1. The impact of implementing the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on hospitalizations for pneumonia among children.
- Author
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de Melo Araujo AC, da Silva Aragão J, de Souza WV, Rodrigues LC, and de Barros Miranda-Filho D
- Subjects
- Humans, Child, Infant, Pneumococcal Vaccines therapeutic use, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Hospitalization, Vaccines, Conjugate therapeutic use, Pneumonia epidemiology, Pneumonia prevention & control, Pneumococcal Infections epidemiology, Pneumococcal Infections prevention & control, Pneumonia, Pneumococcal epidemiology, Pneumonia, Pneumococcal prevention & control
- Abstract
Pneumonia is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in children, with pneumococcus as the main etiologic agent. In Brazil, the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-10) was introduced into the childhood immunization schedule in 2010. The aim of this study was to assess the impact caused by implementing PCV-10 on the hospitalizations of children with pneumonia, between 2005 and 2015, in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. An ecological time series study and a forecasting analysis were conducted. A comparison was made between the hospitalizations of children aged between seven months and four years due to pneumonia in the Brazilian Unified Health System, in the 5 years before (2005-2009) and after (2011-2015) implementation of PCV-10. Descriptive analysis included absolute and relative values, means and rates of hospitalization. The chi-square test was used to compare the annual incidence of hospitalizations and the t-Student test to compare the five-year mean values. For the temporal modeling of hospitalizations, an autoregressive integrated moving average was used, adjusted with seasonal-SARIMA (Box-Jenkins methodology), with a prediction of the monthly number of hospitalizations for 2011-2015. The predicted and observed values for 2011-2015 were then compared. The number of hospitalizations after implementing PCV-10 was reduced by 24.5 %. The monthly average of hospitalizations dropped from 681 (2005-2009) to 514 (2011-2015). The hospitalization rate dropped from 56.1 per thousand live births in the five-year period prior to PCV-10 to 43.4 in the following five-year period (a 22.7% reduction). Comparing the values predicted by the SARIMA model for a scenario without PCV-10 in the second five-year period, with those reported after implementing PCV-10, the estimated number of prevented hospitalizations was 8,682 in the five years following the introduction of the vaccine. In conclusion, in the five years following implementation of PCV-10, hospitalizations of children with pneumonia in Pernambuco decrease by 22%., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2023
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