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Selective attention implements preferential routing of attended stimuli, likely through increasing the influence of the respective synaptic inputs on higher-area neurons. As the inputs of competing stimuli converge onto postsynaptic neurons, presynaptic circuits might offer the best target for attentional top-down influences. If those influences enabled presynaptic circuits to selectively entrain postsynaptic neurons, this might explain selective routing. Indeed, when two visual stimuli induce two gamma rhythms in V1, only the gamma induced by the attended stimulus entrains gamma in V4. Here, we modelled induced responses with a Dynamic Causal Model for Cross-Spectral Densities and found that selective entrainment can be explained by attentional modulation of intrinsic V1 connections. Specifically, local inhibition was decreased in the granular input layer and increased in the supragranular output layer of the V1 circuit that processed the attended stimulus. Thus, presynaptic attentional influences and ensuing entrainment were sufficient to mediate selective routing., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest P.F. has a patent on thin-film electrodes and is beneficiary of a respective license contract with Blackrock Microsystems LLC (Salt Lake City, UT, USA). P.F. is a member of the Advisory Board of CorTec GmbH (Freiburg, Germany)., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

For a growing number of researchers, it is now accepted that the brain is a predictive organ that predicts the content of the sensorium and crucially the precision of-or confidence in-its own predictions. In order to predict the precision of its predictions, the brain has to infer the reliability of its own beliefs. This means that our brains have to recognise the precision of their predictions or, at least, their accuracy. In this paper, we argue that fluency is product of this recognition process. In short, to recognise fluency is to infer that we have a precise 'grip' on the unfolding processes that generate our sensations. More specifically, we propose that it is changes in fluency - from unfelt to felt - that are both recognised and realised when updating predictions about precision. Unfelt fluency orients attention to unpredicted sensations, while felt fluency supervenes on-and contextualises-unfelt fluency; thereby rendering certain attentional processes, phenomenologically opaque. As such, fluency underwrites the precision we place in our predictions and therefore acts upon our perceptual inferences. Hence, the causes of conscious subjective inference have unconscious perceptual precursors., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

This article details a scheme for approximate Bayesian inference, which has underpinned thousands of neuroimaging studies since its introduction 15 years ago. Variational Laplace (VL) provides a generic approach to fitting linear or non-linear models, which may be static or dynamic, returning a posterior probability density over the model parameters and an approximation of log model evidence, which enables Bayesian model comparison. VL applies variational Bayesian inference in conjunction with quadratic or Laplace approximations of the evidence lower bound (free energy). Importantly, update equations do not need to be derived for each model under consideration, providing a general method for fitting a broad class of models. This primer is intended for experimenters and modellers who may wish to fit models to data using variational Bayesian methods, without assuming previous experience of variational Bayes or machine learning. Accompanying code demonstrates how to fit different kinds of model using the reference implementation of the VL scheme in the open-source Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software package. In addition, we provide a standalone software function that does not require SPM, in order to ease translation to other fields, together with detailed pseudocode. Finally, the supplementary materials provide worked derivations of the key equations., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Existing whole-brain models are generally tailored to the modelling of a particular data modality (e.g., fMRI or MEG/EEG). We propose that despite the differing aspects of neural activity each modality captures, they originate from shared network dynamics. Building on the universal principles of self-organising delay-coupled nonlinear systems, we aim to link distinct features of brain activity - captured across modalities - to the dynamics unfolding on a macroscopic structural connectome. To jointly predict connectivity, spatiotemporal and transient features of distinct signal modalities, we consider two large-scale models - the Stuart Landau and Wilson and Cowan models - which generate short-lived 40 Hz oscillations with varying levels of realism. To this end, we measure features of functional connectivity and metastable oscillatory modes (MOMs) in fMRI and MEG signals - and compare them against simulated data. We show that both models can represent MEG functional connectivity (FC), functional connectivity dynamics (FCD) and generate MOMs to a comparable degree. This is achieved by adjusting the global coupling and mean conduction time delay and, in the WC model, through the inclusion of balance between excitation and inhibition. For both models, the omission of delays dramatically decreased the performance. For fMRI, the SL model performed worse for FCD and MOMs, highlighting the importance of balanced dynamics for the emergence of spatiotemporal and transient patterns of ultra-slow dynamics. Notably, optimal working points varied across modalities and no model was able to achieve a correlation with empirical FC higher than 0.4 across modalities for the same set of parameters. Nonetheless, both displayed the emergence of FC patterns that extended beyond the constraints of the anatomical structure. Finally, we show that both models can generate MOMs with empirical-like properties such as size (number of brain regions engaging in a mode) and duration (continuous time interval during which a mode appears). Our results demonstrate the emergence of static and dynamic properties of neural activity at different timescales from networks of delay-coupled oscillators at 40 Hz. Given the higher dependence of simulated FC on the underlying structural connectivity, we suggest that mesoscale heterogeneities in neural circuitry may be critical for the emergence of parallel cross-modal functional networks and should be accounted for in future modelling endeavours., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest Authors declare that they have no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

We present a hierarchical empirical Bayesian framework for testing hypotheses about neurotransmitters' concertation as empirical prior for synaptic physiology using ultra-high field magnetic resonance spectroscopy (7T-MRS) and magnetoencephalography data (MEG). A first level dynamic causal modelling of cortical microcircuits is used to infer the connectivity parameters of a generative model of individuals' neurophysiological observations. At the second level, individuals' 7T-MRS estimates of regional neurotransmitter concentration supply empirical priors on synaptic connectivity. We compare the group-wise evidence for alternative empirical priors, defined by monotonic functions of spectroscopic estimates, on subsets of synaptic connections. For efficiency and reproducibility, we used Bayesian model reduction (BMR), parametric empirical Bayes and variational Bayesian inversion. In particular, we used Bayesian model reduction to compare alternative model evidence of how spectroscopic neurotransmitter measures inform estimates of synaptic connectivity. This identifies the subset of synaptic connections that are influenced by individual differences in neurotransmitter levels, as measured by 7T-MRS. We demonstrate the method using resting-state MEG (i.e., task-free recording) and 7T-MRS data from healthy adults. Our results confirm the hypotheses that GABA concentration influences local recurrent inhibitory intrinsic connectivity in deep and superficial cortical layers, while glutamate influences the excitatory connections between superficial and deep layers and connections from superficial to inhibitory interneurons. Using within-subject split-sampling of the MEG dataset (i.e., validation by means of a held-out dataset), we show that model comparison for hypothesis testing can be highly reliable. The method is suitable for applications with magnetoencephalography or electroencephalography, and is well-suited to reveal the mechanisms of neurological and psychiatric disorders, including responses to psychopharmacological interventions., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The author declares no competing interests., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Motor skill learning relies on neural plasticity in the motor and limbic systems. However, the spatial and temporal characteristics of these changes-and their microstructural underpinnings-remain unclear. Eighteen healthy males received 1 h of training in a computer-based motion game, 4 times a week, for 4 consecutive weeks, while 14 untrained participants underwent scanning only. Performance improvements were observed in all trained participants. Serial myelin- and iron-sensitive multiparametric mapping at 3T during this period of intensive motor skill acquisition revealed temporally and spatially distributed, performance-related microstructural changes in the grey and white matter across a corticospinal-cerebellar-hippocampal circuit. Analysis of the trajectory of these transient changes suggested time-shifted cascades of plasticity from the dominant sensorimotor system to the contralateral hippocampus. In the cranial corticospinal tracts, changes in myelin-sensitive metrics during training in the posterior limb of the internal capsule were of greater magnitude in those who trained their upper limbs vs. lower limb trainees. Motor skill learning is associated with waves of grey and white matter plasticity, across a broad sensorimotor network., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None., (Crown Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Advances in social neuroscience have made neural signatures of social exchange measurable simultaneously across people. This has identified brain regions differentially active during social interaction between human dyads, but the underlying systems-level mechanisms are incompletely understood. This paper introduces dynamic causal modeling and Bayesian model comparison to assess the causal and directed connectivity between two brains in the context of hyperscanning (h-DCM). In this setting, correlated neuronal responses become the data features that have to be explained by models with and without between-brain (effective) connections. Connections between brains can be understood in the context of generalized synchrony, which explains how dynamical systems become synchronized when they are coupled to each another. Under generalized synchrony, each brain state can be predicted by the other brain or a mixture of both. Our results show that effective connectivity between brains is not a feature within dyads per se but emerges selectively during social exchange. We demonstrate a causal impact of the sender's brain activity on the receiver of information, which explains previous reports of two-brain synchrony. We discuss the implications of this work; in particular, how characterizing generalized synchrony enables the discovery of between-brain connections in any social contact, and the advantage of h-DCM in studying brain function on the subject level, dyadic level, and group level within a directed model of (between) brain function., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest A.M.-L. received the following incomes: Consultancy: Boehringer Ingelheim, Elsevier, Brainsway, Lundbeck Int. Neuroscience Foundation, Lundbeck A/S, The Wolfson Foundation, Bloomfield Holding Ltd, Shanghai Research Center for Brain Science, Thieme Verlag, Sage Therapeutics, v Behring Röntgen Stiftung, Fondation FondaMental, Janssen-Cilag GmbH, MedinCell, Brain Mind Institute, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, CISSN (Catania Internat. Summer School of Neuroscience), Daimler und Benz Stiftung, American Association for the Advancement of Science. Speaker fees: Italian Society of Biological Psychiatry, Merz-Stiftung, Forum Werkstatt Karlsruhe, Lundbeck SAS France, BAG Psychiatrie Oberbayern, Klinik für Psychiatrie und Psychotherapie Ingolstadt, med Update GmbH, Society of Biological Psychiatry, Siemens Healthineers. Written: A.M.-L. has received consultant fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, Elsevier, Brainsway, Lundbeck Int. Neuroscience Foundation, Lundbeck A/S, The Wolfson Foundation, Bloomfield Holding Ltd, Shanghai Research Center for Brain Science, Thieme Verlag, Sage Therapeutics, v Behring Röntgen Stiftung, Fondation FondaMental, Janssen-Cilag GmbH, MedinCell, Brain Mind Institute, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, CISSN (Catania Internat. Summer School of Neuroscience), Daimler und Benz Stiftung and American Association for the Advancement of Science and speaker fees from the Italian Society of Biological Psychiatry, Merz-Stiftung, Forum Werkstatt Karlsruhe, Lundbeck SAS France, BAG Psychiatrie Oberbayern, Klinik für Psychiatrie und Psychotherapie Ingolstadt, med Update GmbH, Society of Biological Psychiatry, Siemens Healthineers. All other authors declare no interst., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

This paper considers the phenomenology of depersonalisation disorder, in relation to predictive processing and its associated pathophysiology. To do this, we first establish a few mechanistic tenets of predictive processing that are necessary to talk about phenomenal transparency, mental action, and self as subject. We briefly review the important role of 'predicting precision' and how this affords mental action and the loss of phenomenal transparency. We then turn to sensory attenuation and the phenomenal consequences of (pathophysiological) failures to attenuate or modulate sensory precision. We then consider this failure in the context of depersonalisation disorder. The key idea here is that depersonalisation disorder reflects the remarkable capacity to explain perceptual engagement with the world via the hypothesis that "I am an embodied perceiver, but I am not in control of my perception". We suggest that individuals with depersonalisation may believe that 'another agent' is controlling their thoughts, perceptions or actions, while maintaining full insight that the 'other agent' is 'me' (the self). Finally, we rehearse the predictions of this formal analysis, with a special focus on the psychophysical and physiological abnormalities that may underwrite the phenomenology of depersonalisation., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The active inference framework, and in particular its recent formulation as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), has gained increasing popularity in recent years as a useful approach for modeling neurocognitive processes. This framework is highly general and flexible in its ability to be customized to model any cognitive process, as well as simulate predicted neuronal responses based on its accompanying neural process theory. It also affords both simulation experiments for proof of principle and behavioral modeling for empirical studies. However, there are limited resources that explain how to build and run these models in practice, which limits their widespread use. Most introductions assume a technical background in programming, mathematics, and machine learning. In this paper we offer a step-by-step tutorial on how to build POMDPs, run simulations using standard MATLAB routines, and fit these models to empirical data. We assume a minimal background in programming and mathematics, thoroughly explain all equations, and provide exemplar scripts that can be customized for both theoretical and empirical studies. Our goal is to provide the reader with the requisite background knowledge and practical tools to apply active inference to their own research. We also provide optional technical sections and multiple appendices, which offer the interested reader additional technical details. This tutorial should provide the reader with all the tools necessary to use these models and to follow emerging advances in active inference research., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

This technical note introduces adiabatic dynamic causal modelling, a method for inferring slow changes in biophysical parameters that control fluctuations of fast neuronal states. The application domain we have in mind is inferring slow changes in variables (e.g., extracellular ion concentrations or synaptic efficacy) that underlie phase transitions in brain activity (e.g., paroxysmal seizure activity). The scheme is efficient and yet retains a biophysical interpretation, in virtue of being based on established neural mass models that are equipped with a slow dynamic on the parameters (such as synaptic rate constants or effective connectivity). In brief, we use an adiabatic approximation to summarise fast fluctuations in hidden neuronal states (and their expression in sensors) in terms of their second order statistics; namely, their complex cross spectra. This allows one to specify and compare models of slowly changing parameters (using Bayesian model reduction) that generate a sequence of empirical cross spectra of electrophysiological recordings. Crucially, we use the slow fluctuations in the spectral power of neuronal activity as empirical priors on changes in synaptic parameters. This introduces a circular causality, in which synaptic parameters underwrite fast neuronal activity that, in turn, induces activity-dependent plasticity in synaptic parameters. In this foundational paper, we describe the underlying model, establish its face validity using simulations and provide an illustrative application to a chemoconvulsant animal model of seizure activity., (Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Drugs affecting neuromodulation, for example by dopamine or acetylcholine, take centre stage among therapeutic strategies in psychiatry. These neuromodulators can change both neuronal gain and synaptic plasticity and therefore affect electrophysiological measures. An important goal for clinical diagnostics is to exploit this effect in the reverse direction, i.e., to infer the status of specific neuromodulatory systems from electrophysiological measures. In this study, we provide proof-of-concept that the functional status of cholinergic (specifically muscarinic) receptors can be inferred from electrophysiological data using generative (dynamic causal) models. To this end, we used epidural EEG recordings over two auditory cortical regions during a mismatch negativity (MMN) paradigm in rats. All animals were treated, across sessions, with muscarinic receptor agonists and antagonists at different doses. Together with a placebo condition, this resulted in five levels of muscarinic receptor status. Using a dynamic causal model - embodying a small network of coupled cortical microcircuits - we estimated synaptic parameters and their change across pharmacological conditions. The ensuing parameter estimates associated with (the neuromodulation of) synaptic efficacy showed both graded muscarinic effects and predictive validity between agonistic and antagonistic pharmacological conditions. This finding illustrates the potential utility of generative models of electrophysiological data as computational assays of muscarinic function. In application to EEG data of patients from heterogeneous spectrum diseases, e.g. schizophrenia, such models might help identify subgroups of patients that respond differentially to cholinergic treatments. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: In psychiatry, the vast majority of pharmacological treatments affect actions of neuromodulatory transmitters, e.g. dopamine or acetylcholine. As treatment is largely trial-and-error based, one of the goals for computational psychiatry is to construct mathematical models that can serve as "computational assays" and infer the status of specific neuromodulatory systems in individual patients. This translational neuromodeling strategy has great promise for electrophysiological data in particular but requires careful validation. The present study demonstrates that the functional status of cholinergic (muscarinic) receptors can be inferred from electrophysiological data using dynamic causal models of neural circuits. While accuracy needs to be enhanced and our results must be replicated in larger samples, our current results provide proof-of-concept for computational assays of muscarinic function using EEG., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no competing financial interests., (Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Active inference is a normative principle underwriting perception, action, planning, decision-making and learning in biological or artificial agents. From its inception, its associated process theory has grown to incorporate complex generative models, enabling simulation of a wide range of complex behaviours. Due to successive developments in active inference, it is often difficult to see how its underlying principle relates to process theories and practical implementation. In this paper, we try to bridge this gap by providing a complete mathematical synthesis of active inference on discrete state-space models. This technical summary provides an overview of the theory, derives neuronal dynamics from first principles and relates this dynamics to biological processes. Furthermore, this paper provides a fundamental building block needed to understand active inference for mixed generative models; allowing continuous sensations to inform discrete representations. This paper may be used as follows: to guide research towards outstanding challenges, a practical guide on how to implement active inference to simulate experimental behaviour, or a pointer towards various in-silico neurophysiological responses that may be used to make empirical predictions., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2020 The Authors.)

In sensorimotor integration, the brain needs to decide how its predictions should accommodate novel evidence by 'gating' sensory data depending on the current context. Here, we examined the oscillatory correlates of this process by recording magnetoencephalography (MEG) data during a new task requiring action under intersensory conflict. We used virtual reality to decouple visual (virtual) and proprioceptive (real) hand postures during a task in which the phase of grasping movements tracked a target (in either modality). Thus, we rendered visual information either task-relevant or a (to-be-ignored) distractor. Under visuo-proprioceptive incongruence, occipital beta power decreased (relative to congruence) when vision was task-relevant but increased when it had to be ignored. Dynamic causal modeling (DCM) revealed that this interaction was best explained by diametrical, task-dependent changes in visual gain. These results suggest a crucial role for beta oscillations in the contextual gating (i.e., gain or precision control) of visual vs proprioceptive action feedback, depending on current behavioral demands., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

This paper addresses perceptual synthesis by comparing responses evoked by visual stimuli before and after they are recognized, depending on prior exposure. Using magnetoencephalography, we analyzed distributed patterns of neuronal activity - evoked by Mooney figures - before and after they were recognized as meaningful objects. Recognition induced changes were first seen at 100-120 ​ms, for both faces and tools. These early effects - in right inferior and middle occipital regions - were characterized by an increase in power in the absence of any changes in spatial patterns of activity. Within a later 210-230 ​ms window, a quite different type of recognition effect appeared. Regions of the brain's value system (insula, entorhinal cortex and cingulate of the right hemisphere for faces and right orbitofrontal cortex for tools) evinced a reorganization of their neuronal activity without an overall power increase in the region. Finally, we found that during the perception of disambiguated face stimuli, a face-specific response in the right fusiform gyrus emerged at 240-290 ​ms, with a much greater latency than the well-known N170m component, and, crucially, followed the recognition effect in the value system regions. These results can clarify one of the most intriguing issues of perceptual synthesis, namely, how a limited set of high-level predictions, which is required to reduce the uncertainty when resolving the ill-posed inverse problem of perception, can be available before category-specific processing in visual cortex. We suggest that a subset of local spatial features serves as partial cues for a fast re-activation of object-specific appraisal by the value system. The ensuing top-down feedback from value system to visual cortex, in particular, the fusiform gyrus enables high levels of processing to form category-specific predictions. This descending influence of the value system was more prominent for faces than for tools, the fact that reflects different dependence of these categories on value-related information., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

This technical note presents a dynamic causal modelling (DCM) procedure for evaluating different models of neurovascular coupling in the human brain - using combined electromagnetic (M/EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. This procedure compares the evidence for biologically informed models of neurovascular coupling using Bayesian model comparison. First, fMRI data are used to localise regionally specific neuronal responses. The coordinates of these responses are then used as the location priors in a DCM of electrophysiological responses elicited by the same paradigm. The ensuing estimates of model parameters are then used to generate neuronal drive functions, which model pre- or post-synaptic activity for each experimental condition. These functions form the input to a model of neurovascular coupling, whose parameters are estimated from the fMRI data. Crucially, this enables one to evaluate different models of neurovascular coupling, using Bayesian model comparison - asking, for example, whether instantaneous or delayed, pre- or post-synaptic signals mediate haemodynamic responses. We provide an illustrative application of the procedure using a single-subject auditory fMRI and MEG dataset. The code and exemplar data accompanying this technical note are available through the statistical parametric mapping (SPM) software., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

This paper asks whether integrating multimodal EEG and fMRI data offers a better characterisation of functional brain architectures than either modality alone. This evaluation rests upon a dynamic causal model that generates both EEG and fMRI data from the same neuronal dynamics. We introduce the use of Bayesian fusion to provide informative (empirical) neuronal priors - derived from dynamic causal modelling (DCM) of EEG data - for subsequent DCM of fMRI data. To illustrate this procedure, we generated synthetic EEG and fMRI timeseries for a mismatch negativity (or auditory oddball) paradigm, using biologically plausible model parameters (i.e., posterior expectations from a DCM of empirical, open access, EEG data). Using model inversion, we found that Bayesian fusion provided a substantial improvement in marginal likelihood or model evidence, indicating a more efficient estimation of model parameters, in relation to inverting fMRI data alone. We quantified the benefits of multimodal fusion with the information gain pertaining to neuronal and haemodynamic parameters - as measured by the Kullback-Leibler divergence between their prior and posterior densities. Remarkably, this analysis suggested that EEG data can improve estimates of haemodynamic parameters; thereby furnishing proof-of-principle that Bayesian fusion of EEG and fMRI is necessary to resolve conditional dependencies between neuronal and haemodynamic estimators. These results suggest that Bayesian fusion may offer a useful approach that exploits the complementary temporal (EEG) and spatial (fMRI) precision of different data modalities. We envisage the procedure could be applied to any multimodal dataset that can be explained by a DCM with a common neuronal parameterisation., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The influence of global BOLD fluctuations on resting state functional connectivity in fMRI data remains a topic of debate, with little consensus. In this study, we assessed the effects of global signal regression (GSR) on effective connectivity within and between resting state networks (RSNs) - as estimated with dynamic causal modelling (DCM) for resting state fMRI (rsfMRI). DCM incorporates a forward (generative) model that quantifies the contribution of different types of noise (including global measurement noise), effective connectivity, and (neuro)vascular processes to functional connectivity measurements. DCM analyses were applied to two different designs; namely, longitudinal and cross-sectional designs. In the modelling of longitudinal designs, we considered four extensive longitudinal resting state fMRI datasets with a total number of 20 subjects. In the analysis of cross-sectional designs, we used rsfMRI data from 361 subjects from the Human Connectome Project. We hypothesized that (1) GSR would have no discernible impact on effective connectivity estimated with DCM, and (2) GSR would be reflected in the parameters representing global measurement noise. Additionally, we performed comparative analyses of information gain with and without GSR. Our results showed negligible to small effects of GSR on effective connectivity within small (separately estimated) RSNs. However, although the effect sizes were small, there was substantial to conclusive evidence for an effect of GSR on connectivity parameters. For between-network connectivity, we found two important effects: the effect of GSR on between-network effective connectivity (averaged over all connections) was negligible to small, while the effect of GSR on individual connections was non-negligible. In the cross-sectional (but not in the longitudinal) data, some connections showed substantial to conclusive evidence for an effect of GSR. Contrary to our expectations, we found either no effect (in the longitudinal designs) or a non-specific (cross-sectional design) effect of GSR on parameters characterising (global) measurement noise. Data without GSR were found to be more informative than data with GSR; however, in small resting state networks the precision of posterior estimates was greater after GSR. In conclusion, GSR is a minor concern in DCM studies; however, quantitative interpretation of between-network connections (as opposed to average between-network connectivity) and noise parameters should be treated with some caution. The Kullback-Leibler divergence of the posterior from the prior (i.e., information gain) - together with the precision of posterior estimates - might offer a useful measure to assess the appropriateness of GSR in resting state fMRI., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Models of coupled phase oscillators are used to describe a wide variety of phenomena in neuroimaging. These models typically rest on the premise that oscillator dynamics do not evolve beyond their respective limit cycles, and hence that interactions can be described purely in terms of phase differences. Whilst mathematically convenient, the restrictive nature of phase-only models can limit their explanatory power. We therefore propose a generalisation of dynamic causal modelling that incorporates both phase and amplitude. This allows for the separate quantifications of phase and amplitude contributions to the connectivity between neural regions. We show, using model-generated data and simulations of coupled pendula, that phase-amplitude models can describe strongly coupled systems more effectively than their phase-only counterparts. We relate our findings to four metrics commonly used in neuroimaging: the Kuramoto order parameter, cross-correlation, phase-lag index, and spectral entropy. We find that, with the exception of spectral entropy, the phase-amplitude model is able to capture all metrics more effectively than the phase-only model. We then demonstrate, using local field potential recordings in rodents and functional magnetic resonance imaging in macaque monkeys, that amplitudes in oscillator models play an important role in describing neural dynamics in anaesthetised brain states., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Metastability is a key source of itinerant dynamics in the brain; namely, spontaneous spatiotemporal reorganization of neuronal activity. This itinerancy has been the focus of numerous dynamic functional connectivity (DFC) analyses - developed to characterize the formation and dissolution of distributed functional patterns over time, using resting state fMRI. However, aside from technical and practical controversies, these approaches cannot recover the neuronal mechanisms that underwrite itinerant (e.g., metastable) dynamics-due to their descriptive, model-free nature. We argue that effective connectivity (EC) analyses are more apt for investigating the neuronal basis of metastability. To this end, we appeal to biologically-grounded models (i.e., dynamic causal modelling, DCM) and dynamical systems theory (i.e., heteroclinic sequential dynamics) to create a probabilistic, generative model of haemodynamic fluctuations. This model generates trajectories in the parametric space of EC modes (i.e., states of connectivity) that characterize functional brain architectures. In brief, it extends an established spectral DCM, to generate functional connectivity data features that change over time. This foundational paper tries to establish the model's face validity by simulating non-stationary fMRI time series and recovering key model parameters (i.e., transition probabilities among connectivity states and the parametric nature of these states) using variational Bayes. These data are further characterized using Bayesian model comparison (within and between subjects). Finally, we consider practical issues that attend applications and extensions of this scheme. Importantly, the scheme operates within a generic Bayesian framework - that can be adapted to study metastability and itinerant dynamics in any non-stationary time series., (Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

This technical note describes a variational or Bayesian implementation of representational similarity analysis (RSA) and pattern component modelling (PCM). It considers RSA and PCM as Bayesian model comparison procedures that assess the evidence for stimulus or condition-specific patterns of responses distributed over voxels or channels. On this view, one can use standard variational inference procedures to quantify the contributions of particular patterns to the data, by evaluating second-order parameters or hyperparameters. Crucially, this allows one to use parametric empirical Bayes (PEB) to infer which patterns are consistent among subjects. At the between-subject level, one can then assess the evidence for different (combinations of) hypotheses about condition-specific effects using Bayesian model comparison. Alternatively, one can select a single hypothesis that best explains the pattern of responses using Bayesian model selection. This note rehearses the technical aspects of within and between-subject RSA using a worked example, as implemented in the Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM) software. En route, we highlight the connection between univariate and multivariate analyses of neuroimaging data and the sorts of analyses that are possible using component modelling and representational similarity analysis., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

This paper provides a worked example of using Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM) and Parametric Empirical Bayes (PEB) to characterise inter-subject variability in neural circuitry (effective connectivity). It steps through an analysis in detail and provides a tutorial style explanation of the underlying theory and assumptions (i.e, priors). The analysis procedure involves specifying a hierarchical model with two or more levels. At the first level, state space models (DCMs) are used to infer the effective connectivity that best explains a subject's neuroimaging timeseries (e.g. fMRI, MEG, EEG). Subject-specific connectivity parameters are then taken to the group level, where they are modelled using a General Linear Model (GLM) that partitions between-subject variability into designed effects and additive random effects. The ensuing (Bayesian) hierarchical model conveys both the estimated connection strengths and their uncertainty (i.e., posterior covariance) from the subject to the group level; enabling hypotheses to be tested about the commonalities and differences across subjects. This approach can also finesse parameter estimation at the subject level, by using the group-level parameters as empirical priors. The preliminary first level (subject specific) DCM for fMRI analysis is covered in a companion paper. Here, we detail group-level analysis procedures that are suitable for use with data from any neuroimaging modality. This paper is accompanied by an example dataset, together with step-by-step instructions demonstrating how to reproduce the analyses., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM) is the predominant method for inferring effective connectivity from neuroimaging data. In the 15 years since its introduction, the neural models and statistical routines in DCM have developed in parallel, driven by the needs of researchers in cognitive and clinical neuroscience. In this guide, we step through an exemplar fMRI analysis in detail, reviewing the current implementation of DCM and demonstrating recent developments in group-level connectivity analysis. In the appendices, we detail the theory underlying DCM and the assumptions (i.e., priors) in the models. In the first part of the guide (current paper), we focus on issues specific to DCM for fMRI. This is accompanied by all the necessary data and instructions to reproduce the analyses using the SPM software. In the second part (in a companion paper), we move from subject-level to group-level modelling using the Parametric Empirical Bayes framework, and illustrate how to test for commonalities and differences in effective connectivity across subjects, based on imaging data from any modality., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative condition in which aberrant oscillatory synchronization of neuronal activity at beta frequencies (15-35 Hz) across the cortico-basal ganglia-thalamocortical circuit is associated with debilitating motor symptoms, such as bradykinesia and rigidity. Mounting evidence suggests that the magnitude of beta synchrony in the parkinsonian state fluctuates over time, but the mechanisms by which thalamocortical circuitry regulates the dynamic properties of cortical beta in PD are poorly understood. Using the recently developed generic Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM) framework, we recursively optimized a set of plausible models of the thalamocortical circuit (n = 144) to infer the neural mechanisms that best explain the transitions between low and high beta power states observed in recordings of field potentials made in the motor cortex of anesthetized Parkinsonian rats. Bayesian model comparison suggests that upregulation of cortical rhythmic activity in the beta-frequency band results from changes in the coupling strength both between and within the thalamus and motor cortex. Specifically, our model indicates that high levels of cortical beta synchrony are mainly achieved by a delayed (extrinsic) input from thalamic relay cells to deep pyramidal cells and a fast (intrinsic) input from middle pyramidal cells to superficial pyramidal cells. From a clinical perspective, our study provides insights into potential therapeutic strategies that could be utilized to modulate the network mechanisms responsible for the enhancement of cortical beta in PD. Specifically, we speculate that cortical stimulation aimed to reduce the enhanced excitatory inputs to either the superficial or deep pyramidal cells could be a potential non-invasive therapeutic strategy for PD., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Functional and effective connectivity are known to change systematically over time. These changes might be explained by several factors, including intrinsic fluctuations in activity-dependent neuronal coupling and contextual factors, like experimental condition and time. Furthermore, contextual effects may be subject-specific or conserved over subjects. To characterize fluctuations in effective connectivity, we used dynamic causal modelling (DCM) of cross spectral responses over 1- min of electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings during rest, divided into 1-sec windows. We focused on two intrinsic networks: the default mode and the saliency network. DCM was applied to estimate connectivity in each time-window for both networks. Fluctuations in DCM connectivity parameters were assessed using hierarchical parametric empirical Bayes (PEB). Within-subject, between-window effects were modelled with a second-level linear model with temporal basis functions as regressors. This procedure was conducted for every subject separately. Bayesian model reduction was then used to assess which (combination of) temporal basis functions best explain dynamic connectivity over windows. A third (between-subject) level model was used to infer which dynamic connectivity parameters are conserved over subjects. Our results indicate that connectivity fluctuations in the default mode network and to a lesser extent the saliency network comprised both subject-specific components and a common component. For both networks, connections to higher order regions appear to monotonically increase during the 1- min period. These results not only establish the predictive validity of dynamic connectivity estimates - in virtue of detecting systematic changes over subjects - they also suggest a network-specific dissociation in the relative contribution of fluctuations in connectivity that depend upon experimental context. We envisage these procedures could be useful for characterizing brain state transitions that may be explained by their cognitive or neuropathological underpinnings., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

A fundamental question in systems neuroscience is how endogenous neuronal activity self-organizes during particular brain states. Recent neuroimaging studies have demonstrated systematic relationships between resting-state and task-induced functional connectivity (FC). In particular, continuous task studies, such as movie watching, speak to alterations in coupling among cortical regions and enhanced fluctuations in FC compared to the resting-state. This suggests that FC may reflect systematic and large-scale reorganization of functionally integrated responses while subjects are watching movies. In this study, we characterized fluctuations in FC during resting-state and movie-watching conditions. We found that the FC patterns induced systematically by movie-watching can be explained with a single principal component. These condition-specific FC fluctuations overlapped with inter-subject synchronization patterns in occipital and temporal brain regions. However, unlike inter-subject synchronization, condition-specific FC patterns were characterized by increased correlations within frontal brain regions and reduced correlations between frontal-parietal brain regions. We investigated these condition-specific functional variations as a shorter time scale, using time-resolved FC. The time-resolved FC showed condition-specificity over time; notably when subjects watched both the same and different movies. To explain self-organisation of global FC through the alterations in local dynamics, we used a large-scale computational model. We found that condition-specific reorganization of FC could be explained by local changes that engendered changes in FC among higher-order association regions, mainly in frontal and parietal cortices., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Dynamic causal modelling (DCM) for resting state fMRI - namely spectral DCM - is a recently developed and widely adopted method for inferring effective connectivity in intrinsic brain networks. Most applications of spectral DCM have focused on group-averaged connectivity within large-scale intrinsic brain networks; however, the consistency of subject- and session-specific estimates of effective connectivity has not been evaluated. Establishing reliability (within subjects) is crucial for its clinical use; e.g., as a neurophysiological phenotype of disease progression. Effective connectivity during rest is likely to vary due to changes in cognitive, and physiological states. Quantifying these variations may help understand functional brain architectures - and inform clinical applications. In the present study, we investigated the consistency of effective connectivity within and between subjects, as well as potential sources of variability (e.g., hemispheric asymmetry). We also addressed the effects on consistency of standard data processing procedures. DCM analyses were applied to four longitudinal resting state fMRI datasets. Our sample comprised 17 subjects with 589 resting state fMRI sessions in total. These data allowed us to quantify the robustness of connectivity estimates for each subject, and to generalise our conclusions beyond specific data features. We found that subjects showed systematic and reliable patterns of hemispheric asymmetry. When asymmetry was taken into account, subjects showed very similar connectivity patterns. We also found that various processing procedures (e.g. global signal regression and ROI size) had little effect on inference and the reliability of connectivity estimates for the majority of subjects. Finally, Bayesian model reduction significantly increased the consistency of connectivity patterns., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

We present a technical development in the dynamic causal modelling of electrophysiological responses that combines qualitatively different neural mass models within a single network. This affords the option to couple various cortical and subcortical nodes that differ in their form and dynamics. Moreover, it enables users to implement new neural mass models in a straightforward and standardized way. This generic framework hence supports flexibility and facilitates the exploration of increasingly plausible models. We illustrate this by coupling a basal ganglia-thalamus model to a (previously validated) cortical model developed specifically for motor cortex. The ensuing DCM is used to infer pathways that contribute to the suppression of beta oscillations induced by dopaminergic medication in patients with Parkinson's disease. Experimental recordings were obtained from deep brain stimulation electrodes (implanted in the subthalamic nucleus) and simultaneous magnetoencephalography. In line with previous studies, our results indicate a reduction of synaptic efficacy within the circuit between the subthalamic nucleus and external pallidum, as well as reduced efficacy in connections of the hyperdirect and indirect pathway leading to this circuit. This work forms the foundation for a range of modelling studies of the synaptic mechanisms (and pathophysiology) underlying event-related potentials and cross-spectral densities., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Our behavior entails a flexible and context-sensitive interplay between brain areas to integrate information according to goal-directed requirements. However, the neural mechanisms governing the entrainment of functionally specialized brain areas remain poorly understood. In particular, the question arises whether observed changes in the regional activity for different cognitive conditions are explained by modifications of the inputs to the brain or its connectivity? We observe that transitions of fMRI activity between areas convey information about the tasks performed by 19 subjects, watching a movie versus a black screen (rest). We use a model-based framework that explains this spatiotemporal functional connectivity pattern by the local variability for 66 cortical regions and the network effective connectivity between them. We find that, among the estimated model parameters, movie viewing affects to a larger extent the local activity, which we interpret as extrinsic changes related to the increased stimulus load. However, detailed changes in the effective connectivity preserve a balance in the propagating activity and select specific pathways such that high-level brain regions integrate visual and auditory information, in particular boosting the communication between the two brain hemispheres. These findings speak to a dynamic coordination underlying the functional integration in the brain., (Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Although the relationship between resting-state functional connectivity and task-related activity has been addressed, the relationship between task and resting-state directed or effective connectivity - and its behavioral concomitants - remains elusive. We evaluated effective connectivity under an N-back working memory task in 24 participants using stochastic dynamic causal modelling (DCM) of 7 T fMRI data. We repeated the analysis using resting-state data, from the same subjects, to model connectivity among the same brain regions engaged by the N-back task. This allowed us to: (i) examine the relationship between intrinsic (task-independent) effective connectivity during resting (A rest ) and task states (A task ), (ii) cluster phenotypes of task-related changes in effective connectivity (B task ) across participants, (iii) identify edges (B task ) showing high inter-individual effective connectivity differences and (iv) associate reaction times with the similarity between B task and A rest in these edges. We found a strong correlation between A rest and A task over subjects but a marked difference between B task and A rest . We further observed a strong clustering of individuals in terms of B task , which was not apparent in A rest . The task-related effective connectivity B task varied highly in the edges from the parietal to the frontal lobes across individuals, so the three groups were clustered mainly by the effective connectivity within these networks. The similarity between B task and A rest at the edges from the parietal to the frontal lobes was positively correlated with 2-back reaction times. This result implies that a greater change in context-sensitive coupling - from resting-state connectivity - is associated with faster reaction times. In summary, task-dependent connectivity endows resting-state connectivity with a context sensitivity, which predicts the speed of information processing during the N-back task., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Many analysis methods exist to extract graphs of functional connectivity from neuronal networks. Confidence in the results is limited because, (i) different methods give different results, (ii) parameter setting directly influences the final result, and (iii) systematic evaluation of the results is not always performed. Here, we introduce MULAN (MULtiple method ANalysis), which assumes an ensemble based approach combining multiple analysis methods and fuzzy logic to extract graphs with the most probable structure. In order to reduce the dependency on parameter settings, we determine the best set of parameters using a genetic algorithm on simulated datasets, whose temporal structure is similar to the experimental one. After a validation step, the selected set of parameters is used to analyze experimental data. The final step cross-validates experimental subsets of data and provides a direct estimate of the most likely graph and our confidence in the proposed connectivity. A systematic evaluation validates our strategy against empirical stereotactic electroencephalography (SEEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data., (Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The development of large-scale network models that infer the effective (directed) connectivity among neuronal populations from neuroimaging data represents a key challenge for computational neuroscience. Dynamic causal models (DCMs) of neuroimaging and electrophysiological data are frequently used for inferring effective connectivity but are presently restricted to small graphs (typically up to 10 regions) in order to keep model inversion computationally feasible. Here, we present a novel variant of DCM for functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data that is suited to assess effective connectivity in large (whole-brain) networks. The approach rests on translating a linear DCM into the frequency domain and reformulating it as a special case of Bayesian linear regression. This paper derives regression DCM (rDCM) in detail and presents a variational Bayesian inversion method that enables extremely fast inference and accelerates model inversion by several orders of magnitude compared to classical DCM. Using both simulated and empirical data, we demonstrate the face validity of rDCM under different settings of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and repetition time (TR) of fMRI data. In particular, we assess the potential utility of rDCM as a tool for whole-brain connectomics by challenging it to infer effective connection strengths in a simulated whole-brain network comprising 66 regions and 300 free parameters. Our results indicate that rDCM represents a computationally highly efficient approach with promising potential for inferring whole-brain connectivity from individual fMRI data., (Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Effective connectivity is commonly assessed using blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signals. In (Havlicek et al., 2015), we presented a novel, physiologically informed dynamic causal model (P-DCM) that extends current generative models. We demonstrated the improvements afforded by P-DCM in terms of the ability to model commonly observed neuronal and vascular transients in single regions. Here, we assess the ability of the novel and previous DCM variants to estimate effective connectivity among a network of five ROIs driven by a visuo-motor task. We demonstrate that connectivity estimates depend sensitively on the DCM used, due to differences in the modeling of hemodynamic response transients; such as the post-stimulus undershoot or adaptation during stimulation. In addition, using a novel DCM for arterial spin labeling (ASL) fMRI that measures BOLD and CBF signals simultaneously, we confirmed our findings (by using the BOLD data alone and in conjunction with CBF). We show that P-DCM provides better estimates of effective connectivity, regardless of whether it is applied to BOLD data alone or to ASL time-series, and that all new aspects of P-DCM (i.e. neuronal, neurovascular, hemodynamic components) constitute an improvement compared to those in the previous DCM variants. In summary, (i) accurate modeling of fMRI response transients is crucial to obtain valid effective connectivity estimates and (ii) any additional hemodynamic data, such as provided by ASL, increases the ability to disambiguate neuronal and vascular effects present in the BOLD signal., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The neural processing and experience of pain are influenced by both expectations and attention. For example, the amplitude of event-related pain responses is enhanced by both novel and unexpected pain, and by moving the focus of attention towards a painful stimulus. Under predictive coding, this congruence can be explained by appeal to a precision-weighting mechanism, which mediates bottom-up and top-down attentional processes by modulating the influence of feedforward and feedback signals throughout the cortical hierarchy. The influence of expectation and attention on pain processing can be mapped onto changes in effective connectivity between or within specific neuronal populations, using a canonical microcircuit (CMC) model of hierarchical processing. We thus implemented a CMC within dynamic causal modelling for magnetoencephalography in human subjects, to investigate how expectation violation and attention to pain modulate intrinsic (within-source) and extrinsic (between-source) connectivity in the somatosensory hierarchy. This enabled us to establish whether both expectancy and attentional processes are mediated by a similar precision-encoding mechanism within a network of somatosensory, frontal and parietal sources. We found that both unexpected and attended pain modulated the gain of superficial pyramidal cells in primary and secondary somatosensory cortex. This modulation occurred in the context of increased lateralized recurrent connectivity between somatosensory and fronto-parietal sources, driven by unexpected painful occurrences. Finally, the strength of effective connectivity parameters in S1, S2 and IFG predicted individual differences in subjective pain modulation ratings. Our findings suggest that neuromodulatory gain control in the somatosensory hierarchy underlies the influence of both expectation violation and attention on cortical processing and pain perception., (Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Inferring the intentions and beliefs of another is an ability that is fundamental for social and affiliative interactions. A substantial amount of empirical evidence suggests that making sense of another's intentional and belief states (i.e. theory of mind) relies on exteroceptive (e.g. visual and auditory) and proprioceptive (i.e. motor) signals. Yet, despite its pivotal role in the guidance of behaviour, the role of the observer's interoceptive (visceral) processing in understanding another's internal states remains unexplored. Predicting and keeping track of interoceptive bodily states - which inform intentions and beliefs that guide behaviour - is one of the fundamental purposes of the human brain. In this paper, we will focus on the role of interoceptive predictions, prescribed by the free energy principle, in making sense of internal states that cause another's behaviour. We will discuss how multimodal expectations induced at deep (high) hierarchical levels - that necessarily entail interoceptive predictions - contribute to inference about others that is at the heart of theory of mind., (Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

This paper presents a physiological account of seizure activity and its evolution over time using a rat model of induced epilepsy. We analyse spectral activity recorded in the hippocampi of three rats who received kainic acid injections in the right hippocampus. We use dynamic causal modelling of seizure activity and Bayesian model reduction to identify the key synaptic and connectivity parameters that underlie seizure onset. Using recent advances in hierarchical modelling (parametric empirical Bayes), we characterise seizure onset in terms of slow fluctuations in synaptic excitability of specific neuronal populations. Our results suggest differences in the pathophysiology - of seizure activity in the lesioned versus the non-lesioned hippocampus - with pronounced changes in excitation-inhibition balance and temporal summation on the lesioned side. In particular, our analyses suggest that marked reductions in the synaptic time constant of the deep pyramidal cells and the self-inhibition of inhibitory interneurons (in the lesioned hippocampus) are sufficient to explain changes in spectral activity. Although these synaptic changes are consistent over rats, the resulting electrophysiological phenotype can be quite diverse., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The neural substrate of bodily ownership can be disclosed by the rubber hand illusion (RHI); namely, the illusory self-attribution of an artificial hand that is induced by synchronous tactile stimulation of the subject's hand that is hidden from view. Previous studies have pointed to the premotor cortex (PMC) as a pivotal area in such illusions. To investigate the effective connectivity between - and within - sensory and premotor areas involved in bodily perceptions, we used dynamic causal modeling of touch-evoked responses in 13 healthy subjects. Each subject's right hand was stroked while viewing their own hand ("REAL"), or an artificial hand presented in an anatomically plausible ("CONGRUENT") or implausible ("INCONGRUENT") position. Bayesian model comparison revealed strong evidence for a differential involvement of the PMC in the generation of touch-evoked responses under the three conditions, confirming a crucial role of PMC in bodily self-attribution. In brief, the extrinsic (forward) connection from left occipital cortex to left PMC was stronger for CONGRUENT and INCONGRUENT as compared to REAL, reflecting the augmentation of bottom-up visual input when multisensory integration is challenged. Crucially, intrinsic connectivity in the primary somatosensory cortex (S1) was attenuated in the CONGRUENT condition, during the illusory percept. These findings support predictive coding models of the functional architecture of multisensory integration (and attenuation) in bodily perceptual experience., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Oscillatory activity in the beta range, in human primary motor cortex (M1), shows interesting dynamics that are tied to behaviour and change systematically in disease. To investigate the pathophysiology underlying these changes, we must first understand how changes in beta activity are caused in healthy subjects. We therefore adapted a canonical (repeatable) microcircuit model used in dynamic causal modelling (DCM) previously used to model induced responses in visual cortex. We adapted this model to accommodate cytoarchitectural differences between visual and motor cortex. Using biologically plausible connections, we used Bayesian model selection to identify the best model of measured MEG data from 11 young healthy participants, performing a simple handgrip task. We found that the canonical M1 model had substantially more model evidence than the generic canonical microcircuit model when explaining measured MEG data. The canonical M1 model reproduced measured dynamics in humans at rest, in a manner consistent with equivalent studies performed in mice. Furthermore, the changes in excitability (self-inhibition) necessary to explain beta suppression during handgrip were consistent with the attenuation of sensory precision implied by predictive coding. These results establish the face validity of a model that can be used to explore the laminar interactions that underlie beta-oscillatory dynamics in humans in vivo. Our canonical M1 model may be useful for characterising the synaptic mechanisms that mediate pathophysiological beta dynamics associated with movement disorders, such as stroke or Parkinson's disease., (Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

This paper shows that it is possible to estimate the subjective precision (inverse variance) of Bayesian beliefs during oculomotor pursuit. Subjects viewed a sinusoidal target, with or without random fluctuations in its motion. Eye trajectories and magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data were recorded concurrently. The target was periodically occluded, such that its reappearance caused a visual evoked response field (ERF). Dynamic causal modelling (DCM) was used to fit models of eye trajectories and the ERFs. The DCM for pursuit was based on predictive coding and active inference, and predicts subjects' eye movements based on their (subjective) Bayesian beliefs about target (and eye) motion. The precisions of these hierarchical beliefs can be inferred from behavioural (pursuit) data. The DCM for MEG data used an established biophysical model of neuronal activity that includes parameters for the gain of superficial pyramidal cells, which is thought to encode precision at the neuronal level. Previous studies (using DCM of pursuit data) suggest that noisy target motion increases subjective precision at the sensory level: i.e., subjects attend more to the target's sensory attributes. We compared (noisy motion-induced) changes in the synaptic gain based on the modelling of MEG data to changes in subjective precision estimated using the pursuit data. We demonstrate that imprecise target motion increases the gain of superficial pyramidal cells in V1 (across subjects). Furthermore, increases in sensory precision - inferred by our behavioural DCM - correlate with the increase in gain in V1, across subjects. This is a step towards a fully integrated model of brain computations, cortical responses and behaviour that may provide a useful clinical tool in conditions like schizophrenia., (Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level - e.g., dynamic causal models - and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction., (Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The body underlies our sense of self, emotion, and agency. Signals arising from the skin convey warmth, social touch, and the physical characteristics of external stimuli. Surprising or unexpected tactile sensations can herald events of motivational salience, including imminent threats (e.g., an insect bite) and hedonic rewards (e.g., a caressing touch). Awareness of such events is thought to depend upon the hierarchical integration of body-related mismatch responses by the anterior insula. To investigate this possibility, we measured brain activity using functional magnetic resonance imaging, while healthy participants performed a roving tactile oddball task. Mass-univariate analysis demonstrated robust activations in limbic, somatosensory, and prefrontal cortical areas previously implicated in tactile deviancy, body awareness, and cognitive control. Dynamic Causal Modelling revealed that unexpected stimuli increased the strength of forward connections along a caudal to rostral hierarchy-projecting from thalamic and somatosensory regions towards insula, cingulate and prefrontal cortices. Within this ascending flow of sensory information, the AIC was the only region to show increased backwards connectivity to the somatosensory cortex, augmenting a reciprocal exchange of neuronal signals. Further, participants who rated stimulus changes as easier to detect showed stronger modulation of descending PFC to AIC connections by deviance. These results suggest that the AIC coordinates hierarchical processing of tactile prediction error. They are interpreted in support of an embodied predictive coding model where AIC mediated body awareness is involved in anchoring a global neuronal workspace., (Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Seizure activity in EEG recordings can persist for hours with seizure dynamics changing rapidly over time and space. To characterise the spatiotemporal evolution of seizure activity, large data sets often need to be analysed. Dynamic causal modelling (DCM) can be used to estimate the synaptic drivers of cortical dynamics during a seizure; however, the requisite (Bayesian) inversion procedure is computationally expensive. In this note, we describe a straightforward procedure, within the DCM framework, that provides efficient inversion of seizure activity measured with non-invasive and invasive physiological recordings; namely, EEG/ECoG. We describe the theoretical background behind a Bayesian belief updating scheme for DCM. The scheme is tested on simulated and empirical seizure activity (recorded both invasively and non-invasively) and compared with standard Bayesian inversion. We show that the Bayesian belief updating scheme provides similar estimates of time-varying synaptic parameters, compared to standard schemes, indicating no significant qualitative change in accuracy. The difference in variance explained was small (less than 5%). The updating method was substantially more efficient, taking approximately 5-10min compared to approximately 1-2h. Moreover, the setup of the model under the updating scheme allows for a clear specification of how neuronal variables fluctuate over separable timescales. This method now allows us to investigate the effect of fast (neuronal) activity on slow fluctuations in (synaptic) parameters, paving a way forward to understand how seizure activity is generated., (Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

In this technical note, we derive two MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) samplers for dynamic causal models (DCMs). Specifically, we use (a) Hamiltonian MCMC (HMC-E) where sampling is simulated using Hamilton's equation of motion and (b) Langevin Monte Carlo algorithm (LMC-R and LMC-E) that simulates the Langevin diffusion of samples using gradients either on a Euclidean (E) or on a Riemannian (R) manifold. While LMC-R requires minimal tuning, the implementation of HMC-E is heavily dependent on its tuning parameters. These parameters are therefore optimised by learning a Gaussian process model of the time-normalised sample correlation matrix. This allows one to formulate an objective function that balances tuning parameter exploration and exploitation, furnishing an intervention-free inference scheme. Using neural mass models (NMMs)-a class of biophysically motivated DCMs-we find that HMC-E is statistically more efficient than LMC-R (with a Riemannian metric); yet both gradient-based samplers are far superior to the random walk Metropolis algorithm, which proves inadequate to steer away from dynamical instability., (Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Clinical assessments of brain function rely upon visual inspection of electroencephalographic waveform abnormalities in tandem with functional magnetic resonance imaging. However, no current technology proffers in vivo assessments of activity at synapses, receptors and ion-channels, the basis of neuronal communication. Using dynamic causal modeling we compared electrophysiological responses from two patients with distinct monogenic ion channelopathies and a large cohort of healthy controls to demonstrate the feasibility of assaying synaptic-level channel communication non-invasively. Synaptic channel abnormality was identified in both patients (100% sensitivity) with assay specificity above 89%, furnishing estimates of neurotransmitter and voltage-gated ion throughput of sodium, calcium, chloride and potassium. This performance indicates a potential novel application as an adjunct for clinical assessments in neurological and psychiatric settings. More broadly, these findings indicate that biophysical models of synaptic channels can be estimated non-invasively, having important implications for advancing human neuroimaging to the level of non-invasive ion channel assays., (Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The functional MRI (fMRI) signal is an indirect measure of neuronal activity. In order to deconvolve the neuronal activity from the experimental fMRI data, biophysical generative models have been proposed describing the link between neuronal activity and the cerebral blood flow (the neurovascular coupling), and further the hemodynamic response and the BOLD signal equation. These generative models have been employed both for single brain area deconvolution and to infer effective connectivity in networks of multiple brain areas. In the current paper, we introduce a new fMRI model inspired by experimental observations about the physiological underpinnings of the BOLD signal and compare it with the generative models currently used in dynamic causal modeling (DCM), a widely used framework to study effective connectivity in the brain. We consider three fundamental aspects of such generative models for fMRI: (i) an adaptive two-state neuronal model that accounts for a wide repertoire of neuronal responses during and after stimulation; (ii) feedforward neurovascular coupling that links neuronal activity to blood flow; and (iii) a balloon model that can account for vascular uncoupling between the blood flow and the blood volume. Finally, we adjust the parameterization of the BOLD signal equation for different magnetic field strengths. This paper focuses on the form, motivation and phenomenology of DCMs for fMRI and the characteristics of the various models are demonstrated using simulations. These simulations emphasize a more accurate modeling of the transient BOLD responses - such as adaptive decreases to sustained inputs during stimulation and the post-stimulus undershoot. In addition, we demonstrate using experimental data that it is necessary to take into account both neuronal and vascular transients to accurately model the signal dynamics of fMRI data. By refining the models of the transient responses, we provide a more informed perspective on the underlying neuronal process and offer new ways of inferring changes in local neuronal activity and effective connectivity from fMRI., (Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

This paper considers communication in terms of inference about the behaviour of others (and our own behaviour). It is based on the premise that our sensations are largely generated by other agents like ourselves. This means, we are trying to infer how our sensations are caused by others, while they are trying to infer our behaviour: for example, in the dialogue between two speakers. We suggest that the infinite regress induced by modelling another agent - who is modelling you - can be finessed if you both possess the same model. In other words, the sensations caused by others and oneself are generated by the same process. This leads to a view of communication based upon a narrative that is shared by agents who are exchanging sensory signals. Crucially, this narrative transcends agency - and simply involves intermittently attending to and attenuating sensory input. Attending to sensations enables the shared narrative to predict the sensations generated by another (i.e. to listen), while attenuating sensory input enables one to articulate the narrative (i.e. to speak). This produces a reciprocal exchange of sensory signals that, formally, induces a generalised synchrony between internal (neuronal) brain states generating predictions in both agents. We develop the arguments behind this perspective, using an active (Bayesian) inference framework and offer some simulations (of birdsong) as proof of principle., (Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

We characterised the pathophysiology of seizure onset in terms of slow fluctuations in synaptic efficacy using EEG in patients with anti-N-methyl-d-aspartate receptor (NMDA-R) encephalitis. EEG recordings were obtained from two female patients with anti-NMDA-R encephalitis with recurrent partial seizures (ages 19 and 31). Focal electrographic seizure activity was localised using an empirical Bayes beamformer. The spectral density of reconstructed source activity was then characterised with dynamic causal modelling (DCM). Eight models were compared for each patient, to evaluate the relative contribution of changes in intrinsic (excitatory and inhibitory) connectivity and endogenous afferent input. Bayesian model comparison established a role for changes in both excitatory and inhibitory connectivity during seizure activity (in addition to changes in the exogenous input). Seizures in both patients were associated with a sequence of changes in inhibitory and excitatory connectivity; a transient increase in inhibitory connectivity followed by a transient increase in excitatory connectivity and a final peak of excitatory-inhibitory balance at seizure offset. These systematic fluctuations in excitatory and inhibitory gain may be characteristic of (anti NMDA-R encephalitis) seizures. We present these results as a case study and replication to motivate analyses of larger patient cohorts, to see whether our findings generalise and further characterise the mechanisms of seizure activity in anti-NMDA-R encephalitis., (Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.)