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The purpose of this study is to forecast inbound tourism to Asia and outbound tourism from Asia by considering the possible impacts of the current financial and economic crisis. The autoregressive distributed lag model is used to calculate the interval demand elasticities, which are then used to generate interval forecasts for inbound tourism to and outbound tourism from Asia. Interval forecasts reduce the risk of complete forecasting failure arising from the uncertainties associated with the crisis. The forecast results suggest that the financial and economic crisis will have a negative impact on both inbound and outbound tourism in Asia but the demand will rebound from 2010. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article considers two tourism supply chains (TSCs). Each TSC is assumed to consists of three sectors with the following service providers–a theme park operator, accommodation providers, and tour operators. Game theory is used to investigate the cooperation and competition between these two TSCs, between the three sectors within each TSC, and between the enterprises within each sector when configuring and marketing package holidays. Several important findings are obtained. First, a larger membership in each of the TSC sectors strengthens the sector's overall capacity and intensifies the internal competition, thus reducing members' profits while other sectors benefit from this internal competition. Second, decision makers of the two competing TSCs should adopt appropriate product differentiation strategies by carefully positioning their package holiday products to optimize their performance. Third, the theme park would benefit from integration with the accommodation provider. There exists a win-win situation in which the performances of both TSCs could be improved, if the integration adequately increases the TSCs' preference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the mutual relationships among tourists' perceived service quality, value, satisfaction, and intentions to repurchase packaged tour services from travel agents. A mediation model where tourist satisfaction is hypothesized as a key mediator of the relationships between perceived service quality and repurchase intentions, and between perceived value and repurchase intentions, is developed and tested using a substantial data set with a time span of 9 consecutive years, available from a well-established regional consumer satisfaction survey. While previous literature has suggested that quality perceptions impose a direct effect on tourists' repurchase intentions, this study shows that such effect is fully mediated by tourists' satisfaction. The mediating role of satisfaction is further supported by examining the direct and indirect effects of perceived value on tourists' repurchase intentions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the performance of combination forecasts in comparison to individual forecasts. The empirical study focuses on the U.K. outbound leisure tourism demand for the United States. The combination forecasts are based on the competing forecasts generated from seven individual forecasting techniques. The three combination methods examined in this study are the simple average combination method, the variance-covariance combination method, and the discounted mean square forecast error method. The empirical results suggest that combination forecasts overall play an important role in the improvement of forecasting accuracy in that they are superior to the best of the individual forecasts over different forecasting horizons. The variance—covariance combination method turns out to be the best among the three combination methods. Another finding is that the encompassing test does not significantly contribute to the improved accuracy of combination forecasts. This study provides robust evidence for the efficiency of combination forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By analyzing 766 articles from travel trade magazines published in 2005, this article aim to identify tourism trends in the Asia-Pacific region. The qualitative analysis sketches a holistic conceptual network of relationships among trends, whereas the quantitative analysis visually presents the trends' commonalities or differences among four subregions (Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Oceania). This article differs from previous studies in that it counts the frequencies of quotations associated with codes rather than the commonly used keywords. Quotations are composed of sentences and paragraphs that provide a deeper and richer understanding of the context. And as the title implies, it visualizes the relationships among trends and between trends and sub-regions. Through visualizing the qualitative data holistically and individually, this approach is intended to "see the forest for the trees." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents the results of content analysis of 373 referees' reports of manuscripts submitted to 35 hospitality and tourism journals where rejection or major revision was recommended. Failed manuscripts had multiple shortcomings, with referees identifying an average of 6.2 deficiencies per article. The most common areas where referees found fault with manuscripts were methodology (74% of papers), failure to elucidate significance effectively (60%), poor writing style (58%) and a weak literature review (50%). The study concluded that communications' problems were more common than technical flaws. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the relationship between macroeconomic and the hospitality stock variables using the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling approach. The empirical results based on the U.S. data show that the hospitality stock indices largely follow an auto-regressive process, and they are not entirely independent from some key macroeconomic variables. Specifically, the BOND variable explains a substantial proportion of the forecast error variance among the stock indices for restaurants, lodging, and casinos. The consumer price index, money supply, and industrial production variables, however provide a relatively smaller contribution toward explaining the forecast error variance in these hospitality stock indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability of various econometric and univariate time-series models to generate accurate forecasts of international tourism demand is evaluated. Accuracy is assessed in terms of error magnitude and also directional change error. Statistical testing for both forecasting bias and directional change forecasting performance is introduced. The empirical results show that for 1-year-ahead forecasting, the time-varying parameter model performs consistently well. However, for 2- and 3-years-ahead forecasting, the best model varies according to the forecasting error criterion under consideration. This highlights the importance (for longer term forecasts) of selecting a forecasting method that is appropriate for the particular objective of the forecast user. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a study which applied the general-to-specific approach to econometric modeling and forecasting in international tourism demand. Limitations of the specific-to-general approach; Development of the forecasting models for tourist arrivals in Korea; Events that influenced the demand for Korean tourism.

Discusses a study which proposed the time-varying parameter (TVP) approach to tourism demand modeling. Behavioral change of tourists; Appropriateness of the TVP approach; Demand for Hong Kong, China tourism by residents from other countries.