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Objectives: This paper examines the ethnic and gender differentials in high blood pressure (HBP), diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), arthritis and asthma among older people in Malaysia, and how these diseases along with other factors affect self-rated health. Differentials in the prevalence of non-communicable diseases among older people are examined in the context of socio-cultural perspectives in multi-ethnic Malaysia. Methods: Data for this paper are obtained from the 2004 Malaysian Population and Family Survey. The survey covered a nationally representative sample of 3,406 persons aged 50 and over, comprising three main ethnic groups (Malays, Chinese and Indians) and all other indigenous groups. Bivariate analyses and hierarchical logistic regression were used in the analyses. Results: Arthritis was the most common non-communicable disease (NCD), followed by HBP, diabetes, asthma and CHD. Older females were more likely than males to have arthritis and HBP, but males were more likely to have asthma. Diabetes and CHD were most prevalent among Indians, while arthritis and HBP were most prevalent among the Indigenous groups. Older people were more likely to report poor health if they suffered from NCD, especially CHD. Controlling for socio-economic, health and lifestyle factors, Chinese were least likely to report poor health, whereas Indians and Indigenous people were more likely to do so. Chinese that had HBP were more likely to report poor health compared to other ethnic groups with the same disease. Among those with arthritis, Indians were more likely to report poor health. Conclusion: Perceived health status and prevalence of arthritis, HBP, diabetes, asthma and CHD varied widely across ethnic groups. Promotion of healthy lifestyle, early detection and timely intervention of NCDs affecting different ethnic groups and gender with socio-cultural orientations would go a long way in alleviating the debilitating effects of the common NCDs among older people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Increasing walking and cycling, and reducing motorised transport, are health and environmental priorities. This paper examines levels and trends in the use of different commute modes in England and Wales, both overall and with respect to small-area deprivation. It also investigates whether commute modal share can serve as a proxy for travel behaviour more generally. Methods: 23.7 million adult commuters reported their usual main mode of travelling to work in the 2011 census in England and Wales; similar data were available for 1971–2001. Indices of Multiple Deprivation were used to characterise socio-economic patterning. The National Travel Survey (2002–2010) was used to examine correlations between commute modal share and modal share of total travel time. These correlations were calculated across 150 non-overlapping populations defined by region, year band and income. Results: Among commuters in 2011, 67.1% used private motorised transport as their usual main commute mode (−1.8 percentage-point change since 2001); 17.8% used public transport (+1.8% change); 10.9% walked (−0.1% change); and 3.1% cycled (+0.1% change). Walking and, to a marginal extent, cycling were more common among those from deprived areas, but these gradients had flattened over the previous decade to the point of having essentially disappeared for cycling. In the National Travel Survey, commute modal share and total modal share were reasonably highly correlated for private motorised transport (r = 0.94), public transport (r = 0.96), walking (r = 0.88 excluding London) and cycling (r = 0.77). Conclusions: England and Wales remain car-dependent, but the trends are slightly more encouraging. Unlike many health behaviours, it is more common for socio-economically disadvantaged groups to commute using physically active modes. This association is, however, weakening and may soon reverse for cycling. At a population level, commute modal share provides a reasonable proxy for broader travel patterns, enhancing the value of the census in characterising background trends and evaluating interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing appropriate risk messages during challenging situations like public health outbreaks is complicated. The focus of this paper is on how First Nations and Metis people in Manitoba, Canada, responded to the public health management of pandemic H1N1, using a focus group methodology (n = 23 focus groups). Focus group conversations explored participant reactions to messaging regarding the identification of H1N1 virus risk groups, the H1N1 vaccine and how priority groups to receive the vaccine were established. To better contextualize the intentions of public health professionals, key informant interviews (n = 20) were conducted with different health decision makers (e.g., public health officials, people responsible for communications, representatives from some First Nations and Metis self-governing organizations). While risk communication practice has improved, ‘one size’ messaging campaigns do not work effectively, particularly when communicating about who is most ‘at-risk’. Public health agencies need to pay more attention to the specific socio-economic, historical and cultural contexts of First Nations and Metis citizens when planning for, communicating and managing responses associated with pandemic outbreaks to better tailor both the messages and delivery. More attention is needed to directly engage First Nations and Metis communities in the development and dissemination of risk messaging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of network epidemiology's central assumptions is that the contact structure over which infectious diseases propagate can be represented as a static network. However, contacts are highly dynamic, changing at many time scales. In this paper, we investigate conceptually simple methods to construct static graphs for network epidemiology from temporal contact data. We evaluate these methods on empirical and synthetic model data. For almost all our cases, the network representation that captures most relevant information is a so-called exponential-threshold network. In these, each contact contributes with a weight decreasing exponentially with time, and there is an edge between a pair of vertices if the weight between them exceeds a threshold. Networks of aggregated contacts over an optimally chosen time window perform almost as good as the exponential-threshold networks. On the other hand, networks of accumulated contacts over the entire sampling time, and networks of concurrent partnerships, perform worse. We discuss these observations in the context of the temporal and topological structure of the data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of infectious diseases that are spread through direct contact have been proven to depend on the strength of community structure or modularity within the underlying network. It has been recently shown that weighted networks with similar modularity values may exhibit different mixing styles regarding the number of connections among communities and their respective weights. However, the effect of mixing style on epidemic behavior was still unclear. In this paper, we simulate the spread of disease within networks with different mixing styles: a dense-weak style (i.e., many edges among the communities with small weights) and a sparse-strong style (i.e., a few edges among the communities with large weights). Simulation results show that, with the same modularity: 1) the mixing style significantly influences the epidemic size, speed, pattern and immunization strategy; 2) the increase of the number of communities amplifies the effect of the mixing style; 3) when the mixing style changes from sparse-strong to dense-weak, there is a ‘saturation point’, after which the epidemic size and pattern become stable. We also provide a mean-field solution of the epidemic threshold and size on weighted community networks with arbitrary external and internal degree distribution. The solution explains the effect of the second moment of the degree distribution, and a symmetric effect of internal and external connections (incl. degree distribution and weight). Our study has both potential significance for designing more accurate metrics for the community structure and exploring diffusion dynamics on metapopulation networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the USA, the relationship between the legal availability of guns and the firearm-related homicide rate has been debated. It has been argued that unrestricted gun availability promotes the occurrence of firearm-induced homicides. It has also been pointed out that gun possession can protect potential victims when attacked. This paper provides a first mathematical analysis of this tradeoff, with the goal to steer the debate towards arguing about assumptions, statistics, and scientific methods. The model is based on a set of clearly defined assumptions, which are supported by available statistical data, and is formulated axiomatically such that results do not depend on arbitrary mathematical expressions. According to this framework, two alternative scenarios can minimize the gun-related homicide rate: a ban of private firearms possession, or a policy allowing the general population to carry guns. Importantly, the model identifies the crucial parameters that determine which policy minimizes the death rate, and thus serves as a guide for the design of future epidemiological studies. The parameters that need to be measured include the fraction of offenders that illegally possess a gun, the degree of protection provided by gun ownership, and the fraction of the population who take up their right to own a gun and carry it when attacked. Limited data available in the literature were used to demonstrate how the model can be parameterized, and this preliminary analysis suggests that a ban of private firearm possession, or possibly a partial reduction in gun availability, might lower the rate of firearm-induced homicides. This, however, should not be seen as a policy recommendation, due to the limited data available to inform and parameterize the model. However, the model clearly defines what needs to be measured, and provides a basis for a scientific discussion about assumptions and data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Although male circumcision (MC) is recommended as an HIV prevention option, the religious, cultural and biomedical dimensions of its feasibility, acceptability and practice in India have not been explored till date. This study explores beliefs, experiences and understanding of the community and healthcare providers (HCPs) about adult MC as an HIV prevention option in India. Methods: This qualitative study covered 134 in-depth interviews from Belgaum, Kolkata, Meerut and Mumbai cities of India. Of these, 62 respondents were the members of circumcising (CC)/non-circumcising communities (NCC); including medically and traditionally circumcised men, parents of circumcised children, spouses of circumcised men, and religious clerics. Additionally, 58 registered healthcare providers (RHCPs) such as general and pediatric surgeons, pediatricians, skin and venereal disease specialists, general practitioners, and operation theatre nurses were interviewed. Fourteen traditional circumcisers were also interviewed. The data were coded and analyzed in QSR NUD*IST ver. 6.0. The study has not explored the participants' views about neonatal versus adult circumcision. Results: Members of CC/NCC, traditional circumcisers and RCHPs expressed sharp religious sensitivities around the issue of MC. Six themes emerged: Male circumcision as the religious rite; Multiple meanings of MC: MC for ‘religious identity/privilege/sacrifice’ or ‘hygiene’; MC inflicts pain and cost; Medical indications outweigh faith; Hesitation exists in accepting ‘foreign’ evidence supporting MC; and communication is the key for acceptance of MCs. Medical indications could make members of NCC accept MC following appropriate counseling. Majority of the RHCPs demanded local in-country evidence. Conclusion: HCPs must educate high-risk groups regarding the preventive and therapeutic role of MC. Communities need to discuss and create new social norms about male circumcision for better societal acceptance especially among the NCC. Feasibility studies on MC as an individual specific option for the high risk groups in health care setting needs to be explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Social support has been widely known as a protective factor for the emotional well-being (EWB) of older adults, but less studies have investigated the roles of different sources of social support (i.e., family and friend support) on different facets of EWB (i.e., positive affect and negative affect) simultaneously. Methodology and Findings: In this study, the associations between family/friend support and positive/negative affect were investigated in a sample of 700 Chinese elderly. The EWB and social support were measured with a 12-item affective wordlist (Kahneman et al., 2004) and a self-prepared questionnaire. The results showed that (1) the order of contact frequency and mutual support followed a hierarchical order from spouse, children, to friends; (2) zero-order correlations of both family support and friend support were associated with more positive affect and less negative affect; and when compared with the relative role of family and friend support, (3) spouse (children if spouse is not available) support had greater contribution on decreasing negative affect, while friend support had greater influence on increasing positive affect, even after controlling the demographic, self-rated health and life events variables. Conclusion: Family and friend support play different roles on the two facets of EWB of the elderly. These results were better explained in light of the task specificity model rather than the hierarchical compensatory model. Moreover, positive affect may be enhanced by friend support (based on personal interests and selectable) rather than family support (bonded by kinship and not selectable), which added evidences to the socioemotional selectivity theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To investigate socioeconomic inequalities in a comprehensive set of health indicators among persons with spinal cord injury in a wealthy country, Switzerland. Methods: Observational cross-sectional data from 1549 participants of the Swiss Spinal Cord Injury Cohort Study (SwiSCI), aged over 16 years, and living in Switzerland were analyzed. Socioeconomic circumstances were operationalized by years of formal education, net equivalent household income and financial hardship. Health indicators including secondary conditions, comorbidities, pain, mental health, participation and quality of life were used as outcomes. Associations between socioeconomic circumstances and health indicators were evaluated using ordinal regressions. Results: Financial hardship was consistently associated with more secondary conditions (OR 3.37, 95% CI 2.18–5.21), comorbidities (OR 2.88, 95% CI 1.83–4.53) and pain (OR 3.32, 95% CI 2.21–4.99), whereas mental health (OR 0.23, 95% CI 0.15–0.36), participation (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.21–0.43) and quality of life (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.15–0.33) were reduced. Persons with higher education reported better mental health (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00–1.07) and higher quality of life (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02–1.09); other health indicators were not associated with education. Household income was not related to any of the studied health indicators when models were controlled for financial hardship. Conclusions: Suffering from financial hardship goes along with significant reductions in physical health, functioning and quality of life, even in a wealthy country with comprehensive social and health policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Adverse lifestyle factors have been associated with increased mortality, but data are lacking on their combined effect in developing populations, which we address in the present study. Methods: In a death registry-based, case-control study among Hong Kong Chinese aged 30+y, proxy-reported lifestyle factors 10 y ago were collected for 21,363 cases (81% of all deaths) and 12,048 living controls. Risks associated with poor diet, inactivity, heavy alcohol intake, and smoking for all-cause and cause-specific mortality, adjusting for potential confounders, were determined, and excess deaths for the Chinese population were calculated. Results: Adjusted odds ratios for all-cause mortality were 1.15 (95% CI 1.09, 1.23), 1.34 (1.27, 1.43), 1.36 (1.21, 1.52), and 1.58 (1.46, 1.70) for poor diet, inactivity, heavy alcohol intake and smoking, respectively. Increasing numbers of adverse lifestyle factors were associated with a dose-dependent increase in adjusted odds ratios of 1.30 (1.20, 1.40), 1.67 (1.54, 1.81), 2.32 (2.08, 2.60), and 3.85 (3.12, 4.75) for 1, 2, 3, and 4 risk factors relative to those with none. The population attributable fraction for all-cause, all-CVD and all-cancer mortality were 26.6%, 15.0%, and 32.1%, resulting in an excess of 2,017,541; 489,884; and 607,517 deaths annually, respectively. Although smoking was associated with the greatest excess loss of life (867,530), heavy drinking (680,466), and physical inactivity (678,317) were similarly important. Conclusion: Adverse lifestyle factors contribute to one quarter of all deaths in China. Improving lifestyle practices, particularly focussing on moderating alcohol intake and increasing activity, and smoking cessation are critical to reducing the lifestyle-associated health burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The prevalence of major depressive disorder (MDD) is higher in those with low levels of educational attainment, the unemployed and those with low social status. However the extent to which these factors cause MDD is unclear. Most of the available data comes from studies in developed countries, and these findings may not extrapolate to developing countries. Examining the relationship between MDD and socio economic status in China is likely to add to the debate because of the radical economic and social changes occurring in China over the last 30 years. Principal findings: We report results from 3,639 Chinese women with recurrent MDD and 3,800 controls. Highly significant odds ratios (ORs) were observed between MDD and full time employment (OR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.25–0.46, logP = 78), social status (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.77–0.87, logP = 13.3) and education attainment (OR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.86–0.90, logP = 6.8). We found a monotonic relationship between increasing age and increasing levels of educational attainment. Those with only primary school education have significantly more episodes of MDD (mean 6.5, P-value = 0.009) and have a clinically more severe disorder, while those with higher educational attainment are likely to manifest more comorbid anxiety disorders. Conclusions: In China lower socioeconomic position is associated with increased rates of MDD, as it is elsewhere in the world. Significantly more episodes of MDD occur among those with lower educational attainment (rather than longer episodes of disease), consistent with the hypothesis that the lower socioeconomic position increases the likelihood of developing MDD. The phenomenology of MDD varies according to the degree of educational attainment: higher educational attainment not only appears to protect against MDD but alters its presentation, to a more anxious phenotype. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To date, there are no known estimates of the prevalence of chronic kidney disease within Cambodia, the vast majority of whose citizens live in rural areas with limited access to renal replacement therapy. Methods: Observational analysis of patients from the Takeo province in Cambodia who presented to MoPoTsyo, a non-governmental organization, for screening and management of diabetes mellitus between 2010 and 2012 (n = 402; 75% females). Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using the CKD-Epi equation. Results: On average, women were younger, with a higher percentage of hypercholesterolemia but also high-density lipoprotein level. Men had a higher serum creatinine level (1.31 mg/dl) than that of women (1.13 mg/dl) at 95% CI. More than half of all screened patients had a reduced eGFR; 60% (95% CI 55%, 65%) had an eGFR<60 ml/min/1.73 m2; 54% (49%, 59%) had an eGFR 30–60 ml/min/1.73 m2, and 5.7% (3.4%, 8.0%) with eGFR 15–30 ml/min/1.73 m2. Women had a greater prevalence of stage 3 CKD (57% women vs. 47% men) and stage 4 CKD (7.0% vs. 2.0%). The adjusted odds ratio for females compared to males having an eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 was 3.19 (95% CI 1.78, 5.43; p value<0.001). Thirty-two percent of patients lost ≥5 ml/min/1.73 m2 eGFR during median follow-up time of 433 days (IQR 462 days) days. Conclusions: Over one-half of Cambodians with diabetes mellitus had reduced eGFR, implying a point-prevalence of chronic kidney disease of 1.2% in among adult Cambodians within the country. This high burden of kidney disease in a society that lacks universal access to renal replacement therapy underscores the importance of early diagnosis – a largely unmet need in Cambodia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Religion is an important underlying determinant of HIV spread in sub-Saharan Africa. However, little is known about how religion influences changes in HIV prevalence and associated sexual behaviours over time. Objectives: To compare changes in HIV prevalence between major religious groups in eastern Zimbabwe during a period of substantial HIV risk reduction (1998–2005) and to investigate whether variations observed can be explained by differences in behaviour change. Methods: We analysed serial cross-sectional data from two rounds of a longitudinal population survey in eastern Zimbabwe. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were developed to compare differences in sexual behaviour and HIV prevalence between religious groups and to investigate changes over time controlling for potential confounders. Results: Christian churches were the most popular religious grouping. Over time, Spiritualist churches increased in popularity and, for men, Traditional religion and no religion became less and more common, respectively. At baseline (1998–2000), HIV prevalence was higher in Traditionalists and in those with no religion than in people in Christian churches (men 26.7% and 23.8% vs. 17.5%, women: 35.4% and 37.5% vs. 24.1%). These effects were explained by differences in socio-demographic characteristics (for Traditional and men with no religion) or sexual behaviour (women with no religion). Spiritualist men (but not women) had lower HIV prevalence than Christians, after adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics (14.4% vs. 17.5%, aOR = 0.8), due to safer behaviour. HIV prevalence had fallen in all religious groups at follow-up (2003–2005). Odds of infection in Christians reduced relative to those in other religious groups for both sexes, effects that were mediated largely by greater reductions in sexual-risk behaviour and, possibly, for women, by patterns of conversion between churches. Conclusion: Variation in behavioural responses to HIV between the major church groupings has contributed to a change in the religious pattern of infection in eastern Zimbabwe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the 1980 to 2002 General Social Survey, a repeated cross-sectional study that has been linked to the National Death Index through 2008, this study examines the changing relationship between self-rated health and mortality. Research has established that self-rated health has exceptional predictive validity with respect to mortality, but this validity may be deteriorating in light of the rapid medicalization of seemingly superficial conditions and increasingly high expectations for good health. Yet the current study shows the validity of self-rated health is increasing over time. Individuals are apparently better at assessing their health in 2002 than they were in 1980 and, for this reason, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is considerably stronger across all levels of self-rated health. Several potential mechanisms for this increase are explored. More schooling and more cognitive ability increase the predictive validity of self-rated health, but neither of these influences explains the growing association between self-rated health and mortality. The association is also invariant to changing causes of death, including a decline in accidental deaths, which are, by definition, unanticipated by the individual. Using data from the final two waves of data, we find suggestive evidence that exposure to more health information is the driving force, but we also show that the source of information is very important. For example, the relationship between self-rated health and mortality is smaller among those who use the internet to find health information than among those who do not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the absence of reliable systems for registering rare types of vital events large surveys are required to measure changes in their rates. However some events such as maternal deaths are widely known about in the community. This study examined the utility of asking respondents about events in their neighbourhood as an efficient method for measuring relative rates of rare health events such as maternal and infant deaths. A survey was conducted in the health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) in Matlab, Bangladesh, which includes two areas with different health care regimes. Adult women were asked about any maternal deaths; multiple births; infant deaths, live births and some other events they knew of in a small specified area around their home. Agreement between HDSS records and survey responses was moderate or better (kappa≥0.44) for all the events and greatest for maternal deaths (kappa = 0.77) with 84% being reported. Most events were more likely to be reported if they were recent (p<0.05). Infant mortality rate in one area was 0.56 times that in the other which was well reflected by the ratio of survey results (0.53). Simulations were used to study the ability of the method to detect differences in maternal mortality ratio. These suggested that a sample size around 5000 would give 80% power to detect a 50% decrease from a baseline of 183 which compared well with an estimated sample size around 10 times larger using the direct sisterhood method. The findings suggest that the Neighbourhood Method has potential for monitoring relative differences between areas or changes over time in the rates of rare demographic events, requiring considerably smaller sample sizes than traditional methods. This raises the possibility for interventions to demonstrate real effects on outcomes such as maternal deaths where previously this was only feasible by indirect methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Studies examining the relation of information processing speed, as measured by reaction time, with mortality are scarce. We explored these associations in a representative sample of the US population. Methods: Participants were 5,134 adults (2,342 men) aged 20–59 years from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III, 1988–94). Results: Adjusted for age, sex, and ethnic minority status, a 1 SD slower reaction time was associated with a raised risk of mortality from all-causes (HR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.12, 1.39) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.17, 1.58). Having 1 SD more variable reaction time was also associated with greater risk of all-cause (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.19, 1.55) and CVD (HR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.33, 1.70) mortality. No associations were observed for cancer mortality. The magnitude of the relationships was comparable in size to established risk factors in this dataset, such as smoking. Interpretation: Alongside better-established risk factors, reaction time is associated with increased risk of premature death and cardiovascular disease. It is a candidate risk factor for all-cause and cause-specific mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While evidence of the contribution of racial discrimination to ethnic health disparities has increased significantly, there has been less research examining relationships between ascribed racial/ethnic categories and health. It has been hypothesized that in racially-stratified societies being assigned as belonging to the dominant racial/ethnic group may be associated with health advantage. This study aimed to investigate associations between socially-assigned ethnicity, self-identified ethnicity, and health, and to consider the role of self-reported experience of racial discrimination in any relationships between socially-assigned ethnicity and health. Methods: The study used data from the 2006/07 New Zealand Health Survey (n = 12,488), a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of adults 15 years and over. Racial discrimination was measured as reported individual-level experiences across five domains. Health outcome measures examined were self-reported general health and psychological distress. Results: The study identified varying levels of agreement between participants' self-identified and socially-assigned ethnicities. Individuals who reported both self-identifying and being socially-assigned as always belonging to the dominant European grouping tended to have more socioeconomic advantage and experience less racial discrimination. This group also had the highest odds of reporting optimal self-rated health and lower mean levels of psychological distress. These differences were attenuated in models adjusting for socioeconomic measures and individual-level racial discrimination. Conclusions: The results suggest health advantage accrues to individuals who self-identify and are socially-assigned as belonging to the dominant European ethnic grouping in New Zealand, operating in part through socioeconomic advantage and lower exposure to individual-level racial discrimination. This is consistent with the broader evidence of the negative impacts of racism on health and ethnic inequalities that result from the inequitable distribution of health determinants, the harm and chronic stress linked to experiences of racial discrimination, and via the processes and consequences of racialization at a societal level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Obstetric anal sphincter injury (OASIS) has been identified as a major preventable risk factor for anal incontinence. Objective: Aim was to measure national variation in incidence of OASIS by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: A retrospective population based case-control study using the data derived from the Finnish Medical Birth Register for the years 1991–2010. A total population of singleton vaginal births was reviewed. We calculated unadjusted incidences of OASIS stratified by SES and vaginal parity, and adjusted risks for OASIS in each social class, after controlling for parity, birthweight, mode of delivery, maternal age and maternal smoking. SES was recorded into five categories based on mother’s occupation at time of birth; upper white-collar workers such as physicians, lower white-collar workers such as nurses, blue-collar workers such as cleaners, others such as students, and cases with missing information. Results: Seven per thousand (6,404 of 980,733) singleton births were affected by OASIS. In nulliparae the incidence of OASIS was 18% higher (adjusted OR 1.18 95% CI 1.04−1.34) for upper white-collar workers and 12% higher (adjusted OR 1.12 95% CI 1.02−1.24) for lower white-collar workers compared with blue-collar workers. Among women in these higher SES groups, 40% of the excess OASIS risk was explained by age, non-smoking, birthweight and mode of delivery. Despite the large effect of SES on OASIS, inclusion of SES in multivariable models caused only small changes in estimated adjusted effects for other established risk factors. Conclusions: OASIS at the first vaginal delivery demonstrates a strong positive social gradient. Higher SES is associated with a number of risk factors for OASIS, including higher birthweight and non-smoking, but only 40% of the excess incidence is explained by these known risk factors. Further research should address other underlying causes including differences in lifestyle or environmental factors, and inequalities in healthcare provision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Drowning deaths are devastating and preventable. Public perception does not regard hot weather as a common scenario for drowning deaths. The objective of our study was to test the association between hot weather and drowning risk. Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective case-crossover analysis of all unintentional drowning deaths in Ontario, Canada from 1999 to 2009. Demographic data were obtained from the Office of the Chief Coroner. Weather data were obtained from Environment Canada. We used the pair-matched analytic approach for the case-crossover design to contrast the weather on the date of the drowning with the weather at the same location one week prior (control period). Results: We identified 1243 drowning deaths. The mean age was 40 years, 82% were male, and most events (71%) occurred in open water. The pair-matched analytic approach indicated that temperatures exceeding 30°C were associated with a 69% increase in the risk of outdoor drowning (OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.23–2.25, p = 0.001). For indoor drowning, however, temperatures exceeding 30°C were not associated with a statistically significant increase in the risk of drowning (OR = 1.50, 95% CI 0.53–4.21, p = 0.442). Adult men were specifically prone to drown in hot weather (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.19–2.34, p = 0.003) yet an apparent increase in risk extended to both genders and all age groups. Conclusion: Contrary to popular belief, hot weather rather than cold stormy weather increases the risk of drowning. An awareness of this risk might encourage greater use of drowning prevention strategies known to save lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Whereas German suicide rates had a clear decreasing tendency between 1991 and 2006, they increased from 2007 to 2010. Deeper analyses of suicide data might help to understand better this change. The aim of this study was to analyze 1) whether recent trends can be related to changes in specific suicide methods and diverge by gender and age; 2) whether the decrease of suicide rates before 2007 as well as the increase from 2007 to 2010 are driven by the same suicide method. Methods: Analyses were based on suicide data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany. For 1998–2010, 136.583 suicide cases of men and women with known age and suicide method could be identified. These data were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis, allowing identification of the best fitting point in time (“joinpoint”) at which the suicide rate significantly changes in magnitude or direction. Results: The national downward trend between 1998 and 2007 was mainly due to corresponding changes in self-poisoning by other means than drugs (e.g., pesticides) (annual percentage change (APC) ≤ −4.33), drowning (APC ≤ −2.73), hanging (APC ≤ −2.69) and suicides by firearms (APC ≤ −1.46) in both genders. Regarding the overall increase of age-adjusted suicide rates in Germany 2007–2010, mainly the increase of self-poisoning (e.g., by drugs) and “being overrun” (APC ≥ 1.50) contributed to this trend. Limitations: The true suicide rates might have been underestimated because of errors in the official death certificates. Conclusions: Increase in suicide rates in Germany since 2007 went along with corresponding changes for “being overrun” and “self-poisoning”. Copycat suicides following the railway suicide of the goalkeeper Robert Enke partly contributed to the results. Thus, prevention of Werther effects and limitation of the availability of high pack sizes for drugs are of special relevance for the reversal of this trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: People with intellectual disability have a higher prevalence of physical health problems but often experience disparities in accessing health care. In England, a number of legislative changes, policies and recommendations have been introduced to improve health care access for this population. The aim of this qualitative study was to examine the extent to which patients with intellectual disability and their carers experience discrimination or other barriers in accessing health services, and whether health care experiences have improved over the last decade years. Method and Main Findings: Twenty nine participants (14 patient and carer dyads, and one carer) took part in semi-structured interviews. The interviews were audio-taped and transcribed and analysed using thematic analysis. Eight themes were identified. Half the participants thought that the patient had been treated unfairly or had been discriminated against by health services. There were accounts of negative staff attitudes and behaviour, and failure of services to make reasonable adjustments. Other barriers included problems with communication, and accessing services because of lack of knowledge of local services and service eligibility issues; lack of support and involvement of carers; and language problems in participants from minority ethnic groups. Most participants were able to report at least one example of good practice in health care provision. Suggestions for improving services are presented. Conclusion: Despite some improvements to services as a result of health policies and recommendations, more progress is required to ensure that health services make reasonable adjustments to reduce both direct and indirect discrimination of people with intellectual disability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Two World Health Organization comparative assessments rated the quality of South Africa’s 1996 mortality data as low. Since then, focussed initiatives were introduced to improve civil registration and vital statistics. Furthermore, South African cause-of-death data are widely used by research and international development agencies as the basis for making estimates of cause-specific mortality in many African countries. It is hence important to assess the quality of more recent South African data. Methods: We employed nine criteria to evaluate the quality of civil registration mortality data. Four criteria were assessed by analysing 5.38 million deaths that occurred nationally from 1997–2007. For the remaining five criteria, we reviewed relevant legislation, data repositories, and reports to highlight developments which shaped the current status of these criteria. Findings: National mortality statistics from civil registration were rated satisfactory for coverage and completeness of death registration, temporal consistency, age/sex classification, timeliness, and sub-national availability. Epidemiological consistency could not be assessed conclusively as the model lacks the discriminatory power to enable an assessment for South Africa. Selected studies and the extent of ill-defined/non-specific codes suggest substantial shortcomings with single-cause data. The latter criterion and content validity were rated unsatisfactory. Conclusion: In a region marred by mortality data absences and deficiencies, this analysis signifies optimism by revealing considerable progress from a dysfunctional mortality data system to one that offers all-cause mortality data that can be adjusted for demographic and health analysis. Additionally, timely and disaggregated single-cause data are available, certified and coded according to international standards. However, without skillfully estimating adjustments for biases, a considerable confidence gap remains for single-cause data to inform local health planning, or to fill gaps in sparse-data countries on the continent. Improving the accuracy of single-cause data will be a critical contribution to the epidemiologic and population health evidence base in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: We examined temporal trends, spatial variation, and gender differences in rates of hospitalization due to acute myocardial infarction. Methods: We used data from the Centers for Disease Control National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network to evaluate temporal trends, geographic variation, and gender differences in 20 Environmental Public Health Tracking Network states from 2000 to 2008. A longitudinal linear mixed effects model was fitted to the acute myocardial infarction hospitalization rates for the states and counties within each state to examine the overall temporal trend. Results: There was a significant overall decrease in age-adjusted acute myocardial infarction hospitalization rates between 2000 and 2008, with most states showing over a 20% decline during the period. The ratio of male/female rates for acute myocardial infarction hospitalization rates remained relatively consistent over time, approximately two-fold higher in men compared to women. A large geographic variability was found for age-adjusted acute myocardial infarction hospitalization rates, with the highest rates found in the Northeastern states. Results of two ecological analyses revealed that the NE region remained significantly associated with increased AMI hospitalization rates after adjustment for socio-demographic factors. Conclusions: This investigation is one of the first to explore geographic differences in AMI age adjusted hospital rates in individuals 35+ years of age for 2000–2008. We showed a decreasing trend in AMI hospitalization rates in men and women. A large geographic variability in rates was found with particularly higher rates in the New England/Mid-Atlantic region of the US and lower rates in the mountain and Pacific states of the tracking network. It appeared that over time this disparity in rates became less notable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Measurement of the level and composition of maternal mortality depends on the definition used, with inconsistencies leading to inflated rates and invalid comparisons across settings. This study investigates the differences in risk of death for women in their reproductive years during and outside the maternal risk period (pregnancy, delivery, puerperium), focusing on specific causes of infectious, non-communicable and external causes of death after separating out direct obstetrical causes. Methods: Data on all deaths of women aged 15–49 years that occurred in the Agincourt sub-district between 1992 and 2010 were obtained from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (HDSS) located in rural South Africa. Causes of death were assessed using a validated verbal autopsy instrument. Analysis included 2170 deaths, of which 137 occurred during the maternal risk period. Findings: Overall, women had significantly lower mortality during the maternal risk period than outside it (age-standardized RR = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.63–0.89). This was true in most age groups with the exception of adolescents aged 15–19 years where the risk of death was higher. Mortality from most causes, other than obstetric causes, was lower during the maternal risk period except for malaria, cardiovascular diseases and violence where there were no differences. Lower mortality was significant for HIV/AIDS (RR = 0.29, P<0.0001), cancers (RR = 0.10, P<0.023), and accidents (RR = 0, P<0.0001). Interpretation: In this rural setting typical of much of Southern Africa, pregnancy was largely protective against the risk of death, most likely because of a strong selection effect amongst those women who conceived successfully. The concept of indirect cause of maternal death needs to be re-examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: HIV prevalence differs by more than an order of magnitude between South Africa's racial groups. Comparing the sexual behaviors and other risk factors for HIV transmission between the different races may shed light on the determinants of South Africa's generalized HIV epidemic. Methods: Five nationally representative and one city-representative population-based surveys of sexual behavior were used to assess the extent to which various risk factors co-varied with HIV prevalence by race in South Africa. Results: In 2004, the prevalence of HIV was 0.5%, 1%, 3.2% and 19.9% in 15–49 year old whites, Indians, coloureds and blacks respectively. The risk factors which co-varied with HIV prevalence by race in the six surveys were age of sexual debut (in five out of five surveys for men and three out of six surveys for women), age gap (zero surveys in men and three in women), mean number of sex partners in the previous year (five surveys in men and three in women) and concurrent partnerships (five surveys in men and one in women). Condom usage and circumcision were both more prevalent in the high HIV prevalence groups. The reported prevalence of concurrency was 6 to 17 times higher in the black as opposed to the white men in the five surveys. Conclusions: The differences in sexual behavior in general, and the prevalence of concurrency and the number of sexual partners in particular, offer a plausible and parsimonious cause to explain a part of the differing prevalences of HIV between South Africa's racial groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To investigate the awareness of, and willingness to use, HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP), and willingness to take part in a PrEP study among gay and bisexual men in Scotland. Methods: Cross-sectional survey of 17 gay commercial venues in Glasgow and Edinburgh in May 2011 (N = 1515, 65.2% response rate); 1393 are included in the analyses. Results: Just under one-third of participants had heard of PrEP (n = 434; 31.2%), with awareness associated with being aged older than 35 years, talking to UAI partners about HIV, and with having had an HIV or STI test in the previous 12 months. Around half were willing to take part in a PrEP study (n = 695; 49.9%) or to take PrEP on a daily basis (n = 756; 54.3%). In multivariate analysis, willingness to take PrEP was associated with lower levels of education, regular gay scene attendance, ‘high-risk’ unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) and testing for HIV or STI in the previous 12 months. Reasons for not wanting to participate in a PrEP study or take PrEP included perceptions of low personal risk of HIV and concerns with using medication as an HIV prevention method. Conclusions: There is a willingness to engage in new forms of HIV prevention and research amongst a significant number of gay and bisexual men in Scotland. Future biomedical HIV interventions need to consider the links between sexual risk behaviour, testing, and potential PrEP use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite advances in our understanding of the countercyclical association between economic contraction and suicide, less is known about the levels of and changes in inequalities in suicide. The authors examined social and geographical inequalities in suicide in Japan from 1975 through 2005. Methods: Based on quinquennial vital statistics and census data, the authors analyzed the entire population aged 25–64 years. The total number of suicides was 75,840 men and 30,487 women. For each sex, the authors estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% credible intervals (CIs) for suicide using multilevel logistic regression models with “cells” (cross-tabulated by age and occupation) at level 1, seven different years at level 2, and 47 prefectures at level 3. Prefecture-level variance was used as an estimate of geographical inequalities in suicide. Results: Adjusting for age and time-trends, the lowest odds for suicide was observed among production process and related workers (the reference group) in both sexes. The highest OR for men was 2.52 (95% CI: 2.43, 2.61) among service workers, whereas the highest OR for women was 9.24 (95% CI: 7.03, 12.13) among security workers. The degree of occupational inequalities increased among men with a striking change in the pattern. Among women, we observed a steady decline in suicide risk across all occupations, except for administrative and managerial workers and transport and communication workers. After adjusting for individual age, occupation, and time-trends, prefecture-specific ORs ranged from 0.76 (Nara Prefecture) to 1.36 (Akita Prefecture) for men and from 0.79 (Kanagawa Prefecture) to 1.22 (Akita Prefecture) for women. Geographical inequalities have increased primarily among men since 1995. Conclusions: The present findings demonstrate a striking temporal change in the pattern of social inequalities in suicide among men. Further, geographical inequalities in suicide have considerably increased across 47 prefectures, primarily among men, since 1995. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prior research shows that work in agriculture and construction/extraction occupations increases the risk of environmental heat-associated death. Purpose: To assess the risk of environmental heat-associated death by occupation. Methods: This was a case-control study. Cases were heat-caused and heat-related deaths occurring from May-October during the period 2002–2009 in Maricopa County, Arizona. Controls were selected at random from non-heat-associated deaths during the same period in Maricopa County. Information on occupation, age, sex, and race-ethnicity was obtained from death certificates. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios for heat-associated death. Results: There were 444 cases of heat-associated deaths in adults (18+ years) and 925 adult controls. Of heat-associated deaths, 332 (75%) occurred in men; a construction/extraction or agriculture occupation was described on the death certificate in 115 (35%) of these men. In men, the age-adjusted odds ratios for heat-associated death were 2.32 (95% confidence interval 1.55, 3.48) in association with construction/extraction and 3.50 (95% confidence interval 1.94, 6.32) in association with agriculture occupations. The odds ratio for heat-associated death was 10.17 (95% confidence interval 5.38, 19.23) in men with unknown occupation. In women, the age-adjusted odds ratio for heat-associated death was 6.32 (95% confidence interval 1.48, 27.08) in association with unknown occupation. Men age 65 years and older in agriculture occupations were at especially high risk of heat-associated death. Conclusion: The occurrence of environmental heat-associated death in men in agriculture and construction/extraction occupations in a setting with predictable periods of high summer temperatures presents opportunities for prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The objectives of this study are to develop a summary measure of risky sexual practice and examine the factors associated with this among female sex workers (FSWs) in Karnataka, India. Materials and Methods: Data were drawn from special behavioral surveys (SBS) conducted in 2007 among 577 FSWs in two districts of Karnataka, India: Belgaum and Bangalore. FSWs were recruited using the two-stage probability sampling design. FSWs' sexual practice was considered risky if they reported inconsistent condom use with any sexual partner and reported experience of one of the following vulnerabilities to HIV risk: anal sex, alcohol consumption prior to sex and concurrent sexual relationships. Results: About 51% of FSWs had engaged in risky sexual practice. The odds of engaging in risky sex were higher among FSWs who were older (35+ years) than younger (18–25 years) (58% vs. 45%, Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2–3.4), who were currently married than never married (61% vs. 51%, AOR: 4.8, 95% CI: 2.5–9.3), who were in sex work for 10+ years than those who were in sex work for less than five years (66% vs. 39%, AOR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.6–4.2), and who had sex with 3+ clients/day than those who had sex with fewer clients (67% vs. 38%, AOR: 3.7, 95% CI:2.5–5.5). Conclusion: FSWs who are older, currently married, practicing sex work for longer duration and with higher clientele were more likely to engage in risky sexual practices. HIV prevention programs should develop strategies to reach these most-at risk group of FSWs to optimize the effectiveness of such programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Research has shown that individuals reporting a low level of adjustment latitude, defined as having few possibilities to temporarily adjust work demands to illness, have a higher risk of sick leave. To what extent lack of adjustment latitude influences the individual when making the decision to take sick leave is unknown. We hypothesize that ill individuals are more likely to take sick leave on days when they experience a lack of adjustment latitude at work than on days with access to adjustment latitude. Methods: A case-crossover design was applied to 546 sick-leave spells, extracted from a cohort of 1 430 employees at six Swedish workplaces, with a 3–12 month follow-up of all new sick-leave spells. Exposure to lack of adjustment latitude on the first sick-leave day was compared with exposure during several types of control periods sampled from the previous two months for the same individual. Results: Only 35% of the respondents reported variations in access to adjustment latitude, and 19% reported a constant lack of adjustment latitude during the two weeks prior to the sick-leave spell. Among those that did report variation, the risk of sick leave was lower on days with lack of adjustment latitude, than on days with access (Odds Ratio 0.36, 95% Confidence Interval 0.25–0.52). Conclusions: This is the first study to show the influence of adjustment latitude on the decision to take sick leave. Among those with variations in exposure, lack of adjustment latitude was a deterrent of sick leave, which is contrary to the à priori hypothesis. These results indicate that adjustment latitude may not only capture long-lasting effects of a flexible working environment, but also temporary possibilities to adjust work to being absent. Further studies are needed to disentangle the causal mechanisms of adjustment latitude on sick-leave. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Suicide is not only an individual phenomenon, but it is also influenced by social and environmental factors. With the high suicide rate and the abundance of social media data in South Korea, we have studied the potential of this new medium for predicting completed suicide at the population level. We tested two social media variables (suicide-related and dysphoria-related weblog entries) along with classical social, economic and meteorological variables as predictors of suicide over 3 years (2008 through 2010). Both social media variables were powerfully associated with suicide frequency. The suicide variable displayed high variability and was reactive to celebrity suicide events, while the dysphoria variable showed longer secular trends, with lower variability. We interpret these as reflections of social affect and social mood, respectively. In the final multivariate model, the two social media variables, especially the dysphoria variable, displaced two classical economic predictors – consumer price index and unemployment rate. The prediction model developed with the 2-year training data set (2008 through 2009) was validated in the data for 2010 and was robust in a sensitivity analysis controlling for celebrity suicide effects. These results indicate that social media data may be of value in national suicide forecasting and prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Associations between socio-economic status (SES), personality and inflammation were examined to determine whether low SES subjects scoring high on neuroticism or hostility might suffer relatively higher levels of inflammation than affluent subjects. Methods: In a cross-sectional design, 666 subjects were recruited from areas of high (most deprived – “MD”) and low (least deprived – “LD”) deprivation. IL-6, ICAM-1, CRP and fibrinogen were measured along with demographic and health-behaviour variables, and personality traits of neuroticism, extraversion and psychoticism (hostility). Regression models assessed the prediction of inflammation as a function of personality, deprivation and their interaction. Results: Levels of CRP and IL-6 were an increasing function of neuroticism and extraversion only in LD subjects opposite trends were seen in MD subjects. The result was ascribed parsimoniously to an inflammatory ceiling effect or, more speculatively, to SES-related health-behaviour differences. Psychoticism was strongly associated with ICAM-1 in both MD and LD subjects. Conclusions: The association between neuroticism, CRP and IL-6 may be reduced in MD subjects confirming speculation that the association differs across population sub-groups. The association between psychoticism and ICAM-1 supports evidence that hostility has adverse effects upon the endothelium, with consequences for cardiovascular health. Health interventions may be more effective by accounting for personality-related effects upon biological processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Making treatment decisions in anticipation of possible future incapacity is an important part of patient participation in end-of-life decision-making. This study estimates and compares the prevalence of GP-patient end-of-life treatment discussions and patients’ appointment of surrogate decision-makers in Italy, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands and examines associated factors. Methods: A cross-sectional, retrospective survey was conducted with representative GP networks in four countries. GPs recorded the health and care characteristics in the last three months of life of 4,396 patients who died non-suddenly. Prevalences were estimated and logistic regressions were used to examine between country differences and country-specific associated patient and care factors. Results: GP-patient discussion of treatment preferences occurred for 10%, 7%, 25% and 47% of Italian, Spanish, Belgian and of Dutch patients respectively. Furthermore, 6%, 5%, 16% and 29% of Italian, Spanish, Belgian and Dutch patients had a surrogate decision-maker. Despite some country-specific differences, previous GP-patient discussion of primary diagnosis, more frequent GP contact, GP provision of palliative care, the importance of palliative care as a treatment aim and place of death were positively associated with preference discussions or surrogate appointments. A diagnosis of dementia was negatively associated with preference discussions and surrogate appointments. Conclusions: The study revealed a higher prevalence of treatment preference discussions and surrogate appointments in the two northern compared to the two southern European countries. Factors associated with preference discussions and surrogate appointments suggest that delaying diagnosis discussions impedes anticipatory planning, whereas early preference discussions, particularly for dementia patients, and the provision of palliative care encourage participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The recent World Report on Disability highlighted violence as a leading cause of morbidity among disabled people. However, we know little about the extent to which people with disability experience different violence types, and associated health/economic costs. The recent introduction of disability measures into the England&Wales victimization survey provided an opportunity to address this gap. Methods and Findings: Analysis of the 2009/10 British Crime Survey (BCS), a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of 44,398 adults living in residential households in England&Wales. Using multivariate logistic regression, we estimated the relative odds of being a victim of past-year violence (physical/sexual domestic or non-domestic violence) in people with disability compared to those without, after adjusting for socio-demographics, behavioural and area confounders. 1256/44398(2.4%) participants had one or more disabilities including mental illness (‘mental illness’) and 7781(13.9%) had one or more disabilities excluding mental illness (‘non-mental disability’). Compared with the non-disabled, those with mental illness had adjusted relative odds (aOR) of 3.0(95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3–3.8) and those with non-mental disability had aOR of 1.8(95% CI: 1.5–2.2) of being a victim of past-year violence (with similar relative odds for domestic and non-domestic violence). Disabled victims were more likely to suffer mental ill health as a result of violence than non-disabled victims. The proportion of violence that could be attributed to the independent effect of disability in the general population was 7.5%(CI 5.7–9.3%), at an estimated cost of £1.51 billion. The main study limitation is the exclusion of institutionalised people with disability. Conclusions: People with disability are at increased risk of being victims of domestic and non-domestic violence, and of suffering mental ill health when victimized. The related public health and economic burden calls for an urgent assessment of the causes of this violence, and national policies on violence prevention in this vulnerable group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compared several techniques for assigning Hispanic ethnicity to records in data systems where this information may be missing, variously making use of country of origin, surname, race, and county of residence. We considered an algorithm in use by the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR), a variation of this developed by the authors, a “fast and frugal” algorithm developed with the aid of recursive partitioning methods, and conventional logistic regression. With the exception of logistic regression, each approach was rule-based: if specific criteria were met, an ethnicity assignment was made; otherwise, the next criterion was considered, until all records were assigned. We evaluated the algorithms on a sample of over 500,000 female clients from the New York State Cancer Services Program for whom self-reported Hispanic ethnicity was known. We found that all approaches yielded similarly high accuracy, sensitivity, and positive predictive value in all parts of the state, from areas with very low to very high Hispanic populations. An advantage of the fast and frugal method is that it consists of a small number of easily remembered steps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Determine the acceptability and epidemiological impact of increases in HIV testing in gay men in New South Wales (NSW), Australia– particularly pertinent when considering treatment as prevention and the need to reduce undiagnosed infections. Methods: We conducted an online survey and focus groups to assess whether increases in HIV testing would be acceptable to gay men in NSW. In parallel, we assessed the potential impact of increases in testing coverage and/or frequency using an individual-based model of HIV transmission. Results: If sexual practices and the rate of initiating HIV treatment are unchanged then increasing HIV testing reduces infections. Increasing testing frequency has the largest impact, with a 13.8% reduction in HIV infections over 10 years if the ∼55–75% of men who test at least once per year increased their testing frequency to four times per year. If testing levels decrease from current levels then we expect an increase in HIV infections with a sharply rising trend over time. Increasing HIV testing would be acceptable if testing was more convenient. However, only ∼25% of men surveyed were ‘very likely’ to increase their level of HIV testing. Men delayed or avoided testing due to the slowness in obtaining results and if they believed they had not put themselves at risk. Conclusions: An increase in HIV testing alone is unlikely to reduce HIV incidence substantially in NSW gay men– however, the relatively high testing levels need to continue to prevent an increase in HIV infections. In jurisdictions with lower levels of HIV testing, increases in testing coverage and frequency are likely to have a larger impact. Successful treatment as prevention interventions will require increases in testing rates; such increases would be acceptable to gay men in NSW but only if more convenient testing and rapid communication of results were available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]