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Background: The spread of vector-borne infectious diseases is determined, among other things, by temperature. Thus, climate change will have an influence on their global distribution. In the future, Europe will approach the temperature optimum for the transmission of ZIKV and CHIKV. Climate scenarios and climate models can be used to depict future climatic changes and to draw conclusions about future risk areas for vector-borne infectious diseases., Methods: Based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, a geospatial analysis was carried out for the future temperature suitability of ZIKV and CHIKV in Europe. The results were presented in maps and the percentage of the affected areas calculated., Results: Due to rising temperatures, the risk areas for transmission of ZIKV and CHIKV spread in both RCP scenarios. For CHIKV transmission, Spain, Portugal, the Mediterranean coast and areas near the Black Sea are mainly affected. Due to high temperatures, large areas throughout Europe are at risk for ZIKV and CHIKV transmission., Conclusion: Temperature is only one of many factors influencing the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases. Nevertheless, the representation of risk areas on the basis of climate scenarios allows an assessment of future risk development. Monitoring and adaptation strategies are indispensable for coping with and containing possible future autochthonous transmissions and epidemics in Europe., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

The high prevalence of hay fever in Europe has raised concerns about the implications of climate change-induced higher temperatures on pollen production. Our study focuses on downy birch pollen production across Europe by analyzing 456 catkins during 2019-2021 in 37 International Phenological Gardens (IPG) spanning a large geographic gradient. As IPGs rely on genetically identical plants, we were able to reduce the effects of genetic variability. We studied the potential association with masting behavior and three model specifications based on mean and quantile regression to assess the impact of meteorology (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and atmospheric gases (e.g., ozone (O 3 ) and carbon-dioxide (CO 2 )) on pollen and catkin production, while controlling for tree age approximated by stem circumference. The results revealed a substantial geographic variability in mean pollen production, ranging from 1.9 to 2.5 million pollen grains per catkin. Regression analyses indicated that elevated average temperatures of the previous summer corresponded to increased pollen production, while higher O 3 levels led to a reduction. Additionally, catkins number was positively influenced by preceding summer's temperature and precipitation but negatively by O 3 levels. The investigation of quantile effects revealed that the impacts of mean temperature and O 3 levels from the previous summer varied throughout the conditional response distribution. We found that temperature predominantly affected trees characterized by a high pollen production. We therefore suggest that birches modulate their physiological processes to optimize pollen production under varying temperature regimes. In turn, O 3 levels negatively affected trees with pollen production levels exceeding the conditional median. We conclude that future temperature increase might exacerbate pollen production while other factors may modify (decrease in the case of O 3 and amplify for precipitation) this effect. Our comprehensive study sheds light on potential impacts of climate change on downy birch pollen production, which is crucial for birch reproduction and human health., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is a highly allergenic and invasive plant in Europe. Its pollen can be transported over large distances and has been recognized as a significant cause of hayfever and asthma (D'Amato et al., 2007; Burbach et al., 2009). To simulate production and dispersion of common ragweed pollen, we implement a pollen emission and transport module in the Regional Climate Model (RegCM) version 4 using the framework of the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5. In the online model environment where climate is integrated with dispersion and vegetation production, pollen emissions are calculated based on the modelling of plant distribution, pollen production, species-specific phenology, flowering probability, and flux response to meteorological conditions. A pollen tracer model is used to describe pollen advective transport, turbulent mixing, dry and wet deposition. The model is then applied and evaluated on a European domain for the period 2000-2010. To reduce the large uncertainties notably due to ragweed density distribution on pollen emission, a calibration based on airborne pollen observations is used. Resulting simulations show that the model captures the gross features of the pollen concentrations found in Europe, and reproduce reasonably both the spatial and temporal patterns of flowering season and associated pollen concentrations measured over Europe. The model can explain 68.6, 39.2, and 34.3 % of the observed variance in starting, central, and ending dates of the pollen season with associated root mean square error (RMSE) equal to 4.7, 3.9, and 7.0 days, respectively. The correlation between simulated and observed daily concentrations time series reaches 0.69. Statistical scores show that the model performs better over the central Europe source region where pollen loads are larger. From these simulations health risks associated common ragweed pollen spread are then evaluated through calculation of exposure time above health-relevant threshold levels. The total risk area with concentration above 5 grains m-3 takes up 29.5 % of domain. The longest exposure time occurs on Pannonian Plain, where the number of days per year with the daily concentration above 20 grains m-3 exceeds 30. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase in global average temperature, mainly due to the high rate of greenhouse gas emissions, has triggered severe global warming and climate change. In Europe, the building sector accounts for a significant portion of emissions and energy consumption, prompting attention on nearly-zero-energy buildings (nZEBs) and zero-carbon buildings, as they play a pivotal role in reaching the goal of climate neutrality by 2050. Passive systems offer a promising solution, optimizing energy usage by better adapting buildings to their local climates. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of passive heating and cooling techniques, exploring their contributions to contemporary architecture and showcasing their features and adaptability across different climates. Furthermore, the link between traditional and bioclimatic architecture is assessed. Recent years have witnessed a surge in publications on bioclimatic solar passive strategies, reflecting an intensified debate on climate change. Europe leads research in this area, aligned with initiatives like the Green Deal and Fit for 55. While dynamic simulation software is widely utilized for energy efficiency analysis, there remains limited integration of Building Information Modeling (BIM) and life cycle analysis (LCA) tools, which could enhance holistic assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil microbial biomass and activity strongly depend on land use, vegetation cover, climate, and soil physicochemical properties. In most cases, this dependence was assessed by one-to-one correlations while by employing network analysis, information about network robustness and the balance between stochasticity and determinism controlling connectivity, was revealed. In this study, we further elaborated on the hypothesis of Smith et al. (2021) that cropland soils depended more on climate variables and therefore are more vulnerable to climate change. We used the same dataset with that of Smith et al. (2021) that contains seasonal microbial, climate and soil variables collected from 881 soil points representing the main land uses in Europe: forests, grassland, cropland. We examined complete (both direct and indirect relationships) and incomplete networks (only direct relationships) and recorded higher robustness in the former. Partial Least Square results showed that on average more than 45% of microbial attributes' variability was predicted by climate and habitat drivers denoting medium to strong effect of habitat filtering. Network architecture slightly affected by season or land use type; it followed the core/periphery structure with positive and negative interactions and no hub nodes. Microbial attributes (biomass, activity and their ratio) mostly belong to core block together with Soil Organic Carbon (SOC), while climate and soil variables to periphery block with the exception of cropland networks, denoting the higher dependence between microbial and climate variables in these latter. All complete networks appeared robust except for cropland and forest in summer, a finding that disagrees with our initial hypothesis about cropland. Networks' connectivity was controlled stronger by stochasticity in forest than in croplands. The lack of human interventions in forest soils increase habitat homogeneity enhancing the influence of stochastic agents such as microbial unlimited dispersal and/or stochastic extinction. The increased stochasticity implies the necessity for proactive management actions., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Climate change is a pressing global challenge with profound implications for human health. Forest-based climate change mitigation strategies, such as afforestation, reforestation, and sustainable forest management, offer promising solutions to mitigate climate change and simultaneously yield substantial co-benefits for human health. The objective of this scoping review was to examine research trends related to the interdisciplinary nexus between forests as carbon sinks and human health co-benefits. We developed a conceptual framework model, supporting the inclusion of exposure pathways, such as recreational opportunities or aesthetic experiences, in the co-benefit context. We used a scoping review methodology to identify the proportion of European research on forest-based mitigation strategies that acknowledge the interconnection between mitigation strategies and human impacts. We also aimed to assess whether synergies and trade-offs between forest-based carbon sink capacity and human co-benefits has been analysed and quantified. From the initial 4,062 records retrieved, 349 reports analysed European forest management principles and factors related to climate change mitigation capacity. Of those, 97 studies acknowledged human co-benefits and 13 studies quantified the impacts on exposure pathways or health co-benefits and were included for full review. Our analysis demonstrates that there is potential for synergies related to optimising carbon sink capacity together with human co-benefits, but there is currently a lack of holistic research approaches assessing these interrelationships. We suggest enhanced interdisciplinary efforts, using for example multideterminant modelling approaches, to advance evidence and understanding of the forest and health nexus in the context of climate change mitigation., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

The assessment of risk posed by climate change in coastal cities encompasses multiple climate-related hazards. Sea-level rise, coastal flooding and coastal erosion are important hazards, but they are not the only ones. The varying availability and quality of data across cities hinders the ability to conduct holistic and standardized multi-hazard assessments. Indeed, there are far fewer studies on multiple hazards than on single hazards. Also, the comparability of existing methodologies becomes challenging, making it difficult to establish a cohesive understanding of the overall vulnerability and resilience of coastal cities. The use of indicators allows for a standardized and systematic evaluation of baseline hazards across different cities. The methodology developed in this work establishes a framework to assess a wide variety of climate-related hazards across diverse coastal cities, including sea-level rise, coastal flooding, coastal erosion, heavy rainfall, land flooding, droughts, extreme temperatures, heatwaves, cold spells, strong winds and landslides. Indicators are produced and results are compared and mapped for ten European coastal cities. The indicators are meticulously designed to be applicable across different geographical contexts in Europe. In this manner, the proposed approach allows interventions to be prioritized based on the severity and urgency of the specific risks faced by each city., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

The Mediterranean basin is one of the most vulnerable regions worldwide due to its population density, the concentration of economic activities along the coasts and borderline climatic balance. It is identified as one of the most critical erosion hotspots in Europe, mainly due to the degradation of coastal areas, overexploitation and unsustainable practices affecting beach tourism, agriculture and fishing. The region is also affected by other phenomena such as storms and floods, which are exacerbated by climate change. To mitigate and adapt to these environmental and climatic changes, Nature based Solutions (NbSs) are considered a promising step-forward. However, despite their global recognition in both research and policy, few scientific papers and documents on the state of NbSs implementation for coastal risk management in the Mediterranean exist. This paper aims to provide an understanding of the status of NbS adoption for coastal risk management in the Mediterranean through a literature review. Out of 162 scientific papers and documents, only 23 were found to be relevant to the study. Through the definition and support of an innovative matrix-based approach, the analysis of the state of adoption of NbSs have been performed. Despite the limited information on the state of the adoption of NbSs for coastal risk management in the Mediterranean due to the low numbers of scientific research and documents available, some key considerations have been revealed., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Complex dynamic models of carbon and nitrogen are often used to investigate the consequences of climate change on agricultural production and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. These models require high temporal resolution input data regarding the timing of field operations. This paper describes the Timelines model, which predicts the timelines of key field operations across Europe. The evaluation of the model suggests that it is broadly capable of simulating the timing of field operations for a range of arable crops at different locations. Systematic variations in the date of harvesting and in the timing of the first application of N fertiliser to winter crops need to be corrected and the prediction of soil workability and traffcability might enable the prediction of ploughing and applications of solid manure in preparation for spring crops. The data concerning the thermal time thresholds for sowing and harvesting underlying the model should be updated and extended to a wider range of crops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of climate and emissions changes on the deposition of reactive nitrogen (Nr) over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs) driven by the same global projection of future climate over the period 2000- 2050. Anthropogenic emissions for the years 2005 and 2050 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change, hemispheric boundary conditions and emissions, and to assess the robustness of the result across the different models. The results from these four CTMs clearly show that the main driver of future N deposition changes is the specified emission change. Under the specified emission scenario for 2050, emissions of oxidised nitrogen were reduced substantially, whereas emissions of NH3 increase to some extent, and these changes are largely reflected in the modelled concentrations and depositions. The lack of sulphur and oxidised nitrogen in the future atmosphere results in a much larger fraction of NHx being present in the form of gaseous ammonia. Predictions for wet and total deposition were broadly consistent, although the three fine-scale models resolve European emission areas and changes better than the hemispheric-scale model. The biggest difference in the models is for predictions of individual N-compounds. One model (EMEP) was used to explore changes in critical 20 loads, also in conjunction with speculative climate-induced increases in NH3 emissions. These calculations suggest that the area of ecosystems which exceed critical loads is reduced from 64% for year 2005 emissions levels to 50% for currently estimated 2050 levels. A possible climate-induced increase in NH3 emissions could worsen the situation, with areas exceeded increasing again to 57%(for a 30%NH3 emission increase). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The responses of crop functioning to changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) could have large effects on food production, and impact carbon, water and energy fluxes, causing feedbacks to climate. To simulate the responses of temperate crops to changing climate and [CO2], accounting for the specific phenology of crops mediated by management practice, we present here the development of a process-oriented terrestrial biogeochemical model named ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0), which integrates a generic crop phenology and harvest module and a very simple parameterization of nitrogen fertilization, into the land surface model (LSM) ORCHIDEEv196, in order to simulate biophysical and biochemical interactions in croplands, as well as plant productivity and harvested yield. The model is applicable for a range of temperate crops, but it is tested here for maize and winter wheat, with the phenological parameterizations of two European varieties originating from the STICS agronomical model. We evaluate the ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0) model against eddy covariance and biometric measurements at 7 winter wheat and maize sites in Europe. The specific ecosystem variables used in the evaluation are CO2 fluxes (NEE), latent heat and sensible heat fluxes. Additional measurements of leaf area index (LAI), aboveground biomass and yield are used as well. Evaluation results reveal that ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0) reproduces the observed timing of crop development stages and the amplitude of pertaining LAI changes in contrast to ORCHIDEEv196 in which by default crops have the same phenology than grass. A near-halving of the root mean square error of LAI from 2.38 ± 0.77 to 1.08 ± 0.34 m² m-2 is obtained between ORCHIDEEv196 and ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0) across the 7 study sites. Improved crop phenology and carbon allocation lead to a general good match between modelled and observed aboveground biomass (with a normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 11.0-54.2%), crop yield, as well as of the daily carbon and energy fluxes with NRMSE of ~9.0-20.1 and ~9.4-22.3 % for NEE, and sensible and latent heat fluxes, respectively. The model data mistfit for energy fluxes are within uncertainties of the measurements, which themselves show an incomplete energy balance closure within the range 80.6-86.3 %. The remaining discrepancies between modelled and observed LAI and other variables at specific sites are partly attributable to unrealistic representation of management events. In addition, ORCHIDEE-CROP (v0) is shown to have the ability to capture the spatial gradients of carbon and energy-related variables, such as gross primary productivity, NEE, sensible heat fluxes and latent heat fluxes, across the sites in Europe, an important requirement for future spatially explicit simulations. Further improvement of the model with an explicit parameterization of nutrition dynamics and of management, is expected to improve its predictive ability to simulate croplands in an Earth System Model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large shortcoming of current chemistry transport models for simulating the fate of ammonia in the atmosphere is the lack of a description of the bi-directional surfaceatmosphere exchange. In this paper, results of an update of the dry deposition module DEPAC in the LOTOS-EUROS model are discussed. It is shown that with the new description, which includes bi-directional surface-atmosphere exchange, the modeled ammonia concentrations increase almost everywhere, in particular in agricultural source areas. The reason is that by using a compensation point the ammonia life time and transport distance is increased. As a consequence, deposition of ammonia and ammonium decreases in agricultural source areas, while it increases in large nature areas and remote regions especially in Southern Scandinavia. The inclusion of a compensation point for water reduces the dry deposition over sea and allows reproducing the observed marine background concentrations at coastal locations to a better extend. A comparison with measurements shows that the model results better represent the measured ammonia concentrations. The concentrations in nature areas are slightly overestimated, while the concentrations in agricultural source areas are still underestimated. Although the introduction of the compensation point improves the model performance, the modeling of ammonia remains challenging. Important aspects are emission patterns in space and time as well as a proper approach to deal with the high concentration gradients in relation to model resolution. In short, the inclusion of a bi-directional surface atmosphere exchange is a significant step forward for modeling ammonia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and land management practices are projected to significantly affect soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching from soils. In this modelling study, we adopted the Century model to simulate past (1906-2012), present, and future (2013-2100) SOC and DOC levels for sandy and loamy soils typical for Northwestern European conditions under three land use types (forest, grassland and arable land) and several future scenarios addressing climate change and land management change. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the Century model has been applied to assess the effects of climate change and land management on DOC concentrations and leaching rates, which, in combination with SOC, play a major role in metal transport through soil. The simulated current SOC levels were generally in line with the observed values for the different kinds of soil and land use types. The climate change scenarios result in a decrease in both SOC and DOC for the agricultural systems, whereas for the forest systems, SOC is projected to slightly increase and DOC to decrease. An analysis of the sole effects of changes in temperature and changes in precipitation showed that, for SOC, the temperature effect predominates over the precipitation effect, whereas for DOC, the precipitation effect is more prominent. A reduction in the application rates of fertilizers under the land management scenario leads to a decrease in the SOC stocks and the DOC leaching rates for the arable land systems, but has a negligible effect on SOC and DOC levels for the grassland systems. Our study demonstrated the ability of the Century model to simulate climate change and agricultural management effects on SOC dynamics and DOC leaching, providing a robust tool for the assessment of carbon sequestration and the implications for contaminant transport in soils. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Zootoxins are produced by venomous and poisonous species and are an important cause of poisoning in companion animals and livestock in Europe. Little information about the incidence of zootoxin poisoning is available in Europe, with only a few case reports and review papers being published. This review presents the most important zootoxins produced by European venomous and poisonous animal species responsible for poisoning episodes in companion animals and livestock. The main zootoxin-producing animal species, components of the toxins/venoms and their clinical effects are presented. The most common zootoxicoses involve terrestrial zootoxins excreted by the common toad, the fire salamander, the pine processionary caterpillar, and vipers. The lack of a centralized reporting/poison control system in Europe makes the evaluation of the epidemiology of zootoxin-induced poisonings extremely difficult. Even if there are many anecdotal reports in the veterinary community about the exposure of domestic animals to terrestrial and marine zootoxins, the number of published papers regarding these toxicoses is low. Climate change and its consequences regarding species distribution and human-mediated transportation are responsible for the emerging nature of some intoxications in which zootoxins are involved. Although new venomous or poisonous animal species have emerged in regions where they were previously unreported, zootoxins produced by native species remain the main concern in Europe. The diversity of poisonous and venomous animal species and the emerging nature of certain poisonings warrant the continuous update to such knowledge by veterinary professionals and animal owners. This review offers an overview about zootoxin-related poisonings in domestic animals in Europe and also provides important information from a health perspective.

The silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) is among the most valuable conifers in Europe for ecological and economic reasons. Throughout the course of history, primarily in the 20th century, its share in stands has been declining due to ill-suited management practices, especially clear-cut management, air pollution (SO2 and NOX emissions), and wildlife-induced damage. This literature review compiles findings from 338 scientific papers. It describes futures for silver fir and its distribution, ecological requirements, threats and diseases, seed production and nurseries, and forest management practices with emphasis on ongoing climate change. Based on recent knowledge of fir ecology and population dynamics, small-scale shelterwood and selection management have been introduced in fir stands, which have also stabilized them. Fir is an essential species for maintaining high stability and biodiversity, especially on planosols and in waterlogged habitats. Owing to its shade tolerance and environmental plasticity, it can coexist very well with many tree species in mixtures, which can increase the productive potential of stands within the natural range in Europe. The average stand volume of mature fir stands ranges from 237–657 m3 ha−1. For its successful natural regeneration, it is essential to reduce cloven-hoofed game and thus prevent bud browsing damage. The attractiveness of fir in terms of heavy browsing is the highest of all conifers (52% damage). On the other hand, fir is a species relatively resistant to bark stripping and the spread of secondary rot compared with Norway spruce (Picea abies [L.] Karst.). Under global climate change, fir is expected to shift to higher elevations with sufficient precipitation, while in the southern part of its natural range or at lower elevations, outside water-influenced habitats, it is likely to decline. Climate change is intricately linked to the heightened prevalence of forest pathogens with significant damage potential in Europe, necessitating careful consideration and strategic adaptation within management practices of fir forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Starting from the relationship between urban planning and mobility management, TeMA has gradually expanded the view of the covered topics, always remaining in the groove of rigorous scientific in-depth analysis. This section of the Journal, Review Notes, is the expression of continuously updating emerging topics concerning relationships between urban planning, mobility and environment, through a collection of short scientific papers written by young researchers. The Review Notes are made of four parts. Each section examines a specific aspect of the broader information storage within the main interests of TeMA Journal. In particular, the Urban Practices section aims at presenting recent advancements on relevant topics that underline the challenges that the cities have to face. This note provides an overview of the challenges that global warming poses and the risks in terms of climate change that it generates for territories and cities. The challenges that adaptation to climate change commonly faces are outlined, and a brief review of European case studies is carried out. Finally, the results of the review are discussed highlighting some key threads of climate adaptation practices and three significant examples of climate change adaptation in urban areas are reported, within a perspective of integration and sharing of know-how on the topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, up to 30% of global carbon emission is estimated to originate from land use and land changes. Existing historic land change reconstructions on the European scale do not sufficiently meet the requirements of greenhouse gas (GHG) and climate assessments, due to insufficient spatial and thematic detail and the consideration of various land change types. This paper investigates if the combination of different data sources, more detailed modeling techniques and the integration of land conversion types allow us to create accurate, high resolution historic land change data for Europe suited for the needs of GHG and climate assessments. We validated our reconstruction with historic aerial photographs from 1950 and 1990 for 73 sample sites across Europe and compared it with other land reconstructions like Klein Goldewijk et al. (2010, 2011), Ramankutty and Foley (1999), Pongratz et al. (2008) and Hurtt et al. (2006). The results indicate that almost 700 000 km² (15.5 %) of land cover in Europe changes over the period 1950 to 2010, an area similar to France. In Southern Europe the relative amount was almost 3.5% higher than average (19 %). Based on the results the specific types of conversion, hot-spots of change and their relation to political decisions and socioeconomic transitions were studied. The analysis indicate that the main drivers of land change over the studied period were urbanization, the reforestation program after the timber shortage since the Second World War, the fall of the Iron Curtain, Common Agricultural Policy and accompanying afforestation actions of the EU. Compared to existing land cover reconstructions, the new method takes stock of the harmonization of different datasets by achieving a high spatial resolution and regional detail with a full coverage of different land categories. These characteristic allow the data to be used to support and improve ongoing GHG inventories and climate research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses a study conducted to update ECOCLIMAP-I in Europe. It is evident that ECOCLIMAP-I is a database designed to cater needs of meteorological community to examine natural and managed ecosystems in association with weather forecasting and climate change modelling. It discusses methods, datasets and characteristics of producing ECOCLIMAPII/Europe.

Fire weather indices predict fire extent from meteorological conditions assuming a monotonic function; this approach is frequently used to predict future fire patterns under climate change scenarios using linear extrapolation. However, the relationship between weather and fire extent may potentially depend on the existence of fuel humidity thresholds above which this relationship changes dramatically, challenging this statistical approach. Here we combine the continuous and the threshold approaches to analyze satellite-detected fires in Europe during 2001-2010 in relation to meteorological conditions, showing that fire size response to increasing dryness follows a ramp function, i.e. with two plateaus separated by a phase of monotonic increase. This study confirms that at a continental and a high-resolution temporal scales, large fires are very unlikely to occur under moist conditions, but it also reveals that fire size stops to be controlled by fuel humidity above a given threshold of dryness. Thus, fuel humidity control only applies when fire is not limited by other factors such as fuel load, as large fires are virtually absent in dry regions with less than 500mm of average annual rainfall, i.e. where fuel amount is insufficient. In regions with sufficient fuel, other factors such as fire suppression or fuel discontinuity can impede large fires even under very dry weather conditions. These findings are relevant under current climatic trends in which the fire season length, in terms of number of days with DC (drought code) values above the observed thresholds (break points), is increasing in many parts of the Mediterranean, while it is decreasing in Eastern Europe and remains unchanged in Central Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and air pollution, interact with altering forest management and landuse change to produce short and long-term changes to forest in Europe. The impact of these changes on the forest greenhouse gas (GHG) balance is currently difficult to predict. To improve the mechanistic understanding of the ongoing changes, we studied the response of GHG (N2O, CH4) exchange from forest soils at twelve experimental or natural gradient forest sites, representing anticipated future forest change. The experimental manipulations one or more per site included nitrogen (N) addition (4 sites), changes of climate (temperature, 1 site; precipitation, 2 sites), soil hydrology (3 sites), harvest intensity (1 site), wood ash fertilization (1 site), pH gradient in peat (1 site) and afforestation of cropland (1 site). In most of the investigated treatments N2O emissions increased by 7±3 (range 0-30) µg N2O-N m-2 h-1 across all treatments on mineral soils, but by up to 10 times the mineral soil maximum on an acidic organic soil. Soil moisture together with mineral soil C/N ratio and pH were found to significantly influence N2O emissions across all treatments. Emissions increased with N availability and decreased with soil C/N ratio, especially in interaction with increased soil moisture. High pH reduced the formation of N2O, even under otherwise favourable soil conditions. Oxidation (uptake) of CH4 was reduced from 16±2 to 4±6 µg CH4-C m-2 h-1 by the investigated treatments. The CH4 exchange was significantly influenced by soil moisture and soil C/N ratio across all treatments, and CH4 emissions occurred only in wet or water-saturated conditions. For most of the investigated forest manipulations or natural gradients, the response of both N2O and CH4 fluxes was towards reducing the overall GHG forest sink. The most resilient forests were dry Mediterranean forests, as well as forests with high soil C/N ratio or high soil pH. Mitigation strategies may focus on (I) sustainable management of wet forest areas and forested peat lands, (ii) continuous forest cover management, (iii) reducing atmospheric N input and, thus, N availability, and (iv) improving neutralisation capacity of acid soils (e.g. wood ash application). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on potential feedback mechanism regarding land use and climate change. It states that potential regional feedbacks were explored in four hot-spots including the Amazon Basin, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and Europe. It mentions that in Amazon, drought events can lead to further reduction of rainfall when the recycling processes of water are affected.

In the context of our rapidly evolving word, where pressing issues like anthropogenic climate change and accelerating urbanization demand innovative solutions, a critical evaluation of the potential and impact of digital technologies is necessary. Climate-neutral governance entails the implementation of governmental instruments and tools designed and used to harmonize short-term policy actions with a long-term vision of achieving a climate-neutral state. This fact aims to facilitate evidence-based decision-making, foster inter-sectoral coordination, enhance transparency, and cultivate public legitimacy for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. This paper presents a focused analysis of SmartCities projects and their implementation across diverse urban centers and nations. Our objective is to provide a comprehensive overview, highlighting recent advancements in the realm of smart and climate-neutral city governance. Furthermore, we conduct a comprehensive inquiry into Romania's legislative framework, encompassing the regulations and strategies pertaining to energy, climate change, and urban development. This analysis is complemented by an exploration of the evolving perspectives and legislative proposals that are likely to shape the future course of action in these domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nature-Based Solutions concepts and practices are being used worldwide as part of attempts to address societal challenges but have also been criticised for not dealing with deeper transformations needed to face urgent issues including biodiversity loss, climate change and inclusion. In this paper, we explore how an inclusive, integrated and long-sighted approach, emphasising a more radical integration of nature within cities, might support the transformations needed to endure major contemporary challenges. Addressing important emerging critiques of Nature-Based Solutions, we consider the potential of a more incisive form of Nature-Based Thinking (NBT) in cities, based on more holistic perspectives. The paper draws on a reflective and iterative research process that engaged both the research and practice communities through a symposium and a series of futures workshops that together explored the potential of NBT to develop future nature-cities relations in Europe and Latin America. The results of the reflective process suggest that notions of nature with people—not for people— new organisational structures, and the intention and capacity to apply long-term perspectives, are needed when planning for NBS interventions aimed at sustainable urban development. This includes developing a cultural-structural change based on new and inclusive understandings of human–nature relations, and novel governance paradigms that allow cross-sectoral coordination and engagement of local stakeholders beyond formal organisational structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the interannual variability (IAV) of the terrestrial productivity and its sensitivity to climate is crucial for improving carbon budget predictions. However, the influence of climate and other mechanisms underlying the spatiotemporal patterns of IAV of productivity are not well understood. In this study we investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of IAV of historical observations of crop yields, tree ring width, remote sensing retrievals of FAPAR and NDVI, and other variables relevant to the terrestrial productivity in Europe in tandem with a set of climate variables. Our results reveal distinct spatial patterns in the IAV of most variables linked to terrestrial productivity. In particular, we find higher IAV in water-limited regions of Europe (Mediterranean and temperate continental Europe) compared to other regions. Our results further indicate that variations in the water balance during active growing season exert a more pronounced and direct effect than variations of temperature on explaining the spatial patterns in IAV of productivity related variables in temperate Europe. We also observe a temporally increasing trend in the IAV of terrestrial productivity and an increasing sensitivity of productivity to water availability in dry regions of Europe, which is likely attributable to the recently increased IAV of water availability in these regions. These findings suggest nonlinear responses of carbon fluxes to climate variability in Europe and that the IAV of terrestrial productivity has become more sensitive and more vulnerable to changes in water availability in the dry regions in Europe. The changing climate sensitivity of terrestrial productivity accompanied by the changing IAV of climate could impact carbon stocks and the net carbon balance of European ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is focused on the description of the black mulberry (Morus nigra), its ecology and the possibilities of its in vitro propagation for quick and efficient obtaining of a large quantity of clones in a relatively short time for subsequent planting or sale. Due to ongoing climate change, it is considerable to use mulberry trees in horticulture, agroforestry and forestry under the conditions of Central Europe. The use of the mulberry is conditioned by the availability of planting stock. A proven and successful method of mulberry propagation is in vitro cultivation. Based on literature review, the recommended composition of planting media and other procedures for in vitro cultivation of mulberries are presented. The aim of the article is to inform foresters about the possibilities of using the black mulberry tree in our conditions and, using its example, to point out the possibility of using non-standard species of trees both as part of adaptation measures to the expected climate change and as one of the options for increasing the biodiversity of the landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to numerous reports, the year 2023 is considered the hottest year on record, as a series of natural disasters have struck especially in countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea. These calamities, such as vegetation fires and floods like the recent ones in Greece, are not just a localised threat, but one that goes beyond the perimeter of countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea, as these uncommon occurrences of nature are also being observed in other parts of the world. Considering that this sort of threat is highly unpredictable and requires specific measures, this paper aims to assess the effects of the recent natural disasters in Southern Europe and to identify measures taken by Greece to counter and mitigate the effects of the mentioned calamities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a solution to mitigate the effects of climate change, scientists have been looking for more environmentally friendly energy production alternatives, so, since the 2000s, renewable energy production has increased across Europe. Climate change has a negative impact on our planet, with increased emissions of greenhouse gases contributing to global warming. In this context, biogas has become a promising solution for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving environmental quality. The purpose of the study is to review the evolution of research and development in this field, identify trends and gaps in existing knowledge, and assess the impact and significance of published research. In this sense, a bibliometric analysis was carried out, based on the topics "renewable energy" and "biogas", in which VosViewer software was used to create maps. The research results show that existing policies worldwide encourage transfer and synergy between researchers from different countries, achieving important results. Practically, researches and examples of good practise show that biogas can be a viable solution to mitigate the effects of climate change, and in the coming decades, under the conditions of the population growth estimates materialization, we will most likely witness an intensification of agriculture to ensure the population's food needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In front of escalating resource limitations in agriculture, this study emphasizes the critical need for efficient crop cultivation. Focusing particularly on tomatoes, a staple in global diets, the research aims to sustenably enhance productivity. Recognizing productivity as a key economic indicator, the study highlights the pivotal role of energyefficient practices in addressing challenges posed by climate change and depleting natural resources. By optimizing energy use in agricultural processes, this research not only improves economic efficiency but also positions the sector for resilience and innovation in a resource-constrained environment. Through an in-depth analysis of data from Eurostat covering the 2014-2022 period, we trace the trends in greenhouse tomato cultivation across Europe, evaluating changes in cultivation areas and productivity. This research offers insights into how different European countries have adapted their agricultural practices in response to environmental and economic pressures and in the same time, it underscores the need for continued innovation and adaptation in agricultural practices to meet the demands of a growing global population under increasingly constrained environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number and intensity of Saharan dust storm events identified in Europe has been increasing over the last decade. This can be explained by the role of ongoing climate change. An extension of previous studies covering a 40-year period is presented in this paper, with new data on the frequency, synoptic meteorological background, source areas, grain size, grain shape and general mineralogy of deposited dust for the period 2019-2023 in the Carpathian Basin. A total of 55 dust storm episodes have been identified in the region over the five-year period, which is significantly higher than the long-term average. The classification based on synoptic meteorological background clearly showed that the frequency of circulation types with a more pronounced meridional component increased and dust material reached further north more frequently than before. In several cases, large amounts of dust were deposited, from which samples were collected and subjected to detailed granulometric analysis. The varied grain size data showed that coarse silt (20-62.5 µm) and sand (62.5 < µm) fractions were also present in large quantities in the transported dust material. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Regulation on European Crowdfunding Services Providers for Business (ECSPR), adopted in October 2020, has started applying on 10 March 2022, in a period in history regarded as particularly complex for the entire world and for Europe because of the post-pandemic effects. Before that, the UK has decided to leave the European dream and the difficult negotiations have left the financial sector with uncertainty about the legal treatment of most financial services, including crowdfunding operations, across such new borders. At the same time, the EU is moving forward in its integration process, adopting several actions within the Capital Markets Union (CMU) action plan: one of the main goals of the CMU is indeed the adaptation of existing financial regulation to SMEs' needs. Some legislative initiatives proposed, such as the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR), can be regarded as potentially favouring crowdfunding platforms' competitors, since they all provide services and in particular financing to SMEs. Moreover, climate change effects are becoming more and more severe, also in Europe, forcing international, European and national regulators to implement reforms and sustainable considerations in financial regulation. Considering this background, it is important to assess whether the ECSPR will be able to show the resilience needed to face all these challenges, with its text presenting already adequate responses or tools to adapt. The present paper will analyse the most relevant parts of the ECSPR trying to assess whether such newly adopted regime has the potential, considering its architecture, scope and specific rules, to successfully deal with and overcome the highlighted challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Spring in Europe has been trending earlier for almost half a century. Long-distance migrant birds, such as the Willow Warbler and Pied Flycatcher, which breed in Europe, have arrived earlier too. It is broadly accepted that warming springs in temperate regions explain the earlier arrival of migrants. However, migration started weeks earlier and thousands of kilometres away. There must be additional cues elsewhere triggering migration. Meteorologists have developed measures of atmospheric circulation which are related to climate variability in wide regions. One of them is the Southern Oscillation Index, which reflects El Niño/La Niña that cause droughts and floods in the southern hemisphere. Other atmospheric circulation patterns, measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and Indian Ocean Dipole, help predict total rainfall for a whole season in various parts of Africa and Europe. Good rains are associated with plant growth and with insect abundance. Insects provide food for most of these migrants. Therefore, this paper asks the question: "Is the timing of arrival of long-distance migrants in spring related to the climates they experience in the places where they are over the year prior to arrival in Europe?" This paper says the answer is "Yes". Earlier springs in temperate regions since the 1980s, attributed to climate change, are thought to influence the earlier arrival of long-distance migrant passerines. However, this migration was initiated weeks earlier in Africa, where the Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation drive climatic variability, and may additionally influence the migrants. Multiple regressions investigated whether 15 indices of climate in Africa and Europe explained the variability in timing of arrival for seven trans-Saharan migrants. Our response variable was Annual Anomaly (AA), derived from standardized mistnetting from 1982–2021 at Bukowo, Polish Baltic Sea. For each species, the best models explained a considerable part of the annual variation in the timing of spring's arrival by two to seven climate variables. For five species, the models included variables related to temperature or precipitation in the Sahel. Similarly, the models included variables related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (for four species), Indian Ocean Dipole (three), and Southern Oscillation (three). All included the Scandinavian Pattern in the previous summer. Our conclusion is that climate variables operating on long-distance migrants in the areas where they are present in the preceding year drive the phenological variation of spring migration. These results have implications for our understanding of carry-over effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Potential mobilization and transport of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) in subarctic river basins towards the oceans is enormous, because 23-48% of the worlds Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) is stored in northern regions. As climate changes, the amount and composition of DOC exported from these basins are expected to change. The transfer of organic carbon between soils and rivers results in fractionation of organic carbon compounds. The aim of this research is to determine the DOC concentrations, its fractions, i.e. humic (HA), fulvic (FA), and hydrophilic (HY) acids, and soil characteristics that influence the DOC sorptive properties of different soil types within a tundra and taiga catchment of Northern European Russia. DOC in taiga and tundra soil profiles (soil solution) consisted only of HY and FA, where HY became more abundant with increasing depth. Adsorption of DOC on mineral phases is the key geochemical process for release and removal of DOC from potentially soluble carbon pool. We found that adsorbed organic carbon may desorb easily and can release DOC quickly, without being dependent on mineralization and degradation. Although Extractable Organic Carbon (EOC) comprise only a small part of SOC, it is a significant buffering pool for DOC. We found that about 80-90% of released EOC was previously adsorbed. Fractionation of EOC is also influenced by the fact that predominantly HA and FA adsorbed to soil and therefore also are the main compounds released when desorbed. Flowpaths vary between taiga and tundra and through seasons, which likely affects DOC concentration found in streams. As climate changes, also flowpaths of water through soils may change, especially in tundra caused by thawing soils. Therefore, adsorptive properties of thawing soils exert a major control on DOC leaching to rivers. To better understand the process of DOC ad- and de-sorption in soils, process based soil chemical modelling, which could bring more insight in solution speciation, mineral solubility, and adsorption reactions, is appropriate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High concentration levels of air pollutants may cause damage to plants, animals, and the health of some groups of human beings. Therefore, it is important to investigate different topics related to the high air pollution levels and to find reliable answers to the questions about the possible damages, which might take place when these levels exceed some limits. A few of the numerous questions, the answers of which are highly desirable, are listed below: (a) When are the air pollution levels dangerous? (b) What is the reason for the increased air pollution levels? (c) How can the air pollution levels be decreased? (d) Will the future climate changes result in higher and more dangerous air pollution levels? It is necessary to study carefully many issues connected with the distribution of air pollutants in a given region and with the reasons for the increases of the concentrations to high levels, which might be damaging. In order to do this, it is necessary to develop a Digital Twin of all relevant physical processes in the atmosphere and to use after that this tool in different applications. Such a tool, its name is DIGITAL AIR, has been created. Digital Twins are becoming more and more popular). Many complex problems, arising taking place in very complicated surroundings, can be handled and resolved successfully by applying Digital Twins. The preparation of such a digital tool as well as its practical implementation in the treatment of a special problem, the increase of some potentially dangerous ozone levels, will be discussed and tested in this paper. The Unified Danish Eulerian Model (UNI-DEM) is a very important part of DIGITAL AIR. This mathematical model, UNI-DEM, can be applied in many different studies related to damaging effects caused by high air pollution levels. We shall use it in this paper to get a reliable answer to a very special but extremely important question: will the future climatic changes lead to an increase in the ozone pollution levels in Bulgaria and Europe, which can potentially become dangerous for human health? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of global warming on plant phenology is the subject of a growing number of studies. However, most of these do not focus on woody species, and few examine the entire annual phenological cycle of woody species. In this paper, we explore the phenological pattern of seven woody species native to Europe under ex situ conditions for 3 years, in two urban areas with different mesoclimates. The average temperature differs by 1.81 °C between the two sites. The investigated plants were clonally identical for each species, and the exact same care protocol was kept at both sites. Despite the large variation in the phenological pattern between years, during the study, spring phenophases occurred earlier, while the examined autumn phenophases were delayed at the site observing a higher average temperature. The phenological sensitivity of flowering was significantly higher than that of leaf bud burst. The growing season was 14.8 days longer at the site with a higher average temperature. In most cases, a significant correlation was obtained between the examined phenophases and climatic factors at both sites. Among the autumn phenophases, the strongest correlation was found between the maximum temperature between July and October and the beginning of leaf coloring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the correlation between respondents concerns regarding climate change, their eagerness to adopt an AFV and their responsiveness to incentives. Seen as the solution for a cleaner mobility and greenhouse gas reduction in urban areas globally, alternative fuel vehicles (AFV) still own a modest market share in Europe. Among many reasons, the purchase price seems to be one of the most challenging to overcome. Incentives are considered a solution to mitigate the price barrier. The results of a survey carried out by the authors to 444 respondents led the authors to conclude that participants agree that AFVs contribute to tackle climate change. They also deduced that the vehicles price represents an offside for the lower-income households. Furthermore, the study revealed that the latter are less prone to buy an alternative fuel vehicle than higher-income families (59% against 80%). The authors also inferred that generally, households are more receptive to incentives or benefits based on up-front discounts or exemptions, directly impacting price and immediate savings, such as taxes exemption (value added tax and circulation tax), fuel discounts and purchase incentives. However, some differences were observed between income segments. For instance, the reduction or exemption of loan interests is among the most popular incentives for lower revenues, whilst higher revenues favour scrappage and non-financial incentives. Finally, in line with other studies, as upper incomes are less dependent on incentives and benefits to carry out the purchase, the authors put forward a differential and progressive approach for incentive instruments targeting lower revenues, allowing broader and equitable access to low carbon technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming climate and precipitation changes induce notable shifts in climate zones. In this study, the latest generation of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the previous generation CMIP5 under high‐emission scenarios are used together with observations and applied to the Köppen‐Geiger climate classification. The aim is to shed light on how projected warming and changes in precipitation will influence future climate zones and their associated ecosystems while revealing differences between the two model generations. Compared to CMIP5 models, CMIP6 models exhibit slightly improved performance in replicating the observed Köppen‐Geiger map for the historical (1976–2005) period and similar inter‐model agreement for the future. The models show major changes in climate zones with a range of projections depending on which ensemble subset is used: 37.9%–48.1% of the global land area is projected to change climate zone by the end of the century, with the most pronounced changes expected over Europe (71.4%–88.6%) and North America (51.2%–65.8%). CMIP6 models project a higher rate of areal climate zone change (km2/year) throughout the 21st century, which is mainly driven by their greater global land warming rates. Using a likely equilibrium climate sensitivity subset of CMIP6 models that is consistent with the latest evidence constrains the climate zone shifts, and their projections better match the results of CMIP5 simulations. Although the high warming rates of some CMIP6 models are less credible, the risks associated with them are greater, and they heighten the need for urgent action to preserve terrestrial ecosystems. Plain Language Summary: Köppen‐Geiger climate classification is a tool to map regional climate zones based on a region's temperature and precipitation. In recent decades, increasing temperatures and changing precipitation trends have started to affect the distribution of those climate zones, and more extensive changes are expected throughout the 21st century. In this paper, we assess the observed and expected changes in the global distribution of Köppen‐Geiger climate zones using observations along with the latest and the previous generation of global climate model projections. We find that shifts in climate zones are more pronounced in the latest generation of models due to their questionable greater global warming rate projections. Depending on which subset of model projections is used, up to half of the Earth's land area faces the risk of shifting to a different climate zone by the end of the century, with the greatest changes expected in Europe and North America. The rate of change (affected area per year) is also projected to accelerate through the 21st century, suggesting that vulnerable species and agricultural practices might have less time to adapt to changes in climate zones than previously projected. Key Points: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) exhibits slightly improved performance in simulating the globally observed historical Köppen‐Geiger climate zones compared to CMIP5By the end of the century, 38%–48% of the global land area is projected to be in a different climate zone than todayThe rate of climate zone change is projected to accelerate, with more pronounced rates in CMIP6 due to considerably higher warming rates [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, instrumental observations have become increasingly important in climate research, allowing past daily-to-decadal climate variability and weather extremes to be explored in greater detail. The 18th century saw the formation of several short-lived meteorological networks of which the one organised by the Societas Meteorologica Palatina is arguably the most well known. This network stood out as one of the few that efficiently managed to control its members, integrating, refining, and publishing measurements taken from numerous stations around Europe and beyond. Although much has been written about the network in both history, science, and individual prominent series used for climatological studies, the actual measurements have not yet been digitised and published in extenso. This paper represents an important step towards filling this perceived gap in research. Here, we provide an inventory listing the availability of observed variables for the 37 stations that belonged to the society's network and discuss their historical context. Most of these observations have been digitised, and a considerable fraction has been converted and formatted. In this paper, we focus on the temperature and pressure measurements, which have been corrected and homogenised. We then demonstrate their potential for climate research by analysing two cases of extreme weather. The recovered series will have wide applications and could contribute to a better understanding of the mechanisms behind climatic variations and extremes as well as the societal reactions to adverse weather. Even the shorter series could be ingested into reanalyses and improve the quality of large-scale reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aviation industry is challenged to reduce its climate impact. The introduction of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) is, among other policy instruments such as the European Emissions Trading Scheme, an option favored by policymakers in Europe to achieve this objective. These fuels feature substantially reduced carbon life-cycle emissions in comparison to fossil fuels. In Europe, a mandatory quota for the use of sustainable fuels will most likely be introduced, starting in the year 2025. The introduction of a blending mandate by governments and the European Commission is associated with a range of challenges. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the economics of climate change mitigation in aviation and the role SAFs can play. The economic issues associated with the introduction of SAFs are analyzed, with a particular focus on the European Commission's proposal for a blending mandate. Several suggestions for improvement are discussed. Furthermore, alternatives to SAFs are presented and evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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European cities are currently facing one of the main evolutions of the last fifty years. 'Cities for the citizens' is the new leitmotiv of modern societies, and citizens are demanding, among others, a greener environment including non-polluted air. Improved sensors and improved communication systems open the door to the design of new systems based on citizen science to better monitor the air quality. In this paper, we present a system that relies on the already available Copernicus Environment Service, on Air Quality Monitoring reference stations and on a cluster of new low-cost, low-energy sensor nodes that will improve the resolution of air quality maps. The data collected by this system will be stored in a time series database, and it will be available both to city council managers for decision making and to citizens for informative purposes. In this paper, we present the main challenges imposed by Air Quality Monitoring systems, our proposal to overcome those challenges, and the results of our preliminary tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Europe, regions in the Mediterranean area share common characteristics in terms of high sensitivity to climate change impacts. Does this translate into specificities regarding climate action that could arise from these Mediterranean characteristics? This paper sheds light on regional and local climate mitigation actions of the Mediterranean Europe, focusing on the plans to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in a representative sample of 51 regions and 73 cities across 9 Mediterranean countries (Croatia, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain). The study investigates: (i) the availability of local and regional mitigation plans, (ii) their goals in term of greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets on the short and medium-long term, and (iii) the impact of transnational climate networks on such local and regional climate mitigation planning. Results of this study indicate an uneven and fragmented planning, that shows a Mediterranean West-East divide, and a link with population size. However, overall, both regional and city action seem insufficiently ambitious with regards to meeting the Paris Agreement, at least at city level. While national frameworks are currently weak in influencing regional and local actions, transnational networks seem to be engaging factors for commitment (at city level) and ambitiousness (at regional level). The uneven and fragmented progress revealed by this study, does not align with the characteristics shared by investigated regions and cities in terms of environmental, socio-political, climatic and economic conditions. The results support the call of a common green deal at the Mediterranean level to further address specific Mediterranean challenges and related needs. This will allow to capitalise on available resources, generate local-specific knowledge, build capacities, and support Mediterranean regions and cities in preparing the next generation of more ambitious mitigation plans., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Temperate grassland soils store significant amounts of carbon (C). Estimating how much livestock grazing and manuring can influence grassland soil organic carbon (SOC) is key to improve greenhouse gas grassland budgets. The Rothamsted Carbon (RothC) model, although originally developed and parameterized to model the turnover of organic C in arable topsoil, has been widely used, with varied success, to estimate SOC changes in grassland under different climates, soils, and management conditions. In this paper, we hypothesise that RothC-based SOC predictions in managed grasslands under temperate moist climatic conditions can be improved by incorporating small modifications to the model based on existing field data from diverse experimental locations in Europe. For this, we described and evaluated changes at the level of: (1) the soil water function of RothC, (2) entry pools accounting for the degradability of the exogenous organic matter (EOM) applied (e.g., ruminant excreta), (3) the month-on-month change in the quality of C inputs coming from plant residues (i.e above-, below-ground plant residue and rhizodeposits), and (4) the livestock trampling effect (i.e., poaching damage) as a common problem in areas with higher annual precipitation. In order to evaluate the potential utility of these changes, we performed a simple sensitivity analysis and tested the model predictions against averaged data from four grassland experiments in Europe. Our evaluation showed that the default model's performance was 78% and whereas some of the modifications seemed to improve RothC SOC predictions (model performance of 95% and 86% for soil water function and plant residues, respectively), others did not lead to any/or almost any improvement (model performance of 80 and 46% for the change in the C input quality and livestock trampling, respectively). We concluded that, whereas adding more complexity to the RothC model by adding the livestock trampling would actually not improve the model, adding the modified soil water function and plant residue components, and at a lesser extent residues quality, could improve predictability of the RothC in managed grasslands under temperate moist climatic conditions., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Climate change (CC) is predicted to increase the risk of aflatoxin (AF) contamination in maize, as highlighted by a project supported by EFSA in 2009. We performed a comprehensive literature search using the Scopus search engine to extract peer-reviewed studies citing this study. A total of 224 papers were identified after step I filtering (187 + 37), while step II filtering identified 25 of these papers for quantitative analysis. The unselected papers (199) were categorized as "actions" because they provided a sounding board for the expected impact of CC on AFB 1 contamination, without adding new data on the topic. The remaining papers were considered as "reactions" of the scientific community because they went a step further in their data and ideas. Interesting statements taken from the "reactions" could be summarized with the following keywords: Chain and multi-actor approach, intersectoral and multidisciplinary, resilience, human and animal health, and global vision. In addition, fields meriting increased research efforts were summarized as the improvement of predictive modeling; extension to different crops and geographic areas; and the impact of CC on fungi and mycotoxin co-occurrence, both in crops and their value chains, up to consumers.

This study determines the frequency, location and spatial extent of such large-area monthly thermal anomalies, which are referred to in this paper as continental-scale thermal anomalies (CTAs). The research was based on monthly mean air temperature values from 210 weather stations over the 68-year period 1951-2018. A CTA is defined as an anomaly when the monthly mean temperature exceeded the long-term average by at least 2 standard deviations at a minimum of 40 stations. This study attempts to explain the occurrence of such CTAs (negative CTAs- and positive CTAs+) in relation to the circulation conditions over Europe. In the years 1951-2018, there were 16 CTAs-(mainly in winter and autumn) and 25 CTAs+ (predominantly in summer). One manifestation of climate warming is the ever less frequent occurrence of CTAs- and a growing frequency and spatial extent of CTAs+. The immediate cause behind CTAs was the occurrence of characteristic synoptic situations, leading to intensified advection of cold or hot air masses, often driven by radiation factors. The formation of CTAs- was much more often associated with very extensive and long-lasting anticyclonic systems, and that the associated synoptic situations over Europe lasted much longer than in the case of CTAs+. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthworm distributions are poorly known and individual species climatic tolerances, even less so. This paper sets out to use three species with a mainly Anglo-French distribution to test out whether using Maximum Entropy Modelling (Maxent) could be useful when studying earthworm distributions. It also gives an indication of how the likely climatic changes over a 50 year period will affect them. Overall the software seems to give useful information of where across Europe a particular species will thrive, even if not currently recorded there. It gives a real insight into how particular species might be better able to survive longer drier periods than others and which are on the edge of their climatic range already. Maxent modelling was clearly successful in demonstrating that the distributions of the ecologically different earthworm species are affected by a combination of different environmental variables. In the case of the epigeic Satchellius mammalis they are the annual temperature range, the precipitation of the driest month and the mean annual precipitation, for the epi-endogeic Lumbricus festivus they are the precipitation of the driest month, the precipitation of the wettest month and the annual temperature range. For the anecic Lumbricus friendi the most important environmental variables proved to be the annual temperature range, the mean diurnal temperature range and the precipitation seasonality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large multiscenario multimodel ensembles (MMEs) of regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by global climate models (GCMs) are made available worldwide and aim at providing robust estimates of climate changes and associated uncertainties. Due to many missing combinations of emission scenarios and climate models leading to sparse scenario–GCM–RCM matrices, these large ensembles, however, are very unbalanced, which makes uncertainty analyses impossible with standard approaches. In this paper, the uncertainty assessment is carried out by applying an advanced statistical approach, called QUALYPSO, to a very large ensemble of 87 EURO-CORDEX climate projections, the largest MME based on regional climate models ever produced in Europe. This analysis provides a detailed description of this MME, including (i) balanced estimates of mean changes for near-surface temperature and precipitation in Europe, (ii) the total uncertainty of projections and its partition as a function of time, and (iii) the list of the most important contributors to the model uncertainty. For changes in total precipitation and mean temperature in winter (DJF) and summer (JJA), the uncertainty due to RCMs can be as large as the uncertainty due to GCMs at the end of the century (2071–2099). Both uncertainty sources are mainly due to a small number of individual models clearly identified. Due to the highly unbalanced character of the MME, mean estimated changes can drastically differ from standard average estimates based on the raw ensemble of opportunity. For the RCP4.5 emission scenario in central–eastern Europe for instance, the difference between balanced and direct estimates is up to 0.8 ∘ C for summer temperature changes and up to 20 % for summer precipitation changes at the end of the century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many recently published papers have investigated the spatial and temporal manifestation of the 4.2 ka BP climate event at regional and global scales. However, questions with regard to the potential drivers of the associated climate change remain open. Here, we investigate the interaction between Atlantic and Mediterranean climate forcing on the south-eastern Iberian Peninsula during the mid- to late Holocene using compound-specific hydrogen isotopes from fossil leaf waxes preserved in marine sediments. Variability of hydrogen isotope values in the study area is primarily related to changes in the precipitation source and indicates three phases of increased Mediterranean sourced precipitation from 5450 to 5350 cal. BP, from 5150 to 4300 cal. BP including a short-term interruption around 4800 cal. BP, and from 3400 to 3000 cal. BP interrupted around 3200 cal. BP. These phases are in good agreement with times of prevailing positive modes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and reduced storm activity in the Western Mediterranean suggesting that the NAO was the dominant modulator of relative variability in precipitation sources. However, as previously suggested other modes such as the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) may have altered this overall relationship. In this regard, a decrease in Mediterranean moisture source coincident with a rapid reduction in warm season precipitation during the 4.2 ka BP event at the south-eastern Iberian Peninsula might have been related to negative WeMO conditions., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Plant species occurrence in Europe is affected by changes in nitrogen deposition and climate. Insight into potential future effects of those changes can be derived by a model approach based on field-based empirical evidence on a continental scale. In this paper, we present a newly developed empirical model PROPS, predicting the occurrence probabilities of plant species in response to a combination of climatic factors, nitrogen deposition and soil properties. Parameters included were temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, soil pH and soil C/N ratio. The PROPS model was fitted to plant species occurrence data of about 800,000 European relevés with estimated values for pH and soil C/N ratio and interpolated climate and modelled N deposition data obtained from the Ensemble meteo data set and EMEP model results, respectively. The model was validated on an independent data set. The test of ten species against field data gave an average Pearson's r-value of 0.79. PROPS was applied to a grassland and a heathland site to evaluate the effect of scenarios for nitrogen deposition and climate change on the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI), being the average of the relative probabilities, compared to the maximum probability, of all target species in a habitat. Results for the period 1930-2050 showed that an initial increase and later decrease in nitrogen deposition led to a pronounced decrease in HSI, and with dropping nitrogen deposition to an increase of the HSI. The effect of climate change appeared to be limited, resulting in a slight increase in HSI., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

In recent times, there has been increase in climate change protest across the globe. However, whether decrease in emissions is connected with climate change protest or not is yet to be documented in the literature. Consequently, the aim of this study is to fill this gap by examining ex-post detection of how climate change protests and its interconnectedness with CO2 emissions. Using the Bai and Perron (1998) structural break test, we estimate the number of breaks as well as the date of such structural breaks in CO2 emissions series for 41 countries. Our aim is to match the date of the climate change protests to those of the structural breaks. We observe that climate change protests are fairly consistent with the dates of breaks in Europe and Asia, but not in BRICS economies or US, Canada and other countries. Therefore, this method allows us to solve a gap in the energy industry related to the modelling and correct allocation of positive shocks in CO2 emissions to climate change protests., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)