1. Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5°N.
- Author
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Matei, Daniela, Baehr, Johanna, Jungclaus, Johann H., Haak, Helmuth, Müller, Wolfgang A., and Marotzke, Jochem
- Subjects
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ATLANTIC meridional overturning circulation , *GEOSTROPHIC currents , *COMPUTER simulation of climatology , *OCEAN temperature , *OCEAN circulation , *OCEAN-atmosphere interaction , *PREDICTION models - Abstract
Attempts to predict changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have yielded little success to date. Here, we demonstrate predictability for monthly mean AMOC strength at 26.5°N for up to 4 years in advance. This AMOC predictive skill arises predominantly from the basin-wide upper-mid-ocean geostrophic transport, which in turn can be predicted because we have skill in predicting the upper-ocean zonal density difference. Ensemble forecasts initialized between January 2008 and January 2011 indicate a stable AMOC at 26.5°N unfit at least 2014, despite a brief wind-induced weakening in 2010. Because AMOC influences many aspects of climate, our results establish AMOC as an important potential carrier of climate predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2012
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