201. Organisational Preparedness for the Unforeseen: A Review of a Black Swan Event.
- Author
-
Kanungo, Jatindra
- Subjects
PREPAREDNESS ,QUANTITATIVE research ,ENVIRONMENTAL activism ,BUSINESS development - Abstract
This paper provides a review of the impact of the unforeseen on an organisation. In the work by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the Black Swan Theory proposes that a holistic approach/thought process should be considered instead of the normal statistical analyses based on historical data, in order to meet the challenges that Black Swan events pose. Although such events are unpredictable and with huge impact, generally on a global scale; this paper suggests that a chain of unforeseen events can result in a near-catastrophic outcome for an organisation - its own Black Swan. The earthquake/tsunami on the Japanese coast (11 March 2011) followed by Nuclear Power Plant failures, Environmental Activism, and Political Decisions resulting in a significant impact on associated organisations (e.g. nuclear power producer TEPCO and uranium miner Cameco) is a case in point. This paper encourages organisations to prepare themselves for such an eventuality through out-ofthe- box thinking, increasing systems' robustness and developing rapid response capability. An organisation's preparedness analytics should be challenged to include such outliers as the Black Swan event (extremely low probability) in order to face increasing uncertainties in the rapidly changing global business: financial, technological and socio-political environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020