Search

The article present a study that determines the ability of the advection schemes in the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). It examines the four two-dimensional tracer transport test cases to quantify the effects of the different advection schemes in CAM5. It also mentions the result of the study, which shows that the finite-volume (CAM-FV) and spectral element (CAM-SE) dynamical cores are better than the semi-Lagrangian transport scheme.

The article presents a study which focuses on the use of polar-focused approach to solar radiation management (SRM) to limit the pace of climatic changes in high latitudes. The study used the CAM3.1 atmospheric model coupled to a slab ocean from the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The study shows that green house gas emission is sufficient to limit the warming influence of greenhouse gas concentrations and polar reductions in solar radiation.

This paper conducts the assimilating experiments and simulating experiments on typhoon "Aere" (No. 0418), by use of bogus data assimilation (BDA) method combined with advanced microwave sounding unit-A (AMSU-A) data assimilation method in the fifth-generation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/Penn State Mesoscale Model Version-3 (MM5V3), the Radiative Transfer for TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder Version-7 (RTTOV) model, and their adjoint models. The Bogus data constructed with BDA technique are mainly located at sea level, while the peak energy contribution levels of the sounder channels selected in AMSU-A data assimilation technique are mainly located at upper troposphere. The two types of data can reconstruct the meso-scale information and improve the typhoon initial fields under themodel dynamic forcing effect, respectively from the low level and the upper level of atmosphere during the assimilating process. Numerical results show that with four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technique the circulation of initial fields is improved, the "warm core" of typhoon is enhanced, the "cloud water" phenomenon that occurs in the optimal initial fields and the numerical model is changed into "warm start" from "cold start". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tries to identify one of the reasons for the poor land skin temperature simulated by a climate model over Greenland. It first compares ICEsat surface height measurements over Greenland with those used by the model and reveals that the surface height of Greenland prescribed in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model/Community Land Model version 3 (CCSM/CLM3) differs greatly from the satellite measurements from National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ICEsat at edges and central glacier regions. This deficiency, in part, leads to underestimated skin temperatures at coastal regions-the areas where significant ice sheet melt is observed. Furthermore, sensitivity studies reveal that surface skin temperature simulations of Greenland would be significantly improved if the more accurate surface height is used. The problem of the height used in current global climate model is mainly due to the fact that the model has to use coarse grid size, and within one grid, land surface height has high heterogeneity. How to assign a proper surface height for each model grid and meanwhile adequately present the high heterogeneity of land surface is a great challenge in current model development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensemble forecasting is increasingly accepted as a powerful tool to improve early warnings for high-impact weather. Recently, ensembles combining forecasts from different systems have attracted a considerable level of interest. The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) project, a prominent contribution to THORPEX, has been initiated to enable advanced research and demonstration of the multimodel ensemble concept and to pave the way toward operational implementation of such a system at the international level. The objectives of TIGGE are 1) to facilitate closer cooperation between the academic and operational meteorological communities by expanding the availability of operational products for research, and 2) to facilitate exploring the concept and benefits of multimodel probabilistic weather forecasts, with a particular focus on high-impact weather prediction. Ten operational weather forecasting centers producing daily global ensemble forecasts to 1--2 weeks ahead have agreed to deliver in near--real time a selection of forecast data to the TIGGE data archives at the China Meteorological Agency, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The volume of data accumulated daily is 245 GB (1.6 million global fields). This is offered to the scientific community as a new resource for research and education. The TIGGE data policy is to make each forecast accessible via the Internet 48 h after it was initially issued by each originating center. Quicker access can also be granted for field experiments or projects of particular interest to the World Weather Research Programme and THORPEX. A few examples of initial results based on TIGGE data are discussed in this paper, and the case is made for additional research in several directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the National Centers for Environmental Prediction - National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalyses hydroclimatic data as an initial check for assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change at the basin scale. A reanalysis dataset for daily precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature from the NCEP-NCAR global (NNGR) and regional (North American Regional Reanalysis or NARR) reanalysis project has been used as input into the semidistributed hydrologic model (Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydraulic Modeling System or HEC-HMS) for the period 1980-2005. An extensive analysis has been performed for assessing the performance of the reanalysis data generated flows compared with the observed inputs during May-November. The stream flows generated from the NARR dataset show encouraging results in simulating summertime low flows with less variability and fewer errors. The results indicate that NNGR results are less accurate and highly variable. This study suggests that NARR can be adequately used as an alternative in data-scarce regions. Le présent article évalue les nouvelles analyses des « NCEP-NCAR (« National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research) » de données hydroclimatiques pour une vérification initiale de l’évaluation des impacts hydrologiques des changements climatiques à l’échelle du bassin. L’ensemble de données pour la nouvelle analyse des précipitations quotidiennes, de la température maximale et de la température minimale du projet de nouvelle analyse « NCEP-NCAR » (a) global (« NNGR ») et (b) régional (« NARR ») a été utilisé comme intrant dans le modèle hydrologique semi-réparti (« HEC-HMS ») pour la période 1980-2005. Une analyse approfondie a été réalisée afin d’évaluer le rendement des données des débits générés par la nouvelle analyse par rapport aux intrants observés entre mai et novembre. Les débits d’eau générés à partir de l’ensemble de données NARR montrent un résultat encourageant pour la simulation des faibles débits d’étiage comportant moins de variabilité et d’erreurs. Les résultats ont indiqué que les résultats NNGR sont moins précis et très variables. La présente étude suggère que NARR peut être utilisé adéquatement comme solution de remplacement dans les régions pour lesquelles les données sont peu abondantes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the meteorological conditions associated with large fluctuations in rainfall over the coastal regions of northern Peru and Ecuador during the 1997/98 El Niño event. Using data from a network of routine rain gauges and special gauges established just prior to the onset of heavy rains, it is shown that large variations in the daily rainfall on quasi-weekly time scales occurred during the period January–April 1998. These rainfall fluctuations were approximately in phase along the coast from near the equator to ∼7°S. The daily rainfall data was averaged to develop a subset of wet and dry days, and then these dates were used as the basis for compositing. Special pilot balloon observations were composited with respect to the wet and dry days, showing that westerly and northerly wind anomalies are associated with wet spells. Composites of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data support a modest association of anomalous westerly wind events with enhanced rainfall. The relationship observed between westerly zonal wind anomalies and rainfall west of the Andes during 1998 suggested using the NCEP reanalysis to develop composites based on westerly wind events observed during other years. Zonal wind anomalies at 700 hPa were used as the primary criterion for stratifying “wet” and “dry” days, despite reservations about the association between rainfall and zonal wind. Compositing Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and OLR data for 220 west wind anomaly events from the months of January–April for the years 1990–2005 showed that they are associated with enhanced cloudiness that propagates eastward at ∼10 m s-1. The composites using NCEP reanalyses show the evolution of the wind field associated with the wet days and suggest a link between extratropical wave passages across North America and anomalous westerly wind events off the coast of Ecuador and northern Peru. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are specified and the oceanic evolution consistent with air–sea interaction is not included. This omission could lead to errors in the atmospheric response to SSTs. At the same time, the AMIP experimental setup is well suited for investigating many aspects of climate variability (e.g., the attribution of the interannual atmospheric variability) and continues to be extensively used. As coupled El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) SST variability is a dominant factor in determining the predictable component of the observed interannual atmospheric variability, the difference in the atmospheric response to ENSO SSTs between AMIP and coupled simulations is investigated. The results indicate that the seasonal atmospheric response to ENSO between coupled and uncoupled integrations is similar, and the inclusion of oceanic evolution consistent with air–sea interaction does not play a dominant role. The analysis presented in this paper is one step toward assessing differences in atmospheric response to SSTs in coupled and uncoupled simulations, and is required to correctly interpret the results of AMIP simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Radar and satellite data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission–Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere (TRMM–LBA) project have been examined to determine causes for convective storm initiation in the southwest Amazon region. The locations and times of storm initiation were based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol). Both the radar and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-8 (GOES-8) visible data were used to identify cold pools produced by convective precipitation. These data along with high-resolution topographic data were used to determine possible convective storm triggering mechanisms. The terrain elevation varied from 100 to 600 m. Tropical forests cover the area with numerous clear-cut areas used for cattle grazing and farming. This paper presents the results from 5 February 1999. A total of 315 storms were initiated within 130 km of the S-Pol radar. This day was classified as a weak monsoon regime where convection developed in response to the diurnal cycle of solar heating. Scattered shallow cumulus during the morning developed into deep convection by early afternoon. Storm initiation began about 1100 LST and peaked around 1500–1600 LST. The causes of storm initiation were classified into four categories. The most common initiation mechanism was caused by forced lifting by a gust front (GF; 36%). Forcing by terrain (>300 m) without any other triggering mechanism accounted for 21% of the initiations and colliding GFs accounted for 16%. For the remaining 27% a triggering mechanism was not identified. Examination of all days during TRMM–LBA showed that this one detailed study day was representative of many days. A conceptual model of storm initiation and evolution is presented. The results of this study should have implications for other locations when synoptic-scale forcing mechanisms are at a minimum. These results should also have implications for very short-period forecasting techniques in any location where terrain, GFs, and colliding boundaries influence storm evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the summer months at the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command’s (ATEC) White Sands Missile Range (WSMR), forecasting thunderstorm activity is one of the primary duties of the range forecasters. The safety of personnel working on the range and the protection of expensive test equipment depend critically on the quality of forecasts of thunderstorms and associated hazards, including cloud-to-ground lightning, hail, strong winds, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and tornadoes. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Auto-Nowcast (ANC) system is one of the key forecast tools in the ATEC Four-Dimensional Weather System (4DWX) at WSMR, where its purpose is to aid WSMR meteorologists in their mission of very short term thunderstorm forecasting. Besides monitoring the weather activity throughout the region and warning personnel of potentially hazardous thunderstorms, forecasters play a key role in assisting with the day-to-day planning of test operations on the range by providing guidance with regard to weather conditions favorable to testing. Moreover, based on climatological information about the local weather conditions, forecasters advise their range customers about scheduling tests at WSMR months in advance. This paper reviews the NCAR ANC system, provides examples of the ANC system’s use in thunderstorm forecasting, and describes climatological analyses of WSMR summertime thunderstorm activity relevant for long-range planning of tests. The climatological analysis illustrates that radar-detected convective cells with reflectivity of ≥35 dBZ at WSMR are 1) short lived, with 76% having lifetimes of less than 30 min; 2) small, with 67% occupying areas of less than 25 km2; 3) slow moving, with 79% exhibiting speeds of less than 4 m s-1; 4) moderately intense, with 80% showing reflectivities in excess of 40 dBZ; and 5) deep, with 80% of the storms reaching far enough above the freezing level to be capable of generating lightning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents two-dimensional (2D) idealized simulations at 1-km grid spacing using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) in order to illustrate how a series of ridges along a broad windward slope can impact the precipitation distribution and simulated microphysics. The number of windward ridges for a 2000-m mountain of 50-km half-width is varied from 0 to 16 over a 150-km distance using different stratifications, freezing levels, uniform ambient flows, and ridge amplitudes. A few (200–400 m) windward ridges can enhance the precipitation locally over each ridge crest by a factor of 2–3. Meanwhile, a series of 8–16 ridges that are 200–400 m in height can increase the net precipitation averaged over the windward slope by 10%–35%. This average precipitation enhancement is maximized when the ridge spacing is relatively small (<20 km), since there is less time for subsidence drying within the valleys and the mountain waves become more evanescent, which favors a simple upward and downward motion couplet over each ridge. In addition, small ridge spacing is shown to have a synergistic effect on precipitation over the lower windward slope, in which an upstream ridge helps increase the precipitation over the adjacent downwind ridge. There is little net precipitation enhancement by the ridges for small moist Froude numbers (Fr < 0.8), since flow blocking limits the flow up and over each ridge. For a series of narrow ridges (∼10 km wide), the largest precipitation enhancement for a 500-mb freezing level occurs over lower windward slope of the barrier through warm-rain processes. In contrast, a 1000-mb freezing level has the largest precipitation enhancement over the middle and upper portions of a barrier for a series of narrow (∼10 km wide) ridges given the horizontal advection of snow aloft. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes important characteristics of an uncoupled high-resolution land data assimilation system (HRLDAS) and presents a systematic evaluation of 18-month-long HRLDAS numerical experiments, conducted in two nested domains (with 12- and 4-km grid spacing) for the period from 1 January 2001 to 30 June 2002, in the context of the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002). HRLDAS was developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to initialize land-state variables of the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)–land surface model (LSM) for high-resolution applications. Both uncoupled HRDLAS and coupled WRF are executed on the same grid, sharing the same LSM, land use, soil texture, terrain height, time-varying vegetation fields, and LSM parameters to ensure the same soil moisture climatological description between the two modeling systems so that HRLDAS soil state variables can be used to initialize WRF–LSM without conversion and interpolation. If HRLDAS is initialized with soil conditions previously spun up from other models, it requires roughly 8–10 months for HRLDAS to reach quasi equilibrium and is highly dependent on soil texture. However, the HRLDAS surface heat fluxes can reach quasi-equilibrium state within 3 months for most soil texture categories. Atmospheric forcing conditions used to drive HRLDAS were evaluated against Oklahoma Mesonet data, and the response of HRLDAS to typical errors in each atmospheric forcing variable was examined. HRLDAS-simulated finescale (4 km) soil moisture, temperature, and surface heat fluxes agreed well with the Oklahoma Mesonet and IHOP_2002 field data. One case study shows high correlation between HRLDAS evaporation and the low-level water vapor field derived from radar analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Single column models (SCMs) provide an economical framework for developing and diagnosing representations of diabatic processes in weather and climate models. Their economy is achieved at the price of ignoring interactions with the circulation dynamics and with neighboring columns. It has recently been emphasized that this decoupling can lead to spurious error growth in SCM integrations that can totally obscure the error growth due to errors in the column physics that one hopes to isolate through such integrations. This paper suggests one way around this “existential crisis” of single column modeling. The basic idea is to focus on short-term SCM forecast errors, at ranges of 6 h or less, before a grossly unrealistic model state develops and before complex diabatic interactions render a clear diagnosis impossible. To illustrate, a short-term forecast error diagnosis of the NCAR SCM is presented for tropical conditions observed during the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE). The 21-day observing period is divided into 84 6-h segments for this purpose. The SCM error evolution is shown to be nearly linear over these 6-h segments and, indeed, apart from a vertical mean bias, to be mainly an extrapolation of initial tendencies. The latter are then decomposed into contributions by various components of the column physics, and additional 6-h integrations are performed with each component separately and in combination with others to assess its contribution to the 6-h errors. Initial tendency and 6-h error diagnostics thus complement each other in diagnosing column physics errors by this approach. Although the SCM evolution from one time step to the next is nearly linear, the finite-amplitude adjustments made multiple times within each time step to the temperature and humidity to remove supersaturation and convective instabilities make it necessary to consider nonlinear interactions between the column physics components. One such particularly strong interaction is identified between vertical diffusion and deep convection. The former, though nominally small, is shown to have a profound impact on both the amplitude and timing of the latter, and thence on the small imbalance between the total diabatic heating and adiabatic cooling of ascent in the column. The SCM diagnosis thus suggests that misrepresentation of this interaction, in addition to that of the interacting components themselves, might be a major contributor to the NCAR GCM's tropical simulation errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the global ocean component of the NCAR Climate System Model. New parameterizations of the effects of mesoscale eddies and of the upper-ocean boundary layer are included. Numerical improvements include a third-order upwind advection scheme and elimination of the artificial North Pole island in the original MOM 1.1 code. Updated forcing fields are used to drive the ocean-alone solution, which is integrated long enough so that it is in equilibrium. The ocean transports and potential temperature and salinity distributions are compared with observations. The solution sensitivity to the freshwater forcing distribution is highlighted, and the sensitivity to resolution is also briefly discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the climatology and interannual variation of the East Asian winter monsoon based on the 1979--95 National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis. In addition to documenting the frequency, intensity, and preferred propagation tracks of cold surges and the evolution patterns of related fields, the authors discuss the temporal distribution of the Siberian high and cold surges. Further, the interannual variation of the cold surges and winter monsoon circulation and its relationship with ENSO were examined. There are on average 13 cold surges in each winter season (October--April), of which two are strong cases. The average intensity of cold surges, measured by maximum sea level pressure, is 1053 hPa. The cold surges originate from two source regions: 1) northwest of Lake Baikal, and 2) north of Lake Balkhash. The typical evolution of a cold surge occurs over a period of 5--14 days. Trajectory and correlation analyses indicate that, during this time, high pressure centers propagate southeastward around the edge of the Tibetan Plateau from the mentioned source regions. Some of these high pressure centers then move eastward and diminish over the oceans, while others proceed southward. The signatures of the associated temperature, wind, and pressure fields propagate farther southward and eastward. The affected area encompasses the bulk of the maritime continent. Although the intensity of the Siberian high peaks during December and January, the frequency of cold surges reaches a maximum in November and in March. This result suggests that November through March should be considered as the East Asian winter monsoon season. Two stratifications of cold surges are used to examine the relationship between ENSO and the interannual variation of the winter monsoon. The first one, described as conventional cold surges, indicates that the surge frequency reaches a minimum a year... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The rapid growth of energy consumption in conjunction with economic development during past decades in East Asia, especially China, caused severe air pollution problems at local and regional scales. Understanding of the meteorological conditions for air pollution is essential to the understanding of the formation mechanism of air pollutants and the development of effective emission control strategies to reduce air pollution. In this paper, the Fifth Generation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/Pennsylvania State University (PSU) Mesoscale Model (MM5) modeling system is applied to simulate meteorological fields during selected six 1-month periods in 2007/2008 over a triple-nested modeling domain covering East Asia, the eastern China, and Shandong Province at horizontal grid resolutions of 36-, 12-, and 4-km, respectively. MM5 generally reproduces well the observations in the eastern China but performs worse in the western China and northeastern China. Largest biases occur in 2-m temperatures (T2) and wind speed and wind direction at 10-m in haze months (i.e., winter) and daily mean precipitation (Precip) in non-haze months (i.e., summer), due to limitations of the model in simulating snow cover and convective precipitation. Meteorological predictions agree more closely with observations at urban sites than those at the coastal and mountain sites where the model performance deteriorates because of complex terrains, influences of urban heat island effect and land/sea breezes, and higher elevations. Model results at 12-km in Shandong Province show an overall better performance than those at 4- or 36-km while the results at 4-km show worst performance due to inaccurate land use and the model’s incapability in simulating meteorological processes at a fine scale. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In the frame of this paper a heat wave that resulted in record high temperatures in Athens Greece is analysed. Namely the analysis focuses in the ability of three widely used planetary boundary layer parameterisations to reproduce the heat wave temperatures. The simulations were performed with the Pennsylvania State University – National Center for Atmospheric Research MM5 model that is also used for operational weather forecasting at the National Observatory of Athens since 2002. The 2-m temperature at a grid increment of 1-km over the highly complex terrain of the Athens Area is statistically verified against the available surface station observations. The results of the analysis showed that the two nonlocal schemes, namely Blackadar and MRF succeeded much better than the local scheme ETA to reproduce the heat wave 2-m temperature although they considerably underestimated the maximum observed temperatures. In addition, it was found that the model grid points characterised by “urban” land-use provided better statistical verification results, with reduced cold bias. Further, in order to study the role of the initial skin temperature conditions on the 2-m temperature forecasts, satellite observed skin temperatures have been used to initialise the high resolution simulations. This sensitivity test showed that when using the satellite observed skin temperature in the model initial conditions, the simulation of the 2-m temperature is positively affected during the early stages of the simulation while later on the model physical parameterisations are decisive for the time evolution of temperature. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The development of the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) will make possible a wealth of new geophysical research opportunities in the areas of atmospheric chemistry, climate forcing, weather system structure and evolution, the carbon and water vapor cycles, and ecosystem processes. In this paper, we present a brief background on the history of the HIAPER project and discuss the modifications made to the basic aircraft [a Gulfstream V (GV) business jet] and the infrastructure systems installed to transform it into an environmental research platform. General aircraft performance capabilities that make the GV uniquely suited for high-altitude, long-range studies of geophysical phenomena are also discussed. The conduct of research with HIAPER will require that suitable instrumentation payloads are available for use on the aircraft, and the processes followed by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for the development of an initial platform instrumentation suite to meet critical measurements needs are described. HIAPER's unique configuration and capabilities will make it an effective tool for the conduct of weather and water cycle research, the study of atmospheric chemistry and climate forcing, and the monitoring of biosphere structure and productivity, as we shall discuss. We conclude with an overview of the objectives of the initial HIAPER flight-testing program and the process whereby this new research platform will be made available to members of the scientific community for the support of environmental research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Present-day Arctic and Antarctic climate of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) is presented. The CCM3 simulation is from a prescribed and interannually varying sea surface temperature integration from January 1979 through August 1993. Observations from a variety of sources, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses, rawinsonde, and surface station data, are used for validation of CCM3's polar climate during this period. Overall, CCM3 can simulate many important polar climatic features and in general is an incremental improvement over CCM2. The 500-hPa polar vortex minima are too deep by 50--100 m and too zonally symmetric. The Arctic sea level pressure maximum is displaced poleward, while the Icelandic region minimum is extended toward Europe, and the Aleutian region minimum is extended toward Asia. The Antarctic circumpolar trough of low sea level pressure is slightly north of the observed position and is 2--3 hPa too low. Antarctic katabatic winds are similar to observations in magnitude and regional variation. The Antarctic surface wind stress is estimated to be 30%--50% too strong in some regions. Polar tropospheric temperatures are 2&deg--4&degC colder than observations, mostly in the summer season. Low-level winter inversions over the Arctic Ocean are only 3&deg--4&degC, rather than the observed 10&degC. In the Antarctic midcontinent they are around 25&deg--30&degC (about 5&deg stronger than observed) and continue to be stronger than observed along the coast. Although water vapor column is uniformly low by 10%--20% compared to analyses in both polar regions, the regional patterns of minima over Greenland and the East Antarctic plateau are well represented. Annual 70&deg to pole CCM3 values are 5.8 kg m[sup-2] for the Arctic and 1.7 kg m[sup-2] for the Antarctic. The regional distribution of precipitation minus evaporation compares reasonably with analyses. (...). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamical mechanisms underlying the transient circulation adjustment in the extratropical atmosphere after the instantaneous doubling of carbon dioxide are investigated using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 3 coupled to a Slab Ocean Model. It is shown that the transient process during the first few months of integration is important in setting up the extratropical circulation response in equilibrium such as the poleward shift of the tropospheric jet streams. Three phases are found during the transient thermal/dynamical adjustment in the Northern Hemisphere: 1) a radiatively driven easterly anomaly in the subpolar stratosphere, 2) an acceleration of the westerly anomaly in the subpolar stratosphere as a result of anomalous planetary-scale eddy momentum flux convergence, and 3) a 'downward migration' of the westerly anomaly from the lower stratosphere to the troposphere, followed by the tropospheric jet shift. Several proposed mechanisms for inducing the poleward shift of the tropospheric jet streams are examined. No significant increase in eddy phase speed is found. The rise in tropopause height appears to lead the tropospheric jet shift but no close relation is observed. The length scale of transient eddies does increase but does not lead the tropospheric jet shift. Finally, the tropospheric jet shift can be captured by changes in the index of refraction and the resulting anomalous eddy propagation in the troposphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies have found an eastward shift in the northern node of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the winters of 1978-97 compared to 1958-77. This study focuses on the connection between this shift of the northern node of the NAO and Rossby wave breaking (RWB) for the period 1958-97. It is found that the region of frequent cyclonic RWB underwent a northeastward shift at high latitudes in the latter 20-yr period. On a year-to-year basis, the cyclonic RWB region moves along a southwest-northeast (SW-NE)-directed axis. Both latitude and longitude of the winter maximum frequency of cyclonic RWB occurrence are positively correlated with the NAO index. To investigate the role of location of cyclonic RWB in influencing the NAO pattern, the geographical location of frequent cyclonic RWB is divided into two subdomains located along the SW-NE axis, to the south (SW domain) and east (NE domain) of Greenland. Two composites are assembled as one cyclonic RWB occurrence is detected in one of the two subdomains in 6-hourly instantaneous data. The forcing of the mean flow due to cyclonic RWB within individual subdomains is found to be locally restricted to where the breaking occurs, which is usually near the jet exit region and far removed from the jet core. The difference in the jet between the NE and SW composites resembles the difference in the mean jet between the 1978-97 and 1958-77 periods, which suggests that the change in cyclonic RWB occurrence in the two subdomains is associated with the wobbling of the jet on the decadal time scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large-eddy simulation model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is extended to simulate the transport and diffusion of COO, HO and CO in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The simulation results show that the O compositions of leaf water and the ABL CO are moderately sensitive to wind speed. The variations in the O composition of water vapour are an order of magnitude greater than those in the C and O compositions of CO both at turbulent eddy scales and across the capping inversion. In a fully-developed convective ABL, these isotopic compositions are well mixed as with other conserved atmospheric quantities. The Keeling intercepts determined with the simulated high-frequency turbulence time series do not give a reliable estimate of the O composition of the surface water vapour flux and may be a reasonable approximation to the C and O compositions of the surface CO flux in the late afternoon only after a deep convective ABL has developed. We suggest that our isotopic large-eddy simulation (ISOLES) model should be a useful tool for testing and formulating research hypotheses on land-air isotopic exchanges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conducting probabilistic climate projections with a particular climate model requires the ability to vary the model's characteristics, such as its climate sensitivity. In this study, the authors implement and validate a method to change the climate sensitivity of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 3 (CAM3), through cloud radiative adjustment. Results show that the cloud radiative adjustment method does not lead to physically unrealistic changes in the model's response to an external forcing, such as doubling CO2 concentrations or increasing sulfate aerosol concentrations. Furthermore, this method has some advantages compared to the traditional perturbed physics approach. In particular, the cloud radiative adjustment method can produce any value of climate sensitivity within the wide range of uncertainty based on the observed twentieth century climate change. As a consequence, this method allows Monte Carlo-type probabilistic climate forecasts to be conducted where values of uncertain parameters not only cover the whole uncertainty range, but cover it homogeneously. Unlike the perturbed physics approach that can produce several versions of a model with the same climate sensitivity but with very different regional patterns of change, the cloud radiative adjustment method can only produce one version of the model with a specific climate sensitivity. As such, a limitation of this method is that it cannot cover the full uncertainty in regional patterns of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports that the climate change hot spots mapped across the United States. According to climate modeler Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, the latest regional climate highlights regios where climate changes will be bigger than others. Climate modeler Noah Diffenbaugh of Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana lay out in the paper, regional climate modeling, which is in press in "Geophysical Research Letters" (GRL). According to the model, the strongest U.S hot spot by far stretches across the Southwest from southern California to west Texas, and intensifies over northern Mexico.

The major evolution of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is used to diagnose climate feedbacks, understand how climate feedbacks change with different physical parameterizations, and identify the processes and regions that determine climate sensitivity. In the evolution of CAM from version 4 to version 5, the water vapor, temperature, surface albedo, and lapse rate feedbacks are remarkably stable across changes to the physical parameterization suite. However, the climate sensitivity increases from 3.2 K in CAM4 to 4.0 K in CAM5. The difference is mostly due to (i) more positive cloud feedbacks and (ii) higher CO2 radiative forcing in CAM5. The intermodel differences in cloud feedbacks are largest in the tropical trade cumulus regime and in the midlatitude storm tracks. The subtropical stratocumulus regions do not contribute strongly to climate feedbacks owing to their small area coverage. A 'modified Cess' configuration for atmosphere-only model experiments is shown to reproduce slab ocean model results. Several parameterizations contribute to changes in tropical cloud feedbacks between CAM4 and CAM5, but the new shallow convection scheme causes the largest midlatitude feedback differences and the largest change in climate sensitivity. Simulations with greater cloud forcing in the mean state have lower climate sensitivity. This work provides a methodology for further analysis of climate sensitivity across models and a framework for targeted comparisons with observations that can help constrain climate sensitivity to radiative forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the development of a convective boundary layer (CBL) in the Badanjilin region was investigated by comparing the observation data of two cases. A deep neutral layer capped a CBL that occurred on 30 August 2009. This case was divided into five sublayers from the surface to higher atmospheric elevations: surface layer, mixed layer, inversion layer, neutral layer, and sub-inversion layer. The development process of the CBL was divided into three stages: S1, S2, and S3. This case was quite different from the development of the three-layer CBL observed on 31 August 2009 because the mixed layer of the five-layer CBL (CBL5) eroded the neutral layer during S2. The specific initial structure of the CBL5 was correlated to the synoptic background of atmosphere during nighttime. The three-stage development process of the CBL5 was confirmed by six simulations using National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) large-eddy simulation (NCAR-LES), and some of its characteristics are presented in detail. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the Legacy Atmospheric Sounding Dataset Project in which data from weather observations and research are captured for archival purposes. Information is provided on the ways in which archival recordings are made, which include 9-track magnetic tapes, microfiche, and print. It is noted that the National Center for U.S. Atmospheric Research (NCAR) maintains an Internet accessible archive.

This study investigates the annual cycle of radiative contributions to global climate feedbacks. A partial radiative perturbation (PRP) technique is used to diagnose monthly radiative perturbations at the top of atmosphere (TOA) due to CO2 forcing; surface temperature response; and water vapor, cloud, lapse rate, and surface albedo feedbacks using NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) output from a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B emissions-scenario-forced climate simulation. The seasonal global mean longwave TOA radiative feedback was found to be minimal. However, the global mean shortwave (SW) TOA cloud and surface albedo radiative perturbations exhibit large seasonality. The largest contributions to the negative SW cloud feedback occur during summer in each hemisphere, marking the largest differences with previous results. Results suggest that intermodel spread in climate sensitivity may occur, partially from cloud and surface albedo feedback seasonality differences. Further, links between the climate feedback and surface temperature response seasonality are investigated, showing a strong relationship between the seasonal climate feedback distribution and the seasonal surface temperature response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical analysis of extreme values is applied to wind data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis grid points over the ocean region bounded at 23°S and 40°W and 42°W towards the south and southeastern Brazilian coast. The period of analysis goes from 1975 to 2006. The generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions are employed for annual and daily maxima, respectively. The Pareto-Poisson point process characterization is also used to analyze peaks over threshold. Return levels for 10, 25, 50, and 100 years are calculated at each grid point. However, most of the reanalysis data fall within 1-10-year return periods, suggesting that hazardous wind speed with low probability (return periods of 50-100) have rarely measured in this period. Wide confidence intervals on these levels show that there is not enough information to make predictions with any degree of certainty to return periods over 100 years. Low extremal index ( θ) values are found for excess wind speeds over a high threshold, indicating the occurrence of consecutively high peaks. In order to obtain realistic uncertainty information concerning inferences associated with threshold excesses, a declustering method is performed, which separates the excesses into clusters, thereby rendering the extreme values more independent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and solar radio irradiance (SRI) at 10.7 cm wavelength obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction center, the abrupt temperature change in the mid-1970s and its possible association with solar irradiance variability have been investigated. The results show that a discontinuous abrupt change in the mid-1970s in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis was observed in the tropical lower and middle stratospheric temperature. The shift in temperature and its timing agrees well with the climate regime shift discovered in the radiosonde observations (HadAT), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40), and many previous studies and manifests a statistically significant change at the 95% confidence level. A corresponding change of the SRI was identified in the mid 1970s although the statistical t test value is not very high. The running correlation with a 21-year moving time window exhibits a strong positive correlation between the solar cycle and atmospheric temperature in the tropical stratosphere during the period of 1948-2007. However, the positive correlation was broken at the time of the mid-1970s abrupt change and two peak positive correlation points were observed in 1972 and 1982, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multiple-single-column approach is proposed as a new concept to study the boundary layer parameterization scheme in the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University--National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). The results are compared with the Dutch Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulation Model (DALES). Numerical experiments were performed over homogeneous and heterogeneous surfaces under clear convective boundary layer conditions. Identical simulations using MM5 and DALES were performed, which enabled an evaluation of the MM5 boundary layer scheme with DALES results. From the experiment with a homogeneous surface, MM5 shows a slightly shallower, colder, and moister boundary layer than DALES. This result is produced by an underestimation of turbulent mixing near the surface and less-vigorous entrainment of heat and dry air in MM5. In the heterogeneous surface experiment, the domain is divided into dry and wet patches, with the result that both models produce a mesoscale circulation. However, relative to the homogeneous case, larger differences were found between the models in the representation of the boundary layer dynamics. In DALES, the surface heterogeneity influenced the turbulent motions, making the mesoscale circulation much stronger ( wmax is 6 times as large) than in MM5. Because of this stronger circulation, the boundary layer height, bulk temperature, and humidity also displayed differences in time and spatial patterns. Because of the land--atmosphere coupling in MM5, the mesoscale circulation strengthened the surface flux heterogeneity. Cold and moist air advection close to the surface from the wet patch to the dry patch increased the sensible heat flux above the dry patch and thus the induced mesoscale flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed as a nested regional climate model to dynamically downscale output from the National Center for Atmospheric Research''s (NCAR''s) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3 and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)--NCAR global reanalysis (NNRP). The latter is used for verification of late-twentieth-century climate simulations from the WRF. This analysis finds that the WRF is able to produce precipitation that is more realistic than that from its driving systems (the CCSM and NNRP). It also diagnoses potential issues with and differences between all of the simulations completed. Specifically, the magnitude of heavy 6-h average precipitation events, the frequency distribution, and the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the central United States are greatly improved. Projections from the WRF for late-twenty-first-century precipitation show decreases in average May--August (MJJA) precipitation, but increases in the intensity of both heavy precipitation events and rain in general when it does fall. A decrease in the number of 6-h periods with rainfall accounts for the overall decrease in average precipitation. The WRF also shows an increase in the frequency of very heavy to extreme 6-h average events, but a decrease in the frequency of all events lighter than those over the central United States. Overall, projections from this study suggest an increase in the frequency of both floods and droughts during the warm season in the central United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2003 the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has been running various experimental convection-allowing configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) for domains covering a large portion of the central United States during the warm season (April-July). In this study, the skill of 3-hourly accumulated precipitation forecasts from a large sample of these convection-allowing simulations conducted during 2004-05 and 2007-08 is compared to that from operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model forecasts using a neighborhood-based equitable threat score (ETS). Separate analyses were conducted for simulations run before and after the implementation in 2007 of positive-definite (PD) moisture transport for the NCAR-WRF simulations. The neighborhood-based ETS (denoted 〈ETS〉 r) relaxes the criteria for 'hits' (i.e., correct forecasts) by considering grid points within a specified radius r. It is shown that 〈ETS〉 r is more useful than the traditional ETS because 〈ETS〉 r can be used to diagnose differences in precipitation forecast skill between different models as a function of spatial scale, whereas the traditional ETS only considers the spatial scale of the verification grid. It was found that differences in 〈ETS〉 r between NCAR-WRF and NAM generally increased with increasing r, with NCAR-WRF having higher scores. Examining time series of 〈ETS〉 r for r = 100 and r = 0 km (which simply reduces to the 'traditional' ETS), statistically significant differences between NCAR-WRF and NAM were found at many forecast lead times for 〈ETS〉100 but only a few times for 〈ETS〉0. Larger and more statistically significant differences occurred with the 2007-08 cases relative to the 2004-05 cases. Because of differences in model configurations and dominant large-scale weather regimes, a more controlled experiment would have been needed to diagnose the reason for the larger differences that occurred with the 2007-08 cases. Finally, a compositing technique was used to diagnose the differences in the spatial distribution of the forecasts. This technique implied westward displacement errors for NAM model forecasts in both sets of cases and in NCAR-WRF model forecasts for the 2007-08 cases. Generally, the results are encouraging because they imply that advantages in convection-allowing relative to convection-parameterizing simulations noted in recent studies are reflected in an objective neighborhood-based metric. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The structure and evolution features of the quasi-biweekly (10–20 day) oscillation (QBWO) in boreal spring over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) are investigated using 27-yr daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and the National Centers for Environment Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis data. It is found that a convective disturbance is initiated over the western IO and moves slowly eastward. After passing the central IO, it abruptly jumps into the eastern IO. Meanwhile, the preexisting suppressed convective anomaly in the eastern IO moves poleward in the form of double-cell Rossby gyres. The analysis of vertical circulation shows that a few days prior to the onset of local convection in the eastern equatorial IO an ascending motion appears in the boundary layer. Based on the diagnosis of the zonal momentum equation, a possible boundary layer–triggering mechanism over the eastern equatorial IO is proposed. The cause of the boundary layer convergence and vertical motion is attributed to the free-atmospheric divergence in association with the development of the barotropic wind. It is the downward transport of the background mean easterly momentum by perturbation vertical motion during the suppressed convective phase of the QBWO that leads to the generation of a barotropic easterly—the latter of which further causes the free-atmospheric divergence and, thus, the boundary layer convergence. The result suggests that the local process, rather than the eastward propagation of the disturbance from the western IO, is essential for the phase transition of the QBWO convection over the eastern equatorial IO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate response to increased CO2 concentration is generally studied using climate models that have finite spatial and temporal resolutions. Different parameterizations of the effect of unresolved processes can result in different representations of small-scale fluctuations in the climate model. The representation of small-scale fluctuations can, on the other hand, affect the modeled climate response. In this study the mechanisms by which enhanced small-scale fluctuations alter the climate response to CO2 doubling are investigated. Climate experiments with preindustrial and doubled CO2 concentrations obtained from a comprehensive climate model [ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM)] are analyzed both with and without enhanced small-scale fluctuations. By applying a stochastic model to the experimental results, two different mechanisms are found. First, the small-scale fluctuations can change the statistical behavior of the global mean temperature as measured by its statistical damping. The statistical damping acts as a restoring force that determines, according to the fluctuation–dissipation theory, the amplitude of the climate response to a change in external forcing (here, CO2 doubling). Second, the small-scale fluctuations can affect processes that occur only in response to the CO2 increase, thereby altering the change of the effective forcing on the global mean temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dual-polarization radar measurements and in situ measurements of supercooled liquid water and ice particles within orographic cloud systems are used to develop probabilistic criteria for identifying mixed-phase versus ice-phase regions of sub-0°C clouds. The motivation for this study is the development of quantitative criteria for identification of potential aircraft icing conditions in clouds using polarization radar. The measurements were obtained during the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) with the National Center for Atmospheric Research S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol) and Electra aircraft. The comparison of the radar and aircraft measurements required the development of an automated algorithm to match radar and aircraft observations in time and space. This algorithm is described, and evaluations are presented to verify its accuracy. Three polarization radar parameters, the radar reflectivity factor at horizontal polarization ( ZH), the differential reflectivity ( ZDR), and the specific differential phase ( KDP), are first separately shown to be statistically distinguishable between conditions in mixed- and ice-phase clouds, even when an estimate of measurement uncertainty is included. Probability distributions for discrimination of mixed-phase versus ice-phase clouds are then developed using the matched radar and aircraft measurements. The probability distributions correspond well to a basic physical understanding of ice particle growth by riming and vapor deposition, both of which may occur in mixed-phase conditions. To the extent that the probability distributions derived for the MAP orographic clouds can be applied to other cloud systems, they provide a simple tool for warning aircraft of the likelihood that supercooled water may be encountered in regions of clouds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial and temporal changes in high-latitude moisture convergence simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) are investigated. Moisture convergence is calculated using the aerological method with model fields of specific humidity and winds spanning the periods from 1960 to 1999 and 2070 to 2089. The twenty-first century incorporates the A2 scenario from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The model’s realism in reproducing the twentieth-century moisture convergence is evaluated by comparison with values derived from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). In the area north of 75°N, the simulated moisture convergence is similar to observations during summer, but it is larger in winter, spring, and autumn. The model also underestimates (overestimates) the mean annual moisture convergence in the eastern (western) Arctic. Late twenty-first century annual, seasonal, and regional changes are determined by applying a self-organizing map technique to the model’s sea level pressure fields to identify dominant atmospheric circulation regimes and their corresponding moisture convergence fields. Changes in moisture convergence from the twentieth to the twenty-first century result primarily from thermodynamic effects (∼70%), albeit shifts in the frequency of dominant circulation patterns exert a relatively large influence on future changes in the eastern Arctic. Increased moisture convergence in the central Arctic (North Atlantic) stems mainly from thermodynamic changes in summer (winter). Changes in the strength and location of poleward moisture gradients are most likely responsible for projected variations in moisture transport, which are in turn a consequence of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions as prescribed by the A2 scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of convection parameterization in the formation of double ITCZ and associated upper-ocean biases in the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) is investigated by comparing the simulations using the original and revised Zhang–McFarlane (ZM) convection schemes. Ten-year model climatologies show that the simulation with the original ZM scheme produces a typical double ITCZ bias, whereas all biases related to the spurious double ITCZ and overly strong cold tongue in precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), wind stress, ocean thermocline, upper-ocean currents, temperature, and salinity are dramatically reduced when the revised ZM scheme is used. These results demonstrate that convection parameterization plays a critical role in the formation of double ITCZ bias in the CCSM3. To understand the physical mechanisms through which the modifications of the convection scheme in the atmospheric model alleviate the double ITCZ bias in the CCSM3, the authors investigate the impacts of convection schemes on the atmospheric forcing and feedback in the uncoupled Community Atmospheric Model, version 3 (CAM3). It is shown that the CAM3 simulation with the original ZM scheme also produces a signature of double ITCZ bias in precipitation, whereas the simulation with the revised ZM scheme does not. Diagnostic analyses have identified three factors on the atmospheric side (i.e., the sensitivity of convection to SST, the convection–shortwave flux–SST feedback, and the convection–wind–evaporation–SST feedback) that may contribute to the differences in the coupled simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The verification of a gridded forecast field, for example, one produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, cannot be performed on a gridpoint-by-gridpoint basis; that type of approach would ignore the spatial structures present in both forecast and observation fields, leading to misinformative or noninformative verification results. A variety of methods have been proposed to acknowledge the spatial structure of the fields. Here, a method is examined that compares the two fields in terms of their variograms. Two types of variograms are examined: one examines correlation on different spatial scales and is a measure of texture; the other type of variogram is additionally sensitive to the size and location of objects in a field and can assess size and location errors. Using these variograms, the forecasts of three NWP model formulations are compared with observations/analysis, on a dataset consisting of 30 days in spring 2005. It is found that within statistical uncertainty the three formulations are comparable with one another in terms of forecasting the spatial structure of observed reflectivity fields. None, however, produce the observed structure across all scales, and all tend to overforecast the spatial extent and also forecast a smoother precipitation (reflectivity) field. A finer comparison suggests that the University of Oklahoma 2-km resolution Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) 4-km resolution WRF-ARW slightly outperform the 4.5-km WRF-Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM), developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA/NCEP), in terms of producing forecasts whose spatial structures are closer to that of the observed field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two flaws in the semi-Lagrangian algorithm originally implemented as an optional dynamical core in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1) are exposed by steady-state and baroclinic instability test cases. Remedies are demonstrated and have been incorporated in the dynamical core. One consequence of the first flaw is an erroneous damping of the speed of a zonally uniform zonal wind undergoing advection by a zonally uniform zonal flow field. It results from projecting the transported vector wind expressed in unit vectors at the arrival point to the surface of the sphere and is eliminated by rotating the vector to be parallel to the surface. The second flaw is the formulation of an a posteriori energy fixer that, although small, systematically affects the temperature field and leads to an incorrect evolution of the growing baroclinic wave. That fixer restores the total energy at each time step by changing the provisional forecast temperature proportionally to the magnitude of the temperature change at that time step. Two other fixers are introduced that do not exhibit the flaw. One changes the provisional temperature everywhere by an additive constant, and the other changes it proportionally by a multiplicative constant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of initialized land surface conditions on the monthly prediction were investigated using ensemble simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3). The land surface initialization was based on an offline calculation of Community Land Model version 3 driven by observation-based meteorological forcings from the Global Soil Wetness Project 2 (GSWP2). A simple but effective correction method was applied to the GSWP2 forcings prior to the offline calculation to reduce the discrepancies between the observation-forced land surface conditions and the modeling system, which can cause climate drift and initial shock problems. The climatological mean of GSWP2 forcings was adjusted to that of the target model (CAM3), while the monthly anomalies were scaled to the model statistics and high-frequency synoptic variabilities were included. Ensemble hindcast experiments with and without land surface initialization were conducted for the boreal summer (May–September), for 1983–95. The initialization process is shown to prevent climate drift and to transfer the atmospheric anomalies to the land surface memory. Statistical analyses of the simulation results reveal that the land surface initialization increased the externally forced variance over most continental regions, which is translated to enhanced potential predictability, particularly for regions with strong land–atmosphere coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hurricane Bret underwent a rapid intensification (RI) and subsequent weakening between 1200 UTC 21 August and 1200 UTC 22 August 1999 before it made landfall on the Texas coast 12 h later. Its minimum sea level pressure fell 35 hPa from 979 to 944 hPa within 24 h. During this period, aircraft of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) flew several research missions that sampled the environment and inner core of the storm. These datasets are combined with gridded data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Model and the NCEP–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalyses to document Bret’s atmospheric and oceanic environment as well as their relation to the observed structural and intensity changes. Bret’s RI was linked to movement over a warm ocean eddy and high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico coupled with a concurrent decrease in vertical wind shear. SSTs at the beginning of the storm’s RI were approximately 29°C and steadily increased to 30°C as it moved to the north. The vertical wind shear relaxed to less than 10 kt during this time. Mean values of oceanic heat content (OHC) beneath the storm were about 20% higher at the beginning of the RI period than 6 h prior. The subsequent weakening was linked to the cooling of near-coastal shelf waters (to between 25° and 26°C) by prestorm mixing combined with an increase in vertical wind shear. The available observations suggest no intrusion of dry air into the circulation core contributed to the intensity evolution. Sensitivity studies with the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) model were conducted to quantitatively describe the influence of environmental conditions on the intensity forecast. Four different cases with modified vertical wind shear and/or SSTs were studied. Differences between the four cases were relatively small because of the model design, but the greatest intensity changes resulted for much cooler prescribed SSTs. The results of this study underscore the importance of OHC and vertical wind shear as significant factors during RIs; however, internal dynamical processes appear to play a more critical role when a favorable environment is present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study makes the case that westerly bias in the surface winds of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 3 (CAM3), over the equatorial Atlantic in boreal spring has its origin in the rainfall (diabatic heating) bias over the tropical South American continent. The case is made by examination of the spatiotemporal evolution of regional precipitation and wind biases and by dynamical diagnoses of the westerly wind bias from experiments with a steady, linearized dynamical core of an atmospheric general circulation model. Diagnostic modeling indicates that underestimating rainfall over the eastern Amazon region can lead to the westerly bias in equatorial Atlantic surface winds. The study suggests that efforts to reduce coupled model biases, especially seasonal ones, must target continental biases, even in the deep tropics where ocean–atmosphere interaction generally rules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article features the I. M. Pei's Mesa Laboratory for the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, and Louis Kahn's Salk Institute in California, which are known for their architecture and scientific contributions. It is cited that the founding directors Walter Roberts and Jonas Salk, worked with architects to express their scientific style.

Brightness temperature histograms observed at 50–191 GHz by the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on operational NOAA satellites are shown to be consistent with predictions made using a mesoscale NWP model [the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5)] and a radiative transfer model [TBSCAT/F(λ)] for a global set of 122 storms coincident with the AMSU observations. Observable discrepancies between the observed and modeled histograms occurred when 1) snow and graupel mixing ratios were increased more than 15% and 25%, respectively, or their altitudes increased more than ∼25 mb; 2) the density, F(λ), of equivalent Mie-scattering ice spheres increased more than 0.03 g cm-3; and 3) the two-stream ice scattering increased more than ∼1%. Using the same MM5/TBSCAT/F(λ) model, neural networks were developed to retrieve the following from AMSU and geostationary microwave satellites: hydrometeor water paths, 15-min average surface-precipitation rates, and cell-top altitudes, all with 15-km resolution. Simulated AMSU rms precipitation-rate retrieval accuracies ranged from 0.4 to 21 mm h-1 when grouped by octaves of MM5 precipitation rate between 0.1 and 64 mm h-1, and were ∼3.8 mm h-1 for the octave 4–8 mm h-1. AMSU and geostationary microwave (GEM) precipitation-rate retrieval accuracies for random 50–50 mixtures of profiles simulated with either the baseline or a modified-physics model were largely insensitive to changes in model physics that would be clearly evident in AMSU observations if real. This insensitivity of retrieval accuracies to model assumptions implies that MM5/TBSCAT/F(λ) simulations offer a useful test bed for evaluating alternative millimeter-wave satellite designs and methods for retrieval and assimilation, to the extent that surface effects are limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A prognostic equation for ice crystal number concentration together with an ice nucleation scheme are implemented in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmospheric Model version 3 (CAM3) with the aim of studying the indirect effect of aerosols on cold clouds. The effective radius of ice crystals, which is used in the radiation and gravitational settlement calculations, is now calculated from model-predicted mass and number of ice crystals rather than diagnosed as a function of temperature. A water vapor deposition scheme is added to replace the condensation and evaporation (C–E) in the standard CAM3 for ice clouds. The repartitioning of total water into liquid and ice in mixed-phase clouds as a function of temperature is removed, and ice supersaturation is allowed. The predicted ice water content in the modified CAM3 is in better agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data than that in the standard CAM3. The cirrus cloud fraction near the tropical tropopause, which is underestimated in the standard CAM3 as revealed through comparison with the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) data, is increased by 20%–30%, and the cold temperature bias there is reduced by 1–2 K. However, an increase in the cloud fraction in polar regions makes the underestimation (by ∼20 W m-2) of downwelling shortwave radiation in the standard CAM3 even worse. A sensitivity test reducing the threshold relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) for heterogeneous ice nucleation from 120% to 105% (representing nearly perfect ice nuclei) increases the global cloud cover by 1.4%, temperature near the tropical tropopause by 4–5 K, and water vapor in the stratosphere by 50%–80%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors analyze 105 yr (1901–2005) of tropical cyclone strikes at 45 coastal locations from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine, with the primary objective of examining spatiotemporal patterns of storm activity. Interpretation of the data suggests that geographically, three focal points for activity are evident: south Florida, the Outer Banks of North Carolina, and the north-central Gulf Coast. Temporally, clusters of hyperactivity are evident in south Florida from the 1920s through the 1950s and then again during the most recent years. North Carolina was a region of enhanced activity in the 1950s and again in the 1990s. A more consistent rate of occurrence was found along the north-central Gulf Coast; the last two years, however, were active in this region. Return periods of tropical storm strength systems or greater range from a frequency of once every 2 yr along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, every three years on average in southeast Texas, southeastern Louisiana, and southern Florida, and about once every 10–15 yr in northern New England. Hurricane return periods range from 5 yr in southern Florida to 105+ years at several sheltered portions of the coastline (e.g., near Cedar Key, Florida, Georgia, and the northeastern seaboard), where some locations experienced only one strike, or no strikes through the entire period of record. Severe hurricane (category 3–5) return periods range from once every 15 yr in South Florida to 105+ in New England. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two different versions of the operational setup of HIRLAM (High-Resolution Limited-Area Model) at the Finnish Meteorological Institute are exploited in order to verify wind forecasts in the eastern coast of the Gulf of Bothnia. Two cases of interest are studied in detail by also making use of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)-Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model (MM5) and a nonhydrostatic version of HIRLAM. Simulations are carried out in both models applied at three horizontal resolutions. The model' sea-land distributions play an essential role in the interpretation of the accuracy of wind speed forecasting. Considering wind direction, all experiments display similar systematic discrepancies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study implements a new land-cover classification and surface albedo from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) and investigates its effects on regional near-surface atmospheric state variables as well as the planetary boundary layer evolution for two dissimilar U.S. regions. Surface parameter datasets are determined by translating the 17-category MODIS classes into the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Simple Biosphere (SiB) categories available for use in MM5. Changes in land-cover specification or associated parameters affected surface wind, temperature, and humidity fields, which, in turn, resulted in perceivable alterations in the evolving structure of the planetary boundary layer. Inclusion of the MODIS albedo into the simulations enhanced these impacts further. Area-averaged comparisons with ground measurements showed remarkable improvements in near-surface temperature and humidity at both study areas when MM5 is initialized with MODIS land-cover and albedo data. Influence of both MODIS surface datasets is more significant at a semiarid location in the southwest of the United States than it is in a humid location in the mid-Atlantic region. Intense summertime surface heating at the semiarid location creates favorable conditions for strong land surface forcing. For example, when the simulations include MODIS land cover and MODIS albedo, respective error reduction rates were 6% and 11% in temperature and 2% and 2.5% in humidity in the southwest of the United States. Error reduction rates in near-surface atmospheric fields are considered important in the design of mesoscale weather simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An enhanced National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) integrated sounding system (ISS) was deployed as part of the Vertical Transport and Mixing (VTMX) field experiment, which took place in October of 2000. The enhanced ISS was set up at the southern terminus of the Great Salt Lake Valley just north of a gap in the Traverse Range (TR), which separates the Great Salt Lake and Utah Lake basins. This location was chosen to sample the dynamic and thermodynamic properties of the flow as it passes over the TR separating the two basins. The enhanced ISS allowed for near-continuous sampling of the nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) and low-level winds associated with drainage flow through the gap in the TR. Diurnally varying winds were observed at the NCAR site on days characterized by weak synoptic forcing and limited cloud cover. A down-valley jet (DVJ) was observed on about 50% of the nights during VTMX, with the maximum winds usually occurring within 150 m of the surface. The DVJ was associated with abrupt warming at low levels as a result of downward mixing and vertical transport of warm air from the inversion layer above. Several processes were observed to contribute to vertical transport and mixing at the NCAR site. Pulses in the strength of the DVJ contributed to vertical transport by creating localized areas of low-level convergence. Gravity waves and Kelvin–Helmholtz waves, which facilitated vertical mixing near the surface and atop the DVJ, were observed with a sodar and an aerosol backscatter lidar that were deployed as part of the enhanced ISS. The nonlocal nature of the processes responsible for generating turbulence in strongly stratified surface layers in complex terrain confounds surface flux parameterizations typically used in mesoscale models that rely on Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. This finding has major implications for modeling NBL structure and drainage flows in regions of complex terrain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]