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Climate movements have gained momentum in recent years, aiming to create public awareness of the consequences of climate change through salient climate protests. This paper investigates whether concerns about climate change increase following demonstrative protests and confrontational acts of civil disobedience. Leveraging individual-level survey panel data from Germany, we exploit exogenous variations in the timing of climate protests relative to survey interview dates to compare climate change concerns in the days before and after a protest (N = 24,535). Following climate protests, we find increases in concerns about climate change by, on average, 1.2 percentage points. Further, we find no statistically significant evidence that concerns of any subpopulation decreased after climate protests. Lastly, the increase in concerns following protests is highest when concern levels before the protests are low. Climate movements aim to raise public awareness of climate change through protests, but their efficacy is debated. Here, the authors show that concerns about climate change increased in Germany after climate strikes and non-violent acts of civil disobedience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns of an increase in heavy rainfall events due to global warming and climate change, which can result in significant economic costs for insurance companies and businesses. To address this challenge, insurance companies are focusing on developing new risk management strategies and offering new products such as flood insurance. However, the article argues that effective and feasible coordination shortens recovery time and can therefore drastically reduce the financial costs of a crisis—that is, the insurance costs. The paper analyses the deficit in crisis management during heavy rain events in Germany, based on the 2021 Ahr valley flood. The analysis is conducted based on document analysis and interviews and focuses on three areas of deficit: coordination between crisis staffs and (1) civil society, (2) emergency responders, and (3) political leaders. The paper highlights the importance of coordination during a crisis, which can help to address the crisis more efficiently and effectively, minimise damage and get communities back on their feet faster. The paper recommends policy changes to improve interface management and disaster management coordination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Germany, Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Franco) is seen as a valuable species for future cultivation in times of climate change. Local seed production in seed stands and seed orchards may secure that local adaptation is transferred to the next generation, but small population sizes could lower genetic diversity and thus future adaptability. Here we analyse the transfer of genetic diversity from parent to offspring generation in four older German seed orchards. We detected low pollen contamination rates due to high levels of spatial isolation. Even with a relatively low number of 40 clones, seed orchard design with randomized and repeated planting of clones led to low selfing rates, and despite uneven parental contributions, the number of successful parents and the level of genetic intermixture were high enough to allow the transfer of an adequate part of the genetic diversity to the next generation. Larger numbers, however, might be needed to reliably conserve the entire genetic diversity over succeeding generations. Conclusions on the establishment of future seed orchards and regarding areas requiring further research are drawn at the end of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature-based solutions (NBS) for mitigating climate change are gaining popularity. The number of NBS is increasing, but research gaps still exist at the governance level. The objectives of this paper are (i) to give an overview of the implemented NBS for flood risk management and mitigation in Germany, (ii) to identify governance models that are applied, and (iii) to explore the differences between these models. The results of a hierarchical clustering procedure and a qualitative analysis show that while no one-size-fits-all governance model exists, polycentricism is an important commonality between the projects. The study concludes by highlighting the need for further research on traditional governance model reconversion and paradigm changes. We expect the findings to identify what has worked in the past, as well as what is important for the implementation of NBS for flood risk management in future projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Structures and functions of ecosystems and, subsequently, their services for human societies may be influenced by climate change and atmospheric deposition. Jenssen et al. (UBA Texte 87/2013: 1–381, 2013) developed a spatially explicit evaluation system enabling the evaluation of ecosystems' integrity. This methodology is based on a spatially explicit ecosystem classification of forests. Based on the six ecological functions, the methodology enables to compare the ecosystem type-specific integrity at different levels of ecological hierarchy for a reference state (1961–1990) with the further development of the forest ecosystem types as measured for the years 1991–2010 and as modelled for the period 2011–2070. The present study aimed at deepening the methodology and developing it into a practical system for assessing and mapping forest ecosystem integrity and services. The objectives of this advanced investigation were: (1) to quantify the reference conditions for a total of 61 forest ecosystem types; (2) to test the possibility of supplementing the quantification of ecosystem integrity by information on soil biocenoses as yielded by soil monitoring; (3) to model chemical soil indicators and to compare the respective results with those derived by Ellenberg's indicator values for nutrient state; and (4) to verify the indicator modelling. Results: Reference states related to the time prior to 1991 have been quantified for a total of 61 forest ecosystem types covering 85% (81,577 km2) of the mapped forest area of Germany. The reference states comprise statistical indicators for the plant-species diversity (habitat function), for nutrient and water balances and further ecological information as net-primary production and carbon storage. The assignment of lumbricide communities as soil biocenosis indicators was attempted but not succeeded because of insufficient data availability. The nutrient cycle types of the elaborated reference states were characterized by humus form, C/N ratio in topsoil and N indicator values according to Ellenberg et al. (Scr Geobot 18:1–262, 2001). Applying the developed methodology, for 83 out of 105 study plots the reference states prior to 1991 could be determined. Conclusions: For complementing forest ecosystem reference states by soil biocenosis indicators it is necessary to further evaluate the primary literature looking for missing observation data. The W.I.E. indicator value applied in this paper to determine topsoil C/N ratios in forests is well suited for area-covering mapping of both near-natural forest–soil states and deposition-induced disharmonic state changes, in which C/N value and base saturation are no longer correlated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While climate change has become a salient political and social issue in Western societies, we know relatively little about how these societies will react to one of the potentially important consequences of climate change: increasing migration flows. By means of a representative online survey in Germany, this paper therefore investigates for the very first time to what extent citizens in industrialized societies are willing to accept climate change migrants, especially in comparison with other groups of migrants and refugees, and the circumstances and principles under which they would accept them. The findings show that climate change migrants receive high support levels comparable with those enjoyed by political refugees (migrants who need special protection) and that contrast with attitudes towards economic migrants (who are often not seen as in need of special protection). We also see that people are more likely to accept justifications for taking climate change migrants when they realize that the expected number of migrants is relatively low. While arguments about morality, corrective justice, and a country's capacity lead to similar acceptance rates in general, the latter argument plays a more important role for highly educated people and non-environmentalists than the former two. The findings of this study allow us to better prepare for potential conflicts that might emerge with increasing migration flows caused by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine fisheries are increasingly impacted by climate change, affecting species distribution and productivity, and necessitating urgent adaptation efforts. Climate vulnerability assessments (CVA), integrating expert knowledge, are vital for identifying species that could thrive or suffer under changing environmental conditions. This study presents a first CVA for the Western Baltic Sea's fish community, a crucial fishing area for Denmark and Germany. Characterized by a unique mix of marine, brackish, and freshwater species, this coastal ecosystem faces significant changes due to the combined effects of overfishing, eutrophication and climate change. Our CVA involved a qualitative expert scoring of 22 fish species, assessing their sensitivity and exposure to climate change. Our study revealed a dichotomy in climate change vulnerability within the fish community of the Western Baltic Sea because traditional fishing targets cod and herring as well as other species with complex life histories are considered to face increased risks, whereas invasive or better adaptable species might thrive under changing conditions. Our findings hence demonstrate the complex interplay between life-history traits and climate change vulnerability in marine fish communities. Eventually, our study provides critical knowledge for the urgent development of tailored adaptation efforts addressing existing but especially future effects of climate change on fish and fisheries in the Western Baltic Sea, to navigate this endangered fisheries systems into a sustainable future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The decarbonization of the mobility sector is one of the main challenges in the context of climate mitigation. In Germany, as in many other countries, policy measures aiming to make the mobility system greener frequently fail to produce substantial results, not least due to a lack of support by large sections of the general public. Policy measures directed at reducing car traffic in particular are often met with indifference and resistance. The question thus arises: what basis do citizens use to form their (often negative) opinions about sustainable mobility policies? As a conceptual starting point for our empirical analysis, we draw on the frame concept and focus on people's frames of the politics of mobility. With "politics of mobility" we refer to everything people could consider as political with regard to mobility. We understand frames as culturally mediated patterns of interpretation that ultimately motivate and guide actions. Results: Based on interviews and focus group data gathered in the region of the city of Stuttgart (Germany), we identify two dominant frames as well as combinations of these frames by which people make sense of the activities of political actors in the field of mobility. In one frame, which we labeled "politics-as-actor", mobility politics are interpreted with reference to politics as some kind of monolithic abstract actor. In the other, which we labeled as "politics-as-staged-process", mobility politics are portrayed as an interest-driven, opaque process that only purport to being democratic. Conclusions: In terms of policy recommendations, we use our findings to derive suggestions for how to increase support for green mobility policies: transparent implementation of policy measures, pragmatic policy styles and the involvement of intermediaries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the last five years, climate change has been increasingly perceived as a challenge for regional development. Compared to other nations, Germany is relatively 'safe', but the German regions are prone to different impacts of climate change; some of them might be positive but most will be negative in the long run. Strategic concepts are therefore needed to reduce the negative impacts and use the potential positive effects. Due to enforced research funding, several German regions are currently developing adaptation strategies within transdisciplinary research projects. Based on a comparative case study analysis of three of these projects, this paper looks for the benefits of resilience thinking in the context of climate change adaptation. The analysis shows that the case study regions try to increase their resilience to climate change by strengthening the properties of (1) resistance, (2) recovery and (3) creativity. But the discussion also reveals that only parts, certain sectors or subjects, of the region can increase their distinct resilience. Regional stakeholder networks as established within the case study regions can make a significant contribution to linking different sectors and levels of action. Therefore, this approach seems to be applicable for integrating the need for adaptation within the whole region. It is believed that the regionalized communication of potential climate change impacts raises awareness for climate change adaptation, helps to develop appropriate adaptation measures and encourages action. Hence, different approaches can indeed lead to more resilient structures. But the resilient society at regional level remains utopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The projected climate change signals of a five-member high resolution ensemble, based on two global climate models (GCMs: ECHAM5 and CCCma3) and two regional climate models (RCMs: CLM and WRF) are analysed in this paper (Part II of a two part paper). In Part I the performance of the models for the control period are presented. The RCMs use a two nest procedure over Europe and Germany with a final spatial resolution of 7 km to downscale the GCM simulations for the present (1971-2000) and future A1B scenario (2021-2050) time periods. The ensemble was extended by earlier simulations with the RCM REMO (driven by ECHAM5, two realisations) at a slightly coarser resolution. The climate change signals are evaluated and tested for significance for mean values and the seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation, as well as for the intensity distribution of precipitation and the numbers of dry days and dry periods. All GCMs project a significant warming over Europe on seasonal and annual scales and the projected warming of the GCMs is retained in both nests of the RCMs, however, with added small variations. The mean warming over Germany of all ensemble members for the fine nest is in the range of 0.8 and 1.3 K with an average of 1.1 K. For mean annual precipitation the climate change signal varies in the range of −2 to 9 % over Germany within the ensemble. Changes in the number of wet days are projected in the range of ±4 % on the annual scale for the future time period. For the probability distribution of precipitation intensity, a decrease of lower intensities and an increase of moderate and higher intensities is projected by most ensemble members. For the mean values, the results indicate that the projected temperature change signal is caused mainly by the GCM and its initial condition (realisation), with little impact from the RCM. For precipitation, in addition, the RCM affects the climate change signal significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A five-member ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations for Europe, with a high resolution nest over Germany, is analysed in a two-part paper: Part I (the current paper) presents the performance of the models for the control period, and Part II presents results for near future climate changes. Two different RCMs, CLM and WRF, were used to dynamically downscale simulations with the ECHAM5 and CCCma3 global climate models (GCMs), as well as the ERA40-reanalysis for validation purposes. Three realisations of ECHAM5 and one with CCCma3 were downscaled with CLM, and additionally one realisation of ECHAM5 with WRF. An approach of double nesting was used, first to an approximately 50 km resolution for entire Europe and then to a domain of approximately 7 km covering Germany and its near surroundings. Comparisons of the fine nest simulations are made to earlier high resolution simulations for the region with the RCM REMO for two ECHAM5 realisations. Biases from the GCMs are generally carried over to the RCMs, which can then reduce or worsen the biases. The bias of the coarse nest is carried over to the fine nest but does not change in amplitude, i.e. the fine nest does not add additional mean bias to the simulations. The spatial pattern of the wet bias over central Europe is similar for all CLM simulations, and leads to a stronger bias in the fine nest simulations compared to that of WRF and REMO. The wet bias in the CLM model is found to be due to a too frequent drizzle, but for higher intensities the distributions are well simulated with both CLM and WRF at the 50 and 7 km resolutions. Also the spatial distributions are close to high resolution gridded observations. The REMO model has low biases in the domain averages over Germany and no drizzle problem, but has a shift in the mean precipitation patterns and a strong overestimation of higher intensities. The GCMs perform well in simulating the intensity distribution of precipitation at their own resolution, but the RCMs add value to the distributions when compared to observations at the fine nest resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aggregated consideration of both climate and socio-economic change in a coarse spatial resolution is a central feature for scenario development in global change research. Downscaling of the supposed aggregated changes is a necessary prerequisite for the assessments of global change at the regional scale. The present paper describes the method and results of an approach to develop and to apply scenarios of socio-economic change at a sub-national level, which are consistent with global change scenarios. National and regional models of economic and demographic development are used to regionalise drivers of socio-economic change. Scenario results are subsequently applied in order to analyse the impacts of socio-economic and climatic changes on water management issues in the Elbe river basin. Starting from global IPCC-Emissions Scenarios and taking up their key points, we formulate two scenarios for the German and Czech parts of the Elbe catchment areas. We present a system of demographic and economic models, designed to consistently project socio-economic developments at a national and sub-national level and, thus, to quantitatively illustrate our scenarios. The results show that in a scenario that assumes continued globalisation and emphasis on economic growth, export orientation will result in a comparatively high share of manufacturing. Growth spreads from centres to peripheral regions. Still, at the national level, the increase in population and employment will be modest and create little additional pressure, but water stress will be considerably stronger on a regional basis, namely in metropolitan areas such as Prague, Berlin and Hamburg. In a scenario where economic goals are balanced with ecologic and social ones, growth is weaker and the weight of the service sector increases more rapidly, thus easing the driving forces for overall water demand and pollution. However, as in this scenario regional metropolitan centres develop at the cost of peripheral regions, regional development is more selective and the driving forces for potential water stress will diverge spatially. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the last five years, climate change has been increasingly perceived as a challenge for regional development. Compared to other nations, Germany is relatively 'safe', but the German regions are prone to different impacts of climate change; some of them might be positive but most will be negative in the long run. Strategic concepts are therefore needed to reduce the negative impacts and use the potential positive effects. Due to enforced research funding, several German regions are currently developing adaptation strategies within transdisciplinary research projects. Based on a comparative case study analysis of three of these projects, this paper looks for the benefits of resilience thinking in the context of climate change adaptation. The analysis shows that the case study regions try to increase their resilience to climate change by strengthening the properties of (1) resistance, (2) recovery and (3) creativity. But the discussion also reveals that only parts, certain sectors or subjects, of the region can increase their distinct resilience. Regional stakeholder networks as established within the case study regions can make a significant contribution to linking different sectors and levels of action. Therefore, this approach seems to be applicable for integrating the need for adaptation within the whole region. It is believed that the regionalized communication of potential climate change impacts raises awareness for climate change adaptation, helps to develop appropriate adaptation measures and encourages action. Hence, different approaches can indeed lead to more resilient structures. But the resilient society at regional level remains utopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the voluntary provision of public goods that is partially driven by a desire to offset for individual polluting activities. We first extend existing theory and show that offsets allow a reduction in effective environmental pollution levels while not necessarily extending the consumption of a polluting good. We further discuss the impact of an increased environmental preference on purchases of offsets and mitigation activities. Several theoretical results are then econometrically tested using a novel dataset on activities to reduce $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ emissions for the case of vehicle purchases in the U.S. and Germany. We show that environmental preference triggers the stated use of $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ offsetting and mitigation channels in both countries. However, we find strong country differences for the stated purchase of $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ offsets. While such activities are mainly triggered by a high general awareness of the climate change problem in the U.S., the perception that road travel is responsible for $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ emissions to a large extent is more important for driver's license holders in Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decade, governments in many countries began to integrate or mainstream climate change adaptation into a range of sectors. Comprehensive multi-sectoral adaptation strategies have emerged as the preferred approach across Europe. The German Adaptation Strategy is a prominent example for such a comprehensive strategy. It addresses 14 sectors with national key issues and measures, and it provides orientation for other (mainly sub-national) actors. Against this trend, the Netherlands has pursued climate change adaptation mainly through a sectorally focused approach: the Dutch Delta Programme. Building on existing programmes,Governments in many it facilitates analysis and strategy development for long-term water management at a national scale with a strong regional focus. The present paper compares the two dissimilar governance approaches mainly with regard to how and to what degree they mainstream adaptation into water and coastal zone management in selected regions. After discussing strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches, we conclude that the more common multi-sectoral approach applied in Germany and most other OECD countries is not necessarily superior to sectorally focused approaches. Although the Dutch and the German cases appear to resemble alternatives, we highlight that their combination holds the promise to compensate for each other's weaknesses. Overall, we argue that diversity in the governance of climate change adaptation is desirable because it can help to prevent that several countries fail in similar ways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the advantages of applying the concept of social-ecological resilience (SER) and the related thinking in transdisciplinary research. The theoretical reflections are exemplified by transdisciplinary research experiences using the concept of SER as a bridging concept in the field of climate-change adaptation instead of developing a new and very context-specific conceptual bridge. The findings are based on ontological reflections concerning the complex and hybrid phenomenon of climate change and the need for transdisciplinary research as well as on reflections on the performed interdisciplinary research and the exploratory transdisciplinary research approach with practitioners from the German administration. The experiences so far have shown that it was more focused on the general ideas of social-ecological resilience thinking instead of using the concept of SER as an analytical tool. We conclude that the use of a common conceptual framework in general and of social-ecological resilience thinking in particular offers tangible advantages in transdisciplinary research dealing with climate change and adaptation to the impacts of climate change. In our case, social-ecological resilience thinking helped-after translation into practical terms-to open the field for further consideration from the very beginning as well as to open the space for common creative work; to define the problem; and to choose the relevant variables to look at. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to challenge forest management and nature conservation in forests. Besides forest species, strategies and references for management and conservation will be affected. In this paper, we qualitatively analysed whether forest conservation and management practice have already adapted to the impacts of climate change and to what extent those practices reflect the adaptation strategies dealt with in international peer-reviewed literature. To this end, we conducted thirteen in-depth interviews with forest practitioners (forest officers/forest district officers) in four regions in Germany. The interview regions were selected to represent the variation in tree species composition, forest ownership regimes and vulnerability to climate change. Although interviewees claimed to take climate change and adaptation strategies into account, in practice such strategies have as yet only occasionally been implemented. Our results suggest that strategies for adapting forest management to climate change are just in the early stages of development or supplement existing strategies relating to general risk reduction or nature-orientated forest management. The extent to which climate change adaptation strategies have influenced overall management varies. This variation and the lack of specific strategies also reflect the existing uncertainties about future changes in climate and about the capacity of forest ecosystems to adapt. We conclude that, in the face of climate change, forest management will have a major influence on future biodiversity composition of forest ecosystems. Hence, a framework for conservation in forests providing recommendations which also take into account the consequences of climate change needs to be developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the purpose of coastal planning and management, especially under changing climatic conditions, enhanced knowledge about the evolution of extreme sea levels in the past, present, and future is required. This paper presents statistical analyses of high seasonal water level percentiles of 13 tide gauges in the German Bight, spanning over a period of up to 109 years throughout the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Seasonal and annual high percentile time series of water levels were investigated in comparison to the mean sea level (MSL) for changes on seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal timescales. While throughout the first half of the twentieth century extreme water levels generally followed changes in MSL, during the second half of the century, linear extreme sea level trends exceeded those in MSL in the order of 9-64 cm per century. The largest, although insignificant, contribution to the magnitude of these trends occurs in the winter season (January to March), while smaller but, due to the generally lower atmospheric variability, significant changes are observed during spring (April to June). The observed multi-decadal trends are generally in good agreement with multi-decadal trends in the corresponding percentiles of local zonal surface winds. Only small parts of the trends remain unexplained. It is suggested that these remaining trends result from modifications in the local tidal regime. For the aspects of coastal planning, the findings clarify that in the German Bight, in addition to changes in MSL, potential changes in storminess and in the tidal regime significantly contribute to the development of extreme water levels. Since these factors have influenced the characteristic of extremes throughout the recent past, they also have to be taken into account when estimating design water levels for, e.g., dikes (in a warming climate) under changing greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since several destructive floods have occurred in Germany in the last decades, it is of considerable interest and relevance ( e.g., when undertaking flood defense design) to take a closer look at the climatic factors driving the changes in flood hazard in Germany. Even if there also exist non-climatic factors controlling the flood hazard, the present paper demonstrates that climate change is one main driver responsible for the increasing number of floods. Increasing trends in temperature have been found to be ubiquitous in Germany, with impact on air humidity and changes in (intense) precipitation. Growing trends in flood prone circulation pattern and heavy precipitation are significant in many regions of Germany over a multi-decade interval and this can be translated into the rise of flood hazard and flood risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Place of the Old Synagogue is a popular place in the city center of Freiburg, a medium-sized city in southwest Germany. It is going to be redesigned soon. In this paper the impact of urban street design and surface material on human thermal comfort is analyzed using the example of the Place of the Old Synagogue. The models SkyHelios, RayMan, and ENVI-met were applied to quantify and qualify the changes. All three models are freely available. Their combination allows analysis of development in long-term conditions, as well as changes in spatial distribution of thermal comfort, as well as of heat stress in summer. Results show that the models can provide valuable information. About the Place of the Old Synagogue, quantitative results show that the period with heat stress will become longer, while the intensity of heat stress increases. The spatial results show that the most significant changes are due to changes in shading. Nevertheless, an increase in thermal stress up to 10 °C is calculated for areas, where ground coverage changes from grass to pavement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A general increase in precipitation has been observed in Germany in the last century, and potential changes in flood generation and intensity are now at the focus of interest. The aim of the paper is twofold: a) to project the future flood conditions in Germany accounting for various river regimes (from pluvial to nival-pluvial regimes) and under different climate scenarios (the high, A2, low, B1, and medium, A1B, emission scenarios) and b) to investigate sources of uncertainty generated by climate input data and regional climate models. Data of two dynamical Regional Climate Models (RCMs), REMO (REgional Model) and CCLM (Cosmo-Climate Local Model), and one statistical-empirical RCM, Wettreg (Wetterlagenbasierte Regionalisierungsmethode: weather-type based regionalization method), were applied to drive the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), which was previously validated for 15 gauges in Germany. At most of the gauges, the 95 and 99 percentiles of the simulated discharge using SWIM with observed climate data had a good agreement with the observed discharge for 1961-2000 (deviation within ±10 %). However, the simulated discharge had a bias when using RCM climate as input for the same period. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions were fitted to the annual maximum series of river runoff for each realization for the control and scenario periods, and the changes in flood generation over the whole simulation time were analyzed. The 50-year flood values estimated for two scenario periods (2021-2060, 2061-2100) were compared to the ones derived from the control period using the same climate models. The results driven by the statistical-empirical model show a declining trend in the flood level for most rivers, and under all climate scenarios. The simulations driven by dynamical models give various change directions depending on region, scenario and time period. The uncertainty in estimating high flows and, in particular, extreme floods remains high, due to differences in regional climate models, emission scenarios and multi-realizations generated by RCMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term ecological research has become a cornerstone of the scientific endeavour to better understand ecosystem responses to environmental change. This paper provides a perspective on how such research could be advanced. It emphasizes that a profound understanding of the mechanisms underlying these responses requires that records of ecologic processes be not only sufficiently long, but also collected at an appropriate temporal resolution. We base our argument on an overview of studies of climate impacts in limnic and marine ecosystems, suggesting that lakes and oceans respond to (short-term) weather conditions during critical time windows in the year. The observed response patterns are often time-lagged or driven by the crossing of thresholds in weather-related variables (such as water temperature and thermal stratification intensity). It becomes clear from the previous studies that average annual, seasonal or monthly climate data often fall short of characterizing the thermal dynamics that most organisms respond to. To illustrate such literature-based evidence using a concrete example, we compare 2 years of water temperature data from Müggelsee (Berlin, Germany) at multiple temporal scales (from hours to years). This comparison underlines the pitfalls of analysing data at resolutions not high enough to detect critical differences in environmental forcing. Current science initiatives that aim at improving the temporal resolution of long-term observatory data in aquatic systems will help to identify adequate timescales of analysis necessary for the understanding of ecosystem responses to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an integrated economic-hydrologic approach for the assessment of water management options for wetlands. It is based on a water resources modelling framework for long-term basin planning, that is augmented to model ecosystem service provision levels of wetlands as a function of water availability and water management. The approach is applied to a case study of the Spreewald wetland that is major fen wetland in the mid-reaches of the River Spree (Germany). Different management options at the wetland and basin scale are assessed in a cost-benefit analytical framework regarding their performance under projections of future climatic conditions. The cost-benefit analysis is based on the valuation of important wetland ecosystem services: grassland fodder production, recreational boating, habitat and biodiversity conservation and regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. It is found that under future climatic conditions, regulated and drained wetlands such as the Spreewald will require an increasing amount of water to maintain the current levels of benefits derived from the wetlands ecosystem services. Additional inter-basin water transfer could compensate some of the negative effects of increased water demand. However, the assessed transfer option is not economically efficient. Water management approaches that increase the intra-annual water storage in the wetland soils by higher groundwater level regulation targets are found to generate net gains in benefits compared to the current water management without any increase of the water supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study deals with regional climate change in five low mountain areas in Eastern Germany and assesses the awareness of tourism professionals towards climate change, its impact on winter tourism and adaptation options. Favourable conditions for winter tourism decreased over the last decades in the Saxon low mountain ranges. A change from predominantly snow-based to a wider variety of winter tourism options appears indispensible as climate models project continuing warming. Diversifying touristic options provides opportunities to develop new business fields and to attract new target groups. This paper reveals obstacles and opportunities to adapt and develop winter tourism in the central European low mountain ranges and to increase the competitiveness of regional tourism. A survey explored the current awareness of representatives of most of the Saxon downhill skiing areas and of selected winter tourism municipalities towards climate change and its implications on their business. Awareness is essential to successfully implement adaptation measures. About half of the interviewees were not aware of the regional changes in natural snow conditions projected for the next 15-20 years. Nevertheless, the majority recognized climate change as a serious issue. Yet, stakeholders repeatedly emphasized their uncertainty about related scientific facts. They attributed their perception to mass media reports that suggest a lack of scientific consensus on climate change issues. Adaptation options for slope-based and general winter tourism are developed and presented, involving ideas of the interviewees. To successfully move towards adaptation, supply and marketing of alternative offers need to be strengthened. A survey of tourist expectations is planned to ensure a successful implementation of new (winter) touristic offers in the Saxon mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate, climate change and tourism all interact. Part of the public discussion about climate change focusses on the tourism sector, with direct and indirect impacts being of equally high relevance. Climate and tourism are closely linked. Thus, climate is a very decisive factor in choices both of destination and of type of journey (active holidays, wellness, and city tours) in the tourism sector. However, whether choices about destinations or types of trip will alter with climate change is difficult to predict. Future climates can be simulated and projected, and the tendencies of climate parameters can be estimated using global and regional climate models. In this paper, the focus is on climate change in the mountainous regions of southwest Germany - the Black Forest. The Black Forest is one of the low mountain ranges where both winter and summer tourism are vulnerable to climate change due to its southern location; the strongest climatic changes are expected in areas covering the south and southwest of Germany. Moreover, as the choice of destination is highly dependent on good weather, a climatic assessment for tourism is essential. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate climatic changes in mountainous regions during summer, especially for tourism and recreation. The assessment method was based on human-biometeorology as well as tourism-climatologic approaches. Regional climate simulations based on the regional climate model REMO were used for tourism-related climatic analyses. Emission scenarios A1B and B1 were considered for the time period 2021 to 2050, compared to the 30-year base period of 1971-2000, particularly for the warm period of the year, defined here as the months of March-November. In this study, we quantified the frequency, but not the means, of climate parameters. The study results show that global and regional warming is reflected in an increase in annual mean air temperature, especially in autumn. Changes in the spring show a slight negative trend, which is in line with the trend of a decrease in physiologically equivalent temperature as well as in thermal comfort conditions. Due to the rising air temperature, heat stress as well as sultry conditions are projected to become more frequent, affecting human health and recreation, especially at lower lying altitudes. The tops of the mountains and higher elevated areas still have the advantage of offering comfortable climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract  The sustained climate change is going to modify the geographic distribution, the seasonal transmission gate and the intensity of the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria or the bluetongue disease. These diseases occur nowadays at higher latitudes or altitudes. A further rise in ambient temperature and rainfall will extend the duration of the season in which mosquito vectors are transmitting pathogens. The parasites transmitted by the vectors also benefit from increasing temperatures, as both their reproduction and development are then accelerated, too. Thus, it seemed prudent to examine potential effects on the seasonal transmission gate due to the ongoing and predicted climate changes. Lower Saxony (northwest Germany) is a former malaria region with highest incidences of Anopheles atroparvus and tertian malaria along the coastal zones before malaria had finally become extinct in the early 1950s. Nevertheless, the Anopheles mosquitoes which transmit the malaria pathogens have still been present in Lower Saxony up to now. This together with the climate change-related implications gave reason to investigate whether a new autochthonous transmission could take place if the malaria pathogen is introduced again in Lower Saxony. Thus, the potential spatial and temporal structure of temperature-driven malaria transmissions was mapped using the basic reproduction rate (R 0) and measured and predicted air temperatures (1947–1960, 1961–1990, 1985–2004, 2020, 2060, 2100, each best case and worst case scenario). This paper focuses on both the summarizing of the results from this risk modelling approach and on the conclusions to be drawn. The recommendations highlight the need to link vector monitoring as one of the key elements of an epidemiological monitoring with the environmental monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated by the high abatement costs of the Kyoto Protocol for Germany, this paper is estimating the economic impact of global warming on agriculture in that country. The hedonic approach is used as theoretical background. Stating that land prices are -- among others -- determined by climatic factors, this approach can consequently be used to value global warming. To avoid a priori restrictions stemming from functional forms, the land price function is modeled as quadratic Box--Cox function that nests a wide range of specifications. In a second step, the estimated results are used to forecast the impact of climate change. The results indicate that German farmers will be winners of climate change in the short run, with maximum gains occurring at a temperature increase of +0.6°C against current levels. In the long run, there may be losses from global warming. However, the net present value from climate change is under the most probable scenarios positive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Because of global climate change, extreme flood events are expected to increase in quantity and intensity in the upcoming decades. In catchments affected by ore mining, flooding leads to the deposition of fine sediments enriched in trace metal(loid)s. Depending on their concentration, trace metal(loid)s can be a health hazard. Therefore, exposure of the local population to flood sediments, either by ingestion (covering direct ingestion and consuming food grown on these sediments) or via inhalation of dried sediments contributing to atmospheric particulate matter, is of concern. Results: The extreme flood of July 2021 deposited large amounts of sediment across the town of Eschweiler (western Germany), with the inundation area exceeding previously mapped extreme flood limits (HQextreme). These sediments are rich in fine material (with the < 63 µm fraction making up 32% to 96%), which either can stick to the skin and be ingested or inhaled. They are moderately to heavily enriched in Zn > Cu > Pb > Cd > Sn compared to local background concentrations. The concentrations of Zn, Pb, Cd, Cu, and As in flood sediments exceed international trigger action values. A simple assessment of inhalation and ingestion by humans reveals that the tolerable daily intake is exceeded for Pb. Despite the enrichment of other trace elements like Zn, Cu, Cd, and Sn, they presumably do not pose a risk to human well-being. However, exposure to high dust concentrations may be a health risk. Conclusions: In conclusion, flood sediments, especially in catchments impacted by mining, may pose a risk to the affected public. Hence, we propose to (I) improve the flood mapping by incorporating potential pollution sources; (II) extend warning messages to incorporate specific guidance; (III) use appropriate clean-up strategies in the aftermath of such flooding events; (IV) provide medical support, and (V) clue the public and medical professionals in on this topic accordingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines how people perceive possible pathways of a societal transition towards less carbon intensive means of energy production and use. Data were collected with questionnaires among samples of university students in Norway (N = 106) and Germany (N = 142). Participants selected from a set of 15 motives those which they considered to be strongly associated with each of 25 pathways, including examples such as public transportation and nuclear power. Participants also rated the effectiveness of each single pathway, that is, their perceived impact on climate change. Results indicate that the various pathways were associated with specific motives; for example, individual actions such as taking public transportation were closely associated with a self-restraint motive, pathways such as nuclear power and market strategies such as carbon offsets were closely associated with motives supporting free market and progress, and technological solutions such as solar panels and hydro power were associated with the motive for sufficient energy supply. The German and the Norwegian sample did not differ markedly in which pathways were associated with which motives; nor did effectiveness ratings for pathways differ between samples. Solar panels, wind farms, and hydropower were on average regarded as having a mitigating impact on climate change, whereas nuclear power was on average considered to have no mitigating impact. The findings are discussed in the context of public engagement with several of the suggested pathways, noting differences in perceptual patterns across samples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using longitudinal data from two household surveys in 2017 and 2019, we analyze attitudes toward climate change and climate policy in Germany. We find that nearly 20% of respondents state that they do not believe in climate change, and more than 30% are doubtful that climate change is mainly caused by human action. Moreover, we detect that political orientation is strongly correlated with these attitudes, as respondents inclined to Germany's right-wing populist party AfD are substantially more climate-skeptical and object to climate policies more frequently. Even though our results show that climate change skepticism increased between 2017 and 2019, coinciding with the rise of the Fridays for Future movement, AfD voters did not move further away from the average respondent during this period. Moreover, fixed-effects estimations show that the climate attitudes of voters who switch to AfD during the study period hardly change, indicating that the orientation towards the AfD does not change climate attitudes. Instead, AfD might attract people who were already climate skeptical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest dieback due to climate change has severe consequences for the sensitive environments of mountain forests which provide important ecosystem services for local communities, lowlands inhabitants, and visitors. However, this phenomenon is sometimes hard to identify for the lay public as it can manifest as a slow-onset phenomenon with rather inconspicuous signals or as large-scale disturbances like in the case of bark beetle outbreaks. The aim of this contribution is to analyze whether lay people perceive climate change-induced forest dieback in the landscape or not and what kind of damage they identify. To address this issue, we carried out a cross-comparison case-study in two mountain areas in France and Germany. To analyze the data, we introduce an innovative variable clustering approach to identify different groups of respondents based on their perception of climate change and forest dieback. Five groups of respondents—illustrating different degrees of worry—were identified in each case study: the non-alarmist, the carefree, the least informed, the worried, and the alarmist. These results show that both phenomena are not perceived as distant but as happening here and now; and that their perceptions are influenced by local contexts and personal experiences. We finally show that public perception of forest dieback has influenced the agenda setting on the enactment of new forest policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A fuzzy classification scheme that results in physically interpretable meteorological patterns associated with rainfall generation is applied to classify homogeneous regions of boreal summer rainfall anomalies in Germany. Four leading homogeneous regions are classified, representing the western, southeastern, eastern, and northern/northwestern parts of Germany with some overlap in the central parts of Germany. Variations of the sea level pressure gradient across Europe, e.g., between the continental and maritime regions, is the major phenomenon that triggers the time development of the rainfall regions by modulating wind patterns and moisture advection. Two regional climate models (REMO and CCLM4) were used to investigate the capability of climate models to reproduce the observed summer rainfall regions. Both regional climate models (RCMs) were once driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and once by the MPI-ESM general circulation model (GCM). Overall, the RCMs exhibit good performance in terms of the regionalization of summer rainfall in Germany; though the goodness-of-match with the rainfall regions/patterns from observational data is low in some cases and the REMO model driven by MPI-ESM fails to reproduce the western homogeneous rainfall region. Under future climate change, virtually the same leading modes of summer rainfall occur, suggesting that the basic synoptic processes associated with the regional patterns remain the same over Germany. We have also assessed the added value of bias-correcting the MPI-ESM driven RCMs using a simple linear scaling approach. The bias correction does not significantly alter the identification of homogeneous rainfall regions and, hence, does not improve their goodness-of-match compared to the observed patterns, except for the one case where the original RCM output completely fails to reproduce the observed pattern. While the linear scaling method improves the basic statistics of precipitation, it does not improve the simulated meteorological patterns represented by the precipitation regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More than 30% of Germany's final energy consumption currently results from thermal energy for heating and cooling in the building sector. One possibility to achieve significant greenhouse gas emission savings in space heating and cooling is the application of aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) systems. Hence, this study maps the spatial technical potential of shallow low-temperature ATES systems in Germany. Important criteria for efficient ATES operation considered in this assessment encompass suitable hydrogeological conditions, such as aquifer productivity and groundwater flow velocity, and balanced space heating and cooling demands. The latter is approximated by the ratio of heating and cooling degree days, which is incorporated as a time-dependent criterion to also evaluate the impact of climate change on the ATES potential. The hydrogeological and climatic criteria are combined within a spatial analysis revealing that, regarding the upcoming decades, about 54% of the investigated German area are very well or well suitable for ATES applications, largely concentrating on three regions: the North German Basin, the Upper Rhine Graben and the South German Molasse Basin. Considering time-dependent climatic conditions, the very well or well suitable areas will increase by 13% for the time period 2071–2100. This is mostly caused by a large relative area increase of the very well suitable regions due to an increasing cooling demand in the future. The sensitivity of the very well and well suitable regions to the criteria weightings is relatively low. Accounting for existing water protection zones shows a reduction of the country-wide share of very well or well suitable areas by around 11%. Nevertheless, the newly created potential map reveals a huge potential for shallow low-temperature ATES systems in Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The purpose of this study was to describe and analyse the most severe casualties from the flash flood and mudslides occurring on 14 July 2021 in Germany, focusing on patients who were treated in the closest and largest level I trauma centre in the region the disaster occurred. Methods: A single-centre retrospective study design was employed, and all patients treated because of the flooding and mudslides who needed inpatient treatment were documented. Data on each patient's demographic characteristics, type of injury, number of surgeries, duration of hospitalisation, operation time, revision rate, injury severity score (ISS), and complications were collected. The primary outcome measure was status at discharge. Results: Within the first week after the flood, a total of 63 patients were documented. Forty-one patients were treated on an outpatient basis in the emergency unit, and 22 patients were hospitalised. Of those hospitalised, 15 patients needed surgical treatment in the operation theatre. The most common injuries were fractures of the lower extremity (n = 7) and soft tissue wounds (n = 4). Overall, 20 surgeries were performed; the mean hospital stay was 7.2 ± 6.4 days, and the mean ISS was 5.7 ± 2.7. Conclusion: The July 2021 flood disaster was one of the largest in German history. The included patients showed complex injuries of various types. Because of the effects of climate change, orthopaedic surgeons might face higher numbers of casualties affected by natural disasters. Learning more about the management and profile of these injuries can become a future challenge for orthopaedic and trauma surgeons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nationally determined contributions were at the core of the Paris Agreement for the global response to climate change. However, with the geographical separation of production and consumption caused by international trade, traditional trade statistics can no longer accurately reflect the flows of economic value and carbon emissions between countries, which will affect the participation and implementation of global climate policies. Based on a multi-regional input–output model, we measured the embodied carbon flows of bilateral trade between developed countries represented by Germany and the US, discussed the decoupling relationship between embodied carbon and export-led growth, and finally used structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to show how the driving factors affect embodied carbon flow in German-US trade. We found that from 2000 to 2014, embodied carbon in German-US trade showed an overall downward trend. While Germany maintained a trade surplus with the US, it also maintained an embodied carbon surplus. In addition, embodied carbon and value added in Germany's exports to the US were mostly strongly decoupled, while in US exports to Germany were mostly weakly decoupled, and the two-way decoupling had been weakened in the later stage. The results of SDA showed that changes in carbon intensity clearly inhibited bilateral carbon flows, while trade scale effects promoted it. This study provided an opportunity to use trade to achieve carbon reduction and increased the possibility of providing a convenient and feasible market mechanism for emission reduction through international partnerships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study we investigate how climate change will directly influence the groundwater resources in Germany during the 21st century. We apply a machine learning groundwater level prediction approach based on convolutional neural networks to 118 sites well distributed over Germany to assess the groundwater level development under different RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 8.5). We consider only direct meteorological inputs, while highly uncertain anthropogenic factors such as groundwater extractions are excluded. While less pronounced and fewer significant trends can be found under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, we detect significantly declining trends of groundwater levels for most of the sites under RCP8.5, revealing a spatial pattern of stronger decreases, especially in the northern and eastern part of Germany, emphasizing already existing decreasing trends in these regions. We can further show an increased variability and longer periods of low groundwater levels during the annual cycle towards the end of the century. Future groundwater levels in Germany are expected to decrease considerably under the influence of changing climate, exacerbating the trends and patterns already occurring. Simulations also show substantially reduced effects under stringent mitigation scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The increasing frequency of extreme weather events across the globe, the intensifying international debates about the political urgency to mitigate climate change, as well as the respective more action demanding social movements have caused a significant increase in climate change awareness among the population. Little research, however, has systematically analyzed the behavioral impact of this development. Using Germany as a case study, we therefore scrutinize whether the recent increase in climate change awareness triggered mainly changes in public perceptions concerning environmental and sustainability issues or whether it has led to sustainable behavioral shifts. Based on previous research, we considered two routes through which an increase in climate change awareness can instigate changes: (a) directly by leading to behavioral changes towards more sustainable consumption decisions, or (b) indirectly by exerting pressure on the political process. Results: The analyzed data in the three consumption sectors of mobility, food consumption and housing confirm the continuing prevalence of an attitude–behavior gap: although there is a broad, strongly positive attitude towards climate protection and increasingly high problem awareness of climate change, so far this attitude does not immediately translate into notable behavioral changes. With regard to effects on political agenda setting, however, the effects are much more immediate. The results confirm strong pressure on the political process mainly through shifts in voter behavior. Conclusions: The results show that the increase in climate change awareness has spurred dynamics in the debate around climate change both among the population and in the political realm. Fueled by the intense media coverage of the Fridays For Future movement and related activities, a snowball effect has been set off, opening a window of opportunity for significant shifts towards more effective and rigorous climate policies. Politicians and decision-makers now have the opportunity to implement sustainability measures with strong support of the population, even if these imply higher costs. Whether there will be further shifts in the current lifestyle towards a more sustainable one, lifestyle changes should be carefully monitored in the coming years, as relevant data are only now becoming available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals—as Western European international tourist demand falls—but later increase numbers—as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: tourism shifts south. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountain lakes are increasingly impacted by a series of both local and global disturbances. The present study reveals the eutrophication history of a remote subalpine lake (Oberer Soiernsee, Northern Alps, Germany), triggered by deforestation, alpine pasturing, hut construction, tourism and atmospheric deposition, and identifies the intertwined consequences of on-going global warming on the lake's ecosystem. The primary objective was to disentangle the various direct and indirect impacts of these multiple stressors via down-core analyses. Our multi-proxy approach included subfossil diatom assemblages, carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios and subfossil pigments from dated sediments. Shifts within the diatom assemblages were related to variations in trophic state, lake transparency, water temperature and thermal stratification. The organic carbon isotope (δ13Corg) records, the diatom valve density and the pigment concentrations documented the development of primary production and composition. Total nitrogen isotope values (δ15N) are more likely to reflect the history of atmospheric nitrogen pollution than lake-internal processes, also mirrored by the decoupling of δ15N and δ13Corg trends. The composition of sedimentary pigments allowed a differentiation between planktonic and benthic primary production. Concordant trends of all indicators suggested that the lake ecosystem passed a climatic threshold promoted by local and long-distance atmospheric nutrient loadings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lightning climate change projections show large uncertainties caused by limited empirical knowledge and strong assumptions inherent to coarse-grid climate modeling. This study addresses the latter issue by implementing and applying the lightning potential index parameterization (LPI) into a fine-grid convection-permitting regional climate model (CPM). This setup takes advantage of the explicit representation of deep convection in CPMs and allows for process-oriented LPI inputs such as vertical velocity within convective cells and coexistence of microphysical hydrometeor types, which are known to contribute to charge separation mechanisms. The LPI output is compared to output from a simpler flash rate parameterization, namely the CAPE × PREC parameterization, applied in a non-CPM on a coarser grid. The LPI's implementation into the regional climate model COSMO-CLM successfully reproduces the observed lightning climatology, including its latitudinal gradient, its daily and hourly probability distributions, and its diurnal and annual cycles. Besides, the simulated temperature dependence of lightning reflects the observed dependency. The LPI outperforms the CAPE × PREC parameterization in all applied diagnostics. Based on this satisfactory evaluation, we used the LPI to a climate change projection under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the domain under investigation centered over Germany, the LPI projects a decrease of 4.8 % in flash rate by the end of the century, in opposition to a projected increase of 17.4 % as projected using the CAPE × PREC parameterization. The future decrease of LPI occurs mostly during the summer afternoons and is related to (i) a change in convection occurrence and (ii) changes in the microphysical mixing. The two parameterizations differ because of different convection occurrences in the CPM and non-CPM and because of changes in the microphysical mixing, which is only represented in the LPI lightning parameterization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 foresees that Member States assess conditions and potential developments of ecosystems under climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition. This combination of environmental impacts has never been modelled for the German territory before. Therefore, the aim of the presented dynamic modelling of soil parameters under the influence of changing atmospheric nitrogen deposition with simultaneous climate change at representative sites in Germany was to derive knowledge about the expected development of ecosystem conditions up to a possible change of the respective site-specific current ecosystem type. The dynamic modelling was performed with the Very Simple Dynamic soil model. The selection of 15 modelling sites regarded the availability of data from environmental monitoring programmes routinely operated by public institutions and the aptitude of data for parametrising the soil model. The most important input data are time series of nitrogen and acid deposition as well as time series of the relevant climatic-ecological parameters. The simulation period covered the years 1920–2070. Results: There are no continuous linear correlations between the level of acidifying or eutrophying inputs and the course of soil parameter values. The step-like courses result from the resilience of the ecosystems within certain parameter ranges. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition has led to nitrogen saturation at 14 of 15 sites selected for modelling. Currently, no linear (negative) correlation between nitrogen deposition and carbon/nitrogen ratio could be established at these sites any more. An increase in the N-content in the soil was only slight, if at all. On the other hand, the nitrate concentration in the leachate increases in correlation to the N deposition. A clear (negative) correlation was found for the dependence of the C/N ratio on the temperature development in connection with climate change. The predicted air temperature rise until 2070 will also cause a decrease of the carbon content in the future, caused by the increasing activity of decomposing soil organisms. Thus, the drastic decrease of the C/N ratio at all of the study sites is due to the significant decrease in the C content. The validation shows that the dynamic modelling of abiotic site parameters has delivered plausible results at the investigated sites. The applicability of the results could be demonstrated. Thus, the evaluation of the time series of soil and climate parameters resulted in forest ecosystem types that are capable of self-regeneration in the future under the conditions of air pollutant inputs and climate change. Conclusions: The dynamic modelling of soil parameters under the influence of atmospheric nitrogen deposition and of climate change enables to transparently rank the potential development of ecosystem conditions up to a possible extinction of the current ecosystem type. Thus, the soil modelling approach presented contributes to the implementation of the European Biodiversity Strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The decision on how to manage a forest under climate change is subject to deep and dynamic uncertainties. The classic approach to analyze this decision adopts a predefined strategy, tests its robustness to uncertainties, but neglects their dynamic nature (i.e., that decision-makers can learn and adjust the strategy). Accounting for learning through dynamic adaptive strategies (DAS) can drastically improve expected performance and robustness to deep uncertainties. The benefits of considering DAS hinge on identifying critical uncertainties and translating them to detectable signposts to signal when to change course. This study advances the DAS approach to forest management as a novel application domain by showcasing methods to identify potential signposts for adaptation on a case study of a classic European beech management strategy in South-West Germany. We analyze the strategy's robustness to uncertainties about model forcings and parameters. We then identify uncertainties that critically impact its economic and ecological performance by confronting a forest growth model with a large sample of time-varying scenarios. The case study results illustrate the potential of designing DAS for forest management and provide insights on key uncertainties and potential signposts. Specifically, economic uncertainties are the main driver of the strategy's robustness and impact the strategy's performance more critically than climate uncertainty. Besides economic metrics, the forest stand's past volume growth is a promising signpost metric. It mirrors the effect of both climatic and model parameter uncertainty. The regular forest inventory and planning cycle provides an ideal basis for adapting a strategy in response to these signposts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We quantify the change in extreme high sea level (ESL) statistics in the German Bight under rising CO 2 concentrations by downscaling a large ensemble of global climate model simulations using the regionally coupled climate system model REMO-MPIOM. While the model setup combines a regionally high resolution with the benefits of a global ocean model, the large ensemble size of 32 members allows the estimation of high return levels with much lower uncertainty. We find that ESLs increase with atmospheric CO 2 levels, even without considering a rise in the background sea level (BSL). Local increases of up to 0.5 m are found along the western shorelines of Germany and Denmark for ESLs of 20–50 years return periods, while higher return levels remain subject to sampling uncertainty. This ESL response is related to a cascade of an enhanced large-scale activity along the North Atlantic storm belt to a subsequent local increase in predominantly westerly wind speed extremes, while storms of the major West-Northwest track type gain importance. The response is seasonally opposite: summer ESLs and the strength of its drivers decrease in magnitude, contrasting the response of the higher winter ESLs, which governs the annual response. These results have important implications for coastal protection. ESLs do not only scale with the expected BSL rise, but become even more frequent, as preindustrial 50-year return levels could be expected to occur almost every year by the end of the century. The magnitude of the relative change in ESL statistics is hereby up to half of the expected rise in BSL, depending on the location. Changes in the highest extremes are subject to large multidecadal variations and remain uncertain, thus potentially demanding even further safety measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate climate change impacts transferred via foreign trade to Germany, a country that is heavily engaged in international trade. Specifically, we look at temperature changes and the associated labour productivity losses at a global scale until 2050. We assess the effects on Germany's imports and exports by means of a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. To address uncertainty, we account for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) using projections from five global climate models. We find that average annual labour productivity for high intensity work declines by up to 31% for RCP4.5 (and up to 38% for RCP8.5) in Southeast Asia and the Middle East by 2050, all relative to a 2050 baseline without climate change. As a consequence, for RCP8.5, Germany's imports from regions outside Europe are lower by up to 2.46%, while imports from within Europe partly compensate this reduction. Also, Germany's exports to regions outside Europe are lower, but total exports increase by up to 0.16% due to higher exports to EU regions. Germany's GDP and welfare, however, are negatively affected with a loss of up to − 0.41% and − 0.46%, respectively. The results highlight that overall positive trade effects for Germany constitute a comparative improvement rather than an absolute gain with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we augment the traditional travel cost approach with contingent behavior data for coastal recreation. The objective is to analyze the welfare implications of future changes in the conditions of the Baltic Sea due to climate change and eutrophication. Adding to the literature, we assess the symmetricity of welfare effects caused by improvements and deteriorations in environmental conditions for a set of quality attributes. Responses are derived from identical online surveys in Finland, Germany and Latvia. We estimate recreational benefits using linear and non-linear negative binomial random-effects models. The calculated annual consumer surpluses are considerably influenced by the magnitude of the environmental changes in the three countries. We also observe asymmetries in the effects of environmental improvements and deteriorations on the expected number of visits. In particular, the results indicate that deteriorations lead to larger or more significant impacts than improvements in the case of blue-green algal blooms and algae onshore for Finland, water clarity for Germany, and water clarity and blue-green algal blooms for Latvia. For the remaining attributes, the effects are ambiguous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A warmer climate is projected for mid-Europe, with less precipitation in summer, but with intensified extremes of precipitation and near-surface temperature. However, the extent and magnitude of such changes are associated with creditable uncertainty because of the limitations of model resolution and parameterizations. Here, we present the results of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations for Germany integrated with the COSMO-CLM using a horizontal grid spacing of 1.3 km, and additional 4.5- and 7-km simulations with convection parameterized. Of particular interest is how the temperature and precipitation fields and their extremes depend on the horizontal resolution for current and future climate conditions. The spatial variability of precipitation increases with resolution because of more realistic orography and physical parameterizations, but values are overestimated in summer and over mountain ridges in all simulations compared to observations. The spatial variability of temperature is improved at a resolution of 1.3 km, but the results are cold-biased, especially in summer. The increase in resolution from 7/4.5 km to 1.3 km is accompanied by less future warming in summer by 1 ∘C. Modeled future precipitation extremes will be more severe, and temperature extremes will not exclusively increase with higher resolution. Although the differences between the resolutions considered (7/4.5 km and 1.3 km) are small, we find that the differences in the changes in extremes are large. High-resolution simulations require further studies, with effective parameterizations and tunings for different topographic regions. Impact models and assessment studies may benefit from such high-resolution model results, but should account for the impact of model resolution on model processes and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of people exposed to natural hazards has grown steadily over recent decades, mainly due to increasing exposure in hazard-prone areas. In the future, climate change could further enhance this trend. Still, empirical and comprehensive insights into individual recovery from natural hazards are largely lacking, hampering efforts to increase societal resilience. Drawing from a sample of 710 residents affected by flooding across Germany in June 2013, we empirically explore a wide range of variables possibly influencing self-reported recovery, including flood-event characteristics, the circumstances of the recovery process, socio-economic characteristics, and psychological factors, using multivariate statistics. We found that the amount of damage and other flood-event characteristics such as inundation depth are less important than socio-economic characteristics (e.g., sex or health status) and psychological factors (e.g., risk aversion and emotions). Our results indicate that uniform recovery efforts focusing on areas that were the most affected in terms of physical damage are insufficient to account for the heterogeneity in individual recovery results. To increase societal resilience, aid and recovery efforts should better address the long-term psychological effects of floods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate forecasts project a global increase in extreme weather events, but information on the consequences for ecosystems is scarce. Of particular significance for lakes are severe storms that can influence biogeochemical processes and biological communities by disrupting the vertical thermal structure during periods of stratification. An exceptional storm passing over northern Germany in July 2011 provided an opportunity to assess the consequences and underlying mechanisms of such extreme events on the interplay between the physics and ecological characteristics of a deep, nutrient-poor lake. Wind speeds were among the most extreme on record. A suite of variables measured throughout the event consistently indicates that a cascade of processes pushed the clear-water lake into an exceptionally turbid state. Specifically, thermocline deepening by the storm-entrained cyanobacteria of a deep chlorophyll maximum located at about 8 m depth into the surface mixed layer. Released from light limitation, intense photosynthesis of the cyanobacteria boosted primary production, increased algal biomass, raised the pH and thus induced massive calcite precipitation to a level never observed within three decades of lake monitoring. As a consequence, water transparency dropped from 6.5 to 2.1 m, the minimum on record for 40 years, and the euphotic zone shrank by about 8 m for several weeks. These results show that cyanobacterial blooms not only are promoted by climate warming, but can also be triggered by extreme storms. Clear-water lakes developing a deep chlorophyll maximum appear to be particularly at risk in the future, if such events become more intense or frequent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author reflects on the involvement of science with politics not only in Great Britain but also in other countries. He notes that such issues tackled include scientists' interactions with industry, commerce and media and resisting the politicization of climate-change research. He also states that the consequences of imagining that science can remain aloof from politics became apparent in Germany in 1933 upon the emergence of the consensus view that politics was an unseemly money business.