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Aim Location Method Results Conclusions The Hemiptera is the fifth‐largest insect order but among non‐native insect species is approximately tied with the Coleoptera as the most species‐rich insect order (Hemiptera comprise 20% more species than in world fauna). This over‐representation may result from high propagule pressure or from high species invasiveness. Here, we assess the reasons for over‐representation in this group by analysing geographical, temporal and taxonomic variation in numbers of historical invasions.Global.We assembled lists of historical Hemiptera invasions in 12 world regions, countries or islands (Australia, Chile, Europe, New Zealand, North America, South Africa, South Korea, Japan and the Galapagos, Hawaiian, Okinawa and Ogasawara Islands) and border interception data from nine countries (Australia, Canada, European Union, United Kingdom, Hawaii, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, USA mainland and South Africa). Using these data, we identified hemipteran superfamilies that are historically over‐represented among established non‐native species, and superfamilies that are over‐represented among arrivals (proxied by interceptions). We also compared temporal patterns of establishments among hemipteran suborders and among regions.Across all regions, patterns of over‐ and under‐representation were similar. The Aphidoidea, Coccoidea, Aleyrodoidea, Cimicoidea and Phylloxeroida were over‐represented among non‐native species. These same superfamilies were not consistently over‐represented among intercepted species indicating that propagule pressure does not completely explain the tendency of some Hemiptera to be over‐represented among invasions. Asexual reproduction is common in most over‐represented superfamilies and this trait may be key to explaining high invasion success in these superfamilies.We conclude that both propagule pressure and species invasiveness are drivers of high invasion success in the Sternorrhyncha suborder (aphids, scales, whiteflies) and this group plays a major role in the exceptional invasion success of Hemiptera in general. The high historical rates of invasion by Sternorrhyncha species provide justification for biosecurity measure focusing on exclusion of this group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Invasions of non‐native insects can have substantial impacts on agriculture, forestry, human health and biodiversity with considerable economic and environmental consequences. To understand the causes of these invasions, it is important to quantify the relative influence of principal drivers such as international imports and climatic effects. Location: North America, Chile, Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. Time Period: 1881–2020. Methods: To evaluate the relative contributions of various factors in explaining global variation in numbers of non‐native insect establishments in different world regions, we conducted two multivariate regression analyses to quantify temporal changes in family‐level composition and native ranges of established non‐native species in several world regions. Results: There were temporal changes in the family‐level composition of non‐native species assemblages. Prior to 1900, invasions were dominated by scale insects, subsequently shifting to a more diverse set of species, except in North America, which had relatively small compositional change over time compared to other regions. Spatial and temporal variation in the composition of established species was associated with differences in the origin of imports and climatic factors, each explaining 26.3% and 27.4% of the total variation, respectively. The analysis of native ranges of non‐native species indicated that there was no consistent temporal variation across all regions. Established species in New Zealand were predominantly native to Australasia and species in North America and Chile were mainly from Europe. Non‐native species in Europe mainly originated from the Nearctic region while those in Japan and Australia generally originated from multiple regions. Climatic factors in the destination regions had a primary effect (66.3%) on variation in the native range of established species, although imports also had substantial effects (45.4%). Main Conclusions: Geographical variation in climate and imports act together as drivers of establishment success for non‐native insects in all six regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trees growing outside their native geographic ranges often exhibit exceptional growth and survival due in part to the lack of co‐evolved natural enemies that may limit their spread and suppress population growth. While most non‐native trees tend to accumulate natural enemies over time, it remains uncertain which host and insect characteristics affect these novel associations and whether novel associations follow patterns of assembly similar to those of native hosts. Here, we used a dataset of insect–host tree associations in Europe to model which native insect species are paired with which native tree species, and then tested the model on its ability to predict which native insects are paired with which non‐native trees. We show that native and non‐native tree species closely related to known hosts are more likely to be hosts themselves, but that native host geographic range size, insect feeding guild, and sampling effort similarly affect insect associations. Our model had a strong ability to predict which insect species utilize non‐native trees as hosts, but evolutionarily isolated tree species posed the greatest challenge to the model. These results demonstrate that insect–host associations can be reliably predicted, regardless of whether insect and host trees have co‐evolved, and provide a framework for predicting future pest threats using a select number of easily attainable tree and insect characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a long history of humans either intentionally or accidentally moving plant species to areas outside of their native ranges. In novel environments, populations of many of these plant species exhibit explosive population growth and spread, in part due to the absence of coevolved enemies such as herbivorous insects. However, over time such enemies can 'catch up' with their host and re‐establish host–herbivore relationships. Though this phenomenon has been documented in several systems, little evidence exists on how this re‐assembly of enemies results in increased levels of herbivory. In this study we focus on the case of black locust Robinia pseudoacacia, a sparsely populated tree species when growing on undisturbed sites in its limited native range in the eastern USA but a highly invasive species, especially in disturbed environments, in most temperate world regions. We recorded folivore damage on invasive populations in five continents, including both native and invaded portions of North America. Here, we investigated 1) how total foliage damage and damage caused by different groups of folivores differs among regions; 2) how seasonal development of folivore damage differs among regions; 3) how folivory varies with distance from the native range within North America; and 4) how the number of recorded specialist folivores correlates with the amount of folivory. We observed strong differences among regions in the amount and type of folivore damage, with the native range experiencing the highest damage, especially that caused by the native chrysomelid beetle Odontota dorsalis, which is limited to the native and invaded North American range of R. pseudoacacia. Among world regions, total folivory is negatively associated with the distance from the native range and positively associated with the number of established R. pseudoacacia specialist folivore species, supporting the hypothesis that global patterns of herbivore invasions are associated with diminished enemy release. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a surveillance model for plant pests that can optimally allocate resources among survey tools with varying properties. While some survey tools are highly specific for the detection of a single pest species, others are more generalized. There is considerable variation in the cost and sensitivity of these tools, but there are no guidelines or frameworks for identifying which tools are most cost‐effective when used in surveillance programs that target the detection of newly invaded populations. To address this gap, we applied our model to design a trapping surveillance program in New Zealand for bark‐ and wood‐boring insects, some of the most serious forest pests worldwide. Our findings show that exclusively utilizing generalized traps (GTs) proves to be highly cost‐effective across a wide range of scenarios, particularly when they are capable of capturing all pest species. Implementing surveillance programs that only employ specialized traps (ST) is cost‐effective only when these traps can detect highly damaging pests. However, even in such cases, they significantly lag in cost‐effectiveness compared to GT‐only programs due to their restricted coverage. When both GTs and STs are used in an integrated surveillance program, the total expected cost (TEC) generally diminishes when compared to programs relying on a single type of trap. However, this relative reduction in TEC is only marginally larger than that achieved with GT‐only programs, as long as highly damaging species can be detected by GTs. The proportion of STs among the optimal required traps fluctuates based on several factors, including the relative pricing of GTs and STs, pest arrival rates, potential damage, and, more prominently, the coverage capacity of GTs. Our analysis suggests that deploying GTs extensively across landscapes appears to be more cost‐effective in areas with either very high or very low levels of relative risk density, potential damage, and arrival rate. Finally, STs are less likely to be required when the pests that are detected by those tools have a higher likelihood of successful eradication because delaying detection becomes less costly for these species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the concept of treeline dynamics in response to global warming. The authors argue that treeline ecotones in alpine and arctic settings are less sensitive to anthropogenic warming than commonly assumed. They propose the concepts of range-pinning and Allee effects as factors that may explain the reduced temperature sensitivity of treeline positions. The authors suggest that future treeline studies should consider eco-physiological and biochemical insights, empirical evidence for Allee effects, and interdisciplinary approaches to advance knowledge in biogeography and ecology. [Extracted from the article]

Biological invasions are frequently and closely associated with armed conflict. As a key element of human history, war involves the invasion of (often distant) enemy territories, during which time species can be translocated, intentionally or unintentionally. Large‐scale conflicts such as World War I and II, in which thousands of soldiers and supplies (including foodstuffs) were transported within and between continents, resulted in the spread of non‐native taxa. However, smaller scale military actions may also involve rapid movements of troops between geographical areas, potentially facilitating the accidental introduction of species into previously unoccupied areas. Furthermore, invasive pests have occasionally been used by armies as weapons to weaken and disrupt opposing forces or nations. The introduction of invasive species during war could be considered relatively minor collateral damage, but many biological invasions in conflict zones have long‐lasting effects. Regulation of military practices to minimize or prevent biological invasions through existing international conventions has so far been unsuccessful, necessitating the development of additional measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Non‐native species are part of almost every biological community worldwide, yet numbers of species establishments have an uneven global distribution. Asymmetrical exchanges of species between regions are likely influenced by a range of mechanisms, including propagule pressure, native species pools, environmental conditions and biosecurity. While the importance of different mechanisms is likely to vary among invasion stages, those occurring prior to establishment (transport and introduction) are difficult to account for. We used records of unintentional insect introductions to test (1) whether insects from some biogeographic regions are more likely to be successful invaders, (2) whether the intensity of trade flows between regions determines how many species are intercepted and how many successfully establish, and (3) whether the variables driving successful transport and successful establishment differ. Location: Canada, mainland USA, Hawaii, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Great Britain, South Korea, South Africa. Methods: To disentangle processes occurring during the transport and establishment stages, we analysed border interceptions of 8199 insect species as a proxy for transported species flows, and lists of 2076 established non‐native insect species in eight areas. We investigated the influence of biogeographic variables, socio‐economic variables and biosecurity regulations on the size of species flows between regions. Results: During transport, the largest species flows generally originated from the Nearctic, Panamanian and Neotropical regions. Insects native to 8 of 12 biogeographic regions were able to establish, with the largest flows of established species on average coming from the Western Palearctic, Neotropical and Australasian/Oceanian regions. Both the biogeographic region of origin and trade intensity significantly influenced the size of species flows between regions during transport and establishment. The transported species richness increased with Gross National Income in the source country, and decreased with geographic distance. More species were able to establish when introduced within their native biogeographic region. Main Conclusions: Our results suggest that accounting for processes occurring prior to establishment is crucial for understanding invasion asymmetry in insects, and for quantifying regional biosecurity risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International trade continues to drive biological invasions. We investigate the drivers of global nonnative ant establishments over the last two centuries using a Cox proportional hazards model. We use country‐level discovery records for 36 of the most widespread nonnative ant species worldwide from 1827 to 2012. We find that climatic similarity combined with cumulative imports during the 20 years before a species discovery in any given year is an important predictor of establishment. Accounting for invasions from both the native and previously invaded "bridgehead" regions substantially improves the model's fit, highlighting the role of spatial spillovers. These results are valuable for targeting biosecurity efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Many invasive plant species benefit from enemy release resulting from the absence of insect herbivores in their invaded range. However, over time, specialized herbivores may 'catch up' with such invasive plants. Black locust is a tree species with a relatively limited native range in North America but has invaded large areas in virtually every temperate continent including North America. We hypothesize that both intra‐ and intercontinental spread of black locust leads to a parallel, though delayed pattern of intra‐ and intercontinental spread of insect herbivores. Location: Global. Taxon: Black locust, Robinia pseudoacacia, and its insect herbivores. Methods: We compiled historical records of the occurrence of insect herbivore species associated with R. pseudoacacia from all world regions. Based on this list, we describe taxonomic patterns and investigate associations between environmental features and numbers of non‐native specialist herbivores in the portion of North America invaded by R. pseudoacacia. Results: A total of 454 herbivorous species are recorded feeding on R. pseudoacacia across the world, with 23 of these being specialized on Robinia. From this group, seven species have successfully expanded their range beyond North America. Within North America, the richness of specialists is explained by a combination of road density, R. pseudoacacia density, distance from the R. pseudoacacia native range, and climate. Main Conclusion: Non‐native herbivore species have accumulated on invasive R. pseudoacacia in both North America and in other continents. The steady build‐up of invasions likely has diminished the enemy release that this invasive tree species has benefited from – a trend that will likely continue in the future. These findings support the hypothesis that invasive plants promote parallel though delayed invasions of specialist insect herbivores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite efforts to prevent their establishment, many invasive species continue to spread and threaten food production, human health, and natural biodiversity. Slowing the spread of established species is often a preferred strategy; however, it is also expensive and necessitates treatment over large areas. Therefore, it is critical to examine how to distribute management efforts over space cost‐effectively. Here we consider a continuous‐space bioeconomic model and we develop a novel algorithm to find the most cost‐effective allocation of treatment efforts throughout a landscape. We show that the optimal strategy often comprises eradication in the yet‐uninvaded area, and under certain conditions, it also comprises maintaining a "suppression zone," an area between the invaded and the uninvaded areas, where treatment reduces the invading population but without eliminating it. We examine how the optimal strategy depends on the demographic characteristics of the species and reveal general criteria for deciding when a suppression zone is cost effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some introduced species cause severe damage, although the majority have little impact. Robust predictions of which species are most likely to cause substantial impacts could focus efforts to mitigate those impacts or prevent certain invasions entirely. Introduced herbivorous insects can reduce crop yield, fundamentally alter natural and managed forest ecosystems, and are unique among invasive species in that they require certain host plants to succeed. Recent studies have demonstrated that understanding the evolutionary history of introduced herbivores and their host plants can provide robust predictions of impact. Specifically, divergence times between hosts in the native and introduced ranges of a nonnative insect can be used to predict the potential impact of the insect should it establish in a novel ecosystem. However, divergence time estimates vary among published phylogenetic datasets, making it crucial to understand if and how the choice of phylogeny affects prediction of impact. Here, we tested the robustness of impact prediction to variation in host phylogeny by using insects that feed on conifers and predicting the likelihood of high impact using four different published phylogenies. Our analyses ranked 62 insects that are not established in North America and 47 North American conifer species according to overall risk and vulnerability, respectively. We found that results were robust to the choice of phylogeny. Although published vascular plant phylogenies continue to be refined, our analysis indicates that those differences are not substantial enough to alter the predictions of invader impact. Our results can assist in focusing biosecurity programs for conifer pests and can be more generally applied to nonnative insects and their potential hosts by prioritizing surveillance for those insects most likely to be damaging invaders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although many non‐native species arrive in novel environments, only a fraction successfully establish. A crucial factor affecting the colonization process of invading species is propagule pressure. The positive association between propagule pressure and colonization probability is driven both by stochastic dynamics and the 'Allee effect'. Although the role of Allee effects in invading populations is theoretically compelling, they are difficult to quantify in the field because the earliest phases of biological invasions are typically not observed.We conducted parallel studies using two species of bark beetles, Hylurgus ligniperda in New Zealand and Ips pini in North America, to (i) assess the role of propagule pressure on colonization success, (ii) empirically test for Allee effects and (iii) estimate Allee thresholds. We evaluated each of these factors by experimentally testing the effect of propagule pressure (numbers released) on simulated tree colonization success in two different settings: (1) field conditions where beetles could disperse freely and (2) enclosed cages where dispersal loss was prevented.Colonization success was positively associated with numbers released (i.e. propagule pressure) for both species, though colonization occurred at lower numbers for H. ligniperda than for I. pini. A demographic Allee effect was only detected in H. ligniperda and the Allee threshold was smaller when beetles were released 1 m from host billets than when they were released 10 m away. Greater colonization success at lower release densities may explain the invasion success of H. ligniperda worldwide. Higher release densities required for successful colonization may explain why I. pini is a poor establisher.Synthesis and applications. Our results linking invasion failure to small founding population densities generally support the theoretical literature on the role of propagule pressure and Allee effects in biological invasions. Agencies such as the International Plant Protection Committee (IPPC) setting phytosanitary measures such as the International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures No. 15 (ISPM 15) should consider using the colonization thresholds estimated here to limit numbers of colonizing individuals below invasion thresholds. Additionally, agencies conducting trapping efforts at ports‐of‐entry should be aware of these thresholds and widely report when trapping numbers exceed these thresholds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globalization and economic growth are recognized as key drivers of biological invasions. Alien species have become a feature of almost every biological community worldwide, and rates of new introductions continue to rise as the movement of people and goods accelerates. Insects are among the most numerous and problematic alien organisms, and are mainly introduced unintentionally with imported cargo or arriving passengers. However, the processes occurring prior to insect introductions remain poorly understood. We used a unique dataset of 1,902,392 border interception records from inspections at air, land, and maritime ports in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Japan, USA, and Canada to identify key commodities associated with insect movement through trade and travel. In total, 8939 species were intercepted, and commodity association data were available for 1242 species recorded between 1960 and 2019. We used rarefaction and extrapolation methods to estimate the total species richness and diversity associated with different commodity types. Plant and wood products were the main commodities associated with insect movement across cargo, passenger baggage, and international mail. Furthermore, certain species were mainly associated with specific commodities within these, and other broad categories. More closely related species tended to share similar commodity associations, but this occurred largely at the genus level rather than within orders or families. These similarities within genera can potentially inform pathway management of new alien species. Combining interception records across regions provides a unique window into the unintentional movement of insects, and provides valuable information on establishment risks associated with different commodity types and pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Biological invasions are a major threat to biodiversity in aquatic and terrestrial habitats. Insects represent an important group of species in freshwater and terrestrial habitats, and they constitute a large proportion of non‐native species. However, while many non‐native insects are known from terrestrial ecosystems, they appear to be less represented in freshwater habitats. Comparisons between freshwater and terrestrial habitats of invader richness relative to native species richness are scarce, which hinders syntheses of invasion processes. Here, we used data from three regions on different continents to determine whether non‐native insects are indeed under‐represented in freshwater compared with terrestrial assemblages. Location: Europe, North America, New Zealand. Methods: We compiled a comprehensive inventory of native and non‐native insect species established in freshwater and terrestrial habitats of the three study regions. We then contrasted the richness of non‐native and native species among freshwater and terrestrial insects for all insect orders in each region. Using binomial regression, we analysed the proportions of non‐native species in freshwater and terrestrial habitats. Marine insect species were excluded from our analysis, and insects in low‐salinity brackish water were considered as freshwater insects. Results: In most insect orders living in freshwater, non‐native species were under‐represented, while they were over‐represented in a number of terrestrial orders. This pattern occurred in purely aquatic orders and in orders with both freshwater and terrestrial species. Overall, the proportion of non‐native species was significantly lower in freshwater than in terrestrial species. Main conclusions: Despite the numerical and ecological importance of insects among all non‐native species, non‐native insect species are surprisingly rare in freshwater habitats. This is consistent across the three investigated regions. We review hypotheses concerning species traits and invasion pathways that are most likely to explain these patterns. Our findings contribute to a growing appreciation of drivers and impacts of biological invasions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Lepidoptera is a highly diverse, predominantly herbivorous insect order, with species transported to outside their native range largely facilitated by the global trade of plants and plant‐based goods. Analogous to island disharmony, we examine invasion disharmony, where species filtering during invasions increases systematic compositional differences between native and non‐native species assemblages, and test whether some families are more successful at establishing in non‐native regions than others. Location: Hawaii, North America, Galapagos, Europe, South Africa, South Korea, Japan, Nansei Islands, Ogasawara Islands, Australia, New Zealand. Taxon: Lepidoptera. Methods: We compared numbers of non‐native, unintentionally introduced Lepidoptera species with the land area of 11 regions worldwide. Differences among native and non‐native assemblages in the distribution of species among families were investigated using ordination analysis. We tested whether invasion disharmony is explained by propagule pressure (proxied by species richness in border interceptions) and if families were associated with specific trade commodities. Results: In total, 741 non‐native Lepidoptera species, accounting for 0.47% of the global diversity of lepidopterans, are established in at least one of the 11 regions. Crambidae, Pyralidae, Tineidae and Gracillariidae were particularly successful invaders, whereas the two most species‐rich families, Erebidae and Geometridae, were under‐represented among non‐native Lepidoptera. Much of the variation in species numbers in the native, and less so in the non‐native assemblages could be attributed to land area. Although native assemblages were similar among nearby regions, non‐native assemblages were not, suggesting geography had little effect on invasion disharmony. Comparison of established with intercepted species revealed that macromoth families were generally under‐represented in establishments, whereas several micromoth families were under‐represented in interceptions. This discrepancy may relate to greater detectability of larger species or high propagule pressure via associations with specific invasion pathways. Main conclusions Invasion disharmony in Lepidoptera appears to be driven by processes unrelated to the success of native assemblages. While native assemblages developed through long‐term evolutionary radiation, the composition of non‐native assemblages is driven by differential invasion pathways and traits affecting the establishment of founder populations that vary among families. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The concept of "island disharmony" has been widely applied to describe the systematic over‐ and under‐representation of taxa on islands compared to mainland regions. Here, we explore an extension of that concept to biological invasions. We compare biogeographical patterns in native and non‐native beetle (Coleoptera) assemblages from around the world to test whether beetle invasions represent a random sample of species or whether some families are more prone to invade than others. Location: Global. Methods: Numbers of non‐native beetle species established in ten regions worldwide were compared with the land area of each region. The distribution of species among families was compared with the distribution among families for all species native to the same region and with the distribution among families for the global pool of all known beetle species. Ordination analysis was used to characterize differences among native and non‐native assemblages based upon the distribution of species among families. Results: We report a total of 1,967 non‐native beetle species across all ten regions, and a classic log–log relationship between numbers of species per region and land area though relationships are generally stronger for native assemblages. Some families (e.g., Dermestidae and Bostrichidae) are over‐represented and others (e.g., Carabidae, Scarabaeidae and Buprestidae) are under‐represented in non‐native assemblages. The distribution of species among families is generally similar among native assemblages with greatest similarities among nearby regions. In contrast, non‐native species assemblages are more similar to each other than to native species assemblages. Main conclusions: Certain families are over‐represented, and others are under‐represented in non‐native beetle assemblages compared to native assemblages, indicating "invasion disharmony" in the global representation of beetle families. Similarities in composition among non‐native assemblages may reflect unobserved associations with invasion pathways and life‐history traits that shape invasion success of different insect groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of national biosecurity programs, cargo imports, passenger baggage, and international mail are inspected at ports of entry to verify compliance with phytosanitary regulations and to intercept potentially damaging nonnative species to prevent their introduction. Detection of organisms during inspections may also provide crucial information about the species composition and relative arrival rates in invasion pathways that can inform the implementation of other biosecurity practices such as quarantines and surveillance. In most regions, insects are the main taxonomic group encountered during inspections. We gathered insect interception data from nine world regions collected from 1995 to 2019 to compare the composition of species arriving at ports in these regions. Collectively, 8,716 insect species were intercepted in these regions over the last 25 yr, with the combined international data set comprising 1,899,573 interception events, of which 863,972 were identified to species level. Rarefaction analysis indicated that interceptions comprise only a small fraction of species present in invasion pathways. Despite differences in inspection methodologies, as well as differences in the composition of import source regions and imported commodities, we found strong positive correlations in species interception frequencies between regions, particularly within the Hemiptera and Thysanoptera. There were also significant differences in species frequencies among insects intercepted in different regions. Nevertheless, integrating interception data among multiple regions would be valuable for estimating invasion risks for insect species with high likelihoods of introduction as well as for identifying rare but potentially damaging species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. A demographic Allee effect refers to increasing per capita population growth with increasing abundance. It arises from component Allee effects, which exist when some component of individual fitness has a positive relationship with density. Newly arrived populations tend to be small, and their establishment success is influenced by various factors, including demographic Allee effects. Identifying mechanisms driving the Allee effect is of relevance for understanding establishment failure, developing strategies for improving biological control and conservation, and for managing biological invasions. 2. We utilised an invasive plant biocontrol agent, Neolema ogloblini, as model to study Allee effects experienced by invading populations. We investigated mating failure and predator satiation as two component Allee effects that could potentially drive a demographic Allee effect in N. ogloblini populations. 3. We released unmated adults onto isolated host patches using five release sizes and evaluated the mating status of females after 3 weeks in the field. The probability of being mated increased as number of males recovered increased, suggesting the presence of a mating‐failure component Allee effect in very small populations of N. ogloblini. Exclosures were used to evaluate survival of immatures of N. ogloblini developing in small group sizes, either in the presence or absence of generalist predators. Results revealed high levels of predation, but a positive relationship between larval survival and group size in the presence of generalist predators could not be verified. 4. Our study identified relevant life‐history traits contributing to establishment failure in N. ogloblini and demonstrates the value of biocontrol agents as models to study mechanisms of species invasion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The number of alien species has been increasing for centuries world‐wide, but temporal changes in the dynamics of their inter‐regional spread remain unclear. Here, we analyse changes in the rate and extent of inter‐regional spread of alien species over time and how these dynamics vary among major taxonomic groups. Location: Global. Time period: 1500–2010. Major taxa studied: Vascular plants, mammals, birds, fishes, arthropods and other invertebrates. Methods: Our analysis is based on the Alien Species First Record Database, which comprises >60,000 entries describing the year when an alien species was first recorded in a region (mostly countries and large islands) where it later established as an alien species. Based on the number and distribution of first records, we calculated metrics of spread between regions, which we termed "inter‐regional spread", and conducted statistical analyses to assess variations over time and across taxonomic groups. Results: Almost all (>90%) species introduced before 1700 are found in more than one region today. Inter‐regional spread often took centuries and is ongoing for many species. The intensity of inter‐regional spread increased over time, with particularly steep increases after 1800. Rates of spread peaked for plants in the late 19th century, for birds and invertebrates in the late 20th century, and remained largely constant for mammals and fishes. Inter‐regional spread for individual species showed hump‐shaped temporal patterns, with the highest rates of spread at intermediate alien range sizes. Approximately 50% of widespread species showed signs of declines in spread rates. Main conclusions: Our results show that, although rates of spread have declined for many widespread species, for entire taxonomic groups they have tended to increase continuously over time. The large numbers of alien species that are currently observed in only a single region are anticipated to be found in many other regions in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nonnative plant pests cause billions of dollars in damages. It is critical to prevent or reduce these losses by intervening at various stages of the invasion process, including pathway risk management (to prevent pest arrival), surveillance and eradication (to counter establishment), and management of established pests (to limit damages). Quantifying benefits and costs of these interventions is important to justify and prioritize investments and to inform biosecurity policy. However, approaches for these estimations differ in (1) the assumed relationship between supply, demand, and prices, and (2) the ability to assess different types of direct and indirect costs at invasion stages, for a given arrival or establishment probability. Here we review economic approaches available to estimate benefits and costs of biosecurity interventions to inform the appropriate selection of approaches. In doing so, we complement previous studies and reviews on estimates of damages from invasive species by considering the influence of economic and methodological assumptions. Cost accounting is suitable for rapid decisions, specific impacts, and simple methodological assumptions but fails to account for feedbacks, such as market adjustments, and may overestimate long‐term economic impacts. Partial equilibrium models consider changes in consumer and producer surplus due to pest impacts or interventions and can account for feedbacks in affected sectors but require specialized economic models, comprehensive data sets, and estimates of commodity supply and demand curves. More intensive computable general equilibrium models can account for feedbacks across entire economies, including capital and labor, and linkages among these. The two major considerations in choosing an approach are (1) the goals of the analysis (e.g., consideration of a single pest or intervention with a limited range of impacts vs. multiple interventions, pests or sectors), and (2) the resources available for analysis such as knowledge, budget and time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although most populations of non‐native species arriving in new environments fail to establish, mechanisms behind failed biological invasions are still poorly understood.Propagule pressure has been found to be a dominant driver of establishment success, underpinned by processes such as stochasticity and Allee effects. While studies have revealed the presence of a component Allee effect in field populations, empirical support for demographic Allee effects has been limited.We used the leaf‐feeding beetle Neolema ogloblini, a biological control agent against the plant Tradescantiafluminensis, as a proxy invasive species to experimentally study the process of establishment. We investigated how the initial size of the population released affects the probability of establishment and population growth in the first season after introduction at isolated sites in New Zealand.The probability of establishment was found to increase with numbers of individuals released. A significant quadratic relationship was found between population size released and per capita population growth rate; that is per capita population growth rate initially increased as population size released increased but decreased at higher population levels.These results support the presence of a demographic Allee effect. However, as the influence of stochasticity (environmental and demographic) could not be completely separated from that of a demographic Allee effect, we conclude that extinction probability in the experimental populations of N. ogloblini was influenced by both a demographic Allee effect and stochasticity.Our study demonstrates and supports the concept that experimental biocontrol agent releases can be used for testing hypotheses regarding invasion biology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impact assessment is an important and cost‐effective tool for assisting in the identification and prioritization of invasive alien species. With the number of alien and invasive alien species expected to increase, reliance on impact assessment tools for the identification of species that pose the greatest threats will continue to grow. Given the importance of such assessments for management and resource allocation, it is critical to understand the uncertainty involved and what effect this may have on the outcome. Using an uncertainty typology and insects as a model taxon, we identified and classified the causes and types of uncertainty when performing impact assessments on alien species. We assessed 100 alien insect species across two rounds of assessments with each species independently assessed by two assessors. Agreement between assessors was relatively low for all three impact classification components (mechanism, severity, and confidence) after the first round of assessments. For the second round, we revised guidelines and gave assessors access to each other's assessments which improved agreement by between 20% and 30% for impact mechanism, severity, and confidence. Of the 12 potential reasons for assessment discrepancies identified a priori, 11 were found to occur. The most frequent causes (and types) of uncertainty (i.e., differences between assessment outcomes for the same species) were as follows: incomplete information searches (systematic error), unclear mechanism and/or extent of impact (subjective judgment due to a lack of knowledge), and limitations of the assessment framework (context dependence). In response to these findings, we identify actions that may reduce uncertainty in the impact assessment process, particularly for assessing speciose taxa with diverse life histories such as Insects. Evidence of environmental impact was available for most insect species, and (of the non‐random original subset of species assessed) 14 of those with evidence were identified as high impact species (with either major or massive impact). Although uncertainty in risk assessment, including impact assessments, can never be eliminated, identifying, and communicating its cause and variety is a first step toward its reduction and a more reliable assessment outcome, regardless of the taxa being assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business‐as‐usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back‐casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon–continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of the profound ecological and economic impacts of many non‐native insect species, early detection and eradication of newly founded, isolated populations is a high priority for preventing damages. Though successful eradication is often challenging, the effectiveness of several treatment methods/tactics is enhanced by the existence of Allee dynamics in target populations. Historically, successful eradication has often relied on the application of two or more tactics. Here, we examine how to combine three treatment tactics in the most cost‐effective manner, either simultaneously or sequentially in a multiple‐annum process. We show that each tactic is most efficient across a specific range of population densities. Furthermore, we show that certain tactics inhibit the efficiency of other tactics and should therefore not be used simultaneously; but since each tactic is effective at specific densities, different combinations of tactics should be applied sequentially through time when a multiple‐annum eradication programme is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing species establishment risk is an important task used for informing biosecurity activities aimed at preventing biological invasions. Propagule pressure is a major contributor to the probability of invading species establishment; however, direct assessment of numbers of individuals arriving is virtually never possible. Inspections conducted at borders by biosecurity officials record counts of species (or higher‐level taxa) intercepted during inspections, which can be used as proxies for arrival rates. Such data may therefore be useful for predicting species establishments, though some species may establish despite never being intercepted. We present a stochastic process‐based model of the arrival–interception–establishment process to predict species establishment risk from interception count data. The model can be used to estimate the probability of establishment, both for species that were intercepted and species that had no interceptions during a given observation period. We fit the stochastic model to data on two insect families, Cerambycidae and Aphididae, that were intercepted and/or established in the United States or New Zealand. We also explore the effects of variation in model parameters and the inclusion of an Allee effect in the establishment probability. Although interception data sets contain much noise due to variation in inspection policy, interception effort and among‐species differences in detectability, our study shows that it is possible to use such data for predicting establishments and distinguishing differences in establishment risk profile between taxonomic groups. Our model provides a method for predicting the number of species that have breached border biosecurity, including both species detected during inspections but also "unseen arrivals" that have never been intercepted, but have not yet established a viable population. These estimates could inform prioritization of different taxonomic groups, pathways or identification effort in biosecurity programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological invasions are a global consequence of an increasingly connected world and the rise in human population size. The numbers of invasive alien species – the subset of alien species that spread widely in areas where they are not native, affecting the environment or human livelihoods – are increasing. Synergies with other global changes are exacerbating current invasions and facilitating new ones, thereby escalating the extent and impacts of invaders. Invasions have complex and often immense long‐term direct and indirect impacts. In many cases, such impacts become apparent or problematic only when invaders are well established and have large ranges. Invasive alien species break down biogeographic realms, affect native species richness and abundance, increase the risk of native species extinction, affect the genetic composition of native populations, change native animal behaviour, alter phylogenetic diversity across communities, and modify trophic networks. Many invasive alien species also change ecosystem functioning and the delivery of ecosystem services by altering nutrient and contaminant cycling, hydrology, habitat structure, and disturbance regimes. These biodiversity and ecosystem impacts are accelerating and will increase further in the future. Scientific evidence has identified policy strategies to reduce future invasions, but these strategies are often insufficiently implemented. For some nations, notably Australia and New Zealand, biosecurity has become a national priority. There have been long‐term successes, such as eradication of rats and cats on increasingly large islands and biological control of weeds across continental areas. However, in many countries, invasions receive little attention. Improved international cooperation is crucial to reduce the impacts of invasive alien species on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human livelihoods. Countries can strengthen their biosecurity regulations to implement and enforce more effective management strategies that should also address other global changes that interact with invasions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in thermal regimes that disparately affect hosts and parasitoids could release hosts from biological control. When multiple natural enemy species share a host, shifts in host–parasitoid dynamics could depend on whether natural enemies interact antagonistically vs. synergistically. We investigated how biotic and abiotic factors influence the population ecology of larch casebearer (Coleophora laricella), a nonnative pest, and two imported parasitoids, Agathis pumila and Chrysocharis laricinellae, by analyzing (1) temporal dynamics in defoliation from 1962 to 2018, and (2) historical, branch‐level data on densities of larch casebearer and parasitism rates by the two imported natural enemies from 1972 to 1995. Analyses of defoliation indicated that, prior to the widespread establishment of parasitoids (1962 to ~1980), larch casebearer outbreaks occurred in 2–6 yr cycles. This pattern was followed by a >15‐yr period during which populations were at low, apparently stable densities undetectable via aerial surveys, presumably under control from parasitoids. However, since the late 1990s and despite the persistence of both parasitoids, outbreaks exhibiting unstable dynamics have occurred. Analyses of branch‐level data indicated that growth of casebearer populations, A. pumila populations, and within‐casebearer densities of C. laricinellae—a generalist whose population dynamics are likely also influenced by use of alternative hosts—were inhibited by density dependence, with high intraspecific densities in one year slowing growth into the next. Casebearer population growth was also inhibited by parasitism from A. pumila, but not C. laricinellae, and increased with warmer autumnal temperatures. Growth of A. pumila populations and within‐casebearer densities of C. laricinellae increased with casebearer densities but decreased with warmer annual maximum temperatures. Moreover, parasitism by A. pumila was associated with increased growth of within‐casebearer densities of C. laricinellae without adverse effects on its own demographics, indicating a synergistic interaction between these parasitoids. Our results indicate that warming can be associated with opposing effects between trophic levels, with deleterious effects of warming on one natural enemy species potentially being exacerbated by similar impacts on another. Coupling of such parasitoid responses with positive responses of hosts to warming might have contributed to the return of casebearer outbreaks to North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore a common feature of insect population dynamics, interspecific synchrony, which refers to synchrony in population dynamics among sympatric populations of different species. Such synchrony can arise via several possible mechanisms, including shared environmental effects and shared trophic interactions, but distinguishing the relative importance among different mechanisms can be challenging. We analyze interannual time series of population densities of the larch budmoth, Zeiraphera griseana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), along with six sympatric larch‐feeding folivores from a site in the European Alps 1952–1979. These species include five lepidopterans, Exapate duratella, Ptycholomoides aeriferana, Spilonota laricana, Epirrita autumnata and Teleiodes saltuum, and one hymenopteran sawfly Pristiphora laricis. We document that the highly regular oscillatory behavior (period 9–10 years) of Z. griseana populations is similarly evident in the dynamics of most of the sympatric folivores. We also find that all of the sympatric species are phase synchronized with Z. griseana populations with half of the sympatric species exhibiting nonlagged phase synchrony and three of the species exhibiting 2–5 year lags behind Z. griseana populations. We adapt a previously developed tritrophic model of Z. griseana dynamics to explore possible mechanisms responsible for observed phase synchronization. Results suggest that either shared stochastic influences (e.g., weather) or shared parasitoid impacts are likely causes of nonlagged phase synchronization. The model further indicates that observed patterns of lagged phase synchronization are most likely caused by either shared delayed induced host plant defenses or direct density‐dependent effects shared with Z. griseana. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio‐economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid‐21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio‐economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best‐case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best‐case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post‐2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological invasions are affected by characteristics of invading species, strength of pathway connectivity among world regions and habitat characteristics of invaded regions. These factors may interact in complex ways to drive geographical variation in numbers of invasions among world regions. Understanding the role of these drivers provides information that is crucial to the development of effective biosecurity policies. Here we assemble for the first time a global database of historical invasions of Scolytinae species and explore factors explaining geographical variation in numbers of species invading different regions. This insect group includes several pest species with massive economic and ecological impacts and these beetles are known to be accidentally moved with wood packaging in global trade. Candidate explanatory characteristics included in this analysis are cumulative trade among world regions, size of source species pools, forest area, and climatic similarity of the invaded region with source regions. Species capable of sib‐mating comprised the highest proportion on nonnative Scolytines, and these species colonized a higher number of regions than outbreeders. The size of source species pools offered little power in explaining variation in numbers of invasions among world regions nor did climate or forest area. In contrast, cumulative trade had a strong and consistent positive relationship with numbers of Scolytinae species moving from one region to another, and this effect was highest for bark beetles, followed by ambrosia beetles, and was low for seed and twig feeders. We conclude that global variation in Scolytine invasions is primarily driven by variation in trade levels among world regions. Results stress the importance of global trade as the primary driver of historical Scolytinae invasions and we anticipate other hitchhiking species would exhibit similar patterns. One implication of these results is that invasions between certain world regions may be historically low because of past low levels of trade but future economic shifts could result in large numbers of new invasions as a result of increased trade among previously isolated portions of the world. With changing global flow of goods among world regions, it is crucial that biosecurity efforts keep pace to minimize future invasions and their impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Previous work demonstrated the global variability of synchrony in tree growth within populations, that is, the covariance of the year‐to‐year variability in growth of individual neighbouring trees. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the causes of this variability and its trajectories through time. Here, we examine whether climate can explain variation in within‐population synchrony (WPS) across space but also through time and we develop models capable of explaining this variation. These models can be applied to the global tree cover under current and future climate change scenarios. Location: Global. Time period: 1901–2012. Major taxa studied: Trees. Methods: We estimated WPS values from a global tree‐ring width database consisting of annual growth increment measurements from multiple trees at 3,579 sites. We used generalized linear mixed effects models to infer the drivers of WPS variability and temporal trends of global WPS. We then predicted WPS values across the global extent of tree cover. Finally, we applied our model to predict future WPS based on the RCP 8.5 (2045–2065 period) emission scenario. Results: Areas with the highest WPS are characterized by a combination of environments with both high mean annual temperature (>10°C) and low precipitation (<300 mm). Average WPS across all temperate forests has decreased historically and will continue to decrease. Potential implications of these patterns include changes in forest dynamics, such as higher tree growth and productivity and an increase in carbon sequestration. In contrast, the WPS of tropical forests of Central and South America will increase in the near future owing to reduced annual precipitation. Main conclusions: Climate explains WPS variability in space and time. We suggest that WPS might have value as an integrative ecological measure of the level of environmental stress to which forests are subjected and therefore holds potential for diagnosing effects of global climate change on tree growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non‐native insects pose threats to forest health and often spread via stratified dispersal in which long‐distance jumps cause elevated rates of range expansion. Quantifying patterns and developing models of spread are central to understanding drivers of invasion and forecasting future invasions.We investigated the utility of models for characterizing and predicting spread of emerald ash borer (EAB), quantified temporal dynamics of spread and identified correlates of county‐level invasion risk.We estimated rates and frequency of EAB spread and length of long‐distance jumps throughout the contiguous USA from 1997 to 2018 and compared observed patterns with model predictions. A time‐to‐event model was then developed at the county level to assess the influence of habitat characteristics and propagule pressure on invasion risk. The final model was used to forecast invasion risk across the contiguous USA.Range expansion by EAB accorded well with model predictions. Following the initial establishment phase, range expansion rates were biphasic, shifting to a faster, linear pattern around 2002 and then declining from 2015 onwards. From 2003 onwards, EAB invaded 6–134 new counties per year, including a mean of 14 discrete jumps per year averaging 93 ± 7 SE km.Risk of spread was positively associated with proximity to previously invaded areas, human population density and densities of ash and non‐ash trees in rural forests but negatively associated with temperature.Synthesis and applications. At the regional level, the invasion by emerald ash borer appears to be entering the saturation phase, indicating that most high‐risk counties in the eastern USA have been invaded. Even though spread has recently slowed, counties in close proximity to invaded areas and that have high densities of humans and trees are at the greatest risk of becoming invaded. Taken together, our findings provide insight into historical and future dynamics of range expansion by emerald ash borer, which can be used to guide risk assessments for potential invaders capable of frequent long‐distance dispersal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasions by non‐native pests and diseases represent serious threats to biodiversity, agriculture and human health. Under current border arrival rates associated with international trade not all such invasions can be prevented, so early detection and eradication (forced extinction) are important strategies for preventing establishment and long‐term impacts. Removal of host plants has historically been a common tool used alone and in concert with other tools for eradication of plant pests but there is little scientific theory specific to the management of invasive species to guide the application of this eradication strategy.We drew upon extensive conservation biology literature documenting the effect of habitat destruction or fragmentation driving extinction. We applied a previously developed spatially explicit model of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, spatial dynamics to explore how fragmentation affects population persistence. This model accounts for a component Allee effect driven by mate‐finding failure that interacts with dispersal.We observed a nonlinear dependency of population persistence on the fraction of habitat cover and the level of habitat fragmentation. Simulation of active habitat fragmentation via the removal of habitat in swaths of varying widths or the application of pesticide in varying swaths showed that removal of hosts or pesticide application in narrow swaths (i.e. 40 m wide) caused the greatest probabilities of extinction. Generally, habitat removal was more effective than one‐off pesticide treatments at causing extinction.Synthesis and applications. Spatially explicit modelling of Allee dynamics in invading gypsy moth populations showed that host removal can be an effective method to eradicate invasive plant‐feeding insects especially when habitat fragmentation is applied at a desirable level. Furthermore, this can be used as an alternative to, or in conjunction with, pesticide treatments, to provide more options for carrying out eradications and to increase the probability of eradication success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interspecific synchrony, that is, synchrony in population dynamics among sympatric populations of different species can arise via several possible mechanisms, including common environmental effects, direct interactions between species, and shared trophic interactions, so that distinguishing the relative importance of these causes can be challenging. In this study, to overcome this difficulty, we combine traditional correlation analysis with a novel framework of nonlinear time series analysis, empirical dynamic modeling (EDM). The EDM is an analytical framework to identify causal relationships and measure changing interaction strength from time series. We apply this approach to time series of sympatric foliage‐feeding forest Lepidoptera species in the Slovak Republic and yearly mean temperature, precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation Index. These Lepidoptera species include both free‐feeding and leaf‐roller larval life histories: the former are hypothesized to be more strongly affected by similar exogenous environments, while the latter are isolated from such pressures. Correlation analysis showed that interspecific synchrony is generally strongest between species within same feeding guild. In addition, the convergent cross mapping analysis detected causal effects of meteorological factors on most of the free‐feeding species while such effects were not observed in the leaf‐rolling species. However, there were fewer causal relationships among species. The multivariate S‐map analysis showed that meteorological factors tend to affect similar free‐feeding species that are synchronous with each other. These results indicate that shared meteorological factors are key drivers of interspecific synchrony among members of the free‐feeding guild, but do not play the same role in synchronizing species within the leaf‐roller guild. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Establishments of non‐native forest pests (insects and pathogens) continue to increase worldwide with growing numbers of introductions and changes in invasion pathways. Quantifying spatio‐temporal patterns in establishment locations and subsequent invasion dynamics can provide insight into the underlying mechanisms driving invasions and assist biosecurity agencies with prioritizing areas for proactive surveillance and management. Location: United States of America. Time period: 1794–2018. Major taxa studied: Insecta, plant pathogens. Methods: Using locations of first discovery and county‐level occurrence data for 101 non‐native pests across the contiguous USA, we (a) quantified spatial patterns in discovery points and county‐level species richness with spatial point process models and spatial hotspot analyses, respectively, and (b) identified potential proxies for propagule pressure (e.g., human population density) associated with these observed patterns. Results: Discovery points were highly aggregated in space and located in areas with high densities of ports and roads. Although concentrated in the north‐eastern USA, discovery points also occurred farther west and became less aggregated as time progressed. Invasion hotspots were more common in the north‐east. Geographic patterns of discovery points and hotspots varied substantially among pest origins (i.e., global region of pests' native ranges) and pest feeding guilds. Significant variation in invasion richness was attributed to the patterns of first discovery locations. Data and shapefiles comprising analyses are provided. Main conclusions: Use of spatial point pattern analyses provided a quantitative characterization of the central role of human activities in establishment of non‐native pests. Moreover, the decreased aggregation of discovery points through time suggests that invasion pathways to certain areas in the USA have either been created or intensified by human activities. Overall, our results suggest that spatio‐temporal variability in the intensity of invasion pathways has resulted in marked geographic patterns of establishment and contributed to current macroscale patterns of pest invasion in the USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A long‐standing goal of invasion biology is to identify factors driving highly variable impacts of non‐native species. Although hypotheses exist that emphasize the role of evolutionary history (e.g., enemy release hypothesis & defense‐free space hypothesis), predicting the impact of non‐native herbivorous insects has eluded scientists for over a century.Using a census of all 58 non‐native conifer‐specialist insects in North America, we quantified the contribution of over 25 factors that could affect the impact they have on their novel hosts, including insect traits (fecundity, voltinism, native range, etc.), host traits (shade tolerance, growth rate, wood density, etc.), and evolutionary relationships (between native and novel hosts and insects).We discovered that divergence times between native and novel hosts, the shade and drought tolerance of the novel host, and the presence of a coevolved congener on a shared host, were more predictive of impact than the traits of the invading insect. These factors built upon each other to strengthen our ability to predict the risk of a non‐native insect becoming invasive. This research is the first to empirically support historically assumed hypotheses about the importance of evolutionary history as a major driver of impact of non‐native herbivorous insects.Our novel, integrated model predicts whether a non‐native insect not yet present in North America will have a one in 6.5 to a one in 2,858 chance of causing widespread mortality of a conifer species if established (R2 = 0.91)Synthesis and applications. With this advancement, the risk to other conifer host species and regions can be assessed, and regulatory and pest management efforts can be more efficiently prioritized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When herbivorous insects interact, they can increase or decrease each other's fitness. As it stands, we know little of what causes this variation. Classic competition theory predicts that competition will increase with niche overlap and population density. And classic hypotheses of herbivorous insect diversification predict that diet specialists will be superior competitors to generalists. Here, we test these predictions using phylogenetic meta‐analysis. We estimate the effects of diet breadth, population density and proxies of niche overlap: phylogenetic relatedness, physical proximity and feeding‐guild membership. As predicted, we find that competition between herbivorous insects increases with population density as well as phylogenetic and physical proximity. Contrary to predictions, competition tends to be stronger between than within feeding guilds and affects specialists as much as generalists. This is the first statistical evidence that niche overlap increases competition between herbivorous insects. However, niche overlap is not everything; complex feeding guild effects indicate important indirect interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species often respond to human‐caused climate change by shifting where they occur on the landscape. To anticipate these shifts, we need to understand the forces that determine where species currently occur. We tested whether a long‐hypothesised trade‐off between climate and competitive constraints explains where tree species grow on mountain slopes. Using tree rings, we reconstructed growth sensitivity to climate and competition in range centre and range margin tree populations in three climatically distinct regions. We found that climate often constrains growth at environmentally harsh elevational range boundaries, and that climatic and competitive constraints trade‐off at large spatial scales. However, there was less evidence that competition consistently constrained growth at benign elevational range boundaries; thus, local‐scale climate‐competition trade‐offs were infrequent. Our work underscores the difficulty of predicting local‐scale range dynamics, but suggests that the constraints on tree performance at a large‐scale (e.g. latitudinal) may be predicted from ecological theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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1. Studies of transient population dynamics have largely focused on temporal changes in dynamical behaviour, such as the transition between periods of stability and instability. This study explores a related dynamic pattern, namely transient synchrony during a 49-year period among populations of five sympatric species of forest insects that share host tree resources. The long time series allows a more comprehensive exploration of transient synchrony patterns than most previous studies. Considerable variation existed in the dynamics of individual species, ranging from periodic to aperiodic. 2. We used time-averaged methods to investigate long-term patterns of synchrony and time-localized methods to detect transient synchrony. We investigated transient patterns of synchrony between species and related these to the species' varying density dependence structures; even species with very different density dependence exhibited at least temporary periods of synchrony. Observed periods of interspecific synchrony may arise from interactions with host trees (e.g., induced host defences), interactions with shared natural enemies or shared impacts of environmental stochasticity. 3. The transient nature of synchrony observed here raises questions both about the identity of synchronizing mechanisms and how these mechanisms interact with the endogenous dynamics of each species. We conclude that these patterns are the result of interspecific interactions that act only temporarily to synchronize populations, after which differences in the endogenous population dynamics among the species acts to desynchronize their dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluating the causes of spatial synchrony in population dynamics in nature is notoriously difficult due to a lack of data and appropriate statistical methods. Here, we use a recently developed method, a multivariate extension of the local indicators of spatial autocorrelation statistic, to map geographic variation in the synchrony of gypsy moth outbreaks. Regression analyses indicated that local synchrony of gypsy moth defoliation increased with the local synchrony of precipitation and the proportion of host tree density composed of oaks, especially those in the Lobatae (red oak) section. This may be the first study that demonstrates a relationship between defoliator population synchrony and host tree composition. More broadly, this study contributes to a small body of recent work that illustrates how mapping hotspots of unusually high or low synchrony facilitates an improved understanding of factors influencing spatially synchronous population dynamics generally, and triggers of pest insect outbreaks, more specifically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Butternut trees dying from a canker disease were first reported in southwestern Wisconsin in 1967. Since then, the disease has caused extensive mortality of butternut throughout its North American range. The objectives of this study were to quantify changes in butternut populations and density across its range and identify habitat characteristics of sites where butternut is surviving in order to locate regions for potential butternut restoration. The natural range of butternut ( Juglans cinerea L.) extends over a large region of eastern N. America encompassing New Brunswick south to North Carolina, north to Minnesota, and southwest to Missouri. Despite the species' large range, it is typically not a common tree, comprising a relatively minor component of several different forest types. We evaluated change in butternut abundance and volume from current and historic data from 21 states in the eastern United States. We related abundance and volume at two time periods to a suite of ecological and site factors in order to characterize site conditions where butternut survived. We also assessed the current level of butternut mortality across its range. Since the 1980s, the number of butternut trees and butternut volume have decreased by 58% and 44%, respectively, across its US range. Substantial relative decreases in tree numbers and volume occurred in most ecoregion sections. Five environmental variables were found to be significant predictors of butternut presence. The potential impacts of butternut canker are particularly acute as the canker pathogen invasion pushes a rare tree species toward extinction, at least at a local scale. Based on the results presented here, large-diameter maple/beech/birch stands in dry, upland sites in eastern Minnesota, western Wisconsin, and upstate New York appear to offer the most favorable conditions for butternut growth and survival and thus may be the best stands for planting resistant butternut trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting how increasing rates of global trade will result in new establishments of potentially damaging invasive species is a question of critical importance to the development of national and international policies aimed at minimizing future invasions. Centuries of historical movement and establishment of invading species may have depleted the supply of species available for future invasions, and it has been suggested that the problem of invasions will diminish as a result of this. However, the extent to which source pool depletion affects future invasions remains unclear., Here we describe a mechanistic model that captures the simultaneous effects of depletion of source species pools along with increases in pathway rates (e.g. imports) to predict future numbers of new invasions. We assume that the distribution of species abundance within invasion pathways is positively skewed, which is modelled using a log-normal distribution. Given their high propagule pressure, the most abundant species are likely to invade first, while the many rare species are likely to invade only under high pathway volumes. We apply this model to the case study of bark beetle, Scolytinae, invasions in the USA., Source species pools in Europe and Asia (225 and 655 species of Scolytinae, respectively) are much larger than numbers that have historically established (16 and 32). Parameterization of the model indicates a highly skewed species abundance distribution in the pathway and this is confirmed by species frequencies in port inspection records, thus explaining why only a small fraction of species has historically invaded., Forecasts from the model indicate that with increasing rates of imports, more species from these regions are likely to invade in the future despite the depletion of the most abundant species from source species pools. Previous statistical models tend to underestimate future establishments in the presence of increasing import rates due to their failure to account for key underlying mechanisms., Policy implications. The mechanistic model developed here is widely applicable for predicting future invasions of all taxa and provides insights into how increases in rates of imports counteract the species pool depletion effect, resulting in the continued establishment of new species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Outbreaks of the larch budmoth ( LBM) in the European Alps are among the most documented population cycles and their historical occurrence has been reconstructed over 1200 years., Causes and consequences of cyclic LBM outbreaks are poorly understood and little is known about populations near the margin of the host's distribution range., In the present study, we quantify historical LBM outbreaks and associated growth reductions in host trees ( European larch). Tree-ring data collected from 18 sites between approximately 500 and 1700 m a.s.l. in the Northern pre- Alps are compared with data from the Western Alps and Tatra Mountains, as well as with nonhost Norway spruce., Highly synchronized host and nonhost growth in the Northern pre- Alps shows that periodic LBM outbreaks are largely absent near the distributional limit of larch. By contrast, growth patterns in the Western Alps LBM core region are indicative of LBM events. Although climatic conditions in the Northern pre- Alps and Tatra Mountains would allow LBM outbreaks, low host plant abundance is likely the key driver for the absence of cyclic outbreaks in these regions., The results obtained in the present study suggest that, in addition to the climatic conditions, host-species abundance is critically important for the occurrence of periodic LBM outbreaks and the determination of the respective outbreak range. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial synchrony, defined as correlated temporal fluctuations among populations, is a fundamental feature of population dynamics, but many aspects of synchrony remain poorly understood. Few studies have examined detailed geographical patterns of synchrony; instead most focus on how synchrony declines with increasing linear distance between locations, making the simplifying assumption that distance decay is isotropic. By synthesising and extending prior work, we show how geography of synchrony, a term which we use to refer to detailed spatial variation in patterns of synchrony, can be leveraged to understand ecological processes including identification of drivers of synchrony, a long-standing challenge. We focus on three main objectives: (1) showing conceptually and theoretically four mechanisms that can generate geographies of synchrony; (2) documenting complex and pronounced geographies of synchrony in two important study systems; and (3) demonstrating a variety of methods capable of revealing the geography of synchrony and, through it, underlying organism ecology. For example, we introduce a new type of network, the synchrony network, the structure of which provides ecological insight. By documenting the importance of geographies of synchrony, advancing conceptual frameworks, and demonstrating powerful methods, we aim to help elevate the geography of synchrony into a mainstream area of study and application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We tested whether a general spread model could capture macroecological patterns across all damaging invasive forest pests in the United States. We showed that a common constant dispersal kernel model, simulated from the discovery date, explained 67.94% of the variation in range size across all pests, and had 68.00% locational accuracy between predicted and observed locational distributions. Further, by making dispersal a function of forest area and human population density, variation explained increased to 75.60%, with 74.30% accuracy. These results indicated that a single general dispersal kernel model was sufficient to predict the majority of variation in extent and locational distribution across pest species and that proxies of propagule pressure and habitat invasibility - well-studied predictors of establishment - should also be applied to the dispersal stage. This model provides a key element to forecast novel invaders and to extend pathway-level risk analyses to include spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Dispersal and host detection are behaviours promoting the spread of invading populations in a landscape matrix. In fragmented landscapes, the spatial arrangement of habitat structure affects the dispersal success of organisms. 2. The aim of the present study was to determine the long distance dispersal capabilities of two non-native pine bark beetles ( Hylurgus ligniperda and Hylastes ater) in a modified and fragmented landscape with non-native pine trees. The role of pine density in relation to the abundance of dispersing beetles was also investigated. 3. This study took place in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. A network of insect panel traps was installed in remote valleys at known distances from pine resources (plantations or windbreaks). Beetle abundance was compared with spatially weighted estimates of nearby pine plantations and pine windbreaks. 4. Both beetles were found ≥25 km from the nearest host patch, indicating strong dispersal and host detection capabilities. Small pine patches appear to serve as stepping stones, promoting spread through the landscape. Hylurgus ligniperda (F.) abundance had a strong inverse association with pine plantations and windbreaks, whereas H. ater abundance was not correlated with distance to pine plantations but positively correlated with distance to pine windbreaks, probably reflecting differences in biology and niche preferences. Host availability and dispersed beetle abundance are the proposed limiting factors impeding the spread of these beetles. 5. These mechanistic insights into the spread and persistence of H. ater and H. ligniperda in a fragmented landscape provide ecologists and land managers with a better understanding of factors leading to successful invasion events, particularly in relation to the importance of long-distance dispersal ability and the distribution and size of host patches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming‐induced range shifts along elevational and latitudinal gradients have been observed in several species from various taxa. The mobility and behavioral plasticity of large endothermic mammals, however, complicate the detection of climatic effects on their spatial distributions. Here, we analyzed 230,565 hunting locations of the four most abundant ungulate species in the European Alps: ibex, chamois, red deer, and roe deer. Year‐to‐year and inter‐decadal range shifts toward higher elevations in Switzerland coincided with warmer, snow‐free, and thus more favorable autumn conditions in the same area. The average harvest elevation of ibex, chamois, and red deer significantly increased between 1991 and 2013. Although this trend is anticipated to continue, behavioral plasticity may allow the Alpine ibex and other mountain ungulates to buffer some of the associated consequences of climate change. Our results demonstrate the utility of well‐replicated hunting archives to supplement shorter but more precise monitoring data. This study also provides independent evidence of animal range shifts in response to environmental change at interannual and multi‐decadal time‐scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Efforts to detect and eradicate invading populations before they establish are a critical component of national biosecurity programmes. An essential element for maximizing the efficiency of these efforts is the balancing of expenditures on surveillance (e.g. trapping) versus treatment (e.g. eradication). Identifying the optimal allocation of resources towards surveillance requires an underlying model of how costs and the probability of detection fluctuate with survey intensity across various landscapes. Here, we develop a model, widely applicable across biological systems, for predicating costs associated with varying surveillance intensities across diverse road networks., We assumed that surveillance is conducted across a set of point locations. Resources needed to conduct surveillance include the fixed costs associated with surveying a point (e.g. cost of materials or labour time spent at the survey point) and variable costs that correspond to the expense of the time and distance travelled between points. We estimated travel time and distance between points as functions of surveillance intensity and road network characteristics using data from simulated least cost driving routes connecting points located on real-world road networks. Time and distance estimates were then combined with cost data from an actual gypsy moth Lymantria dispar surveillance programme in the state of Washington to predict per trap costs of surveillance across varying road network densities and surveillance intensities., Per point driving time, driving distance and total costs all decline with increasing survey point density and increasing road density. Surveillance intensity (planned point spacing) explains ˜94% of the average time driven per point and 97% of the distance driven per point - thus representing the primary explanatory variable. Incorporating road density and dead end road density explains relatively little additional variance in the model, although they improve goodness of fit., Synthesis and applications. This work predicts costs associated with surveillance of invasive species populations. We find that the cost per survey point diminishes with increasing survey point density and also depends on road network characteristics. When combined with maps for the relative risk of alien species establishment across landscapes and measures of surveillance efficacy dependent on effort, these cost predictions can increase efficiency of surveillance and eradication efforts for the gypsy moth and other invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]