Search

The freight transport sector is a critical sector for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets. However, there are many uncertainties regarding the e-commerce development, promotion speed of low-carbon measures, and freight transport technologies. Existing research lacks considering the multiple uncertainties on the low-carbon technological pathway for freight transport. Consequently, a bottom-up National Energy Technology-Transport (NET-Transport) model is developed based on the principle of cost minimization for optimizing the low-carbon transition pathway of the freight transport. The study comprehensively evaluates the sustainable technological pathway, energy saving and carbon emission reduction of various measures, including shifting to low-carbon transport modes, improving transport energy efficiency and promoting clean energy. Results show that the freight transport demand will reach 24.1–60.5 trillion ton-kilometers by 2060. CO 2 emission would peak at 0.8–1.0 billion tons in 2030–2041 if the breakthrough technologies are not developed on a large scale. Carbon neutrality in the freight sector is difficult to achieve by relying on the low-carbon transition of the energy system alone, with 57–555 million tons of remaining CO 2 emissions in 2060. The advanced technologies have significant effects on energy saving and emission reduction. The research, development, and application of hydrogen-fueled heavy trucks should be accelerated. • A National Energy Technology model is established for China's freight transport. • The freight demand under the influence of e-commerce development is forecasted. • The uncertain impacts of various low-carbon measures are investigated. • China's freight transport is difficult to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. • A low-carbon development pathway is proposed for China's freight transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concerns over supply risks of critical metals used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries are frequently underscored as impediments to the widespread development of EVs. With the progress to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 for China, projecting the critical metals demand for EV batteries and formulating strategies, especially circular economy strategies, to mitigate the risks of demand-supply imbalance in response to potential obstacles are necessary. However, the development scale of EVs in the transport sector to achieve China's carbon neutrality is unclear, and it remains uncertain to what extent circular economy strategies might contribute to the reduction of primary raw materials extraction. Consequently, we explore the future quantity of EVs in China required to achieve carbon neutrality and quantify the primary supply security levels of critical metals with the effort of battery cascade utilization, technology substitutions, recycling efficiency improvement, and novel business models, by integrating dynamic material flow analysis and national energy technology model. This study reveals that although 18%–30% of lithium and 20%–41% of cobalt, nickel, and manganese can be supplied to EVs through the reuse and recycling of end-of-life batteries, sustainable circular economy strategies alone are insufficient to obviate critical metals shortages for China's EV development. However, the supplementary capacity offered by second-life EV batteries, which refers to the use of batteries after they have reached the end of their first intended life, may prove adequate for China's prospective novel energy storage applications. The cumulative primary demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel from 2021 to 2060 would reach 5–7 times, 23–114 times, and 4–19 times the corresponding mineral reserves in China. Substantial reduction of metals supply risks apart from lithium can be achieved by the cobalt-free battery technology developments combined with efficient recycling systems, where secondary supply can satisfy the demand as early as 2054. [Display omitted] • Circular economy strategies alone are insufficient to obviate metals shortages. • China's electric vehicle development might face shortage risks of Li, Co, and Ni. • 1/5–2/5 of critical metals can be supplied through reuse and recycling. • Cobalt-free battery technology should be combined with efficient recycling systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Develop a cost-optimal model towards carbon neutrality in the iron and steel industry. • Explore the cost-effective carbon neutral pathway in the iron and steel industry. • Promoting energy-saving technologies is the most effective strategy to reduce CO 2. • Stable scrap supply would assist carbon neutrality in the iron and steel industry. The iron and steel industry is a critical sector for achieving China's carbon neutrality goal. However, existing studies lack considering the multiple constraints including limited resources, technology diffusion and carbon emissions reduction on design of carbon neutral pathway for iron and steel industry. A broader analysis that can integrate resources-technologies-emissions in to a united framework is necessary. To further explore the feasible paths and challenges faced by the iron and steel industry, this study developed the C3IAM/NET-IS (China's Climate Change Integrated Assessment Model/National Energy Technology-Iron and Steel) model to select the optimal technology portfolios. By incorporating 11 measures such as technological innovation, structure adjustment of raw material, clean energy, etc., the integrated impact on CO 2 emissions, energy consumption, raw materials, and costs is analyzed, while the carbon neutral pathway for the iron and steel industry is further investigated. The results show that CO 2 emissions of China's iron and steel industry would peak at about 1514.14–1530.86 million tonnes before 2023. And there would be more than 72.78 million tonnes of CO 2 in 2060, requiring carbon sinks to absorb to achieve carbon neutrality. During 2020–2060, the most effective measure would be the promotion of energy-saving technologies, which would contribute about 22.07% of CO 2 emission reduction. Compared to the EAF (Electric Arc Furnace) with 50% scrap, promoting EAF with 100% scrap would result in cumulative total costs savings of about 4361.04 billion CNY while consuming 15.14 billion tonnes of scrap. To coordinate the goals of carbon neutrality and raw material security, it is necessary to support domestic iron ore enterprises through tax relief and to accelerate the large-scale construction of the scrap recycling industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]