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We describe a new generation of the high-performance GEOS-Chem (GCHP) global model of atmospheric composition developed as part of the GEOS-Chem version 13 series. GEOS-Chem is an open-source grid-independent model that can be used online within a meteorological simulation or offline using archived meteorological data. GCHP is an offline implementation of GEOS-Chem driven by NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) meteorological data for massively parallel simulations. Version 13 offers major advances in GCHP for ease of use, computational performance, versatility, resolution, and accuracy. Specific improvements include (i) stretched-grid capability for higher resolution in user-selected regions, (ii) more accurate transport with new native cubed-sphere GEOS meteorological archives including air mass fluxes at hourly temporal resolution with spatial resolution up to C720 (∼ 12 km), (iii) easier build with a build system generator (CMake) and a package manager (Spack), (iv) software containers to enable immediate model download and configuration on local computing clusters, (v) better parallelization to enable simulation on thousands of cores, and (vi) multi-node cloud capability. The C720 data are now part of the operational GEOS forward processing (GEOS-FP) output stream, and a C180 (∼ 50 km) consistent archive for 1998–present is now being generated as part of a new GEOS-IT data stream. Both of these data streams are continuously being archived by the GEOS-Chem Support Team for access by GCHP users. Directly using horizontal air mass fluxes rather than inferring from wind data significantly reduces global mean error in calculated surface pressure and vertical advection. A technical performance demonstration at C720 illustrates an attribute of high resolution with population-weighted tropospheric NO 2 columns nearly twice those at a common resolution of 2 ∘ × 2.5 ∘. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS‐E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed using an updated and improved version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes two different versions for atmospheric composition: A non‐interactive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect and the One‐Moment Aerosol model (OMA) version with fully interactive aerosols which includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. The effective climate sensitivities are 3.0°C and 2.9°C for the NINT and OMA models, respectively. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: The GISS ocean model (E2.1‐G) and HYCOM (E2.1‐H). We describe the global mean responses for all future scenarios and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation for four of the marker scenarios: SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP4‐6.0, and SSP5‐8.5. By 2100, global mean warming ranges from 1.5°C to 5.2°C relative to 1,850–1,880 mean temperature. Two high‐mitigation scenarios SSP1‐1.9 and SSP1‐2.6 limit the surface warming to below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, except for the NINT E2.1‐H model that simulates 2.2°C of surface warming. For the high emission scenario SSP5‐8.5, the range is 4.6–5.2°C at 2100. Due to about 15% larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate response in both NINT and OMA CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5 versions, there is a stronger warming by 2100 in the SSP emission scenarios than in the comparable Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios in CMIP5. Changes in sea ice area are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with the largest sea ice area decreases occurring during September in the Northern Hemisphere in both E2.1‐G (−1.21 × 106 km2/°C) and E2.1‐H models (−0.94 × 106 km2/°C). Both coupled models project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. The largest decrease of 56%–65% in the 21st century overturning stream function is produced in the warmest scenario SSP5‐8.5 in the E2.1‐G model, comparable to the reduction in the corresponding CMIP5 GISS‐E2 RCP8.5 simulation. Both low‐end scenarios SSP1‐1.9 and SSP1‐2.6 also simulate substantial reductions of the overturning (9%–37%) with slow recovery of about 10% by the end of the 21st century (relative to the maximum decrease at the middle of the 21st century). Plain Language Summary: The projections of future climate change are uncertain because they are dependent on different possible scenarios of human‐caused emissions and their interaction with natural forcings, internal climate variability, and inter‐model differences. This paper presents the results of the climate model of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS‐E2.1, for the anthropogenically forced climate response for the twenty first century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The sensitivity of the model response to different magnitudes of anthropogenic forcings in the twenty‐first‐century scenarios were performed using two different versions for the atmospheric composition and two different ocean general circulation models. Compared to CMIP5 GISS‐E2 versions, the CMIP6 GISS‐E2.1 climate model shows a stronger warming by 2100 in comparable scenarios due to larger effective climate sensitivity and transient climate response. Both climate models with two different ocean components project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. Key Points: GISS E2.1 model with different configurations is used to carry out 134 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) experimentsGISS‐E2.1 climate model shows a stronger warming by 2,100 in comparable Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios in CMIP5 due to larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate responseBoth coupled models, E2.1‐G and E2.1‐H, project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100 with the largest decrease in the warmest scenario SSP5‐8.5 in the E2.1‐G model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling atmospheric chemistry at fine resolution globally is computationally expensive; the capability to focus on specific geographic regions using a multiscale grid is desirable. Here, we develop, validate, and demonstrate stretched grids in the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model in its high-performance implementation (GCHP). These multiscale grids are specified at runtime by four parameters that offer users nimble control of the region that is refined and the resolution of the refinement. We validate the stretched-grid simulation versus global cubed-sphere simulations. We demonstrate the operation and flexibility of stretched-grid simulations with two case studies that compare simulated tropospheric NO 2 column densities from stretched-grid and cubed-sphere simulations to retrieved column densities from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). The first case study uses a stretched grid with a broad refinement covering the contiguous US to produce simulated columns that perform similarly to a C180 (∼ 50 km) cubed-sphere simulation at less than one-ninth the computational expense. The second case study experiments with a large stretch factor for a global stretched-grid simulation with a highly localized refinement with ∼ 10 km resolution for California. We find that the refinement improves spatial agreement with TROPOMI columns compared to a C90 cubed-sphere simulation of comparable computational demands. Overall, we find that stretched grids in GEOS-Chem are a practical tool for fine-resolution regional- or continental-scale simulations of atmospheric chemistry. Stretched grids are available in GEOS-Chem version 13.0.0. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850–2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System ModelE2.1. The GISS‐E2.1 ensembles are more sensitive to greenhouse gas forcing than their CMIP5 predecessors (GISS‐E2) but warm less during recent decades due to a forcing reduction that is attributed to greater longwave opacity in the GISS‐E2.1 pre‐industrial simulations. This results in an atmosphere less sensitive to increases in opacity from rising greenhouse gas concentrations, demonstrating the importance of the base climatology to forcing and forced climate trends. Most model versions match observed temperature trends since 1979 from the ocean to the stratosphere. The choice of ocean model is important to the transient climate response, as found previously in CMIP5 GISS‐E2: the model that more efficiently exports heat to the deep ocean shows a smaller rise in tropospheric temperature. Model sea level rise over the historical period is traced to excessive drawdown of aquifers to meet irrigation demand with a smaller contribution from thermal expansion. This shows how fully coupled models can provide indirect observational constraints upon forcing, in this case, constraining irrigation rates with observed sea level changes. The overall agreement of GISS‐E2.1 with observed trends is familiar from evaluation of its predecessors, as is the conclusion that these trends are almost entirely anthropogenic in origin. Plain Language Summary: Measurements show clear evidence of warming over the twentieth century and up to the present day. Our anticipation of future change comes from computer models of climate. These are based upon well‐established physical principles like Newton's laws of motion and radiative transfer theory; the models are closely related to those used for weather forecasting. We can never predict the weather on a particular day, 50 years in the future, but we can calculate whether that future decade will be warmer than our present climate. Part of our confidence in such a forecast comes from testing a climate model's ability to reproduce warming and other changes measured over the past century. We use observations of atmospheric composition and the sunlight received by our planet to calculate how the model responds to their changes. The climate model of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS‐E2.1, closely follows changes measured in the ocean and atmosphere as the concentrations of greenhouse gases and other pollutants rise. This agreement suggests that future warming by greenhouse gases will be reliably predicted by GISS‐E2.1. This suggests that the warming we already experience is due to our consumption of fossil fuels that has led to the increase of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere over the past two centuries. Key Points: Tropospheric warming and ocean heat uptake by 2014 are smaller in GISS‐E2.1 and closer to observed trends than in its CMIP5 predecessorGISS‐E2.1 climate sensitivity is higher than in CMIP5 GISS‐E2, but forcing by greenhouse gases is smallerAtmospheric trends vary among model configurations with the storage of heat beneath the thermocline [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling atmospheric chemistry at fine resolution globally is computationally expensive; the capability to focus on specific geographic regions using a multiscale grid is desirable. Here, we develop, validate, and demonstrate stretched-grids in the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model in its high performance implementation (GCHP). These multiscale grids are specified at runtime by four parameters that offer users nimble control of the region that is refined and the resolution of the refinement. We validate the stretched-grid simulation versus global cubed-sphere simulations. We demonstrate the operation and flexibility of stretched-grid simulations with two case studies that compare simulated tropospheric NO2 column densities from stretched-grid and cubed-sphere simulations to retrieved column densities from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). The first case study uses a stretched-grid with a broad refinement covering the contiguous US to produce simulated columns that perform similarly to a C180 (~50 km) cubed-sphere simulation at less than one-ninth the computational expense. The second case study experiments with a large stretch-factor for a global stretched-grid simulation with a highly localized refinement with ~10 km resolution for California. We find that the refinement improves spatial agreement with TROPOMI columns compared to a C90 cubed-sphere simulation of comparable computational demands, despite conducting the simulation at a finer resolution than parent meteorological fields. Overall we find that stretched-grids in GEOS-Chem are a practical tool for fine resolution regional- or continental-scale simulations of atmospheric chemistry. Stretched-grids are available in GEOS-Chem version 13.0.0. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global modeling of atmospheric chemistry is a grand computational challenge because of the need to simulate large coupled systems of ~ 100-1000 chemical species interacting with transport on all scales. Offline chemical transport models (CTMs), where the chemical continuity equations are solved using meteorological data as input, have usability advantages and are important vehicles for developing atmospheric chemistry knowledge that can then be transferred to Earth system models. However, they have generally not been designed to take advantage of massively parallel computing architectures. Here, we develop such a highperformance capability for GEOS-Chem (GCHP), a CTM driven by meteorological data from the NASA Goddard Earth Observation System (GEOS) and used by hundreds of research groups worldwide. GCHP is a grid-independent implementation of GEOS-Chem using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) that permits the same standard model to operate in a distributed-memory framework for massive parallelization. GCHP also allows GEOS-Chem to take advantage of the native GEOS cubed-sphere grid for greater accuracy and computational efficiency in simulating transport. GCHP enables GEOS-Chem simulations to be conducted with high computational scalability up to at least 500 cores, so that global simulations of stratosphere-troposphere oxidant-aerosol chemistry at C180 spatial resolution (~ 0:5° x 0:625°) or finer become routinely feasible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a description of the ModelE2 version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM) and the configurations used in the simulations performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use six variations related to the treatment of the atmospheric composition, the calculation of aerosol indirect effects, and ocean model component. Specifically, we test the difference between atmospheric models that have noninteractive composition, where radiatively important aerosols and ozone are prescribed from precomputed decadal averages, and interactive versions where atmospheric chemistry and aerosols are calculated given decadally varying emissions. The impact of the first aerosol indirect effect on clouds is either specified using a simple tuning, or parameterized using a cloud microphysics scheme. We also use two dynamic ocean components: the Russell and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) which differ significantly in their basic formulations and grid. Results are presented for the climatological means over the satellite era (1980-2004) taken from transient simulations starting from the preindustrial (1850) driven by estimates of appropriate forcings over the 20th Century. Differences in base climate and variability related to the choice of ocean model are large, indicating an important structural uncertainty. The impact of interactive atmospheric composition on the climatology is relatively small except in regions such as the lower stratosphere, where ozone plays an important role, and the tropics, where aerosol changes affect the hydrological cycle and cloud cover. While key improvements over previous versions of the model are evident, these are not uniform across all metrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nearby exoplanet Proxima Centauri b will be a prime future target for characterization, despite questions about its retention of water. Climate models with static oceans suggest that Proxima b could harbor a small dayside surface ocean despite its weak instellation. We present the first climate simulations of Proxima b with a dynamic ocean. We find that an ocean-covered Proxima b could have a much broader area of surface liquid water but at much colder temperatures than previously suggested, due to ocean heat transport and/or depression of the freezing point by salinity. Elevated greenhouse gas concentrations do not necessarily produce more open ocean because of dynamical regime transitions between a state with an equatorial Rossby–Kelvin wave pattern and a state with a day–night circulation. For an evolutionary path leading to a highly saline ocean, Proxima b could be an inhabited, mostly open ocean planet with halophilic life. A freshwater ocean produces a smaller liquid region than does an Earth salinity ocean. An ocean planet in 3:2 spin–orbit resonance has a permanent tropical waterbelt for moderate eccentricity. A larger versus smaller area of surface liquid water for similar equilibrium temperature may be distinguishable by using the amplitude of the thermal phase curve. Simulations of Proxima Centauri b may be a model for the habitability of weakly irradiated planets orbiting slightly cooler or warmer stars, for example, in the TRAPPIST-1, LHS 1140, GJ 273, and GJ 3293 systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]