1. Risk Stratification of Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms in Patients Treated by Open Surgical Repair
- Author
-
Felix Krenzien, Christian Benzing, M. Schmelzle, I. Matia, Peter Fellmer, Georg Wiltberger, Georgi Atanasov, and H.-M. Hau
- Subjects
Male ,Time Factors ,030204 cardiovascular system & hematology ,030230 surgery ,Gastroenterology ,Medical Records ,0302 clinical medicine ,Risk Factors ,Germany ,Medicine ,Scoring methods ,Hospital Mortality ,Aged, 80 and over ,Medicine(all) ,Framingham Risk Score ,Area under the curve ,Classification ,Treatment Outcome ,Area Under Curve ,Predictive value of tests ,Female ,Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine ,Vascular Surgical Procedures ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Aortic Rupture ,Risk Assessment ,Decision Support Techniques ,03 medical and health sciences ,Aneurysm ,Predictive Value of Tests ,Internal medicine ,Humans ,Abdominal ,Mortality ,Aortic rupture ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies ,Chi-Square Distribution ,Receiver operating characteristic ,business.industry ,Patient Selection ,Reproducibility of Results ,Retrospective cohort study ,medicine.disease ,Surgery ,Logistic Models ,ROC Curve ,Multivariate Analysis ,business ,Chi-squared distribution ,Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal - Abstract
Objective The present study tested scoring models for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (rAAAs) in patients treated by open surgical repair (OSR). Scores were tested in a European population to validate their applicability for predicting outcome. Methods Between 2002 and 2013, 92 patients with rAAAs underwent OSR and medical records were reviewed retrospectively. The Edinburgh Rupture Aneurysm Score (ERAS), Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) rAAA risk score, Hardman Index, and Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS) were calculated and analyzed according to in hospital mortality. The discriminatory power and calibration of all models were assessed by applying the receiver operating characteristic and the Hosmer–Lemeshow test χ 2 . Results An ERAS ≤1 ( n = 55), 2 ( n = 15) and 3 ( n = 16) was associated with a mortality of 27%, 47%, and 69%, respectively. The calibration was the best of all tested scores (χ 2 = 0.44; p = .81) and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.71 (95% CI 0.6–0.82; p = .001). A VSGNE rAAA risk score = 0 ( n = 19), 1 ( n = 15), 2 ( n = 19), 3 ( n = 25), and ≥4 ( n = 9) was associated with a mortality of 11%, 20%, 32%, 72%, and 56%, and an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.66–0.87; p = .001). The calibration was reduced (χ 2 = 6.9; p = .08). The GAS and Hardman Index increased stepwise with increasing in hospital mortality, but were inferior to ERAS and the VSGNE rAAA risk score. The Hardman Index showed the smallest AUC (0.68; 95% CI 0.56–0.80; p = .011) and demonstrated a lack of fit (χ 2 = 8.2; p = .04). The GAS showed good discrimination (AUC = 0.75; 95% CI 0.64–0.85; p 2 = 0.85; p = .66); however, the parametric scale of GAS limits its use to classifying patients according to their risk. Conclusion The present study revealed remarkable differences in survival between subgroups (10–70%) and underscores the need for risk stratification. The ERAS was favorable with striking ease of use and high accuracy in predicting outcome.
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF