 126,013 patients contributing to 252,756 index COPD hospitalizations from 168 Ontario hospitals. Of these hospitalizations, 19.4% resulted in a readmission and 2.8% resulted in death within 30 days. After adjusting for other factors, readmissions or death were modestly more likely among people with the highest residential instability compared to the lowest (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01–1.09). Comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease and cancer, as well as other aspects of low socioeconomic status also increased readmission or death risk. Interpretation: Socioeconomic status, measured in various ways, and many comorbidities predict 30-day readmission or death in patients hospitalized for COPD. Strategies that address these factors may help reduce readmissions and death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Health literacy (HL) skills are essential to enable self-management and shared decision-making in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Limited HL in these patients is associated with poorer outcomes. It is not clear what the burden of limited HL in patients with T2DM across countries and what factors influence it. Methods: A systematic review was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42017056150). We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL and ERIC for articles published up to January 2017. Articles that measured HL levels in adult patients with T2DM; that used validated HL tools; and that were reported in English were included. Two reviewers assessed studies for eligibility and quality, and extracted the data. Prevalence of limited HL is calculated from the number of patients with less than adequate HL over the total number of patients with T2DM in the study. Meta-analysis and meta-regression analysis were conducted using the Open Meta-analyst software. Results: Twenty-nine studies involving 13,457 patients with T2DM from seven countries were included. In total, seven different HL measurement tools were used. The prevalence of limited HL ranged from 7.3% to 82%, lowest in Switzerland and the highest in Taiwan. Meta-regression analysis of all included studies showed the country of study (p<0.001), HL tool used (p = 0.002), and the country’s region (p<0.001) contributed to the variation findings. Thirteen studies in the USA measured functional HL. The pooled prevalence of inadequate functional HL among patients with T2DM in the USA was 28.9% (95% CI: 20.4–37.3), with high heterogeneity (I2 = 97.9%, p <0.001). Studies were done in the community as opposed to a hospital or primary care (p = 0.005) and populations with education level lower than high school education (p = 0.009) reported a higher prevalence of limited HL. Conclusion: The prevalence of limited HL in patients with T2DM varied widely between countries, HL tools used and the country’s region. Pooled prevalence showed nearly one in three patients with T2DM in the USA had limited functional HL. Interactions with healthcare providers and educational attainment were associated with reported of prevalence in the USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although most countries face increasing population levels of obesity and diabetes their effect on coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has not been often studied in small island developing states (SIDs) where obesity rates are among the highest in the world. We estimated the relative contributions of treatments and cardiovascular risk factors to the decline in CHD mortality from 1990 to 2012 in the Caribbean island, Barbados. Methods: We used the IMPACT CHD mortality model to estimate the effect of increased coverage of effective medical/surgical treatments and changes in major CHD risk factors on mortality trends in 2012 compared with 1990. We calculated deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) for each model risk factor and treatment group. We obtained data from WHO Mortality database, population denominators from the Barbados Statistical Service stratified by 10-year age group (ages 25–34 up to 85 plus), population-based risk factor surveys, Global Burden of Disease and Barbados’ national myocardial infarction registry. Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. Results: In 1990 the age-standardized CHD mortality rate was 109.5 per 100,000 falling to 55.3 in 2012. Implementation of effective treatment accounted for 56% DPPs (95% (Uncertainty Interval (UI) 46%, 68%), mostly due to the introduction of treatments immediately after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (14%) and unstable angina (14%). Overall, risk factors contributed 19% DPPs (95% UI 6% to 34%) mostly attributed to decline in cholesterol (18% DPPs, 95% UI 12%, 26%). Adverse trends in diabetes: 14% additional deaths(ADs) 95% UI 8% to 21% ADs) and BMI (2% ADs 95%UI 0 to 5% ADs) limited potential for risk factor gains. Conclusions: Given the significant negative impact of obesity/diabetes on mortality in this analysis, research that explores factors affecting implementation of evidenced-based preventive strategies is needed. The fact that most of the decline in CHD mortality in Barbados was due to treatment provides an example for SIDs about the advantages of universal access to care and treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To systematically review the literature on women’s experiences traveling for abortion and assess how this concept has been explored and operationalized, with a focus on travel distance, cost, delays, and other barriers to receiving services. Background: Increasing limitations on abortion providers and access to care have increased the necessity of travel for abortion services around the world. No systematic examination of women’s experiences traveling for abortion has been conducted; this mixed-methods review provides a summary of the qualitative and quantitative literature on this topic. Methods: A systematic search was conducted using PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Popline, and Google Scholar in July 2016 and updated in March 2017 (PROSPERO registration # CRD42016046007). We included original research studies that described women’s experiences traveling for abortion. Two reviewers independently performed article screening, data extraction and determination of final inclusion for analysis. Critical appraisal was conducted using CASP, STROBE, and MMAT checklists. Results: We included 59 publications: 46 quantitative studies, 12 qualitative studies, and 1 mixed-methods study. Most studies were published in the last five years, relied on data from the US, and discussed travel as a secondary outcome of interest. In quantitative studies, travel was primarily conceptualized and measured as road or straight-line distance to abortion provider, though some studies also incorporated measures of burdens related to travel, such as financial cost, childcare needs, and unwanted disclosure of their abortion status to others. Qualitative studies explored regional disparities in access to abortion care, with a focus on the burdens related to travel, the impact of travel on abortion method choice, and women’s reasons for travel. Studies generally were of high quality, though many studies lacked information on participant recruitment or consideration of potential biases. Conclusions: Standardized measurements of travel, including burdens associated with travel and more nuanced considerations of travel costs, should be implemented in order to facilitate comparison across studies. More research is needed to explore and accurately capture different dimensions of the burden of travel for abortion services on women’s lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The common human-biting tick, Ixodes pacificus, is the primary vector of the Lyme disease spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (ss) in western North America and has been found to harbor other closely-related spirochetes in the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (sl) complex. Between 2008–2015, 11,066 adult and 3,815 nymphal I. pacificus and five adult and 144 nymphal Ixodes spinpalpis, a commonly collected wildlife tick, were collected from 42 California counties. Borrelia burgdorferi sl was detected in 1.2% and 3.8% I. pacificus adults and nymphs, respectively. Results from this study indicate genetic diversity and geographic structure of B. burgdorferi sl in California I. pacificus ticks, by sequence comparison of the16S rRNA gene, with B. burgdorferi ss, the agent of Lyme disease, found only in I. pacificus collected from the north and central coastal and Sierra Nevada foothill regions; B. burgdorferi ss was not detected in ticks tested from southern California. In contrast, Borrelia bissettiae, a member of the B. burgdorferi sl complex, was detected in both I. pacificus and I. spinipalpis, in the coastal region of both northern and southern California, but was absent from ticks in the Sierra Nevada foothills. In a similar pattern to B. bissettiae, Borrelia americana (a member of the B. burgdorferi sl complex) was detected in a single adult I. pacificus from the north coast and two I. spinipalpis nymphs from south-coastal California. This study highlights that the geographic area of Lyme disease acarological risk in California is the north-central and Sierra Nevada foothill regions of the state with little to no risk in the southern regions of the state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Racial/ethnic disparities in rates of influenza vaccinations in the US remain an issue even among those with access, no out-of-pocket costs, and after adjusting for confounders. We used an approach called the Oaxaca-Blinder (OB) decomposition method to ascertain the contribution of covariates individually and in aggregate to the racial disparity in influenza vaccination. Methods: We included members > = 18 years of age as of 05/01/2014 with continuous enrollment through 04/30/2015. Influenza vaccination was defined by diagnosis, procedure, or medication codes, or documentation in the immunization table. Characteristics were reported by race. Logistic regression models estimated the odds of vaccination associated with: (1) race; and (2) covariates stratified by race. The Oaxaca-Blinder (OB) method calculated the contribution of covariates to the difference or disparity in vaccination between Blacks and Whites. Results: We found that among adults, 44% were vaccinated; 55% were Black; and 45% were White. Black members have 42% lower odds of vaccination than White members. The contribution of the differences in the average value of the study covariates between Black and White members (the OB covariate effect) accounted for 29% of the racial disparity. The contributions to the total White-Black disparity in vaccination included: age (16%), neighborhood median income (11%), and registration on the online patient portal (13%). The contribution of the differences in how the covariates impact vaccination (OB coefficient effect) accounted for 71% of the disparity in vaccination between Blacks and Whites. Conclusion: In conclusion, equalizing average covariate values in Blacks and Whites could reduce the racial disparity in influenza vaccination by 29%. For health system vaccine campaigns, improving registration on the patient portal may be a target component of an effective system-level strategy to reduce racial disparities in vaccination. Additional information on patient-centered factors could further improve the value of the OB approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the entire population of Nobel laureates in science from 1901 to 2017, we show that North America’s rise as global power in science started in the 1920s. Following a transition period (1940s to 1960s), its scientific hegemony was consolidated in the 1970s. Yet since the 2000s, North America’s global leadership in science has come under pressure. In that time, its share of laureates across disciplines dropped, although it has retained its attractiveness as a destination for future laureates from Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. In addition, we find that North America has become apparently less effective since 2010 in transferring capacities for conducting ground-breaking research from one generation of scientists to another. Furthermore, both Europe and the Asia-Pacific region have similarly high shares of newcomer organizations with regard to where prize-winning work is conducted, indicating that these two regions are very active in the inter-organizational competition for scientific talent. Despite this competition, however, we find no support for the rise of a new global center of science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Population trends of disease prevalence and incidence over time measure burden of disease and inform healthcare planning. Neuromuscular disorders (NMD) affect muscle and nerve function with varying degrees of severity and disease progression. Objective: Using health administrative databases we described trends in incidence, prevalence, and mortality of adults and children with NMD. We also explored place of death and use of palliative care. Methods: Population-based (Ontario, Canada) cohort study (2003 to 2014) of adults and children with NMD identified using International Classification of Disease and health insurance billing codes within administrative health databases. Results: Adult disease prevalence increased on average per year by 8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 6% to 10%, P <.001), with the largest increase in adults18-39 years. Childhood disease prevalence increased by 10% (95% CI 8% to 11%, P <.0001) per year, with the largest increase in children 0 to 5 years. Prevalence increased across all diagnoses except amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and spinal muscular atrophy for adults and all diagnoses for children. Adult incidence decreased by 3% (95% CI -4% to -2%, P <.0001) but incidence remained stable in children. Death occurred in 34,336 (18.5%) adults; 21,236 (61.8%) of whom received palliative care. Death occurred in 1,009 (5.6%) children; 507 (50.2%) of whom received palliative care. Mortality decreased over time in adults (odds ratio (OR) 0.86, 95% CI 0.86–0.87, P <.0001) and children (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.76–0.82, P <.0001). Use of palliative care over time increased for adults (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.28, P <.0001) and children (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.23, P <.0001). Conclusions: In both adults and children, NMD prevalence is rising and mortality rates are declining. In adults incidence is decreasing while in children it remains stable. This confirms on a population-based level the increased survival of children and adults with NMD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate species delimitation and description are necessary to guide effective conservation of imperiled species, and this synergy is maximized when multiple data sources are used to delimit species. We illustrate this point by examining Drymarchon couperi (Eastern Indigo Snake), a large, federally-protected species in North America that was recently divided into two species based on gene sequence data from three loci and heuristic morphological assessment. Here, we re-evaluate the two-species hypothesis for D. couperi by evaluating both population genetic and gene sequence data. Our analyses of 14 microsatellite markers revealed 6–8 genetic population clusters with significant admixture, particularly across the contact zone between the two hypothesized species. Phylogenetic analyses of gene sequence data with maximum-likelihood methods suggested discordance between mitochondrial and nuclear markers and provided phylogenetic support for one species rather than two. For these reasons, we place Drymarchon kolpobasileus into synonymy with D. couperi. We suggest inconsistent patterns between mitochondrial and nuclear DNA are driven by high dispersal of males relative to females. We advocate for species delimitation exercises that evaluate admixture and gene flow in addition to phylogenetic analyses, particularly when the latter reveal monophyletic lineages. This is particularly important for taxa, such as squamates, that exhibit strong sex-biased dispersal. Problems associated with over-delimitation of species richness can become particularly acute for threatened and endangered species, because of high costs to conservation when taxonomy demands protection of more individual species than are supported by accumulating data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tree cavities provide a critical resource for cavity-nesting animals, and high quality cavities can be difficult for animals to acquire in habitats where competition is high. We investigated the breeding performance of Lewis's Woodpeckers in three habitat types in British Columbia, Canada in 2013 and 2014. We also assessed whether the number of nest competitors and cavity availability influenced the habitat specific breeding performance of this threatened cavity nesting species. We found that daily nest survival rate was lower in burned habitat (0.15 ± 0.08 (0.05–0.37)) than in live pine (0.72 ± 0.10 (0.51–0.87)) or cottonwood (0.69 ± 0.09 (0.51–0.83)) habitats. However, hatching success (the proportion of eggs that hatch) was lower in live pine habitat (0.59 ± 0.09 95% CI) than burned (0.77 ± 0.19 95% CI) or cottonwood (0.80 ± 0.07 95% CI) habitat, and the fledging success of successful nests in live pine and burned habitat (1.86 ± 0.31 and 1.88 ± 0.59 95% CI, respectively) was slightly lower than in cottonwood habitat (2.61 ± 0.45 95% CI). Consequently, Lewis's Woodpeckers in cottonwood habitat produced more fledglings per nesting attempt (2.05 ± 0.49 95% CI) than in live pine (1.53 ± 0.35 95% CI) or burned (0.79 ± 0.49 95% CI) habitat. Habitats differed in the number of nesting competitors and the number of suitable cavities surrounding active Lewis's Woodpecker nests. Our results showed that cavity density best explained breeding performance differences although the mechanisms remain unclear. There was no evidence that the number of heterospecific nest competitors, including the invasive European Starling (Sturnus vulgaris), explained or influenced Lewis's Woodpecker breeding performance. Cavity density influenced the productivity of successful nests but did not explain habitat differences in hatching success or daily nest survival. Further work is required to understand the mechanistic basis for the habitat specific breeding performance of Lewis's Woodpeckers. Habitat differences in breeding performance in British Columbia are not consistent with those in other regions, highlighting the importance of regionally-specific demographic data for managing species at risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2) is a large double-stranded DNA virus that causes genital sores when spread by sexual contact and is a principal cause of viral encephalitis in newborns and infants. Viral glycoproteins enable virion entry into and spread between cells, making glycoproteins a prime target for vaccine development. A truncated glycoprotein D2 (gD2) vaccine candidate, recently tested in the phase 3 Herpevac Trial for Women, did not prevent HSV-2 infection in initially seronegative women. Some women who became infected experienced multiple recurrences during the trial. The HSV US7, US8, and US9 genes encode glycoprotein I (gI), glycoprotein E (gE), and the US9 type II membrane protein, respectively. These proteins participate in viral spread across cell junctions and facilitate anterograde transport of virion components in neurons, prompting us to investigate whether sequence variants in these genes could be associated with frequent recurrence. The nucleotide sequences and dN/dS ratios of the US7-US9 region from viral isolates of individuals who experienced multiple recurrences were compared with those who had had a single episode of disease. No consistent polymorphism(s) distinguished the recurrent isolates. In frequently recurring isolates, the dN/dS ratio of US7 was low while greater variation (higher dN/dS ratio) occurred in US8, suggesting conserved function of the former during reactivation. Phylogenetic reconstruction of the US7-US9 region revealed eight strongly supported clusters within the 55 U.S. HSV-2 strains sampled, which were preserved in a second global phylogeny. Thus, although we have demonstrated evolutionary diversity in the US7-US9 complex, we found no molecular evidence of sequence variation in US7-US9 that distinguishes isolates from subjects with frequently recurrent episodes of disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hantaviruses can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in the Americas and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus disease have led to public concern and have created a global public health burden. Hantavirus spillover from natural hosts into human populations could be considered an ecological process, in which environmental forces, behavioral determinants of exposure, and dynamics at the human–animal interface affect human susceptibility and the epidemiology of the disease. In this review, we summarize the progress made in understanding hantavirus epidemiology and rodent reservoir population biology. We mainly focus on three species of rodent hosts with longitudinal studies of sufficient scale: the striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius, the main reservoir host for Hantaan virus [HTNV], which causes HFRS) in Asia, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus, the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus [SNV], which causes HPS) in North America, and the bank vole (Myodes glareolus, the main reservoir host for Puumala virus [PUUV], which causes HFRS) in Europe. Moreover, we discuss the influence of ecological factors on human hantavirus disease outbreaks and provide an overview of research perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Flavored e-cigarettes are enticing to new users and established cigarette smokers using e-cigarettes to quit smoking due to the wide variety of flavor options. However, specific flavor combinations that are popular among e-cigarette users are understudied. Recently, the Deeming rule extended the US Food and Drug Administration’s authority over all tobacco products, including e-cigarettes. Methods: The Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study Wave 2 data were analyzed to assess the prevalence of self-reported flavor categories that are used individually and in combination with other flavor categories among past 30-day youth and adult e-cigarette users in the US. Results: Most youth and adult participants reported using a flavored e-cigarette. Reporting an individual flavor category was more common than reporting a combination of flavor categories. Fruit flavor was the most common flavor category reported among youth, and ‘menthol/mint’ was most common among adults. Fruit and candy/other sweets were the most common flavor categories reported together among both youth and adult past 30-day e-cigarette users. Conclusions: The use of flavored e-cigarettes is very popular among youth and adults. Most consumers reported using a single flavor category, although some consumers did use a combination of flavor categories. Preference for menthol/mint among adults may represent a carryover from associations with tobacco cigarettes. Typically, sweeter flavors, such as fruit, were among the most popular flavor categories reported, both individually and in combination with other flavors, while more bitter flavors (i.e.: clove/spice) were less common. Implications: This study identified predominant flavor categories among past 30-day youth and adult e-cigarette users. Findings indicate that the wide variety of flavors available and the freedom to “mix-and-match” flavors may maintain use of e-cigarettes among youth and adults, and future research should focus on the composition of the ENDS liquid/vapor to disentangle the contributions of sweeteners and flavorants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The control of Triatoma dimidiata, a major vector of Chagas disease, was believed to eliminate Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in Central America. This vector was known for its ability to repeatedly reinfest human dwellings even after initial insecticide spraying. Current vector control programs assume that community-based surveillance can maintain low levels of infestation over many years, despite a lack of evidence in the literature to corroborate this assumption. This study aims to evaluate long-term reinfestation risk in the Nicaraguan vector control program from 2010 to 2016. Methods: We collected data from a cohort of 395 houses in Pueblo Nuevo, Nicaragua. Primary data were collected through a field survey to assess post-intervention levels of T. dimidiata house infestation in 2016, two years after the large-scale insecticide spraying. We obtained secondary data from the records about past infestation levels and control activities between 2010 and 2015. Multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with post-intervention house infestation. Results: The control program effectively reduced the infestation level from 2010 to 2014. Community-based surveillance was introduced in 2013; however, post-intervention infestation in 2016 had nearly reached pre-intervention levels in rural villages. Post-intervention house infestation was positively associated with poor wall construction, roofing tiles piled in the peri-domestic areas or the presence of dogs. Interestingly, the odds of post-intervention house infestation were one-fifth less when villagers sprayed their own houses regularly. Past infestation levels and the intensity of government-led insecticide spraying did not explain post-intervention house infestation. Conclusions: The vector control program failed to offer sustained reductions in T. dimidiata house infestation. This experience would suggest that community-based surveillance is an insufficient approach to suppressing T. dimidiata house infestation over many years. This study provides evidence to suggest that control policies for T. dimidiata should be reconsidered throughout Central America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Food insecurity is associated with a wide array of negative health outcomes and higher health care costs but there has been no population-based study of the association of food insecurity and mortality in high-income countries. Methods: We use cross-sectional population surveys linked to encoded health administrative data. The sample is 90,368 adults, living in Ontario and respondents in the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). The outcome of interest is all-cause mortality at any time after the interview and within four years of the interview. The primary variable of interest is food insecurity status, with individuals classed as “food secure”, “marginally food insecure”, “moderately food insecure”, or “severely food insecure”. We use logistic regression models to determine the association of mortality with food insecurity status, adjusting for other social determinants of health. Results: Using a full set of covariates, in comparison to food secure individuals, the odds of death at any point after the interview are 1.28 (CI = 1.08, 1.52) for marginally food insecure individuals, 1.49 (CI = 1.29, 1.73) for moderately food insecure individuals, and 2.60 (CI = 2.17, 3.12) for severely food insecure individuals. When mortality within four years of the interview is considered, the odds are, respectively, 1.19 (CI = 0.95, 1.50), 1.65 (CI = 1.37, 1.98), and 2.31 (CI = 1.81, 2.93). Interpretation: These findings demonstrate that food insecurity is associated with higher mortality rates and these higher rates are especially large for the most severe food insecurity category. Efforts to reduce food insecurity should be incorporated into broader public health initiatives to reduce mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species may become invasive after introduction to a new range because phenotypic traits pre-adapt them to spread and become dominant. In addition, adaptation to novel selection pressures in the introduced range may further increase their potential to become invasive. The diploid Leucanthemum vulgare and the tetraploid L. ircutianum are native to Eurasia and have been introduced to North America, but only L. vulgare has become invasive. To investigate whether phenotypic differences between the two species in Eurasia could explain the higher abundance of L. vulgare in North America and whether rapid evolution in the introduced range may have contributed to its invasion success, we grew 20 L. vulgare and 21 L. ircutianum populations from Eurasia and 21 L. vulgare populations from North America under standardized conditions and recorded performance and functional traits. In addition, we recorded morphological traits to investigate whether the two closely related species can be clearly distinguished by morphological means and to what extent morphological traits have changed in L. vulgare post-introduction. We found pronounced phenotypic differences between L. vulgare and L. ircutianum from the native range as well as between L. vulgare from the native and introduced ranges. The two species differed significantly in morphology but only moderately in functional or performance traits that could have explained the higher invasion success of L. vulgare in North America. In contrast, leaf morphology was similar between L. vulgare from the native and introduced range, but plants from North America flowered later, were larger and had more and larger flower heads than those from Eurasia. In summary, we found litte evidence that specific traits of L. vulgare may have pre-adapted this species to become more invasive than L. ircutianum, but our results indicate that rapid evolution in the introduced range likely contributed to the invasion success of L. vulgare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extent to which evolution is deterministic (predictable), or random, is a fundamental question in evolution. This case study attempts to determine the extent to which interspecific divergence can be predicted from intraspecific trends related species. The mountainous Lesser Antilles are occupied by one or two anole species with very substantial intraspecific differences in the quantitative traits between xeric and rainforest habitats. These ecologically determined differences tend to be in parallel in each island species. A related species (Anolis bonairensis) lives on the far more xeric island of Bonaire, and this study tests the extent to which its interspecific divergence in hue and pattern traits can be predicted from the parallel intraspecific variation exhibited in Lesser Antillean anoles. Regression against a multivariate climate variable suggests that the hue and pattern of the Bonaire anole are consistently predicted from the ecologically determined intraspecific variation of its Lesser Antillean relatives. However, this predictability may be less consistent with other character systems, for example, scalation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Here we conduct research to understand the evolutionary history of a shrubby species known as Agarito (Berberis trifoliolata), an endemic species to the Chihuahuan Desert. We identify genetic signatures based on plastid DNA and AFLP markers and perform niche modelling and spatial connectivity analyses as well as niche modelling based on records in packrats to elucidate whether orogenic events such as mountain range uplift in the Miocene or the contraction/expansion dynamics of vegetation in response to climate oscillations in the Pliocene/Pleistocene had an effect on evolutionary processes in Agarito. Our results of current niche modelling and palaeomodelling showed that the area currently occupied by Berberis trifoliolata is substantially larger than it was during the Last Interglacial period and the Last Glacial Maximum. Agarito was probably confined to small areas in the Northeastern and gradually expanded its distribution just after the Last Glacial Maximum when the weather in the Chihuahuan Desert and adjacent regions became progressively warmer and drier. The most contracted range was predicted for the Interglacial period. Populations remained in stable areas during the Last Glacial Maximum and expanded at the beginning of the Holocene. Most genetic variation occured in populations from the Sierra Madre Oriental. Two groups of haplotypes were identified: the Mexican Plateau populations and certain Northeastern populations. Haplogroups were spatially connected during the Last Glacial Maximum and separated during interglacial periods. The most important prediction of packrat middens palaeomodelling lies in the Mexican Plateau, a finding congruent with current and past niche modelling predictions for agarito and genetic results. Our results corroborate that these climate changes in the Pliocene/Pleistocene affected the evolutionary history of agarito. The journey of agarito in the Chihuahuan Desert has been dynamic, expanding and contracting its distribution range and currently occupying the largest area in its history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The balsam woolly adelgid (Adelges piceae (Ratzeburg) (Homoptera: Adelgidae)) (BWA) is a nonnative, invasive insect that threatens Abies species throughout North America. It is well established in the Pacific Northwest, but continues to move eastward through Idaho and into Montana and potentially threatens subalpine fir to the south in the central and southern Rocky Mountains. We developed a climatic risk model and map that predicts BWA impacts to subalpine fir using a two-step process. Using 30-year monthly climate normals from sites with quantitatively derived BWA damage severity index values, we built a regression model that significantly explained insect damage. The sites were grouped into two distinct damage categories (high damage and mortality versus little or no mortality and low damage) and the model estimates for each group were used to designate distinct value ranges for four climatic risk categories: minimal, low, moderate, and high. We then calculated model estimates for each cell of a 4-kilometer resolution climate raster and mapped the risk categories over the entire range of subalpine fir in the western United States. The spatial variation of risk classes indicates a gradient of climatic susceptibility generally decreasing from the Olympic Peninsula in Washington and the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington moving eastward, with the exception of some high risk areas in northern Idaho and western Montana. There is also a pattern of decreasing climatic susceptibility from north to south in the Rocky Mountains. Our study provides an initial step for modeling the relationship between climate and BWA damage severity across the range of subalpine fir. We showed that September minimum temperature and a metric calculated as the maximum May temperature divided by total May precipitation were the best climatic predictors of BWA severity. Although winter cold temperatures and summer heat have been shown to influence BWA impacts in other locations, these variables were not as predictive as spring and fall conditions in the Pacific Northwest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insect outbreaks often occur synchronously across large spatial scales, but the long-term temporal stability of the phenomenon and the mechanisms behind it are not well understood. In this study, I use a widespread lepidopteran defoliator native to western North America—the western spruce budworm—as a case study to explore patterns of and potential causes for synchronous population fluctuations. Analyses of synchrony are typically severely limited by the short historical records available for many species. To overcome this limitation, I compiled multi-century dendrochronological reconstructions of western spruce budworm outbreaks from across much of the species’ range. This allowed me to analyze synchrony at a sub-continental spatial scale over the last three centuries. I found statistically significant synchrony among regional outbreak records up to 2,000 km apart and identified numerous outbreak periods that occurred synchronously across much of the species’ range. I quantified spatial and temporal associations between climate and synchronous outbreak periods using paleoclimate reconstructions. The spatial patterns of outbreak histories and climate records were remarkably similar, with higher similarity in outbreak histories apparent between regions with more similar climate conditions. Synchronous outbreaks typically occurred during periods of average or above average moisture availability preceded by periods of low moisture availability. My results suggest that climatic variability has played a key role in synchronizing western spruce budworm population fluctuations in disjunct forests across western North America for at least the last three centuries. Widespread synchrony appears to be a natural part of this species’ population dynamics, though synchronous outbreaks have occurred more frequently during the 20th century than during prior centuries. This study uses a novel combination of statistical methods and dendrochronological data to provide analyses of this species’ population dynamics with an unprecedented combination of spatial extent and temporal depth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]