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Glacier-bed characteristics that are poorly known and modeled are important in projected sea-level rise from ice-sheet changes under strong warming, especially in the Thwaites Glacier drainage of West Antarctica. Ocean warming may induce ice-shelf thinning or loss, or thinning of ice in estuarine zones, reducing backstress on grounded ice. Models indicate that, in response, more-nearly-plastic beds favor faster ice loss by causing larger flow acceleration, but more-nearly-viscous beds favor localized near-coastal thinning that could speed grounding-zone retreat into interior basins where marine-ice-sheet instability or cliff instability could develop and cause very rapid ice loss. Interpretation of available data indicates that the bed is spatially mosaicked, with both viscous and plastic regions. Flow against bedrock topography removes plastic lubricating tills, exposing bedrock that is eroded on up-glacier sides of obstacles to form moats with exposed bedrock tails extending downglacier adjacent to lee-side soft-till bedforms. Flow against topography also generates high-ice-pressure zones that prevent inflow of lubricating water over distances that scale with the obstacle size. Extending existing observations to sufficiently large regions, and developing models assimilating such data at the appropriate scale, present large, important research challenges that must be met to reliably project future forced sea-level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Basal channels, which form where buoyant plumes of ocean water and meltwater carve troughs upwards into ice-shelf bases, are widespread on Antarctic ice shelves. The formation of these features modulates ice-shelf basal melt by influencing the flow of buoyant plumes, and influences structural stability through concentration of strain and interactions with fractures. Because of these effects, and because basal channels can change rapidly, on timescales similar to those of ice-shelf evolution, constraining the impacts of basal channels on ice shelves is necessary for predicting future ice-shelf destabilization and retreat. We suggest that future research priorities should include constraining patterns and rates of basal channel change, determining mechanisms and detailed patterns of basal melt, and quantifying the influence that channel-related fractures have on ice-shelf stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Author(s): Joerg M. Schaefer (corresponding author) [1, 2]; Robert C. Finkel [1, 3]; Greg Balco [4]; Richard B. Alley [5]; Marc W. Caffee [6]; Jason P. Briner [7]; Nicolas E. [...]

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The first records of Greenland Vikings date to 985 CE. Archaeological evidence yields insight into how Vikings lived, yet drivers of their disappearance in the 15th century remain enigmatic. Research suggests a combination of environmental and socioeconomic factors, and the climatic shift from the Medieval Warm Period (~900 to 1250 CE) to the Little Ice Age (~1250 to 1900 CE) may have forced them to abandon Greenland. Glacial geomorphology and paleoclimate research suggest that the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet readvanced during Viking occupation, peaking in the Little Ice Age. Counterintuitively, the readvance caused sea-level rise near the ice margin due to increased gravitational attraction toward the ice sheet and crustal subsidence. We estimate ice growth in Southwestern Greenland using geomorphological indicators and lake core data from previous literature. We calculate the effect of ice growth on regional sea level by applying our ice history to a geophysical model of sea level with a resolution of ~1 km across Southwestern Greenland and compare the results to archaeological evidence. The results indicate that sea level rose up to ~3.3moutside the glaciation zone during Viking settlement, producing shoreline retreat of hundreds of meters. Sea-level rise was progressive and encompassed the entire Eastern Settlement. Moreover, pervasive flooding would have forced abandonment of many coastal sites. These processes likely contributed to the suite of vulnerabilities that led to Viking abandonment of Greenland. Sea-level change thus represents an integral, missing element of the Viking story. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacial hydraulic tremor (GHT) can be monitored to observe changes in location and distribution of water flow beneath glacial ice, allowing the spatiotemporal evolution of subglacial hydrology to be studied continuously and remotely. We use frequency-dependent polarization analysis (FDPA) to classify types of GHT and assess its spatio-temporal extent beneath Rhonegletscher, Switzerland, in a continuous seismic record through 2018 and 2019 at three ice-proximal bedrock-based seismometers. We determine the frequency bands composing the GHT and calculate back azimuth angles pointing to a previously known subglacial channel. We also inspect the relationship between GHT seismic power and water discharge from the glacier to compare daily and seasonal shifts with the observed GHT. We observed the seasonal shift from a distributed system to a channelized system, and our dataset allowed comparison of channel locations within and across seasons, with implications for sediment evacuation and bed erosion. The successful use of this method to assess GHT previously on Taku glacier (the methods of which this project follows) and now Rhonegletscher shows that existing ice-proximal passive seismic installations can be used to easily and continuously monitor subglacial hydraulic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric inversions provide estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes between the surface and atmosphere based on atmospheric CO2 concentration observations. The number of CO2 observations is projected to increase severalfold in the next decades from expanding in situ networks and next‐generation CO2‐observing satellites, providing both an opportunity and a challenge for inversions. This study introduces the TRACE Regional Atmosphere–Carbon Ensemble (TRACE) system, which employ an ensemble‐based simultaneous state and parameter estimation (ESSPE) approach to enable the assimilation of large volumes of observations for constraining CO2 flux parameters. TRACE uses an online full‐physics mesoscale atmospheric model and assimilates observations serially in a coupled atmosphere–carbon ensemble Kalman filter. The data assimilation system was tested in a series of observing system simulation experiments using in situ observations for a regional domain over North America in summer. Under ideal conditions with known prior flux parameter error covariances, TRACE reduced the error in domain‐integrated monthly CO2 fluxes by about 97% relative to the prior flux errors. In a more realistic scenario with unknown prior flux error statistics, the corresponding relative error reductions ranged from 80.6% to 88.5% depending on the specification of prior flux parameter error correlations. For regionally integrated fluxes on a spatial scale of 106 km2, the sum of absolute errors was reduced by 34.5%–50.9% relative to the prior flux errors. Moreover, TRACE produced posterior uncertainty estimates that were consistent with the true errors. These initial experiments show that the ESSPE approach in TRACE provides a promising method for advancing CO2 inversion techniques. Plain Language Summary: To gain a better understanding of the main drivers behind atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) variations and trends, it is essential to accurately quantify CO2 exchanges—also known as fluxes—between the atmosphere and other components of the Earth system. It is generally not possible to directly measure surface CO2 fluxes at regional scales; however, fluxes can be inferred from a network of atmospheric CO2 concentration observations combined with atmospheric modeling and inversion methods, which seek to find the most likely fluxes given prior knowledge and observational evidence. This paper presents a new regional inversion framework called TRACE Regional Atmosphere–Carbon Ensemble (TRACE) for deriving CO2 fluxes at high resolution in space and time. One of the major innovations in TRACE is the ensemble‐based dual state and parameter estimation approach, which makes it computationally feasible to ingest large volumes of observations into the system. A series of experiments were carried out in a domain over North America to test the new framework in a controlled setting. In the experiments, we used synthetic tower observations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations to constrain parameters controlling terrestrial biogenic and oceanic CO2 fluxes. The results show that TRACE is capable of accurately estimating both the magnitude and spatial pattern of regional CO2 fluxes. Key Points: An ensemble‐based simultaneous state and parameter estimation approach is introduced for regional CO2 flux inversionsThe new dual‐state TRACE Regional Atmosphere–Carbon Ensemble (TRACE) framework provides a flexible platform for conducting coupled atmosphere–carbon data assimilationControlled experiments show that TRACE is effective at constraining regional CO2 fluxes using in situ CO2 concentration observations [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacier-bed characteristics that are poorly known and modeled are important in projected sea-level rise from ice-sheet changes under strong warming, especially in the Thwaites Glacier drainage of West Antarctica. Ocean warming may induce ice-shelf thinning or loss, or thinning of ice in estuarine zones, reducing backstress on grounded ice. Models indicate that, in response, more-nearly-plastic beds favor faster ice loss by causing larger flow acceleration, but more-nearly-viscous beds favor localized near-coastal thinning that could speed grounding-zone retreat into interior basins where marine-ice-sheet instability or cliff instability could develop and cause very rapid ice loss. Interpretation of available data indicates that the bed is spatially mosaicked, with both viscous and plastic regions. Flow against bedrock topography removes plastic lubricating tills, exposing bedrock that is eroded on up-glacier sides of obstacles to form moats with exposed bedrock tails extending downglacier adjacent to lee-side soft-till bedforms. Flow against topography also generates high-ice-pressure zones that prevent inflow of lubricating water over distances that scale with the obstacle size. Extending existing observations to sufficiently large regions, and developing models assimilating such data at the appropriate scale, present large, important research challenges that must be met to reliably project future forced sea-level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine-terminating glaciers lose mass through melting and iceberg calving, and we find that meltwater drainage systems influence calving timing at Helheim Glacier, a tidewater glacier in East Greenland. Meltwater feeds a buoyant subglacial discharge plume at the terminus of Helheim Glacier, which rises along the glacial front and surfaces through the mélange. Here, we use high-resolution satellite and time-lapse imagery to observe the surface expression of this meltwater plume and how plume timing and location compare with that of calving and supraglacial meltwater pooling from 2011 to 2019. The plume consistently appeared at the central terminus even as the glacier advanced and retreated, fed by a well-established channelized drainage system with connections to supraglacial water. All full-thickness calving episodes, both tabular and non-tabular, were separated from the surfacing plume by either time or by space. We hypothesize that variability in subglacial hydrology and basal coupling drive this inverse relationship between subglacial discharge plumes and full-thickness calving. Surfacing plumes likely indicate a low-pressure subglacial drainage system and grounded terminus, while full-thickness calving occurrence reflects a terminus at or close to flotation. Our records of plume appearance and full-thickness calving therefore represent proxies for the grounding state of Helheim Glacier through time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major meltwater body exists beneath a tributary of Bindschadler Ice Stream, West Antarctica, in a region where subglacial lakes have not been mapped but near where rapid vertical motion of the ice sheet surface has suggested shifting of a subglacial water body. The water is trapped by a local reversal in ice-air surface slope arising from ice flow over variable basal topography and from the positive feedback of basal lubrication from the trapped water. Strong variations in the water content of the sediments upglacier of the water body arise from a similar process. These results are revealed by a novel application of the amplitude variation with offset (AVO) seismic technique. The existence of such water bodies and of the strong spatial variation in subglacial sediment properties is not captured in current models of subglacial hydrology, lubrication of ice stream motion, and sediment transport. Keywords: subglacial meltwater, West Antarctica, ice streams, seismic amplitude.

Carbon dioxide (C[O.sub.2]), nitrous oxide ([N.sub.2]O), and methane (C[H.sub.4]) concentrations of ice samples from a South American mountain glacier are larger than those in coeval polar ice cores. Of the six possible mechanisms that may cause the composition of air measured in ice cores to depart from that of the overlying troposphere (gravitational fractionation, thermal fractionation, gases trapped in refrozen meltwater, atmospheric heterogeneity, abiotic chemical reactions, and biologically mediated chemical reactions), only metabolism of a consortium of microorganisms within the ice can explain our data. Keywords: geomicrobiology, evolution, ice cores, ecology.

The flux of glacially derived bedload and the proportions of the suspended and bedload components carried by proglacial streams are highly debated. Published data indicate a large range--from 75%--in the bedload percentage of the total load. Two 'vents,' where supercooled subglacial meltwater and sediment are discharged, were sampled over the course of an entire melt season in order to quantify the flux of glacially delivered bedload at the Matanuska Glacier, Alaska. The bedload component contributed by these vents, for the one melt season monitored, is negligible. Furthermore, the bedload fluxes appear to be strongly supply limited, as shown by the poorly correlated discharge, bedload-flux magnitude, and grain-size caliber. Thus, in this case, any attempt to employ a predictive quantitative expression for coarse-sediment production based on discharge alone would be inaccurate. A nonglaciated basin proximal to the Matanuska Glacier terminus yielded higher bedload sediment fluxes and larger clast sizes than delivered by the two monitored vents. Such nonglaciated basins should not be overlooked as potentially major sources of coarse bedload that is reworked and incorporated into valley outwash. Keywords: bedload, sediment yield, sediment transport, glacial erosion, Matanuska Glacier, Alaska.

Rapid retreat of the Larsen A and B ice shelves has provided important clues about the ice shelf destabilization processes. The Larsen C Ice Shelf, the largest remaining ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula, may also be vulnerable to future collapse in a warming climate. Here, we utilize multisource satellite images collected over 1963–2020 to derive multidecadal time series of ice front, flow velocities, and critical rift features over Larsen C, with the aim of understanding the controls on its retreat. We complement these observations with modeling experiments using the Ice‐sheet and Sea‐level System Model to examine how front geometry conditions and mechanical weakening due to rifts affect ice shelf dynamics. Over the past six decades, Larsen C lost over 20% of its area, dominated by rift‐induced tabular iceberg calving. The Bawden Ice Rise and Gipps Ice Rise are critical areas for rift formation, through their impact on the longitudinal deviatoric stress field. Mechanical weakening around Gipps Ice Rise is found to be an important control on localized flow acceleration and the propagation of two rifts that caused a major calving event in 2017. Capturing the time‐varying effects of rifts on ice rigidity in ice shelf models is essential for making realistic predictions of ice shelf flow dynamics and instability. In the context of the Larsen A and Larsen B collapses, we infer a chronology of destabilization processes for embayment‐confined ice shelves, which provides a useful framework for understanding the historical and future destabilization of Antarctic ice shelves. Plain Language Summary: The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future sea‐level rise. This is due to our limited understanding of drivers and mechanisms triggering tipping points in ice‐sheet instability, and knowledge gaps regarding the retreat and disintegration of ice shelves. Understanding processes leading to ice shelf destabilization is critical to improving estimates of future Antarctic mass loss because of their important role in stabilizing ice flow. We studied Larsen C Ice Shelf changes using satellite data collected over 1963–2020, and conducted modeling experiments to elucidate the observed linkages between front retreat, flow acceleration, and rifts. We find the development of rifts near ice rises to be an important control on Larsen C front calving and flow acceleration in the past six decades. Rifts can affect each other by causing mechanical weakening and modifying stress fields. To predict future dynamical changes, it is necessary to account for this feedback and capture how ice rigidity changes over time in response to rift growth. If Larsen C retreats to the extent that the compressive arch ceases to exist, it will resemble the precollapsed Larsen B ice shelf, producing widespread flow accelerations in response to the backstress loss from ice rises. Key Points: Multidecadal satellite images and ice shelf modeling experiments were used to examine dynamic changes of Larsen C during 1963–2020Rift development near ice rises is an important control on ice shelf retreat and flow acceleration before the compressive arch is reachedCapturing the time‐varying effects of rifts on ice rigidity is needed to make realistic simulations of future ice shelf change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]