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The land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, as a source and a sink of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, is critical for achieving carbon neutrality. Many academic journals have published papers on land use carbon emission or sink (LUCES), but LUCES reviews are relatively rare, which poses great challenges in accurately understanding the research progress and future prospects. This work analyzes the research characteristics, hotspots and future perspectives of LUCES research by using a bibliometric analysis (such as DDA, VOSviewer, CiteSpace software) and a review based on the data (6115 scientific papers) during 1991–2023 from the Web of Science (WoS) platform. We found that (1) over the past 33 years, it first presented a steady growth, then fluctuating growth, and finally a rapid growth trend in the yearly number of publications in LUCES research. The USA (17.31%), China (14.96%), and the UK (7.37%) occupy a dominant position in this research field. (2) The related LUCES research is interdisciplinary, which mainly cover science and technology, meteorology and atmospheric sciences, geology, and environmental sciences and ecology disciplines. (3) The research hotspot analysis on LUCES shows that these articles mostly covered the follow three aspects: ecosystem services, climate change, and carbon neutrality. (4) A review of the past LUCES literature suggests that it is mainly focused on exploring the forefront issues in terms of the definition and boundaries, evaluation method and influencing factors, etc. This work suggests that further research could explore the main scientific problems on quantification of land-based carbon neutrality, quantitative analysis of the impact mechanisms, as well as interdisciplinary research and collaborative governance needed for carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy saving and emissions reduction of the construction industry are crucial for China to achieve the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" goals. In order to promote the green development of the life cycle of the construction industry and improve the efficiency of emissions reduction. This paper examines the spatial-temporal distribution of life cycle carbon emissions in China's construction industry (LCCECI) from 2004 to 2018. It uses the SBM-Malmquist total factor productivity (TFP) index to measure technological progress and establishes the spatial econometric model based on the STIRPAT model. The study investigates the driving factors of the LCCECI at the provincial and regional levels, aiming to provide suggestions for low-carbon development in the construction industry. The research results are as follows. © The growth in the SBM-Malmquist TFP index of the construction industry distinctly curbs the LCCECI. © Total population and urbanization level are not the primary driving factors for the LCCECI. The growth of per capita GDP significantly induces the LCCECI, while concurrently exhibiting a notable inhibitory effect on the LCCECI of neighboring regions. © The improvement of the SBM-Malmquist TFP index is conducive to the reduction of the LCCECI in the three major regions. The per capita GDP has the largest positive driving effect of the LCCECI in the eastern region, and the urbanization level the urbanization rate only significantly inhibits the growth of the LCCECI in the central region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The local land use carbon budget (LUCB) balance is an important factor in achieving regional carbon neutrality. As the basic unit of China's economic development and social governance, the county level is an important part of the realization of the "double carbon" goal. This paper focuses on 1069 county units within the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). It utilizes data on land use, nighttime light, energy consumption, and social and economic factors to construct carbon emission models. The spatiotemporal characteristics of LUCB in these county units are analyzed using standard deviational ellipse (SDE) and spatial autocorrelation methods. Additionally, a zoning study is conducted by examining the economic contribution coefficient (ECC) of carbon emissions, the ecological support coefficient (ESC), and their coupling relationship. The results show that (1) the total land use carbon emissions (LUCE) increased significantly during the research period, and the total carbon sink was relatively stable. (2) The LUCB is spatially high in the east and low in the west, with the center of gravity moving to the southwest as a whole. (3) The LUCB shows positive spatial autocorrelation and has significant spatial agglomeration characteristics, which are mainly high–high and low–low regional agglomeration types. (4) The ECC is high in the east and low in the west, the ESC is high in the west and low in the east, and the coordination and coupling degrees of the two are low. (5) According to the ECC and ESC, the county unit is divided into a low-carbon conservation area, an economic development area, a carbon sink development area, and a comprehensive optimization area. This study is helpful in promoting the sustainable development of carbon neutrality and low carbon in the YREB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving carbon neutrality is an important initiative to cope with global warming. Most studies on the role of tourism towards carbon neutrality were based on the carbon emission reduction (CER) perspective while the carbon sink (CS) perspective was lacking. Based on the quasi-natural experiment of high-standard scenic spots, this paper aimed to examine the effect of tourism resources development on regional CS with high-precision multi-source datasets of 2601 Chinese county units. According to the results of the time-varying difference-in-difference (DID) model regression, CNSA significantly deteriorated CS, but the findings of the rolling regression test confirmed that the adverse effect diminished over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Chile are four large developing countries in Latin American that are going on their development stage comparable to China. Getting insight into the carbon emissions and the effectiveness of the carbon neutrality policies in these countries are expected to be beneficial for China s carbon neutrality aspirations. With the data of the national "fossil fuel carbon emissions and terrestrial carbon balance of the four countries from 1990 to 2016, this paper examined the individuality and commonality in the carbon emission and carbon sequestration features and the driving forces. Thereafter, based on a systematic and comprehensive review of policy planning related to long-term emission reduction goals in the four Latin American countries, the scenario analysis method was used to evaluate the carbon emission reduction effectiveness and carbon neutrality of each country from 2017 to 2050. It is found as follows. ➀ The economic growth and demographic expansion were the two most important factors that pushed the fossil fuel carbon emissions in all the four countries. The improvement in energy utilization intensity in Mexico, Argentina and Chile had the effect of mitigating carbon emissions. Deforestation deviated Brazil and Argentina from their carbon neutrality goals while Mexico and Chile s terrestrial ecosystems had sequestered amount of carbon from the atmosphere to offset their fossil fuel emissions, by which Chile is nearing its carbon neutrality. ➁ The scenario analysis suggested that the current policies might facilitate Brazil to commit its 2025 and 2030 goals and close to its 2050 carbon neutrality goal. The current policies may also support Argentina commit its 2030 goal and Chile commit its 2050 carbon neutrality goal. However, there are challenges to Argentina's 2050 goal and Mexico's all intermediate goals. In light of these results, China's carbon neutrality strategies should prioritize three aspects: optimizing the energy structure, promoting energy efficiency, and enhancing terrestrial carbon sink sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emissions from land use change have become one of the main sources of regional carbon emissions. In order to explore the changes, 87 districts and counties in Gansu Province are taken as research objects. Based on the remote sensing data and statistical data of land use, the carbon emission coefficient method was used to investigate the spatial characteristics of land use carbon emission of each district and county in Gansu Province in recent 20 years from the perspective of carbon ecological support coefficient and per capita carbon footprint. The main results are as follows: (1) the growth of land use carbon emissions in Gansu Province from 2000 to 2020 was significant, but the growth of carbon emissions after 2010 was fast, and the growth of carbon sinks was relatively slow. (2) The ecological support coefficient of carbon emissions at county level in Gansu Province showed a trend of high in the south and low in the north, high in the east and low in the west, and this trend became more and more obvious with the passage of time. (3) Based on carbon emission, county population, and carbon ecological support capacity, the per capita carbon footprint of each county in Gansu Province was analyzed. The results showed that the per capita carbon footprint in Gansu Province was increasing, indicating that the gap between carbon emission and carbon absorption in each county was widening. By the above result, the author divides the counties of Gansu Province into three regions, low-carbon maintenance area, green development area, and ecological optimization area, and puts forward development suggestions for different regions, respectively. Therefore, this paper can also provide a theoretical reference for the formulation of carbon neutral planning measures in inland northwest China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use and land cover (LULC) will cause large flows of carbon sources and sinks. As the world's largest carbon emitter with a complicated LULC, China's carbon emissions have profound implications for its ecological environment and future development. In this paper, we account for the land-use changes and carbon emissions of 30 Chinese provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, the spatial correlation of carbon emissions among the study areas is explored. Four typical regions with spatial association (Beijing, Hebei, Sichuan, and Anhui) are selected, and their land-use change trends in 2025 and 2030 are simulated to predict the total carbon emissions in the future. The results show that the distribution of land-use in China is mainly cultivated and woodland, but the growth of urban built-up (UBL) land area indirectly leads to the continuous increase of carbon emissions. Total carbon emissions have increased over the past two decades, albeit at a slower growth rate, with some provinces experiencing no further growth. In the typical regional carbon emission simulation, it is found that the carbon emissions of the four provinces would show a downward trend in the future. The main reason is the reduction in indirect carbon emissions from fossil energy in UBL, while the other part is the influx of carbon sinks due to grassland, woodland, etc. We recommended that future carbon reduction measures should focus and prioritize controlling fossil energy and mitigating carbon emissions from UBL. Simultaneously, the significant contribution of forests and other land types as carbon sinks should be acknowledged to better implement China's carbon neutral commitment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon sink is the process of absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere, through forests, wetlands, grasslands, and oceans. Through this process, greenhouse gases can be absorbed from the atmosphere. In order to analyze the contribution of carbon sinks to carbon neutrality, three parts of works were carried out on carbon sinks in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Firstly, the regional carbon sinks were calculated based on actual data. Secondly, the macro-factors were selected related to carbon sinks, on which the econometric analysis was carried out. Finally, a carbon sink prediction model was constructed based on partial least squares regression. After that, three carbon sink development scenarios with different intensities were set up. Under these three scenarios, the carbon sink potential of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was forecasted from 2020 to 2030. The results show that under the strong carbon sink scenario, the carbon sink in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei can neutralize 388.6901 million tons/a of carbon emissions by 2030, whose contribution rate to China's carbon emission reduction can reach 10.48%. Compared with the baseline scenario and weak carbon sink scenario, the strong carbon sink scenario can achieve greater carbon sink potential and contribute more to China's carbon neutrality. As a conclusion, the target of carbon neutrality of China can be easier to achieve under the strong carbon sink scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the global context, countries must reduce carbon dioxide emissions to "net zero" by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. China's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve the carbon neutrality target by 2060. To monitor the achievements of the NDCs, establishing an annual-based accounting mechanism is necessary to record the carbon stocks in China, especially for Blue Carbon. The paper aims to present China's first national-scale systematic Blue Carbon accounting for mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrasses, covering the accounting subjects of physical and monetary assets, as well as relevant indicators for investors. It focuses on the design of the accounting method and system, the selection of data categories applied to this system, and the application of China's Blue Carbon accounting based on this accounting system. Taking Blue Carbon accounting as a starting point, this paper analyses the restoration prospects of these ecosystems and their application potential for NDCs in China compared with the terrestrial ecosystems. The results indicate that mangroves are the most cost-effective type of ecosystem, even compared to terrestrial forests. Thus, the paper provides policymakers with a new perspective on the decision-making of carbon sequestration relevant decisions, aiming to promote the monitoring, restoration, and expansion of China's coastal blue carbon ecosystem through the establishment of a sound Blue Carbon accounting system, and to help achieve the carbon neutrality goal in China's NDCs through regular and systematic monitoring of its national Blue Carbon inventories. • China's coastal blue carbon ecosystems are carbon sources rather than carbon sinks. • Mangroves are the most cost-effective coastal blue carbon ecosystem compared to salt marshes and seagrass beds. • The Blue Carbon of mangroves is more cost-effective than the Green Carbon of terrestrial forests when meeting China's Nationally Determined Contributions target of increasing forest stocks. • Establishing guidelines for Blue Carbon data requirements will lay a scientific foundation for formulating strategies and policies to cope with global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has committed to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. Hebei, as a major energy province in China, has more challenging carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets. Based on the extended STIRPAT model, this paper evaluates the time to peak carbon and post-peak carbon trend changes in Hebei province under different scenarios from 2020 to 2060. Based on the support vector machine model with particle swarm optimization, this paper evaluates the carbon neutral pathways under different scenarios in Hebei province from 2020 to 2060 in terms of forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS). The results show that a monotonically flat trend without inflection point, a single-inflection-point plateau-period trend and a multi-inflection-point inverted U-wave trend occur after carbon peaks. Hebei Province can achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 under the policy scenario and the enhanced scenario, and the enhanced scenario is better. Comparing with existing studies, the innovation of this paper is to design different trends of changes after carbon peak, combining carbon absorption and carbon emission, and providing more diversified development paths for carbon neutral strategies through a more integrated perspective and multi-scenario comprehensive analysis. Therefore, In the future, Hebei Province should establish a platform for carbon emissions monitoring and carbon footprint assessment, and set up an early warning and assessment mechanism for carbon peaking, so as to prevent a rebound trend in carbon emissions after peaking. At the same time, it should introduce and develop carbon capture and conversion technologies and promote the low-carbon transformation of the industrial and energy sectors, thereby forcing the early realization of peak carbon. Pay attention to the role of forestry resources in carbon neutrality, increase carbon sink resources such as forests and wetlands, promote the development of CCUS, and enhance the implementation of the policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the global context of carbon neutrality, higher education parks are an important strategic position for achieving China's goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization. Strategies from the perspective of life cycle to guide early low-carbon planning and design are an effective way to achieve carbon emission reduction goals. As the scale of university construction gradually expands, the "urban" attributes of them are becoming prominent. However, there is no quantitative study on analyzing the life cycle carbon emission strategies at both the building and urban scale based on sustainability rating systems. This study first extracts the design strategies according to BREEAM, LEED, DGNB and relative assessment standards for campuses and cities in China at the building and urban scale based on the 7-dimensional low-carbon strategy framework, then sorts out and compares the proportions of carbon-emission-related strategies across various dimensions and life cycle stages. It then summarizes the applications and concerns of low-carbon design strategies at different design scales. Finally, the weighting and calculation methods of life cycle carbon emissions in different sustainability rating systems are compared, the scope and methods of carbon emission benchmarks under different standards are compiled, and the evaluation method for locally applicable carbon emission benchmarks in China is proposed in light of China's national conditions, which provides guidance for the design process and standard formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite a gradual decline in rural population due to urbanization, as of 2022, approximately 35% of China's total population still resides in villages. Over a span of 40 years, carbon emissions from villages have significantly surged, with a sevenfold increase from energy consumption and a 46% rise from agriculture. Consequentially, the development of low-carbon villages is imperative. A comprehensive understanding of the primary sources of carbon emissions in villages is crucial for implementing practical and effective strategies towards low-carbon development. However, limited research has been conducted on quantifying carbon emissions and sinks for Chinese villages. This study aims to address this gap by proposing a methodology for assessing carbon emissions in villages, including the emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O. Inspired by the IPCC standard methodology for greenhouse gas emissions at national levels and provincial greenhouse gas inventory guidelines customized for China's context incorporating localized characteristics, this approach has been applied to seven villages in Northern China based on field investigations. Employing a range of methods including field surveys, questionnaires, statistical records and big-data platforms, we collected the carbon emission activity levels of the seven villages using the most up-to-date carbon emission factors. Subsequently, the collected data and facts are quantitatively processed to generate results that are compared among the seven villages. These findings are also compared with those from other studies. The analysis indicates that the primary industries in these villages significantly influence the total carbon emissions. Moreover, the study reveals that energy consumption in buildings, agriculture, transportation and waste disposal are the most influential emission sources. These findings provide valuable insights into the carbon emission landscape of villages and can serve as a guide for implementing strategies and policies aimed at promoting low-carbon development in the rural areas of Northern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the pursuit of carbon neutrality, state-owned forests are prime candidates for carbon offset projects due to their unique tenure and management characteristics. Employing methodologies endorsed by the International Panel on Climate Change and logistic growth curves, this study assesses the carbon stocks and sequestration potential of established state-owned plantation forests across 31 Chinese provinces from 2023 to 2060, encompassing seven forestry industry groups. This study projects that by 2060, these forests will amass a carbon stock of 558.25 MtC, with the highest stock in Northeast China (122.09 MtC) and the lowest in Northwest China (32.27 MtC), notably showing the highest growth rate at 91.15%. Over the forecast period, they are expected to accumulate a carbon sink of 637.07 MtCO2e, translating to an average annual carbon sink of 17.22 MtCO2e and an average annual carbon sink per unit of 1.41 tons of CO2 per hectare per year. Additionally, state-owned forests have the potential to offset approximately 0.15%–0.17% of annual carbon emissions, aligning with international climate goals. However, it is essential to note that the conversion of these carbon sinks into tradable carbon credits is subject to specific methodology requirements. Therefore, the future development of carbon offset projects in China's state-owned forests should consider the advancement of carbon market mechanisms, including the Chinese Certified Emission Reduction and the introduction of a carbon inclusion mechanism and natural forest methodology, to fully realize their potential contributions to carbon neutrality. In summary, these findings offer valuable insights for shaping the future of carbon offset initiatives within China's state-owned forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Carbon neutrality has become a key strategy to combat global climate change. However, current methods for predicting carbon emissions are limited and require the development of more effective strategies to meet this challenge. This is especially true in the field of sports and competitions, where the energy intensity of major events and activities means that time series data is crucial for predicting related carbon emissions, as it can detail the emission patterns over a period of time. Method: In this study, we introduce an artificial intelligence-based method aimed at improving the accuracy and reliability of carbon emission predictions. Specifically, our model integrates an Improved Mahjong Search Algorithm (ISSA) and GRU-Transformer technology, designed to efficiently process and analyze the complex time series data generated by sporting events. These technological components help to capture and parse carbon emission data more accurately. Results: Experimental results have demonstrated the efficiency of our model, which underwent a comprehensive evaluation involving multiple datasets and was benchmarked against competing models. Our model outperformed others across various performance metrics, including lower RMSE and MAE values and higher R2 scores. This underscores the significant potential of our model in enhancing the accuracy of carbon emission predictions. Discussion: By introducing this new AI-based method for predicting carbon emissions, this study not only provides more accurate data support for optimizing and implementing carbon neutrality measures in the sports fi eld but also improves the accuracy of time series data predictions. This enables a deeper understanding of carbon emission trends associated with sports activities. It contributes to the development of more effective mitigation strategies, making a significant contribution to global efforts to reduce carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global greenhouse gas emission, major factor driving climate change, has been increasing since nineteenth century. STIRPAT and CEVSA models were performed to estimate the carbon emission peaks and terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks at the provincial level in China, respectively. Utilizing the growth characteristics and the peak time criteria for the period 1997–2019, the patterns of energy consumption and CO2 emissions from 30 Chinese provinces are categorized into four groups: (i) one-stage increase (5 provinces), (ii) two-stage increase (10 provinces), (iii) maximum around 2013 (13 provinces), and (iv) maximum around 2017 (2 provinces). According to the STIRPAT model, the anticipated time of peak CO2 emissions for Beijing from the third group is ~ 2025 in both business-as-usual and high-speed scenarios. For Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region from the first group and Zhejiang province from the second group, the expected peak time is 2025 to 2030. Shaanxi province from the fourth group is likely to reach carbon emission peak before 2030. The inventory-based estimate of China's terrestrial carbon sink is ~ 266.2 Tg C/a during the period 1982–2015, offsetting 18.3% of contemporary CO2 emissions. The province-level CO2 emissions, peak emissions and terrestrial carbon sinks estimates presented here are significant for those concerned with carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The significant carbon emissions generated by China's sludge treatment industry cannot be ignored. However, with only a few recent well-executed studies on carbon emission reduction in the sludge treatment field, the literature awaits a more comprehensive assessment and prediction whether the sludge treatment industry can achieve the dual-carbon target. This article aims to fill this gap, holistically examining the carbon emission reduction potential in the industry. Using the moving average method and IPCC method, the projected carbon emission value of sludge treatment in China from 2021 to 2030 indicates a total net carbon emission of 0.3 million tons by 2030. This suggests that the sludge treatment industry is on track to meet the carbon peak target, leaving surplus carbon quotas or credits available to assist other industries for carbon emissions reductions. The study also finds that only incineration and composting demonstrate the potential to be able to partially offset carbon emissions through resource utilization in certain stages or processes. Therefore, the current sludge treatment methods do not yield comprehensive emission reduction effects and cannot provide sufficient contribution to China's dual carbon goals. To address this issue, the paper explores a new scheme that focuses on improving the sludge treatment process. The scheme comparative analysis reveals that, even with all sludge treatment methods optimized, the total net carbon emissions of the industry could only be reduced to 0.058 million tons. This reduction falls short of significantly mitigating carbon emissions to achieve the carbon neutrality goal. Therefore, industries unable to achieve substantial net carbon reduction may need to explore alternative measures, such as carbon sinks, to ultimately attain carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]