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5 results on '"Anne Kubin"'

1. Is the Brewer‐Dobson circulation increasing or moving upward?

Author

Edwin P. Gerber, Anne Kubin, Luke D. Oman, Sophie Oberländer-Hayn, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Ulrike Langematz, A. Kerschbaumer, Markus Kunze, Olaf Morgenstern, Stefanie Meul, Martine Michou, and Janna Abalichin

Subjects
Mass flux, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmospheric circulation, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Brewer-Dobson circulation, Atmosphere, Geophysics, Circulation (fluid dynamics), Greenhouse gas, Climatology, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Tropopause, Stratosphere, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

The meridional circulation of the stratosphere, or Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), is projected to accelerate with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The acceleration is typically quantified by changes in the tropical upward mass flux (Ftrop) across a given pressure surface. Simultaneously, models project a lifting of the entire atmospheric circulation in response to GHGs; notably, the tropopause rises about a kilometer over this century. In this study, it is shown that most of the BDC trend is associated with the rise in the circulation. Using a chemistry-climate model (CCM), Ftrop trends across 100 hPa are contrasted with those across the tropopause: while Ftrop at 100 hPa increases 1–2 %/decade, the mass flux entering the atmosphere above the tropopause actually decreases. Similar results are found for other CCMs, suggesting that changes in the BDC may better be described as an upward shift of the circulation, as opposed to an increase, with implications for the mechanism and stratosphere-troposphere exchange.

Published
2016

2. Impact of rising greenhouse gas concentrations on future tropical ozone and UV exposure

Author

A. Kerschbaumer, Sophie Oberländer-Hayn, Martin Dameris, Stefanie Meul, Janna Abalichin, Ulrike Langematz, and Anne Kubin

Subjects
Ozone, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Irradiance, Climate change, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Chemistry climate model, chemistry-climate modelling, chemistry.chemical_compound, Geophysics, chemistry, Greenhouse gas, Climatology, Erdsystem-Modellierung, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Tropospheric ozone, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Future projections of tropical total column ozone (TCO) are challenging, as its evolution is affected not only by the expected decline of ozone depleting substances but also by the uncertain increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To assess the range of tropical TCO projections, we analyze simulations with a chemistry-climate model forced by three different GHG scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). We find that tropical TCO will be lower by the end of the 21st century compared to the 1960s in all scenarios with the largest decrease in the medium RCP6.0 scenario. Uncertainties of the projected TCO changes arise from the magnitude of stratospheric column decrease and tropospheric ozone increase which both strongly vary between the scenarios. In the three scenario simulations the stratospheric column decrease is not compensated by the increase in tropospheric ozone. The concomitant increase in harmful ultraviolet irradiance reaches up to 15% in specific regions in the RCP6.0 scenario.

Published
2016

3. Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century: impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects

Author

Andreas Kazantzidis, Kleareti Tourpali, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Eugene Rozanov, Tetsu Nakamura, Veronika Eyring, Slimane Bekki, Hella Garny, Alkiviadis F. Bais, Martine Michou, Anne Kubin, Olaf Morgenstern, Peter Braesicke, Emanuele Mancini, Kiyotaka Shibata, Theodore G. Shepherd, D. Iachetti, Giovanni Pitari, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Ulrike Langematz, Yousuke Yamashita, W. Tian, Patrick Jöckel, David A. Plummer, Paul A. Newman, Martin Dameris, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Physics [Patras], University of Patras [Greece], National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Chemistry [Cambridge, UK], University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (DLR), Dipartimento di Fisica [L'Aquila], Università degli Studi dell'Aquila (UNIVAQ), Institut für Meteorologie [Berlin], Freie Universität Berlin, University of L'Aquila [Italy] (UNIVAQ), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Lauder] (NIWA), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Department of Physics [Toronto], University of Toronto, Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), University of Patras, Università degli Studi dell'Aquila = University of L'Aquila (UNIVAQ), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Irradiance, Climate change, Atmospheric sciences, Solar irradiance, chemistry, 010402 general chemistry, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:Chemistry, Ozone layer, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, CCM, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Ozone depletion, lcsh:QC1-999, 0104 chemical sciences, radiation, lcsh:QD1-999, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Greenhouse gas, Middle latitudes, stratosphere, Climate model, Dynamik der Atmosphäre, lcsh:Physics
Abstract

Monthly averaged surface erythemal solar irradiance (UV-Ery) for local noon from 1960 to 2100 has been derived using radiative transfer calculations and projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate models (CCM), as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC. Our calculations show the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on erythemal irradiance. In addition, we investigate UV-Ery changes caused by climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter include effects of both stratospheric ozone and cloud changes. The derived estimates provide a global picture of the likely changes in erythemal irradiance during the 21st century. Uncertainties arise from the assumed scenarios, different parameterizations – particularly of cloud effects on UV-Ery – and the spread in the CCM projections. The calculations suggest that relative to 1980, annually mean UV-Ery in the 2090s will be on average ~12 % lower at high latitudes in both hemispheres, ~3 % lower at mid latitudes, and marginally higher (~1 %) in the tropics. The largest reduction (~16 %) is projected for Antarctica in October. Cloud effects are responsible for 2–3 % of the reduction in UV-Ery at high latitudes, but they slightly moderate it at mid-latitudes (~1 %). The year of return of erythemal irradiance to values of certain milestones (1965 and 1980) depends largely on the return of column ozone to the corresponding levels and is associated with large uncertainties mainly due to the spread of the model projections. The inclusion of cloud effects in the calculations has only a small effect of the return years. At mid and high latitudes, changes in clouds and stratospheric ozone transport by global circulation changes due to greenhouse gases will sustain the erythemal irradiance at levels below those in 1965, despite the removal of ozone depleting substances. At northern high latitudes (60°–90°), the projected decreases in cloud transmittance towards the end of the 21st century will reduce the yearly average surface erythemal irradiance by ~5 % with respect to the 1960s.

Published
2011

4. The influence of spectral solar irradiance data on stratospheric heating rates during the 11 year solar cycle

Author

Sophie Oberländer, Ulrike Langematz, Mark Weber, Sami K. Solanki, Katja Matthes, Markus Kunze, J. Pagaran, Natalie A. Krivova, Anne Kubin, and J. Harder

Subjects
Solar minimum, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Irradiance, Solar cycle 22, Atmospheric sciences, Solar irradiance, Solar maximum, Solar physics, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Solar cycle, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Physics::Space Physics, 0103 physical sciences, Astrophysics::Solar and Stellar Astrophysics, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Astrophysics::Earth and Planetary Astrophysics, 010303 astronomy & astrophysics, Stratosphere, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

Heating rate calculations with the FUBRad shortwave (SW) radiation parameterization have been performed to examine the effect of prescribed spectral solar fluxes from the NRLSSI, MPS and IUP data sets on SW heating rates over the 11 year solar cycle 22. The corresponding temperature response is derived from perpetual January General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations with prescribed ozone concentrations. The different solar flux input data sets induce clear differences in SW heating rates at solar minimum, with the established NRLSSI data set showing the smallest solar heating rates. The stronger SW heating in the middle and upper stratosphere in the MPS data warms the summer upper stratosphere by 2 K. Over the solar cycle, SW heating rate differences vary up to 40% between the irradiance data sets, but do not result in a significant change of the solar temperature signal. Lower solar fluxes in the newer SIM data lead to a significantly cooler stratosphere and mesosphere when compared to NRLSSI data for 2007. Changes in SW heating from 2004 to 2007 are however up to six times stronger than for the NRLSSI data. Key Points: - Solar minimum and solar cycle differences in SW heating rates and temperature - Comparison of three spectral solar input data sets for solar cycle 22 - Comparison of the newly compiled SORCE-data with the commonly used NRLSSI-data

Published
2012

5. Chemistry-climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone

Author

Steven C. Hardiman, Slimane Bekki, Theodore G. Shepherd, John Scinocca, Hamish Struthers, Greg Bodeker, N. Butchart, Ulrike Langematz, Patrick Jöckel, Eugene Rozanov, Martin Dameris, Olaf Morgenstern, E. Mancini, Sandip Dhomse, John Austin, Marion Marchand, Dan Smale, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Gettelman, Martyn P. Chipperfield, P. Braesicke, Ch. Brühl, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Tetsu Nakamura, David Cugnet, D. A. Plummer, J. E. Nielsen, Yousuke Yamashita, Giovanni Pitari, H. Teyssèdre, A. J. G. Baumgaertner, Kiyotaka Shibata, John A. Pyle, Martine Michou, Hella Garny, Anne Kubin, S. M. Frith, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Stockholm University, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (MPIC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Bodeker Scientific, NCAS-Climate [Cambridge], Department of Chemistry [Cambridge, UK], University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM)-University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds, DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (DLR), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Science Systems and Applications, Inc. [Lanham] (SSAI), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Institut für Meteorologie [Berlin], Freie Universität Berlin, University of L'Aquila [Italy] (UNIVAQ), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Lauder] (NIWA), Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Department of Physics [Toronto], University of Toronto, Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
Atmospheric Science, Ozone, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Mass deficit, Soil Science, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Aquatic Science, Oceanography, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, chemistry.chemical_compound, Geochemistry and Petrology, Polar vortex, Montreal Protocol, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, Water Science and Technology, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Ecology, ozone hole, Antarctic ozone hole, Paleontology, Forestry, Ozone depletion, Vortex, Geophysics, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Space and Planetary Science, chemistry-climate feedback, Climatology, Greenhouse gas, stratosphere, Environmental science, Dynamik der Atmosphäre
Abstract

International audience; Coupled chemistry-climate model simulations covering the recent past and continuing throughout the 21st century have been completed with a range of different models. Common forcings are used for the halogen amounts and greenhouse gas concentrations, as expected under the Montreal Protocol (with amendments) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1b Scenario. The simulations of the Antarctic ozone hole are compared using commonly used diagnostics: the minimum ozone, the maximum area of ozone below 220 DU, and the ozone mass deficit below 220 DU. Despite the fact that the processes responsible for ozone depletion are reasonably well understood, a wide range of results is obtained. Comparisons with observations indicate that one of the reasons for the model underprediction in ozone hole area is the tendency for models to underpredict, by up to 35%, the area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation. Models also typically have species gradients that are too weak at the edge of the polar vortex, suggesting that there is too much mixing of air across the vortex edge. Other models show a high bias in total column ozone which restricts the size of the ozone hole (defined by a 220 DU threshold). The results of those models which agree best with observations are examined in more detail. For several models the ozone hole does not disappear this century but a small ozone hole of up to three million square kilometers continues to occur in most springs even after 2070.

Published
2010

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