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The De Vylder and Goovaerts conjecture is an open problem in risk theory, stating that the finite-time ruin probability in a standard risk model is greater than or equal to the corresponding ruin probability evaluated in an associated model with equalized claim amounts. Equalized means here that the jump sizes of the associated model are equal to the average jump in the initial model between 0 and a terminal time T.In this paper, we consider the diffusion approximations of both the standard risk model and its associated risk model. We prove that the associated model, when conveniently renormalized, converges in distribution to a Gaussian process satisfying a simple SDE. We then compute the probability that this diffusion hits the level 0 before time T and compare it with the same probability for the diffusion approximation for the standard risk model. We conclude that the De Vylder and Goovaerts conjecture holds for the diffusion limits.

International audience; We consider the problem of controlling the diffusion coefficient of a diffusion with constant negative drift rate such that the probability of hitting a given lower barrier up to some finite time horizon is minimized. We assume that the diffusion rate can be chosen in a progressively measurable way with values in the interval [0, 1]. We prove that the value function is regular, concave in the space variable, and that it solves the associated HJB equation. To do so, we show that the heat equation on a right triangle, with a boundary condition that is discontinuous in the corner, possesses a smooth solution.

We consider a variant of the basic problem of the calculus of variations, where the Lagrangian is convex and subject to randomness adapted to a Brownian filtration. We solve the problem by reducing it, via a limiting argument, to an unconstrained control problem that consists in finding an absolutely continuous process minimizing the expected sum of the Lagrangian and the deviation of the terminal state from a given target position. Using the Pontryagin maximum principle, we characterize a solution of the unconstrained control problem in terms of a fully coupled forward–backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE). We use the method of decoupling fields for proving that the FBSDE has a unique solution. We exploit a monotonicity property of the decoupling field for solving the original constrained problem and characterize its solution in terms of an FBSDE with a free backward part.

We provide a weak law of large numbers for arrays of nonnegative and pairwise negatively associated (in each row) random variables under a rather weak domination condition.

We determine the convergence speed of a numerical scheme for approximating one-dimensional continuous strong Markov processes. The scheme is based on the construction of coin tossing Markov chains whose laws can be embedded into the process with a sequence of stopping times. Under a mild condition on the process' speed measure we prove that the approximating Markov chains converge at fixed times at the rate of $1/4$ with respect to every $p$-th Wasserstein distance. For the convergence of paths, we prove any rate strictly smaller than $1/4$. Our results apply, in particular, to processes with irregular behavior such as solutions of SDEs with irregular coefficients and processes with sticky points., Comment: To appear in J. Math. Anal. Appl

We consider the problem of optimally stopping a continuous-time process with a stopping time satisfying a given expectation cost constraint. We show, by introducing a new state variable, that one can transform the problem into an unconstrained control problem and hence obtain a dynamic programming principle. We characterize the value function in terms of the dynamic programming equation, which turns out to be an elliptic, fully non-linear partial differential equation of second order. We prove a classical verification theorem and illustrate its applicability with several examples.

We study a stopping problem arising from a sequential testing of two simple hypotheses H0 and H1 on the drift rate of a Brownian motion. We impose an expectation constraint on the stopping rules allowed and show that an optimal stopping rule satisfying the constraint can be found among the rules of the following type: stop if the posterior probability for H1 attains a given lower or upper barrier; or stop if the posterior probability comes back to a fixed intermediate point after a sufficiently large excursion. Stopping at the intermediate point means that the testing is abandoned without accepting H0 or H1. In contrast to the unconstrained case, optimal stopping rules, in general, cannot be found among interval exit times. Thus, optimal stopping rules in the constrained case qualitatively differ from optimal rules in the unconstrained case.

We prove a functional limit theorem for Markov chains that, in each step, move up or down by a possibly state dependent constant with probability $1/2$, respectively. The theorem entails that the law of every one-dimensional regular continuous strong Markov process in natural scale can be approximated with such Markov chains arbitrarily well. The functional limit theorem applies, in particular, to Markov processes that cannot be characterized as solutions to stochastic differential equations. Our results allow to practically approximate such processes with irregular behavior; we illustrate this with Markov processes exhibiting sticky features, e.g., sticky Brownian motion and a Brownian motion slowed down on the Cantor set., To appear in Ann. Inst. Henri Poincar\'e Probab. Stat

We solve the Skorokhod embedding problem for a class of stochastic processes satisfying an inhomogeneous stochastic differential equation (SDE) of the form $d A_t =\mu (t, A_t) d t + \sigma(t, A_t) d W_t$. We provide sufficient conditions guaranteeing that for a given probability measure $\nu$ on $\mathbb{R}$ there exists a bounded stopping time $\tau$ and a real $a$ such that the solution $(A_t)$ of the SDE with initial value $a$ satisfies $A_\tau \sim \nu$. We hereby distinguish the cases where $(A_t)$ is a solution of the SDE in a weak or strong sense. Our construction of embedding stopping times is based on a solution of a fully coupled forward-backward SDE. We use the so-called method of decoupling fields for verifying that the FBSDE has a unique solution. Finally, we sketch an algorithm for putting our theoretical construction into practice and illustrate it with a numerical experiment., Comment: 39 pages, 2 pictures, To appear in Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincare (B) Probability and Statistics

We consider the problem of how to optimally close a large asset position in a market with a linear temporary price impact. We take the perspective of an agent who obtains a signal about the future price evolvement. By means of classical stochastic control we derive explicit formulas for the closing strategy that minimizes the expected execution costs. We compare agents observing the signal with agents who do not see it. We compute explicitly the expected additional gain due to the signal, and perform a comparative statics analysis.

We consider a diffusion control problem, where the controller totally determines the state's diffusion coefficient but has no influence on the state's drift rate. By using the Pontryagin maximum principle we characterize an optimal control in terms of the adjoint forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE), turning out to be fully coupled. We use the method of decoupling fields for proving that the adjoint FBSDE possesses a solution.

We consider the problem of maximizing the expected amount of time an exponential martingale spends above a constant threshold up to a finite time horizon. We assume that at any time the volatility of the martingale can be chosen to take any value between \(\sigma _1\) and \(\sigma _2\), where \(0 < \sigma _1 < \sigma _2\). The optimal control consists in choosing the minimal volatility \(\sigma _1\) when the process is above the threshold, and the maximal volatility if it is below. We give a rigorous proof using classical verification and provide integral formulas for the maximal expected occupation time above the threshold.

Soit $X_{1},X_{2},\ldots$ une suite de variables aleatoires independantes avec esperance $E(X_{i})=0$, et $Y^{N}_{k+1}=Y^{N}_{k}+a_{N}(Y^{N}_{k})X_{k+1}$ une marche aleatoire renormalisee avec une fonction $a_{N}:\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}_{+}$. On montre, sous certaines conditions legeres sur la loi de $X_{i}$, que l’on peut choisir le facteur $a_{N}$ d’une facon que $(Y^{N}_{\lfloor Nt\rfloor})_{t\in\mathbb{R}_{+}}$ converge en loi, quand $N$ tend vers l’infini, vers une diffusion $(M_{t})_{t\in\mathbb{R}_{+}}$ etant la solution d’une equation differentielle stochastique avec des coefficients irreguliers. A cet effet, nous plongeons la marche aleatoire renormalisee dans la diffusion $M$ par une suite de temps d’arret ayant un pas de temps avec esperance $1/N$.

We consider the problem of optimally stopping a one-dimensional regular continuous strong Markov process with a stopping time satisfying an expectation constraint. We show that it is sufficient to consider only stopping times such that the law of the process at the stopping time is a weighted sum of 3 Dirac measures. The proof uses recent results on Skorokhod embeddings in order to reduce the stopping problem to a linear optimization problem over a convex set of probability measures.

International audience; We set up a game theoretical model to analyze the optimal attacking intensity of sports teams during a game. We suppose that two teams can dynamically choose among more or less offensive actions and that the scoring probability of each team depends on both teams' actions. We assume a zero sum setting and characterize a Nash equilibrium in terms of the unique solution of an Isaacs equation. We present results from numerical experiments showing that towards the end of game it is optimal for the loosing team to start playing more offensively and for the winning team to play more defensively. This is even the case if the effects of the action changes cancel out so that the scoring intensities remain the same.

We provide a new algorithm for approximating the law of a one-dimensional diffusion M solving a stochastic differential equation with possibly irregular coefficients. The algorithm is based on the construction of Markov chains whose laws can be embedded into the diffusion M with a sequence of stopping times. The algorithm does not require any regularity or growth assumption; in particular it applies to SDEs with coefficients that are nowhere continuous and that grow superlinearly. We show that if the diffusion coefficient is bounded and bounded away from 0, then our algorithm has a weak convergence rate of order 1/4. Finally, we illustrate the algorithm's performance with several examples.

International audience; This paper is concerned with the determination of credit risk premia of defaultable contingent claims by means of indifference valuation principles. Assuming exponential utility preferences we derive representations of indifference premia of credit risk in terms of solutions of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDE). The class of BSDEs needed for that representation allows for quadratic growth generators and jumps at random times. Since the existence and uniqueness theory for this class of BSDEs has not yet been developed to the required generality, the first part of the paper is devoted to fill that gap. By using a simple constructive algorithm, and known results on continuous quadratic BSDEs, we provide sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of quadratic BSDEs with discontinuities at random times.

We consider insurance derivatives depending on an external physical risk process, for example a temperature in a low dimensional climate model. We assume that this process is correlated with a tradable financial asset. We derive optimal strategies for exponential utility from terminal wealth, determine the indierence prices of the derivatives, and interpret them in terms of diversification pressure. Moreover we check the optimal investment strategies for standard admissibility criteria. Finally we compare the static risk connected with an insurance derivative to the reduced risk due to a dynamic investment into the correlated asset. We show that dynamic hedging reduces the risk aversion in terms of entropic risk measures by a factor related to the correlation.

We consider backward stochastic differential equations (BSDE) with nonlinear generators typically of quadratic growth in the control variable. A measure solution of such a BSDE will be understood as a probability measure under which the generator is seen as vanishing, so that the classical solution can be reconstructed by a combination of the operations of conditioning and using martingale representations. In case the terminal condition is bounded and the generator fulfills the usual continuity and boundedness conditions, we show that measure solutions with equivalent measures just reinterpret classical ones. In case of terminal conditions that have only exponentially bounded moments, we discuss a series of examples which show that in case of non-uniqueness classical solutions that fail to be measure solutions can coexists with different measure solutions., 32 pages