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Despite significant progress in vaccine research, the level of protection provided by vaccination can vary significantly across individuals. As a result, understanding immunologic variation across individuals in response to vaccination is important for developing next-generation efficacious vaccines. Accurate outcome prediction and identification of predictive biomarkers would represent a significant step towards this goal. Moreover, in early phase vaccine clinical trials, small datasets are prevalent, raising the need and challenge of building a robust and explainable prediction model that can reveal heterogeneity in small datasets. We propose a new model named Generative Mixture of Logistic Regression (GeM-LR), which combines characteristics of both a generative and a discriminative model. In addition, we propose a set of model selection strategies to enhance the robustness and interpretability of the model. GeM-LR extends a linear classifier to a non-linear classifier without losing interpretability and empowers the notion of predictive clustering for characterizing data heterogeneity in connection with the outcome variable. We demonstrate the strengths and utility of GeM-LR by applying it to data from several studies. GeM-LR achieves better prediction results than other popular methods while providing interpretations at different levels.

Combination monoclonal broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) are currently being developed for preventing HIV-1 acquisition. Recent work has focused on predicting in vitro neutralization potency of both individual bnAbs and combination regimens against HIV-1 pseudoviruses using Env sequence features. To predict in vitro combination regimen neutralization potency against a given HIV-1 pseudovirus, previous approaches have applied mathematical models to combine individual-bnAb neutralization and have predicted this combined neutralization value; we call this the combine-then-predict (CP) approach. However, prediction performance for some individual bnAbs has exceeded that for the combination, leading to another possibility: combining the individual-bnAb predicted values and using these to predict combination regimen neutralization; we call this the predict-then-combine (PC) approach. We explore both approaches in both simulated data and data from the Los Alamos National Laboratory's Compile, Neutralize, and Tally NAb Panels repository. The CP approach is superior to the PC approach when the neutralization outcome of interest is binary (e.g., neutralization susceptibility, defined as inhibitory 80% concentration < 1 μg/mL). For continuous outcomes, the CP approach performs nearly as well as the PC approach when the individual-bnAb prediction algorithms have strong performance, and is superior to the PC approach when the individual-bnAb prediction algorithms have poor performance. This knowledge may be used when building prediction models for novel antibody combinations in the absence of in vitro neutralization data for the antibody combination; this, in turn, will aid in the evaluation and down-selection of these antibody combinations into prevention efficacy trials.

The VRC01 Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) efficacy trials conducted between 2016 and 2020 showed for the first time that passively administered broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) could prevent HIV-1 acquisition against bnAb-sensitive viruses. HIV-1 viruses isolated from AMP participants who acquired infection during the study in the sub-Saharan African (HVTN 703/HPTN 081) and the Americas/European (HVTN 704/HPTN 085) trials represent a panel of currently circulating strains of HIV-1 and offer a unique opportunity to investigate the sensitivity of the virus to broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) being considered for clinical development. Pseudoviruses were constructed using envelope sequences from 218 individuals. The majority of viruses identified were clade B and C; with clades A, D, F and G and recombinants AC and BF detected at lower frequencies. We tested eight bnAbs in clinical development (VRC01, VRC07-523LS, 3BNC117, CAP256.25, PGDM1400, PGT121, 10-1074 and 10E8v4) for neutralization against all AMP placebo viruses (n = 76). Compared to older clade C viruses (1998-2010), the HVTN703/HPTN081 clade C viruses showed increased resistance to VRC07-523LS and CAP256.25. At a concentration of 1μg/ml (IC80), predictive modeling identified the triple combination of V3/V2-glycan/CD4bs-targeting bnAbs (10-1074/PGDM1400/VRC07-523LS) as the best against clade C viruses and a combination of MPER/V3/CD4bs-targeting bnAbs (10E8v4/10-1074/VRC07-523LS) as the best against clade B viruses, due to low coverage of V2-glycan directed bnAbs against clade B viruses. Overall, the AMP placebo viruses represent a valuable resource for defining the sensitivity of contemporaneous circulating viral strains to bnAbs and highlight the need to update reference panels regularly. Our data also suggests that combining bnAbs in passive immunization trials would improve coverage of global viruses.

Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) are promising agents to prevent HIV infection and achieve HIV remission without antiretroviral therapy (ART). As with ART, bNAb combinations are likely needed to cover HIV's extensive diversity. Not all bNAbs are identical in terms of their breadth, potency, and in vivo longevity (half-life). Given these differences, it is important to optimally select the composition, or dose ratio, of combination bNAb therapies for future clinical studies. We developed a model that synthesizes 1) pharmacokinetics, 2) potency against a wide HIV diversity, 3) interaction models for how drugs work together, and 4) correlates that translate in vitro potency to clinical protection. We found optimization requires drug-specific balances between potency, longevity, and interaction type. As an example, tradeoffs between longevity and potency are shown by comparing a combination therapy to a bi-specific antibody (a single protein merging both bNAbs) that takes the better potency but the worse longevity of the two components. Then, we illustrate a realistic dose ratio optimization of a triple combination of VRC07, 3BNC117, and 10-1074 bNAbs. We apply protection estimates derived from both a non-human primate (NHP) challenge study meta-analysis and the human antibody mediated prevention (AMP) trials. In both cases, we find a 2:1:1 dose emphasizing VRC07 is nearly optimal. Our approach can be immediately applied to optimize the next generation of combination antibody prevention and cure studies.

The pox-protein regimen tested in the RV144 trial is the only vaccine strategy demonstrated to prevent HIV-1 infection. Subsequent analyses identified antibody and cellular immune responses as correlates of risk (CoRs) for HIV infection. Early predictors of these CoRs could provide insight into vaccine-induced protection and guide efforts to enhance vaccine efficacy. Using specimens from a phase 1b trial of the RV144 regimen in HIV-1-uninfected South Africans (HVTN 097), we profiled innate responses to the first ALVAC-HIV immunization. PBMC transcriptional responses peaked 1 day post-vaccination. Type I and II interferon signaling pathways were activated, as were innate pathways critical for adaptive immune priming. We then identified two innate immune transcriptional signatures strongly associated with adaptive immune CoR after completion of the 4-dose regimen. Day 1 signatures were positively associated with antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity and phagocytosis activity at Month 6.5. Conversely, a signature present on Days 3 and 7 was inversely associated with Env-specific CD4+ T cell responses at Months 6.5 and 12; rapid resolution of this signature was associated with higher Env-specific CD4+ T-cell responses. These are the first-reported early immune biomarkers of vaccine-induced responses associated with HIV-1 acquisition risk in humans and suggest hypotheses to improve HIV-1 vaccine regimens.

BackgroundDNA plasmids promise a pragmatic alternative to viral vectors for prime-boost HIV-1 vaccines. We evaluated DNA plasmid versus canarypox virus (ALVAC) primes in 2 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials in southern Africa with harmonized trial designs. HIV Vaccine Trials Network (HVTN) 111 tested DNA plasmid prime by needle or needleless injection device (Biojector) and DNA plasmid plus gp120 protein plus MF59 adjuvant boost. HVTN 100 tested ALVAC prime and ALVAC plus gp120 protein plus MF59 adjuvant boost (same protein/adjuvant as HVTN 111) by needle.Methods and findingsThe primary endpoints for this analysis were binding antibody (bAb) responses to HIV antigens (gp120 from strains ZM96, 1086, and TV1; variable 1 and 2 [V1V2] regions of gp120 from strains TV1, 1086, and B.CaseA, as 1086 V1V2 and B.CaseA were correlates of risk in the RV144 efficacy trial), neutralizing antibody (nAb) responses to pseudoviruses TV1c8.2 and MW925.26, and cellular responses to vaccine-matched antigens (envelope [Env] from strains ZM96, 1086, and TV1; and Gag from strains LAI and ZM96) at month 6.5, two weeks after the fourth vaccination. Per-protocol cohorts included vaccine recipients from HVTN 100 (n = 186, 60% male, median age 23 years) enrolled between February 9, 2015, and May 26, 2015 and from HVTN 111 (n = 56, 48% male, median age 24 years) enrolled between June 21, 2016, and July 13, 2017. IgG bAb response rates were 100% to 3 Env gp120 antigens in both trials. Response rates to V1V2 were lower and similar in both trials except to vaccine-matched 1086 V1V2, with rates significantly higher for the DNA-primed regimen than the ALVAC-primed regimen: 96.6% versus 72.7% (difference = 23.9%, 95% CI 15.6%-32.2%, p < 0.001). Among positive responders, bAb net mean fluorescence intensity (MFI) was significantly higher with the DNA-primed regimen than ALVAC-primed for 1086 V1V2 (geometric mean [GM] 2,833.3 versus 1,200.9; ratio = 2.36, 95% CI 1.42-3.92, p < 0.001) and B.CaseA V1V2 (GM 2314.0 versus 744.6, ratio = 3.11, 95% CI 1.51-6.38, p = 0.002). nAb response rates were >98% in both trials, with significantly higher 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) among DNA-primed positive responders (n = 53) versus ALVAC-primed (n = 182) to tier 1A MW965.26 (GM 577.7 versus 265.7, ratio = 2.17, 95% CI 1.67-2.83, p < 0.001) and to TV1c8.2 (GM 187.3 versus 100.4, ratio = 1.87, 95% CI 1.48-2.35, p < 0.001). CD4+ T-cell response rates were significantly higher with DNA plasmid prime via Biojector than ALVAC prime (91.4% versus 52.8%, difference = 38.6%, 95% CI 20.5%-56.6%, p < 0.001 for ZM96.C; 88.0% versus 43.1%, difference = 44.9%, 95% CI 26.7%-63.1%, p < 0.001 for 1086.C; 55.5% versus 2.2%, difference = 53.3%, 95% CI 23.9%-82.7%, p < 0.001 for Gag LAI/ZM96). The study's main limitations include the nonrandomized comparison of vaccines from 2 different trials, the lack of data on immune responses to other non-vaccine-matched antigens, and the uncertain clinical significance of the observed immunological effects.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that further investigation of DNA/protein regimens is warranted given enhanced immunogenicity to the V1V2 correlates of decreased HIV-1 acquisition risk identified in RV144, the only HIV vaccine trial to date to show any efficacy.

BackgroundHVTN 100 evaluated the safety and immunogenicity of an HIV subtype C pox-protein vaccine regimen, investigating a 12-month booster to extend vaccine-induced immune responses.Methods and findingsA phase 1-2 randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial enrolled 252 participants (210 vaccine/42 placebo; median age 23 years; 43% female) between 9 February 2015 and 26 May 2015. Vaccine recipients received ALVAC-HIV (vCP2438) alone at months 0 and 1 and with bivalent subtype C gp120/MF59 at months 3, 6, and 12. Antibody (IgG, IgG3 binding, and neutralizing) and CD4+ T-cell (expressing interferon-gamma, interleukin-2, and CD40 ligand) responses were evaluated at month 6.5 for all participants and at months 12, 12.5, and 18 for a randomly selected subset. The primary analysis compared IgG binding antibody (bAb) responses and CD4+ T-cell responses to 3 vaccine-matched antigens at peak (month 6.5 versus 12.5) and durability (month 12 versus 18) timepoints; IgG responses to CaseA2_gp70_V1V2.B, a primary correlate of risk in RV144, were also compared at these same timepoints. Secondary and exploratory analyses compared IgG3 bAb responses, IgG bAb breadth scores, neutralizing antibody (nAb) responses, antibody-dependent cellular phagocytosis, CD4+ polyfunctionality responses, and CD4+ memory sub-population responses at the same timepoints. Vaccines were generally safe and well tolerated. During the study, there were 2 deaths (both in the vaccine group and both unrelated to study products). Ten participants became HIV-infected during the trial, 7% (3/42) of placebo recipients and 3% (7/210) of vaccine recipients. All 8 serious adverse events were unrelated to study products. Less waning of immune responses was seen after the fifth vaccination than after the fourth, with higher antibody and cellular response rates at month 18 than at month 12: IgG bAb response rates to 1086.C V1V2, 21.0% versus 9.7% (difference = 11.3%, 95% CI = 0.6%-22.0%, P = 0.039), and ZM96.C V1V2, 21.0% versus 6.5% (difference = 14.5%, 95% CI = 4.1%-24.9%, P = 0.004). IgG bAb response rates to all 4 primary V1V2 antigens were higher 2 weeks after the fifth vaccination than 2 weeks after the fourth vaccination: 87.7% versus 75.4% (difference = 12.3%, 95% CI = 1.7%-22.9%, P = 0.022) for 1086.C V1V2, 86.0% versus 63.2% (difference = 22.8%, 95% CI = 9.1%-36.5%, P = 0.001) for TV1c8.2.C V1V2, 67.7% versus 44.6% (difference = 23.1%, 95% CI = 10.4%-35.7%, P < 0.001) for ZM96.C V1V2, and 81.5% versus 60.0% (difference = 21.5%, 95% CI = 7.6%-35.5%, P = 0.002) for CaseA2_gp70_V1V2.B. IgG bAb response rates to the 3 primary vaccine-matched gp120 antigens were all above 90% at both peak timepoints, with no significant differences seen, except a higher response rate to ZM96.C gp120 at month 18 versus month 12: 64.5% versus 1.6% (difference = 62.9%, 95% CI = 49.3%-76.5%, P < 0.001). CD4+ T-cell response rates were higher at month 18 than month 12 for all 3 primary vaccine-matched antigens: 47.3% versus 29.1% (difference = 18.2%, 95% CI = 2.9%-33.4%, P = 0.021) for 1086.C, 61.8% versus 38.2% (difference = 23.6%, 95% CI = 9.5%-37.8%, P = 0.001) for TV1.C, and 63.6% versus 41.8% (difference = 21.8%, 95% CI = 5.1%-38.5%, P = 0.007) for ZM96.C, with no significant differences seen at the peak timepoints. Limitations were that higher doses of gp120 were not evaluated, this study was not designed to investigate HIV prevention efficacy, and the clinical significance of the observed immunological effects is uncertain.ConclusionsIn this study, a 12-month booster of subtype C pox-protein vaccines restored immune responses, and slowed response decay compared to the 6-month vaccination.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT02404311. South African National Clinical Trials Registry (SANCTR number: DOH--27-0215-4796).

The ongoing Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials will uncover whether passive infusion of the broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) VRC01 can protect against HIV acquisition. Previous statistical simulations indicate these trials may be partially protective. In that case, it will be crucial to identify the mechanism of breakthrough infections. To that end, we developed a mathematical modeling framework to simulate the AMP trials and infer the breakthrough mechanisms using measurable trial outcomes. This framework combines viral dynamics with antibody pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, and will be generally applicable to forthcoming bNAb prevention trials. We fit our model to human viral load data (RV217). Then, we incorporated VRC01 neutralization using serum pharmacokinetics (HVTN 104) and in vitro pharmacodynamics (LANL CATNAP database). We systematically explored trial outcomes by reducing in vivo potency and varying the distribution of sensitivity to VRC01 in circulating strains. We found trial outcomes could be used in a clinical trial regression model (CTRM) to reveal whether partially protective trials were caused by large fractions of VRC01-resistant (IC50>50 μg/mL) circulating strains or rather a global reduction in VRC01 potency against all strains. The former mechanism suggests the need to enhance neutralizing antibody breadth; the latter suggests the need to enhance VRC01 delivery and/or in vivo binding. We will apply the clinical trial regression model to data from the completed trials to help optimize future approaches for passive delivery of anti-HIV neutralizing antibodies.

BackgroundHIV vaccine trials routinely measure multiple vaccine-elicited immune responses to compare regimens and study their potential associations with protection. Here we employ unsupervised learning tools facilitated by a bidirectional power transformation to explore the multivariate binding antibody and T-cell response patterns of immune responses elicited by two pox-protein HIV vaccine regimens. Both regimens utilized a recombinant canarypox vector (ALVAC-HIV) prime and a bivalent recombinant HIV-1 Envelope glycoprotein 120 subunit boost. We hypothesized that within each trial, there were participant subgroups sharing similar immune responses and that their frequencies differed across trials.Methods and findingsWe analyzed data from three trials-RV144 (NCT00223080), HVTN 097 (NCT02109354), and HVTN 100 (NCT02404311), the latter of which was pivotal in advancing the tested pox-protein HIV vaccine regimen to the HVTN 702 Phase 2b/3 efficacy trial. We found that bivariate CD4+ T-cell and anti-V1V2 IgG/IgG3 antibody response patterns were similar by age, sex-at-birth, and body mass index, but differed for the pox-protein clade AE/B alum-adjuvanted regimen studied in RV144 and HVTN 097 (PAE/B/alum) compared to the pox-protein clade C/C MF59-adjuvanted regimen studied in HVTN 100 (PC/MF59). Specifically, more PAE/B/alum recipients had low CD4+ T-cell and high anti-V1V2 IgG/IgG3 responses, and more PC/MF59 recipients had broad responses of both types. Analyses limited to "vaccine-matched" antigens suggested that some of the differences in responses between the regimens could have been due to antigens in the assays that did not match the vaccine immunogens. Our approach was also useful in identifying subgroups with unusually absent or high co-responses across assay types, flagging individuals for further characterization by functional assays. We also found that co-responses of anti-V1V2 IgG/IgG3 and CD4+ T cells had broad variability. As additional immune response assays are standardized and validated, we anticipate our framework will be increasingly valuable for multivariate analysis.ConclusionsOur approach can be used to advance vaccine development objectives, including the characterization and comparison of candidate vaccine multivariate immune responses and improved design of studies to identify correlates of protection. For instance, results suggested that HVTN 702 will have adequate power to interrogate immune correlates involving anti-V1V2 IgG/IgG3 and CD4+ T-cell co-readouts, but will have lower power to study anti-gp120/gp140 IgG/IgG3 due to their lower dynamic ranges. The findings also generate hypotheses for future testing in experimental and computational analyses aimed at achieving a mechanistic understanding of vaccine-elicited immune response heterogeneity.

We previously showed that Month 13 50% plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT50) neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers against dengue virus (DENV) correlated with vaccine efficacy (VE) of CYD-TDV against symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD) in the CYD14 and CYD15 Phase 3 trials. While PRNT is the gold standard nAb assay, it is time-consuming and costly. We developed a next-generation high-throughput microneutralization (MN) assay and assessed its suitability for immune-correlates analyses and immuno-bridging applications. We analyzed MN and PRNT50 titers measured at baseline and Month 13 in a randomly sampled immunogenicity subset, and at Month 13 in nearly all VCD cases through Month 25. For each serotype, MN and PRNT50 titers showed high correlations, at both baseline and Month 13, with MN yielding a higher frequency of baseline-seronegatives. For both assays, Month 13 titer correlated inversely with VCD risk. Like PRNT50, high Month 13 MN titers were associated with high VE, and estimated VE increased with average Month 13 MN titer. We also studied each assay as a valid surrogate endpoint based on the Prentice criteria, which supported each assay as a valid surrogate for DENV-1 but only partially valid for DENV-2, -3, and -4. In addition, we applied Super-Learner to assess how well demographic, Month 13 MN, and/or Month 13 PRNT50 titers could predict Month 13-25 VCD outcome status; prediction was best when using demographic, MN, and PRNT50 information. We conclude that Month 13 MN titer performs comparably to Month 13 PRNT50 titer as a correlate of risk, correlate of vaccine efficacy, and surrogate endpoint. The MN assay could potentially be used to assess nAb titers in immunogenicity studies, immune-correlates studies, and immuno-bridging applications. Additional research would be needed for assessing the utility of MN titer in correlates analyses of other DENV endpoints and over longer follow-up periods.

The broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 is being evaluated for its efficacy to prevent HIV-1 infection in the Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials. A secondary objective of AMP utilizes sieve analysis to investigate how VRC01 prevention efficacy (PE) varies with HIV-1 envelope (Env) amino acid (AA) sequence features. An exhaustive analysis that tests how PE depends on every AA feature with sufficient variation would have low statistical power. To design an adequately powered primary sieve analysis for AMP, we modeled VRC01 neutralization as a function of Env AA sequence features of 611 HIV-1 gp160 pseudoviruses from the CATNAP database, with objectives: (1) to develop models that best predict the neutralization readouts; and (2) to rank AA features by their predictive importance with classification and regression methods. The dataset was split in half, and machine learning algorithms were applied to each half, each analyzed separately using cross-validation and hold-out validation. We selected Super Learner, a nonparametric ensemble-based cross-validated learning method, for advancement to the primary sieve analysis. This method predicted the dichotomous resistance outcome of whether the IC50 neutralization titer of VRC01 for a given Env pseudovirus is right-censored (indicating resistance) with an average validated AUC of 0.868 across the two hold-out datasets. Quantitative log IC50 was predicted with an average validated R2 of 0.355. Features predicting neutralization sensitivity or resistance included 26 surface-accessible residues in the VRC01 and CD4 binding footprints, the length of gp120, the length of Env, the number of cysteines in gp120, the number of cysteines in Env, and 4 potential N-linked glycosylation sites; the top features will be advanced to the primary sieve analysis. This modeling framework may also inform the study of VRC01 in the treatment of HIV-infected persons.

OBJECTIVE:To evaluate the association of rainy season with overall dengue disease incidence and with the efficacy of the Sanofi Pasteur recombinant, live, attenuated, tetravalent vaccine (CYD-TDV) in two randomized, controlled multicenter phase III clinical trials in Asia and Latin America. METHODS:Rainy seasons were defined for each study site using climatological information from the World Meteorological Organization. The dengue attack rate in the placebo group for each study month was calculated as the number of symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue events in a given month divided by the number of participants at risk in the same month. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models were used to test whether rainy season was associated with dengue disease and whether it modified vaccine efficacy in each of the two trials and in both of the trials combined. FINDINGS:Rainy season, country, and age were all significantly associated with dengue disease in both studies. Vaccine efficacy did not change during the rainy season in any of the analyses. CONCLUSIONS:Although dengue transmission and exposure are expected to increase during the rainy season, our results indicate that CYD-TDV vaccine efficacy remains constant throughout the year in endemic regions.

BACKGROUNDA phase 1 trial of a clade B HIV vaccine in HIV-uninfected adults evaluated the safety and immunogenicity of a DNA prime co-expressing GM-CSF (Dg) followed by different numbers and intervals of modified vaccinia Ankara Boosts (M). Both vaccines produce virus-like particles presenting membrane-bound Env.METHODSFour US sites randomized 48 participants to receiving 1/10th the DNA dose as DgDgMMM given at 0, 2, 4, 6 and 8 months, or full dose DgDgM_M or DgDgMM_M regimens, given at 0, 2, 4, and 8 months, and 0, 2, 4, 6, and 10 months, respectively. Peak immunogenicity was measured 2 weeks post-last vaccination.RESULTSAll regimens were well tolerated and safe. Full dose DgDgM_M and DgDgMM_M regimens generated Env-specific IgG to HIV-1 Env in >90%, IgG3 in >80%, and IgA in CONCLUSIONThis DNA/MVA prime-boost regimen induced durable, functional humoral responses that included ADCC, high antibody avidity, and Env IgG1 and IgG3 binding responses to the immunodominant region of gp41. The third, spaced MVA boost improved the overall quality of the antibody response. These products without co-expressed GM-CSF but combined with protein boosts will be considered for efficacy evaluation.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT01571960.

BACKGROUND:In the HIV-1 vaccine trial RV144, ALVAC-HIV prime with an AIDSVAX® B/E boost reduced HIV-1 acquisition by 31% at 42 months post first vaccination. The bivalent AIDSVAX® B/E vaccine contains two gp120 envelope glycoproteins, one from the subtype B HIV-1 MN isolate and one from the subtype CRF01_AE A244 isolate. Each envelope glycoprotein harbors a highly conserved 27-amino acid HSV-1 glycoprotein D (gD) tag sequence that shares 93% sequence identity with the HSV-2 gD sequence. We assessed whether vaccine-induced anti-gD antibodies protected females against HSV-2 acquisition in RV144. METHODS:Of the women enrolled in RV144, 777 vaccine and 807 placebo recipients were eligible and randomly selected according to their pre-vaccination HSV-1 and HSV-2 serostatus for analysis. Immunoglobulin G (IgG) and IgA responses to gD were determined by a binding antibody multiplex assay and HSV-2 serostatus was determined by Western blot analysis. Ninety-three percent and 75% of the vaccine recipients had anti-gD IgG and IgA responses two weeks post last vaccination, respectively. There was no evidence of reduction in HSV-2 infection by vaccination compared to placebo recipients over 78 weeks of follow-up. The annual incidence of HSV-2 infection in individuals who were HSV-2 negative at baseline or HSV-1 positive and HSV-2 indeterminate at baseline were 4.38/100 person-years (py) and 3.28/100 py in the vaccine and placebo groups, respectively. Baseline HSV-1 status did not affect subsequent HSV-2 acquisition. Specifically, the estimated odds ratio of HSV-2 infection by Week 78 for female placebo recipients who were baseline HSV-1 positive (n = 422) vs. negative (n = 1120) was 1.14 [95% confidence interval 0.66 to 1.94, p = 0.64)]. No evidence of reduction in the incidence of HSV-2 infection by vaccination was detected. CONCLUSIONS:AIDSVAX® B/E containing gD did not confer protection from HSV-2 acquisition in HSV-2 seronegative women, despite eliciting anti-gD serum antibodies.

The only evidence of vaccine-induced protection from HIV acquisition in humans was obtained in the RV144 HIV vaccine clinical trial. One immune correlate of risk in RV144 was observed to be higher titers of vaccine-induced antibodies (Abs) reacting with a 23-mer non-glycosylated peptide with the same amino acid sequence as a segment in the second variable (V2) loop of the MN strain of HIV. We used NMR to analyze the dynamic 3D structure of this peptide. Distance restraints between spatially proximate inter-residue protons were calculated from NOE cross peak intensities and used to constrain a thorough search of all possible conformations of the peptide. α-helical folding was strongly preferred by part of the peptide. A high-throughput structure prediction of this segment in all circulating HIV strains demonstrated that α-helical conformations are preferred by this segment almost universally across all subtypes. Notably, α-helical conformations of this segment of the V2 loop cluster cross-subtype-conserved amino acids on one face of the helix and the variable amino acid positions on the other in a semblance of an amphipathic α-helix. Accordingly, some Abs that protected against HIV in RV144 may have targeted a specific, conserved α-helical peptide epitope in the V2 loop of HIV's surface envelope glycoprotein.

Although the HVTN 505 DNA/recombinant adenovirus type 5 vector HIV-1 vaccine trial showed no overall efficacy, analysis of breakthrough HIV-1 sequences in participants can help determine whether vaccine-induced immune responses impacted viruses that caused infection. We analyzed 480 HIV-1 genomes sampled from 27 vaccine and 20 placebo recipients and found that intra-host HIV-1 diversity was significantly lower in vaccine recipients (P ≤ 0.04, Q-values ≤ 0.09) in Gag, Pol, Vif and envelope glycoprotein gp120 (Env-gp120). Furthermore, Env-gp120 sequences from vaccine recipients were significantly more distant from the subtype B vaccine insert than sequences from placebo recipients (P = 0.01, Q-value = 0.12). These vaccine effects were associated with signatures mapping to CD4 binding site and CD4-induced monoclonal antibody footprints. These results suggest either (i) no vaccine efficacy to block acquisition of any viral genotype but vaccine-accelerated Env evolution post-acquisition; or (ii) vaccine efficacy against HIV-1s with Env sequences closest to the vaccine insert combined with increased acquisition due to other factors, potentially including the vaccine vector.

The phase III Thai RV144 vaccine trial showed an estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) to prevent HIV-1 infection of 31.2%, which has motivated the search for immune correlates of vaccine protection. In a recent report, several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in FCGR2C were identified to associate with the level of VE in the RV144 trial. To investigate the functional significance of these SNPs, we utilized a large scale B cell RNA sequencing database of 462 individuals from the 1000 Genomes Project to examine associations between FCGR2C SNPs and gene expression. We found that the FCGR2C SNPs that associated with vaccine efficacy in RV144 also strongly associated with the expression of FCGR2A/C and one of them also associated with the expression of Fc receptor-like A (FCRLA), another Fc-γ receptor (FcγR) gene that was not examined in the previous report. These results suggest that the expression of FcγR genes is influenced by these SNPs either directly or in linkage with other causal variants. More importantly, these results motivate further investigations into the potential for a causal association of expression and alternative splicing of FCGR2C and other FcγR genes with the HIV-1 vaccine protection in the RV144 trial and other similar studies.

The interferon gamma, enzyme-linked immunospot (IFN-γ ELISpot) assay is widely used to identify viral antigen-specific T cells is frequently employed to quantify T cell responses in HIV vaccine studies. It can be used to define T cell epitope specificities using panels of peptide antigens, but with sample and cost constraints there is a critical need to improve the efficiency of epitope mapping for large and variable pathogens. We evaluated two epitope mapping strategies, based on group testing, for their ability to identify vaccine-induced T-cells from participants in the Step HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial, and compared the findings to an approach of assaying each peptide individually. The group testing strategies reduced the number of assays required by >7-fold without significantly altering the accuracy of T-cell breadth estimates. Assays of small pools containing 7-30 peptides were highly sensitive and effective at detecting single positive peptides as well as summating responses to multiple peptides. Also, assays with a single 15-mer peptide, containing an identified epitope, did not always elicit a response providing validation that 15-mer peptides are not optimal antigens for detecting CD8+ T cells. Our findings further validate pooling-based epitope mapping strategies, which are critical for characterizing vaccine-induced T-cell responses and more broadly for informing iterative vaccine design. We also show ways to improve their application with computational peptide:MHC binding predictors that can accurately identify the optimal epitope within a 15-mer peptide and within a pool of 15-mer peptides.

BACKGROUND:The safety and immunogenicity of SAAVI DNA-C2 (4 mg IM), SAAVI MVA-C (2.9 x 109 pfu IM) and Novartis V2-deleted subtype C gp140 (100 mcg) with MF59 adjuvant in various vaccination regimens was evaluated in HIV-uninfected adults in South Africa. METHODS:Participants at three South African sites were randomized (1:1:1:1) to one of four vaccine regimens: MVA prime, sequential gp140 protein boost (M/M/P/P); concurrent MVA/gp140 (MP/MP); DNA prime, sequential MVA boost (D/D/M/M); DNA prime, concurrent MVA/gp140 boost (D/D/MP/MP) or placebo. Peak HIV specific humoral and cellular responses were measured. RESULTS:184 participants were enrolled: 52% were female, all were Black/African, median age was 23 years (range, 18-42 years) and 79% completed all vaccinations. 159 participants reported at least one adverse event, 92.5% were mild or moderate. Five, unrelated, serious adverse events were reported. The M/M/P/P and D/D/MP/MP regimens induced the strongest peak neutralizing and binding antibody responses and the greatest CD4+ T-cell responses to Env. All peak neutralizing and binding antibody responses decayed with time. The MVA, but not DNA, prime contributed to the humoral and cellular immune responses. The D/D/M/M regimen was poorly immunogenic overall but did induce modest CD4+ T-cell responses to Gag and Pol. CD8+ T-cell responses to any antigen were low for all regimens. CONCLUSIONS:The SAAVI DNA-C2, SAAVI MVA-C and Novartis gp140 with MF59 adjuvant in various combinations were safe and induced neutralizing and binding antibodies and cellular immune responses. Sequential immunization with gp140 boosted immune responses primed by MVA or DNA. The best overall immune responses were seen with the M/M/P/P regimen. TRIAL REGISTRATION:ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01418235.

The RV144 clinical trial showed the partial efficacy of a vaccine regimen with an estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) of 31% for protecting low-risk Thai volunteers against acquisition of HIV-1. The impact of vaccine-induced immune responses can be investigated through sieve analysis of HIV-1 breakthrough infections (infected vaccine and placebo recipients). A V1/V2-targeted comparison of the genomes of HIV-1 breakthrough viruses identified two V2 amino acid sites that differed between the vaccine and placebo groups. Here we extended the V1/V2 analysis to the entire HIV-1 genome using an array of methods based on individual sites, k-mers and genes/proteins. We identified 56 amino acid sites or "signatures" and 119 k-mers that differed between the vaccine and placebo groups. Of those, 19 sites and 38 k-mers were located in the regions comprising the RV144 vaccine (Env-gp120, Gag, and Pro). The nine signature sites in Env-gp120 were significantly enriched for known antibody-associated sites (p = 0.0021). In particular, site 317 in the third variable loop (V3) overlapped with a hotspot of antibody recognition, and sites 369 and 424 were linked to CD4 binding site neutralization. The identified signature sites significantly covaried with other sites across the genome (mean = 32.1) more than did non-signature sites (mean = 0.9) (p < 0.0001), suggesting functional and/or structural relevance of the signature sites. Since signature sites were not preferentially restricted to the vaccine immunogens and because most of the associations were insignificant following correction for multiple testing, we predict that few of the genetic differences are strongly linked to the RV144 vaccine-induced immune pressure. In addition to presenting results of the first complete-genome analysis of the breakthrough infections in the RV144 trial, this work describes a set of statistical methods and tools applicable to analysis of breakthrough infection genomes in general vaccine efficacy trials for diverse pathogens.

The Phase 2b double-blinded, randomized Phambili/HVTN 503 trial evaluated safety and efficacy of the MRK Ad5 gag/pol/nef subtype B HIV-1 preventive vaccine vs placebo in sexually active HIV-1 seronegative participants in South Africa. Enrollment and vaccinations stopped and participants were unblinded but continued follow-up when the Step study evaluating the same vaccine in the Americas, Caribbean, and Australia was unblinded for non-efficacy. Final Phambili analyses found more HIV-1 infections amongst vaccine than placebo recipients, impelling the HVTN 503-S recall study.HVTN 503-S sought to enroll all 695 HIV-1 uninfected Phambili participants, provide HIV testing, risk reduction counseling, physical examination, risk behavior assessment and treatment assignment recall. After adding HVTN 503-S data, HIV-1 infection hazard ratios (HR vaccine vs. placebo) were estimated by Cox models.Of the 695 eligible, 465 (67%) enrolled with 230 from the vaccine group and 235 from the placebo group. 38% of the 184 Phambili dropouts were enrolled. Enrollment did not differ by treatment group, gender, or baseline HSV-2. With the additional 1286 person years of 503-S follow-up, the estimated HR over Phambili and HVTN 503-S follow-up was 1.52 (95% CI 1.08-2.15, p = 0.02, 82 vaccine/54 placebo infections). The HR was significant for men (HR = 2.75, 95% CI 1.49, 5.06, p = 0.001) but not for women (HR = 1.12, 95% CI 0.73, 1.72, p = 0.62).The additional follow-up from HVTN 503-S supported the Phambili finding of increased HIV-1 acquisition among vaccinated men and strengthened the evidence of lack of vaccine effect among women.clinicaltrials.gov NCT00413725 SA National Health Research Database DOH-27-0207-1539.

Three phase 2b, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized efficacy trials have tested recombinant Adenovirus serotype-5 (rAd5)-vector preventive HIV-1 vaccines: MRKAd5 HIV-1 gag/pol/nef in Step and Phambili, and DNA/rAd5 HIV-1 env/gag/pol in HVTN505. Due to efficacy futility observed at the first interim analysis in Step and HVTN505, participants of all three studies were unblinded to their vaccination assignments during the study but continued follow-up. Rigorous meta-analysis can provide crucial information to advise the future utility of rAd5-vector vaccines.We included participant-level data from all three efficacy trials, and three Phase 1-2 trials evaluating the HVTN505 vaccine regimen. We predefined two co-primary analysis cohorts for assessing the vaccine effect on HIV-1 acquisition. The modified-intention-to-treat (MITT) cohort included all randomly assigned participants HIV-1 uninfected at study entry, who received at least the first vaccine/placebo, and the Ad5 cohort included MITT participants who received at least one dose of rAd5-HIV vaccine or rAd5-placebo. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of HIV-1 infection (vaccine vs. placebo) and evaluate HR variation across vaccine regimens, time since vaccination, and subgroups using interaction tests.Results are similar for the MITT and Ad5 cohorts; we summarize MITT cohort results. Pooled across the efficacy trials, over all follow-up time 403 (n = 224 vaccine; n = 179 placebo) of 6266 MITT participants acquired HIV-1, with a non-significantly higher incidence in vaccine recipients (HR 1.21, 95% CI 0.99-1.48, P = 0.06). The HRs significantly differed by vaccine regimen (interaction P = 0.03; MRKAd5 HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.11-1.78, P = 0.005 vs. DNA/rAd5 HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.61-1.26, P = 0.48). Results were similar when including the Phase 1-2 trials. Exploratory analyses based on the efficacy trials supported that the MRKAd5 vaccine-increased risk was concentrated in Ad5-positive or uncircumcised men early in follow-up, and in Ad5-negative or circumcised men later. Overall, MRKAd5 vaccine-increased risk was evident across subgroups except in circumcised Ad5-negative men (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.58-1.63, P = 0.91); there was little evidence that the DNA/rAd5 vaccine, that was tested in this subgroup, increased risk (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.61-1.26, P = 0.48). When restricting the analysis of Step and Phambili to follow-up time before unblinding, 114 (n = 65 vaccine; n = 49 placebo) of 3770 MITT participants acquired HIV-1, with a non-significantly higher incidence in MRKAd5 vaccine recipients (HR 1.30, 95% CI 0.89-1.14, P = 0.18).The data support increased risk of HIV-1 infection by MRKAd5 over all follow-up time, but do not support increased risk of HIV-1 infection by DNA/rAd5. This study provides a rationale for including monitoring plans enabling detection of increased susceptibility to infection in HIV-1 at-risk populations.

UnlabelledIn the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial, IgG antibody (Ab) binding levels to variable regions 1 and 2 (V1V2) of the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein gp120 were an inverse correlate of risk of HIV-1 infection. To determine if V1V2-specific Abs cross-react with V1V2 from different HIV-1 subtypes, if the nature of the V1V2 antigen used to asses cross-reactivity influenced infection risk, and to identify immune assays for upcoming HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trials, new V1V2-scaffold antigens were designed and tested. Protein scaffold antigens carrying the V1V2 regions from HIV-1 subtypes A, B, C, D or CRF01_AE were assayed in pilot studies, and six were selected to assess cross-reactive Abs in the plasma from the original RV144 case-control cohort (41 infected vaccinees, 205 frequency-matched uninfected vaccinees, and 40 placebo recipients) using ELISA and a binding Ab multiplex assay. IgG levels to these antigens were assessed as correlates of risk in vaccine recipients using weighted logistic regression models. Levels of Abs reactive with subtype A, B, C and CRF01_AE V1V2-scaffold antigens were all significant inverse correlates of risk (p-values of 0.0008-0.05; estimated odds ratios of 0.53-0.68 per 1 standard deviation increase). Thus, levels of vaccine-induced IgG Abs recognizing V1V2 regions from multiple HIV-1 subtypes, and presented on different scaffolds, constitute inverse correlates of risk for HIV-1 infection in the RV144 vaccine trial. The V1V2 antigens provide a link between RV144 and upcoming HIV-1 vaccine trials, and identify reagents and methods for evaluating V1V2 Abs as possible correlates of protection against HIV-1 infection.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT00223080.

Elevated risk of HIV-1 infection among recipients of an adenovirus serotype 5 (Ad5)-vectored HIV-1 vaccine was previously reported in the Step HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial. We assessed pre-infection cellular immune responses measured at 4 weeks after the second vaccination to determine their roles in HIV-1 infection susceptibility among Step study male participants.We examined ex vivo interferon-γ (IFN-γ) secretion from peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) using an ELISpot assay in 112 HIV-infected and 962 uninfected participants. In addition, we performed flow cytometric assays to examine T-cell activation, and ex vivo IFN-γ and interleukin-2 secretion from CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells. We accounted for the sub-sampling design in Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of HIV-1 infection per 1-log(e) increase of the immune responses.We found that HIV-specific immune responses were not associated with risk of HIV-1 infection. However, each 1-log(e) increase of mock responses measured by the ELISpot assay (i.e., IFN-γ secretion in the absence of antigen-specific stimulation) was associated with a 62% increase of HIV-1 infection risk among vaccine recipients (HR = 1.62, 95% CI: (1.28, 2.04), p

The RV144 clinical trial of a prime/boost immunizing regimen using recombinant canary pox (ALVAC-HIV) and two gp120 proteins (AIDSVAX B and E) was previously shown to have a 31.2% efficacy rate. Plasma specimens from vaccine and placebo recipients were used in an extensive set of assays to identify correlates of HIV-1 infection risk. Of six primary variables that were studied, only one displayed a significant inverse correlation with risk of infection: the antibody (Ab) response to a fusion protein containing the V1 and V2 regions of gp120 (gp70-V1V2). This finding prompted a thorough examination of the results generated with the complete panel of 13 assays measuring various V2 Abs in the stored plasma used in the initial pilot studies and those used in the subsequent case-control study. The studies revealed that the ALVAC-HIV/AIDSVAX vaccine induced V2-specific Abs that cross-react with multiple HIV-1 subgroups and recognize both conformational and linear epitopes. The conformational epitope was present on gp70-V1V2, while the predominant linear V2 epitope mapped to residues 165-178, immediately N-terminal to the putative α4β7 binding motif in the mid-loop region of V2. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated to compare the risk of infection with data from 12 V2 assays, and in 11 of these, the ORs were ≤1, reaching statistical significance for two of the variables: Ab responses to gp70-V1V2 and to overlapping V2 linear peptides. It remains to be determined whether anti-V2 Ab responses were directly responsible for the reduced infection rate in RV144 and whether anti-V2 Abs will prove to be important with other candidate HIV vaccines that show efficacy, however, the results support continued dissection of Ab responses to the V2 region which may illuminate mechanisms of protection from HIV-1 infection and may facilitate the development of an effective HIV-1 vaccine.

Here we have identified HIV-1 B clade Envelope (Env) amino acid signatures from early in infection that may be favored at transmission, as well as patterns of recurrent mutation in chronic infection that may reflect common pathways of immune evasion. To accomplish this, we compared thousands of sequences derived by single genome amplification from several hundred individuals that were sampled either early in infection or were chronically infected. Samples were divided at the outset into hypothesis-forming and validation sets, and we used phylogenetically corrected statistical strategies to identify signatures, systematically scanning all of Env. Signatures included single amino acids, glycosylation motifs, and multi-site patterns based on functional or structural groupings of amino acids. We identified signatures near the CCR5 co-receptor-binding region, near the CD4 binding site, and in the signal peptide and cytoplasmic domain, which may influence Env expression and processing. Two signatures patterns associated with transmission were particularly interesting. The first was the most statistically robust signature, located in position 12 in the signal peptide. The second was the loss of an N-linked glycosylation site at positions 413-415; the presence of this site has been recently found to be associated with escape from potent and broad neutralizing antibodies, consistent with enabling a common pathway for immune escape during chronic infection. Its recurrent loss in early infection suggests it may impact fitness at the time of transmission or during early viral expansion. The signature patterns we identified implicate Env expression levels in selection at viral transmission or in early expansion, and suggest that immune evasion patterns that recur in many individuals during chronic infection when antibodies are present can be selected against when the infection is being established prior to the adaptive immune response.

Comparative sequence analyses, including such fundamental bioinformatics techniques as similarity searching, sequence alignment and phylogenetic inference, have become a mainstay for researchers studying type 1 Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV-1) genome structure and evolution. Implicit in comparative analyses is an underlying model of evolution, and the chosen model can significantly affect the results. In general, evolutionary models describe the probabilities of replacing one amino acid character with another over a period of time. Most widely used evolutionary models for protein sequences have been derived from curated alignments of hundreds of proteins, usually based on mammalian genomes. It is unclear to what extent these empirical models are generalizable to a very different organism, such as HIV-1-the most extensively sequenced organism in existence. We developed a maximum likelihood model fitting procedure to a collection of HIV-1 alignments sampled from different viral genes, and inferred two empirical substitution models, suitable for describing between-and within-host evolution. Our procedure pools the information from multiple sequence alignments, and provided software implementation can be run efficiently in parallel on a computer cluster. We describe how the inferred substitution models can be used to generate scoring matrices suitable for alignment and similarity searches. Our models had a consistently superior fit relative to the best existing models and to parameter-rich data-driven models when benchmarked on independent HIV-1 alignments, demonstrating evolutionary biases in amino-acid substitution that are unique to HIV, and that are not captured by the existing models. The scoring matrices derived from the models showed a marked difference from common amino-acid scoring matrices. The use of an appropriate evolutionary model recovered a known viral transmission history, whereas a poorly chosen model introduced phylogenetic error. We argue that our model derivation procedure is immediately applicable to other organisms with extensive sequence data available, such as Hepatitis C and Influenza A viruses.

The first efficacy trials--named STEP--of a T cell vaccine against HIV/AIDS began in 2004. The unprecedented structure of these trials raised new modeling and statistical challenges. Is it plausible that memory T cells, as opposed to antibodies, can actually prevent infection? If they fail at prevention, to what extent can they ameliorate disease? And how do we estimate efficacy in a vaccine trial with two primary endpoints, one traditional, one entirely novel (viral load after infection), and where the latter may be influenced by selection bias due to the former? In preparation for the STEP trials, biostatisticians developed novel techniques for estimating a causal effect of a vaccine on viral load, while accounting for post-randomization selection bias. But these techniques have not been tested in biologically plausible scenarios. We introduce new stochastic models of T cell and HIV kinetics, making use of new estimates of the rate that cytotoxic T lymphocytes--CTLs; the so-called killer T cells--can kill HIV-infected cells. Based on these models, we make the surprising discovery that it is not entirely implausible that HIV-specific CTLs might prevent infection--as the designers explicitly acknowledged when they chose the endpoints of the STEP trials. By simulating thousands of trials, we demonstrate that the new statistical methods can correctly identify an efficacious vaccine, while protecting against a false conclusion that the vaccine exacerbates disease. In addition to uncovering a surprising immunological scenario, our results illustrate the utility of mechanistic modeling in biostatistics.