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Before 2008, China lacked high-coverage regional surface observation data, making it difficult for the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) to directly backtrack high-resolution, high-quality land assimilation products. To address this issue, this paper proposes a deep learning model named UNET_DCA, based on the UNET architecture, which incorporates a Dual Cross-Attention module (DCA) for multiscale feature fusion by introducing Channel Cross-Attention (CCA) and Spatial Cross-Attention (SCA) mechanisms. This model focuses on the near-surface 10-m wind field and achieves spatial downscaling from 6.25 km to 1 km. We conducted training and validation using data from 2020–2021, tested with data from 2019, and performed ablation experiments to validate the effectiveness of each module. We compared the results with traditional bilinear interpolation methods and the SNCA-CLDASSD model. The experimental results show that the UNET-based model outperforms SNCA-CLDASSD, indicating that the UNET-based model captures richer information in wind field downscaling compared to SNCA-CLDASSD, which relies on sequentially stacked CNN convolution modules. UNET_CCA and UNET_SCA, incorporating cross-attention mechanisms, outperform UNET without attention mechanisms. Furthermore, UNET_DCA, incorporating both Channel Cross-Attention and Spatial Cross-Attention mechanisms, outperforms UNET_CCA and UNET_SCA, which only incorporate one attention mechanism. UNET_DCA performs best on the RMSE, MAE, and COR metrics (0.40 m/s, 0.28 m/s, 0.93), while UNET_DCA_ars, incorporating more auxiliary information, performs best on the PSNR and SSIM metrics (29.006, 0.880). Evaluation across different methods indicates that the optimal model performs best in valleys, followed by mountains, and worst in plains; it performs worse during the day and better at night; and as wind speed levels increase, accuracy decreases. Overall, among various downscaling methods, UNET_DCA and UNET_DCA_ars effectively reconstruct the spatial details of wind fields, providing a deeper exploration for the inversion of high-resolution historical meteorological grid data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the midsummer precipitation prediction over eastern China by the dynamic downscaling method. Based on the Climate Forecast System version 2 of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, the prediction performance of global and regional models on the July precipitation over eastern China is further analyzed by hindcast experiments from 1982 to 2010 and prediction experiments from 2011 to 2021. The results suggest that the regional model forced by the global model can noticeably improve the prediction skill for precipitation in eastern China, especially in the region from the South of North China to the Yangtze River Basin, referred as the northern China in this paper. In addition, we perform a diagnostic analysis of the reason for the improvement of the model prediction skill. The results indicate that the high resolution of the regional model and the refinement of physical process parameterizations contribute to improving the simulation ability for the East Asian atmospheric circulation pattern, heat flux, especially for the meridional teleconnection pattern in East Asia and the sensible heat flux in the northern China, thus further improving precipitation prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study proposes a novel method, which is a U‐shaped convolutional neural network that combines non‐local attention mechanisms, Res2net residual modules, and terrain information (UNR‐Net). The original U‐Net method and the linear regression (LR) method are conducted as benchmarks. Generally, the UNR‐Net has demonstrated promise in performing a 10× downscaling for daily 2‐m temperature over North China with lead times of 1–7 days and shows superiority to the U‐Net and LR methods. To be specific, U‐Net and UNR‐Net demonstrate higher Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient values compared to LR by 0.052 and 0.077, respectively. The corresponding improvements in pattern correlation coefficient are 0.013 and 0.016, while the root mean square error values are higher by 0.22 and 0.338, respectively. Additionally, the structural similarity index metric is higher by 0.033 and lower by 0.015. Furthermore, regions with significant errors are primarily distributed in complex terrain areas such as the Taihang Mountains, where UNR‐Net exhibits noticeable improvements. In addition, the 12 components‐based error decomposition method is proposed to analyze the error source of different models. Generally, the smallest errors are observed during the summer season and the sequence error component is proven to be the main source error of 2‐m temperature forecasts. Furthermore, UNR‐Net consistently demonstrates the lowest errors among all 12 error components. Therefore, combining the numerical weather prediction model and deep learning method is very promising in downscaling temperature forecasts and can be applied to routine forecasting of other atmospheric variables in the future. Plain Language Summary: This research proposes a new method for downscaling using deep learning. The method uses a specific type of neural network called UNR‐Net, which combines attention mechanisms, residual modules, and terrain information. The performance of UNR‐Net is compared to two other methods: U‐Net and LR. In the study, UNR‐Net shows promise in performing a 10× downscaling of the daily 2‐m temperature in North China. The UNR‐Net demonstrates the best overall performance among all the comprehensive indicators (NSE, pattern correlation coefficient, root mean square error, and structural similarity index metric). Errors in the predictions are mainly found in complex terrain areas like the Taihang Mountains, but UNR‐Net shows noticeable improvements in these regions. The study also proposes a 12 components‐based error decomposition method to analyze the error sources of different models. All in all, it is found that the smallest errors are observed during the summer season and the main source error is the sequence error component. Additionally, when considering lead times of 1–7 days, UNR‐Net consistently shows the lowest errors among all 12 error components. Based on these findings, combining numerical weather prediction models with deep learning methods holds great promise for generating high‐resolution temperature forecasts. Key Points: This paper presents a novel deep learning downscaling method, UNR‐Net, capable of downscaling daily 2‐m temperature by a factor of 10The overall performance of the UNR‐Net method surpasses the U‐Net method and linear regression methodThe 12 components‐based error decomposition method is proposed to analyze the error source of different models [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continuous evapotranspiration (ET) data with high spatial resolution are crucial for water resources management in irrigated agricultural areas in arid regions. Many global ET products are available now but with a coarse spatial resolution. Spatial-temporal fusion methods, such as the spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion model (STARFM), can help to downscale coarse spatial resolution ET products. In this paper, the STARFM model is improved by incorporating the temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) into the data fusion process, and we propose a spatial and temporal adaptive evapotranspiration downscaling method (STAEDM). The modified method STAEDM was applied to the 1 km SSEBOP ET product to derive a downscaled 30 m ET for irrigated agricultural fields of Northwest China. The STAEDM exhibits a significant improvement compared to the original STARFM method for downscaling SSEBOP ET on Landsat-unavailable dates, with an increase in the squared correlation coefficients (r2) from 0.68 to 0.77 and a decrease in the root mean square error (RMSE) from 10.28 mm/10 d to 8.48 mm/10 d. The ET based on the STAEDM additionally preserves more spatial details than STARFM for heterogeneous agricultural fields and can better capture the ET seasonal dynamics. The STAEDM ET can better capture the temporal variation of 10-day ET during the whole crop growing season than SSEBOP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Fatal landslides are a widespread geohazard that have affected millions of people and have claimed the lives of thousands around the globe. A change in climate has significantly increased the frequency and magnitude of rainfall, which affect the susceptibility of slopes to shallow landslides. This paper presents a methodological framework to assess the future changes in extreme and seasonal rainfall magnitudes with climate model projections. This framework was applied to project summer rainfall over Wanzhou County, China, using an ensemble of four regional climate models (RCMs) from the East Asian domain of the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) under the Phase 5 Coupled Intercomparison Modeling Project (CMIP5). The results find that extreme daily rainfall was projected to decrease in the mid-21st century, with an uncertainty measured by a coefficient of variation between 5% and 25%. The mean seasonal rainfall is projected to increase in the mid-21st century up to a factor of 1.4, and up to a factor of 1.8 in the late-21st century. The variation in the mid-21st century ranged from 10% to 35%, and from 30% to 50% in the late-21st century. This case study delivered a proof-of-concept for a methodological framework to derive shallow landslide-triggering rainfall scenarios under climate change conditions. The resulting spatially distributed climate change factors (CCFs) can be used to incorporate future rainfall scenarios in slope susceptibility models and climate impact assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High spatial resolution (1 km or finer) precipitation data fields are crucial for understanding the Earth's water and energy cycles at the regional scale for applications. The spatial resolution of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG) satellite precipitation products is 0.1° (latitude) × 0.1° (longitude), which is too coarse for regional-scale analysis. This study combined the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and the Multifractal Random Cascade (MFRC) model to downscale monthly GPM/IMERG precipitation products from 0.1° × 0.1° (approximately 11 km × 11 km) to 1 km in Hubei Province, China. This work's results indicate the following: (1) The original GPM product can accurately express the precipitation in the study area, which highly correlates with the site data from 2015 to 2017 (R2 = 0.79) and overall presents the phenomenon of overestimation. (2) The GWR model maintains the precipitation field's overall accuracy and smoothness, with even improvements in accuracy for specific months. In contrast, the MFRC model causes a slight decrease in the overall accuracy of the precipitation field but performs better in reducing the bias. (3) The GWR-MF combined with the GWR and MFRC model improves the observation accuracy of the downscaling results and reduces the bias value by introducing the MFRC to correct the deviation of GWR. The conclusion and analysis of this paper can provide a meaningful experience for 1 km high-resolution data to support related applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The middle reaches of the Yellow River (MRYR), located in northern China, are the transition zone between semiarid and semi-humid climates. As one of the climate-sensitive regions in China, MRYR has fragile ecological environment and serious soil loss, which leads to geological disasters such as landslides, collapses and mudslides caused by extreme precipitation to occur. However, scarceness of the high-resolution precipitation data over MRYR limits the assessment of the environmental impacts caused by climate change, especially for extreme precipitation. In this paper, we design a Residual in Residual Dense Block based network (RRDBNet) model for the statistical downscaling of precipitation in MRYR, and compare the proposed RRDBNet with the generalized linear regression model and two popular deep learning-based models. The results show that the proposed RRDBNet model has a good performance on precipitation simulations, which can well reproduce the spatial-temporal characteristics of high-resolution precipitation. Especially, RRDBNet has substantial improvements in extreme precipitation compared with othermodels. On the probability density function of daily precipitation, it is further demonstrated that RRDBNet performs better on extreme precipitation frequency. Our results suggest that the statistical downscaling based on RRDBNet may be an effective tool for historical and future climate simulations from global climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In aiming for better access to climate change information and for providing climate service, it is important to obtain reliable high-resolution temperature simulations. Systematic comparisons are still deficient between statistical and dynamic downscaling techniques because of their inherent unavoidable uncertainties. In this paper, 20 global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model [Providing Regional Climates to Impact Studies (PRECIS)] are employed to evaluate their capabilities in reproducing average trends of mean temperature (Tm), maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), diurnal temperature range (DTR), and extreme events represented by frost days (FD) and heat-wave days (HD) across China. It is shown generally that bias of temperatures from GCMs relative to observations is over ±1°C across more than one-half of mainland China. PRECIS demonstrates better representation of temperatures (except for HD) relative to GCMs. There is relatively better performance in Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, south Yangzi River, and South China, whereas estimation is not as good in Xinjiang, the eastern part of northwest China, and the Tibetan Plateau. Bias-correction spatial disaggregation is used to downscale GCMs outputs, and bias correction is applied for PRECIS outputs, which demonstrate better improvement to a bias within ±0.2°C for Tm, Tmax, Tmin, and DTR and ±2 days for FD and HD. Furthermore, such improvement is also verified by the evidence of increased spatial correlation coefficient and symmetrical uncertainty, decreased root-mean-square error, and lower standard deviation for reproductions. It is seen from comprehensive ranking metrics that different downscaled models show the most improvement across different climatic regions, implying that optional ensembles of models should be adopted to provide sufficient high-quality climate information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Afforestation has been considered a critical nature-based solution to mitigate global warming. China has announced an ambitious afforestation plan covering an area of 73.78×104 km2 for the period 2020–2050. However, it is unclear which areas will be suitable for afforestation under future climate change. Here, we carried out a finer-resolution (25×25 km) dynamical downscaling of climate change for China using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model nested with the bias-corrected MPI-ESM1-2-HR model. Then, using the Holdridge life zone model forced by the WRF model output, we mapped the climatological suitability for forests in China. The results showed that the potential forestation domain (PFD) at present (1995–2014) approximated 500.75×104 km2 , and it would increase by about 3.49 % to 518.25×104 km2 in the period 2041–2060 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario (SSP2-4.5). Considering the expansion of the future PFD due to climate change, the afforestation area for each province was allocated to grid cells following the climatological suitability for forests. The new afforestation grid cells would be located around and to the east of the Hu Line (a geographical division stretching from Heihe to Tengchong). Due to afforestation, the land cover would be modified. The conversion from grasslands to deciduous broadleaf forests in northern China took up the most area, accounting for 40 % of the new afforestation area. The grid-cell-resolved afforestation dataset was consistent with the provincial afforestation plan and the future climatological forest suitability. The dataset would be valuable for investigating the impacts of future afforestation on various aspects, including the carbon budget, ecosystem services, water resources, and surface hydroclimate regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's Yellow River Basin (YRB) is sensitive to climate change due to its delicate ecosystem and complex geography. Water scarcity, soil erosion, and desertification are major challenges. To mitigate the YRB's ecological difficulties, climate change must be predicted. Based on the analysis of the evolution features of hydro-meteorological elements, the CMIP6 climate model dataset with Delta downscaling and the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) is utilized to quantitatively explore the future variations in precipitation and temperature in the YRB. The following results are drawn: The spatial resolution of the CMIP6 climate model is less than 0.5° × 0.5° (i.e., about 55 km × 55 km), which is improved to 1 km × 1 km by the downscaling of Delta and has outstanding applicability to precipitation and temperature in the YRB. The most accurate models for monthly mean temperature are CESM2-WACCM, NorESM2-LM, and ACCESS-CM2, and for precipitation are ACCESS-ESM1-5, CESM2-WACCM, and IPSL-CM6A-LR. Between 2023 and 2100, annual precipitation increases by 6.89, 5.31, 7.02, and 10.18 mm/10a under the ssp126, ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585 climate scenarios, respectively, with considerable variability in precipitation in the YRB. The annual temperature shows a significant upward trend, and the change rates under the different climate scenarios are, respectively, 0.1 °C/10a, 0.3 °C/10a, 0.5 °C/10a, and 0.7 °C/10a. The increase is positively correlated with emission intensity. Based on the EOF analysis, temperature and precipitation mainly exhibit a consistent regional trend from 2023 to 2100, with the primary modal EOF1 of precipitation for each scenario exhibiting a clear spatial distribution in the southeast–northwest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which are emitted significantly by economic sectors, are closely related to the global incidence of human cancer. When assessing temporal changes in PAH emissions in a country that is vast in area, such as China, it is crucial to consider socioeconomic differences across geological regions. In this study, we developed PAH emission factors at the provincial level and used them to compile a Chinese PAH emission inventory. Subsequently, we estimated trade‐driven PAH emissions at the provincial level in 2007, 2010, 2012, 2015, and 2017, and examined the critical supply chain paths. The updated inventory reveals a distinct temporal trend in trade‐driven PAH emissions, although they remain at an order of magnitude similar to previous estimates. National total production‐, consumption‐, and income‐based PAH emissions, despite a rebound in 2012, exhibit a general decline from 59.3, 43.3, and 48.8 kt in 2007 to 52.1, 43.9, and 47.0 kt in 2017, respectively. These declines align with economic adjustments and emissions mitigation legislation. Spatial hotspots were concentrated in the most affluent Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Jing‐Jin‐Ji provinces on the demand side and in the northern coal resource‐rich provinces on the supply side. They primarily drive PAH emissions from the heavy industrial sectors of northern coal resource‐rich provinces. Fewer affluent provinces have experienced a rapid increase in trade‐driven PAH emissions after 2012, emphasizing the need for synergistic reduction measures to combat PAH pollution. Plain Language Summary: The significant contribution of annual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) emissions from various economic sectors has markedly contributed to the lung cancer burden in China. Understanding the mechanism and extent of these emissions as well as their transfer through the domestic supply chain is crucial for reducing such contribution. Nevertheless, notable differences in energy consumption patterns and technological advancements exist across Chinese provinces. These differences introduce considerable uncertainty in the assessment of emissions and their related impacts. In this study, we developed an emission factor model that incorporates the Human Development Index (HDI) as a proxy. This model, combined with updated activity rate data, was used to calculate provincial PAH emissions in China. We utilized this provincial emission inventory to estimate PAH emissions embodied in trade activities between provinces and economic sectors within China, as well as to identify key supply chain pathways from both demand and supply perspectives. This study provides vital data for a comprehensive understanding of the emission responsibilities of each province and for assessing potential human health risks. Key Points: An accounting scheme was built to characterize provincial polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) emissions via China's supply chainThe affluent Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Jing‐Jin‐Ji provinces drive PAH emissions from northern coal‐rich provincesFewer affluent provinces increased embodied PAH emissions, particularly in the wholesale and catering and other services sectors [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides recurrently cause severe damage and, in some cases, the full disruption of many highways in mountainous areas, which can last from a few days to even months. Thus, there is a high demand for monitoring tools and precipitation data to support highway alignment selections before construction. In this study, we proposed a new system highway alignment selection method based on coherent scatter InSAR (CSI) and ~1 km high-spatial-resolution precipitation (HSRP) analysis. Prior to the CSI, we calculated and analyzed the feasibility of Sentinel-1A ascending and descending data. To illustrate the performance of the CSI, CSI and SBAS–InSAR were both utilized to monitor 80 slow-moving landslides, which were identified by optical remote-sensing interpretation and field investigation, along the Barkam–Kangting Highway Corridor (BKHC) in southwestern China, relying on 56 Sentinel-1A descending images from September 2019 to September 2021. The results reveal that CSI has clearer deformation signals and more measurement points (MPs) than SBAS-InSAR. And the maximum cumulative displacements and rates of the landslides reach −75 mm and −64 mm/year within the monitoring period (CSI results), respectively. Furthermore, the rates of the landslides near the Jinchuan River are higher than those of the landslides far from the river. Subsequently, to optimize the highway alignment selection, we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of feature points on a typical landslide by combining the −1 km HSRP, which was calculated from the 30′ Climatic Research Unit (CRU) time-series datasets, with the climatology datasets of WorldClim using delta spatial downscaling. The analysis shows that the sliding rates of landslides augment from the back edge to the tongue because of fluvial erosion and that accelerated sliding is highly related to the intense precipitation between April and September each year (ASP). Consequently, three solution types were established in our method by setting thresholds for the deformation rates and ASPs of every landslide. Afterward, the risk-optimal alignment selection of the BKHC was finalized according to the solution types and consideration of the construction's possible impacts. Ultimately, the major problems and challenges for our method were discussed, and conclusions were given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research and application of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on statistical downscaling have been hampered by the fact that deep learning is highly dependent on sample size and is considered to be a black-box model. Therefore, a CNN model with transfer learning (CNN-TL) is proposed to study the pre-rainy season precipitation of South China. First, an augmented monthly dataset is created by sliding a fixed-length window over the daily circulation field and precipitation data for the entire year. Next, a base CNN network is pretrained on the augmented dataset, and then the network parameters are tuned on the actual monthly dataset from South China. Then, guided backpropagation is conducted to obtain the distribution regions of the key features and explain the net. The coefficient of determination R2 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) show that the CNN-TL model has higher explanatory power and better fitting performance than the feature extraction–based random forest. In comparison with the base CNN, the transfer learning approach can improve the explanatory power of the model by 10.29% and reduce the average RMSE by 6.82%. In addition, the interpretation results of the model show that the critical regions are primarily South China and its surrounding areas, including the Indochina Peninsula, the Bay of Bengal, and the South China Sea. Furthermore, the ablation experiments and composite analysis illustrate that these regions are very important. Significance Statement: To mitigate the challenges posed by small sample sizes and the transparency of deep learning in downscaling problems, we propose a convolutional neural network based on sample augmentation and transfer learning to study the monthly precipitation downscaling problem during the preflood period in South China. In comparison with random forests and conventional convolutional neural networks, our model achieves an optimal interpretation rate and stability. In addition, we explore the interpretability of the model using guided backpropagation to find the distribution of key features within the large-scale circulation field, thus increasing the credibility of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiscale brings great benefits for people to observe objects or problems from different perspectives. Multiscale clustering has been widely studied in various disciplines. However, most of the research studies are only for the numerical dataset, which is a lack of research on the clustering of nominal dataset, especially the data are nonindependent and identically distributed (Non-IID). Aiming at the current research situation, this paper proposes a multiscale clustering framework based on Non-IID nominal data. Firstly, the benchmark-scale dataset is clustered based on coupled metric similarity measure. Secondly, it is proposed to transform the clustering results from benchmark scale to target scale that the two algorithms are named upscaling based on single chain and downscaling based on Lanczos kernel, respectively. Finally, experiments are performed using five public datasets and one real dataset of the Hebei province of China. The results showed that the method can provide us not only competitive performance but also reduce computational cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The parameterization of physical processes is one of the critical elements to properly simulate the regional climate over eastern China. It is essential to conduct detailed analyses on the effect of physical parameterization schemes on regional climate simulation, to provide more reliable regional climate change information. In this paper, we evaluate the 25-year (1983-2007) summer monsoon climate characteristics of precipitation and surface air temperature by using the regional spectral model (RSM) with different physical schemes. The ensemble results using the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method are also assessed. The result shows that the RSM model has the capacity to reproduce the spatial patterns, the variations, and the temporal tendency of surface air temperature and precipitation over eastern China. And it tends to predict better climatology characteristics over the Yangtze River basin and the South China. The impact of different physical schemes on RSM simulations is also investigated. Generally, the CLD3 cloud water prediction scheme tends to produce larger precipitation because of its overestimation of the low-level moisture. The systematic biases derived from the KF2 cumulus scheme are larger than those from the RAS scheme. The scale-selective bias correction (SSBC) method improves the simulation of the temporal and spatial characteristics of surface air temperature and precipitation and advances the circulation simulation capacity. The REA ensemble results show significant improvement in simulating temperature and precipitation distribution, which have much higher correlation coefficient and lower root mean square error. The REA result of selected experiments is better than that of nonselected experiments, indicating the necessity of choosing better ensemble samples for ensemble. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources are essential to the ecosystem and social economy in the desert and oasis of the arid Tarim River basin, northwestern China, and expected to be vulnerable to climate change. It has been demonstrated that regional climate models (RCMs) provide more reliable results for a regional impact study of climate change (e.g., on water resources) than general circulation models (GCMs). However, due to their considerable bias it is still necessary to apply bias correction before they are used for water resources research. In this paper, after a sensitivity analysis on input meteorological variables based on the Sobol' method, we compared five precipitation correction methods and three temperature correction methods in downscaling RCM simulations applied over the Kaidu River basin, one of the headwaters of the Tarim River basin. Precipitation correction methods applied include linear scaling (LS), local intensity scaling (LOCI), power transformation (PT), distribution mapping (DM) and quantile mapping (QM), while temperature correction methods are LS, variance scaling (VARI) and DM. The corrected precipitation and temperature were compared to the observed meteorological data, prior to being used as meteorological inputs of a distributed hydrologic model to study their impacts on streamflow. The results show (1) streamflows are sensitive to precipitation, temperature and solar radiation but not to relative humidity and wind speed; (2) raw RCM simulations are heavily biased from observed meteorological data, and its use for streamflow simulations results in large biases from observed streamflow, and all bias correction methods effectively improved these simulations; (3) for precipitation, PT and QM methods performed equally best in correcting the frequency-based indices (e.g., standard deviation, percentile values) while the LOCI method performed best in terms of the time-series-based indices (e.g., Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, R2); (4) for temperature, all correction methods performed equally well in correcting raw temperature; and (5) for simulated streamflow, precipitation correction methods have more significant influence than temperature correction methods and the performances of streamflow simulations are consistent with those of corrected precipitation; i.e., the PT and QM methods performed equally best in correcting flow duration curve and peak flow while the LOCI method performed best in terms of the time-series-based indices. The case study is for an arid area in China based on a specific RCM and hydrologic model, but the methodology and some results can be applied to other areas and models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the potential impacts of global warming is likely to be experienced through changes in flood frequency and magnitude, which poses a potential threat to the downstream reservoir flood control system. In this paper, the downscaling results of the multimodel dataset from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5, respectively) were coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to evaluate the impact of climate change on the Feilaixia reservoir flood control in the Beijiang River basin for the first time. Four emissions scenarios [A1B and representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5] were chosen. Results indicate that annual distribution and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation are well simulated by the downscaling results of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 multimodel dataset. The VIC model, which performs reasonably well in simulating runoff processes with high model efficiency and low relative error, is suitable for the study area. Overall, annual maximum 1-day precipitation in 2020-50 would increase under all the scenarios (relative to the baseline period 1970-2000). However, the spatial distribution patterns of changes in projected extreme precipitation are uneven under different scenarios. Extreme precipitation is most closely associated with extreme floods in the study area. There is a gradual increase in extreme floods in 2020-50 under any of the different emission scenarios. The increases in 500-yr return period daily discharge of the Feilaixia reservoir have been found to be from 4.35% to 9.18% in 2020-50. The reservoir would be likely to undergo more flooding in 2020-50. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface urban heat islands (SUHIs) are mostly an urban ecological issue. There is a growing demand for the quantification of the SUHI effect, and for its optimization to mitigate the increasing possible hazards caused by SUHI. Satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) is an important indicator for quantifying SUHIs with frequent coverage. Current LST data with high spatiotemporal resolution is still lacking due to no single satellite sensor that can resolve the trade-off between spatial and temporal resolutions and this greatly limits its applications. To address this issue, we propose a multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) coupling the comprehensive, flexible, spatiotemporal data fusion (CFSDAF) method to generate a high-spatiotemporal-resolution LST dataset. We then analyzed the SUHI intensity (SUHII) in Chengdu City, a typical cloudy and rainy city in China, from 2002 to 2022. Finally, we selected thirteen potential driving factors of SUHIs and analyzed the relation between these thirteen influential drivers and SUHIIs. Results show that: (1) an MGWR outperforms classic methods for downscaling LST, namely geographically weighted regression (GWR) and thermal image sharpening (TsHARP); (2) compared to classic spatiotemporal fusion methods, our method produces more accurate predicted LST images (R2, RMSE, AAD values were in the range of 0.8103 to 0.9476, 1.0601 to 1.4974, 0.8455 to 1.3380); (3) the average summer daytime SUHII increased form 2.08 °C (suburban area as 50% of the urban area) and 2.32 °C (suburban area as 100% of the urban area) in 2002 to 4.93 °C and 5.07 °C, respectively, in 2022 over Chengdu City; and (4) the anthropogenic activity drivers have a higher relative influence on SUHII than other drivers. Therefore, anthropogenic activity driving factors should be considered with CO2 emissions and land use changes for urban planning to mitigate the SUHI effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change will modify precipitation and temperatures' temporal and spatial distribution, trigger more extreme weather events, and impact hydrological processes. The Yangtze River basin is one of the world's largest basins, and understanding future climate changes is vital for water resource management and supply. Research on predicting future climate change in the upper Yangtze River basin (UYRB) and introducing machine learning algorithms to analyze the impact of climate factors, including extreme weather indicators, on surface runoff is urgently needed. In this study, a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to forecast the future climate in the UYRB, and the Mann–Kendall (MK) or modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) trend test at a 5% level of significance was applied to analyze temporal trends. The Spearman rank correlation (SRC) test at a 5% level of significance and random forest regression (RFR) model were employed to identify the key climatic factors affecting surface runoff from annual precipitation, annual temperature, maximum 5-day precipitation (R×5Day), number of tropical nights (TR), and consecutive dry days (CDD), and the RFR model was also used to predict future runoff. Based on the results, we found that, compared to the selected historical period (1985–2014), the mean annual precipitation (temperature) during the mid-term (2036–2065) increased by 18.93% (12.77%), 17.78% (14.68%), 20.03% (17.03%), and 19.67% (19.29%) under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively, and during the long term (2071–2100), increased by 19.44% (12.95%), 22.01% (21.37%), 30.31% (30.32%), and 34.48% (37.97%), respectively. The warming and humidification characteristics of the northwestern UYRB were more pronounced. The key climatic factors influencing surface runoff were annual precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation (R×5day), and annual temperature. Because of warming and humidification, surface runoff in the UYRB is expected to increase relative to the historical period. The surface runoff during the mid-term (long term) increased by 12.09% (12.58%), 8.15% (6.84%), 8.86% (8.87%), and 5.77% (6.21%) under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. The implementation of sustainable development pathways under the low radiative forcing scenario can be effective in mitigating climate change, but at the same time, it may increase the risk of floods in the UYRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obtaining precise and detailed precipitation data is crucial for analyzing watershed hydrology, ensuring sustainable water resource management, and monitoring events such as floods and droughts. Due to the complex relationship between precipitation and geographic factors, this study divides the entire country of China into eight vegetation zones based on different vegetation types. Within each vegetation zone, we employ a seasonally adjusted Extreme Random Trees approach to spatially downscale GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) satellite monthly precipitation data. To validate the effectiveness of this method, we compare it with kriging interpolation and traditional global downscaling methods. By increasing the spatial resolution of the GPM monthly precipitation dataset from 0.1° to 0.01°, we evaluate the downscaled results and validate them against ground-level rain gauge data and GPM satellite precipitation data. The results indicate that the partitioned area prediction method outperforms other approaches, resulting in a precipitation dataset that not only achieves high accuracy but also offers finer spatial resolution compared to the original GPM precipitation dataset. Overall, this approach enhances the model's capability to capture complex spatial features and demonstrates excellent generalization. The resulting higher-resolution precipitation dataset enables the creation of more accurate precipitation distribution maps, providing data support for regions lacking hydrological information. These data can be used to analyze seasonal precipitation patterns and reveal differences in precipitation across different seasons and geographic regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A statistical downscaling method based on Self-Organizing Maps (SOM), of which the SOM Precipitation Statistical Downscaling Method (SOM-SD) is named, has received increasing attention. Herein, its applicability of downscaling daily precipitation over North China is evaluated. Six indices (total season precipitation, daily precipitation intensity, mean number of precipitation days, percentage of rainfall from events beyond the 95th percentile value of overall precipitation, maximum consecutive wet days, and maximum consecutive dry days) are selected, which represent the statistics of daily precipitation with regards to both precipitation amount and frequency, as well as extreme event. The large-scale predictors were extracted from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) daily reanalysis data, while the prediction was the high resolution gridded daily observed precipitation. The results show that the method can establish certain conditional transformation relationships between large-scale atmospheric circulation and local-scale surface precipitation in a relatively simple way. This method exhibited a high skill in reproducing the climatologic statistical properties of the observed precipitation. The simulated daily precipitation probability distribution characteristics can be well matched with the observations. The values of Brier scores are between 0 and 1.5 × 10−4 and the significance scores are between 0.8 and 1 for all stations. The SOM-SD method, which is evaluated with the six selected indicators, shows a strong simulation capability. The deviations of the simulated daily precipitation are as follows: Total season precipitation (−7.4%), daily precipitation intensity (−11.6%), mean number of rainy days (−3.1 days), percentage of rainfall from events beyond the 95th percentile value of overall precipitation (+3.4%), maximum consecutive wet days (−1.1 days), and maximum consecutive dry days (+3.5 days). In addition, the frequency difference of wet-dry nodes is defined in the evaluation. It is confirmed that there was a significant positive correlation between frequency difference and precipitation. The findings of this paper imply that the SOM-SD method has a good ability to simulate the probability distribution of daily precipitation, especially the tail of the probability distribution curve. It is more capable of simulating extreme precipitation fields. Furthermore, it can provide some guidance for future climate projections over North China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates historical simulation of solar photovoltaic potential (PVpot) during 1989–2008 over China against the ERA5 reanalysis, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-East Asia second phase (CORDEX-EA-II). The impacts of spectral nudging technique and land surface model on the simulated PVpot are investigated as well. Results indicate that the observed PVpot is abundant over western China, which can reach up to 26% in summer particularly. The WRF simulations significantly overestimate the PVpot over most areas of China, with the bias about 9% over southeastern China, while the utilization of spectral nudging method and CLM4 land surface model can greatly reduce the deviation. The RegCM4 simulations generate underestimation of PVpot over Northwest China and overestimation over Southeast China. As for the interannual variation, the observed PVpot features an increase of 0.9%/decade over southeastern China. The WRF and RegCM4 simulations can reproduce the rising trend of PVpot, while the magnitude is much lower than ERA5. The WRF simulations can properly portray the characteristics of seasonal cycle of PVpot, with the peaks in May over entire China and most subregions, while RegCM4 exhibits poor skill in reproducing the intra-annual variation. Moreover, the simulated bias in the clear-sky solar radiation (RSDSCS), low-level cloud fraction, and light rain during the daylight may contribute to the deficiency of PVpot. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explored the applicability of TRMM, TRMM nonlinear downscaling, and ANUSPLIN (ANU) interpolation of three different types of precipitation data to define regional-scale rainfall-triggered landslide thresholds. The spatial resolution of TRMM precipitation data was downscaled from 0.25° to 500 m by the downscaling model considering the relationship between humidity, NDVI, and numerous topographic factors and precipitation. The rainfall threshold was calculated using the rainfall intensity–duration threshold model. The calculation showed that TRMM downscaled precipitation data have better detection capability for extreme precipitation events than the other two, the TRMM downscaling threshold was better than the ANU interpolation, and the cumulative effective rainfall of TRMM downscaling was preferred as the macroscopic critical rainfall-triggered landslide threshold for the early warning of the Wudu. The predictive performance of the rainfall threshold of 50% was better than the other two (10% and 90%). When the probability of landslide occurrence was 50%, the TRMM downscaled threshold curve was given by I 50 = 21.03 × D − 1.004 . The authors also analyzed the influence of factors such as topography landform and soil type on the rainfall threshold of landslides in the study area. The rainfall intensity of small undulating mountains was higher than that of medium and large undulating mountains, and the rainfall intensity of landslides peaks at high altitude mountains of 3500–5000 m. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A hybrid downscaling model for operational prediction of summer precipitation at 160 stations over China is proposed in this paper. The prediction model is conducted in February, and six predictors extending from the tropics to high latitudes with specific mechanisms are involved. Simultaneous sea level pressure over pan-East Asia and spring sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Atlantic Ocean are from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). The others are observational predictors including winter SST over the tropical Indian Ocean, sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Hudson Bay–Baffin Bay–Davis Strait in winter and the Barents–Kara Sea in autumn, and winter outgoing longwave radiation over the tropics. Different predictors impact the summer precipitation of different regions in China. Validations for schemes based on individual predictors (IP-schemes) and all predictors (HD-scheme) indicate that downscaling schemes outperform CFSv2 in predicting summer precipitation over China, especially the HD-scheme. The temporal and spatial anomaly correlation coefficient, root-mean-square errors, and ratio of the same sign (RSS) are estimated. For RSS (Anomalous RSS), the results are improved from 27.8% (23.8%) for CFSv2 to 77.8% (61.9%) for HD-scheme. Notably, the RSSs of IP-schemes based on SIC are equivalent to that of HD-scheme. This partly emphasizes the importance of preceding Arctic sea ice to summer rainfall in China. Moreover, two cases from hindcasts and two from the operational application are chosen for further validation of the prediction skill of HD-scheme. The case studies confirm that the hybrid downscaling model proposed in this paper not only outperforms CFSv2 but can also be applied well to real-time forecasting of summer precipitation over China. • One-season‑leading hybrid downscaling prediction model for summer rainfall in China. • Combination of the year-to-year increment method and spatially coupled downscaling approach. • Considering predictors with specific mechanisms from tropics to high latitudes. • Considering both simultaneous and preceding predictors • Well applied in real-time forecasting [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The annual precipitation in North China and South China shows a dipole pattern with a clear inter-decadal transition around the late 1970s. However, the relative contribution of internal variability and external forcing to this inter-decadal transition is still unclear. Here, we separate internal variability from the externally forced climate response through a set of dynamical downscaling simulations with lateral boundary conditions derived from reanalysis data and a large ensemble mean of the CMIP5 historical simulations. We find that internal variability accounts for about 65 and 55% of the inter-decadal transition of the annual precipitation in South and North China, respectively. By contrast, external forcing accounts for about 70% of the warming trend in eastern China over the second half of the 20th century. This study highlights the differential response of regional precipitation and air temperature to internal variability and external forcing over eastern China on an inter-decadal timescale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complex terrain, the sparse distribution of rain gauges, and the poor resolution and quality of satellite data in remote areas severely restrict the development of watershed hydrological modeling, meteorology, and ecological research. In this study, based on the relationship between cloud optical and physical properties and precipitation, a daily geographically weighted regression (GWR) precipitation downscaling model was constructed for the Three Rivers Source region, China, for the period from 2010 to 2014. The GWR precipitation downscaling model combined three different satellite precipitation datasets (CMORPH, IMERG, and ERA5) which were downscaled from a coarse resolution (0.25° and 0.1°) to a fine resolution (1 km). At the same time, the preliminary downscaling results were calibrated and verified by employing the geographic difference analysis (GDA) and geographic ratio analysis (GRA) methods combined with rainfall data. Finally, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy weight method (EW) were adopted to fuse the three downscaled and calibrated satellite precipitation datasets into the merged satellite precipitation dataset (MSP), which provides a higher quality of data (CC = 0.790, RMSE = 2.189 mm/day, and BIAS = 0.142 mm). In summary, the downscaling calibration and precipitation fusion scheme proposed in this study is suitable for obtaining high-resolution daily precipitation data in the Three Rivers Source region with a complex climate and topography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is an integral part of the regional hydrological cycle and energy balance and is extremely sensitive to climate change. Based on temperature data from 24 global climate models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), this study developed a multi-model ensemble based on delta statistical downscaling with multiple interpolation methods and evaluation indicators to predict the spatial and temporal evolution trends of ET0 in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) under four emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) for the near- (2022–2040), mid- (2041–2060), and long- (2081–2100) term future. Results demonstrate that regional data generated based on delta statistical downscaling had good simulation performance for the monthly mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures in the YRB, and the developed multi-model ensemble had better simulation capability than any single model. Compared to the historical period (1901–2014), the annual ET0 showed a highly significant increase for different future emission scenarios, and the increase is faster with increasing radiative forcing. The first main cycle of ET0 change was 52, 53, 60, and 48 years for the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively. ET0 in the YRB had positive values for EOF1 under all four emission scenarios, responding to a spatially consistent trend across the region. Compared to the historical period, the spatial distribution of ET0 under different future emission scenarios was characterized by being larger in the west and smaller in the east. As the radiative forcing scenario increased and time extended, ET0 significantly increased, with a maximum variation of 112.91% occurring in the western part of the YRB in the long-term future under the SSP585 scenario. This study can provide insight into the water cycle patterns of watersheds and scientific decision support for relevant departments to address the challenges of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate reanalysis products have been widely used to overcome the absence of high-quality and long-term observational records for wind energy users. In this study, the applicability of two popular reanalysis datasets (ERA5 and MERRA2) in estimating wind characteristics for four tall tower observatories (TTOs) in South China was assessed. For each TTO, linear and nonlinear downscaling techniques, namely, multiple linear regression (MLR) and an artificial neural network (ANN), respectively, were adopted for the downscaling of the scalar wind speed and the corresponding U/V components. The downscaled wind speed and U/V components were subsequently compared with the TTO observations by correlation coefficient (Pearson's r), the root mean square error (RMSE), the uncertainty analysis (U95), and the reliability analysis (RE). According to the results, ERA5 had a better applicability (higher Pearson's r and RE, but lower RMSE and U95) in estimating TTO wind speed than MERRA2 when using both the MLR and ANN downscaling method. The average Pearson's r, RE, RMSE, and U95 of the downscaled wind from ERA5 by the MLR (ANN) method were 0.66 (0.69), 40.8% (41.8%), 2.20 m/s (2.11 m/s), 0.181 m/s (0.179 m/s), respectively, and 0.60 (0.63), 38.0% (39.7%), 2.32 m/s (2.25 m/s), 0.189 m/s (0.187 m/s), respectively, for MERRA2. The wind components analysis showed that the better performance of ERA5 was attributed to its smaller error in estimating V component than MERRA2. For the wind direction, the two reanalysis datasets did not display distinct differences. Additionally, the misalignment of the wind direction between the reanalysis products and the TTOs was higher for the secondary predominant wind direction (SPWD) than for the predominant wind direction (PWD). Furthermore, we found that the reanalysis U wind had a higher RMSE but a lower RE and Pearson's r than the V wind, which indicates that the misalignment in the wind direction was mainly associated with the deviation in the U component. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite-derived rugged land surface temperature (LST) is an important parameter indicating the status of the Earth's surface energy budget and its seasonal/temporal dynamic change. However, existing LST products from rugged areas are more prone to error when supporting applications in mountainous areas and Earth surface processes that occur at high spatial and temporal resolutions. This research aimed to develop a method for generating rugged LST with a high temporal and spatial resolution by using an improved ensemble LST model combining three regressors, including a random forest, a ridge, and a support vector machine. Different combinations of high-resolution input parameters were also considered in this study. The input datasets included Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST datasets (MxD11A1) for nighttime, temporal Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) datasets, and digital elevation model (DEM) datasets. The 30 m rugged LST datasets derived were compared against an in situ LST dataset obtained at Saihanba Forest Park (SFP) sites and an ASTER-derived 90 m LST, respectively. The results with in situ measurements demonstrated significant LST details, with an R2 higher than 0.95 and RMSE around 3.00 K for both Terra/MOD- and Aqua/MYD-based LST datasets, and with slightly better results being obtained from the Aqua/MYD-based LST than that from Terra/MOD. The inter-comparison results with ASTER LST showed that over 80% of the pixels of the difference image for the two datasets were within 2 K. In light of the complex topography and distinct atmospheric conditions, these comparison results are encouraging. The 30 m LST from the method proposed in this study also depicts the seasonality of rugged surfaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To support future solar energy deployment in China, long‐term changes in solar energy resources over China were investigated based on high‐resolution dynamical downscaling simulations under three emission scenarios. First, an evaluation of model performance was conducted through comparison with station and ERA5 data, which indicated that although consistent overestimation was found, the spatial distribution and intra‐annual variation of solar radiation were captured well by ensemble simulation, showing added value over regions with complex topography as well. Then, the trends of the solar power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems during 2020–2099 were projected, characterized by an increase in east and central China, and a consistent decrease in the solar‐energy‐abundant regions (e.g., northeast China, the Tibetan Plateau, and northwest China) under the three scenarios. Except for under the low emission scenario, the regional averaged trends of PV were projected to decrease consistently over China in all four seasons, with significant magnitude apparent in both spring and winter. In addition, a more intense magnitude of decline was found under the higher emission scenario, with more subregions with a significant trend and higher intra‐annual and inter‐annual variability. However, it seems that the emission scenarios impact the spatial pattern only remarkably in the late century, however strengthened the decreasing magnitude in all future periods. In addition, results indicate decline in the future PV potential over most of subregions of China due to reduced radiation and increased temperature, but for the decrease over Tibetan Plateau the reduced wind speed also act as an important factor. Plain Language Summary: The long‐term goal of carbon neutrality in China involves new requirements for the development and utilization of solar energy. The present study was motivated by supporting future solar energy deployment at local scales. However, due to data limitations, relatively little effort has been made to project long‐term changes in solar energy over different subregions of China. Accordingly, we investigated this based on a set of high‐resolution dynamical downscaling simulations under different climate scenarios, and found that the higher emission scenarios reinforce the magnitude of the decline in solar energy and result in higher inter‐annual variability. These findings suggest an increased need for constraining emissions for the benefit of solar energy. In addition, we found that radiation will likely be the most important factor related to future changes in solar resources over most of subregions under RCP2.6 scenario, however the effect of wind speed should not be ignored over Tibetan Plateau. Key Points: Despite some overestimation, the spatial distribution and intra‐annual variation of solar radiation were captured well, showing added valuesFuture solar power were projected to generally increase in east and central China but decrease in solar‐energy‐abundant regionsRadiation was the most robust factor for future solar energy trend over China, however wind speed can not be ignored over Tibetan Plateau [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emergence of various high-resolution satellite precipitation products (SPPs) solves the problem of precipitation data sources for areas with a lack of precipitation data and is recognized as a reliable supplement to rain gauge observations in hydrometeorological applications. However, there still exists a shortcoming of coarse spatial resolution when applying these products to small and microscale river basins. In this study, a typical karst watershed in Southwest China—the Pingtang River Basin (PTRB)—was selected, and based on the relationship between precipitation and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), aspect, slope, and elevation, we used the geographically weighted regression (GWR) to downscale three SPPs, namely, global precipitation measurement (GPM), global satellite mapping of precipitation (GSMAP), and multisource weighted-ensemble precipitation (MSWEP), to 1 km × 1 km, respectively. Combined with rain gauge stations, the geographical differential analysis (GDA) was used to carry out error corrections to obtain three downscaling correction satellite precipitation products (DC-SPPs) with a 1 km spatial resolution, including DC-GPM, DC -GSMAP, and DC-MSWEP. Several statistical indices were used to perform error evaluation and precipitation capture ability analysis on SPPs and DC-SPPs, and the Grid-Xin'anjiang (the Grid-XAJ) model was used to compare their hydrological utility. The results show the following: (1) The downscaling correction method is effective. GWR can effectively improve the spatial resolution of SPPs, while GDA can reduce errors and further improve the accuracy of precipitation estimation. In addition, (2) the precipitation event characterization capabilities of GPM and GSMAP have been improved after downscaling correction, while the ability to capture precipitation events before and after the MSWEP correction is poor, showing a high hit rate and a high false alarm rate, which is unreliable to monitor precipitation events in the PTRB. Finally, (3) compared with SPPs, the hydrological performances of the three kinds of DC-SPPs have been significantly improved, and the NSE are all above 0.75 with low error. In general, the overall performance of DC-GSMAP is satisfactory. The accuracy of different SPPs after downscaling correction is different, but the applicability has been improved to different degrees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is of great importance to explore the future spatiotemporal dynamics of key meteorological hazard factors in Xiongan New Area, an area of great strategic significance under construction in China. Based on 6.25 km high-resolution downscaling projection data under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, Mann–Kendall trend and linear trend were analyzed, and then stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and time-varying GEV methods were determined to calculate the extremes of four key meteorological hazard factors with return periods of 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100 years during the projection period 1991–2050. Results show that extremes of annual maximum daily precipitation and annual maximum amount of consecutive precipitation under two climate scenarios will not increase too much. Extremes of annual maximum temperature will increase by above 1.5 °C under RCP4.5 scenario in most grids and above 1.9 °C under RCP8.5 scenario. Extremes of annual longest consecutive high-temperature days will increase by above 0.9d under RCP4.5 scenario and above 1.6d under RCP8.5 scenario. On the whole, the hazard of flood disaster will hardly show any change up to 2050, but there will be relatively higher flood hazard in Xiongxian county and its adjacent region. All regions in Xiongan New Area will face high hazard of high-temperature disaster. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The microthruster is the crucial device of the drag-free attitude control system, essential for the space-borne gravitational wave detection mission. The cusped field thruster (also called the High Efficiency Multistage Plasma Thruster) becomes one of the candidate thrusters for the mission due to its low complexity and potential long life over a wide range of thrust. However, the prescribed minimum of thrust and thrust noise are considerable obstacles to downscaling works on cusped field thrusters. This article reviews the development of the low power cusped field thruster at the Harbin Institute of Technology since 2012, including the design of prototypes, experimental investigations and simulation studies. Progress has been made on the downscaling of cusped field thrusters, and a new concept of microwave discharge cusped field thruster has been introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has accelerated surface water loss around the world. This study investigates in detail the change and attribution of potential evapotranspiration (PET) across China from 1901 to 2100 by the Hargreaves model, based on a 1-km temperature dataset downscaled from the low-spatial-resolution datasets using a Delta downscaling framework. Results showed that (1) relative to 1961–1990, PET increased by 0.62% in the historic period (1901–2017) and 6.43–12.89% for the future period (2018–2100), suggesting considerable future drying for China. Moreover, these increments had strong spatial variations and the largest increases were detected in high-elevation regions; (2) PET over entire China demonstrated a nonsignificant upward trend during the historic period and significant upward trends for the future period. For each period and GCM, significant upward PET trends occupied a much larger percent area than significant downward trends; (3) PET variations during the historic period were most sensitive to mean temperature (TMP), while in the future period it was more sensitive to maximum temperature (TMX), suggesting a change in the primary sensitivity factor due to global warming; (4) minimum temperature (TMN) made the largest contribution (45%) to PET variations during the historic period, while TMX had the largest contribution (36–40%) in the future period. Therefore, the primary contributing factor might transform from TMN to TMX under climate change; and (5) PET variations exhibited strong spatial heterogeneity, detected on fine geographic scales, due to the use of downscaled dataset. Overall, the results present a deep insight for planning coping strategies of global warming in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a stepwise-clustered statistical downscaling model is established to simulate future apparent temperatures based on NCEP reanalysis data and four global climate models (GCMs). AP is a metric used to quantify thermal comfort or discomfort. The model can express nonlinear relationships between variables at large scale and local scale. The model is employed for projecting future apparent temperature changes over the Pearl River Delta (PRD), on the south coast of China, under three representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. The cluster tree generated for the daily apparent temperature is calibrated for the period 1971–1990 and validated for the period 1991–2000. The R2 values obtained for the validation period at eight selected cities for four GCMs (i.e., CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, and IPSL-CM5A-LR) are 0.88, 0.87, 0.86, and 0.87, respectively. The results reflected that apparent temperature is projected to have a constant increment over the PRD in the future period (2035–2095). Moreover, the monthly apparent temperature in April has the largest expected increment in the future period, while the smallest increment is found in January. The results also indicated that the apparent temperature increases faster than the air temperature under the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 scenarios in the PRD. The findings illuminate that the expected increase in apparent temperature over the PRD can be mainly explained by increasing air temperatures and decreasing wind speeds. The results can provide decision makers with useful information for urban health risk assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensification of heat stress reduces the labor capacity and hence poses a threat to socio‐economic development. The reliable projection of the changing climate and the development of sound adaptation strategies are thus desired for adapting to the decreasing labor productivity under climate change. In this study, an optimization modeling approach coupled with dynamical downscaling is proposed to design the optimal adaptation strategies for improving labor productivity under heat stress in China. The future changes in heat stress represented by the wet‐bulb globe temperature (WBGT) are projected with a spatial resolution of 25 × 25 km by a regional climate model (RCM) through the dynamical downscaling of its driving global climate model (GCM). Uncertain information such as system costs, environmental costs, and subsidies are also incorporated into the optimization process to provide reliable decision alternatives for improving labor productivity. Results indicate that the intensification of WBGT is overestimated by the GCM compared to the RCM. Such an overestimation can lead to more losses in working hours derived from the GCM than those from the RCM regardless of climate scenarios. Nevertheless, the overestimated heat stress does not alter the regional measures taken to adapt to decreasing labor productivity. Compared to inland regions, the monsoon‐affected regions tend to improve labor productivity by applying air conditioning rather than working overtime due to the cost differences. Consequently, decision‐makers need to optimally make a balance between working overtime and air conditioning measures to meet sustainable development goals. Key Points: An optimization model coupled with dynamical downscaling is developed to improve labor productivity under intensified heat stress in ChinaCivilian workers in inland regions will be more vulnerable to the intensified heat stress in a changing climateCompared to the regional climate model, the global climate model overestimates heat stress and thus exaggerates related system costs to recover from the working hour loss [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-density surface networks have become available in recent years in a number of regions throughout the world, but their utility in high-resolution dynamic downscaling has not been examined. As an attempt to fill such a gap, a suite of high-resolution (4 km) dynamical downscaling simulations is developed in this study with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and observation nudging over Liaoning in northeastern China. Three experiments, including no nudging (CTL), analysis nudging (AN), and combined analysis nudging and observation nudging with surface observations (AON), are conducted to downscale the CFSv2 reanalysis with the WRF Model for the year 2015. The three 1-yr regional climate simulations were compared with the independent surface observations. The results show that observational nudging can improve the simulation of surface variables, including temperature, wind speed, humidity, and pressure, more than nudging large-scale driving data with AN alone. The two nudging simulations can improve the cold bias for the temperature of the WRF Model. For precipitation, both the simulations with AN and observation nudging can capture the pattern of precipitation; however, with the introduction of small-scale information at the surface, AON cannot further improve the simulation of precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because downscaling tools are needed to support climate change mitigation and adaptation practices, the guarantee of their credibility is of vital importance. To evaluate downscaling results, one needs to select a set of effective and nonoverlapping indices that reflect key system attributes. However, this subject is still insufficiently researched. With this study, we propose a diagnostic framework that evaluates the credibility of precipitation downscaling using five different attributes: spatial, temporal, trend, extreme, and climate event. A daily variant of the bias-corrected spatial downscaling approach is used to downscale daily precipitation from the GFDL-ESM2G climate model at 148 stations in the Yangtze River basin in China. Results prove that this framework is effective in systematically evaluating the performance of downscaling across the Yangtze River basin in the context of climate change and exacerbating climate extremes. Moreover, results also indicate that the downscaling approach adopted in this study yields good performance in correcting spatiotemporal bias, preserving trends, approximating extremes, and characterizing climate events across the Yangtze River basin. The proposed framework can be beneficial to planners and engineers facing issues relevant to climate change assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current dynamic models are not able to provide reliable seasonal forecasts of regional/local rainfall. This study aims to improve the seasonal forecast of early summer rainfall at stations in South China through statistical downscaling. A statistical downscaling model was built with the canonical correlation analysis method using 850-hPa zonal wind and relative humidity from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. An anomalous southwesterly wind that carries sufficient water vapor encounters an anomalous northeasterly wind from the Yangtze River, resulting in a wet anomaly over all of South China. Thismodel provided good agreementwith observations in both the training and independent test periods. In an independent test, the average temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) at 14 stations was 0.52, and the average root-mean-square error was 21%. Then, the statistical downscaling model was applied to the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), outputs to produce seasonal forecasts of rainfall for 1982–2018.Astatistical downscalingmodel improved CFSv2 forecasts of station rainfall in South China with the averageTCC increasing from0.14 to 0.31. Forecasts of South China regionally averaged rainfall were also improved with the TCC increasing from0.11 to 0.53. The dependence of forecast skill for regional average rainfall on ENSOevents was examined. Forecast error was reduced, but not statistically significant, when it followed an El Niño event in both CFSv2 and the downscaling model. While when it followed an EP-type El Niño, the significantly reduced forecast error (at the 0.1 level) could be seen in the downscaling model and CFSv2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Top-down emission estimates provide valuable up-to-date information on pollution sources; however, the computational effort and spatial resolution of satellite products involved with developing these emissions often require them to be estimated at resolutions that are much coarser than is necessary for regional air quality forecasting. This work thus introduces several approaches to downscaling coarse-resolution (2∘×2.5∘) posterior SO2 and NOx emissions for improving air quality assessment and forecasts over China in October 2013. As in Part 1 of this study, these 2∘×2.5∘ posterior SO2 and NOx emission inventories are obtained from GEOS-Chem adjoint modeling with the constraints of OMPS SO2 and NO2 products retrieved at 50km×50km at nadir and ∼190km×50km at the edge of ground track. The prior emission inventory (MIX) and the posterior GEOS-Chem simulations of surface SO2 and NO2 concentrations at coarse resolution underestimate observed hot spots, which is called the coarse-grid smearing (CGS) effect. To mitigate the CGS effect, four methods are developed: (a) downscale 2∘×2.5∘ GEOS-Chem surface SO2 and NO2 concentrations to the resolution of 0.25∘×0.3125∘ through a dynamic downscaling concentration (MIX-DDC) approach, which assumes that the 0.25∘×0.3125∘ simulation using the prior MIX emissions has the correct spatial distribution of SO2 and NO2 concentrations but a systematic bias; (b) downscale surface NO2 simulations at 2∘×2.5∘ to 0.05∘×0.05∘ according to the spatial distribution of Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) nighttime light (NL) observations (e.g., NL-DC approach) based on correlation between VIIRS NL intensity with TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) NO2 observations; (c) downscale posterior emissions (DE) of SO2 and NOx to 0.25∘×0.3125∘ with the assumption that the prior fine-resolution MIX inventory has the correct spatial distribution (e.g., MIX-DE approach); and (d) downscale posterior NOx emissions using VIIRS NL observations (e.g., NL-DE approach). Numerical experiments reveal that (a) using the MIX-DDC approach, posterior SO2 and NO2 simulations improve on the corresponding MIX prior simulations with normalized centered root mean square error (NCRMSE) decreases of 63.7 % and 30.2 %, respectively; (b) the posterior NO2 simulation has an NCRMSE that is 17.9 % smaller than the prior when they are both downscaled through NL-DC, and NL-DC is able to better mitigate the CGS effect than MIX-DDC; (c) the simulation at 0.25∘×0.3125∘ using the MIX-DE approach has NCRMSEs that are 58.8 % and 14.7 % smaller than the prior 0.25∘×0.3125∘ MIX simulation for surface SO2 and NO2 concentrations, respectively, but the RMSE from the MIX-DE posterior simulation is slightly larger than that from the MIX-DDC posterior simulation for both SO2 and NO2 ; (d) the NL-DE posterior NO2 simulation also improves on the prior MIX simulation at 0.25∘×0.3125∘ , but it is worse than the MIX-DE posterior simulation; (e) in terms of evaluating the downscaled SO2 and NO2 simulations simultaneously, using the posterior SO2 and NOx emissions from joint inverse modeling of both species is better than only using one (SO2 or NOx) emission from corresponding single-species inverse modeling and is similar to using the posterior emissions of SO2 and NOx emission inventories respectively from single-species inverse modeling. Forecasts of surface concentrations for November 2013 using the posterior emissions obtained by applying the posterior MIX-DE emissions for October 2013 with the monthly variation information derived from the prior MIX emission inventory show that (a) the improvements of forecasting surface SO2 concentrations through MIX-DE and MIX-DDC are comparable; (b) for the NO2 forecast, MIX-DE shows larger improvement than NL-DE and MIX-DDC; (c) NL-DC is able to better decrease the CGS effect than MIX-DE but shows larger NCRMSE; (d) the forecast of surface O3 concentrations is improved by MIX-DE downscaled posterior NOx emissions. Overall, for practical forecasting of air quality, it is recommended to use satellite-based observation already available from the last month to jointly constrain SO2 and NO2 emissions at coarser resolution and then downscale these posterior emissions at finer spatial resolution suitable for regional air quality modeling for the present month. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land surface temperature (LST), described as one of the most important environmental parameters in regional and global scales, has played an essential role on material cycle and energy exchange in terrestrial ecosystem. However, as the trade-off between spatial and temporal resolution of the remote sensed LST products, many downscaling algorithms have been proposed to generate the LST products with both high spatial and temporal resolution. The typical downscaling models, usually trained on specific area, are often region-restricted, which cannot be applied to other study areas or may show a disappointed result. In this paper, a multivariable random forest (MRF) model is developed to downscale the LST product of MODIS from 1km to 100m in China. This MRF model is trained with multi-type predictor variables, including reflectance, terrain factors, spectral indices, land cover types and local climate variables. Multi-type regions in China such as mountains, flatlands, wetlands as well as metropolis will be used to evaluate the performance of the developed MRF model. The LST of any kind of regions can be downscaled from 1km to 100m with pretty good accuracy. It is worth mentioning that the introduction of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data as the local climate variables helps depict the difference of land surface basic characteristics so that the MRF model becomes more regionally robust. The result shows that: (1) The MRF model achieves more satisfactory accuracies than typical algorithms like TsHARP in specific region. (2) With a large number of multiple samples being trained, the fitting accuracy, the prediction accuracy of the model, as well as the correlation coefficient have been improved significantly. The predicted LSTs yield the accepted accuracies even for the regions with complicated land cover types, such as downtown areas, which cannot be achieved absolutely by TsHARP method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bosten Lake is an important region of Northwest China that has transformed from a freshwater lake to a saltwater lake since the 1970s. The water quality in the Bosten Lake basin is important for social and economic development, and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are the key indicators of water quality. The land use data, precipitation data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model were used to simulate the N and P exports of the Bosten Lake basin. The spatial and temporal dynamics of nitrogen and phosphorus exports, and the response of nitrogen and phosphorus exports to land use change and precipitation change were analyzed between 2000 and 2015. The results show that the amount of N and P exports increased during 2000–2015, and the N and P exports are mainly distributed around Bosten Lake. The N and P exports are greatly affected by cultivated land, built-up areas and grassland, while they are less affected by other land use types. The high precipitation areas with small exports of N and P are mainly distributed in mountain areas, while small precipitation areas with large exports of N and P are distributed in plains where the cultivated land and built-up areas are concentrated. The InVEST model can be used in Northwest China, and the statistical downscaling of reanalysis precipitation data can be used in the InVEST model to improve the simulation accuracy in the data scarce regions of Northwest China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to assess the performance of different dynamical downscaling methods using updated land surface information. Particular attention is given to obtaining high-resolution climate information over China by the combination of an appropriate dynamical downscaling method and updated land surface information. Two group experiments using two land surface datasets are performed, including default Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) land surface data (OLD) and accurate dynamically accordant MODIS data (NEW). Each group consists of three types of experiments for the summer of 2014, including traditional continuous integration (CT), spectral nudging (SN), and re-initialization (Re) experiments. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale ERA-Interim (reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, ECMWF) data with a grid spacing of 30 km over China. The simulations are evaluated via comparison with observed conventional meteorological variables, showing that the CT method, which notably overestimates 2 m temperature and underestimates 2 m relative humidity across China, performs the worst; the SN and Re runs outperform the CT method, and the Re shows the smallest RMSE (root means square error). A comparison of observed and simulated precipitation shows that the SN simulation is closest to the observed data, while the CT and Re simulations overestimate precipitation south of the Yangtze River. Compared with the OLD group, the RMSE values of temperature and relative humidity are significantly improved in CT and SN, and there is smaller improved in Re. However, obvious improvements in precipitation are not evident. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monthly rainfall in the Heihe River Basin (HRB) was simulated by the dynamical downscaling model (DDM) and statistical downscaling model (SDM). The rainy-season rainfall in the HRB obtained by SDM and DDM was compared with the observed datasets (OBS) over the period of 2003-2012. The results showed the following: (1) Both methods reasonably reproduced the spatial pattern of rainy-season rainfall in the HRB with a high-level skill. Rainfall simulated by DDM was better than that by SDM in the upstream, with biases of −12.09 and −13.59 %, respectively; rainfall simulated by SDM was better than that by DDM in the midstream, with biases of 3.91 and −23.22 %, respectively; there was little difference between the rainfall simulated by SDM and DDM in the downstream, with biases of −10.89 and −9.50 %, respectively. (2) Both methods reasonably reproduced monthly rainfall in rainy season in different subregions. Rainfall simulated by DDM was better than that by SDM in May and July in the upstream, whereas rainfall simulated by SDM was closer to OBS except August in the midstream and except August and September in the downstream. (3) For multi-year mean rainy-season rainfall in different stations, there was a little difference between the rainfall simulated by DDM and SDM in Tuole station in the upstream, with biases of −13.16 and −12.40 %, respectively; rainfall in Zhangye station simulated by SDM was overestimated with bias of 14.02 %, and rainfall simulated by DDM was underestimated with bias of −14.60 %; rainfall in Dingxin station simulated by DDM was reproduced better than that by SDM, with biases of −19.34 and −32.75 %, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lack of high spatial resolution precipitation data, which are crucial for the modeling and managing of hydrological systems, has triggered many attempts at spatial downscaling. The essence of downscaling lies in extracting extra information from a dataset through some scale-invariant characteristics related to the process of interest. While most studies utilize only one source of information, here we propose an approach that integrates two independent information sources, which are characterized by self-similar and relationship with other geo-referenced factors, respectively. This approach is applied to 16 years (1998-2013) of TRMM 3B43 monthly precipitation data in an orographic and monsoon influenced region in South China. Elevation, latitude, and longitude are used as predictive variables in the regression model, while self-similarity is characterized by multifractals and modeled by a log-normal multiplicative random cascade. The original 0.25° precipitation field was downscaled to the 0.01° scale. The result was validated with rain gauge data. Good consistency was achieved on coefficient of determination, bias, and root mean square error. This study contributes to the current precipitation downscaling methodology and is helpful for hydrology and water resources management, especially in areas with insufficient ground gauges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performances of various dynamical models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME) in predicting station-scale rainfall in South China (SC) in June were evaluated. It was found that the MME mean of model hindcasts can skillfully predict the June rainfall anomaly averaged over the SC domain. This could be related to the MME's ability in capturing the observed linkages between SC rainfall and atmospheric large-scale circulation anomalies in the Indo-Pacific region. Further assessment of station-scale June rainfall prediction based on direct model output (DMO) over 97 stations in SC revealed that the MME mean outperforms each individual model. However, poor prediction abilities in some in-land and southeastern SC stations are apparent in the MME mean and in a number of models. In order to improve the performance at those stations with poor DMO prediction skill, a station-based statistical downscaling scheme was constructed and applied to the individual and MME mean hindcast runs. For several models, this scheme can outperform DMO at more than 30 stations, because it can tap into the abilities of the models in capturing the anomalous Indo-Pacific circulation to which SC rainfall is considerably sensitive. Therefore, enhanced rainfall prediction abilities in these models should make them more useful for disaster preparedness and mitigation purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated the performance of three frequently applied statistical downscaling tools including SDSM, SVM, and LARS-WG, and their model-averaging ensembles under diverse moisture conditions with respect to the capability of reproducing the extremes as well as mean behaviors of precipitation. Daily observed precipitation and NCEP reanalysis data of 30 stations across China were collected for the period 1961-2000, and model parameters were calibrated for each season at individual site with 1961-1990 as the calibration period and 1991-2000 as the validation period. A flexible framework of multi-criteria model averaging was established in which model weights were optimized by the shuffled complex evolution algorithm. Model performance was compared for the optimal objective and nine more specific metrics. Results indicate that different downscaling methods can gain diverse usefulness and weakness in simulating various precipitation characteristics under different circumstances. SDSM showed more adaptability by acquiring better overall performance at a majority of the stations while LARS-WG revealed better accuracy in modeling most of the single metrics, especially extreme indices. SVM provided more usefulness under drier conditions, but it had less skill in capturing temporal patterns. Optimized model averaging, aiming at certain objective functions, can achieve a promising ensemble with increasing model complexity and computational cost. However, the variation of different methods' performances highlighted the tradeoff among different criteria, which compromised the ensemble forecast in terms of single metrics. As the superiority over single models cannot be guaranteed, model averaging technique should be used cautiously in precipitation downscaling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A statistical downscaling approach was developed to improve seasonal-to-interannual prediction of summer rainfall over North China by considering the effect of decadal variability based on observational datasets and dynamical model outputs. Both predictands and predictors were first decomposed into interannual and decadal components. Two predictive equations were then built separately for the two distinct timescales by using multivariate linear regressions based on independent sample validation. For the interannual timescale, 850-hPa meridional wind and 500-hPa geopotential heights from multiple dynamical models' hindcasts and SSTs from observational datasets were used to construct predictors. For the decadal timescale, two well-known basin-scale SST decadal oscillation (the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) indices were used as predictors. Then, the downscaled predictands were combined to represent the predicted/hindcasted total rainfall. The prediction was compared with the models' raw hindcasts and those from a similar approach but without timescale decomposition. In comparison to hindcasts from individual models or their multi-model ensemble mean, the skill of the present scheme was found to be significantly higher, with anomaly correlation coefficients increasing from nearly neutral to over 0.4 and with RMSE decreasing by up to 0.6 mm d. The improvements were also seen in the station-based temporal correlation of the predictions with observed rainfall, with the coefficients ranging from −0.1 to 0.87, obviously higher than the models' raw hindcasted rainfall results. Thus, the present approach exhibits a great advantage and may be appropriate for use in operational predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]