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This paper discusses the relationship between morality and engagement focused on the narratives about climate change. The goal of our research is to understand whether moral grounds identified in individuals and in narratives can influence youth's engagement in environmental debate and news consumption on climate change. Recognizing that people's perceptions of climate change are related to several factors, such as ideas, cultures, and values, we sought to understand whether there is a "green morality" or a prevalence of more responsive moral attributes in individuals when they are exposed to thinking about the environment. We use the Moral Foundations Theory to analyze comments on the environmental news on Twitter and a questionnaire adapted to the environment on moral grounds. The data were collected from Brazil and Portugal between 2021 and 2022. The overall results showed a high incidence of responses with Care/Harm and Fairness/Cheating, and an average incidence of responses related to Loyalty/Betrayal and Authority/Subversion. The results indicate that youngsters show a more prominent moral to care and environmental harm, as well as justice and responsibility, which may influence their interest in the consumption of environmental news and future engagement. In addition, there are factors, such as political issues, that can influence moral values and engagement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical models have been developed to investigate and understand responses of biogeochemical cycle to global changes. Steady state, when a system is in dynamic equilibrium, is generally required to initialize these model simulations. However, the spin‐up process that is used to achieve steady state pose a great burden to computational resources, limiting the efficiency of global modeling analysis on biogeochemical cycles. This study introduces a new Semi‐Analytical Spin‐Up (SASU) to tackle this grand challenge. We applied SASU to Community Land Model version 5 and examined its computational efficiency and accuracy. At the Brazil site, SASU is computationally 7 times more efficient than (or saved up to 86% computational cost in comparison with) the traditional native dynamics (ND) spin‐up to reach the same steady state. Globally, SASU is computationally 8 times more efficient than the accelerated decomposition spin‐up and 50 times more efficient than ND. In summary, SASU achieves the highest computational efficiency for spin‐up on site and globally in comparison with other spin‐up methods. It is generalizable to wide biogeochemical models and thus makes computationally costly studies (e.g., parameter perturbation ensemble analysis and data assimilation) possible for a better understanding of biogeochemical cycle under climate change. Plain Language Summary: Land carbon cycle models, a critical component of earth system models, have been developed to investigate and understand ecological responses to global changes. However, the model spin‐up process to achieve steady state are usually time‐consuming and pose great computational burden. The spin‐up problem hinders our ability to study some key issues in land carbon cycle modeling, such as sensitivity analysis. This paper applies a new SASU framework to accelerate spin‐up of Community Land Model matrix version 5. Compared with traditional native dynamic approach, SASU speeds up the spin‐up by approximately 50 times, achieving the fastest spin‐up speed than all the previously recorded methods. Our SASU method is applicable to biogeochemical models and, therefore, liberates the models for computationally costly studies, such as parameter perturbation ensemble analysis and data assimilation. Key Points: A new semi‐analytical spin‐up (SASU) framework combines the default accelerated spin‐up method and matrix analytical algorithmSASU accelerates CLIM5 spin‐up by tens of times, becoming the fastest method to our knowledgeSASU is applicable to most biogeochemical models and enables computationally costly study, for example, sensitivity analysis [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A crucial aspect analysed during the last years, aiming to improve sugarcane production, is the impact of climate change on sugarcane productivity. One of the strategies to mitigate climate change's impact on sugarcane yield is the development of new varieties known to positively affect crop production. This paper analysed how climate change impacts sugarcane production regarding the different planted varieties. Data regarding sugarcane harvest were collected from a cooperative in the south of Goiás state—Brazil, the second biggest national sugarcane producer. Results indicate that climate impact on sugarcane yield is irrelevant when controlling for different varieties. Considering the results presented in this work, the Brazilian government should keep the incentives for the development of new sugarcane varieties and, at the same time, spur sugarcane producers to use the new sugarcane varieties. The results imply that if the variety is correctly chosen, sugarcane can be produced without harming the environment, contributing to reaching SDG 15. Moreover, it is less probable that an adverse climatic event will destroy the planted area, preventing sugarcane producers from severe loss and contributing to achieving SDGs number 1 and 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The traditional approach to characterize extreme rainfall events is based on using past observed data to fit a probability distribution, which is used to associate a certain probability of occurrence to a rainfall magnitude, under a stationary assumption. Observed series, however, may exhibit trends and abrupt changes, resulting from the natural hydro climatic variability and the climate change context, which are not usually considered in the stationary modelling procedure and which may affect the characterization of extreme events. In this paper, it was evaluated the presence of these temporal changes in rainfall series and their impact to estimate design quantiles, using rainfall data of 317 stations, located in São Paulo State, Brazil. The results showed that extreme rainfall events are changing in the state. Low-return period events (up to 10 years) are intensifying. Moderate- and high-return period events, on the other hand, did not present a clear spatial pattern. Trends and abrupt changes may significantly influence the estimation of design quantiles. The presence of the former in rainfall series exhibited more influence on low-return period events, showing, however, no clear relationship with high-return period design quantiles. The presence of the latter seems to influence the characterization process, affecting estimated quantiles of all evaluated return periods. Such findings highlight the need to consider the presence of trends and abrupt changes and their influence on design quantiles for a more reliable characterization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many regions around the world are facing climate changes, with substantial increase in air temperature over the past decades, which is mainly related to continental and global warming forced by the higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objectives of this study were to use the Köppen climate classification to detect local climate change based on a historical series of 100 years and to assess if such change is related to those that are occurring in other spatial scales as a likely consequence of increasing GHG. This paper brings a content full of innovative results. The study area presented an average annual air temperature increase by 0.9 °C between 1917 and 2016, rising from 21.4 °C for the first climatological normal (1917–1946) to 22.3 °C for the last one (1987–2016). Furthermore, in the summer months, the temperature rose from 24.5 to 25.3 °C, and in the winter months, such increase was from 17.1 (1917–1946) to 18.3 °C (1987–2016). Our findings showed the subtropical conditions (Cfa in Köppen's classification) in the study area persisted from the beginning of the analysis (1917–1946) until the climatological normal of 1979–2008, with a clear tendency of tropicalization after that with a change in the climate type of Piracicaba from subtropical to tropical, which can now be classified as tropical with dry winter (Aw climate type). The local average air temperature showed concordances with the long-term air temperature anomalies from regional, continental, and global scales, indicating that all of them may be linked with increasing GHG emissions, since well-defined long-term linear relationships (r2 = 0.99) were observed between continental and global average air temperature anomalies and atmospheric CO2 concentration observed at the NOAA Lab in Mauna Loa in the last 59 years. While the local and regional forcing effects remain to be fully unraveled, our study provided a valid and strong scientific sound evidence that climate change occurred in Piracicaba, southeastern Brazil, in the last 100 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper aims to compute climatological zones apt for the cultivation of pitaya based on trends in the occurrence of climate change events from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change) in Brazil. We used temperature and precipitation data from 4942 cities collected on the NASA/POWER platform (National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) from 1990 to 2020 to elaborate on the current scenario. The climate change scenarios were obtained using the CHELSA platform (Climatologies at high resolution for the earth's land surface areas) and corresponded to the periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 associated with four IPCC climate change scenarios. The spatialization of the data occurred according to the bioclimatic classes designed to meet the thermal and water needs of the crop. In the current scenario, class B5 has a predominance of 37.07% of the country, characterizing the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast regions, as well as the state of Paraná, as suitable for the cultivation of pitaya. Projections of temperature increase and reduction of accumulated rainfall were found throughout Brazil, but with greater impact in the North and Northeast regions, which had the greatest reduction of areas suitable for the cultivation of pitaya with a greater predominance of classes B8 and B9. In the South and Southeast regions, class B5 makes up a large part of the areas that remained suitable for the production of this fruit until 2080. The results suggest that climate change does not benefit the cultivation of pitaya in some regions of Brazil because the dimensions of the areas suitable for economic production are restricted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eucalyptus plantations around the world have been largely used by the paper industry. Optimizing the management of resources is a common practice in this highly competitive industry and new forest growth models may help to understand the impact of climate change on the decisions of the optimization processes. Current optimized management plans use empirical equations to predict future forest stands growth, and it is currently impractical to replace these empirical equations with physiological models due to data input requirements. In this paper, we present a different approach, by first carrying out a preliminary assessment with the process-based physiological model 3PG to evaluate the growth of Eucalyptus stands under climate change predictions. The information supplied by 3PG was then injected as a modifier in the projected yield that feeds the management plan optimizer allowing the interpretation of climate change impacts on the management plan. Modelling results show that although a general increase of rain with climate change is predicted, the distribution throughout the year will not favor the tree growth. On the contrary, rain will increase when it is less needed (summer) and decrease when it is most needed (winter), decreasing forest stand productivity between 3 and 5%, depending on the region and soil. Evaluation of the current optimized plan that kept constant the relation between wood price/cellulose ton shows a variation in different strategic management options and an overall increase of costs in owned areas between 2 and 4%, and a decrease of cumulated net present value, initially at 15% with later stabilization at 6–8%. This is a basic comparison to observe climate change effects; nevertheless, it provides insights into how the entire decision-making process may change due to a reduction in biomass production under future climate scenarios. This work demonstrates the use of physiological models to extract information that could be merged with existing and already implemented empirical models. The methodology may also be considered a preliminary alternative to the complete replacement of empirical models by physiological models. Our approach allows some insight into forest responses to different future climate conditions, something which empirical models are not designed for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The following paper aims to reconstruct the evolution of this dynamic by tracing the interpretations and reinterpretations of the norm done by Brazilian state actors through the process of localization of the norm in the domestic discourse on climate change in Brazil from 2005 to 2010. The theoretical perspective is based on the literature about norms internalization that attempts to specify the conditions under which international norms find salience in particular domestic contexts. Two main interpretations coexist within the Brazilian political arena in the period within the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol until the signature of the Paris agreement that influenced the climate politics in Brazil in that period. The first stand around the norm was a traditional interpretation of the principle defending a position of historical responsibilities that implies that Brazil did not have to take greenhouse gas reduction measures. The second position is a more progressive interpretation of the norm that argues that Brazil, as an emergent country, can and must adopt emissions reductions. The tie between both positions allows us to understand the alleged ups and downs in climate policy in the time frame studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pastureland maintenance is seen as a land-based measure to reduce dependency on feed concentrates and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock production in the EU, while providing other ecosystems services. This paper assesses potential market-mediated impacts, including global Land Use Change (LUC) and GHG emissions, from increased subsidies to pasture-based livestock production in the EU. A tax recycling strategy (TRS) is simulated against a baseline up to 2030 under the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2). This implies a budget-neutral increase in the level of pasture subsidies in individual Member States, as land subsidies for other cropping activities decrease. We employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP in its recursive-dynamic version, GTAP-RDEM, extended with the Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) database FABIO to disaggregate agri-food sectors from 21 to 31. This approach allows considering price- and income-dependent feedbacks when assessing long-run changes in the global economy, improving the sectoral resolution relative to GTAP v10. The policy increases pastureland areas and cattle production in almost all EU Member States, whereas cropland and crop production decrease, causing significant changes across EU agri-food markets. Crop prices increase, leading to the reduced output of intensive animal production sectors, mainly pig and poultry. Cropland areas decrease and most EU countries increase imports of grain, oilseeds, and cakes, essentially soybean cake from Brazil and North America. While GHG emissions decrease in those EU countries where pasturelands expand mainly at the cost of croplands, GHG emissions increase in those countries where pastureland expansion comes with forest loss. As a result, net GHG emissions increase in the EU-27 in 2030 (+2.49 Mt CO 2 -eq). Emissions from LUC in major non-EU grain- and oilseed-exporting countries increase, e.g., by 102.52 Mt CO 2 -eq in Brazil and by 129.17 Mt CO 2 -eq in North America. The simulated policy shows that promoting extensive livestock per se does not meet the objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy and the EU Green Deal. The TRS should be complemented with policies to foster crop diversification and promote the use of domestic feed sources (e.g., legumes) to effectively ensure feed self-sufficiency and that extensive cattle production in the EU does not lead to deforestation in carbon-rich countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyze the vulnerability to climate change of family farmers in the Rio Doce region, Minas Gerais. The theoretical background was based on the discussion about the negative impacts of climate change on family farming. Vulnerability was identified through its dimensions related to sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity, which were measured by representative indexes, based on socioeconomic and demographic data from 206 farmers in the region, and municipality climate variables. The results indicated that low pluriactivity and reduced access to irrigation mechanisms increased farmers' sensitivity. The low precipitation rates, in relation to the regional historical average, increased the exposure to climate change. The adaptive capacity can be attributed to the low access to rural credit and the absence of public irrigation projects. Therefore, high vulnerability were a consequence of high exposure and sensitivity rates, combined with low adaptive capacity. The results suggest that the region should receive attention in terms of public policies to reduce its vulnerability, enabling it to face more intense climate change scenarios in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both global climate change and urbanization trends will demand adaptation measures in cities. Large agglomerations and impacts on landscape and natural environments due to city growth will require guided densification schemes in urban areas, particularly in developing countries. Human biometeorological indices such as the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) could guide this process, as they provide a clear account of expected effects on thermal sensation from a given change in outdoor settings. However, an earlier step should optimally include an adequacy test of suggested comfort and thermal stress ranges with calibration procedures based on surveys with the target population. This paper compares obtained thermal comfort ranges for three different locations in Brazil: Belo Horizonte, 20° S, Aw climate type; Curitiba, 25.5° S, Cfb subtropical climate, both locations in elevation (above 900 m a.s.l.); and Pelotas, at sea level, latitude 32° S, with a Cfa climate type. In each city, a set of outdoor comfort field campaigns has been carried out according to similar procedures, covering a wide range of climatic conditions over different seasons of the year. Obtained results indicate a variation of neutral temperatures up to 3 °C (UTCI units) as a possible latitude and local climate effect between the southern locations relative to the northernmost location. Low UTCI values were found in the two subtropical locations for the lower threshold of the thermal comfort band as compared with the original threshold. A possible explanation for that is a longer exposure to cold conditions as buildings are seldom provided with heating systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates climate change impacts on the hydrology and water quality of Brazilian semi-arid reservoirs. An integrated approach coupling climate, hydrological and water quality models was proposed. Five general circulation models (GCMs) and two future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were used for the projections. The simulations showed that uncertainty in climate forecast significantly impacted hydrological and water quality outputs. Some scenarios revealed a strong decrease in streamflow and storage volume. On the other hand, 40% of multi-GCM projections indicated reservoir eutrophication. The impacts on hydrology and water quality under SSP5-8.5 were more significant than those under SSP2-4.5. The results also indicated that drought events may be prolonged under climate change, principally at the end of the 21st century for SSP5-8.5, and may significantly increase the total phosphorus concentration. This suggests that tropical semi-arid reservoirs could be more vulnerable to eutrophication in scenarios of climate change than those in other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The election of Donald Trump brought disarray to the climate change regime. The changes in what was up to then a promoter of the liberal international order (LIO) exacerbated existing tensions while creating new ones. This paper investigates how that challenge impacted the behaviours of Brazil, China and the European Union (EU) by comparatively analysing their dissimilar positions with respect to three indicators before and after Trump's coming into power. These indicators are individual pledges and climate-related policies; approaches to climate finance; and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). The analysis first shows how the US started eroding the broader LIO and the climate change regime to then delve into the behaviours of the three respective key players concerning climate talks. I sustain that the EU, despite its inner divisions, is already counteracting Washington, whereas China is combining a pro-status quo position based on a rhetorical condemnation of the United States. Brazil, in turn, had a transition towards a climate-sceptic government, shifting from being a cooperative actor to abdicating hosting the COP25. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the effects of public policies on the occurrence of natural disasters related to extreme rainfall. By using a unique and geolocated database on natural disasters in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, I test whether variables related to public policies - e.g. forest cover and urban infrastructure - affect the occurrence of natural disasters, conditional on the existence of extreme rainfall. Results point to a significant role for public policies in order to mitigate effects of extreme weather events. More specifically, results point to an important role for urban infrastructure, as proper sewage and waste collection, and forest cover in reducing the impacts of extreme rainfall. Moreover, I discuss how these heterogeneous effects have distributional consequences and can be linked to the Environmental Justice literature. Finally, this paper reinforces the idea that adaptation policies to disasters are essential in reducing local vulnerabilities and can yield distributional and fiscal benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impacts in one country can lead to impacts in distant locations, for example, via internationally traded crops. Previous work has highlighted a need to include cross-border climate change impacts in climate risk assessments, to describe the exposure and transmission of cross-border climate risk across actors, and understand options for managing this risk. In a case study of the Brazil-Europe soy supply chain, this paper aims to explore how stakeholders perceive past and future shocks, how climate change impacts affect stakeholders differently, and how they might respond. Soy is a key internationally traded commodity and Europe relies on imports for the majority of its soy consumption, used widely in livestock feed. Via 96 semi-structured expert interviews, we found different stakeholder groups are vulnerable to different types of weather shocks, experience different price and supply consequences, and have different capacities to respond. While some responses can reduce risk of impacts across the supply chain (e.g. new soy cultivars, improving transport infrastructure), we also identified examples where responses exacerbate risk for other stakeholders (e.g. export bans, changing demand). A holistic cross-border approach to analysing risk in the soy supply chain can help avoid maladaptation and offer opportunities for more collaborative adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the buildings sector requires a full understanding of the factors influencing emissions over the life-cycle of buildings, particularly in places where large additions to the building stock are expected. Currently, little is known about what affects the GHG emissions of buildings located in warmer climates, a typical situation for many emerging economies. This paper presents a study of emissions from Brazilian office buildings using building archetypes. A sensitivity analysis explores possible parameter ranges, various contributions to life-cycle impacts and their key drivers. For each of the 1000 building variations in the sample, the emissions were calculated using a life-cycle assessment. Multivariate regression analysis enabled the study of the results' sensitivity to 10 parameters, influencing building operation, design and others. The emissions ranged from 20 to 106 kg CO2-eq/m² gross floor area and year. Electricity mix, climate and cooling efficiency were the most impactful parameters, but building component service time was also significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The agricultural and livestock sector has caused approximately 24% of total greenhouse gas emissions (GEE) in Brazil in 2017. In 2009, the Brazilian administration established sectorial plans for the mitigation of climatic changes. The Agricultural Plan for Low Carbon (ABC) and the ABC Program are responsible for target projections to mitigate climatic changes and financial incentives for their implementation. Current paper investigates whether available credit for this public policy is being used in technological processes with great potential for the mitigation of GEEs. Secondary sources of data on the amount of credit of ABC program and GEE emissions have been researched. The historical series of emissions revealed that, within agricultural activities, enteric fermentation of animals and the use of agricultural soil are the main causes of GEEs, with almost 86% of emissions. Results also demonstrated that, within seven priority areas, one has specially received highest investment rates, or rather, the recovery of degraded pastureland, with approximately 30% of investments. Further, 15% of amounts initially projected by the ABN program have been available and only 9% have been effectively spent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adoption of sustainable agriculture practices (SAP) has the potential to mitigate climate change's effects, while at the same time minimize degradation of natural resources and increase food production. However, recent policies based on economic incentives alone have largely failed to increase SAP adoption rate at farm level. Understanding farmers' perceptions towards environmental issues and climate change is essential to change this situation. This study aims to categorize farmers in different types, according to their perceptions on environmental issues and on climate change in a sample of Brazilian farmers (n = 172). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Cluster Analysis were used. Results showed four clusters of farmers: "Worried", "Apathetic", "Anthropocentric" and "Ecocentric". Contrasting to "Worried" and "Apathetic", farmers in "Anthropocentric" and "Ecocentric" clusters presented pro-environmental behavior, which suggests a high likelihood to adopt SAP. While farmers with an anthropocentric view are oriented to increase their economic gains, ecocentric farmers are motivated by environmental concerns i.e. non-economic factors. Insights of this paper can be used to facilitate effective policy development and strategies to increase the adoption rate of SAP. Image 10125 • The study examines the classified environmental behavior of farmers in Brazil. • Statistical analysis was used for the study. • Farmers who are ecocentric and anthropocentric exhibited pro-environmental behavior. • Pro-environmental behavior is not motivated exclusively by financial incentives. • Results will help to increase the adoption rate of sustainable agricultural practices in Brazil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a complex and uncertain global problem because it is driven by human behavior, with long-term climate-related risks for natural and human systems. Changes in human behavior, financing flow, policy instruments, and multilevel governance are needed for mitigating and managing major climate risks. Understanding the social dimensions of climate change is, quite literally, a hot topic to be studied. Most of the scientific literature in the field is focused on the 'hard science'. Different methods of theory building are used in applied social sciences. However, the use of the grounded theory approach in sustainability research, specially on 'soft science' in the fi eld of climate change, is scarce. The intent of this paper is to discussion the use of the grounded theory method in an emergent research fi eld that combines governance and climate change. The article presents substantive results of an emerging theoretical framework that explain the governance process of REDD+ in Brazil, an United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) climate fi nance mechanism focused on mitigating forest-related emissions in developing countries. Instead of discussing best procedures and techniques to build grounded theory, which are largely accessed through several peer-reviewed publications, our focus is to provide a practical guide and discuss lessons learned from the fi eld to integrate the 'REDD+ Governance Theoretical Framework'. Thus, scholars and graduate students are encourage to test and validate (or not) the emerging theoretical framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract A user-friendly system designed to understand local littoral processes and design/evaluate coastal interventions, named the Coastal Modeling System (SMC ε) is presented. The system, which comprises a set of numerical models, state-of-the-art methodologies and numerical databases, is prepared to provide a method for coastal practitioners, researchers and decision-makers to address coastal issues, such as erosion and flooding or to evaluate coastal defense structures. The system incorporates a method to transfer numerically generated, calibrated and validated wave series to the surf zone; to estimate the sediment littoral drift by means of up-to-date formulations; and to estimate the flooding level and impacts such as those produced by climate change. In this paper, these skills are detailed. The system, which is adaptable to any coastal region, was implemented for the Brazilian coast (SMC-Brasil). The implementation includes databases and methodological adaptations to local characteristics, a dissemination plan and the development of several study cases. Highlights • SMCε is modeling software to deal with all stages of Coastal Engineering Projects. • Database includes 60-year time series of waves, storm surge and astronomical tide. • Methodology/models to study dynamics/impacts at all scales including climate change. • Erosion/flooding assessment due to interventions/natural causes even climate change. • SMCε is free and adaptable to any country. Adaption to Brazilian coast is described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social housing sector is very important in Brazil, due to the necessity of expansion and investments being placed through a substantial government program. Residential buildings are expected to last at least 50 years according to Brazilian standards. Many residential projects in the sector already perform medium or poorly in terms of energy efficiency and thermal comfort today, and their designs are not analysed considering climate change. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate the result of analysing the thermal and energy performance of social housing projects considering climate change, and to assess the impact on the operational phase of introducing energy efficiency measures in the sector, and exploring methods of adaptation to climate change. A representative project of the lower income sector housing was used as case study with the evaluation of measures through thermal and energy simulation with current and future weather files for the cities of São Paulo and Salvador. Results were compared using predicted energy consumption and cooling and heating degree-hours as indicators. The results highlighted some differences related to the climate scenarios and indicator analysed, and showed that the incorporation of energy efficiency measures in current social housing projects is of fundamental importance to minimize the effects of climate change in the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obraczka, M.; Beyeler, M.; Magrini, A., and Legey, L.F., 2017. Analysis of coastal environmental management practices in subregions of California and Brazil. Globally, human and natural systems in urban coasts face multiple threats, most importantly from climate change. Increasingly, subnational state and local governments are being forced to include climate change impacts into coastal planning and management. Urban coastal managers are looking to more transparent and integrated coastal and environmental management regimes to better address the multiple stressors and uses, as well as to integrate public and stakeholder participation, and maximize a broad range of community economic and environmental and ecosystem benefits. This research presents a case study of coastal and environment management systems in two important coastal regions: an urbanized area of the central coast of California, United States; and the rapidly urbanizing and developing coastal lowlands of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Similarities and differences in coastal environmental governance, management, and outcomes were identified and analyzed. The contrasting federalist governance structures are compared, and the coastal management and environment assessment systems in the case study locations are analyzed. This research contributes to the body of knowledge on subnational coastal environmental management systems through the review of previous relevant studies; the examination of historical primary and secondary source official reports; and the collection, analysis, and discussion of important qualitative and quantitative interviews and survey data. The study concludes that transparency and accessibility to the decision-making process are essential to the success of coastal environmental management in both locations, with benefits arising from the presence of public participation and trust. The successful integration of broad stakeholders and public awareness in California provides an example that could possibly be replicable in Rio de Janeiro to increase stakeholder participation in the decision-making processes. The paper concludes with recommendations for further studies of governance and management alternatives, and for extending and strengthening state and local capabilities of coastal environmental processes within integrated coastal environmental management systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the relative contribution of Land Use and Cover Changes (LUCC) and climate changes on runoff still represents a great challenge for water resources management. This issue is particularly critical for the Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB), one of the most important basins in South America and responsible for most of the production of food, ethanol, and electricity generation in Brazil. In this paper, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to quantitatively assess the relative contribution of both forcings. The simulation period included a time of great importance for climate studies, known as the 1970s global climate shift, and of great impact on river discharge within the UPRB. Three land use and cover scenarios were assigned to the 1961–1990 period of simulations, representing land use and cover during a pristine period (around the Year 1500), 1960, and 1985. Thirteen years of precipitation before and after the climate shift (considered to be the period 1974–1977) were analyzed and compared. Results showed a precipitation increase for the basin in general after the climate shift. The increase in rainfall reached up to 15% in many northern areas and more than 20% in the southern parts of the basin. By comparing all simulations, results indicate that both LUCC and precipitation increase due to the climate shift had a significant effect on the changes in annual discharge of the largest rivers of the UPRB. However, the results suggest that the impact of the precipitation increase on the discharge exceeded that of the LUCC. Between 1960 and 1985 the LUCC accounts for about 16% of the increase of the median annual discharge, whereas climate shift accounts for an increase of about 32%. These findings, suggesting a more relevant role for the climate, are consistent with two recent water crisis experienced by the country in the last decades, caused by prolonged below-normal rainfall throughout 2001/2002 and again in 2014/2015. [Display omitted] • We simulated land use and cover from a pristine period (Year 1500), 1960, and 1985. • We evaluated the effects of precipitation change on discharge from 1961 to 1990. • Natural vegetation fell by more than half of the original area up to 1985. • Precipitation increased by more than 20% after the 1970s global climate shift. • Results suggest that climate shift is the main driver in increasing annual discharge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports an empirical case study on the interface between microfinance and climate change actions. Climate change, which until recently seemed a luxury for the microfinance sector, now appears to be crucial for its future. For their low adaptive capacity, the millions of microfinance clients worldwide happen to be the most vulnerable to a changing climate. However, such an arena is still blurred from an academic viewpoint, and inexistent among Brazilian academia. Therefore, by investigating Brazil's largest rural MFI, Agroamigo, we aim at providing an empirical contribution to green microfinance. The main conclusion is that, albeit Agroamigo offers important links to climate change initiatives, it will need to take better account of specific vulnerabilities and risks to protect its portfolio and clients better from climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among several urban design parameters, the height-to-width ratio (H/W) and orientation are important parameters strongly affecting thermal conditions in cities. This paper quantifies changes in thermal comfort due to typical urban canyon configurations in Campinas, Brazil, and presents urban guidelines concerning H/W ratios and green spaces to adapt urban climate change. The study focuses on thermal comfort issues of humans in urban areas and performs evaluation in terms of physiologically equivalent temperature (PET), based on long-term data. Meteorological data of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation over a 7-year period (2003-2010) were used. A 3D street canyon model was designed with RayMan Pro software to simulate the influence of urban configuration on urban thermal climate. The following configurations and setups were used. The model canyon was 500 m in length, with widths 9, 21, and 44 m. Its height varied in steps of 2.5 m, from 5 to 40 m. The canyon could be rotated in steps of 15°. The results show that urban design parameters such as width, height, and orientation modify thermal conditions within street canyons. A northeast-southwest orientation can reduce PET during daytime more than other scenarios. Forestry management and green areas are recommended to promote shade on pedestrian areas and on façades, and to improve bioclimate thermal stress, in particular for H/W ratio less than 0.5. The method and results can be applied by architects and urban planners interested in developing responsive guidelines for urban climate issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper evaluates the contribution of 75 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects for technology transfer initiatives and for promotion of adoption of cleaner technologies. A documentary content analysis model was developed to acquire secondary data from the 75 Project Design Documents. Technology transfer as a benefit has only 28% share and not more than 21% of the projects led to implementation of cleaner technologies. In conclusion, CDM projects in Brazil have not encouraged a cleaner model of development through cooperation among industrialized and developing countries, as they were expected to do. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Tropical deforestation could destabilize regional climate changes. This paper aimed to model the potential climatological variability caused by future forest vulnerability in the Brazilian Amazon over the 21th century. The underlying land surface changes between 2005 and 2100 are first projected based on the respectable output produced by Hurtt et al. Then the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is applied to assess the impacts of future deforestation on regional climate during 2090-2100. The study results show that the forests in the Brazilian Amazon will primarily be converted into dryland cropland and pasture in the northwest part and into cropland/woodland mosaic in the southeast part, with 5.12% and 13.11%, respectively. These land surface changes will therefore lead to the significant reduction of the sum of sensible heat flux and latent heat flux and precipitation and the increase of the surface temperature. Furthermore, the variability of surface temperature is observed with close link to the deforested areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With a worldwide increase in disasters, the effects of climate change are already being felt, and it is the urban poor in developing countries who are most at risk. There is an urgent need to better understand the factors that determine people's capacity to cope with and adapt to adverse climate conditions. This paper examines the influence of formal education in determining the adaptive capacity of the residents of two low-income settlements: Los Manantiales in San Salvador (El Salvador) and Rocinha in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), where climate-related disasters are recurrent. In both case study areas, it was found that the average levels of education were lower for households living at high risk, as opposed to residents of lower risk areas. In this context, the influence of people's level of education was identified to be twofold due to (a) its direct effect on aspects that reduce risk, and (b) its mitigating effect on aspects that increase risk. The results further suggest that education plays a more determinant role for women than for men in relation to their capacity to adapt. In light of these results, the limited effectiveness of institutional support identified by this study might also relate to the fact that the role of formal education has so far not been sufficiently explored. Promoting (improved access to and quality of) formal education as a way to increase people's adaptive capacity is further supported with respect to the negative effects of disasters on people's level of education, which in turn reduce their adaptive capacity, resulting in a vicious circle of increasing risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This invited review paper tends to summarise the results based on the variability of occurrence of temperature extremes in South America. The first thing to note is that there is a geographical imbalance with respect to the number of published studies on temperature extremes. Most of the results come from the southern part of South America, east of the Andes, and a few from the northern part of the continent and for the Altiplano. The workshop organised by the ETCCDMI in Brazil was the first time to have the opportunity to collect information in a regional way and present trends in extreme daily temperatures. A better geographical picture enhanced with more data show significant geographical trends in warm (positive) and cold (negative) nights over Southern South America and over the northern South America coast. All other studies based on smaller regions also agree in finding the most significant trends in the evolution of the minimum temperature, with positive trends in almost all studies on the occurrence of warm nights (or hot extremes of minimum temperature) and negative trend in the cold extremes of the minimum. On the other hand, there is little agreement on the variability of maximum temperature. Generally the maximum temperature in southern South America has decreased, in opposition to the case of northern South America where it has increased. Strong decadal and interannual variability have been found in the occurrence of cold extremes. Reanalysis and climate models underestimate the intensity of extremes, mainly near the Andes. The studies trying to understand the dynamics of the circulation that leads to the occurrence of these extremes are analysed from its occurrence in almost all scales from the synoptic, intraseasonal, seasonal, annual, and multi-year linear trend with different methodologies, also, indentifying the local and remote forcing. A gap was found in studies that relate some specific local forcing (like changes in land use) and compare it with the remote ones. Different aspects of the occurrence of the temperature extremes are still missing in some regions of the continent. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The world's most influential development agency, the World Bank Group (WBG), is the leading actor in development finance and plays a central role in global efforts to protect the environment. Following the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, the institution was responsible for all investment projects of the Global Environment Facility (GEF), which was then newly established to serve as the interim financial mechanism for the United Nations Conventions on Climate Change and Biodiversity. The promise that the GEF would lead to the “greening” of development finance remains largely unfulfilled. More recently the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change appointed the WBG as the interim trustee of the new Green Climate Fund which plans to mobilize an estimated US$ 100 billion per year by 2020. While the World Bank Group plays this critical role in global environmental efforts, its main business continues to be lending for development. This includes the financing of large-scale infrastructure projects, agribusiness, large dams as well as investments in gas, oil and mining. This regular lending portfolio for development is often at odds with environmental sustainability. For example, despite the growing area of climate finance, support for fossil fuel projects continues to be dominant in the institution's lending for the energy sector. Another climate-related area is the World Bank's pioneering role in advancing REDD+, an initiative designed to reduce the emission of global green house gases by integrating efforts to protect forest areas into global carbon markets. Ultimately, its success will depend on addressing sensitive questions such as land ownership, forest governance and the equitable sharing of benefits. In conclusion the paper considers the underlying corporate culture and the difficulties in reconciling environmental and social sustainability with the institution's supply-side driven focus on meeting lending targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Green roofs have been investigated as a bioclimatic strategy to improve the energy efficiency of buildings. Quantitative data on this subject are still needed for many specific climatic conditions. This paper deals with the investigation of the green roof thermal performance of an experimental single-family residence in Florianópolis (SC, Brazil), a southern city with a temperate climate. Field measurements during a warm period (01-March-2008–07-March-2008) and during a cold period (25-May-2008–31-May-2008) included internal air temperature of rooms, internal and external surface temperature of three types of roofs (green, ceramic and metallic), heat fluxes through these roofs, green roof''s temperature profile, water volumetric content in substrate layer and meteorological data. During the warm period, the green roof reduced heat gain by 92–97% in comparison to ceramic and metallic roofs, respectively, and enhanced the heat loss to 49 and 20%. During the cold period, the green roof reduced heat gain by 70 and 84%, and reduced the heat loss by 44 and 52% in comparison to ceramic and metallic roofs, respectively. From the derived data it has been confirmed that green roof contributes to the thermal benefits and energy efficiency of the building in temperate climate conditions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The objectives this paper were to monitor and analyze the parameters: temperature, relative humidity, air speed and direction wind, to understand as occurred the main frames of discomfort or thermal comfort in two contrasting periods of the 2009 (summer and winter) in Ourinhos. In different environments were installed measuring instruments to measure the meteorological variables. The Beaufort scale allowed classifying speed wind. From the Excel application and from the Software Surfer 8 performed the analysis of variables. Finally, from the diagram of human comfort it was found the points of greatest vulnerability to adverse weather conditions. It was possible to verify that the chosen points are shown in accordance with the expected characteristics, in other words, different structures of the environment affect systematically the dynamics of climate. Thus, Ourinhos, São Paulo State, has a tendency to present phenomena as heat islands. It can be concluded that the production of space of this city has favored the framework of environmental degradation and social. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses environment subject present in public policies for Legal Amazonia, including the Public Forests Management Law (Law 11.284/06), approved with the purpose of regulating public forests management in Brazil and promoting sustainable development. The Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is suggested as a forest conservation mechanism. Through an hypothetical "zero" deforestation scenario and 100% of not emitted carbon linked to forest conservation projects, an economic revenue equivalent to the logging activities was estimated, and could be obtained in carbon market, contributing to maintenance of climatic equilibrium reducing Greenhouse Gases emissions, as well as keeping preserved biodiversity and environment services values related to standing forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I mainly analyzed the inclusion of environmental budget in climate change models. Considering Kemfert, Lise and Tol (2004)'s approach to show a formal model that puts together economic and climate issues, I analyzed the inclusion of environmental public spending and energy. I tried to show that countries' economic and physical structures establish different public spending, with different environmental impacts and consequences to another nations and that has strong influence on economic models. In relation to public spending, I considered, specifically, the Brazilian federal budget to Environmental Management from 2000 to 2006. In this article, I argue in defense of considering budget for environmental management in the discussion on climate change [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an urgent need for more information about the climate change impact on health in order to strengthen the commitment to tackle climate change. However, few studies have quantified the health impact of climate change in Brazil and in the Latin America region. In this paper, we projected the impacts of temperature on cardiovascular (CVD) mortality according to two climate change scenarios and two regionalized climate model simulations in Brazilian cities. We estimated the temperature-CVD mortality relationship in 21 Brazilian cities, using distributed lag non-linear models in a two-stage time-series analysis. We combined the observed exposure-response functions with the daily temperature projected under two representative concentration pathways (RCP), RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, and two regionalized climate model simulations, Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5. We observed a trend of reduction in mortality related to low temperatures and a trend of increase in mortality related to high temperatures, according to all the investigated models and scenarios. In most places, the increase in mortality related to high temperatures outweighed the reduction in mortality related to low temperatures, causing a net increase in the excess temperature-related mortality. These trends were steeper according to the higher emission scenario, RCP8.5, and to the Eta-HadGEM2-ES model. According to RCP8.5, our projections suggested that the temperature-related mortality fractions in 2090-99 compared to 2010–2019 would increase by 8.6% and 1.7%, under Eta-HadGEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5, respectively. According to RCP4.5, these values would be 0.7% and −0.6%. For the same climate model, we observed a greater increase trend in temperature-CVD mortality according to RCP8.5, highlighting a greater health impact associated with the higher emission scenario. Our results may be useful to support public policies and strategies for mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, particularly in the health sector. • We estimated climate change impacts on temperature-CVD mortality in Brazil. • The projections showed a reduction in CVD mortality related to low temperatures. • The projections showed an increase in CVD mortality related to high temperatures. • We found a net increase in temperature-related mortality in most cities. • A greater health impact was associated with the higher emission scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change effects can have significant impacts worldwide. Extreme events can modify water availability and agricultural production, making climate change planning an essential task. The National Institute for Space Research (INPE in Portuguese) in Brazil has made a large dataset of regional climate model outputs (simulations and projections) available, which opens up many possibilities of carrying out high-resolution climate change studies. However, there is still no performance evaluation of the model-derived rainfall output against high-resolution ground-based observation data considering the Brazilian biomes. This paper attempts to fill this gap and evaluates the simulated precipitation throughout Brazil. We used gridded observed precipitation data and historical climate simulations from the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 5 (MIROC5) and from the Hadley Center Global Environment Model, version 2 (HadGEM2-ES), which were downscaled by the Eta RCM (Regional Climate Model). For the overlapping period (1980–2005), there is good agreement (PBIAS up to 10%) of downscaled annual simulations for the Amazon and Cerrado biomes and large biases (reaching 40%) in the Pampa biome, compared to the observations. Our results showed that HadGEM2-ES is capable of representing long-term mean monthly precipitation for large areas well, such as the Amazon and Cerrado. Furthermore, the Eta RCM has considerably improved the driving GCM MIROC5 simulations. In conclusion, we recommend using the HadGEM2-ES simulations for the Amazon, Eta/HadGEM2-ES for the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Pampa, and Eta/MIROC5 for the Caatinga and Pantanal. Our study provides an overview of two downscaled simulation datasets in Brazil that may help verify the models' suitability for further climate change assessments. • We evaluated the so far most detailed precipitation projections for Brazil. • We compared the Eta RCM and driving GCMs against high-resolution observed dataset. • HadGEM2-ES GCM can represent the precipitation for large areas, such as the Amazon. • Eta RCM considerably improved the MIROC5 GCM precipitation simulations in all biomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rhodolith seabeds function as 'ecosystems engineers', which globally provide a range of 'ecosystem services'. However, knowledge on the structure, composition and distribution of rhodolith seabeds is still lacking. This Special Issue comprises six articles, addressing specific questions of rhodolith seabeds, and covering a wide range of topics. Two papers provide new large-scale information on the presence, structure and distribution of rhodolith beds at two southern hemisphere areas, in particular continental shelfs off South Africa and Brazil. Another two studies contributed to the discovery on new algal species from rhodolith beds, including Sporolithon franciscanum, a new rhodolith-forming species from Brazil, and the small benthic alga Schizocladia ischiensis. In terms of associated fauna, the taxonomic composition and patterns of abundance of decapod crustaceans are described in another article, including the description of a depth-partitioning in the abundance of juveniles and adults of the crab Nanocassiope melanodactylus. Rhodoliths are often present in fossilized deposits, so we can track changes in their presence with climate fluctuations. High temperatures during the Eocene and widespread oligotrophic conditions are finally connected with low abundances of rhodolith beds at mid and high latitudes, despite a larger presence at equatorial regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]