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To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2007.07.005 Byline: Chi-Yo Huang (a), Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng (b)(c) Keywords: Product life cycle; Product life time; Forecasting; Piecewise regression; Fuzzy regression; DRAM; Semiconductor Abstract: Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Industrial Education, National Taiwan Normal University, 162, He-Ping East Road, Section 1, Taipei 106, Taiwan (b) Department of Business Administration, Kainan University, No. 1 Kainan Road, Luchu, Taoyuan 338, Taiwan (c) Institute of Management of Technology, National Chiao-Tung University, 1001, Ta-Hsueh Road, Hsin-Chu, Taiwan Article History: Received 12 September 2006; Revised 28 July 2007; Accepted 30 July 2007

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2006.08.029 Byline: Tuan-Fang Fan (a)(b), Duen-Ren Liu (a), Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng (c)(d) Keywords: Rough sets; Fuzzy sets; Decision logic; Multicriteria decision analysis; Artificial intelligence Abstract: In this paper, we propose some decision logic languages for rule representation in rough set-based multicriteria analysis. The semantic models of these logics are data tables, each of which is comprised of a finite set of objects described by a finite set of criteria/attributes. The domains of the criteria may have ordinal properties expressing preference scales, while the domains of the attributes may not. The validity, support, and confidence of a rule are defined via its satisfaction in the data table. Author Affiliation: (a) Institute of Information Management, National Chiao-Tung University, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan (b) Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Penghu University, Penghu 880, Taiwan (c) Graduate Institute of Management of Technology, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan (d) Kainan University, Taoyuan 338, Taiwan Article History: Received 14 December 2004; Accepted 17 August 2006

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2006.01.020 Byline: Serafim Opricovic (a), Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng (b) Keywords: Multiple criteria analysis; Compromise; Extended VIKOR method Abstract: The VIKOR method was developed to solve MCDM problems with conflicting and noncommensurable (different units) criteria, assuming that compromising is acceptable for conflict resolution, the decision maker wants a solution that is the closest to the ideal, and the alternatives are evaluated according to all established criteria. This method focuses on ranking and selecting from a set of alternatives in the presence of conflicting criteria, and on proposing compromise solution (one or more). The VIKOR method is extended with a stability analysis determining the weight stability intervals and with trade-offs analysis. The extended VIKOR method is compared with three multicriteria decision making methods: TOPSIS, PROMETHEE, and ELECTRE. A numerical example illustrates an application of the VIKOR method, and the results by all four considered methods are compared. Author Affiliation: (a) Faculty of Civil Engineering, Bulevar revolucije 73, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia and Montenegro (b) National Chiao Tung University, Institute of Management of Technology, 1001 Ta-Hsueh Road, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan Article History: Received 4 March 2005; Accepted 9 January 2006

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2005.07.003 Byline: Tzy-Yuan Chou (a), Seng-cho T. Chou (a), Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng (b)(c) Keywords: Fuzzy theory; IS evaluation; IT evaluation; IT portfolio; Multi-criteria decision making Abstract: IT/IS represents a substantial financial investment for many organizations. Whether or not to invest in new IT/IS is, therefore, a difficult decision. Simply considering human resource cost saving criteria is not enough, especially when a corporation has had many information systems. What kind of criteria should we consider when we evaluate IT/IS? How can a new IT/IS project be evaluated in an easy, cost-effective, and collective manner? We need a tool that will help decision-makers evaluate potential new investment projects. Apart from evaluating the new project per se, its compatibility and ability to integrate with an existing IT portfolio must also be considered. Hence, we propose a new approach based on the fuzzy multi-criteria decision model (FMCDM), featuring a 2-stage evaluation process with 26 criteria for IT/IS investment. All stakeholders in a corporation can decide the relative weights they give to the criteria when they evaluate a new IT/IS project by using linguistic values. Experts can also use linguistic values to evaluate all candidates easily. Only an Excel worksheet is needed to obtain an evaluation result. It is cost-effective and efficient. We conduct a case study to show how this model can be used and discuss the results. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Information Management, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 106, Taiwan (b) Institute of Management of Technology, National Chiao Tung University, 1001, Ta-Hsueh Rd., Hsinchu 300, Taiwan (c) Department of Business Administration, Kainan University, No. 1, Kainan Road, Luchu, Toayuan County 338, Taiwan

The multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods VIKOR and TOPSIS were based on an aggregating function representating 'closeness to the ideal', which originated in the compromise programming method. A comparative analysis of the two methods is demonstrated with numerical example, showing their similarity and differences.

The difficulties experienced by Taipower in planning the purchase, transportation and allocation of coal are expressed as a fuzzy bicriteria multi-index transportation problem. The latter is characterized by multiple source points, multiple demand points, multiple ships and different types of coal. To solve it, an algorithm based on the reducing index technique and interactive linear programming is developed.

A case study of Taipei City, Taiwan, to analyze the multicriteria evaluation model in transportation system management (TSM) shows that expert opinions and judgments help formulate a successful consensus strategy. The three-phase model includes consensus elimination, non-dominated strategy evaluation and consensus ranking. The evaluation uses expert models such as the ELECTRE III to rank non-dominated strategies and the method of Cook and Seiford to obtain consensus ranking.

The production value of the mechanical industry in Taiwan was forecasted using fuzzy seasonal time series. A potential benefit of the study was providing enterprises with a method to conduct short-term predictions that will serve as an aid to accurate planning. The fuzzy seasonal time series method included interval models with interval parameters which makes the distribution of future value a possibility. The results of the application of the method showed that the method can be relied on to make good forecasts.

Abstract: Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) has been applied in many situations, such as marketing strategies, control systems, safety problems, developing the competencies of global managers and group decision making. It has been incorporated into other methods such as Analytical Network Process (ANP), Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), fuzzy set theory, etc., to vitalize these traditional methods and explore new applications for the hybrid methods. DEMATEL models the influences of components of a system with an initial direct relation matrix. Influences of components can ripple transitively to other components, which is modeled by raising the initial direct relation matrix to powers. The total influence is computed by summing up matrices of all powers based on the assumption that the matrix raising to the power of infinity would converge to zero. The current paper shows that raising the initial relation matrix to the power of infinity may not converge to zero and hence total influence may not converge. The current paper also shows that our revised DEMATEL guarantees that the initial direct-relation matrix to infinite power will converge to zero and the total influence can be obtained accordingly. The newly developed approach is illustrated with numerical examples. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Few studies in tourism and transport have discussed the connection service between metro systems with urban airports or proposed strategies to assist in improving performance for long-term development. The purpose of this study is to address this problem using the novel method of hybrid MCDM (multiple criteria decision-making), including DEMATEL (decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory), DANP (the DEMATEL-based analytic network process) and VIKOR, to examine the influential relationships among dimensions and criteria of the empirical case and to ultimately present the best improvement schemes, which are valuable for both practitioners and researchers and for those destinations attempted to integrate the urban transport with tourism development. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: When consumers purchase products, they will consider the brand first, because it indirectly leads consumers to associate the products with the quality, functions, and the design. Based on the smiling curve, it showed enhancing the marketing or R&D will create value-added to the products or brands. Thus, this study intended to use brand marketing to create brand value. However, there are many criteria among the strategies, and they are interrelated. Therefore, this study utilized the MCDM model combining DEMATEL with ANP and VIKOR methods to clarify the interrelated relationships of brand marketing and find the problems or gaps; then, evaluated the situation to reduce the gaps in order to achieve the aspired levels and rank the priorities in brand marketing strategies, we also evaluated the customer’s satisfaction of brand marketing by three electronic manufacturing companies in Taiwan. As the empirical results, value pricing is the most important factor, followed by consumer’s price perception and perceived quality while showed the highest satisfaction of brand marketing was in F2 company. The results of this paper will provide the enterprises with a reference for planning brand marketing. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Few studies have presented a holistic approach to evaluating complex national tourism policies, successfully quantified the dynamics at play, or proposed an improvement model. The corresponding purpose of this study is to address this problem, using the method of hybrid MCDM (multiple criteria decision-making) to examine the dependent relationships among various dimensions and criteria of tourism policies and, ultimately, to suggest an optimal improvement plan for Taiwan tourism policy. A decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) is employed to construct a network relationship map (NRM), which then is used to illustrate the influential network of the tourism policy improvement model. The DEMATEL-based analytic network process (DANP) and VIKOR are adopted to evaluate the weights and the gaps to the aspired level of implementation. The model is useful in identifying both an influential network and a priority sequence of dimensions/criteria related to tourism policies and, thus, is helpful to tourism policy management. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The balanced scorecard approach is an effective technique for performance evaluation. For more accurately reflecting the dependence and feedback problems of each factor in real world situations, here a new model is developed using a balanced scorecard approach for evaluating the performance of hot spring hotel. A DANP hybrid MCDM model is adopted to solve the dependence and feedback problems, while establishing a performance evaluation and relationship model. An empirical case study is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid MCDM model. Based on this study, the perspective between ‘learning and growth’, ‘enterprise''s internal processes’, and ‘customer’, all aim for solid financial performance as the ultimate goal, and report a positive influence. This effective performance evaluation model developed by applying the hybrid MCDM enables business managers to understand the appropriate actions and achieve a competitive advantage. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The core objective of the Nine-Year Integrated Curriculum for primary schools is to “enable students to demonstrate their talents instead of just scoring high on exams” around the world. The determining factor in education reform is to declare the competence indicators of necessary educational behavior in primary and junior high school. In the reform process, for all domains, the enriched rate of competence indicators for educational materials and methods is very meaningful. Because educational materials and methods in different domains have their own style, we should evaluate these teaching materials separately. Thus, in this research we propose a novel MCDM (Multiple Criteria Decision Making) framework for evaluating, comparing, and improving the effectiveness of competence indicators in the various publications for teaching materials in primary school based on different viewpoints. The ANP (Analysis Network Process) weights are based on the DEMATEL technique with the MCDM method for resolving the problems of dependence and feedback among criteria. Then, a VIKOR technique with ANP weights is proposed for addressing and reducing the performance gaps for each criterion, thus hopefully improving, re-configuring and selecting the aspired Intelligent Assessment Systems (IAS) for teaching materials. An empirical study of Mandarin Chinese based on this system design of three publishers is illustrated to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results can improve the efficiency and quality of the authored Mandarin Chinese teaching materials and may extend to other Learning Areas. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: As the IC (integrated circuit) industry migrates to the System-on-Chip (SOC) era, the SOC design service industry is emerging. Meanwhile, in the past decade, the emergence of Internet has changed the high technology marketing approaches while e-commerce has already become one of the most efficient marketing channels. Thus, most leading SOC design service firms tried to leverage novel e-commerce business models to provide better services including online silicon intellectual property (SIP) sourcing, transactions, integration, etc. to assist customers in enhancing their innovation competences to shorten their time to market and thus, time to money. However, defining appropriate e-business models for commercializing new SIPs or SOC design services is not easy for both aspects of technology as well as business development. On one hand, from the aspect of technology, the technical site R&D or production managers are familiar with SOC technologies while do not really understand the needs of customers’ over the Internet. On the other hand, from the aspect of business development, the sales or marketing managers may be familiar with online customers’ needs, wants as well as demands while are unfamiliar to SOC technology developments. To overcome the above mentioned problems, an appropriate e-business model definition framework can overcome this cognitive gap and maximize the value-added of online SOC design services. In this paper, a novel analytic framework based on the concept of design service customers’ competence set expansions by leveraging high technology service firms’ capabilities and resources as well as novel multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques, will be proposed. The framework being proposed can be leveraged by the design service firms to define an appropriate e-business model for possible SIP or design service businesses. Based on the proposed MCDM framework, an empirical study of an SIP commercialization e-business model definition inside an SIP Mall, an SIP e-commerce mechanism being operated by a SOC design service firm, will be provided for verifying the effectiveness of this novel analytic framework. The feasibility of the proposed framework in the real world can be verified by the empirical study. In the future, the novel MCDM framework can be applied to novel e-business model definitions in the SOC design service or other high technology industries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]