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Climate change might affect energy production and therefore the energy security of a country or region. This situation may impact renewable energy sources such as hydro power, leading to consequences on energy transition strategies. This might be critical in sensitive regions to climate change, one of them being the Caribe and northern South America. Since there are numerous energy systems based on sensitive technologies worldwide, it is necessary to introduce techniques to analyze the effects of climate change on different possible energy transition paths. The goal of this study is to develop and assess a method to analyze one of the most critical effects faced by climate change for societies worldwide: the sensitivity of the energy systems to climate change. This is especially critical in developing countries, in locations where temperatures will strongly increase in the following years. To assess this effect, this study proposes a vulnerability index (VI) to evaluate the vulnerability of an on-grid electricity system to climate change at the national and regional scales. This index was assessed using a Monte-Carlo method for uncertainty. The case of Colombia, a country with a system based on hydropower (> 70%) is used to illustrate the method. VI is based on variables related to climate change, the energy matrix, and vulnerability. Results show that the regions with the larger vulnerability correspond to the more energy-demanding ones. The VI for these regions is greater than 50% of the maximum possible vulnerability; meanwhile, the vulnerability of the whole country was estimated as 43%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The opportunity for renewable energy production in developing countries is a theme of high relevance within the context of climate change. In this paper we explore the production of electricity in Brazil and investigate the potential for sustainable biomass energy production. This is explored in a GIS system (1) establishing the demand centers or regions (energy demand factor), (2) checking if they can be served by existing capacity and transmission (transmission lines factor), (3) deciding on new generation and whether it will an island or the main grid connection (power plants factor), (4) locating the power plant subject to the potential biomass supply accepting the environmental constraints (land use and environmental preservation factors). Results show that even though large areas have a potential for biomass energy production, the lack of investments in technological improvements and changes in the system status quo result in a system that does not progress towards of becoming a cleaner, safer and less dependent on climatic factors. We conclude that biomass has the potential to grow as a source of renewable and clean energy. This potential can be explored by conserving respecting the environment and encouraging the creation of decentralized systems, thereby making Brazil a key player in the climate change targets in the coming years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]