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Introduction: Co‐production is gaining increasing recognition as a good way of facilitating collaboration among different stakeholders, including members of the public. However, it remains an ambiguous concept as there is no definitive or universal model of co‐production or clarity on what constitutes a good co‐production approach. This paper draws on the reflections of the academic researchers, practitioners and public advisors involved in co‐producing a priority‐setting exercise. The exercise was conducted by the Primary and Community Health Services (PCHS) Theme of the National Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration for Kent, Surrey and Sussex (NIHR ARC KSS). Methods: We collected data through written and verbal reflections from seven collaborators involved in the PCHS priority‐setting exercise. We used Gibbs' model of reflection to guide the data collection. We then analysed the data through an inductive, reflexive thematic analysis. Results: A common thread through our reflections was the concept of 'sharing'. Although co‐production is inherently shared, we used the virtuous cycle to illustrate a sequence of sharing concepts during the research cycle, which provides the underpinnings of positive co‐production outcomes. We identified six themes to denote the iterative process of a shared approach within the virtuous cycle: shared values, shared understanding, shared power, shared responsibilities, shared ownership and positive outcomes. Conclusion: Our results present a virtuous cycle of co‐production, which furthers the conceptual underpinnings of co‐production. Through our reflections, we propose that positive co‐production outcomes require foundations of shared values and a shared understanding of co‐production as a concept. These foundations facilitate a process of shared power, shared responsibilities and shared ownership. We argue that when these elements are present in a co‐production exercise, there is a greater potential for implementable outcomes in the communities in which the research serves and the empowerment of collaborators involved in the co‐production process. Public Members' Contributions: Three members of the public who are public advisors in the NIHR ARC KSS were involved in the priority‐setting exercise that informed this paper. The public advisors were involved in the design of the priority‐setting exercise and supported participants' recruitment. They also co‐facilitated the focus groups during data collection and were involved in the data analysis, interpretation and preparation of the priority‐setting report. For this current manuscript, two of them are co‐authors. They provided reflections and contributed to the writing and reviewing of this manuscript. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Migrant and ethnic inequalities in maternal and perinatal mortality persist across high‐income countries. Addressing social adversity and inequities across the childbirth trajectory cannot be left to chance and the good intentions of practitioners. Robust, evidence‐based tools designed to address inequity by enhancing both the quality of provision and the experience of care are needed. Methods: An inductive modelling approach was used to develop a new evidence‐based conceptual model of woman–midwife relationships, drawing on data from an ethnographic study of relationships between migrant Pakistani women and midwives, conducted between 2013 and 2016 in South Wales, UK. Key analytic themes from early data were translated into social–ecological concepts, and a model was developed to represent how these key themes interacted to influence the woman–midwife relationship. Results: Three key concepts influencing the woman–midwife relationship were developed from the three major themes of the underpinning research: (1) Healthcare System; (2) Culture and Religion; and (3) Family Relationships. Two additional weaving concepts appeared to act as a link between these three key concepts: (1) Authoritative Knowledge and (2) Communication of Information. Social and political factors were also considered as contextual factors within the model. A visual representation of this model was developed and presented. Conclusions: The model presented in this paper, along with future work to further test and refine it in other contexts, has the potential to impact on inequalities by facilitating future discussion on cultural issues, encouraging collaborative learning and knowledge production and providing a framework for future global midwifery practice, education and research. Patient or Public Contribution: At the outset of the underpinning research, a project involvement group was created to contribute to study design and conduct. This group consisted of the three authors, an Advocacy Officer at Race Equality First and an NHS Consultant Midwife. This group met regularly throughout the research process, and members were involved in discussions regarding ethical/cultural/social issues, recruitment methods, the creation of participant information materials, interpretation of data and the dissemination strategy. Ideas for the underpinning research were also discussed with members of the Pakistani community during community events and at meetings with staff from minority ethnic and migrant support charities (BAWSO, Race Equality First, The Mentor Ring). Local midwives contributed to study design through conversations during informal observations of antenatal appointments for asylum seekers and refugees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reduced inertia levels in low-carbon power grids necessitate explicit constraints to limit frequency’s nadir and rate of change during scheduling. This can result in significant curtailment of renewable energy due to the minimum generation of thermal plants that are needed to provide frequency response (FR) and inertia. Additional consideration of fast FR, a dynamically reduced largest loss and under frequency load shedding (UFLS) allows frequency security to be achieved more cost effectively. This paper derives a novel constraint from the swing equation to contain the frequency nadir using all of these services. The expected cost of UFLS is found probabilistically to facilitate its comparison to the other frequency services. We demonstrate that this constraint can be accurately and conservatively approximated for moderate UFLS levels with a second order cone (SOC), resulting in highly tractable convex problems. Case studies performed on a Great Britain 2030 system demonstrate that UFLS as an option to contain single plant outages can reduce annual operational costs by up to $\pounds $ 559 m, 52% of frequency security costs. The sensitivity of this value to wind penetration, abundance of alternative frequency services, UFLS amount and cost is explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Papermaking is known as an energy-intensive, but not always efficient industry. This is at least partly due to the fact that the majority of papermaking technologies and procedures were established at a time when energy was both cheap and plentiful. A considerable fraction of the energy required for papermaking is consumed in removing water by the use of steam in the paper machine’s drying section. It is also known that even a small reduction in steam use can result in a significant reduction in production costs and environmental effects. To date, a great deal of research has been undertaken, aimed at improving the performance of the drying section by making more efficient use of dryer steam. This paper investigates a new approach to reducing thermal energy use in paper making by seeking to enhance the amount of water removed in sections of the machine prior to the drying section. The proposed method is focused on sequential modelling of the effect of vacuums used in the forming section on the thermal energy consumption in the drying section. The primary models explain how different vacuum pressures can affect the flow of water from the sheet in the forming section whilst the secondary models describe the effect of increased drainage on the steam requirements in the dryer. Operational data from a UK paper mill are used to illustrate the proposed method. The models developed can have subsequent application to optimising the use of thermal energy in paper making. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: People with long term conditions (LTCs) make most of the daily decisions and carry out the activities which affect their health and quality of life. Only a fraction of each contact with a health care professional (HCP) is spent supporting this. This paper describes how care and support planning (CSP) and an implementation framework to redesign services, were developed to address this in UK general practice. Focussed on what is important to each individual, CSP brings together traditional clinical issues and the person's lived experience in a solution focussed, forward looking conversation with an emphasis on 'people not diseases'. Methods: The components of CSP were developed in three health communities using diabetes as an exemplar. This model was extended and refined for other single conditions and multimorbidity across 40 sites and two nations, over 15 years. Working with local teams and communities the authors used theoretical models of care, implementation and spread, developing and tailoring training, support and resources to embed CSP as usual care, sharing learning across a community of practice. Results: The purpose, content, process, developmental hurdles and impact of this CSP model are described, alongside an implementation strategy. There is now a robust, reproducible five step model; preparation, conversation, recording, actions and review. Uniquely, preparation, involving information sharing with time for reflection, enables an uncluttered conversation with a professional focussed on what is important to each person. The components of the Year of Care House act as a checklist for implementation, a metaphor for their interdependence and a flexible framework. Spreading CSP involved developing exemplar practices and building capacity across local health communities. These reported improved patient experience, practitioner job satisfaction, health behaviours and outcomes, teamwork, practice organisation, resource use, and links with wider community activities. Conclusions: Tested in multiple settings, CSP is a reproducible and practical model of planned care applicable to all LTCs, with the capacity to be transformative for people with LTCs and health care professionals. It recaptures relational dimensions of care with transactional elements in the background. Options for applying this model and implementation framework at scale now need to be explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a systematic review of academic literature and policy papers since 2008 is undertaken with an aim of identifying the prevalent energy systems models and tools in the UK. A list of all referenced models is presented and the literature is analysed with regards sectoral coverage and technological inclusion, as well as mathematical structure of models. The paper compares available models using an appropriate classification schema, the introduction of which is aimed at making the model landscape more accessible and perspicuous, thereby enhancing the diversity of models within use. The distinct classification presented in this paper comprises three sections, which specify the model purpose and structure, technological detail and mathematical approach. The schema is not designed to be comprehensive, but rather to be a broad classification with pertinent level of information required to differentiate between models. As an example, the UK model landscape is considered and 22 models are classified in three tables, as per the proposed schema. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Atkinson, J.; Esteves, L.S.; Williams, J.W.; McCann D.L., and Bell, P.S., 2018. The Application of X-Band Radar for Characterisation of Nearshore Dynamics on a Mixed Sand and Gravel Beach. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 281–285. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Remote sensing using X-band radar allows the estimation of wave parameters, near surface currents and the underlying bathymetry. This paper explores the use of radar to derive nearshore bathymetry at a complex site, at Thorpeness in Suffolk, UK. The site has a history of sporadic and focused erosion events along the beach frontage and as part of the X-Com project (X-band Radar and Evidence-Based Coastal Management Decisions) a radar system was deployed with the aim of further understanding the complex nearshore sediment processes influencing erosion. Initially, the bathymetric variation at the site is quantified through analysis of current and historic multibeam surveys. These indicate depth changes approaching 3 m. Subsequently, validation of the radar data against concurrent multibeam survey data has been undertaken. Results show that the radar derived bathymetry has a precision of ±1m at the site, with the largest errors being associated with areas of more complex bathymetry and where wave data quality was less suitable for analysis by the X-band radar bathymetry algorithms. It is concluded that although the accuracy of radar-derived bathymetry is lower than traditional multibeam survey, the low cost for high temporal coverage can be utilised for long-term monitoring of coastal sites where a cost-effective means of quantifying large-scale bathymetric changes is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The consumption patterns of Western nations are generally deemed to be unsustainable. Yet there is little attempt to restrain either material throughput or income growth. Nonetheless, in the face of the need to make ‘deep’ cuts in carbon emissions (for instance), consumption restraint may be a perfectly legitimate response. This paper explores the potential for a Reduced Consumption Scenario in the UK constructed by assuming that households achieve a specific ‘minimum income standard’ which is deemed to provide a decent life for each household type. The minimum income standards are taken from a recent study for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and include not only subsistence commodities such as food, warmth and shelter but also the means to participate effectively in society. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation study produced detailed household expenditure budgets for these income standards. The paper uses an environmentally extended Quasi-Multi-Regional Input–Output model to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions required in the production and distribution of all goods and services purchased according to these budgets. Our results show that average household GHG emissions in the UK would be around 37% lower in the Reduced Consumption Scenario than they are currently. We explore several implications of these findings including: the need to change social norms around consumption, the need for investment to improve the thermal performance of homes and the need to develop new transport infrastructures. We also address the potential to reduce emissions below the level achieved in this Scenario and discuss the implications for policy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: People are increasingly living for longer with multimorbidity. Medical education and healthcare delivery must be re-orientated to meet the societal and individual patient needs that multimorbidity confers. The impact of multimorbidity on the educational needs of doctors is little understood. There has been little critique of how learning alongside healthcare provision is negotiated by patients, general practitioners and trainee doctors. This study asked ‘what is known about how and why concurrent healthcare delivery and professional experiential learning interact to generate outcomes, valued by patients, general practitioners and trainees, for patients with multimorbidity in primary care?' Methods: This realist synthesis is reported using RAMESES standards. Relationship-centred negotiation of needs-based learning and care was the primary outcome of interest. Healthcare, social science and educational literature were sought as evidence. Data extraction focused on context, mechanism and outcome configurations within studies and on data which might assist understanding and explain; i) these configurations; ii) the relationships between them and; iii) their role and place in evolving programme theories arising from data synthesis. Mind-mapping software and team meetings were used to aid interpretative analysis. Results: The final synthesis included 141 papers of which 34 contained models for workplace-based experiential learning and/or patient care. Models of experiential learning for practitioners and for patient engagement were congruent, frequently referencing theories of transformation and socio-cultural processes as mechanisms for improving clinical care. Key issues included the perceived impossibility of reconciling personalised concepts of success with measurability of clinical markers or adherence to guidelines, and the need for greater recognition of social dynamics between patients, GPs and trainees including the complexities of shared responsibilities. A model for considering the implications of concurrency for learning and healthcare delivery in the context of multimorbidity in primary care is proposed and supporting evidence is presented. Conclusions: This study is novel in considering empirical evidence from patients, GPs and trainees engaged in concurrent learning and healthcare delivery. The findings should inform future interventions designed to produce a medical workforce equipped to provide multimorbidity care. Trial registration: PROSPERO International prospective register of systematic reviews CRD42013003862 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous methods have been proposed for forecasting load for normal days. Modeling of anomalous load, however, has often been ignored in the research literature. Occurring on special days, such as public holidays, anomalous load conditions pose considerable modeling challenges due to their infrequent occurrence and significant deviation from normal load. To overcome these limitations, we adopt a rule-based approach, which allows incorporation of prior expert knowledge of load profiles into the statistical model. We use triple seasonal Holt-Winters-Taylor (HWT) exponential smoothing, triple seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA), artificial neural networks (ANNs), and triple seasonal intraweek singular value decomposition (SVD) based exponential smoothing. These methods have been shown to be competitive for modeling load for normal days. The methodological contribution of this paper is to demonstrate how these methods can be adapted to model load for special days, when used in conjunction with a rule-based approach. The proposed rule-based method is able to model normal and anomalous load in a unified framework. Using nine years of half-hourly load for Great Britain, we evaluate point forecasts, for lead times from one half-hour up to a day ahead. A combination of two rule-based methods generated the most accurate forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

There is increasing concern about the lack of accuracy in population projections at national levels. A common problem has been the systematic underestimation of improvements in mortality, especially at older ages, resulting in projections that are too low. In this paper, we present a method that is based on projecting survivorship rather than mortality, which uses the same data but differs technically. In particular, rather than extrapolating trends in mortality, we use trends in life expectancy to establish a robust statistical relation between changes in life expectancy and survivorship using period life tables. We test the approach on data for England and Wales for the population aged 50 and over, and show that it gives more accurate projections than official projections using the same base data. Using the model to project the population aged 50 and over to 2020, our method suggests nearly 0.6 million more people in this age group than official projections. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: This paper outlines the development and application of a domestic heat pump model for space heating and cooling energy. The model is intended to bridge the gap between the single coefficient of performance parameter currently used in the UK procedures for the assessment of the energy efficiency of dwellings and the dynamic simulation models frequently developed for the academic estimation of heat pump energy use. It is responsive to variations in source and sink temperatures whilst being simple enough to be embedded in a spreadsheet model. The model was developed by: building a regression model, using heat pump performance test results, relating heat pump coefficient of performance to the differential between source and sink temperatures – “lift”; deriving estimating rules for monthly supply temperature estimates for commonly-used heat pump sources and for demand temperatures for normal wet central heating sinks to give a monthly estimate for the source/sink differential; embedding the regression model in the UK standard model for domestic energy estimation, with additional routines to estimate energy consumption for additional heat and for space cooling. The model developed was validated by comparison with the existing BREDEM model. Compared with the standard BREDEM estimates, the resulting model showed correct response to changes in ambient temperatures, allowing correct estimating of consumption for additional heat under conditions of climate change. It showed variation of heat pump coefficient of performance across the year, allowing better estimation of winter peak load. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Income is regarded as one of the clearest indicators of socioeconomic status and wellbeing in the developed world and is highly correlated with a wide range of outcomes. Despite its importance, there remains an issue as to the best way to collect income as part of surveys. This paper examines differences in how income is collected in a nationally representative UK birth cohort, the Millennium Cohort Study, looking at variations by questions asked and by respondent characteristics before then examining the implications different methods of collecting and reporting income may have for measuring poverty. Results show that less than a third of respondents give consistent information on income between measurement tools. Using multiple questions is associated with a substantially lower response rate but this method generally results in a higher estimate of family income than using a single question. This is particularly true for certain groups of the population-those on means tested benefits, in self-employment and in part-time employment. Not surprisingly then in our analysis of poverty, using a single question produces an inflated proportion of families who could be classified as living in poverty and is less associated with other measures of financial deprivation than the more conservative poverty measure based on multiple questions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A growing proportion of people are living with long term conditions. The majority have more than one. Dealing with multi-morbidity is a complex problem for health systems: for those designing and implementing healthcare as well as for those providing the evidence informing practice. Yet the concept of multi-morbidity (the presence of >2 diseases) is a product of the design of health care systems which define health care need on the basis of disease status. So does the solution lie in an alternative model of healthcare? Discussion: Strengthening generalist practice has been proposed as part of the solution to tackling multi-morbidity. Generalism is a professional philosophy of practice, deeply known to many practitioners, and described as expertise in whole person medicine. But generalism lacks the evidence base needed by policy makers and planners to support service redesign. The challenge is to fill this practice-research gap in order to critically explore if and when generalist care offers a robust alternative to management of this complex problem. We need practice-based evidence to fill this gap. By recognising generalist practice as a 'complex intervention' (intervening in a complex system), we outline an approach to evaluate impact using action-research principles. We highlight the implications for those who both commission and undertake research in order to tackle this problem. Summary: Answers to the complex problem of multi-morbidity won't come from doing more of the same. We need to change systems of care, and so the systems for generating evidence to support that care. This paper contributes to that work through outlining a process for generating practice-based evidence of generalist solutions to the complex problem of person-centred care for people with multi-morbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The design and implementation of new configurations of mental health services to meet local needs is a challenging problem. In the UK, services for common mental health disorders such as anxiety and depression are an example of a system running near or at capacity, in that it is extremely rare for the queue size for any given mode of treatment to fall to zero. In this paper we describe a mathematical model that can be applied in such circumstances. The model provides a simple way of estimating the mean and variance of the number of patients that would be treated within a given period of time given a particular configuration of services as defined by the number of appointments allocated to different modes of treatment and the referral patterns to and between different modes of treatment. The model has been used by service planners to explore the impact of different options on throughput, clinical outcomes, queue sizes, and waiting times. We also discuss the potential for using the model in conjunction with optimisation techniques to inform service design and its applicability to other contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: openair is an R package primarily developed for the analysis of air pollution measurement data but which is also of more general use in the atmospheric sciences. The package consists of many tools for importing and manipulating data, and undertaking a wide range of analyses to enhance understanding of air pollution data. In this paper we consider the development of the package with the purpose of showing how air pollution data can be analysed in more insightful ways. Examples are provided of importing data from UK air pollution networks, source identification and characterisation using bivariate polar plots, quantitative trend estimates and the use of functions for model evaluation purposes. We demonstrate how air pollution data can be analysed quickly and efficiently and in an interactive way, freeing time to consider the problem at hand. One of the central themes of openair is the use of conditioning plots and analyses, which greatly enhance inference possibilities. Finally, some consideration is given to future developments. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper considers how work psychologists define 'good' qualitative research in the work psychology domain. In addressing the assessment of quality in work psychology research, we draw on 22 in-depth interviews with work psychologists about their current practices and expectations around qualitative research. Using narrative analysis, the various plots and narratives that constitute how interviewees understand good qualitative research are identified. The implications of the use of these narratives for both how quality is understood and the use of qualitative research in this area are addressed. Drawing on Weick's concept of sensemaking as a theoretical framework, it is argued that the narratives identified enable the construction of a hegemonic understanding of what is good methodological practice within the work psychology discipline. The implications of this for the work psychology field and the methodological practices of work psychologists are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industry recognizes that the shift in European Union (EU) subsidies towards green power and the need to cut carbon emissions drives the need for innovative and energy efficient saving solutions. One such approach which is now attracting the attention of industry is Combined Heat and Power (CHP). In this paper, the authors set out proposed CHP opportunities for a model specific to the UK market. We utilise linear programming to develop our model. The main advantage of the model is its easy-to-use functionalities which serve as a way potential CHP users may assess its viability. The development of the model forms part of research work sponsored by Red Engineering Design, a specialist mechanical and electrical systems and design firm based in Oxford, United Kingdom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Ozone Source–Receptor Model (OSRM) is a Lagrangian trajectory model developed to describe photochemical ozone production in the UK. The OSRM builds on existing boundary layer trajectory models used previously for assisting the development of UK ozone policy, but has a number of notable differences. A novel feature of the OSRM is a surface conversion module to represent the vertical gradient in ozone arising from chemical loss and deposition to the surface. This has significantly improved the performance of the model, especially in urban areas. In this paper, the modelling system is described and its performance against measured ozone concentrations and metrics and other UK ozone models is discussed. The model has been used to calculate future ozone concentrations in the UK and thus to assess a number of possible control measures developed for the UK Air Quality Strategy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper deals with the identification of network configuration changes in distribution system state estimation (DSSE). The models of critical network configurations are stored in the form of a model bank. A recursive Bayesian approach which utilizes the output of the state estimation function of each model in the bank is used to identify the correct configuration of the network. The concept is demonstrated on a part of the U.K. Generic Distribution System (UKGDS) model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Optimal reactive power flow applications often model large numbers of discrete shunt devices as continuous variables, which are rounded to their nearest discrete value at the final iteration. This can degrade optimality. This paper presents novel methods based on probabilistic and adaptive threshold approaches that can extend existing security constrained optimal reactive power flow methods to effectively solve large-scale network problems involving discrete shunt devices. Loss reduction solutions from the proposed techniques were compared to solutions from the mixed integer nonlinear mathematical programming algorithm (MINLP) using modified IEEE standard networks up to 118 buses. The proposed techniques were also applied to practical large-scale network models of Great Britain. The results show that the proposed techniques can achieve improved loss minimization solutions when compared to the standard rounding method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Traditionally, researchers have employed statistical methods to model crime. However, these approaches are limited by being unable to model individual actions and behaviour. Brantingham and Brantingham (1993) described that in their opinion a useful and productive model for simulating crime would have the ability to model the occurrence of crime and the motivations behind it both temporally and spatially. This paper presents the construction and application of an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating occurrences of residential burglary at an individual level. It presents a novel framework that allows both human and environmental factors to be simulated. Although other agent-based models of crime do exist, this research represents the first working example of integrating a behavioural framework into an ABM for the simulation of crime. An artificial city, loosely based on the real city of Leeds, UK, and an artificial population were constructed, and experiments were run to explore the potential of the model to realistically simulate the main processes and drivers within this system. The results are highly promising, demonstrating the potential of this approach for both understanding processes behind crime and improving policies and developing effective crime prevention strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The concept of the water footprint has been recently introduced as an important indicator for human-induced water consumption. The water footprint is defined as the total volume of water used during production and consumption of goods and services as well as direct water consumption by humans. Water is not only consumed directly but also indirectly in production processes. Therefore, calculating the water footprint enables us to quantify total water consumed along the whole global supply chain. In this paper, we develop a regional input–output (IO) model extended by water consumption coefficients to quantify the respective domestic water footprint for different consumption categories for the South-East and North-East of England and the UK, i.e. the water consumed directly and indirectly along the regional supply chain. In addition, we calculate the total water footprints which include both domestic water consumption and the water required in other countries to produce goods and services imported and consumed in the region under investigation through applying a multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model. Both footprints also include households'' direct consumption of water. With regards to the two regions, we can observe a very pronounced regional disparity of regional (domestic and total) water footprints between the relatively water-scarce South-East and the water-rich North-East of England. We find that the domestic water footprint per capita in the South-East is 22% higher than the domestic water footprint per capita in the North-East. The key water consumers include Agriculture, Food Products, Electricity and Gas Production, and Hotel and Catering. The total water footprints per capita in the South-East (1257m3/year) are more than twice the ones in the North-East (597m3/year). The domestic water footprint focuses only on the supply chain effects and associated water consumption within the regional boundaries, which are usually of higher interest to policy makers and water companies concerned with the balance of supply and demand of water resources within their respective administrative boundaries or watersheds. The total water footprint allows assessing global effects and supports global supply chain management and is also introducing notions of fairness and equity in terms of resource consumption. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper the meteorological processes responsible for transporting tracer during the second ETEX (European Tracer EXperiment) release are determined using the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). The UM predicted distribution of tracer is also compared with observations from the ETEX campaign. The dominant meteorological process is a warm conveyor belt which transports large amounts of tracer away from the surface up to a height of 4 km over a 36 h period. Convection is also an important process, transporting tracer to heights of up to 8 km. Potential sources of error when using an operational numerical weather prediction model to forecast air quality are also investigated. These potential sources of error include model dynamics, model resolution and model physics. In the UM a semi-Lagrangian monotonic advection scheme is used with cubic polynomial interpolation. This can predict unrealistic negative values of tracer which are subsequently set to zero, and hence results in an overprediction of tracer concentrations. In order to conserve mass in the UM tracer simulations it was necessary to include a flux corrected transport method. Model resolution can also affect the accuracy of predicted tracer distributions. Low resolution simulations (50 km grid length) were unable to resolve a change in wind direction observed during ETEX 2, this led to an error in the transport direction and hence an error in tracer distribution. High resolution simulations (12 km grid length) captured the change in wind direction and hence produced a tracer distribution that compared better with the observations. The representation of convective mixing was found to have a large effect on the vertical transport of tracer. Turning off the convective mixing parameterisation in the UM significantly reduced the vertical transport of tracer. Finally, air quality forecasts were found to be sensitive to the timing of synoptic scale features. Errors in the position of the cold front relative to the tracer release location of only 1 h resulted in changes in the predicted tracer concentrations that were of the same order of magnitude as the absolute tracer concentrations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: In the event of a release of a pathogen such as smallpox, which is human-to-human transmissible and has high associated mortality, a key question is how best to deploy containment and control strategies. Given the general uncertainty surrounding this issue, mathematical modelling has played an important role in informing the likely optimal response, in particular defining the conditions under which mass-vaccination would be appropriate. In this paper, we consider two key questions currently unanswered in the literature: firstly, what is the optimal spatial scale for intervention; and secondly, how sensitive are results to the modelling assumptions made about the pattern of human contacts? Methods: Here we develop a novel mathematical model for smallpox that incorporates both information on individual contact structure (which is important if the effects of contact tracing are to be captured accurately) and large-scale patterns of movement across a range of spatial scales in Great Britain. Results: Analysis of this model confirms previous work suggesting that a locally targeted 'ring' vaccination strategy is optimal, and that this conclusion is actually quite robust for different socio-demographic and epidemiological assumptions. Conclusions: Our method allows for intuitive understanding of the reasons why national mass vaccination is typically predicted to be suboptimal. As such, we present a general framework for fast calculation of expected outcomes during the attempted control of diverse emerging infections; this is particularly important given that parameters would need to be interactively estimated and modelled in any release scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports on the development of a model for assessing transitions to sustainable mobility. The model uses the concepts of transition theory as a framework for assessing possible pathways by which a transition to a sustainable mobility society might happen. The modelling approach combines agent-based modelling techniques with a system dynamics structure. It is original in that there are two levels of agent. There are a small number of complex agents, which have an internal structure and are therefore subsystems within society, and a larger number of simple agents. Based on the UK data, the results show that Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) come to dominate, but only in the very long run (after 2030), while biofuels and ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)-electric hybrids are the main alternatives to the regime in the next 10–30 years, because a) they are already developed and b) they fit better into current infrastructures. The model shows that technological transitions are most likely. Lifestyle change transitions require sustained pressure from the environment on society and behavioural change from consumers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The UK government’s economy-wide 60% carbon dioxide reduction target by 2050 requires a paradigm shift in the whole energy system. Numerous analytical studies have concluded that the power sector is a critical contributor to a low carbon energy system, and electricity generation has dominated the policy discussion on UK decarbonisation scenarios. However, range of technical, social and market challenges, combined with alternate market investment strategies mean that large scale deployment of key classes of low carbon electricity technologies is fraught with uncertainty. The UK MARKAL energy systems model has been used to investigate these long-term uncertainties in key electricity generation options. A range of power sector specific parametric sensitivities have been performed under a ‘what-if’ framework to provide a systematic exploration of least-cost energy system configurations under a broad, integrated set of input assumptions. In this paper results of six sensitivities, via restricted investments in key low carbon technologies to reflect their technical and political uncertainties, and an alternate investment strategies from perceived risk and other barriers, have been presented. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Environmental change caused by urban development, possibly augmented by climate change, may result in accelerated decay of in situ archaeological resources. Damage may be related to changes in hydrological processes. Such archaeological resources have to be considered in environmental planning. In this paper we highlight the need for improved hydrological data from urban archaeological sites using the case study of the City of York, UK, arguably one of the most well studied and well preserved urban archaeological environments globally. We suggest that the quality of hydrological data collected during routine surveys and experimental work must be improved and standardised in order for us to produce reliable archaeological risk models for urban sites. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper applies the event analysis for systemic teamwork (EAST) method to an example of military command and control. EAST offers a way to describe system level emergent properties that arise from the complex interactions of system components (human and technical). These are described using an integrated methods approach and modelled using Task, Social and Propositional networks. The current article is divided into three parts: a brief description of the military command and control context, a brief description of the EAST method, and a more in depth presentation of the analysis outcomes. The emergent properties of the military scenario relate to the degree of system reconfigurability, systems level situational awareness and the role of mediating technology. The findings are compared with similar analyses undertaken in civilian domains, in which the latest developments in command and control, under the aegis of Network Enabled Capability (NEC), are already in place. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Domestic hot water (DHW) in the UK accounts for ∼7.5% of all energy use. For manufacturers of heating and hot water appliances to be in a position to respond to patterns of demand a full understanding of the effect of user-defined DHW profiles, different DHW systems and heating technologies are essential. This paper presents the prediction of the temperature characteristics of drawn DHW using artificial neural networks (NNs). We demonstrate whether, based on one NN model, different hot water system temperature loads can be accurately predicted. Two NN models were constructed and examined on a total of three systems. Both models trained on their associated systems produced errors of <11%; however, both NN models, when presented with unseen systems, produced large single errors. NN model 2 gave the lowest error when compared with NN model 1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a socio-economically disaggregated framework for attributing CO2 emissions to people's high level functional needs. Based around a quasi-multi-regional input–output (QMRIO) model, the study, in theory, takes into account all CO2 emissions that arise from energy used in production of goods and services to satisfy UK household demand, whether the emissions occur in the UK or abroad. Results show that CO2 emissions attributable to households were 15% above 1990 levels in 2004, and that although absolute decoupling occurred between household expenditure and CO2 during the UK's switch from coal to gas in the early 1990s, since then only slight relative decoupling is evident. The proportion of CO2 that arises outside UK borders in support of UK consumption is rising, and reducing these emissions is particularly problematic in a global trading system. Investigation into the carbon footprint of different segments of the UK population shows wide variation: the segment with the highest carbon footprint emits 64% more CO2 than the segment with the lowest. Results show that recreation and leisure are responsible for over one quarter of CO2 emissions in a typical UK household in 2004. We conclude that expanding lifestyle aspirations are significant factors in driving household CO2 emissions, but the study also emphasizes that attention must be paid to the infrastructures and institutions that result in considerable amounts of CO2 being locked up in basic household activities through which people meet their everyday needs for subsistence, protection, and communication with family and friends. The findings highlight the sheer scale of the challenge facing UK policy-makers, and suggest that policies should be targeted towards segments of society responsible for the highest carbon footprints. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

CORINAIR atmospheric emission inventories are frequently used input data for air quality models with a domain situated in Europe. In CORINAIR emission inventories, sources are broken down over 11 major source categories. This paper presents spatial surrogates for the disaggregation of CORINAIR atmospheric emission inventories for input of air pollutants and particulate matter to grid or polygon based air quality model domains inside Europe. The basis for the disaggregation model was the CLC2000 land cover data to which statistical weights were added. Weights were population census data for residential emissions, employment statistics for agricultural and industrial area emissions, livestock statistics for ammonia emissions and annual aircraft movements for emissions realized by air transport. Additional road and off-road network information was used to disaggregate emissions realized by traffic. A comparison of top down produced emission estimates with spatially resolved national emission data for The Netherlands and the United Kingdom gave confidence in the present spatial surrogates as a tool for the top down production of atmospheric emission maps. Explained variance at a spatial resolution of 5km was >70% for CO, NMVOC and NO x , >60% for PM10 and almost 50% for SO2. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Capacity building is commonly considered to be a fundamental prerequisite to successful integrated coastal management (ICM). Capacity building for ICM is an educational process, in which skills and knowledge are taught, learned and then applied, within a coastal management process. Previous research into ICM capacity building has tended to focus upon identifying the skills and knowledge required for effective ICM rather than the pedagogic elements of capacity building; that is, how the effectiveness of learning can be improved. This paper reports on a study that focuses on establishing the favoured learning style of students studying ICM in UK universities in order to consider more generally the role of pedagogy in ICM. Kolb's Learning Styles Inventory, a widely used generic learning styles test, was used to establish preferred learning styles. The results showed that ICM learners exhibited a complete range of learning styles, but that 47% were classified as ‘convergers’, who prefer to learn through practice and consider the teacher to be a facilitator and role model rather than knowledge giver. It is concluded that ICM capacity building leaders should consider pedagogic issues more fully in the design and delivery of capacity-building activities and that a specific pedagogy of ICM is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The present paper investigates the cyclical nature of Consumer Sentiments Indices (CSIs) for the US and UK. Using Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models the empirical analysis indicates that the US CSI is mean reverting but adjusts asymmetrically and downwardly rigid. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

US and British forces used depleted uranium (DU) in armor-piercing rounds to disable enemy tanks during the Gulf and Balkan Wars. Uranium particulate is generated by DU shell impact and particulate entrained in air may be inhaled or ingested by troops and nearby civilian populations. As uranium is slightly radioactive and chemically toxic, a number of critics have asserted that DU exposure has resulted in a variety of adverse health effects for exposed veterans and nearby civilian populations. The study described in this paper used mathematical modeling to estimate health risks from exposure to DU during the 1991 Gulf War for both US troops and nearby Iraqi civilians. The analysis found that the risks of DU-induced leukemia or birth defects are far too small to result in an observable increase in these health effects among exposed veterans or Iraqi civilians. The analysis indicated that only a few (∼5) US veterans in vehicles accidentally targeted by US tanks received significant exposure levels, resulting in about a 1.4% lifetime risk of DU radiation-induced fatal cancer (compared with about a 24% risk of a fatal cancer from all other causes). These veterans may have also experienced temporary kidney damage. Iraqi children playing for 500 h in DU-destroyed vehicles are predicted to incur a cancer risk of about 0.4%. In vitro and animal tests suggest the possibility of chemically induced health effects from DU internalization, such as immune system impairment. Further study is needed to determine the applicability of these findings for Gulf War exposure to DU. Veterans and civilians who did not occupy DU-contaminated vehicles are unlikely to have internalized quantities of DU significantly in excess of normal internalization of natural uranium from the environment.Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology (2008) 18, 95–108; doi:10.1038/sj.jes.7500551; published online 14 February 2007 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1970s Britain has gone from being a country of net emigration to one of net immigration, with a trend increase in immigration of more than 100,000 per year. This paper represents the first attempt to model the variations in net migration for British and for foreign citizens, across countries and over time. A simple economic model, which includes the selection effects of differing income distributions at home and abroad, largely accounts for the variations in the data. The results suggest that although improved economic performance in the UK relative to overseas has tended to increase immigration, rising UK inequality has had an even larger effect. Immigration policies at home and abroad have also increased net immigration, particularly in the 1990s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]