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In this paper, we synthesize and extend theoretical accounts of the solicitor general's (SG) influence on the votes of Supreme Court justices. In particular, we argue that the level of politicization exhibited by the SG can affect both the foundation of political support the SG enjoys from ideologically proximate justices and the strength of "outlier signals" offered in particular cases. When the SG exhibits increased politicization, outlier signals are likely to be especially useful to ideologically distant justices and, therefore, predictive of their behavior. When the SG is less politicized, outlier signal briefs should be more equivalent to mainstream briefs, and, therefore, relatively less informative. Analyzing justices' votes in civil liberties and civil rights cases, we find empirical support for our theoretical claims. In particular, we find that the effects of politicization in the Office of the Solicitor General and outlier signals contained in individual case briefs are conditional on one another and on the degree of ideological divergence between each justice and the SG. This study offers a more complete account of the ways that political dynamics shape executive branch litigation and linkages between the president and the Supreme Court. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on the causes of midterm decline in US elections is an important area of study in political science. Though there has been a lot of work on midterm decline at the national level, there has not been a lot of research about how theories of midterm decline can be applied to the US federal system. This paper focuses on establishing a relationship between the president's party and gubernatorial elections using longitudinal hierarchical linear modeling. I find that the evaluations of the president can impact elections, and that there is an important effect of presidential punishment. These results indicate the need for more research about how theories of midterm decline specifically impact state level voting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we look again at the distinction between independent voters "leaners" and partisans. We find some important similarities between "pure" independents and independents classified as "leaners." We argue that although independent leaners may be similar to partisans on some measures, they are behaviorally and attitudinally distinct from partisans in important ways. Even more importantly, the behavioral similarity between partisans and leaners changes when there are more than two candidates on offer. The behavioral similarity of leaners to partisans emphasized in previous studies can thus be understood as a product of the forced choice between the two parties that typifies the American political system. When more options are available, independent leaners take advantage of those options and do not remain loyal to the two big parties in the same measure as partisans. The position of independent leaners in the US is thus loosely analogous to the position tactical voters in multi-party systems in that they are compelled by the party system to choose between the lesser of two evils. Our argument suggests that earlier results and interpretations of independents reflected the specific two party choice settings of the 1950s through the 1980s. Furthermore, even assuming a behavioral similarity to partisans, leaners have distinct attitudes towards politics and the political system that put them far away from being standard Michigan model-type voters. We begin by presenting a brief review of the sizable literature on this topic. From here we present some simple evidence that supports an alternative interpretation of leaners as neither partisans nor "pure" independents, but as "critical citizens." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the "Two Faces of Issue Voting" (1980), Carmines and Stimson argue that some issues are inherently "easy" and are understood by the public at an emotional, "gut" level, while other issues are intrinsically "hard" and require greater political sophistication and interest to process. This theory is intuitively appealing and widely cited in the American political behavior literature. Yet "easy" issues have been interpreted differently by various scholars, so how can we tell which are "easy" issues? Using survey data over time, I explore different measures of easiness, beginning with a traditional measure (connection to the vote) and then moving to other potential indicators of easy issues, examining the role of core values and group affect in conditioning issue easiness. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the impact of legislative extremism on contestation and vote share in the U.S. Studies indicate that incumbent ideological extremity varies across members. The authors claim that increased incumbent ideological extremity does increase the possibility of contestation and produce smaller vote shares for members coming from moderate districts. However, the increased incumbent ideological extremity decreases the possibility of contestation and increases vote shares for members from ideologically extreme districts.

In recent decades, a majority of states have instituted some form of early or convenience voting, whether in person or through the mail. With availability of these options, the cost to citizens of participating in elections has invariably declined, which would lead us to expect that turnout should therefore increase. It is still not clear, however, whether the expansion of the opportunity to vote has actually increased participation, and if so, for whom. Using 2004 American National Elections Studies data, as well as information about the activities of the Bush and Kerry campaigns in each state, we examine whether the institution of these alternatives does in fact increase the chances that an individual will turn out to vote in presidential elections, either directly or in combination with activities of the campaigns. Overall, we find no main effect for the availability of any form of early or convenience voting on the probability that an individual will vote. We do, however, find that in person early voting, when combined with television advertising by the campaigns, can increase the chances that individuals who are otherwise least likely to vote will take part in the election. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explores the issue base of the gender gap in voting. Overview of the central issues on which women and men differ in U.S. politics; Factors which make women relatively liberal on issues affecting the less fortunate in society and less likely than men to vote strictly in terms of their own economic self-interest; Several models of how the issue positions of women and men can shape the gender gap in voting; Reasons women are becoming an important serial constituency in U.S. politics.

In previous work, I examine the effects of race on the perception of candidate ideologies in U.S. House elections. I find, for example, that white voters tend to perceive black candidates to be more liberal than ideologically identical white candidates. The proposed paper will extend this line of research and explore how the influence of race on the perception of candidate ideologies affects the voting decisions that citizens make. In analyzing ten years of American National Election Studies survey data combined with Poole-Rosenthal DW-Nominate scores and data on the race of candidates, I will contribute to a literature that has heretofore been largely experimental in nature. While experiments have been valuable in demonstrating the importance of race in the evaluation of candidate ideologies, my research design is less susceptible to social desirability bias, and I am better able to estimate importance of race relative to factors such as party identification in complex, real-world campaigns where information about candidates is transmitted in many ways and over a long period of time. Additionally, in using a simultaneous equations approach to model vote choice, I hope to isolate "simple prejudice," where voters simply refuse to vote for candidates of other races, from the more complex phenomenon of race impacting vote choice by being used as a cue in the evaluation of candidate ideologies. This research has ramifications for the quality of representation in the United States, the study of voting behavior, and the study of race and politics. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]