1. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps
- Author
-
Jörn Behrens, Finn Løvholt, Fatemeh Jalayer, Stefano Lorito, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mathilde Sørensen, Stephane Abadie, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Iñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Andrey Babeyko, Marco Baiguera, Roberto Basili, Stefano Belliazzi, Anita Grezio, Kendra Johnson, Shane Murphy, Raphaël Paris, Irina Rafliana, Raffaele De Risi, Tiziana Rossetto, Jacopo Selva, Matteo Taroni, Marta Del Zoppo, Alberto Armigliato, Vladimír Bureš, Pavel Cech, Claudia Cecioni, Paul Christodoulides, Gareth Davies, Frédéric Dias, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Mauricio González, Maria Gritsevich, Serge Guillas, Carl Bonnevie Harbitz, Utku Kânoǧlu, Jorge Macías, Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos, Jascha Polet, Fabrizio Romano, Amos Salamon, Antonio Scala, Mislav Stepinac, David R. Tappin, Hong Kie Thio, Roberto Tonini, Ioanna Triantafyllou, Thomas Ulrich, Elisa Varini, Manuela Volpe, Eduardo Vyhmeister, Department of Mathematics/CEN, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), University of Naples Federico II, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Roma (INGV), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, ERN Internacional, Mexico City, Centre Internacional de Mètodes Numèrics en Enginyeria (CIMNE), University of Bergen (UiB), Laboratoire des Sciences de l'Ingénieur Appliquées à la Mécanique et au génie Electrique (SIAME), Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour (UPPA), IHCantabria - Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de La Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Department Geodesy and Remote Sensing, University College of London [London] (UCL), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Bologna (INGV), GEM Foundation, Pavia, Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans (LMV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement et la société-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)-Observatoire de Physique du Globe de Clermont-Ferrand (OPGC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA), German Development Institute/Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Bonn, Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), University of Bristol [Bristol], Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna (UNIBO), University of Hradec Králové, Università degli Studi Roma Tre, Cyprus University of Technology, Geoscience Australia, Canberra, ACT, University College Dublin [Dublin] (UCD), Universidad de Málaga [Málaga] = University of Málaga [Málaga], Finnish Geospatial Research Institute (FGI), Masala, University of Helsinki, Institute of Physics and Technology, Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg, Department of Engineering Sciences, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Athens, California State Polytechnic University [Pomona] (CAL POLY POMONA), Geological Survey of Israel (GSI), Geological Survey of Israel, University of Zagreb, British Geological Survey (BGS), AECOM, Department of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München, C.N.R. - Institute for Applied Mathematics and Information Technologies, Milano, Insight Research Centre, University College Cork, University of Naples Federico II = Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II, Università degli Studi Roma Tre = Roma Tre University (ROMA TRE), Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA), Department of Physics, Jörn Behrens, Finn Løvholt, Fatemeh Jalayer, Stefano Lorito, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mathilde Sørensen, Stephane Abadie, Ignacio Aguirre-Ayerbe, Iñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Andrey Babeyko, Marco Baiguera, Roberto Basili, Stefano Belliazzi, Anita Grezio, Kendra Johnson, Shane Murphy, Raphaël Paris, Irina Rafliana, Raffaele De Risi, Tiziana Rossetto, Jacopo Selva, Matteo Taroni, Marta Del Zoppo, Alberto Armigliato, Vladimír Bureš, Pavel Cech, Claudia Cecioni, Paul Christodoulides, Gareth Davies, Frédéric Dias, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Mauricio González, Maria Gritsevich, Serge Guillas, Carl Bonnevie Harbitz, Utku Kânoǧlu, Jorge Macías, Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos, Jascha Polet, Fabrizio Romano, Amos Salamon, Antonio Scala, Mislav Stepinac, David R. Tappin, Hong Kie Thio, Roberto Tonini, Ioanna Triantafyllou, Thomas Ulrich, Elisa Varini, Manuela Volpe, Eduardo Vyhmeister, Behrens, J., Lovholt, F., Jalayer, F., Lorito, S., Salgado-Galvez, M. A., Sorensen, M., Abadie, S., Aguirre-Ayerbe, I., Aniel-Quiroga, I., Babeyko, A., Baiguera, M., Basili, R., Belliazzi, S., Grezio, A., Johnson, K., Murphy, S., Paris, R., Rafliana, I., De Risi, R., Rossetto, T., Selva, J., Taroni, M., Del Zoppo, M., Armigliato, A., Bures, V., Cech, P., Cecioni, C., Christodoulides, P., Davies, G., Dias, F., Bayraktar, H. B., Gonzalez, M., Gritsevich, M., Guillas, S., Harbitz, C. B., Kanoglu, U., Macias, J., Papadopoulos, G. A., Polet, J., Romano, F., Salamon, A., Scala, A., Stepinac, M., Tappin, D. R., Thio, H. K., Tonini, R., Triantafyllou, I., Ulrich, T., Varini, E., Volpe, M., Vyhmeister, E., and Universidad de Cantabria
- Subjects
Risk ,1171 Geosciences ,Risk analysis ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Computer science ,hazard ,Science ,SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS ,SCALING RELATIONS ,010502 geochemistry & geophysics ,01 natural sciences ,tsunami ,probabilistic method ,risk ,research gap ,Probabilistic method ,[SDU.STU.VO]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Volcanology ,Natural disaster ,STRONG GROUND MOTION ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,tsunami, probabilistic method, hazard, risk, research gap ,Tsunami ,Probabilistic risk assessment ,SUBDUCTION-ZONE EARTHQUAKES ,Probabilistic logic ,Maturity (finance) ,Hazard ,TRIANGULAR DISLOCATION ,SOCIAL VULNERABILITY ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,LARGE SUBMARINE LANDSLIDES ,Tsunami hazard ,FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS ,2011 TOHOKU ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,Research gap ,Earth and Related Environmental Sciences ,Natural Sciences ,SHEAR-BAND PROPAGATION - Abstract
Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach. © Copyright © 2021 Behrens, Løvholt, Jalayer, Lorito, Salgado-Gálvez, Sørensen, Abadie, Aguirre-Ayerbe, Aniel-Quiroga, Babeyko, Baiguera, Basili, Belliazzi, Grezio, Johnson, Murphy, Paris, Rafliana, De Risi, Rossetto, Selva, Taroni, Del Zoppo, Armigliato, Bureš, Cech, Cecioni, Christodoulides, Davies, Dias, Bayraktar, González, Gritsevich, Guillas, Harbitz, Kânoǧlu, Macías, Papadopoulos, Polet, Romano, Salamon, Scala, Stepinac, Tappin, Thio, Tonini, Triantafyllou, Ulrich, Varini, Volpe and Vyhmeister. This article is based upon work from COST Action CA18109 AGITHAR, supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). VB and PC obtained support through the VES20 Inter-Cost LTC 20020 project. MS-G obtained support through the Severo Ochoa Centers of Excellence Program (Ref. CEX 2018–000797-S). TU acknowledges funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (ChEESE project, Grant Agreement No. 823844).
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF