1. Early warning signal for interior crises in excitable systems
- Author
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Karnatak, Rajat, Kantz, Holger, and Bialonski, Stephan
- Subjects
Nonlinear Sciences - Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems ,Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability - Abstract
The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and non-bifurcation type transitions. We extend this toolbox and report on a characteristic scaling behavior (critical attractor growth) which is indicative of an impending global bifurcation, an interior crisis in excitable systems. We demonstrate our early warning signal in a conceptual climate model as well as in a model of coupled neurons known to exhibit extreme events. We observed critical attractor growth prior to interior crises of chaotic as well as strange-nonchaotic attractors. These observations promise to extend the classes of transitions that can be predicted via early warning signals., Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures
- Published
- 2017
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