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Summary In recent years, a number of methods have been proposed to estimate the times at which a neuron spikes on the basis of calcium imaging data. However, quantifying the uncertainty associated with these estimated spikes remains an open problem. We consider a simple and well-studied model for calcium imaging data, which states that calcium decays exponentially in the absence of a spike, and instantaneously increases when a spike occurs. We wish to test the null hypothesis that the neuron did not spike—i.e., that there was no increase in calcium—at a particular timepoint at which a spike was estimated. In this setting, classical hypothesis tests lead to inflated Type I error, because the spike was estimated on the same data used for testing. To overcome this problem, we propose a selective inference approach. We describe an efficient algorithm to compute finite-sample $p$-values that control selective Type I error, and confidence intervals with correct selective coverage, for spikes estimated using a recent proposal from the literature. We apply our proposal in simulation and on calcium imaging data from the $\texttt{spikefinder}$ challenge.

Restricting in-person interactions is an important technique for limiting the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Although early research found strong associations between cell phone mobility and infection spread during the initial outbreaks in the United States, it is unclear whether this relationship persists across locations and time. We propose an interpretable statistical model to identify spatiotemporal variation in the association between mobility and infection rates. Using one year of US county-level data, we found that sharp drops in mobility often coincided with declining infection rates in the most populous counties in spring 2020. However, the association varied considerably in other locations and across time. Our findings are sensitive to model flexibility, as more restrictive models average over local effects and mask much of the spatiotemporal variation. We conclude that mobility does not appear to be a reliable leading indicator of infection rates, which may have important policy implications.

The graph fused lasso—which includes as a special case the one-dimensional fused lasso—is widely used to reconstruct signals that are piecewise constant on a graph, meaning that nodes connected by an edge tend to have identical values. We consider testing for a difference in the means of two connected components estimated using the graph fused lasso. A naive procedure such as a z-test for a difference in means will not control the selective Type I error, since the hypothesis that we are testing is itself a function of the data. In this work, we propose a new test for this task that controls the selective Type I error, and conditions on less information than existing approaches, leading to substantially higher power. We illustrate our approach in simulation and on datasets of drug overdose death rates and teenage birth rates in the contiguous United States. Our approach yields more discoveries on both datasets. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

To understand how the brain processes sensory information to guide behavior, we must know how stimulus representations are transformed throughout the visual cortex. Here we report an open, large-scale physiological survey of activity in the awake mouse visual cortex: the Allen Brain Observatory Visual Coding dataset. This publicly available dataset includes the cortical activity of nearly 60,000 neurons from six visual areas, four layers, and 12 transgenic mouse lines in a total of 243 adult mice, in response to a systematic set of visual stimuli. We classify neurons on the basis of joint reliabilities to multiple stimuli and validate this functional classification with models of visual responses. While most classes are characterized by responses to specific subsets of the stimuli, the largest class is not reliably responsive to any of the stimuli and becomes progressively larger in higher visual areas. These classes reveal a functional organization wherein putative dorsal areas show specialization for visual motion signals.

Calcium imaging has led to discoveries about neural correlates of behavior in subcortical neurons, including dopamine (DA) neurons. However, spike inference methods have not been tested in most populations of subcortical neurons. To address this gap, we simultaneously performed calcium imaging and electrophysiology in DA neurons in brain slices, and applied a recently developed spike inference algorithm to the GCaMP fluorescence. This revealed that individual spikes can be inferred accurately in this population. Next, we inferred spikes in vivo from calcium imaging from these neurons during Pavlovian conditioning, as well as during navigation in virtual reality. In both cases, we quantitatively recapitulated previous in vivo electrophysiological observations. Our work provides a validated approach to infer spikes from calcium imaging in DA neurons, and implies that aspects of both tonic and phasic spike patterns can be recovered.

Somatic mutations are a primary contributor to malignancy in human cells. Accurate detection of mutations is needed to define the clonal composition of tumours whereby clones may have distinct phenotypic properties. Although analysis of mutations over multiple tumour samples from the same patient has the potential to enhance identification of clones, few analytic methods exploit the correlation structure across samples. We posited that incorporating clonal information into joint analysis over multiple samples would improve mutation detection, particularly those with low prevalence. In this paper, we develop a new procedure called MuClone, for detection of mutations across multiple tumour samples of a patient from whole genome or exome sequencing data. In addition to mutation detection, MuClone classifies mutations into biologically meaningful groups and allows us to study clonal dynamics. We show that, on lung and ovarian cancer datasets, MuClone improves somatic mutation detection sensitivity over competing approaches without compromising specificity., Fatemeh Dorri et al. present MuClone, a method for simultaneous detection and classification of mutations across multiple tumor samples derived from one patient. They show that clonal information improves sensitivity in detecting somatic mutations.

Calcium imaging data promises to transform the field of neuroscience by making it possible to record from large populations of neurons simultaneously. However, determining the exact moment in time at which a neuron spikes, from a calcium imaging data set, amounts to a non-trivial deconvolution problem which is of critical importance for downstream analyses. While a number of formulations have been proposed for this task in the recent literature, in this paper we focus on a formulation recently proposed in Jewell and Witten (2017) which has shown initial promising results. However, this proposal is slow to run on fluorescence traces of hundreds of thousands of timesteps. Here we develop a much faster online algorithm for solving the optimization problem of Jewell and Witten (2017) that can be used to deconvolve a fluorescence trace of 100,000 timesteps in less than a second. Furthermore, this algorithm overcomes a technical challenge of Jewell and Witten (2017) by avoiding the occurrence of so-called "negative" spikes. We demonstrate that this algorithm has superior performance relative to existing methods for spike deconvolution on calcium imaging datasets that were recently released as part of the spikefinder challenge (http://spikefinder.codeneuro.org/). Our C++ implementation, along with R and python wrappers, is publicly available on Github at https://github.com/jewellsean/FastLZeroSpikeInference., 30 pages, 9 figures

While many methods are available to detect structural changes in a time series, few procedures are available to quantify the uncertainty of these estimates post-detection. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing a new framework to test the null hypothesis that there is no change in mean around an estimated changepoint. We further show that it is possible to efficiently carry out this framework in the case of changepoints estimated by binary segmentation and its variants, $\ell_{0}$ segmentation, or the fused lasso. Our setup allows us to condition on much less information than existing approaches, which yields higher powered tests. We apply our proposals in a simulation study and on a dataset of chromosomal guanine-cytosine content. These approaches are freely available in the R package ChangepointInference at https://jewellsean.github.io/changepoint-inference/., Comment: Main text: 28 pages, 5 figures. Supplementary Materials: 15 pages, 4 figures

In recent years, new technologies in neuroscience have made it possible to measure the activities of large numbers of neurons simultaneously in behaving animals. For each neuron, a fluorescence trace is measured; this can be seen as a first-order approximation of the neuron's activity over time. Determining the exact time at which a neuron spikes on the basis of its fluorescence trace is an important open problem in the field of computational neuroscience. Recently, a convex optimization problem involving an $\ell_1$ penalty was proposed for this task. In this paper, we slightly modify that recent proposal by replacing the $\ell_1$ penalty with an $\ell_0$ penalty. In stark contrast to the conventional wisdom that $\ell_0$ optimization problems are computationally intractable, we show that the resulting optimization problem can be efficiently solved for the global optimum using an extremely simple and efficient dynamic programming algorithm. Our R-language implementation of the proposed algorithm runs in a few minutes on fluorescence traces of $100,000$ timesteps. Furthermore, our proposal leads to substantial improvements over the previous $\ell_1$ proposal, in simulations as well as on two calcium imaging data sets. R-language software for our proposal is available on CRAN in the package LZeroSpikeInference. Instructions for running this software in python can be found at https://github.com/jewellsean/LZeroSpikeInference., Comment: 28 pages, 6 figures

SummaryTo understand how the brain processes sensory information to guide behavior, we must know how stimulus representations are transformed throughout the visual cortex. Here we report an open, large-scale physiological survey of neural activity in the awake mouse visual cortex: the Allen Brain Observatory Visual Coding dataset. This publicly available dataset includes cortical activity from nearly 60,000 neurons collected from 6 visual areas, 4 layers, and 12 transgenic mouse lines from 221 adult mice, in response to a systematic set of visual stimuli. Using this dataset, we reveal functional differences across these dimensions and show that visual cortical responses are sparse but correlated. Surprisingly, responses to different stimuli are largely independent, e.g. whether a neuron responds to natural scenes provides no information about whether it responds to natural movies or to gratings. We show that these phenomena cannot be explained by standard local filter-based models, but are consistent with multi-layer hierarchical computation, as found in deeper layers of standard convolutional neural networks.

Accurate detection and classification of somatic single nucleotide variants (SNVs) is important in defining the clonal composition of human cancers. Existing tools are prone to miss low prevalence mutations and methods for classification of mutations into clonal groups across the whole genome are underdeveloped. Increasing interest in deciphering clonal population dynamics over multiple samples in time or anatomic space from the same patient is resulting in whole genome sequence (WGS) data from phylogenetically related samples. With the access to this data, we posited that injecting clonal structure information into the inference of mutations from multiple samples would improve mutation detection.We developed MuClone: a novel statistical framework for simultaneous detection and classification of mutations across multiple tumour samples of a patient from whole genome or exome sequencing data. The key advance lies in incorporating prior knowledge about the cellular prevalences of clones to improve the performance of detecting mutations, particularly low prevalence mutations. We evaluated MuClone through synthetic and real data from spatially sampled ovarian cancers. Results support the hypothesis that clonal information improves sensitivity in detecting somatic mutations without compromising specificity. In addition, MuClone classifies mutations across whole genomes of multiple samples into biologically meaningful groups, providing additional phylogenetic insights and enhancing the study of WGS-derived clonal dynamics.

To examine the variance reduction from portfolios with both primary and derivative assets we develop a mean-variance Markovitz portfolio management problem. By invoking the delta-gamma approximation we reduce the problem to a well-posed quadratic programming problem. From a practitioner's perspective, the primary goal is to understand the benefits of adding derivative securities to portfolios of primary assets. Our numerical experiments quantify this variance reduction from sample equity portfolios to mixed portfolios (containing both equities and equity derivatives).