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针对苯系物泄露次生突发环境事件的应急响应问题，研究了基于案例推理和处置效果的应急方案生成方法。首先，在计算案例相似度时，为避免历史案例不全产生的情景要素遗失，基于随机森林算法，结合专家知识构建了权重求解方法，采用案例检索方法得到相似案例集；然后，构建了应急处置效果评估指标体系，以全面评价相似案例对应的处置效果；进一步，考虑多专家评价可弥补决策者知识、经验等的不足，引入了自适应群共识调整算法，得到群体评价意见，通过集结相似度与处置效果，得到了方案的综合评价值并生成最优方案；最后，用算例说明了方法的可行性和有效性。

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