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The tick Ixodes ricinus is the vector of various pathogens, including Chlamydiales bacteria, which potentially cause respiratory infections. In this study, we modeled the spatial distribution of I. ricinus and associated Chlamydiales over Switzerland from 2009 to 2019. We used a total of 2,293 ticks and 186 Chlamydiales occurrences provided by a Swiss Army field campaign, a collaborative smartphone application, and a prospective campaign. For each tick location, we retrieved from Swiss federal data sets the environmental factors reflecting the topography, climate, and land cover. We then used the Maxent modeling technique to estimate the suitability of particular areas for I. ricinus and to subsequently build the nested niche of Chlamydiales bacteria. Results indicate that I. ricinus habitat suitability is determined by higher temperature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values, lower temperature during the driest months, and a higher percentage of artificial and forest areas. The performance of the model was improved when extracting the environmental variables for a 100-m radius buffer around the sampling points and when considering the climatic conditions of the 2 years previous to the sampling date. Chlamydiales bacteria were favored by a lower percentage of artificial surfaces, drier conditions, high precipitation during the coldest months, and short distances to wetlands. From 2009 to 2018, we observed an extension of areas suitable to ticks and Chlamydiales, associated with a shift toward higher altitude. The importance of considering spatiotemporal variations in the environmental conditions for obtaining better prediction was also demonstrated., IMPORTANCE Ixodes ricinus is the vector of pathogens including the agent of Lyme disease, the tick-borne encephalitis virus, and the less well-known Chlamydiales bacteria, which are responsible for certain respiratory infections. In this study, we identified the environmental factors influencing the presence of I. ricinus and Chlamydiales in Switzerland and generated maps of their distribution from 2009 to 2018. We found an important expansion of suitable areas for both the tick and the bacteria during the last decade. Results also provided the environmental factors that determine the presence of Chlamydiales within ticks. Distribution maps as generated here are expected to bring valuable information for decision makers in controlling tick-borne diseases in Switzerland and establishing prevention campaigns. The methodological framework presented could be used to predict the distribution and spread of other host-pathogen pairs to identify environmental factors driving their distribution and to develop control or prevention strategies accordingly.

The rate of aquatic invasions by planktonic organisms has increased considerably in recent decades. In order to effectively direct funding and resources to control the spread of such invasions, a methodological framework for identifying high-risk transport vectors, as well as ruling out vectors of lesser concern will be necessary. A number of estuarine ecosystems on the North American Pacific Northwest coast have experienced a series of high impact planktonic invasions that have slowly unfolded across the region in recent decades, most notably, that of the planktonic copepod crustacean Pseudodiaptomus inopinus. Although introduction of P. inopinus to the United States almost certainly occurred through the discharge of ballast water from commercial vessels originating in Asia (the species’ native range), the mechanisms and patterns of subsequent spread remain unknown. In order to elucidate the migration events shaping this invasion, we sampled the genomes of copepods from seven invasive and two native populations using restriction-site associated DNA sequencing. This genetic data was evaluated against spatially-explicit genetic simulation models to evaluate competing scenarios of invasion spread. Our results indicate that invasive populations of P. inopinus exhibit a geographically unstructured genetic composition, likely arising from infrequent and large migration events. This pattern of genetic patchiness was unexpected given the linear geographic structure of the sampled populations, and strongly contrasts with the clear invasion corridors observed in many aquatic systems.

To understand the geographical and temporal spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the first documented wave of infection in the state of Vaud, Switzerland, we analyzed clusters of positive cases using the precise residential location of 33,651 individuals tested (RT-PCR) between January 10 and June 30, 2020. We used a prospective Poisson space-time scan statistic (SaTScan) and a Modified Space–Time Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Application with Noise (MST-DBSCAN) to identify both space-time and transmission clusters, and estimated cluster duration, transmission behavior (emergence, growth, reduction, etc.) and relative risk. For each cluster, we computed the number of individuals, the median age of individuals and their viral load. Among the 1684 space-time clusters identified, 457 (27.1%) were significant (p ≤ 0.05), such that they harbored a higher relative risk of infection within the cluster than compared to regions outside the cluster. Clusters lasted a median of 11 days (IQR 7–13) and included a median of 12 individuals per cluster (IQR 5–20). The majority of significant clusters (n = 260; 56.9%) had at least one person with an extremely high viral load (>1 billion copies/ml). Those clusters were considerably larger (median of 17 infected individuals, p < 0.001) than clusters with individuals showing a viral load below 1 million copies/ml (median of three infected individuals). The highest viral loads were found in clusters with the lowest average age group considered in the investigation, while clusters with the highest average age had low to middle viral load. In 20 significant clusters, the viral load of the three first cases was below 100,000 copies/ml, suggesting that subjects with fewer than 100,000 copies/ml may still be contagious. Notably, the dynamics of transmission clusters made it possible to identify three diffusion zones, which predominantly differentiated between rural and urban areas, the latter being more prone to persistence and expansion, which may result in the emergence of new clusters nearby. The use of geographic information is key for public health decision makers in mitigating the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This study suggests that early localization of clusters may help implement targeted protective measures limiting the spread of the virus., Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image

International audience; Forecasting the colonization process is important for wildlife managers who supervise the reintroduction of endangered species or control the spread of invasive species. Patch connectivity is thus critical to predicting the fates of expanding populations. Connectivity in river networks results from river dendritic structure and dispersal modality of organisms. Both factors may strongly affect the colonization process and the efficiency of conservation action plans. Based on empirical data, we simulated, using a simplified model with limited number of parameters, the colonization of a large river network, the Loire River, by the native Eurasian beaver and the invasive African clawed frog. For each species, we inferred model parameters (dispersal behavior and distances) by comparing the simulated and the observed distributions. Using network theory, we evaluated the efficiency of alternative conservation strategies to prevent or promote colonization of the river network. Network robustness to fragmentation and disturbance was also assessed. The model accurately predicted > 70% of the observed species ranges. Conservation strategies that selectively protect habitat patches with the highest connectivity values provide a weak advantage at preventing connectivity loss compared to random protection strategies. In contrast, the targeted destruction of highly connected patches had a much stronger effect on the fragmentation of the network than the random removal of habitat patches. Spatial network topology strongly contributes to determining colonization patterns of large river watersheds. Network theory allows tests for robustness of rivers to fragmentation and disturbance, and identification of strategies for conservation planning.

A workshop recently held at the Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL, Switzerland) was dedicated to understanding the genetic basis of adaptive change, taking stock of the different approaches developed in theoretical population genetics and landscape genomics and bringing together knowledge accumulated in both research fields. Indeed, an important challenge in theoretical population genetics is to incorporate effects of demographic history and population structure. But important design problems (e.g. focus on populations as units, focus on hard selective sweeps, no hypothesis-based framework in the design of the statistical tests) reduce their capability of detecting adaptive genetic variation. In parallel, landscape genomics offers a solution to several of these problems and provides a number of advantages (e.g. fast computation, landscape heterogeneity integration). But the approach makes several implicit assumptions that should be carefully considered (e.g. selection has had enough time to create a functional relationship between the allele distribution and the environmental variable, or this functional relationship is assumed to be constant). To address the respective strengths and weaknesses mentioned above, the workshop brought together a panel of experts from both disciplines to present their work and discuss the relevance of combining these approaches, possibly resulting in a joint software solution in the future.

Many features of virus populations make them excellent candidates for population genetic study, including a very high rate of mutation, high levels of nucleotide diversity, exceptionally large census population sizes, and frequent positive selection. However, these attributes also mean that special care must be taken in population genetic inference. For example, highly skewed offspring distributions, frequent and severe population bottleneck events associated with infection and compartmentalization, and strong purifying selection all affect the distribution of genetic variation but are often not taken into account. Here, we draw particular attention to multiple-merger coalescent events and background selection, discuss potential misinference associated with these processes, and highlight potential avenues for better incorporating them into future population genetic analyses.

Self-incompatibility (SI), a reproductive system broadly present in plants, chordates, fungi, and protists, might be controlled by one or several multiallelic loci. How a transition in the number of SI loci can occur and the consequences of such events for the population's genetics and dynamics have not been studied theoretically. Here, we provide analytical descriptions of two transition mechanisms: linkage of the two SI loci (scenario 1) and the loss of function of one incompatibility gene within a mating type of a population with two SI loci (scenario 2). We show that invasion of populations by the new mating type form depends on whether the fitness of the new type is lowered, and on the allelic diversity of the SI loci and the recombination between the two SI loci in the starting population. Moreover, under scenario 1, it also depends on the frequency of the SI alleles that became linked. We demonstrate that, following invasion, complete transitions in the reproductive system occurs under scenario 2 and is predicted only for small populations under scenario 1. Interestingly, such events are associated with a drastic reduction in mating type number.

Although dispersal is recognized as a key issue in several fields of population biology (such as behavioral ecology, population genetics, metapopulation dynamics or evolutionary modeling), these disciplines focus on different aspects of the concept and often make different implicit assumptions regarding migration models. Using simulations, we investigate how such assumptions translate into effective gene flow and fixation probability of selected alleles. Assumptions regarding migration type (e.g. source-sink, resident pre-emption, or balanced dispersal) and patterns (e.g. stepping-stone versus island dispersal) have large impacts when demes differ in sizes or selective pressures. The effects of fragmentation, as well as the spatial localization of newly arising mutations, also strongly depend on migration type and patterns. Migration rate also matters: depending on the migration type, fixation probabilities at an intermediate migration rate may lie outside the range defined by the low- and high-migration limits when demes differ in sizes. Given the extreme sensitivity of fixation probability to characteristics of dispersal, we underline the importance of making explicit (and documenting empirically) the crucial ecological/ behavioral assumptions underlying migration models.

Ocean currents, prevailing winds, and the hierarchical structures of river networks are known to create asymmetries in re-colonization between habitat patches. The impacts of such asymmetries on metapopulation persistence are seldom considered, especially rarely in theoretical studies. Considering three classical models (the island, the stepping stone and the distance-dependent model), we explore how metapopulation persistence is affected by (i) asymmetry in dispersal strength, in which the colonization rate between two patches differs in direction, and (ii) asymmetry in connectivity, in which the overall colonization pattern displays asymmetry (circulating or dendritic networks). Viability can be drastically reduced when directional bias in dispersal strength is higher than 25%. Re-colonization patterns that allow for strong local connectivity provide the highest persistence compared to systems that allow circulation. Finally, asymmetry has relatively weak effects when metapopulations maintain strong general connectivity. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

International audience; We simulated a meta-population with random dispersal among demes but local mating within demes to investigate conditions under which a dominant female-determining gene W, with no individual selection advantage, can invade and become fixed in females, changing the population from male to female heterogamety. Starting with one mutant W in a single deme, the interaction of sex ratio selection and random genetic drift causes W to be fixed among females more often than a comparable neutral mutation with no influence on sex determination, even when YY males have slightly reduced viability. Meta-population structure and interdeme selection can also favour the fixation of W. The reverse transition from female to male heterogamety can also occur with higher probability than for a comparable neutral mutation. These results help to explain the involvement of sex-determining genes in the evolution of sex chromosomes and in sexual selection and speciation.

Genetic diversity is essential for population survival and adaptation to changing environments. Demographic processes (e.g., bottleneck and expansion) and spatial structure (e.g., migration, number, and size of populations) are known to shape the patterns of the genetic diversity of populations. However, the impact of temporal changes in migration on genetic diversity has seldom been considered, although such events might be the norm. Indeed, during the millions of years of a species’ lifetime, repeated isolation and reconnection of populations occur. Geological and climatic events alternately isolate and reconnect habitats. We analytically document the dynamics of genetic diversity after an abrupt change in migration given the mutation rate and the number and sizes of the populations. We demonstrate that during transient dynamics, genetic diversity can reach unexpectedly high values that can be maintained over thousands of generations. We discuss the consequences of such processes for the evolution of species based on standing genetic variation and how they can affect the reconstruction of a population’s demographic and evolutionary history from genetic data. Our results also provide guidelines for the use of genetic data for the conservation of natural populations.

International audience; Mating systems, that is, whether organisms give rise to progeny by selfing, inbreeding or outcrossing, strongly affect important ecological and evolutionary processes. Large variations in mating systems exist in fungi, allowing the study of their origin and consequences. In fungi, sexual incompatibility is determined by molecular recognition mechanisms, controlled by a single mating-type locus in most unifactorial fungi. In Basidiomycete fungi, however, which include rusts, smuts and mushrooms, a system has evolved in which incompatibility is controlled by two unlinked loci. This bifactorial system probably evolved from a unifactorial system. Multiple independent transitions back to a unifactorial system occurred. It is still unclear what force drove evolution and maintenance of these contrasting inheritance patterns that determine mating compatibility. Here, we give an overview of the evolutionary factors that might have driven the evolution of bifactoriality from a unifactorial system and the transitions back to unifactoriality. Bifactoriality most likely evolved for selfing avoidance. Subsequently, multiallelism at mating-type loci evolved through negative frequency-dependent selection by increasing the chance to find a compatible mate. Unifactoriality then evolved back in some species, possibly because either selfing was favoured or for increasing the chance to find a compatible mate in species with few alleles. Owing to the existence of closely related unifactorial and bifactorial species and the increasing knowledge of the genetic systems of the different mechanisms, Basidiomycetes provide an excellent model for studying the different forces that shape breeding systems.

Interspecific competition, life history traits, environmental heterogeneity and spatial structure as well as disturbance are known to impact the successful dispersal strategies in metacommunities. However, studies on the direction of impact of those factors on dispersal have yielded contradictory results and often considered only few competing dispersal strategies at the same time. We used a unifying modeling approach to contrast the combined effects of species traits (adult survival, specialization), environmental heterogeneity and structure (spatial autocorrelation, habitat availability) and disturbance on the selected, maintained and coexisting dispersal strategies in heterogeneous metacommunities. Using a negative exponential dispersal kernel, we allowed for variation of both species dispersal distance and dispersal rate. We showed that strong disturbance promotes species with high dispersal abilities, while low local adult survival and habitat availability select against them. Spatial autocorrelation favors species with higher dispersal ability when adult survival and disturbance rate are low, and selects against them in the opposite situation. Interestingly, several dispersal strategies coexist when disturbance and adult survival act in opposition, as for example when strong disturbance regime favors species with high dispersal abilities while low adult survival selects species with low dispersal. Our results unify apparently contradictory previous results and demonstrate that spatial structure, disturbance and adult survival determine the success and diversity of coexisting dispersal strategies in competing metacommunities.

The effect of heterogeneous environments upon the dynamics of invasion and the eradication or control of invasive species is poorly understood, although it is a major challenge for biodiversity conservation. Here, we first investigate how the probability and time for invasion are affected by spatial heterogeneity. Then, we study the effect of control program strategies (e.g. species specificity, spatial scale of action, detection and eradication efficiency) on the success and time of eradication. We find that heterogeneity increases both the invasion probability and the time to invasion. Heterogeneity also reduces the probability of eradication but does not change the time taken for successful eradication. We confirm that early detection of invasive species reduces the time until eradication, but we also demonstrate that this is true only if the local control action is sufficiently efficient. The criterion of removal efficiency is even more important for an eradication program than simply ensuring control effort when the invasive species is not abundant. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Host shifts can cause novel infectious diseases and is a key process in diversification. Disentangling the effects of host shift versus those of cospeciation is non trivial as both can result in phylogenic congruence. We develop a new framework based on network analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation to quantify host shift and cospeciation rates in host parasite systems. Our method enables estimation of the expected time to the next host shift or cospeciation event. We then apply it to avian haemosporidian parasite systems and to the pocket gophers chewing lice system and demonstrate that both host shift and co speciation can be reliably estimated by our method. We confirm that host shifts have shaped the evolutionary history of avian haemosporidian parasites and have played a minor role in the gopher–chewing lice system. Our method is promising for predicting the rate of potential host shifts and thus the emergence of novel infectious diseases.

International audience; Over the past two decades, an increasing amount of phylogeographic work has sub- stantially improved our understanding of African biogeography, in particular the role played by Pleistocene pluvial–drought cycles on terrestrial vertebrates. However, still little is known on the evolutionary history of semi-aquatic animals, which faced tre- mendous challenges imposed by unpredictable availability of water resources. In this study, we investigate the Late Pleistocene history of the common hippopotamus (Hip- popotamus amphibius), using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence variation and range-wide sampling. We documented a global demographic and spatial expansion approximately 0.1–0.3 Myr ago, most likely associated with an episode of massive drainage overflow. These events presumably enabled a historical continent-wide gene flow among hippopotamus populations, and hence, no clear continental-scale genetic structuring remains. Nevertheless, present-day hippopotamus populations are geneti- cally disconnected, probably as a result of the mid-Holocene aridification and contem- porary anthropogenic pressures. This unique pattern contrasts with the biogeographic paradigms established for savannah-adapted ungulate mammals and should be further investigated in other water-associated taxa. Our study has important consequences for the conservation of the hippo, an emblematic but threatened species that requires specific protection to curtail its long-term decline.

Ecological strategies are integral to understanding species survival in different environments. However, how habitat specialisation is involved in such strategies is not fully understood, particularly in heterogeneous and disturbed environments. Here, we studied the trait associations between specialisation, dispersal ability, competitiveness, reproductive investment and survival rate in a spatially explicit metacommunity model under various disturbance rates. Though no unique trait values were associated with specialisation, relationships were uncovered depending on environmental factors. We found strong trait associations mainly for generalist species, while specialist species exhibited a larger range of trait combinations. Trait associations were driven first by the disturbance rate and second by species’ dispersal ability and generation overlap. With disturbance, low dispersal ability was strongly selected against, for specialists as well as for generalists. Our results demonstrate that habitat specialisation is critical for the emergence of trait strategies in metacommunities and that disturbance in interaction with dispersal ability limits not only the range of trait values but also the type of possible trait associations.