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This paper identifies and examines a number of long-term trends reshaping the security environment in the Taiwan Strait in ways that might produce a military conflict. Focusing on long-term trends is a useful analytical approach that highlights the possibility that political leaders may knowingly take risky actions in response to perceptions that adverse trends are eroding their security. Taiwan?s democratic transition and growing sense of a separate Taiwan identity have changed the political considerations governing Taiwan?s policy toward the mainland. China worries about growing pro-independence sentiment in Taiwan, but lacks the political tools to build support for unification. As a result, China has sought to deter movement toward Taiwan independence while developing the military capabilities to deter U.S. intervention in support of Taiwan. China?s goal is to force the United States to choose between continuing its support for Taiwan or sacrificing Chinese cooperation on economic and security issues. The perceived Chinese military threat to Taiwan has caused the United States to increase its support for Taiwan, included increased security cooperation. These trends are gradually undercutting the basis for the ?one China? framework that has served U.S. interests effectively for the past thirty years. The paper examines these long-term trends and assesses their implications for the stability of the security environment in the Taiwan Strait. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of economic sanctions in Taiwan's decision to reverse its nuclear weapons efforts. Sanctions have long been derided as an ineffective tool of foreign policy, particularly in "high politics" issues such as nuclear weapons programs. Contrary to the prevalent view, in this paper I demonstrate that economic sanctions led to nuclear reversal in Taiwan through the "compellence" mechanism. Drawing on the literature on coercive diplomacy, the paper concludes that Taiwan's dependence on the United States for its very survival facilitated successful US coercion to reverse its nuclear weapons program. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's rise as an economic and political power constitutes both an opportunity to promote regional stability as well as a threat to derail regional stability in Asia. One of the major factors effecting China's international role in the coming years will be the management of the so-called Taiwan question. Taiwan's unresolved future, as well as Sino-Japanese relations will, in turn, become increasingly significant issues within Chinese domestic politics. At present, China is doing its best to reassure its neighbors of its peaceful rise to the role of regional power. China wants to be seen as the pragmatic promoter of multilateralism to ensure regional stability, opposed to the China of previous decades, which created instability in numerous Southeast Asian countries by pursuing ideological objectives. On the other hand, when dealing with what Beijing calls a domestic affair, the so-called Taiwan question, China's stance threatens to destabilize the region, a cause of great concern throughout Asia. Increasingly, as Chinese society becomes more pluralistic, the leaders of China could conceivably come under intense pressure from factions within several domestic constituencies to adopt an even tougher stance toward Taiwan, to ensure that the goal of reunification is not nullified forever. Moreover, in the event of economic stagnation, a domestic crisis could propel the Chinese leaders to force a settlement in the Taiwan Strait in an attempt to divert public opinion away from problems at home. This paper will focus on Chinese policies in Asia, describing the development of these policies as they become more accommodating, on the one hand, while simultaneously, due to domestic constraints, more uncompromising and hard-line in the Taiwan Strait and vis-à-vis Japan. The paper will attempt to analyze the effect that the diversification of Chinese politics as well as the emphasis on China's century of humiliation have on China's dual-track Asia policy and its effects on stability in Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Working mainly from historical and sociological version of new institutionalism (NI) divergent from the mainstream IR regime theory and secondarily in line with Gramsci?s idea of hegemony, this paper explores the global dominance of the "one China" order and its discontents. It is argued that the hegemonic ?one China? order in favor of Beijing?s interest, created in a specific historical condition, has been established through the extensive and intensive institutionalization of rules concerned in both fundamental level and detailed policy realms. It is demonstrated that the ?one China? institution functions as a filter that forecloses other possibilities of historical development which were relatively open in the past, that limits Taiwan’s freedom of policy action and marginalize its diplomatic space, and that legitimates the PRC’s action in interfering in Taiwan’s international relations. Meanwhile, Beijing’s interests are embedded and entrenched in the "one China" hegemonic order. Moreover, while the institution shape agents’ organization of interests in a divergent way, its persistence hinges upon continuing practices and reproduction by the PRC or countries concerned. Finally, the state of the "one China" institutionalization was argued to be more influential than its predecessor in light of the coherence of its cultural-cognitive, normative and regulative elements and their consolidation within the hands of the PRC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why has the United States remained interested in Taiwan’s security in the post-Cold War era? Recent critiques of the American military presence in East Asia maintain that Washington developed an imperial mindset with respect to the region during the Cold War, a perspective that sustained interest in forward deployment following the Soviet Union’s demise. As an American Cold War ally, Taiwan was naturally included in this neo-imperial project. In this paper, I offer an alternative view, focusing on two critical episodes in the history of U.S.-Taiwan relations: the Sino-American normalization negotiations in the late 1970s and the confrontation over Taiwan in the mid-1990s. Drawing upon historical materials as well as interviews with key U.S. officials from the Carter and Clinton administrations, I argue that the U.S. has refused to abandon Taiwan as a result of interests created through several decades of close interaction. Moreover, rather than sustaining U.S. hegemony in East Asia, the American relationship with Taiwan has seriously complicated Washington’s pursuit of broader strategic goals in the region. Accordingly, notwithstanding recent interest in American empire among neo-conservatives, the persistence of the U.S. commitment to Taiwan reflects the long history of close association more than neo-imperial ambitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the primacy of unification in China's strategic thinking. Sinocentric wisdom upholds China's "great unity." Unification is regarded as the guarantor of stability and prosperity while division the recipe for chaos and sufferings. I highlight that the Chinese term for China, zhongguo, originally meant "central states" in plurality. I develop a rigorous definition of unification and show that zhongguo was more often divided than unified. I also demonstrate that the drive to achieve and maintain unification produced wars of annihilation, wars of repression, and wars of conquest. Moreover, unification did not necessarily contribute to human welfare. Singular zhongguo tended to repress dissent, stifle trade, and dominate its neighbors. In contrast, plural zhongguo was favorable to the development of state-society bargains, commercial activities, and diplomatic relations. Paradoxically, it was unification that brought about "great disorder under heaven," and division that had the potential to realize "great unity under heaven." This contrast is more pronounced if we extend the analysis from the Chinese heartland to the periphery. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mainstream discourse on cross-strait relations tends to reproduce the "crisis" than transform it. Analysts in Taiwan are complicit by loyally following US concepts, prescriptions, and strategies for the region. Some, however, are beginning to contest this traditional subjugation of Taiwan's interests and identity to US and Chinese hegemony. Nonetheless, they still abide by the US paradigm of triangular relations. This paper notes a third, emerging discourse that reframes US-China-Taiwan relations through a postcolonial understanding of sovereignty, cross-strait relations, and Taiwanese subjectivity. We characterize these three options, in reverse order, in Hirschman's terms of "exit," "voice, and "loyalty." But we amend these with Ling's differentiation of "formal" and "substantive" mimicry for "loyalty" and "voice," respectively. Both reflect conditions of postcolonial hybridity that mature, eventually, into a paradigmatic breakthrough or "exit." ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How best to avoid a possible crisis over Taiwan, which might escalate into the most unwanted war of this century? Traditional studies of Taiwan crises focus mainly on a rational choice theory of deterrence. However, they fail to account for risk-taking behavior that seems irrational but can be well explained by prospect theory. This paper employs prospect theory to explain China's different policies toward Taiwan under Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. By using regime security as a reference point to define the domains of action, we suggest that Chinese leaders are more likely to use military coercion, a more risky policy, against Taiwan's pro-independence movements when they are in a domain of losses, i.e., when their regime security faces serious domestic and international challenges. On the contrary, Chinese leaders are more likely to employ political pressure, a less risky policy, to oppose Taiwan's pro-independence forces, if their decision making takes place in a domain of gains, i.e., when their regime security is insured. We conclude that maintaining a good U.S.-China relationship is the best strategy for the United States to avoid military crises in the Taiwan Strait. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes U.S. policy toward China and Taiwan. I begin with an examination of Cold War foreign policy across the various presidential administrations. I then move to an examination of post-Cold War foreign policy concentrating on the Clinton and Bush presidencies. I focus on comparing various administration approaches to the Taiwan crisis and how and why policies varied within and between administrations. I discuss the numerous international and domestic factors that have contributed to U.S. policy toward Taiwan and China. Throughout, I attempt to capture the competing interests involved and how these actors and events have complicated both foreign policy processes and outcomes. I conclude with a discussion of policy implications for the present and future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2004 Presidential and Legislative Elections in Taiwan have affected Taiwan's political, economic and social development as well as Taiwan's national security and the future trend of the cross-strait relations. More importantly, the election outcome involves both the issue of military balance between the two sides and mutual political interactions, economic and trade exchanges, and social impacts across the Strait. Indeed, the cross-strait issues involve the sophisticate, strategic triangular relationship among the United States, the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan, as well as U. S. policy toward Taiwan and vice versa. Based on the outcome of the 2004 presidential and legislative elections, this paper attempts to explore the internal political rearrangements, possible orientation of the new public opinions in Taiwan, and the election impacts on Taiwan's policies towards PRC and the cross-strait relations. In fact, the passage of the first Referendum Act in Taiwan has certainly opened up possible referendum channels for deciding and executing critical political policies on Taiwan and cross-strait relationships such as drafting a new constitution and establishing a new nation, which intensifies PRC's discontent and worries. Despite President Chen's 2004 reelection, his plans to "retitle Taiwan," "draft a new constitution" and "build a new nation" have encountered setbacks due to lacking of legislative majority support. However, Chen's plan to implement a new constitution in 2008 stays firm. Under the conflicting standoffs between Taiwan's "amending or drafting the Constitution" and PRC's "Anti-Secession Law," it is anticipated that the future cross-strait relations will entail significant variations in a harsh atmosphere even though the two sides have, for the first time in 56 years, brought about two-way direct charter flights for the 2005 Chinese New Year showing that the political tension has not deterred a closer and closer economic, social and cultural exchanges across the Strait. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of the United States in Sino-Japanese relations since the end of World War II. Special emphasis is placed on three major debates between China and Japan where the American role appears to have been critical: (1) the history issue; (2) the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute; and (3) the Taiwan issue. The central argument is that a series of institutional innovations, in Sino-Japanese relations introduced by the United States after the end of World War II, reinforced the U.S. alliance with Japan, and often rather indirectly accounts for the continuing tense relations between China and Japan. These developments, including the Tokyo War Crime Trials, the San Francisco Peace Treaty in 1951, the Okinawa reversion treaty in 1971, and the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, have had a major influence on Sino-Japanese relations that endures today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Being one of the international "hot spot", the cross-strait relation could not only influence the future of China, but the stability of East Asia area and even the global system. To majority of researchers, what they pay the main attention should not be the past of the cross-strait relations, that is, why Mainland and Taiwan begin to fight each other, but how could they solve these problems in the future. From the perspective of liberalists, they think the so-called "Democratic Peace" or "Peaceful Transformation" maybe the key answers, it means when Mainland China finish the economic reforms and therefore lead to the political transformation, the problem of cross-strait relations would be solved in the same time. Nonetheless, to the realists who believe the concept of "Power Politics", before we construct an appropriate international regime to deal the conflict effectively, they are afraid that the cross-strait relations should be decided by power contrast between Mainland and Taiwan. In this paper, I will review the standpoint of liberalism and realism first, and then try to analyze and realize which one would be the possible choice to resolve the deadlock of cross-strait relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a conference paper titled "Policy Adaptability to Great Power Leadership: Taiwan's Foreign Policy Discourse and Room for Policy Change" presented at the "International Studies Association 46th Annual Convention" in Honolulu, Hawaii. It offers a brief discussion of the historical background for Taiwan's foreign policy adaption, trends in the Public Policy Analysis (PPA) literature, and the development and transformation of policy argumentation.

The article presents the conference paper titled "Modeling Cross-Strait Relations and Taiwan's Linkage Politics: Foreign Policy Implications for China-Taiwan-U.S. Relations" prepared for presentation at the "International Studies Association 2005 Annual Convention" in Honolulu, Hawaii. It emphasizes that China and the U.S. should avoid getting connected into any issues related to the Taiwan election.

The article presents the conference paper "Environmental Governance for Peace? Environmental Peacemaking on Cases of China and Taiwan" that was prepared for 2005 ISA Convention. It discusses the three traditional peacemaking approaches, namely the hegemonic leadership/ intervention, confidence-building measures (CBM) and interdependence. It examines the factors on how environmental peacemaking will work between China and Taiwan.

The dominant issue in Taiwan's politics concerns the island's relationship with China. Since 1949, Taiwan has resisted the control of the government on the mainland, tranforming itself into a more economically advanced and politically democratic society than the one on the mainland. But whether or not it should become an independent nation or seek to rejoin the mainland is the central issue cleavage in Taiwan's politics. In this paper, I will examine the role of this issue in Taiwan's politics by going beyond traditional measures of attitudes on this question to include consideration of conditional preferences toward national identity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Asia occupies a growing role in Chinese security policy. However, an examination of China?s Central Asian policies reveals that they are essentially external projections of Beijing?s vital interest of internal security in neighboring Xinjiang. Accordingly this article examines Xinjiang?s importance for China?s overall security policies. Through this examination it becomes clear that the Xinjiang problem very much resembles that of other discontented provinces within a multinational state with a continuing imperial vocation. Therefore China?s problems in Xinjiang will continue and have important repercussions for its domestic and foreign policies , and other key issues like Taiwan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Study will determine the external and internal influences on the Eisenhower adminstration in its making of U.S. policy toward Tibet. Using the Kegley-Wittkopf model, research will focus on foreign influence from external sources such as China, India, Taiwan and the Tibetans themselves. Internally, the study will determine which governmental, societal, role and individual sources influenced Eisenhower in determining policy outcomes. It is hoped that the study will further illuminate U.S. foreign policy deliberations and implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Broadly speaking, the research project focuses on the relationship between economics and national security; specifically how states can successfully use economic power to achieve their security objectives. This paper examines the use of private sector actors to achieve national foreign policy objectives in the context of the Taiwan-China FDI relationship from 1987-2004. The case identifies a framework for analyzing the factors driving private sector behavior. The paper argues that states seeking to use economics to pursue their strategic goals begin by fostering economic interaction then leveraging the security externalities generated by the behavior of private sector actors. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the formation and evolution of the worldview of the Republic of China (Taiwan), whose government is being controlled by the party favoring Taiwan independence and denying the Chinese root of its past. This paper explores the formation of the ruling party's worldview, and accesses the transformation of such a worldview since May 2001. This paper indicates that there is a dual development in Taiwan's worldview: "realist" in security and "pluralist" in economics (and the former seems to win over the latter in practice). In the last section how Taiwan adjusted and carried out its East Asia foreign policy through the lens of worldviews is presented. It will be risky if Taiwan continues to conduct its foreign policy under such a seemingly dyadic worldview. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The episode of Chen Shui-bian transit diplomacy bypassing the United States and his earlier decision to put the National Unification Council and Guideline into abeyance in 2006 had put Beijing-Taipei-Washington relationship into serious tests. It remains to be seen if Taipei's most recent steps of renaming some state-owned enterprises may escalate into tensions as before. While Chen's New Year address and state visit to Nicaragua via US homeland in 2007 caused little problem for the State Department, the PRC's discontent remained evident. It was against this backdrop that the paper was proposed.This paper examined the role the US played in the institutionalization of the status quo across the Strait from a sociological new institutionalist perspective. My research questions are: In what way did the United States help institutionalize the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait? And in the process, how did the US act through "cross-Strait peaceful co-development" institution to shape the interest or identity of Beijing and Taipei?It was maintained that there existed an ongoing institutionalization process through which the US constructed the status quo that was supported with varying degree by Beijing and Taipei. The three joint communiqués and the TRA could be seen as setting the first stage of institutionalization through formal codification which emphasized the peaceful process in any attempt for final resolution by both sides. Since the late 1990s, the construction and reproduction of the CSPCD institution by the Americans, which generally follows a pattern of "neither use of force nor de jure independence," has been undertaken primarily through policy statements or actions. They normally uphold such core values as "prosperity," "stability" or "peace," and help sustain the regulative, normative or cognitive elements of the CSPCD institution. The main purpose is to shape the policy discourses, preferences, interests or identity of Beijing and Taipei. It was also argued that although the detailed record of what the institution has achieved was certainly mixed, there appears to be an overall tendency for Beijing and Taipei not to incessantly challenge the status quo. As such, it might be concluded that the institutionalization of status quo was considerably effective, though not completely successful. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper focuses on Chinese foreign policies towards Taiwan, Japan and the Korean peninsula and the consequences of these policies for Asia-Pacific security. Northeast Asia is a strong-hold of the US alliance system and China's near abroad, thus affecting China's influence on global security. If China cannot accommodate the region into its overall foreign policy strategy, its suggestions for a post-Cold War security order are likely to appear unconvincing to the international community. The paper emphasizes the weaknesses inherent in China's contemporary foreign policy strategy, thereby pointing to the possibility that China might fall into the rank of secondary powers. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the One Country Two Systems concept, China, keeping its socialist system (with Chinese characteristics), allows Hong Kong?s capitalistic system and way of life to continue. The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) is to exercise a ?high degree of autonomy?, with ?fifty years no change?. Deng Xiaoping, China?s paramount leader, who heralded China?s opening to the world in 1979, held that this could be a model to resolve international relations problems left over by history. In early 2005, HK once again topped the Heritage Foundation?s annual index of economic freedom, for the eleventh year. Yet HKSAR has seen tensions, with mass demonstrations. The State Department?s Country Report on Human Rights Practices ? 2004 suggested it ?has been tested severely this year?. And Amnesty International?s 2005 Report noted ?a mainland ruling in April restricting Hong Kong?s freedom to push ahead with political reform heightened concerns about an erosion of human rights in Hong Kong.? Clearly the 1C2S concept as practised in HK is under challenge. It raises the question: has China managed HK?s return well or not? The nine years of experience offers a glimpse into China?s foreign policy and how HK fits into China?s scheme of things as a rising global power. Much as China guards jealously its sovereignty over HK and fears HK is being used as a base of subversion by foreign interests, notably the United States, HK is a matter of international concern. Since HK has been running an open economy, and as China is increasingly integrated into the international community, the interactions among the three levels ? the sub-state actor, the sovereign and the international community ? present opportunities as well as dilemmas. Specifically, the paper seeks to elucidate the origins of the 1C2S concept, to examine its application in HK thus far, and to identify the factors affecting its success (or failure). In fact, the 1C2S concept was designed in the first instance by China to re-unify the ?renegade? province of Taiwan. HK is supposed to demonstrate to Taiwan that all would be well under Chinese sovereignty. Yet, President Chen Siu-bian categorically stated that Taiwan is not HK. Beijing?s passage of the anti-succession law has rattled cross-straits relations, yet the visits by Lien and Soong, the opposition leaders, to the Mainland represented a class united front play of Beijing to isolate Chen and raised hope for some kind of accommodation between Taiwan and the Mainland. The paper will conclude with a discussion on the implications of the HK experience for Taiwan. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces the basic features of the Cross-Strait Interactions Databank (CSID) and reports a number of findings of a preliminary analysis of these event data. The CSID data set was recently created by the present author and a group of gradu ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The linkage between domestic and international determinants of foreign policy has long been a widely debated topic in the field of international relations, and foreign policy analysis in particular. The paper takes a unique approach to examine the domestic vs. international determinants of foreign policy by looking at the empirical evidence for the case of China and Taiwan. Findings suggest that, from China’s perspective, Taiwan’s domestic political changes do have significant influence on China’s decision making towards Taiwan. Although such changes may have been caused by Taiwan’s internal democratization, China is not directly reacting to Taiwan’s democratization per se; rather it is reacting to policy changes as a result of Taiwan’s internal democratic changes. Moreover, China’s policy towards Taiwan does not seem to be directly linked to China’s internal power politics. Rather, Taiwan’s policy toward China and Taiwan’s internal politics seem to be playing a more important role in determining China’s Taiwan policy. From Taiwan’s perspective, however, democratization has significantly influenced Taiwan’s behavior towards China. Cross-Strait decisions from both sides are significantly related to Taiwan’s internal relations. Therefore, for China’s Taiwan policy, evidence supports international or external determinants of foreign policy; whereas for Taiwan’s China policy, evidence supports domestic or internal determinants of foreign policy. A direct speculation is that regime type matters in what kind of factors matter more for states’ foreign policy. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite of the fact that China and Japan are becomingthe biggest trade partner with each other in recent years, politicalrelations between both countries have deteriorated. Many people in Chinastill concern over potential Japanese military resurgence, while more andmore people in Japan worry about China's military modernization and growingnationalism. The tension is unlikely to improve in the near future.The role of Taiwan in this China-Japan dispute is worth attention. WhileTaiwan has enjoyed de facto independence since 1949, it is still regarded byChinese leaders as a renegade province, and the recovery of the island wasconsidered in China as the sacred and ultimate goal. In recent years, Taiwanhas increasingly attempted to act as a truly independent state, adevelopment that could be attributed to political democratization on theisland since the late 1980s. The question is whether the leaders in Taiwanwill continue to push the envelope to a point short of de jure independencethat will be intolerable to the leaders in Beijing. On the other hand, bothTaiwan and Japan have shown strong intention in improving politicalrelations between both sides. Creation of a Japan-Taiwan alliance isbecoming a popular view in Taiwan's strategic circle, and Japanese publichave shown more sympathy to Taiwan's international isolation. Japanesegovernment even adjusted its policy toward the island state by including theTaiwan Strait into the sphere of concern in Japan-US Security Treaty. Thesedevelopments have been unthinkable in the past, because both China and Japanhave committed to the One China policy and because the Taiwan issueused to be excluded from China-Japan relations.This paper will examine the Taiwanese perspective of China-Japan relations.The author will outline the developments of Taiwan-Japan relations, identifythe strategies Taiwanese government have utilized to strengthen therelations with Japan, and to assess the Taiwan factor in future Japan-Chinarelations. In addition to analyses of secondary data, the author will alsointerview strategic scholars and even government officials to gain firsthand information. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite of the fact that China and Japan are becoming the biggest trade partner with each other in recent years, political relations between both countries have deteriorated. Many people in China still concern over potential Japanese military resurgence, while more and more people in Japan worry about China?s military modernization and growing nationalism. The tension is unlikely to improve in the near future.The role of Taiwan in this China-Japan dispute is worth attention. While Taiwan has enjoyed de facto independence since 1949, it is still regarded by Chinese leaders as a renegade province, and the recovery of the island was considered in China as the sacred and ultimate goal. In recent years, Taiwan has increasingly attempted to act as a truly independent state, a development that could be attributed to political democratization on the island since the late 1980s. The question is whether the leaders in Taiwan will continue to push the envelope to a point short of de jure independence that will be intolerable to the leaders in Beijing. On the other hand, both Taiwan and Japan have shown strong intention in improving political relations between both sides. Creation of a Japan-Taiwan alliance is becoming a popular view in Taiwan?s strategic circle, and Japanese public have shown more sympathy to Taiwan?s international isolation. Japanese government even adjusted its policy toward the island state by including the Taiwan Strait into the sphere of concern in Japan-US Security Threty. These developments have been unthinkable in the past, because both China and Japan have committed to the ?One China? policy and because the Taiwan issue used to be excluded from China-Japan relations. This paper will examine the Taiwanese perspective of China-Japan relations. The author will outline the developments of Taiwan-Japan relations, identify the strategies Taiwanese government have utilized to strengthen the relations with Japan, and to assess the Taiwan factor in future Japan-China relations. In addition to analyses of secondary data, the author will also interview strategic scholars and even government officials to gain first hand information. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper overviews sophisticated triangular relations among Taipei, Beijing and Washington after 2000. Then, it scrutinizes the development of US mediation as a form of third-party intervention in such complicated dynamics in the Taiwan Strait. The pattern of contemporary US mediation is studied in an analytical way. Then, it analyzes the role and approaches (strategies) of the US in mediating between the ROC and the PRC, as well as evaluates preliminarily the future of US mediation. Some key findings include, for example: the US is gradually moving towards the role of real mediator in the cross-strait dispute, the characteristics of the US itself and the environment are positive forces driving further effective US mediation, as well as the US will continue to play a mediating role throughout the George W. BushÂ’s presidency but has to be cautious of the effectiveness of its mediation and the differences between Taipei and Beijing in order to find a useful way to enhance the understandability and acceptability of its official position on the peaceful resolution of the cross-strait sovereignty dispute. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we will examine U.S. policy toward the Taiwan Strait under the Bush Administration. Much empirical evidence showed that the policy toward the Taiwan Strait slightly changed during Bush?s first term. After elaborating the subtle change of U.S. policy, we will attempt to interpret such change from the modified structuralism perspective. Different from neo-realist?s assumption of international anarchical status, we adopt neoliberalist?s view of international institutions existing in the international system. However, we don?t agree with the neoliberalist?s assumption that states seek their absolute interests. Instead, we accept neorealist?s survival prerequisite for states. Therefore, we identify the world as a hierarchical system and states seek their relative gains in this system. We further set the hierarchical system into two levels, the higher one and the lower one. According to Waltz?s structural theory, we claim only strong powers can have the capability to play on the higher level, while weak states are staying on the lower level of the international system. Any great power is gaming with other great powers on higher level and with weak states on lower level. Through such interactions on two levels, the great power can get interests from both. However, if the interests from the higher level are in conflict with those from the lower level, the great power, weighing its great power counterparts over the weak states, will discard the interests from the weak states. Our testing scenario centers the U.S. policy toward the Taiwan Strait under the Bush Administration. To fit this model, the U.S. and China are two powers staying on the higher level and Taiwan stays on the lower level. Previously, the U.S. were trying to get interests from both levels and keeping the ?double track? policy. However, two events change the balance among the three players: 9/11 attack and Taiwan?s independent referendum. These events lead to a conflict of the interests from China and Taiwan and the previous ?double track? policy does not work well. Thus, in order to keep interests from the higher-level partner -- China, the U.S. chooses the strategy to sacrifice its lower-level interests from Taiwan by stopping Taiwan?s willing of independence behind the referendum. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In East Asia, Taiwan and North Korea had been two most striking sources of Sino-American security contention. In Taiwan Strait, the key issue is whether Taiwan would go independence, despite China?s flagrant threat of using military forces to deter it. In case of North Korea, whether the North gives up its nuclear program and adopts reform and open door policy or it finally faces internal/external collapse serves as an incessant debating menu. But in both cases, the US and China pose contending positions. In Taiwan, the US at least supports status quo in the Taiwan Strait, if not Taiwan?s independence; while China believes the case as the last thing that they can accept. The US expects North Korea?s Kim Jong-il regime to collapse in the end, while China struggles to help surviving moribund Kim?s regime.Although these two security issues had thus far been two major security issues relating to the Sino-American relations, these had strangely been analyzed and studied in separate fashion. In other words, many pundits, scholars, and politicians had widely dealt with the Taiwan issue and North Korean issue per se, but this study attempts to link both issues in causal relations and to evaluate its influence over the Sino-American diplomatic relations. Based on this assumption, this paper plans to review the Sino-American relations regarding Taiwan and North Korea, and then to find out any meaningful co-relationship between the two cases. In order to produce consequential research outcomes, this study will apply game-theoretic model and event data analysis. Also, this study will cover the period from 1990 to now. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite repeated U.S. claims that its policy toward relations across the Taiwan Strait is ?consistent? and ?clear,? in actuality its policy has long been one of ?strategic ambiguity.? It is widely recognized by scholars and policy-makers alike that the so-called Taiwan question is the most potentially explosive issue in U.S.-P.R.C relations.What is the strategic ambiguity policy all about? What role has it played in influencing the equilibrium outcomes of cross-Strait relations in the past three decades? How are the dynamics of the ?strategic triangle? consisting of the United States, Mainland China and Taiwan to be understood? How effective in preserving peace across the Taiwan Strait is U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity likely to be in the future? Few studies, if any, have provided theoretical answers to these questions. This paper tries to develop a game theoretic model which may provide tentative answers to these interesting, unresolved questions. Supporters of the ?strategic ambiguity? policy argue that it has successfully kept the Strait free of conflict: on the one hand, Mainland China always has to take into account the possibility that the United States might intervene if it were to attack Taiwan, and on the other hand, Taiwan always has to think twice before ?going too far? (such as declaring formal independence from the mainland). The policy, it is said, has served U.S. national security interests and has effectively accommodated changes in cross-Strait relations in past decades. There are opposing opinions, however. The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War have rendered one of the major imperatives for a U.S.-China rapprochement and compromises on Taiwan?the basis of the strategic ambiguity policy?obsolete. Moreover, the democratization of Taiwan and the increasing military threat if faces, such as the deployment of missiles by Mainland China aimed at Taiwan, have brought new variables into the equation. Taiwan?s thriving democracy has added ideological values and moral imperatives to the U.S. commitment of defending the island. The increasing military threat from Mainland China, meanwhile, seems to have strengthened the argument for an increasing commitment to Taiwan?s defense, either in the form of more military sales or coordination between U.S. and Taiwan militaries. A continuing ambiguity in U.S. policy, so the arguments goes, will encourage PRC militancy and frustrate Taiwan?s determination to resisting aggression, and may be prone to disrupt the delicate equilibrium. Above all, it seems to compromise the U.S. moral imperative of defending democratic values.Our model shows that the policy of strategic ambiguity helps preserve the status quo and maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. The strategic ambiguity policy is a defensive strategy in nature, well-suited at deterring both Mainland China and Taiwan from deviating from equilibrium strategies. In the long run, the strategic ambiguity policy, however, needs to be supplemented, if not replaced, by more imaginative policies in order to successfully manage the Taiwan issue. For example, the United States could be more forthright in proposals that help to eliminate potential conflicts of interest, such as proposing that Mainland China renounce the use of force to resolve the Taiwan issue in exchange for Taiwan?s pledge not to pursue independence. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The year of 2008 has witnessed the historical and significant moment of the first cross-Strait official interaction between two incumbent parties (the KMT of Taiwan and the CCP of China), which has been frozen for over six decades. Particularly, with Pres ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beijing and Taipei experienced an uneasy and even turbulent period of bilateral relations after the mid-1990s, particularly during the period 2000-08 when the pro-Taiwan independence party, DPP, was in office. With the KMT, which has a very different perc ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many recent studies find that international political conflictâ€"operationalized in a variety of waysâ€"harms trade. Well-known cases help to underscore these general findings. For example, Cold War tensions helped to undermine East-West trade, and trade between India and Pakistan slowed sharply in the years after partition. On the other hand, however, trade between adversaries also appears to vary substantially across cases. Indeed, trade can sometimes flourish despite intense political rivalry. In the current relationship between mainland China and Taiwan, for example, China has become Taiwan’s largest trading partner despite persistent political tension across the Taiwan Strait.How can we explain variation in the extent to which states trade with their adversaries? Building on existing literature, I develop a framework through which to understand how domestic coalitions concerning trade with an adversary are likely to form. While some actors are likely to favor or oppose trade for purely economic reasons, those without a direct economic stake in the relationship are likely to focus more on the political and security consequences of trade with the adversary. In this framework, two variables emerge as central in determining a country’s trade policy with an adversary: the relative political strength of internationalist versus protectionist economic interests, and whether those concerned primarily with politics believe trade will have positive or negative political and security externalities. I use the framework to develop several testable hypotheses, and evaluate them via short case studies of three contemporary rivalries: China/Taiwan; India/Pakistan; and North Korea/South Korea ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on economic interdependence and growing Taiwanese identity in cross-strait relations. It notes since the mid-1990s, the cross- strait relationship between the Republic of China on Taiwan (ROC) and People's Republic of China (PRC) has been marked with turmoil with periodic crises in which the possibility of an outbreak of armed conflicts appears to have been significant. Also described are the economic and social processes that are increasingly connecting Taiwan to the Chinese Mainland.

The article analyzes regional governance perspectives in Greater China. It explores the micro governance among the People's Republic of China (PRC), Taiwan and Hong Kong to show the modes of development shaped by their daily economic, trade, human and knowledge interactions. The author shows the catalyst of changes based on integration, interdependence, indifference and independence. The author argues that the deterioration of relations between Taiwan and the PRC was caused by many political as well as institutional factors.

The article looks at the future of cross-strait relations after the election of fourth-generation leaders in China in 2002. It cites that China has adopted a cool dealing strategy toward Taiwan after Chen Sui-bian was elected President in 2002 and condemned the defensive referendum proposed by the president. It argues that maintaining status quo in Taiwan Strait is the key to pursue the stability and peace in the strait. It explains the factors that resulted to the conflict in Taiwan Strait and the role played by the U.S. concerning the issue.

The article offers legal perspective on the conflict and compatibility in the cross-strait relations between Mainland China and Taiwan. It notes that the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) was eventually recognized in 1971 by the United Nations General Assembly as the only lawful representative of the entire China in the organization. Also compared and discussed is the legal framework created for both the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) and the Macao SAR.

Most of the contemporary policy debate regarding the interdependence of trade and conflict has been preoccupied with devising responses either in favor of or in opposition to the long prevailing notion that trade is positively and unconditionally correlated with peace because trading partners fear that conflict will result in the loss of welfare gains from trade. The realist response implies that political foes trade willingly only when relative gains are equivalent, and the liberal position implies that trade promotes peace because trade partners prefer gains from trade to conflict. The China-Taiwan security conflict provides a counter-example to each argument. Through the advantages of non-cooperative game theory, we model a trade-conflict interaction to discover the conditions under which trade and conflict will occur between trade partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the post-Cold War era, China, Japan and Taiwan entered the new phase of their relationship and were forced to reconsider their security and political dialogues. Despite of the US presence in East Asia, they are becoming more active players in the regio ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent year, there have been significant developments in the peace and stability in cross-Strait relations, which is critical to the international relations in East Asia. At the same time, economic interdependence links mainland China with the US and T ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing economic and social interaction between Taiwan and China has posed a huge challenge to government regulation on cross-Strait activities. Nonetheless, there is no consensus about whether the government should pursue an advanced opening or not among people in Taiwan. The dispute over whether the current restriction on the cross-Strait activities should be cut down and the extent to which the government should open its economy and society to China have always been highly contesting issues. As one of the major actors in the policy-making process, legislators play a very important role in this dispute. Accordingly, this essay aims to examine the determinants of legislators' position on further cross-Strait opening over time. Our empirical study shows that although the liberal perspective in international relations theory argues that the increasing economic and social interaction between both sides of the Strait will gradually create a more positive attitude toward China among Taiwanese political elites, domestic politics play a more important role in Taiwanese legislators' consideration about further cross-Strait opening. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taiwan resists reunification with China because of a credibility problem, but the problem is typically explained in a misleading way. While China has an incentive to renege on any promises it makes to respect Taiwanese autonomy under a “one country, two systems” bargain, Taiwan might still choose reunification if it thought that reunification would not independently diminish its bargaining leverage with Beijing. Taiwan’s leverage, whether it chooses reunification or not, depends on its expectations about the extent to which reunification would uniquely erode its economic ties outside China and its military support from the United States in the event of a crisis. If it were to lose those things anyway, it might choose reunification despite the mainland’s general lack of credibility. Historical comparisons with two analogous cases in the 19th century – Buenos Aries negotiations over Argentine reunification with the litoral provinces and Prussia’s negotiations over German unification with Saxony and Bavaria – illustrate our argument. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PARTY POLITICS DURING THE DEMOCRATIZATION PERIOD AND THE FOREIGN POLICY CHANGE: THE CASE OF TAIWAN, 1986-2000 YU ZhenhuiDepartment of Politics and Public AdministrationFaculty of Social SciencesThe University of Hong KongE-mail: zhenhuiy@hkusua.hku.hkThis study aims to explore the impact of party politics within a democratizing state /political entity on its foreign policy change, based on a critical review of the recent hot debate on the ?democratic peace? theory. This study will develop a theoretical framework to analyze the correlations between party politics during the democratization period and the foreign policy change, and conduct an intensive case study of Taiwan during its democratization period to contribute to this research area. The ?democratic peace? theory basically argues that democracies do not fight against each other theoretically and historically, and thus the spread of liberal democracy globally will bring about more peace and stability in the international relations. However, if an authoritarian state /political entity is undertaking a democratic transition, i.e., from a one-party authoritarian rule to a more competitive multiparty system, will it consistently stick to a stable foreign policy making in accordance with the ?democratic peace? proposition? Will it make any irrational or risky foreign policy change due to the development of party politics domestically? If yes, under what circumstances? Through the analytical framework applied in this research and an intensive case study of Taiwan, it shall be assumed that party politics within a democratizing state /political entity may produce some radical foreign policy change toward its ?identified? opponent, which may lead to regional instability and even a possibility of war, under the circumstances that will be summarized and analyzed in this study. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]