1. Budget impact analysis of medicines: estimated values versus real-world evidence and the implications
- Author
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Francisco de Assis Acurcio, Ramon Gonçalves Pereira, Augusto Afonso Guerra Junior, Juliana Alvares-Teodoro, Daniel Resende Faleiros, Brian Godman, Eli Iola Gurgel Andrade, and Everton Nunes da Silva
- Subjects
Budgets ,Public economics ,Cost-Benefit Analysis ,030503 health policy & services ,Health Policy ,MEDLINE ,General Medicine ,Budget impact ,Real world evidence ,RS ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Value (economics) ,Economic evaluation ,Sustainability ,Humans ,Pharmacology (medical) ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Business ,0305 other medical science ,Brazil ,Healthcare system - Abstract
Objectives: Budget Impact Analyses (BIA) of medicines helps managers in promoting health systems’ sustainability when assessing the role and value of new medicines. However, it is not clear whether BIAs typically underestimate or overestimate the impact on real-world budgets. This retroactive analysis seeks to compare estimated values obtained by a BIA and Real-World Evidence (RWE) to guide discussions. Methods: The estimated values were obtained through a BIA concerning the incorporation of adalimumab for the treatment of Rheumatoid Arthritis into the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS) carried out retroactively and per international guidelines. RWE data was extracted from SUS computerized systems. We subsequently compared the number of treatments, costs, and Incremental Budget Impact (IBI). Results–The total number of treatments was underestimated by 10% (6,243) and the total expenditure was overestimated by 463% (US$ 4.7 billion). In five years, the total difference between the estimated values and real IBI reached US$ 1.1 billion. A current expenditure of US$ 1.0 was observed for every US$ 5.60 of estimated expenditure. Conclusion–The higher estimates from the BIA might cause decision makers to be more cautious with the introduction of a new medicine to reduce the opportunity costs for other interventions.
- Published
- 2021
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