17 results
Search Results
2. Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research.
- Author
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Scheuer, Sebastian, Haase, Dagmar, and Volk, Martin
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CLIMATE change ,URBANIZATION ,WATER supply ,CITIES & towns ,STRATEGIC planning ,ATMOSPHERIC sciences - Abstract
Over the 20
th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2017
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3. Anthropological contributions to historical ecology: 50 questions, infinite prospects.
- Author
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Armstrong, Chelsey Geralda, Shoemaker, Anna C., McKechnie, Iain, Ekblom, Anneli, Szabó, Péter, Lane, Paul J., McAlvay, Alex C., Boles, Oliver J., Walshaw, Sarah, Petek, Nik, Gibbons, Kevin S., Quintana Morales, Erendira, Anderson, Eugene N., Ibragimow, Aleksandra, Podruczny, Grzegorz, Vamosi, Jana C., Marks-Block, Tony, LeCompte, Joyce K., Awâsis, Sākihitowin, and Nabess, Carly
- Subjects
PALEOECOLOGY ,EARTH sciences ,ATMOSPHERIC sciences ,CLIMATE change ,ANTHROPOLOGY - Abstract
This paper presents the results of a consensus-driven process identifying 50 priority research questions for historical ecology obtained through crowdsourcing, literature reviews, and in-person workshopping. A deliberative approach was designed to maximize discussion and debate with defined outcomes. Two in-person workshops (in Sweden and Canada) over the course of two years and online discussions were peer facilitated to define specific key questions for historical ecology from anthropological and archaeological perspectives. The aim of this research is to showcase the variety of questions that reflect the broad scope for historical-ecological research trajectories across scientific disciplines. Historical ecology encompasses research concerned with decadal, centennial, and millennial human-environmental interactions, and the consequences that those relationships have in the formation of contemporary landscapes. Six interrelated themes arose from our consensus-building workshop model: (1) climate and environmental change and variability; (2) multi-scalar, multi-disciplinary; (3) biodiversity and community ecology; (4) resource and environmental management and governance; (5) methods and applications; and (6) communication and policy. The 50 questions represented by these themes highlight meaningful trends in historical ecology that distill the field down to three explicit findings. First, historical ecology is fundamentally an applied research program. Second, this program seeks to understand long-term human-environment interactions with a focus on avoiding, mitigating, and reversing adverse ecological effects. Third, historical ecology is part of convergent trends toward transdisciplinary research science, which erodes scientific boundaries between the cultural and natural. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2017
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4. Projected changes of alpine grassland carbon dynamics in response to climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios.
- Author
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Han, Pengfei, Lin, Xiaohui, Zhang, Wen, Wang, Guocheng, and Wang, Yinan
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CARBON cycle ,TIMBERLINE ,CLIMATE change ,GRASSLANDS ,HETEROTROPHIC respiration ,CARBON sequestration ,ATMOSPHERIC sciences - Abstract
The Tibetan Plateau is an important component of the global carbon cycle due to the large permafrost carbon pool and its vulnerability to climate warming. The Tibetan Plateau has experienced a noticeable warming over the past few decades and is projected to continue warming in the future. However, the direction and magnitude of carbon fluxes responses to climate change and elevated CO
2 concentration under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios in the Tibetan Plateau grassland are poorly known. Here, we used a calibrated and validated biogeochemistry model, CENTURY, to quantify the contributions of climate change and elevated CO2 on the future carbon budget in the alpine grassland under three RCP scenarios. Though the Tibetan Plateau grassland was projected a net carbon sink of 16 ~ 25 Tg C yr-1 in the 21st century, the capacity of carbon sequestration was predicted to decrease gradually because climate-driven increases in heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (with linear slopes 0.49 ~ 1.62 g C m-2 yr-1 ) was greater than the net primary production (NPP) (0.35 ~ 1.52 g C m-2 yr-1 ). However, the elevated CO2 contributed more to plant growth (1.9% ~ 7.3%) than decomposition (1.7% ~ 6.1%), which could offset the warming-induced carbon loss. The interannual and decadal-scale dynamics of the carbon fluxes in the alpine grassland were primarily controlled by temperature, while the role of precipitation became increasingly important in modulating carbon cycle. The strengthened correlation between precipitation and carbon budget suggested that further research should consider the performance of precipitation in evaluating carbon dynamics in a warmer climate scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2019
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5. Asymmetric seasonal daytime and nighttime warming and its effects on vegetation in the Loess Plateau.
- Author
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Ma, Liqun, Qin, Fen, Wang, Hao, Qin, Yaochen, and Xia, Haoming
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PLATEAUS ,LOESS ,CLIMATE change ,ATMOSPHERIC sciences ,ENVIRONMENTAL sciences ,EARTH sciences ,LIFE sciences - Abstract
Over the period 1982–2015, temperatures have exhibited an asymmetric warming pattern diurnally, as well as seasonally across the Loess Plateau. However, very limited research has studied the implications and effects of such seasonally heterogeneous warming across the Loess Plateau. In this study, we also analyzed the time series trends and seasonal spatial patterns of the maximum (T
max ) and minimum (Tmin ) temperatures and evaluated how different vegetation responded to daytime and nighttime warming in the Loess Plateau from 1982 to 2015 based on the NDVI and meteorological parameters (precipitation or temperature). We found that Tmax and Tmin significantly increased throughout the years except for Tmax in autumn, and the diurnal asymmetric warming showed some striking seasonal differences. For example, the increasing rates of Tmin in spring, summer, autumn, and winter were 0.75, 1.20, 1.88, and 1.10 times larger than that of Tmax , respectively. NDVI showed significantly positive correlation with Tmax and Tmin in spring and winter, while NDVI presented significantly positive correlation with Tmin in summer and Tmax in autumn across entire Loess Plateau. Furthermore, we also discovered diverse seasonal responses in terms of vegetation types to daytime and nighttime warming. For instance, Spring NDVI showed significantly positive partial correlations with Tmax and Tmin . In summer, grasslands and wetlands merely displayed significantly positive partial correlations with Tmin . Cultivated land presented significantly positive partial correlation between the NDVI and Tmax (Tmin ) in autumn. In winter, cultivated land, forest, and grassland exhibited significantly positive partial correlation with Tmax and Tmin , while only wetland showed a significantly positive partial correlation with Tmax . Our results demonstrated responses of vegetation to climate extremes and enhance a better understanding of the seasonally different responses of vegetation under global climate change at different scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2019
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6. Influence of respiratory mode on the thermal tolerance of intertidal limpets.
- Author
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Kankondi, Sebbi L., McQuaid, Christopher D., and Tagliarolo, Morgana
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THERMAL tolerance (Physiology) ,CLIMATE change ,ATMOSPHERIC sciences ,BODY temperature ,MEDICAL sciences - Abstract
Predicting ecological responses to climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms that influence species’ tolerances to temperature. Based on the idea that air and water breathing animals are differentially suited to life in either medium due to differences in their respiratory morphology, we examined the possibility that the thermal tolerances of co-existing intertidal pulmonate and patellogastropod limpets may differ in different breathing media. We tested this by determining each species’ median lethal temperature (LT
50 ) and cardiac Arrhenius breakpoint temperature (ABT) as measures of upper thermal tolerance limits, in air and water. Although all these species can survive in air and water, we hypothesised that the pulmonate limpets, Siphonaria capensis and S. serrata, would have higher thermal limits than the patellogastropod limpets, Cellana capensis and Scutellastra granularis, in air and vice versa in water. The results did not support our hypotheses, since C. capensis had similar thermal tolerance limits to the pulmonate limpets in air and the pulmonate limpets had thermal tolerance limits similar to or higher than S. granularis in water. Thus, considering pulmonate and patellid limpets as groups, we found no differences in their collective upper thermal tolerance limits in either medium. We conclude that differences between these two limpet groups in their respiratory morphology do not influence thermal tolerance, but that tolerances are species-specific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2018
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7. Apparent climate-mediated loss and fragmentation of core habitat of the American pika in the Northern Sierra Nevada, California, USA.
- Author
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Stewart, Joseph A. E., Wright, David H., and Heckman, Katherine A.
- Subjects
CLIMATE change ,CLIMATOLOGY ,AMERICAN pika ,ATMOSPHERIC sciences ,METEOROLOGY - Abstract
Contemporary climate change has been widely documented as the apparent cause of range contraction at the edge of many species distributions but documentation of climate change as a cause of extirpation and fragmentation of the interior of a species’ core habitat has been lacking. Here, we report the extirpation of the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a temperature-sensitive small mammal, from a 165-km
2 area located within its core habitat in California’s Sierra Nevada mountains. While sites surrounding the area still maintain pikas, radiocarbon analyses of pika fecal pellets recovered within this area indicate that former patch occupancy ranges from before 1955, the beginning of the atmospheric spike in radiocarbon associated with above ground atomic bomb testing, to c. 1991. Despite an abundance of suitable rocky habitat climate warming appears to have precipitated their demise. Weather station data reveal a 1.9°C rise in local temperature and a significant decline in snowpack over the period of record, 1910–2015, pushing pika habitat into increasingly tenuous climate conditions during the period of extirpation. This is among the first accounts of an apparently climate-mediated, modern extirpation of a species from an interior portion of its geographic distribution, resulting in habitat fragmentation, and is the largest area yet reported for a modern-era pika extirpation. Our finding provides empirical support to model projections, indicating that even core areas of species habitat are vulnerable to climate change within a timeframe of decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2017
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8. Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon.
- Author
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Ribeiro, Bruno R., Sales, Lilian P., Jr.De Marco, Paulo, and Loyola, Rafael
- Subjects
CLIMATE change ,ENDEMIC animals ,ECOLOGICAL impact ,ANIMAL species ,MAMMAL conservation ,GENERAL circulation model ,ATMOSPHERIC sciences - Abstract
Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21
st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2016
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9. Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.
- Author
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Shrestha, Uttam Babu and Bawa, Kamaljit S.
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CLIMATE change ,POTENTIAL distribution ,ENVIRONMENTAL impact analysis ,ATMOSPHERIC sciences ,CORDYCEPS - Abstract
Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km
2 ) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2014
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10. Quantifying the Impact of Land Cover Composition on Intra-Urban Air Temperature Variations at a Mid-Latitude City.
- Author
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Yan, Hai, Fan, Shuxin, Guo, Chenxiao, Hu, Jie, and Dong, Li
- Subjects
ATMOSPHERIC temperature ,LAND cover ,ATMOSPHERIC sciences ,ENVIRONMENTAL sciences ,URBAN ecology ,PLANT ecology - Abstract
The effects of land cover on urban-rural and intra-urban temperature differences have been extensively documented. However, few studies have quantitatively related air temperature to land cover composition at a local scale which may be useful to guide landscape planning and design. In this study, the quantitative relationships between air temperature and land cover composition at a neighborhood scale in Beijing were investigated through a field measurement campaign and statistical analysis. The results showed that the air temperature had a significant positive correlation with the coverage of man-made surfaces, but the degree of correlation varied among different times and seasons. The different land cover types had different effects on air temperature, and also had very different spatial extent dependence: with increasing buffer zone size (from 20 to 300 m in radius), the correlation coefficient of different land cover types varied differently, and their relative impacts also varied among different times and seasons. At noon in summer, ∼37% of the variations in temperature were explained by the percentage tree cover, while ∼87% of the variations in temperature were explained by the percentage of building area and the percentage tree cover on summer night. The results emphasize the key role of tree cover in attenuating urban air temperature during daytime and nighttime in summer, further highlighting that increasing vegetation cover could be one effective way to ameliorate the urban thermal environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
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11. Range-Wide Latitudinal and Elevational Temperature Gradients for the World's Terrestrial Birds: Implications under Global Climate Change.
- Author
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La Sorte, Frank A., Butchart, Stuart H. M., Jetz, Walter, and Böhning-Gaese, Katrin
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GEOGRAPHICAL distribution of birds ,CLIMATE change ,SURFACE temperature ,BIRD ecology ,EARTH sciences ,ATMOSPHERIC sciences ,BIOGEOGRAPHY - Abstract
Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation) and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among species, and the capacity of species to utilize these gradients under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
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12. Climate Change and the Distribution of Neotropical Red-Bellied Toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to Prioritize Species and Populations?
- Author
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Zank, Caroline, Becker, Fernando Gertum, Abadie, Michelle, Baldo, Diego, Maneyro, Raúl, and Borges-Martins, Márcio
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CLIMATE change ,MELANOPHRYNISCUS ,REPTILE behavior ,EARTH sciences ,ATMOSPHERIC sciences ,CLIMATE & biogeography ,HISTORY - Abstract
We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis, and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri, and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
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13. Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment.
- Author
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Harsch, Melanie A., McGlone, Matt S., and Wilmshurst, Janet M.
- Subjects
FORESTS & forestry ,PLANT growth ,CLIMATE change ,METEOROLOGICAL stations ,ATMOSPHERIC sciences ,PLANT ecology - Abstract
Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20
th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2014
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14. Individual Winter Movement Strategies in Two Species of Murre (Uria spp.) in the Northwest Atlantic.
- Author
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McFarlane Tranquilla, Laura A., Montevecchi, William A., Fifield, David A., Hedd, April, Gaston, Anthony J., Robertson, Gregory J., and Phillips, Richard A.
- Subjects
LIFE sciences ,MARINE biology ,ATMOSPHERIC sciences ,CLIMATE change ,BIOGEOGRAPHY ,POPULATION biology - Abstract
Individual wintering strategies and patterns of winter site fidelity in successive years are highly variable among seabird species. Yet, an understanding of consistency in timing of movements and the degree of site fidelity is essential for assessing how seabird populations might be influenced by, and respond to, changing conditions on wintering grounds. To explore annual variation in migratory movements and wintering areas, we applied bird-borne geolocators on Thick-billed Murres (Uria lomvia, n = 19) and Common Murres (U. aalge, n = 20) from 5 colonies in the Northwest Atlantic for 2–4 consecutive years. Thick-billed Murres ranged widely and among-individual wintering strategies were highly variable, whereas most Common Murres wintered relatively near their colonies, with among-individual variation represented more by the relative use of inshore vs. offshore habitat. Within individuals, some aspects of the wintering strategy were more repeatable than others: colony arrival and departure dates were more consistent by individual Common than Thick-billed Murres, while the sizes of home ranges (95% utilization distributions) and distances travelled to wintering area were more repeatable for both species. In consecutive years, individual home ranges overlapped from 0–64% (Thick-billed Murres) and 0–95% (Common Murres); and the winter centroids were just 239 km and 169 km apart (respectively). Over the 3–4 year timescale of our study, individuals employed either fixed or flexible wintering strategies; although most birds showed high winter site fidelity, some shifted core ranges after 2 or 3 years. The capacity among seabird species for a combination of fidelity and flexibility, in which individuals may choose from a range of alternative strategies, deserves further, longer term attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
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15. Refining Climate Change Projections for Organisms with Low Dispersal Abilities: A Case Study of the Caspian Whip Snake.
- Author
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Sahlean, Tiberiu C., Gherghel, Iulian, Papeş, Monica, Strugariu, Alexandru, and Zamfirescu, Ştefan R.
- Subjects
CLIMATE change ,BIODIVERSITY ,AMPHIBIANS ,COMPUTATIONAL biology ,ATMOSPHERIC sciences ,CONSERVATION biology - Abstract
Climate warming is one of the most important threats to biodiversity. Ectothermic organisms such as amphibians and reptiles are especially vulnerable as climatic conditions affect them directly. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are increasingly popular in ecological studies, but several drawbacks exist, including the limited ability to account for the dispersal potential of the species. In this study, we use ENMs to explore the impact of global climate change on the Caspian whip snake (Dolichophis caspius) as model for organisms with low dispersal abilities and to quantify dispersal to novel areas using GIS techniques. Models generated using Maxent 3.3.3 k and GARP for current distribution were projected on future climatic scenarios. A cost-distance analysis was run in ArcGIS 10 using geomorphological features, ecological conditions, and human footprint as “costs” to dispersal of the species to obtain a Maximum Dispersal Range (MDR) estimate. All models developed were statistically significant (P<0.05) and recovered the currently known distribution of D. caspius. Models projected on future climatic conditions using Maxent predicted a doubling of suitable climatic area, while GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. Both models agreed on an expansion of suitable area northwards, with minor decreases at the southern distribution limit. The MDR area calculated using the Maxent model represented a third of the total area of the projected model. The MDR based on GARP models recovered only about 20% of the total area of the projected model. Thus, incorporating measures of species’ dispersal abilities greatly reduced estimated area of potential future distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
16. Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE): A new method for simulating future climate in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems
- Author
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Ian Halm, Laura E. Sofen, Andrew B. Reinmann, Pamela H. Templer, Stephanie M. Juice, Rebecca Sanders-DeMott, Jamie L. Harrison, Mary E. Martin, Nicholas Grant, Lindsey E. Rustad, Francis Bowles, and P. Sorensen
- Subjects
Atmospheric Science ,Forest Ecology ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Climate Change ,lcsh:Medicine ,Climate change ,Growing season ,Forests ,Atmospheric sciences ,01 natural sciences ,Ecosystems ,Trees ,Meteorology ,Snow ,Forest ecology ,Computer Simulation ,Ecosystem ,lcsh:Science ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Climatology ,Multidisciplinary ,Ecology ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,Winter ,lcsh:R ,Temperature ,Organisms ,Biology and Life Sciences ,04 agricultural and veterinary sciences ,Plants ,15. Life on land ,Snowpack ,Terrestrial Environments ,13. Climate action ,Earth Sciences ,040103 agronomy & agriculture ,0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries ,Environmental science ,lcsh:Q ,Climate model ,Terrestrial ecosystem ,Seasons ,Environmental Monitoring ,Research Article - Abstract
Climate models project an increase in mean annual air temperatures and a reduction in the depth and duration of winter snowpack for many mid and high latitude and high elevation seasonally snow-covered ecosystems over the next century. The combined effects of these changes in climate will lead to warmer soils in the growing season and increased frequency of soil freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) in winter due to the loss of a continuous, insulating snowpack. Previous experiments have warmed soils or removed snow via shoveling or with shelters to mimic projected declines in the winter snowpack. To our knowledge, no experiment has examined the interactive effects of declining snowpack and increased frequency of soil FTCs, combined with soil warming in the snow-free season on terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, none have mimicked directly the projected increase in soil FTC frequency in tall statured forests that is expected as a result of a loss of insulating snow in winter. We established the Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE) at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the White Mountains of New Hampshire in 2012 to assess the combined effects of these changes in climate on a variety of pedoclimate conditions, biogeochemical processes, and ecology of northern hardwood forests. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of creating soil FTC events in a tall statured ecosystem in winter to simulate the projected increase in soil FTC frequency over the next century and combines this projected change in winter climate with ecosystem warming throughout the snow-free season. Together, this experiment provides a new and more comprehensive approach for climate change experiments that can be adopted in other seasonally snow-covered ecosystems to simulate expected changes resulting from global air temperature rise.
- Published
- 2017
17. A Novel Large-Scale Temperature Dominated Model for Predicting the End of the Growing Season
- Author
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Yang Fu, Haibo Shi, Rui Xiao, and Zeyu Zheng
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Leaves ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,lcsh:Medicine ,Plant Science ,Forests ,Atmospheric sciences ,01 natural sciences ,Trees ,lcsh:Science ,Northern Hemisphere ,Multidisciplinary ,Geography ,Ecology ,Phenology ,Plant Anatomy ,Temperature ,Biosphere ,Plants ,Adaptation, Physiological ,Terrestrial Environments ,Grasslands ,Seasons ,Research Article ,Climate Change ,Plant Development ,Climate change ,Growing season ,010603 evolutionary biology ,Ecosystems ,medicine ,Plant Communities ,Ecosystem ,Plant Physiological Phenomena ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Plant Ecology ,Ecology and Environmental Sciences ,lcsh:R ,Organisms ,Biology and Life Sciences ,Primary production ,Models, Theoretical ,Seasonality ,medicine.disease ,Earth sciences ,Physical Geography ,Environmental science ,Common spatial pattern ,lcsh:Q ,Shrubs ,Geographic areas - Abstract
Vegetation phenology regulates many ecosystem processes and is an indicator of the biological responses to climate change. It is important to model the timing of leaf senescence accurately, since the canopy duration and carbon assimilation are strongly determined by the timings of leaf senescence. However, the existing phenology models are unlikely to accurately predict the end of the growing season (EGS) on large scales, resulting in the misrepresentation of the seasonality and interannual variability of biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks and interactions in coupled global climate models. In this paper, we presented a novel large-scale temperature dominated model integrated with the physiological adaptation of plants to the local temperature to assess the spatial pattern and interannual variability of the EGS. Our model was validated in all temperate vegetation types over the Northern Hemisphere. The results indicated that our model showed better performance in representing the spatial and interannual variability of leaf senescence, compared with the original phenology model in the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS). Our model explained approximately 63% of the EGS variations, whereas the original model explained much lower variations (coefficient of determination R2 = 0.01–0.18). In addition, the differences between the EGS reproduced by our model and the MODIS EGS at 71.3% of the pixels were within 10 days. For the original model, it is only 26.1%. We also found that the temperature threshold (TcritTm) of grassland was lower than that of woody species in the same latitudinal zone.
- Published
- 2016
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