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This paper investigates how dividend taxes influence portfolio choices, using the response to the distinctive treatment of a subset of foreign dividends in the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (JGTRRA) of 2003. An open-economy after-tax capital asset pricing model is used to derive the hypothesis that JGTRRA should lead to a portfolio reallocation by U.S. investors toward equities in tax-favored countries. A difference-in-difference analysis that compares U.S. equity holdings in affected and unaffected countries finds a substantial portfolio reallocation toward the former. This effect cannot be explained by several potential alternative hypotheses, including differential changes to the preferences of American investors, differential changes in investment opportunities, differential time trends in investment, changed tax evasion behavior, or changes in stock prices associated (or contemporaneous) with JGTRRA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper offers the first empirical analysis of the impact of adaptation on the boundary of multinational firms. To do so, we develop a ranking of sectors in terms of "routineness" by merging two sets of data: ratings of occupations by their intensities in solving problems from the U.S. Department of Labor's Occupational Information Network and U.S. employment shares of occupations by sectors from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics. Using U.S. Census trade data, we demonstrate that the share of intrafirm trade tends to be higher in less routine sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the extent to which Mexican emigrants to the United States are negatively selected. Previous studies have been limited by the lack of nationally representative longitudinal data. This one uses a newly available household survey, that identifies emigrants before they leave. On average, U.S.-bound Mexican emigrants from 2000 to 2004 earn lower wages and have less (more for females) schooling than nonmigrant Mexicans, evidence of negative selection. This argues against Chiquiar and Hanson's (2005) findings. The discrepancy is primarily due to an undercount of unskilled migrants in U.S. sources and secondarily to the omission of unobservables in their methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a new framework in calculating the ex post prices for the spot electricity market. The proposed method finds a set of prices that are as consistent as possible with the actual outputs of resources correctly following their dispatch instructions. Two alternative consistency metrics are proposed in the paper. One measures the difference between the actual performance of an individual resource and its bid-based profit-maximizing response to the ex post prices in a perfectly competitive market. Another measures the difference between the ex post price and the price that supports the actual response of an individual resource. Compared to the existing approaches adopted in the real-time electricity markets in the U.S., the proposed method solves the ex post energy and ancillary service prices directly and simultaneously. It does not require heuristics that are hard to justify, and has a much clear definition for the pricing problem than the existing approaches do. Moreover, the proposed approach is flexible in the price control required by the market operators. Numerical examples are presented to further demonstrate the validity of this approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops tests for the null hypothesis of cointegration in the nonlinear regression model with I (1) variables. The test statistics we use in this paper are Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin's (1992; KPSS hereafter) tests for the null of stationarity, though using other kinds of tests is also possible. The tests are shown to depend on the limiting distributions of the estimators and parameters of the nonlinear model when they use full-sample residuals from the nonlinear least squares and nonlinear leads-and-lags regressions. This feature makes it difficult to use them in practice. As a remedy, this paper develops tests using subsamples of the regression residuals. For these tests, first, the nonlinear least squares and nonlinear leadsand- lags regressions are run and residuals are calculated. Second, the KPSS tests are applied using subresiduals of size b. As long as b/T → 0 as T → ∞, where T is the sample size, the tests using the subresiduals have limiting distributions that are not affected by the limiting distributions of the full-sample estimators and the parameters of the model. Third, the Bonferroni procedure is used for a selected number of the subresidual-based tests. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the tests work reasonably well in finite samples for polynomial and smooth transition regression models when the block size is chosen by the minimum volatility rule. In particular, the subresidual-based tests using the leads-and-lags regression residuals appear to be promising for empirical work. An empirical example studying the U.S. money demand equation illustrates the use of the tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The U.S. dollar is the central reference currency for international trade pricing and the main invoicing currency for primary commodities. This paper links these two observations within a stylized theoretical framework, and shows how to obtain a quantitative estimate of the gain to the U.S. economy when the dollar is a reference currency. With dollar invoicing of primary commodities, U.S. firms bear less exchange rate risk than foreign firms. This asymmetry leads to a dollar standard in international goods pricing. We then derive a simple analytical formula to calculate the gains and find that they are extremely small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the causal relationship between highway infrastructure and employment within the U.S. We estimate dynamic panel models in a vector autoregressive framework using time-series cross-sectional data on lane miles of roadway capacity and private sector employment for the 48 contiguous states over the period 1984–1997. The issue of spatial dependence is explicitly taken into account by means of a spatial filtering technique. Our analysis reveals evidence of employment growth temporally influenced by annual growth in the provision of major highways within the same state and all other states, as well as the other way around. However, the results show that the existence and direction of these temporal and spatial effects depend on the type of highways and time lags considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the economic models for monetary policymaking in the U.S. It has been suggested that monetary policy in most countries and periods is best modeled as an interest rate. In probability models, models are presented with coefficients estimated from data and with standard errors of the estimates. The Federal Reserve Board's FRBUS model applies a standard single-equation specification to many variables that assumes no within quarter interactions among variables. The Bayesian approach to interference recognizes the need for what has to go on daily in data analysis for policymaking.

In Part I of this paper, we presented a large-scale airspace-planning and collaborative decision-making (APCDM) model that is part of a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)-sponsored effort to enhance the management of the National Airspace System (NAS). Given a set of flights that must be scheduled during some planning horizon, along with alternative surrogate trajectories for each flight, we developed a mixed-integer programming model to select a set of flight plans from among these alternatives, subject to flight safety, airtraffic control workload, and airline equity considerations. The present paper offers insights related to, and a detailed description of, implementing this APCDM model, including the development of a comprehensive cost model, a study for prescribing a set of appropriate parameter values for the overall model, and an investigation on incorporating a suitable set of valid inequalities in the model formulation. Computational results are presented based on several test cases derived from the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS) data provided by the FAA. The results indicate that under plausible probabilistic trajectory error assumptions and with the incorporation of star subgraph convex hull-based valid inequalities, the model offers a viable tool that can be used by the FAA for both tactical and strategic applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses two seeming paradoxes in the realm of employer-provided health insurance: First, businesses consistently claim that they bear the burden of the insurance they provide for employees, despite theory and empirical evidence indicating that workers bear the full incidence. Second, benefit generosity and the percentage of premiums paid by employers have decreased in recent decades, despite the preferential tax treatment of employer-paid benefits relative to wages-trends unexplained by the standard incidence model. This paper offers a revised incidence model based on nominal wage rigidity, in an attempt to explain these paradoxes. The model predicts that when the nominal wage constraint binds, some of the burden of increasing insurance premiums will fall on firms, particularly small companies with low-wage employees. In response, firms will reduce employment, decrease benefit generosity, and require larger employee premium contributions. Using Current Population Survey data from 2000-2001, I find evidence for this kind of wage rigidity and its associated impact on the employment and premium contributions of low-wage insured workers during a period of rapid premium growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate consumption-wealth ratio for predicting stock returns. Using U.S. quarterly stock market data, we find that these fluctuations in the consumption-wealth ratio are strong predictors of both real stock returns and excess returns over a Treasury bill rate. We also find that this variable is a better forecaster of future returns at short and intermediate horizons than is the dividend yield, the dividend payout ratio, and several other popular forecasting variables. Why should the consumption-wealth ratio forecast asset returns? We show that a wide class of optimal models of consumer behavior imply that the log consumption-aggregate wealth (human capital plus asset holdings) ratio summarizes expected returns on aggregate wealth, or the market portfolio. Although this ratio is not observable, we provide assumptions under which its important predictive components for future asset returns may be expressed in terms of observable variables, namely in terms of consumption, asset holdings and labor income. The framework implies that these variables are cointegrated, and that deviations from this shared trend summarize agents' expectations of future returns on the market portfolio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Drawing on prospective data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), our goal was to construct and validate a 5-year survival prediction model for individuals with cognitive impairment (CI). Methods: This study entailed a prospective cohort design utilizing information from the 2011-2014 NHANES dataset, encompassing individuals aged 40 years or older, with updated mortality status as of December 31, 2019. Predictive models within the derivation and validation cohorts were assessed using logistic proportional risk regression, column-line plots, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) binomial regression models. Results: The study enrolled a total of 1,439 participants (677 men, mean age 69.75 ± 6.71 years), with the derivation and validation cohorts consisting of 1,007 (538 men) and 432 (239 men) individuals, respectively. The 5-year mortality rate stood at 16.12% (n = 232). We devised a 5-item column-line graphical model incorporating age, race, stroke, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN). The model exhibited an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.772 with satisfactory calibration. Internal validation demonstrated that the column-line graph model displayed strong discrimination, yielding an AUC of 0.733, and exhibited good calibration. Conclusion: To sum up, our study successfully developed and internally validated a 5-item nomogram integrating age, race, stroke, cardiovascular disease, and blood urea nitrogen. This nomogram exhibited robust predictive performance for 5-year mortality in individuals with CI, offering a valuable tool for prognostic evaluation and personalized care planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The central concept of microeconomic theories of fertility is opportunity cost--the product of wife's employment lost due to childbearing and the value of her employment. This paper presents a model for analyzing opportunity cost using panel data. The average loss of employment attributable to a second- or higher-order birth, calculated at around age 2, is over 400 hours per year. This time cost represents an income loss of about $1050 in 1969 dollars. Time cost is independent of such demographic factors as birth order and age of oldest sibling. Neither does time cost depend on husband's wage rate or wife's education or potential wage rate. This indicates that many microeconomic models of fertility have been seriously misspecified. The paper also compares results from static and dynamic models, explores possible problems due to simultaneity bias, investigates the relationship between changes in employment (including time cost) and initial employment level, and identifies the difficulties of theorizing about opportunity cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reports on an effort to integrate symbolic and mathematical models to tailor the output of a mathematical model to the particular domain of a decision maker. AESOP combines the Black-Scholes model of stock options pricing with an expert system; the integrated model is designed for use by an options specialist on the American Stock Exchange. The specialist makes a number of adjustments to the output of the mathematical model; the purpose of the symbolic mode! is to make as many of these modifications as possible automatically. The paper reports on the development and structure of AESOP and presents data on its use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Ciencias de la Salud is the property of Colegio Mayor de Nuestra Senora del Rosario and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article discusses the increasing importance of water data amid the spike in water demand and variability of water availability. Topics discussed include the definition of water data, as well as its five general categories, the features that should be present in the greater integration of water data and the issues associated with the use of water data, as well as its collection.

The paper investigates the system efficiency for power distribution in residential localities considering daily load variations. Relevant system modeling is presented. A mathematical model is devised, which is based on the data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), USA, for analysis. The results reveal that the DC distribution system can present an equivalent or even better efficiency compared to the AC distribution network with an efficiency advantage of 2.3%, averaged over a day. Furthermore, the distribution systems are compared under various capacities of solar PV accounting for the effect of variation in solar irradiation over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a disease of unknown etiology, and life expectancy of 3-5 years after diagnosis. The incidence rate in the United States is estimated as high as 15 per 100,000 persons per year. The disease is characterized by repeated injury to the alveolar epithelium, resulting in inflammation and deregulated repair, leading to scarring of the lung tissue, resulting in progressive dyspnea and hypoxemia. The disease has no cure, although new drugs are in clinical trials and two agents have been approved for use by the FDA. In the present paper we develop a mathematical model based on the interactions among cells and proteins that are involved in the progression of the disease. The model simulations are shown to be in agreement with available lung tissue data of human patients. The model can be used to explore the efficacy of potential drugs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with formulating, exploring and interpreting the uses and constructs which may be derived from a mathematical model of programming type which expresses more realistically than past efforts the actual conditions of current operations. It is an attempt to provide a means of attaining thereby an objective understanding of the implications of actual Federal Reserve liquidity policy on the actions and opportunities of banking institutions. The model presented corresponds to the problem of determining an optimal portfolio for an individual bank over several time periods in accordance with requirements laid down by bank examiners which are interpreted as defining limits within which the level of risk associated with the return on the portfolio is an acceptable one. The problem is transformed into an equivalent one offering advantages of analysis and of computation. Some methods of effective computation are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Perinatal mental health problems, experienced by 15-20% of women, are a significant public health issue associated with adverse effects among childbearing women; yet only 20-25% receive adequate treatment. There has been a recent proliferation of intensive perinatal day treatment programs in the United States. To meet this need in the greater Philadelphia area, we introduce Mother Baby Connections (MBC), an innovative interdisciplinary, attachment-focused, intensive, outpatient perinatal mental health program recently launched at Drexel University. The purpose of this paper is to (1) present an overview of MBC, its theoretical framework for services, and its evidence-based components, highlighting the unique factors that differentiate this program from traditional outpatient treatment, and (2) present clinical outcome data utilizing scores from reliable and valid scales, including enrollment to discharge outcomes from 20 months of MBC operation. In sum, outcomes for 20 predominantly minority women with complete measures showed significant improvements in maternal depression symptom severity, maternal functioning, birth trauma symptoms, perceived stress, parenting stress, and emotional regulation. Effect sizes were medium to large (i.e., 0.42-2.00). We conclude that MBC is a viable model for tailored intensive outpatient treatment to foster maternal mental health and functioning during the perinatal period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of dividend distribution decrease announcements on the security prices of master limited partnerships. (MLPs). These firms, whose earnings are not subject to U.S. Federal Income Tax are marketed stressing high dividend yields. Since most MLPs are natural resource firms with only one line of business, cuts in dividend policy by one firm caused by industry-wide factors might impact the market's pricing of similar firms. Therefore, tests of announcement effects are performed not only on the firm itself but also on a portfolio of related firms. Although the announcements were found to be associated with significant unit price reactions for the MLP making the announcement, the price reaction for similar firms was small, indicating only weak support for intraindustry information transfers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author comments on the paper "Alternative Monies and the Demand for Media of Exchange," by Anthony M. Santomero and John J. Seater, published in the November 2, 1996 issue of "The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking." He states that the researchers created a mathematical model with a narrow microbanking focus that examined the willingness of consumers to substitute electronic money for traditional paper-based money, and asks how the model can be used to illuminate the problem of persuading households to utilize electronic banking to a greater degree. He mentions that while Europe has adopted a smart card system quicker than the U.S., banks in the U.S. are significantly ahead in networking communications across offices, in using decision software, and in branch automation.

In the linear model of this paper the problem choosing an optimal target strategy is substantive if and only if there is a cost constraint in estimating the stochastic errors of the structural hypotheses. In addition it is proposed that if the Federal Reserve disavows its preference for attaining desired targets independent of the effect on the goal variable stabilization policy could improve. Finally, while less general models than the present one are in order, the paper suggests that both empirical work on the target problem [19] as well as stochastic models which outline rules for selecting a target-variable [13, 17, 18] must not ignore the lags of monetary policy, the forecasting problem, the information acquisition constraints and their interrelationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first section of the paper is a general methodological discussion of financial model building. It begins with a brief description of the framework of financial sectors of recent econometric models and argues that the principal weakness of existing models cannot be rectified within their present structure. What is required is the specification and estimation of all security supply and demand functions. A five-security, five-sector model of the United States flow-of-funds accounts is then outlined. The principal advantage of the sectoral approach is that it allows for the operation of "preferred habitats." in the second section of the paper, two constraints on the coefficients in financial-asset demand equations are noted and means of enforcing them in the estimation procedure are discussed. The constraints are those implied by the balance sheet identity and by symmetry conditions of consumer demand theory. The balance sheet constraint implies that the Sum, across assets, of the partial derivatives of financial-asset demand with respect to total financial assets is unity and that the sum of the partials With respect to all other variables is zero. Symmetry conditions require that the partial derivative of the demand for any asset with respect to the yield on an alternative asset be equal to the derivative of the demand for the alternative asset with respect to the first yield. A further property implied by the balance sheet constraint and symmetry conditions is that the partial derivatives of an asset with respect to all yields on assets sum to zero. Equations explaining financial-asset demand by the nonbank finance sector are reported in the third section to illustrate the method and effect of imposing the constraints. The principal general effect is that the final estimates are theoretically pleasing; they satisfy the balance sheet and symmetry conditions and all have the appropiate signs. The estimates suggest significant substitution between money and short-term securities and between short-term securities and the bond-equity aggregate. There also may be substitution between bond-equities and residential mortgages. Probably the most interesting empirical finding is that portfolio adjustment by nonbank financial institutions is relatively rapid, being completed within a year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Qualitative research methods are based on the analysis of words rather than numbers; they encourage self-reflection on the investigator's part; they are attuned to social interaction and nuance; and they incorporate their subjects' thoughts and feelings as primary sources. Despite appearing well suited for research in child and adolescent psychiatry (CAP), qualitative methods have had relatively minor uptake in the discipline. We conducted a qualitative study of CAPs involved in qualitative research to learn about these investigators' lived experiences, and to identify modifiable factors to promote qualitative methods within the field of youth mental health. Methods: We conducted individual, semi-structured 1-h long interviews through Zoom. Using purposive sample, we selected 23 participants drawn from the US (n = 12) and from France (n = 11), and equally divided in each country across seniority level. All participants were current or aspiring CAPs and had published at least one peer-reviewed qualitative article. Ten participants were women (44%). We recorded all interviews digitally and transcribed them for analysis. We coded the transcripts according to the principles of thematic analysis and approached data analysis, interpretation, and conceptualization informed by an interpersonal phenomenological analysis (IPA) framework. Results: Through iterative thematic analysis we developed a conceptual model consisting of three domains: (1) Becoming a qualitativist: embracing a different way of knowing (in turn divided into the three themes of priming factors/personal fit; discovering qualitative research; and transitioning in); (2) Being a qualitativist: immersing oneself in a different kind of research (in turn divided into quality: doing qualitative research well; and community: mentors, mentees, and teams); and (3) Nurturing: toward a higher quality future in CAP (in turn divided into current state of qualitative methods in CAP; and advocating for qualitative methods in CAP). For each domain, we go on to propose specific strategies to enhance entry into qualitative careers and research in CAP: (1) Becoming: personalizing the investigator's research focus; balancing inward and outward views; and leveraging practical advantages; (2) Being: seeking epistemological flexibility; moving beyond bibliometrics; and the potential and risks of mixing methods; and (3) Nurturing: invigorating a quality pipeline; and building communities. Conclusions: We have identified factors that can support or impede entry into qualitative research among CAPs. Based on these modifiable findings, we propose possible solutions to enhance entry into qualitative methods in CAP (pathways), and to foster longer-term commitment to this type of research (identity). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents a systematic shift in the nature of innovation in information technology (IT) toward increasing dependence on software. Using a broad panel of U.S. and Japanese publicly listed IT firms in the period 1983 to 2004, we show that this change in the nature of IT innovation had differential effects on the performance of the IT industries in the United States and Japan, resulting in U.S. firms increasingly outperforming their Japanese counterparts, particularly in more software-intensive sectors. We provide suggestive evidence that human resource constraints played a role in preventing Japanese firms from adapting to the documented shift in IT innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the dynamic effects of changes in taxes in the United States. We distinguish between changes in personal and corporate income taxes and develop a new narrative account of federal tax liability changes in these two tax components. We develop an estimator which uses narratively identified tax changes as proxies for structural tax shocks and apply it to quarterly post-WWII data. We find that short run output effects of tax shocks are large and that it is important to distinguish between different types of taxes when considering their impact on the labor market and on expenditure components. (JEL E23, E62, H24, H25, H31, H32) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, there have been advances in the development of multidimensional poverty measures. Work is needed however on how to implement such measures. This paper deals with the process of selecting dimensions and setting weights in multidimensional poverty measurement using qualitative and quantitative methods in a participatory framework. We estimate the multidimensional poverty measures developed by Alkire and Foster for a particular group: persons with psychiatric diagnoses in the United States. To select relevant dimensions and their relative ordering, two discussion groups are convened: one consisting of persons with lived-experience expertise and the other consisting of people with mental health service provision or research expertise. Several methods are used to convert dimension rankings into weights. The selection and ordering of dimensions differed between the two discussion groups, as did the resulting poverty measures. For instance, the poverty headcount using the dimensions and weights of the 'lived experience' group ranged from 20.61 to 26.96% as compared to a range of 18.62-33.19% using those of the 'provider/researcher' group. One of the main results of this study is that the Alkire Foster method is sensitive to the selection of dimensions and the methods used to derive rankings and weights. It points toward the limitation of relying exclusively on small scale qualitative methods for the selection and ranking of dimensions. In addition, the participatory framework used in this study was found to be essential in interpreting results, in particular with respect to the limitations of the data set in measuring relevant dimensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper compares the quality of real-time forecasts from a standard medium-scale New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to those from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and DSGE-VARs. It is shown that the DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the U.S. economy. This is especially true for forecasts conditional on SPF nowcasts, in which case the forecasting power of the DSGE turns out to be similar or better than that of the SPF for all the variables and horizons. An important weakness of the benchmark DSGE model is the poor absolute performance of its point forecasts and rather badly calibrated forecast densities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews alternative options for monetary policy when the short-term interest rate is at the zero lower bound and develops new empirical estimates of the effects of the maturity structure of publicly held debt on the term structure of interest rates. We use a model of risk-averse arbitrageurs to develop measures of how the maturity structure of debt held by the public might affect the pricing of level, slope, and curvature term structure risk. We find that these Treasury factors historically were quite helpful for predicting both yields and excess returns over 1990-2007. The historical correlations are consistent with the claim that if in December 2006, the Fed were to have sold off all its Treasury holdings of less than 1-year maturity (about $400 billion) and use the proceeds to retire Treasury debt from the long end, this might have resulted in a 14-basis-point drop in the 10-year rate and an 11-basis-point increase in the 6-month rate. We also develop a description of how the dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates changed after hitting the zero lower bound in 2009. Our estimates imply that at the zero lower bound, such a maturity swap would have the same effects as buying $400 billion in long-term maturities outright with newly created reserves and could reduce the 10-year rate by 13 basis points without raising short-term yields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The business cycle is a fundamental yet elusive concept in macroeconomics. In this paper, we consider the problem of measuring the business cycle. First, we argue for the output-gap view that the business cycle corresponds to transitory deviations in economic activity away from a permanent, or trend, level. Then we investigate the extent to which a general model-based approach to estimating trend and cycle for the U.S. economy leads to measures of the business cycle that reflect models versus the data. We find empirical support for a nonlinear time series model that produces a business cycle measure with an asymmetric shape across NBER expansion and recession phases. Specifically, this business cycle measure suggests that recessions are periods of relatively large and negative transitory fluctuations in output. However, several close competitors to the nonlinear model produce business cycle measures of widely differing shapes and magnitudes. Given this model-based uncertainty, we construct a model-averaged measure of the business cycle. This measure also displays an asymmetric shape and is closely related to other measures of economic slack such as the unemployment rate and capacity utilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing research has uncovered little evidence against the hypothesis of US crime rates being unit root processes, despite the uncomfortable implications of this assumption. In light of this, the present paper draws upon noted changes in the temporal patterns of US crime rates since 1960 to undertake an informed approach to testing of the unit root hypothesis which incorporates two potential points of structural change. The results obtained show the unit root hypothesis to be rejected for all classifications of criminal activity examined over the period 1960 to 2007. In addition, the dates of the detected breakpoints are supported by a variety of arguments available in the existing criminology literature concerning alternative determinants of crime and their movements. Interestingly, a difference is observed in the nature of the breaks detected for violent and property crimes. However, potential explanations for this are again found in theoretical arguments available in the criminology literature. Finally, the implications of the current findings for the properties of crime, its subsequent statistical analysis and past and future research are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses disaggregate U.S. inflation data to evaluate explanations for the breakdown of the relationship between oil price shocks and consumer price inflation. A data set with measures of inflation, energy intensity, labor intensity, and sensitivity to monetary policy is constructed for 97 sectors that make up core CPI inflation. A comparison of the 1973-85 and 1986-2006 time periods reveals that substitution away from energy use in production and monetary policy were both important, with approximately two-thirds of the change in response of inflation to oil shocks being due to reduced energy usage, and one-third to monetary policy. We find no evidence that other factors, such as changes in wage rigidities or changes in the persistence of oil shocks, played a role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relief provided by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC), a New Deal program that purchased and refinanced over 1 million distressed residential mortgages. I document that the HOLC paid relatively high prices for its mortgages, most likely in an effort to encourage lender participation and stimulate the housing market. The consequence was that lenders were able to remove poorly performing assets from their balance sheets at attractive prices. While this meant the HOLC's ability to seek principal reductions was somewhat limited, borrowers still received significant relief through the terms of the HOLC's more modern and forgiving mortgage contracts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the importance of monetary and fiscal policy shocks in explaining U.S. macroeconomic fluctuations, and establishes new stylized facts. The novelty of our empirical analysis is that we jointly consider both monetary and fiscal policy, whereas the existing literature only focuses on either one or the other. Our main findings are twofold: fiscal shocks are relatively more important in explaining medium cycle fluctuations whereas monetary policy shocks are relatively more important in explaining business cycle fluctuations, and failing to recognize that both monetary and fiscal policy simultaneously affect macroeconomic variables might incorrectly attribute the fluctuations to the wrong source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops dynamic measures of the systemic risk of the financial sector as a whole. It defines systemic risk as the conditional probability of failure of a sufficiently large fraction of the total population of financial institutions. This definition recognizes that the cause of systemic distress is the correlated failure of institutions to meet obligations to creditors, customers, and trading partners. The likelihood estimators of the failure probability are based on a dynamic hazard model of correlated failure timing that captures the influence on failure timing of time-varying macro economic and sector-specific risk factors, and of spillover effects. Tests indicate that our measures provide accurate out-of-sample forecasts of the term structure of systemic risk in the United States for the period from 1998 to 2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper develops a model of directed search on the job in which transitions of workers between unemployment and employment and across employers are driven by heterogeneity in the quality of firm-worker matches. The equilibrium is such that the agents' value and policy functions are independent of the endogenous distribution of workers across employment states. Hence, the model can be solved outside of the steady state and used to measure the effect of cyclical productivity shocks on the labor market. Productivity shocks are found to generate large fluctuations in workers' transitions, unemployment, and vacancies when matches are experience goods, but not when matches are inspection goods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides some insight into the asymmetric effects of stock market volatility transmission using weekly stock market return data (January 1992-June 2010) of four countries, namely, Australia, Singapore, the United Kingdom and the United States within a MGARCH (multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) framework. Our results indicate that negative shocks in each market play a more important role in increasing both volatility and covolatilities than positive shocks. In addition, as expected, we identified that all markets (particularly Australia and Singapore) exhibit significant positive mean and volatility spillovers from the US stock market returns, but not the other way around. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling spatially distributed phenomena in terms of its controlling factors is a recurring problem in geoscience. Most efforts concentrate on predicting the value of response variable in terms of controlling variables either through a physical model or a regression model. However, many geospatial systems comprises complex, nonlinear, and spatially non-uniform relationships, making it difficult to even formulate a viable model. This paper focuses on spatial partitioning of controlling variables that are attributed to a particular range of a response variable. Thus, the presented method surveys spatially distributed relationships between predictors and response. The method is based on association analysis technique of identifying emerging patterns, which are extended in order to be applied more effectively to geospatial data sets. The outcome of the method is a list of spatial footprints, each characterized by a unique 'controlling pattern'-a list of specific values of predictors that locally correlate with a specified value of response variable. Mapping the controlling footprints reveals geographic regionalization of relationship between predictors and response. The data mining underpinnings of the method are given and its application to a real world problem is demonstrated using an expository example focusing on determining variety of environmental associations of high vegetation density across the continental United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the hypothesis that during the 2008--2009 collapse in international trade, imports of higher quality goods experienced larger reductions compared to low-quality imports, using data on US imports disaggregated by HS-10 product category and source country. We find little, if any, robust econometric evidence in support of this hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the relationship between offshoring and the labor market in an occupational choice model of trade and endogenous growth where workers are employed on the basis of their individual skill levels. Trade liberalization leads to offshoring and reduces employment in the manufacturing sector. Displaced workers move into traditional and innovation sectors according to their skill levels, shaping real wages and aggregate productivity in the manufacturing sector. The paper aims to show how inter-sectoral labor market adjustments, highlighted by skill heterogeneity, could be a possible explanation for the simultaneous rise in productivity and reduction in real wages that have coincided with the sharp escalation of offshoring activities in the U.S. manufacturing sector since 2004. ( JEL F16, F23, J24) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the influence of an organization's human resource on its IT competence. The IT human resource is examined in terms of worker tenure and worker composition, and IT competence is defined in terms of IT-business relationships, IT-business knowledge, and IT infrastructure. Design/methodology/approach – The study examines the activities of one organization's software development group over a three-year period, 2004-2006. The organization is a US-based financial services firm, and data are drawn from archived software development project information. Findings – The findings help to clarify how changes in the IT human resource influence a firm's IT competence. A model of organizational IT competence is developed and discussed, along with propositions for future study. Research limitations/implications – The propositions developed in this study provide direction for future IT value research, and are key to the understanding the development of a firm's IT competence. Practical implications – The paper's findings will help organizations understand how employee turnover and the blending of employees and contract workers can impact the long-term effectiveness of a firm's software development function. Originality/value – Previous models of IT value suggest that IT competence is key in a firm's performance. However, those models do not address the changing nature of the IT human resource. The proposed model underlies that organizations can benefit from changes in worker tenure and composition (dimensions of the IT human resource) over time provided they understand and appropriately manage their impact on IT competence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the United States, black workers earn less than their white counterparts and have higher rates of unemployment. Empirical work indicates that most of this wage gap is accounted for by differences in cognitive skills that emerge at an early age. In this paper, we demonstrate that the same is not true for black-white disparity in unemployment. A large unexplained unemployment differential motivates the paper's second contribution--a potential theoretical explanation. This explanation is built around a model that embeds statistical discrimination into the subjective worker evaluation process that lies at the root of the efficiency-wage theory of equilibrium unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does economic inequality affect redistributive policy? This paper turns to U.S. county data on land inequality over the period 1890 to 1930 to help address this fundamental question in political economy. Redistributive policy was primarily decided at the local level during this period, making county-level data particularly informative. Examining within-state variation also reduces the potential impact of latent institutional and political variables. The paper also uses a variety of identification strategies, including historic variables as well as county weather and crop characteristics, as instruments for land inequality. The evidence consistently suggests that greater inequality is significantly associated with less redistribution. This negative relationship is especially large in heavily rural counties, where concentrated landownership implied that landed elites also controlled the majority of economic production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of migration networks in determining self-selection patterns of Mexico-U.S. migration. A simple theoretical framework shows the impact of networks on migration incentives at different education levels and how this affects the composition of migrant skills. Empirically, we find positive or education-neutral selection in communities with weak migrant networks but negative self-selection in communities with stronger networks. This is consistent with high migration costs driving positive or intermediate self-selection, as advocated by Chiquiar and Hanson (2005), and with negative self-selection being driven by lower returns to education in the United States than in Mexico, as advocated by Borjas (1987). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many detention basins built before 1990 are not equipped with storm-water quality control device. With the latest developments in low impact development for storm-water management, these existing detention basins need modifications on their outlet structures to increase on-site runoff treatment and disposal. An outlet shall be designed to have, at least, three levels of release, including water quality release over 12–48 h, low flow release for 10-year event, and 100-year high flow release. All these efforts are to aim at the full spectrum runoff treatment that is not only to capture the minor and major events but also to store microevents. Over the years, the empirical methods under different assumptions have been developed for determining the design storm-water quality control volume (WQCV). To improve the consistency in storm-water detention designs, this paper presents a mathematical model that produces the synthetic runoff-volume capture curves normalized by the local average rainfall event-depth. A runoff-volume capture curve defines the relationship between WQCV and runoff capture ratio on a long-term basis. A higher runoff capture ratio requires a larger storage volume. Using the runoff capture curve as the basis, the WQCV can be consistently determined for the preselected runoff capture target such as the 80% recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in 1986. A case study illustrates how to retrofit an existing outfall concrete vault with a perforated plate and a micropool for WQCV. With a three-level release control, the outfall box can have a slow release for microevents and a fast release for extreme events. This procedure has been recommended for designing a new basin and retrofitting an existing one for the metro Denver area. Details can be found in the UD-DETENTION computer model available at www.udfcd.org at no cost to download. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dissemination of evidence-based programs and policies is a critical final step in reducing the burden of cancer in the general public. Yet, we have not been fully successful to date in improving clinical or public health practice by disseminating programs found to be effective in research. Therefore, research is needed into the dissemination process and outcomes to enable better efforts in the future. This paper explores the definitions and models used for dissemination, the designs of dissemination studies, and possible research questions in dissemination research, all focused on cancer prevention and control. We hope that this paper will encourage dissemination research in our field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate toll setting as a policy tool to regulate the use of roads for dangerous goods shipments. We propose a mathematical formulation as well as a solution method for the hazardous materials toll problem. Based on a comparative analysis of proposed mathematical models, we show that toll policies can be more effective than the popular network design policies that identify road segments to be closed for vehicles carrying hazardous materials. We present a summary of computational experiments on a problem instance from Western Ontario, Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]