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On December 8, 1993 President Bill Clinton signed into law the North American Free Trade Agreement and in doing so he brought to a close the lengthy political process that produced the trade agreement This paper combines information for individual legislators with state-level economic data to conduct an empirical analysis of the House and Senate voting patterns on NAFTA Results from the logit model estimation confirm that expected job gains/ losses, the presence of organized labor and political ideology (as represented by political party) were significant predictors of a legislator's vote on NAFTA In addition, the expected impact of NAFTA on the environment was found to be somewhat important in explaining Congressional voting patterns for a free trade agreement with Mexico [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the effect of the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling in "Webster verses Reproductive Health Services," on the voting behavior of legislators on abortion related issues. This paper examines the extent to which representatives appear to vote to satisfy their personal policy preferences on abortion funding issues, and whether voting behavior was affected by the Webster decision. The influence of a representative's personal characteristics and the characteristics, of his or her geographic constituency on voting behavior is analyzed for two types of abortion funding issues amendments to a bill for funding for the District of Columbia and bills dealing with abortion funding in conjunction with appropriations for the Department of Health and Human Services. These, amendments effectively prohibit the use of public funds for abortions.

The purpose of this paper is to offer an explanation as to why Eucidean distance serves as a reasonably good approximation of reality when it does not incorporate explicitly a consideration of the sides of the issue taken by the voter and candidate. The empirical evidence indicates quite clearly that Eucidean distance and side of issue are extremely highly correlated. Two general classes of explanation are offered. First, this powerful association can be seen as a function of the mathematical difficulty of actually being in close proximity to a preferred party while being on the opposite side of an issue on a 7-point scale. Second, even after this mathematical artifact is taken into account, the combined effects of assimilation, contrast, and negativity may bring favored candidates closer to the voter and drive the opposition further away, resulting in a strong correlation of Euclidean distance and side of the issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I examine what influences members viewed as shaping their voting decisions on U.S. strategy in the Persian Cuif in January 1991. Rather than focusing on predictors of votes and the outcomes of members' decision-making processes (the yea or nay votes as in roll-call analyses), I focus on the predominant considerations that members perceived as swaying voting choices. More specifically, drawing on data gathered from interviews with 365 congressional staff people, I chow that three influences in particular stand out as significant in the decision-making process on this crisis policy: members' own policy views. supportive constituents, and (for certain groups of members) the president. Thus, while the analysis confirms, in part, the conventional view of legislators' personal policy assessments as the critical influence on foreign and defense policy votes, it also underscores that this influence does not operate in a vacuum. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper finds that the relatively favorable standing of Ronald Reagan in the preelection polls helped to generate a bandwagon effect in the 1980 presidential election. The models tested here suggest that this effect was most pronounced among voters who had the weakest prior political opinions and hence were most susceptible to suggestion through the media. While the bandwagon effect that is generated is modest, after controlling for an array of other political biases, it is substantial enough to warrant further attention as the dissemintation of poll results becomes an increasingly attractive news "event." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When Geraldine Ferraro was selected to be the Democratic Party's vice-presidential candidate, questions were raised about why she was chosen. Was her selection an outcome of affirmative action in the political arena? The research reported in this paper investigates whether the effect of Ferraro's candidacy on voting inclinations and behavior among college students was mediated by conceptions of the procedure of affirmative action. As predicted, conceptions of affirmative action (the difference between actual and threshold ratios) influenced changes in inclination to vote Democratic in response to the Ferraro candidacy. In turn, those inclinations affected voting behavior in the 1984 presidential election. The discussion focuses on the theoretical and practical importance of perceived procedural fairness in the political arena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nonpartisan municipal ballot is one of several turn-of-the-century reforms intended to weaken political parties. Through its effects on individuals' political contexts and voting experiences, it might have contributed to the twentieth-century decline in public support for political parties. This paper tests this hypothesis with items available in the 1980 CPS presidential election survey augmented with a ballot form variable. There are no significant differences in measures of party support among residents of partisan and nonpartisan communities, and thus no measurable evidence that nonpartisan elections discouraged the public from supporting political parties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes prenomination presidential candidate preferences, using data from the Center for Political Studies' 1984 Continuous Monitoring Survey. Among Democratic identifiers, affective evaluations of the candidates were the strongest influence on candidate preference, but judgments concerning the candidates' nomination prospects and electability also influenced candidate preference, as did strength of party identification. The outcomes of particular primaries strongly influenced voters' opinions regarding the candidates' nomination prospects and, indirectly, their electability. Walter Mondale's decisive victory in the New York primary on April 3 apparently led to a "bandwagon effect" among Democratic voters across the nation; that is, the perception that Mondale was very likely to win the nomination produced a dramatic shift in candidate preference toward Mondale and away from Gary Hart. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes voting in five 1982 elections in which women ran as major party candidates for high-level offices: Governor in Vermont and Iowa; and U.S. Senator in Missouri, New York, and New Jersey. Results indicate that the sex of the candidate generally has little impact on voting and that solid women candidates can attract cross-over votes, while weaker ones can lose them. The implications of these results are discussed in the concluding section. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The treatment of "don't know," "no opinion," or other nonsubstantive responses is a problem in many consumer research surveys. This paper looks at the problem in the context of 1980 presidential election opinion polls. During the campaign, a relatively large proportion of those interviewed said that they were undecided as to whom they planned to vote for, Discriminant analysis is used to allocate undecided voters to candidates. The method is validated by a postelection follow-up survey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the major potential research advantages of using congressional districts as the primary sampling unit for election studies, as was done in the United States in 1978. This permits use of the district (rather than the respondent) as the unit of analysis. The paper describes how correlations between constituency opinion and roll-call behavior can be corrected for the reliability of the sample constituency characteristic. Data from the 1978 survey are analyzed, using this technique, and they show that roll-call behavior is quite responsive to constituency opinion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the author stresses the importance of the time factor as a fundamental variable in the process of attitude change, as shown in national voting trends in Sweden, Norway, Great Britain, and the United States. More specifically, he asks: Why do these Voting trends tend to take the shape of smooth time series? He suggests alternative reasons, which he labels the "stimulus" and the "response" hypotheses, and devotes particular attention to an explanation and elaboration of the latter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many cities throughout the U.S., during the past two decades there have been heated debates about the proposal to add minute amounts of fluoride to the water supply. In more than half of them, the opposition has been victorious. In this paper, the results of a referendum conducted in Cambridge, Massachusetts, are analyzed to determine some of the factors that are related to the support of proposals or opposition to them. Fluoridation was defeated on a referendum in November of 1953. Fluoridation of the municipal water supply would not appear to be a political issue. Yet in Cambridge, for a variety of reasons, it did become a political matter. The referendum vote in November 1953 in Cambridge, Massachusetts, which resulted in the rejection of fluoridation of the public water supply, was examined in the light of other votes in the same election and voting results from other years. The units of analysis were not individual voters but precincts. It was found that precincts that supported fluoridation also supported the retention of the proportional representation form of voting. On the same time they tended to support the candidates endorsed by the local political reform.

The article examines sociologist Talcott Parsons' political sociology by focusing exclusively on "voting." First, "voting" is one of Parsons' rare attempts to relate his theory of social systems to a set of empirical findings and interpretations dealing with contemporary political processes in the United States. Second, a careful perusal of the paper provides enough information from which to illustrate Parsons' general orientation to the study of politics. Third, the paper illuminates the value implications of Parsons' position on such important problems as political stability and change, power, conflict and consensus, leadership, citizenship, and democracy. Fourth, Parsons' later writings in this area tend to support and further elaborate the perspective developed in "voting." For these reasons, "voting" is representative of the bulk of Parsons' work in political sociology. The paper affords a useful inroad toward understanding Parsons' conception of politics in particular and, owing to his pervasive influence, pluralist theory in general.

Policy PointsThis Perspective connects the dots between the polarization in US states' policy contexts and the divergence in population health across states.Key interlocking forces that fueled this polarization are the political investments of wealthy individuals and organizations and the nationalization of US political parties.Key policy priorities for the next decade include ensuring all Americans have opportunities for economic security, deterring behaviors that kill or injure hundreds of thousands of Americans each year, and protecting voting rights and democratic functioning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policy PointsDespite increased spending and consuming more health care services than any other country in the world, the United States global health rankings experience continued decline, including worsening performance in life expectancy and mortality owing to lack of investment in and strategies on the upstream determinants of health.These determinants of health are found in our access to adequate, affordable, and nutritious food options; safe housing, blue and green spaces; reliable and safe transportation; education and literacy; opportunities for economic stability; and sanitation, among other important factors and all share a common root driver in the political determinants of health.Health systems are increasingly investing in programs and exerting influence over policies to address these upstream determinants of health, including population health management, however these programs will continue to be hindered without addressing the political determinants through government, voting, and policy.Although these investments are laudable, it is important to understand what gives rise to the social determinants of health and—more importantly—why have they disproportionately and detrimentally affected historically marginalized communities and vulnerable populations for so long? Deeply entrenched and pervasive throughout society, the political determinants of health are the fundamental instigators of these unjust and inequitable outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information about several papers discussed at a Shambaugh conference at the University of Iowa in 2008 concerning the 2008 U.S. Presidential election is presented. Topics include an examination of white voting patterns in the 2008 elections, macro voting patterns using political psychology and individual-level survey data, and the effect descriptive representation has on minority voting in state legislatures.

This article presents the status of a study being undertaken by Clinton E. Jencks of San Diego, California related to politics, government and industrial relations in the U.S., as of October 1984. Jencks is investigating whether the jury commissioner use of voter registration lists in drawing jury panels systematically prejudices against poor people stratified according to employment, family income and education. Census tapes of the Current Population Surveys is employed in the study.

American federal and state elections are largely run by local officials. Although election law is almost entirely determined by the federal government and the states, elections are actually conducted by thousands of different county and city elections offices. This decentralization of election administration has often, and fairly, been criticized as resulting in undesirable interlocal variation in the application of election rules, inefficiency, and racial discrimination. Yet, in 2020, local election administration, particularly in large urban areas, was a source of strength. Local officials proved to be resilient, innovative, and attentive to local conditions. The record-high turnout in the face of a once-in-a-century pandemic was in considerable part due to their efforts to make voting easier and more accessible. These efforts, in turn, have triggered a reaction, with many states adopting new laws intended to curtail local authority. This Article examines the local role in the 2020 election, together with the state pushback of 2021, as a study of both the surprising significance of local officials in promoting democracy and the place of local government in our intergovernmental system more generally. Local election offices are among the least formally empowered units of local government. They are charged solely with implementing state laws and policies. Yet, the 2020 election indicates they can exercise their authority to promote democracy in their communities. On the other hand, as with local governments generally, local power in election administration is fragile and can be stripped away by hostile state-level forces. By showcasing the importance of local elections officials, the 2020 election has made them a new site of conflict over the strength of American democracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses several aspects of capital punishment sentencing in America as of 2015, and it mentions the author's proposed rule which would allow a stay of execution to be ordered when four U.S. Supreme Court (USSC) Justices vote in agreeance. According to the article, when a litigant seeks judicial review by certiorari at the USSC, a self-imposed Rule of Four provides that four votes are sufficient to grant certiorari. Several capital punishment lawsuits are also examined.

Does public mood influence the decisions of U.S. Supreme Court Justices? Under what conditions might Justices vote against their typical ideological leanings and in favor of public opinion? We employ both quantitative and qualitative methods to address these questions. For the quantitative portion, logistic regression analysis indicates a strong relationship between public mood and Supreme Court Justices' votes both in the aggregate and for a number of liberal and conservative Justices individually during the 1946 to 2011 Court terms. Justices respond less strongly to public opinion when the Court is highly polarized and when the legal issues to be decided are highly politically salient. For the qualitative portion, we examine Justice Harry Blackmun's personal papers in the Library of Congress for evidence of an apparent "switch" from an attitudinal posture to a public mood posture. We findfour cases in which he made such a switch: Planned Parenthood v. Danforth, Committee for Public Education v. Nyquist, Pennsylvania Central Transportation v. New York City, and Maine v. Thibotout. We also closely examine Justice Thurgood Marshall's normative views on judicial neutrality and the role of public opinion on judging. Our research demonstrates the enduring power of popular influences on the Supreme Court, showing that despite public and scholarly reports about growing ideological intransigence in the Court, the public holds significant sway over the decisions of individual members of the nation's highest court. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is a simple matter for the members of a group to decide among two options. When there are three or more options among which to choose, the situation is much more complicated. This is precisely what faces the electorate each time there are more than two candidates running for a single office. And while there is debate over which voting method should be used, there is wide agreement over the method that should not be used: plurality, the most common approach taken in the United States. This article presents a simple classroom activity which provides students the opportunity to explore this issue in the context of a group of friends deciding which movie to watch. The methods of plurality, Borda count, approval, Condorcet, and Instant Runoff are discussed, along with advantages and disadvantages of each. All theoretical discussions are illustrated with voting data collected from fifty-eight students; an accompanying spreadsheet contains the data and the tabulations corresponding to each method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the history of popular participation in U.S. partisan politics between 1787 and 1825, arguing that political participation began with the Jeffersonian political revolution and not with the Jacksonian model of democracy. The author examines the electoral history of Jeffersonian New York and the Columbia County Republicans of 1806, discusses how the democracy of the era was linked to property rights and land tenure, and analyzes the political actions of attorney Martin Van Buren.

Studies of ballots have traditionally focused on roll-off, candidate order, and partisan advantage. This study is among the first to assess the impact of ballots on individual-level voter errors. We develop new hypotheses by bringing together theoretical insights from usability research and political science about the effects of ballots with and without a straight-party voting option. By comparing voters' intentions to the votes they cast, we are able to create two measures of voter errors: votes unintentionally cast for the wrong candidate and unintentional undervotes. Voters generally make fewer errors of both types when using a standard office-bloc ballot than when using an office-bloc ballot with a straight-party option, with the number of wrong-candidate errors substantially exceeding the number of unintentional undervotes. Voters' background characteristics have a significant impact on their ability to vote without error. Our results offer a new perspective for evaluating the use of the straight-party option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We suggest a probabilistic voting model where voters’ preferences for alternative public goods display habit formation. Current policies determine habit levels and in turn the future preferences of the voters. This allows the incumbent to act strategically in order to influence the probability of reelection. Comparing to a benchmark case of a certain reelection, we demonstrate that the incumbent’s optimal policy features both a more polarized allocation between the alternative public goods and a debt bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a discussion of an approach for electronic voting that integrates such elements as open source software, simplified procedures, and tamper-proof redundant safeguards. The widespread interest in electronic voting systems in the U.S. following the problems with the conventional voting system used in Florida during the 2000 U.S. presidential election is noted. The problems associated with merely repurposing personal computers as voting machines are discussed, mentioning that successful electronic voting requires a full system dedicated to the task.

This paper examines the role of own evaluation of financial situation in people's vote decision for the 2008 U.S. presidential election. Economy was considered the most important issue in 2008 election; therefore a correlation between socio-economic status and voting was expected. The findings shows that income played no role in the vote decision, and that the correlation between people's financial situation and their choice of president is explained by people's approval/disapproval of the incumbent party and the former president. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the influences that congressional staff people viewed as important in shaping legislators' voting decisions on the human embryonic stem (ES) cell research bill in the 109th Congress, the first legislation vetoed by President George W. Bush. The analysis illuminates factors that impact congressional decision making on a salient issue with a strong moral component. Constituent concerns, ideology, and a desire to make good public policy all centrally affected members' choices; however, moral overtones permeated considerations relevant to the human ES cell research question. In addition, at least three influences that directly reflect or relate to members' moral claims — religious convictions, personal connections to potential beneficiaries of human ES cell research, and moral pressure from outside interests—were important also. The analysis draws on data gathered from interviews with congressional aides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In contemporary American politics, partisanship is frequently seen as excessive, even if some aspects of partisanship may fundamentally characterize the U.S. political system. To reduce partisanship in the process of drawing political districts, some states have implemented independent redistricting commissions and related forms of depoliticized systems for redistricting. This paper analyzes whether the presence of relatively independent redistricting also reduces partisanship in the voting behavior of congressional representatives elected from the relevant redefined districts. Contrary to the initial expectations of the authors, the evidence reviewed here suggests that politically independent redistricting seems to reduce partisanship in the voting behavior of congressional delegations from affected states in statistically significant ways. The authors conclude with notes about the study's implications for further research into redistricting and partisanship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a procedure for locating proposals and legislators in a multidimensional policy space by applying agenda-constrained ideal point estimation. Placing proposals and legislators on the same scale allows an empirical test of the predictions of the spatial voting model. I illustrate this procedure by testing the predictive power of the uncovered set—a solution concept of the multidimensional spatial voting model—using roll call data from the U.S. Senate. Since empirical tests of the predictive power of the uncovered set have been limited to experimental data, this is the first empirical test of the concept's predictive power using real-world data. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In Spring 2003, a survey of 1000 economists was conducted using a randomly generated membership list from the American Economics Association. The survey contained questions about 18 policy issues, voting behavior, and several background variables. The response was 264 (nonblank) surveys. The responses show that most economists are supporters of safety regulations, gun control, redistribution, public schooling, and anti-discrimination laws. They are evenly mixed on personal choice issues, military action, and the minimum wage. Most economists oppose tighter immigration controls, government ownership of enterprise and tariffs. In voting, the Democratic:Republican ratio is 2.5:1. These results are compared to those of previous surveys of economists. We itemize a series of important questions raised by these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an empirical study of the determinants of voting equipment choice in the United States. We document that, in contrast to widespread belief, voting machines of older types, such as lever and punchcard systems, are not used in counties with lower income – and newer machines, such as optical scanners and electronic machines, are not used in – richer counties. We provide an economic explanation for this and other regularities of voting equipment usage in the United States. In our economic framework (a) the adoption of a new technology is more likely in richer and larger counties, but (b) the adoption of a new technology is less likely the more advanced is the technology already adopted in the county. The adoption of more advanced optical and electronic machines in the 1980s and 1990s was less likely in richer and larger counties that had already mechanized and computerized in previous decades than in poorer and smaller – and hence not yet computerized counties. Estimates of historical determinants of voting equipment choice support our hypothesis. In particular, the probability of using punchcard machines in the 1990s is positively related to a county’s income in the 1960s, when punchcard machines were first introduced. When the effect of past income is controlled for, the effect of more recent levels of income on the probability of using punchcard machines becomes negative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using voting data for presidential elections from 1976 to 2000, this paper documents an unusual and large drop off in Republican voting rates for Florida’s western Panhandle during the 2000 General Elections. Little change appears to have occurred in the rate that non-Republicans voted. The results appear more consistent with the early call reducing Republican voting rates than the networks discouraging all voters from voting by incorrectly calling the polls closed in the western Panhandle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the differences in economic outcomes delivered by partisan governments, and the way in which voters take this into account. Estimation of autoregressive models of output growth, unemployment and inflation for U.S. post-war data; Confirmation that partisan differences in economic outcomes are actually observed in the data; Partisan cycle exhibited by the U.S. unemployment rate; Evidence that U.S. citizens tend to vote for the left party when high unemployment is expected and for the right party when high inflation is expected.

Focuses on the relationship between primary types and the resulting ideology of the winning candidate in primary and general elections in the U.S. Discussion on the measure of deviation from the median voter; Description of the voting system in the country; Information on the supply and demand relationship between voter-demanders and legislator-suppliers.

This county-level study examines factors associated with the rate of voided presidential ballots in the 1996 elections. Evidence indicates that voided ballots are significantly more prevalent in counties with higher percentages of African Americans and Hispanics. The relationship between voided ballots and African Americans disappears, however, in counties using voting equipment that can be programmed to eliminate overvoting. The rate of voided ballots is lower in larger counties and in counties with a higher percentage of high school graduates. The rate of voided ballots declines as the number of presidential candidates on the ballot increases, but only up to a point, and then rises with further increases. Lever machines generate the lowest rates of voided ballots among types of voting equipment, with punch card systems generating the highest rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. Political science long ignored the actual mechanics of voting—until the 2000 presidential contest. This research note offers a systematic empirical inquiry into the potential effects of various voting methods and electorate–specific variables on the rate at which citizens register a preference via the act of voting. Methods. Voting methods were analyzed in relation to the rate of undervotes recorded in Georgia’s 159 counties during the 2000 general election using a set of multivariate models. Results. Lever machines and fill in the oval optical scan ballots are associated with lower rates of undervoting. Counties with large numbers of new registrants, lower education levels, and a higher proportion of African–American voters were found to have higher error rates. Conclusions. The results of this study provide strong evidence that voting methods and ballot types, as well as electorate–specific characteristics, are key factors in determining the error rate associated with the process of voting at the county level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Health, disease, and mortality vary greatly at the county level, and there are strong geographical trends of disease in the United States. Healthcare is and has been a top priority for voters in the U.S., and an important political issue. Consequently, it is important to determine what relationship voting patterns have with health, disease, and mortality, as doing so may help guide appropriate policy. We performed a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between voting patterns and over 150 different public health and wellbeing variables at the county level, comparing all states, including counties in 2016 battleground states, and counties in states that flipped from majority Democrat to majority Republican from 2012 to 2016. We also investigated county-level health trends over the last 30+ years and find statistically significant relationships between a number of health measures and the voting patterns of counties in presidential elections. Collectively, these data exhibit a strong pattern: counties that voted Republican in the 2016 election had overall worse health outcomes than those that voted Democrat. We hope that this strong relationship can guide improvements in healthcare policy legislation at the county level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective. Studies of the gender gap in electoral behavior have now become a familiar feature of social science research. Yet there is still disagreement about its nature and extent as well as what accounts for its development. This paper examines male-female differences in voting behavior in terms of three frequently offered explanations: inequalities in socioeconomic attainment, greater situational constraints on women, and differences in political orientations. Methods. We analyze survey data from the 1993 Australian Election Survey, the 1992 British Election Survey, and the 1992 American National Election Survey by using a regression decomposition technique for blocks of variables representing each of the three explanations for gender differences. Results. Our findings provide some evidence to support each explanation. For example, in both Britain and Australia, the two major consistently discriminating factors are gender inequalities in socio-economic attainment and situational constraints. Such factors as women's greater familial responsibilities and their differing occupational experiences help explain the gender gap in these countries. In the United States, however, it is predominantly political orientations—namely, that women are significantly more likely to favor the left side of some common political issues, which explains their differing electoral choices. Conclusions. Although gender differences in voting behavior are a widely observed phenomenon, the explanation for them is not the same in these three countries. Socioeconomic and situational factors are more important in Britain and Australia while political factors are more influential in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]