Bögemann, Sophie A; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9382-0769, Puhlmann, Lara M C; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0870-8770, Wackerhagen, Carolin; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5689-3472, Zerban, Matthias; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2684-3271, Riepenhausen, Antje; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8749-5349, Köber, Göran; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7038-0860, Yuen, Kenneth S L; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9465-9070, Pooseh, Shakoor; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5441-9507, Marciniak, Marta Anna; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4301-3269, Reppmann, Zala; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8633-9651, Uściƚko, Aleksandra; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0001-7190, Weermeijer, Jeroen; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6288-795X, Lenferink, Dionne B; https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1699-8315, Mituniewicz, Julian; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9717-5784, Robak, Natalia; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5482-3745, Donner, Nina C; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0548-1408, Mestdagh, Merijn; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5077-861X, Verdonck, Stijn; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2199-1072, van Dick, Rolf; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6308-9466, Kleim, Birgit; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9114-2917, Lieb, Klaus; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9609-4261, van Leeuwen, Judith M C; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7105-0038, Kobylińska, Dorota; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0184-2595, Myin-Germeys, Inez; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3731-4930, Walter, Henrik; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9403-6121, Tüscher, Oliver; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4023-5301, Hermans, Erno J; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1339-8639, Veer, Ilya M; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6733-3593, Kalisch, Raffael; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9503-7601, Bögemann, Sophie A; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9382-0769, Puhlmann, Lara M C; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0870-8770, Wackerhagen, Carolin; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5689-3472, Zerban, Matthias; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2684-3271, Riepenhausen, Antje; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8749-5349, Köber, Göran; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7038-0860, Yuen, Kenneth S L; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9465-9070, Pooseh, Shakoor; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5441-9507, Marciniak, Marta Anna; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4301-3269, Reppmann, Zala; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8633-9651, Uściƚko, Aleksandra; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0001-7190, Weermeijer, Jeroen; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6288-795X, Lenferink, Dionne B; https://orcid.org/0009-0009-1699-8315, Mituniewicz, Julian; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9717-5784, Robak, Natalia; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5482-3745, Donner, Nina C; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0548-1408, Mestdagh, Merijn; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5077-861X, Verdonck, Stijn; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2199-1072, van Dick, Rolf; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6308-9466, Kleim, Birgit; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9114-2917, Lieb, Klaus; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9609-4261, van Leeuwen, Judith M C; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7105-0038, Kobylińska, Dorota; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0184-2595, Myin-Germeys, Inez; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3731-4930, Walter, Henrik; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9403-6121, Tüscher, Oliver; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4023-5301, Hermans, Erno J; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1339-8639, Veer, Ilya M; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6733-3593, and Kalisch, Raffael; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9503-7601
Background Cross-sectional relationships between psychosocial resilience factors (RFs) and resilience, operationalized as the outcome of low mental health reactivity to stressor exposure (low “stressor reactivity” [SR]), were reported during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Objective Extending these findings, we here examined prospective relationships and weekly dynamics between the same RFs and SR in a longitudinal sample during the aftermath of the first wave in several European countries. Methods Over 5 weeks of app-based assessments, participants reported weekly stressor exposure, mental health problems, RFs, and demographic data in 1 of 6 different languages. As (partly) preregistered, hypotheses were tested cross-sectionally at baseline (N=558), and longitudinally (n=200), using mixed effects models and mediation analyses. Results RFs at baseline, including positive appraisal style (PAS), optimism (OPT), general self-efficacy (GSE), perceived good stress recovery (REC), and perceived social support (PSS), were negatively associated with SR scores, not only cross-sectionally (baseline SR scores; all P<.001) but also prospectively (average SR scores across subsequent weeks; positive appraisal (PA), P=.008; OPT, P<.001; GSE, P=.01; REC, P<.001; and PSS, P=.002). In both associations, PAS mediated the effects of PSS on SR (cross-sectionally: 95% CI –0.064 to –0.013; prospectively: 95% CI –0.074 to –0.0008). In the analyses of weekly RF-SR dynamics, the RFs PA of stressors generally and specifically related to the COVID-19 pandemic, and GSE were negatively associated with SR in a contemporaneous fashion (PA, P<.001; PAC,P=.03; and GSE, P<.001), but not in a lagged fashion (PA, P=.36; PAC, P=.52; and GSE, P=.06). Conclusions We identified psychological RFs that prospectively predict resilience and cofluctuate with weekly SR within individuals. These prospective results endorse that the previously reported RF-SR associations do not exclusively reflect