Search

In Nepal, the distributions of three bear species vary: sloth bears (Melursus ursinus) in the lowlands, Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) in the mid-hills, and brown bears (Ursus arctos) in the high Himalayas. We utilized 179 occurrence points for sloth bears, 199 for Asiatic black bears, and 41 points for brown bears to construct a habitat model incorporating climate and topographic variables. Employing various species distribution modeling algorithms in BIOMOD2, the model predicts suitable habitats spanning 10,971.75 km 2 for sloth bears; 29,470.75 km 2 for Asiatic black bears; and 6152.97 km 2 for brown bears. Within protected areas, the habitat for sloth bears is 4120.56 km 2 , that for Asiatic black bears is 9688.67 km 2 , and that for brown bears is 4538.67 km 2 . Chitwan National Park emerged as the prime sloth bear habitat with a core area of 918.55 km 2 and a buffer zone of 726.485 km 2 . The Annapurna Conservation Area was deemed suitable for Asiatic black bears and brown bears, covering 2802.23 km 2 and 2795.91 km 2 , respectively. The models projected a significant reduction in the habitat of these bear species both inside and outside protected areas. As predicted under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)2-4.5 scenario, sloth bears may experience 54.9% (2050) and 44.7% (2070) losses, respectively, of habitat; Asiatic black bears, 11.2% (2050) and 16.8% (2070); and brown bears, 68.41% (2050) and 82.20% (2070) losses. The overlap between sloth bears and black bears spans 38.7 km 2 , and that between brown bears and black bears is 26.6 km 2 . Notably, all three bear species exhibited suitability correlations with the intermediate temperature of the driest quarter. Examining current and projected habitats provides essential information for guiding conservation strategies and ensuring the conservation of these bear species in the face of climate change., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Current and near future climate policy will fundamentally influence the integrity of ecological systems. The Neotropics is a region where biodiversity is notably high and precipitation regimes largely determine the ecology of most organisms. We modeled possible changes in the severity of seasonal aridity by 2100 throughout the Neotropics and used birds to illustrate the implications of contrasting climate scenarios for the region's biodiversity. Under SSP-8.5, a pessimistic and hopefully unlikely scenario, longer dry seasons (> 5%), and increased moisture stress are projected for about 75% of extant lowland forests throughout the entire region with impacts on 66% of the region's lowland forest avifauna, which comprises over 3000 species and about 30% of all bird species globally. Longer dry seasons are predicted to be especially significant in the Caribbean, Upper South America, and Amazonia. In contrast, under SSP-2.6-a scenario with significant climate mitigation-only about 10% of the entire region's forest area and 3% of its avifauna will be exposed to longer dry seasons. The extent of current forest cover that may plausibly function as precipitation-based climate refugia (i.e., < 5% change in length of dry periods) for constituent biodiversity is over 4 times greater under SSP-2.6 than with SSP-8.5. Moreover, the proportion of currently protected areas that overlap putative refugia areas is nearly 4 times greater under SSP-2.6. Taken together, our results illustrate that climate policy will have profound outcomes for biodiversity throughout the Neotropics-even in areas where deforestation and other immediate threats are not currently in play., (© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change has profound impacts on forest ecosystem dynamics and could lead to the emergence of novel ecosystems via changes in species composition, forest structure, and potentially a complete loss of tree cover. Disturbances fundamentally shape those dynamics: the prevailing disturbance regime of a region determines the inherent variability of a system, and its climate-mediated change could accelerate forest transformation. We used the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model iLand to investigate the resilience of three protected temperate forest landscapes on three continents-selected to represent a gradient from low to high disturbance activity-to changing climate and disturbance regimes. In scenarios of sustained strong global warming, natural disturbances increased across all landscapes regardless of projected changes in precipitation (up to a sevenfold increase in disturbance rate over the 180-year simulation period). Forests in landscapes with historically high disturbance activity had a higher chance of remaining resilient in the future, retaining their structure and composition within the range of variability inherent to the system. However, the risk of regime shift and forest loss was also highest in these systems, suggesting forests may be vulnerable to abrupt change beyond a threshold of increasing disturbance activity. Resilience generally decreased with increasing severity of climate change. Novelty in tree species composition was more common than novelty in forest structure, especially under dry climate scenarios. Forests close to the upper tree line experienced high novelty in structure across all three study systems. Our results highlight common patterns and processes of forest change, while also underlining the diverse and context-specific responses of temperate forest landscapes to climate change. Understanding past and future disturbance regimes can anticipate the magnitude and direction of forest change. Yet, even across a broad gradient of disturbance activity, we conclude that climate change mitigation is the most effective means of maintaining forest resilience., (© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Global climate change can interact with local drivers, such as ecosystem engineers, to exacerbate changes in ecosystem structure and function, with socio-ecological consequences. For regions of Indigenous interest, there may also be cultural consequences if species and areas affected are culturally significant. Here we describe a participatory approach between the Indigenous (Yolngu) Yirralka Rangers and non-Indigenous researchers that explored the interaction between sea level rise and feral ungulate ecosystem engineers on culturally significant floodplains in the Laynhapuy Indigenous Protected Area (IPA), northern Australia. A feral ungulate exclusion fence array (12 fenced and 12 unfenced plots) was stratified by elevation/salinity to disentangle the effects of salinity and ungulates on floodplain soil and vegetation. We found that exclusion of feral ungulates improved ground cover vegetation, which, according to our literature-derived ecosystem process model, may enhance soil trapping and reduce evapotranspiration to provide the antecedent conditions needed to improve floodplain resilience to sea level rise. The mid-zone of the supratidal floodplain study site was suggested as the region where the benefits of fencing were most pronounced after two years and ground cover species diversity was highest. Ongoing monitoring is required to investigate whether removal of feral ungulates can increase resilience against sea level rise and recruitment of eco-culturally significant Melaleuca species. An interview with a key Yolngu Traditional Owner of the study site demonstrated the importance and effectiveness of the partnership. Yolngu land owners and rangers were active co-researchers and will decide if, when and how to integrate results into feral ungulate management and climate adaptation responses, highlighting the importance of industry-university partnerships in maximising biocultural conservation outcomes., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Unveiling spatial variation in vegetation resilience to climate extremes can inform effective conservation planning under climate change. Although many conservation efforts are implemented on landscape scales, they often remain blind to landscape variation in vegetation resilience. We explored the distribution of drought-resilient vegetation (i.e., vegetation that could withstand and quickly recover from drought) and its predictors across a heterogeneous coastal landscape under long-term wetland conversion, through a series of high-resolution satellite image interpretations, spatial analyses, and nonlinear modelling. We found that vegetation varied greatly in drought resilience across the coastal wetland landscape and that drought-resilient vegetation could be predicted with distances to coastline and tidal channel. Specifically, drought-resilient vegetation exhibited a nearly bimodal distribution and had a seaward optimum at ~2 km from coastline (corresponding to an inundation frequency of ~30%), a pattern particularly pronounced in areas further away from tidal channels. Furthermore, we found that areas with drought-resilient vegetation were more likely to be eliminated by wetland conversion. Even in protected areas where wetland conversion was slowed, drought-resilient vegetation was increasingly lost to wetland conversion at its landward optimum in combination with rapid plant invasions at its seaward optimum. Our study highlights that the distribution of drought-resilient vegetation can be predicted using landscape features but without incorporating this predictive understanding, conservation efforts may risk failing in the face of climate extremes., (© 2024 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

As climate change becomes a primary driver of global ecosystem deterioration and biodiversity loss, protected areas (PAs) are posed to play a crucial conservation role. At a global scale, 17 % of land is currently covered by PAs; a figure expected to reach 30 % by 2030 under the UN post-2020 global biodiversity framework. However, focusing only on the percent coverage of PAs without assessing their efficacy may not accomplish the intended conservation goals. Here, we present the first assessment of the risk from climate change to existing PAs and non-protected lands across Pakistan by combining data on the local exposure and vulnerability of 409 species of birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians to multidimensional changes in climate by mid (2040-2060) and late (2061-2080) century under two climate emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that between 7 % (2050 RCP4.5) and 19 % (2080 RCP8.5) of the current network of PAs, mostly located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country, are projected to be under future extreme risk (i.e., highly exposed areas containing highly vulnerable communities). Importantly, hotspots of risk within these PAs are projected to significantly expand over time and with increasing severity of the scenario. In contrast, PAs in the northern part of the country are projected to remain under moderate to low risk. Results are subject to variability across the country reflecting interesting differences in climate change exposure and species vulnerability between protected and non-protected lands. Importantly, significantly lower level of risks from future climate change are projected for PAs than non-protected lands across emission scenarios and periods suggesting potential candidate areas for the future expansion of the country's PA network. Our analysis provides novel insights that can help inform conservation decisions and management at a time when the country is investing in ambitious efforts to expand its network of protected areas., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Anthropogenic climate change, land use modifications, and alien species invasions are major threats to global biodiversity. Protected areas (PAs) are regarded as the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation, however, few studies have quantified the vulnerability of PAs to these global change factors together. Here, we overlay the risks of climate change, land use change, and alien vertebrate establishment within boundaries of a total of 1020 PAs with different administrative levels in China to quantify their vulnerabilities. Our results show that 56.6% of PAs will face at least one stress factor, and 21 PAs are threatened under the highest risk with three stressors simultaneously. PAs designed for forest conservation in Southwest and South China are most sensitive to the three global change factors. In addition, wildlife and wetland PAs are predicted to mainly experience climate change and high land use anthropogenetic modifications, and many wildlife PAs can also provide suitable habitats for alien vertebrate establishment. Our study highlights the urgent need for proactive conservation and management planning of Chinese PAs by considering different global change factors together., (© 2023 The Ecological Society of America.)

Incorporating biodiversity, ecosystem services (ESs) and climate change adaptation into the conservation targets of protected areas (PAs) is being acknowledged. Targeting conservation actions requires a thorough understanding of the relationship between PAs and these important regions. However, few studies have identified conservation gaps while simultaneously considering these three aspects. Here, we assessed the representativeness of the PAs network for biodiversity, ESs and climate refugia (as a proxy for climate change adaptation ability) on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Our analysis showed that these priority conservation regions were primarily located in the south and southeast of the TP, while they were impacted by intense human pressure. Most ESs and all types of species richness showed a significant positive correlation. Additionally, a positive correlation between multiple climate refugia and different types of species richness was detected. Representativeness analysis revealed notable conservation gaps for these three aspects in existing PAs, highlighting the urgency of adjusting their distribution and improving their representativeness. By integrating these conservation targets, priority regions for future conservation were further delineated. Taken together, our findings contribute to improving the efficiency of PAs and optimizing conservation planning., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest No interest conflicts., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Conservation of biodiversity relies heavily on protected areas but their role and effectiveness under a warming climate is still debated. We estimated the climate-driven changes in the temperature niche compositions of bird communities inside and outside protected areas in southern Canada. We hypothesized that communities inside protected areas include a higher proportion of cold-dwelling species than communities outside protected areas. We also hypothesized that communities shift to warm-dwelling species more slowly inside protected areas than outside. To study community changes, we used large-scale and long-term (1997-2019) data from the Breeding Bird Survey of Canada. To describe the temperature niche compositions of bird communities, we calculated the community temperature index (CTI) annually for each community inside and outside protected areas. Generally, warm-dwelling species dominated communities with high CTI values. We modeled temporal changes in CTI as a function of protection status with linear mixed-effect models. We also determined which species contributed most to the temporal changes in CTI with a jackknife approach. As anticipated, CTI was lower inside protected areas than outside. However, contrary to our expectation, CTI increased faster over time inside than outside protected areas and warm-dwelling species contributed most to CTI change inside protected areas. These results highlight the ubiquitous impacts of climate warming. Currently, protected areas can aid cold-dwelling species by providing habitat, but as the climate warms, the communities' temperature compositions inside protected areas quickly begin to resemble those outside protected areas, suggesting that protected areas delay the impacts of climate warming on cold-dwelling species., (© 2023 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

Background: Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme., Methods: We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distribution of 19 endemic or threatened bird taxa of the Caatinga. We assessed whether current protected areas (PAs) are adequate and whether they will maintain their effectiveness in the future. Also, we identified climatically stable areas that might work as refugia for an array of species., Results: We observed that 84% and 87% of the bird species of Caatinga analyzed in this study will face high area losses in their predicted range distribution areas in future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). We also observed that the current PAs in Caatinga are ineffective in protecting these species in both present and future scenarios, even when considering all protection area categories. However, several suitable areas can still be allocated for conservation, where there are vegetation remnants and a high amount of species. Therefore, our study paves a path for conservation actions to mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change by choosing more suitable protection areas., Competing Interests: Daniel Paiva Silva is an Academic Editor for PeerJ., (©2023 Gonçalves et al.)

Identifying climate refugia is key to effective biodiversity conservation under a changing climate, especially for mountain-specialist species adapted to cold conditions and highly threatened by climate warming. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) with climate forecasts to identify climate refugia for high-elevation bird species (Lagopus muta, Anthus spinoletta, Prunella collaris, Montifringilla nivalis) in the European Alps, where the ecological effects of climate changes are particularly evident and predicted to intensify. We considered future (2041-2070) conditions (SSP585 scenario, four climate models) and identified three types of refugia: (1) in-situ refugia potentially suitable under both current and future climate conditions, ex-situ refugia suitable (2) only in the future according to all future conditions, or (3) under at least three out of four future conditions. SDMs were based on a very large, high-resolution occurrence dataset (2901-12,601 independent records for each species) collected by citizen scientists. SDMs were fitted using different algorithms, balancing statistical accuracy, ecological realism and predictive/extrapolation ability. We selected the most reliable ones based on consistency between training and testing data and extrapolation over distant areas. Future predictions revealed that all species (with the partial exception of A. spinoletta) will undergo a range contraction towards higher elevations, losing 17%-59% of their current range (larger losses in L. muta). We identified ~15,000 km 2 of the Alpine region as in-situ refugia for at least three species, of which 44% are currently designated as protected areas (PAs; 18%-66% among countries). Our findings highlight the usefulness of spatially accurate data collected by citizen scientists, and the importance of model testing by extrapolating over independent areas. Climate refugia, which are only partly included within the current PAs system, should be priority sites for the conservation of Alpine high-elevation species and habitats, where habitat degradation/alteration by human activities should be prevented to ensure future suitability for alpine species., (© 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Wilderness areas are not immune to changes in land use, land cover, and/or climate. Future changes will intensify the balancing act of maintaining ecological conditions and untrammeled character within wilderness areas. We assessed the quantitative and spatial changes in land use, land cover, and climate predicted to occur in and around wilderness areas by (1) quantifying projected changes in land use and land cover around wilderness areas; (2) evaluating if public lands surrounding wilderness areas can buffer future land-use change; (3) quantifying future climate conditions in and around wilderness areas; and (4) identifying wilderness areas expected to experience the most change in land use, land cover, and climate. We used projections of land use (four variables), land cover (five variables), and climate (nine variables) to assess changes for 707 wilderness areas in the contiguous United States by mid-21st century under two scenarios (medium-low and high). We ranked all wilderness areas relative to each other by summing and ranking decile values for each land use, land cover, and climate variable and calculating a multivariate metric of future change. All wilderness areas were projected to experience some level of change by mid-century. The greatest land-use changes were associated with increases in agriculture, clear cutting, and developed land, while the greatest land cover changes were observed for grassland, forest, and shrubland. In 51.6% and 73.8% of wilderness areas, core area of natural vegetation surrounding wilderness was projected to decrease for the medium-low and high scenarios, respectfully. Presence of public land did not mitigate the influence of land-use change around wilderness areas. Geographically, projected changes occurred throughout the contiguous U.S., with areas in the northeast and upper Midwest projected to have the greatest land-use and climate change and the southwestern U.S. projected to undergo the greatest land cover and climate change. Our results provide insights into potential future threats to wilderness areas and the challenges associated with wilderness stewardship and climate adaptation. Despite the high degree of protection and remoteness of wilderness areas, effective management and preservation of these lands must consider future changes in land use, land cover, and climate., (© 2021 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.)

Global commitments to protected area expansion should prioritize opportunities to protect climate refugia and ecosystems which store high levels of irrecoverable carbon, as key components of an effective response to biodiversity loss and climate change. The United States and Canada are responsible for one-sixth of global greenhouse gas emissions but hold extensive natural ecosystems that store globally significant above- and below-ground carbon. Canada has initiated a process of protected area network expansion in concert with efforts at reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples, and acknowledged nature-based solutions as a key aspect of climate change mitigation. The US, although not a party to global biodiversity conventions, has recently committed to protecting 30% of its extent by 2030 and achieving the UNFCCC Paris Agreement's mitigation targets. The opportunities afforded by these dual biodiversity conservation and climate commitments require coordinated national and regional policies to ensure that new protected areas maximize biodiversity-focused adaptation and nature-based mitigation opportunities. We address how global commitments can best inform national policy initiatives which build on existing agency mandates for regional planning and species conservation. Previous analyses of global conservation priorities under climate change have been tenuously linked to policy contexts of individual nations and have lacked information on refugia due to limitations of globally available datasets. Comparison and synthesis of predictions from a range of recently developed refugia metrics allow such data to inform planning despite substantial uncertainty arising from contrasting model assumptions and inputs. A case study for endangered species planning for old-forest-associated species in the US Pacific Northwest demonstrates how regional planning can be nested hierarchically within national biodiversity-focused adaptation and nature-based mitigation strategies which integrate refugia, connectivity, and ecosystem carbon metrics to holistically evaluate the role of different land designations and where carbon mitigation and protection of biodiversity's resilience to climate change can be aligned., (© 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Expansion of the global protected-area network has been proposed as a strategy to address threats from accelerating climate change and species extinction. A key step in increasing the effectiveness of such expansion is understanding how novel threats to biodiversity from climate change alter concepts such as rewilding, which have underpinned many proposals for large interconnected reserves. We reviewed potential challenges that climate change poses to rewilding and found that the conservation value of large protected areas persists under climate change. Nevertheless, more attention should be given to protection of microrefugia, macrorefugia, complete environmental gradients, and areas that connect current and future suitable climates and to maintaining ecosystem processes and stabilizing feedbacks via conservation strategies that are resilient to uncertainty regarding climate trends. Because a major element of the threat from climate change stems from its novel geographic patterns, we examined, as an example, the implications for climate-adaptation planning of latitudinal, longitudinal (continental to maritime), and elevational gradients in climate-change exposure across the Yellowstone-to-Yukon region, the locus of an iconic conservation proposal initially designed to conserve wide-ranging carnivore species. In addition to a continued emphasis on conserving intact landscapes, restoration of degraded low-elevation areas within the region is needed to capture sites important for landscape-level climate resilience. Extreme climate exposure projected for boreal North America suggests the need for ambitious goals for expansion of the protected-area network there to include refugia created by topography and ecological features, such as peatlands, whose conservation can also reduce emissions from carbon stored in soil. Qualitative understanding of underlying reserve design rules and the geography of climate-change exposure can strengthen the outcomes of inclusive regional planning processes that identify specific sites for protection., (© 2020 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.)

A widespread increase in forest cover is underway in northern Mediterranean forests because of land abandonment and decreased wood demand, but the resilience of these successional forests to climate change remains unresolved. Here we use 18-year time series of canopy greenness derived from satellite imagery (NDVI) to evaluate the impacts of climate change on Spain's forests. Specifically, we analyzed how NDVI was influenced by the climatic water balance (i.e. Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI), using monthly time-series extracted from 3,100 pixels of forest, categorized into ten forest types. The forests increased in leaf area index by 0.01 per year on average (from 1.7 in 2000 to 1.9 in 2017) but there was enormous variation among years related to climatic water balance. Forest types varied in response to drought events: those dominated by drought-avoiding species showed strong covariance between greenness and SPEI, while those dominated by drought-tolerant species showed weak covariance. Native forests usually recovered more than 80% of greenness within the 18 months and the remainder within 5 years, but plantations of Eucalyptus were less resilient. Management to increase the resilience of forests-a key goal of forestry in the Mediterranean region-appears to have had a positive effect: canopy greenness within protected forests was more resilient to drought than within non-protected forests. In conclusion, many of Spain's successional forests have been resilient to drought over the past 18 years, from the perspective of space. Future studies will need to combine remote sensing with field-based analyses of physiological tolerances and mortality processes to understand how Mediterranean forests will respond to the rapid climate change predicted for this region in the coming decades., (© 2020 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

In response to global habitat loss, many governmental and non-governmental organizations have implemented land acquisition programs to protect critical habitats permanently for priority species. The ability of these protected areas to meet future management objectives may be compromised if the effects of climate change are not considered in acquisition decisions. Unfortunately, the effects of climate change on ecological systems are complex and plagued by uncertainty, making it difficult for organizations to prioritize research needs to improve decision-making. Herein, we demonstrate the use of qualitative value of information analysis to identify and prioritize which sources of uncertainty should be reduced to improve land acquisition decisions to protect migratory birds in the face of climate change. The qualitative value of information analysis process involves four steps: (i) articulating alternative hypotheses; (ii) determining the magnitude of uncertainty regarding each hypothesis; (iii) evaluating the relevance of each hypothesis to acquisition decision-making; and (iv) assessing the feasibility of reducing the uncertainty surrounding each hypothesis through research and monitoring. We demonstrate this approach using the objectives of 3 U.S. federal land acquisition programs that focus on migratory bird management. We used a comprehensive literature review, expert elicitation, and professional judgement to evaluate 11 hypotheses about the effect of climate change on migratory birds. Based on our results, we provide a list of priorities for future research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty and improve land acquisition decisions for the programs considered in our case study. Reducing uncertainty about how climate change will influence the spatial distribution of priority species and biotic homogenization were identified as the highest priorities for future research due to both the value of this information for improving land acquisition decisions and the feasibility of reducing uncertainty through research and monitoring. Research on how changes in precipitation patterns and winter severity will influence migratory bird abundance is also expected to benefit land acquisition decisions. By contrast, hypotheses about phenology and migration distance were identified as low priorities for research. By providing a rigorous and transparent approach to prioritizing research, we demonstrate that qualitative value of information is a valuable tool for prioritizing research and improving management decisions in other complex, high-uncertainty cases where traditional quantitative value of information analysis is not possible. Given the inherent complexity of ecological systems under climate change, and the difficulty of identifying management-relevant research priorities, we expect this approach to have wide applications within the field of natural resource management., (© 2020 Cambridge Philosophical Society.)

Expanding the network of protected areas is a core strategy for conserving biodiversity in the face of climate change. Here, we explore the impacts on reserve network cost and configuration associated with planning for climate change in the USA using networks that prioritize areas projected to be climatically suitable for 1460 species both today and into the future, climatic refugia and areas likely to facilitate climate-driven species movements. For 14% of the species, networks of sites selected solely to protect areas currently climatically suitable failed to provide climatically suitable habitat in the future. Protecting sites climatically suitable for species today and in the future significantly changed the distribution of priority sites across the USA-increasing relative protection in the northeast, northwest and central USA. Protecting areas projected to retain their climatic suitability for species cost 59% more than solely protecting currently suitable areas. Including all climatic refugia and 20% of areas that facilitate climate-driven movements increased the cost by another 18%. Our results indicate that protecting some types of climatic refugia may be a relatively inexpensive adaptation strategy. Moreover, although addressing climate change in conservation plans will have significant implications for the configuration of networks, the increased cost of doing so may be relatively modest. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Island species are difficult to conserve because they face the synergy of climate change, invasive species, deforestation, and increasing human population densities in areas where land mass is shrinking. The Caribbean island of Hispaniola presents particular challenges because of geopolitical complexities that span 2 countries and hinder coordinated management of species across the island. We employed species distribution modeling to evaluate the impacts of climatic change and anthropogenic activities on the distribution of an endemic mammal of conservation concern, the Hispaniolan solenodon (Solenodon paradoxus). We aggregated occurrence points for this poorly known species for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present (1975-2016) based on museum collections, online biodiversity databases, and new field surveys. We quantified degree of overlap between periods and scenarios with Schoener's D. Through a conservation paleobiology lens, we found that over time humans played an increasing role in shaping the distribution of S. paradoxus, thus, providing a foundation for developing conservation strategies on appropriate spatiotemporal scales. Human population density was the single most important predictor of S. paradoxus occurrence. Densities >166 people/km 2 corresponded to a near-zero probability of occurrence. Models that accounted for climate but not anthropogenic variables falsely identified suitable habitat in Haiti, where on-the-ground surveys confirm habitat is unavailable. Climate-only models also significantly overestimated the potential for habitat connectivity between isolated populations. Our work highlights that alternative fates for S. paradoxus in the Anthropocene exist across the political border between the Dominican Republic and Haiti due to the fundamentally different economic and political realities of each country. Relationships in the fossil record confirm that Hispaniola's sociopolitical boundary is not biologically significant but instead represents one imposed on the island's fauna in the past 500 years by colonial activity. Our approach reveals how a paleontological perspective can contribute to concrete management insights., (© 2019 Society for Conservation Biology.)

As climatic conditions shift in coming decades, persistence of many populations will depend on their ability to colonize habitat newly suitable for their climatic requirements. Opportunities for such range shifts may be limited unless areas that facilitate dispersal under climate change are identified and protected from land uses that impede movement. While many climate adaptation strategies focus on identifying refugia, this study is the first to characterize areas which merit protection for their role in promoting climate connectivity at a continental extent. We identified climate connectivity areas across North America by delineating paths between current climate types and their future analogs that avoided nonanalogous climates, and used centrality metrics to rank the contribution of each location to facilitating dispersal across the landscape. The distribution of connectivity areas was influenced by climatic and topographic factors at multiple spatial scales. Results were robust to uncertainty in the magnitude of future climate change arising from differing emissions scenarios and general circulation models, but sensitive to analysis extent and assumptions concerning dispersal behavior and maximum dispersal distance. Paths were funneled along north-south trending passes and valley systems and away from areas of novel and disappearing climates. Climate connectivity areas, where many potential dispersal paths overlapped, were distinct from refugia and thus poorly captured by many existing conservation strategies. Existing protected areas with high connectivity values were found in southern Mexico, the southwestern US, and western and arctic Canada and Alaska. Ecoregions within the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Great Plains, eastern temperate forests, high Arctic, and western Canadian Cordillera hold important climate connectivity areas which merit increased conservation focus due to anthropogenic pressures or current low levels of protection. Our coarse-filter climate-type-based results complement and contextualize species-specific analyses and add a missing dimension to climate adaptation planning by identifying landscape features which promote connectivity among refugia., (© 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Understanding the susceptibility of highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds to global change requires information on geographic patterns of occurrence across the annual cycle. Neotropical migrants that breed in North America and winter in Central America occur in high concentrations on their non-breeding grounds where they spend the majority of the year and where habitat loss has been associated with population declines. Here, we use eBird data to model weekly patterns of abundance and occurrence for 21 forest passerine species that winter in Central America. We estimate species' distributional dynamics across the annual cycle, which we use to determine how species are currently associated with public protected areas and projected changes in climate and land-use. The effects of global change on the non-breeding grounds is characterized by decreasing precipitation, especially during the summer, and the conversion of forest to cropland, grassland, or peri-urban. The effects of global change on the breeding grounds are characterized by increasing winter precipitation, higher temperatures, and the conversion of forest to peri-urban. During spring and autumn migration, species are projected to encounter higher temperatures, forests that have been converted to peri-urban, and increased precipitation during spring migration. Based on current distributional dynamics, susceptibility to global change is characterized by the loss of forested habitats on the non-breeding grounds, warming temperatures during migration and on the breeding grounds, and declining summer rainfall on the non-breeding grounds. Public protected areas with low and medium protection status are more prevalent on the non-breeding grounds, suggesting that management opportunities currently exist to mitigate near-term non-breeding habitat losses. These efforts would affect more individuals of more species during a longer period of the annual cycle, which may create additional opportunities for species to respond to changes in habitat or phenology that are likely to develop under climate change., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at multiple scales., (© 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Current systems of conservation reserves may be insufficient to sustain biodiversity in the face of climate change and habitat losses. Consequently, calls have been made to protect Earth's remaining wildlands and complete the system of protected areas by establishing conservation reserves that (1) better represent ecosystems, (2) increase connectivity to facilitate biota movement in response to stressors including climate change, and (3) promote species persistence within intact landscapes. Using geospatial data, we conducted an assessment for expanding protected areas within the contiguous United States to include the least human-modified wildlands, establish a connected network, and better represent ecosystem diversity and hotspots of biodiversity. Our composite map highlights areas of high value to achieve these goals in the western United States, where existing protected areas and lands with high ecological integrity are concentrated. We also identified important areas in the East rich in species and containing ecosystems that are poorly represented in the existing protected area system. Expanding protection to these priority areas is ultimately expected to create a more resilient system for protecting the nation's biological heritage. This expectation should be subject to rigorous testing prior to implementation, and regional monitoring will ensure areas and actions are adjusted over time., (© 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Habitat loss and climate change are primary drivers of global biodiversity loss. Species will need to track changing environmental conditions through fragmented and transformed landscapes such as KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Landscape connectivity is an important tool for maintaining resilience to global change. We develop a coarse-grained connectivity map between protected areas to aid decision-making for implementing corridors to maintain floristic diversity in the face of global change. The spatial location of corridors was prioritised using a biological underpinning of floristic composition that incorporated high beta diversity regions, important plant areas, climate refugia, and aligned to major climatic gradients driving floristic pattern. We used Linkage Mapper to develop the connectivity network. The resistance layer was based on land-cover categories with natural areas discounted according to their contribution towards meeting the biological objectives. Three corridor maps were developed; a conservative option for meeting minimum corridor requirements, an optimal option for meeting a target amount of 50% of the landscape and an option including linkages in highly transformed areas. The importance of various protected areas and critical linkages in maintaining landscape connectivity are discussed, disconnected protected areas and pinch points identified where the loss of small areas could compromise landscape connectivity. This framework is suggested as a way to conserve floristic diversity into the future and is recommended as an approach for other global connectivity initiatives. A lack of implementation of corridors will lead to further habitat loss and fragmentation, resulting in further risk to plant diversity.

Millions of birds migrate to and from the Arctic each year, but rapid climate change in the High North could strongly affect where species are able to breed, disrupting migratory connections globally. We modelled the climatically suitable breeding conditions of 24 Arctic specialist shorebirds and projected them to 2070 and to the mid-Holocene climatic optimum, the world's last major warming event ~6000 years ago. We show that climatically suitable breeding conditions could shift, contract and decline over the next 70 years, with 66-83% of species losing the majority of currently suitable area. This exceeds, in rate and magnitude, the impact of the mid-Holocene climatic optimum. Suitable climatic conditions are predicted to decline acutely in the most species rich region, Beringia (western Alaska and eastern Russia), and become concentrated in the Eurasian and Canadian Arctic islands. These predicted spatial shifts of breeding grounds could affect the species composition of the world's major flyways. Encouragingly, protected area coverage of current and future climatically suitable breeding conditions generally meets target levels; however, there is a lack of protected areas within the Canadian Arctic where resource exploitation is a growing threat. Given that already there are rapid declines of many populations of Arctic migratory birds, our results emphasize the urgency of mitigating climate change and protecting Arctic biodiversity., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Globally, 15.5 million km(2) of land are currently identified as protected areas, which provide society with many ecosystem services including climate-change mitigation. Combining a global database of protected areas, a reconstruction of global land-use history, and a global biogeochemistry model, we estimate that protected areas currently sequester 0.5 Pg C annually, which is about one fifth of the carbon sequestered by all land ecosystems annually. Using an integrated earth systems model to generate climate and land-use scenarios for the twenty-first century, we project that rapid climate change, similar to high-end projections in IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, would cause the annual carbon sequestration rate in protected areas to drop to about 0.3 Pg C by 2100. For the scenario with both rapid climate change and extensive land-use change driven by population and economic pressures, 5.6 million km(2) of protected areas would be converted to other uses, and carbon sequestration in the remaining protected areas would drop to near zero by 2100.

The combined effects of climate change and habitat loss represent a major threat to species and ecosystems around the world. Here, we analyse the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change based on current levels of habitat intactness and vulnerability to biome shifts, using multiple measures of habitat intactness at two spatial scales. We show that the global extent of refugia depends highly on the definition of habitat intactness and spatial scale of the analysis of intactness. Globally, 28% of terrestrial vegetated area can be considered refugia if all natural vegetated land cover is considered. This, however, drops to 17% if only areas that are at least 50% wilderness at a scale of 48×48 km are considered and to 10% if only areas that are at least 50% wilderness at a scale of 4.8×4.8 km are considered. Our results suggest that, in regions where relatively large, intact wilderness areas remain (e.g. Africa, Australia, boreal regions, South America), conservation of the remaining large-scale refugia is the priority. In human-dominated landscapes, (e.g. most of Europe, much of North America and Southeast Asia), focusing on finer scale refugia is a priority because large-scale wilderness refugia simply no longer exist. Action to conserve such refugia is particularly urgent since only 1 to 2% of global terrestrial vegetated area is classified as refugia and at least 50% covered by the global protected area network., (© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Conservationists need methods to conserve biological diversity while allowing species and communities to rearrange in response to a changing climate. We developed and tested such a method for northeastern North America that we based on physical features associated with ecological diversity and site resilience to climate change. We comprehensively mapped 30 distinct geophysical settings based on geology and elevation. Within each geophysical setting, we identified sites that were both connected by natural cover and that had relatively more microclimates indicated by diverse topography and elevation gradients. We did this by scoring every 405 ha hexagon in the region for these two characteristics and selecting those that scored >SD 0.5 above the mean combined score for each setting. We hypothesized that these high-scoring sites had the greatest resilience to climate change, and we compared them with sites selected by The Nature Conservancy for their high-quality rare species populations and natural community occurrences. High-scoring sites captured significantly more of the biodiversity sites than expected by chance (p < 0.0001): 75% of the 414 target species, 49% of the 4592 target species locations, and 53% of the 2170 target community locations. Calcareous bedrock, coarse sand, and fine silt settings scored markedly lower for estimated resilience and had low levels of permanent land protection (average 7%). Because our method identifies-for every geophysical setting-sites that are the most likely to retain species and functions longer under a changing climate, it reveals natural strongholds for future conservation that would also capture substantial existing biodiversity and correct the bias in current secured lands., (© 2014 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.)

Copyright of Fire Ecology is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We present a rare insight into the biodiversity of a remote, mountainous area of central Asia and outline challenges to conserve the critically endangered keystone argali (Ovis ammon ammon L.), the largest subspecies of mountain sheep. Existing conservation is set in the context of competition with livestock grazing and disturbance by local pastoralists. We suggest how this pressure would increase as pastures become degraded by a future more arid climate. Focusing on the transboundary population, migrating between the Russian and Mongolian Altai over the Sailugem Ridge, we track historical population numbers. Due to increased protection, the argali's local population is currently growing. However, most argali populations live outside the protected areas where they are forced to compete for forage with livestock. Due to ever-increasing anthropogenic pressures, argali has almost reached the region's environmental capacity, so the number of local populations is decreasing. Consequently, even the current situation requires more areas of protection, and climate change will accelerate pasture degradation, thereby further increasing competition with livestock. We present various ways to predict the impacts of changes in climate, e.g., the "7 M's approach" and grazing pressure and then recommend additional conservation measures acceptable for the indigenous population of traditional pastoralists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: The South China tiger is a unique subspecies of tiger endemic to China and has become extinct in the wild. However, it is currently unclear whether there are still ideal habitats suitable for the survival of the South China tiger population in China at present and in the future. Our goal is to assess which areas will become the most suitable for the reintroduction of the South China tiger to China under the impact of climate change, and to estimate the number of tigers these areas can support. This study selects eight key prey species of the South China tiger, and predicts the potential suitable habitats for each prey under current and future climates. The study reveals that the core candidate sites for the reintroduction of the South China tiger cover a total area of 83,415 km2, with the largest core candidate site area totaling 10,000 km2, located in Tibet, which can ideally support the survival of 89 South China tigers in the wild. This study provides a research basis and strategy for the recovery of wild South China tiger populations. The South China tiger (Panthera tigris amoyensis) is a tiger subspecies unique to China and one of the top ten endangered species in the world. It used to play an important role in the overall function of the ecosystem. This study rationally screened out key prey species of the South China tiger—the Chinese serow, Chinese goral, tufted deer, water deer, Chinese muntjac, red muntjac, sambar deer, and wild boar. Candidate sites for the rewilding and reintroduction of the South China tiger were derived by exploring changes in suitable habitats for the prey using the MaxEnt model. The results show that: (1) by 2070, except for the high-suitability areas of water deer and Chinese muntjac, the areas of suitable habitats for the other six prey species would all have decreased significantly; (2) the location of the high-suitability area of the South China tiger obtained by superimposing the suitable areas of the eight prey species would be almost stable in 2050 and 2070, but the habitat index of some high- and medium-suitability areas would decrease and turn into low-suitability areas; (3) the core candidate sites were 83,415 km2 in total, of which 25,630 km2 overlapped with existing protected areas, accounting for 30.7% of the core candidate sites, and the remaining 69.3% of the core candidate sites were mostly distributed around the protected areas; (4) the maximum core candidate site area was projected to be 10,000 km2 by 2070, which could support a small population of 23 male tigers and 66 female tigers to survive and reproduce in the wild. This study revealed the core candidate sites for the rewilding of South China tigers and estimated the number of tigers that could be reintroduced to these areas, providing a preliminary research basis for promoting the rewilding of South China tigers in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protected and conserved areas are a key area-based strategy to address the biodiversity and climate change crises. Indicators are fundamental to understanding performance over time. The Digital Observatory for Protected Areas (DOPA) was born in 2013 as a set of open-access web services and applications to be used to assess, monitor, and report on protected and conserved areas. For over a decade, it has delivered over 50 indicators to support policy processes, national and regional governments, and practitioners. DOPA has also developed a versatile and efficient back-end approach that is widely applicable in other area-based conservation contexts. Here, we describe the methods and workflows behind DOPA's back end and provide examples of policy relevant questions it can answer. We discuss the key advantages and limitations of this systematic and replicable approach and explore the use of this back-end architecture to inform progress in area-based conservation targets for the following decades. This approach, embedded in multiple services provided by the Knowledge Centre for Biodiversity of the European Commission (KCBD), can also support the implementation and monitoring of area-based targets of the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework at international, regional, and national levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st‐century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon‐intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Human land‐use and climate change are two of the main threats affecting biodiversity, especially in arid/semiarid regions. The most effective way to protect the species in these ecosystems against these threats is through the delimitation of protected areas (PAs). However, such PAs need to be targeted cost‐efficiently and consider future climate change. We identify priority areas to preserve small mammal species in the Caatinga in the present and in a future of climate changes. We also evaluate how well these priority areas are protected by currently PAs and identify ways forward to improve their protection. Location: The Caatinga Dry Forest, Northeast Brazil. Methods: We use ecological niche models and Zonation spatial prioritisation software to identify the top 30% priority areas to preserve small mammal species under current climate and land use scenarios, besides considering optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of future climate change. We also evaluate how much these priority areas are covered by current PAs, identify ways to further improve their protection using hierarchical mask analysis, and by evaluating species mean distribution coverage. Results: The consequences of climate change will not hugely impact the distribution of priority areas for species conservation in the Caatinga. Around 13% of the identified priority areas overlap with current PAs, and planning the expansion of PAs considering integral protection areas increases the coverage of priority areas to more than 18% and captures more than 72% of species suitable area. Main Conclusions: Our prioritisations take into account climate change and provide low risk if conducted as a 'no‐regrets' conservation action. These priority areas are poorly supported by the Brazilian PA system, and need of further protection. One cost‐effective option could be to upgrade some sustainable use PAs into more restrictive ones. Securing these priority areas helps preserve the long‐term ecosystem functioning and to prevent biodiversity loss in a changing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change threatens species and ecosystems globally, including forest ecosystems that support rich invertebrate diversity. Saproxylic beetles, that depend on old-growth trees and deadwood, are facing increasing pressure. Consequently, conserving these beetles has become a priority for EU Member States. We developed ensemble species distribution models for five saproxylic beetles for current and three future time horizons under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and two Global Circulation Models. We used a systematic conservation planning approach to assess the effectiveness and resilience to climate change of the Romanian Natura 2000 network for saproxylic beetles while identifying areas for prospective protected area expansion to meet EU conservation targets. Our study revealed that under all scenarios and time horizons, the saproxylic beetles may lose over 80% of their suitable habitat and restrict their distribution to higher elevations. According to the conservation prioritization analysis, we found that, when considering 30% of the landscape as being protected, an average of 85% of species distribution is retained within priority areas overlapping the Carpathian Mountains, while for the current protected area coverage (18% of Romania's terrestrial area), the existing Natura 2000 network does not perform satisfactorily, with only ~ 30% of the saproxylic species distributions falling within the network. Our results corroborate previous findings on saproxylic beetle range shifts and contractions due to climate change. Furthermore, our findings question the effectiveness of the current Natura 2000 network, as it is currently inadequate for protecting these species. To achieve the goals of the EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030 of protecting at least 30% of the EU's territory, we advocate the expansion of the Natura 2000 sites to future suitable saproxylic beetle habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The perils of climate change turn the definition of conservation areas into an urgent task. With finite financial resources, we must choose efficiently what and where to prioritize. Here, we discuss the benefits of using three parameters—species richness, functional and phylogenetic diversity—to subsidize the proposal of conservation areas complementary to those already existing in Southern South America and New Zealand. The parameters were defined using museum specimens and available taxonomic registers for three genera of craneflies: Aphrophila, Zelandomyia, and Amphineurus (Rhamphoneurus). We found additional priority conservation areas for New Zealand and Southern South America based on maximized species richness, phylogenetic and functional diversity of Aphrophila, Amphineurus (Rhamphoneurus), and Zelandomyia. We plotted the new areas into maps presenting the current conservation areas to compare them. We advocate utilizing all available information on biodiversity for conservation initiatives, including data stored in museums. New Zealand and Southern South America are examples of how dealing with multiple parameters, including criteria that take evolutionary history and species ecology into account, may lead to reliable proposals of priority conservation areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface freshwater is a vital resource that is declining globally, predominantly due to climate and land use changes. Cambodia is no exception and the loss threatens many species, such as the giant ibis a Critically Endangered waterbird. We aimed to quantify the spatial and temporal (2000–2020) change of surface water availability across northern and eastern Cambodia and to assess the impact of this on the giant ibis. We used a Random Forest Classifier to determine the changes and we tested the impact of land use and geographical covariates using spatially explicit regression models. We found an overall reduction of surface water availability of 4.16%. This was predominantly driven by the presence of Economic Land Concessions and roads which increased the probability of extreme drying and flooding events. The presence of protected areas reduced these probabilities. We found changes in precipitation patterns over the wider landscape did not correlate with changes in surface water availability, supporting the overriding influence of land use change. 98% of giant ibis nests recorded during the time period were found within 25m of surface water during the dry season, highlighting their dependency on surface water. The overall surface water decline resulted in a 25% reduction in dry season suitable habitat for the giant ibis. Although absolute changes in surface water over the whole area were relatively small, the impact on the highest quality habitat for ibis is disproportionate and therefore threatens its populations. Defining the threats to such an endangered species is crucial for effective management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Young shoots of Aralia elata and young leaves of Eleutherococcus senticosus are two major non-timber forest products in northeastern China. However, human activities and climate change have resulted in serious threats to the habitats of two trees, which greatly limits resource conservation and exploitation of economic forest trees. We used the MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitats of the two economic trees and analyzed the dominant factors affecting their distribution. The results showed that the suitable habitat areas of A. elata and E. senticosus in the current period were 159950 km2 and 123449 km2, respectively, and the suitable habitats of both economic forest trees were located in the eastern part of the northeast region. Climate factors (Annual precipitation, Precipitation Seasonality) and land use factors are important variables influencing changes in suitable habitat for both trees. With the change of climate and land use in the future, the overall trend of suitable habitat for both economic forest trees shows a northward and then a southward migration. These results may provide assistance in developing strategies for resource conservation and sustainable use of A. elata and E. senticosus, and we suggest that stable and suitable habitats should be selected as areas for in situ conservation and breeding of the two economic forest trees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By 1985, approximately 400,000 ha of the keystone species Shinnery oak's (Quercus havardii) historic distribution had been eliminated for agricultural purposes across the southwestern United States. These trends indicate a need for targeted conservation and restoration efforts, especially considering the increased attention received for its role in providing habitat for endangered fauna. Setting spatially explicit conservation targets can be challenging for species with limited distributions, as the change in climate conditions over time may disconnect the relationship between environmental suitability and static, topo‐edaphic factors. Our objective was to identify areas for Shinnery oak restoration and conservation and explore the role climate plays in determining these areas while considering topo‐edaphic relationships. We constructed ecological niche models to estimate Shinnery oak's distribution under current climate conditions and temporally transferred our model using an ensemble‐mean of general circulation models to identify areas predicted to retain environmental suitability for Shinnery oak through 2100. The current distribution model was best informed by one climate and two topo‐edaphic variables. We created a second distribution model excluding topo‐edaphic variables to estimate future plant–climate relationships. Incorporating insights from models informed by both static (e.g. soil) and dynamic (e.g. climate) variables, we identified areas for conservation characterized by persistent climate suitability and high soil type suitability. Lastly, we incorporated data on land use and ownership to explore socio‐ecological influences on management decisions. By identifying areas of agreement between our modeled distributions and considering social context, we prioritized conservation areas where environmental suitability persists under changing conditions to facilitate restoration success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current rates of climate change and gloomy climate projections confront managers and conservation planners with the need to integrate climate change into already complex decision‐making processes. Predicting and prioritizing climatically stable areas and the areas likely to facilitate adaptive species’ range adjustments are important stages in maximizing conservation outcomes and rationalizing future land management. I determined, for the most threatened European terrestrial mammal species, the spatial adaptive trajectories (SATs) of highest expected persistence up to 2080. I devised simple spatial network indices for evaluation of species in those SATs: total persistence; proportion of SATs that offer in situ adaptation (i.e., stable refugia); number of SATs converging in a site; and relationship between SAT convergence and persistence and protected areas, the Natura 2000 and Emerald networks, and areas of low human disturbance. I compared the performance of high‐persistence SATs with a scenario in which each species remained in the areas with the best climatic conditions in the baseline period. The 1000 most persistence SATs for each of the 39 species covered one fifth of Europe. The areas with the largest adaptive potential (i.e., high persistence, stability, and SAT convergence) did not always overlap for all the species. Predominantly, these regions were located in southwestern Europe, Central Europe, and Scandinavia, with some occurrences in Eastern Europe. For most species, persistence in the most climatically suitable areas during the baseline period was lower than within SATs, underscoring their reliance on adaptive movements. Importantly, conservation areas (particularly protected areas) covered only minor fractions of species persistence among SATs, and hubs of spatial climate adaptation (i.e., areas of high SAT convergence) were seriously underrepresented in most conservation areas. These results highlight the need to perform analyses on spatial species’ dynamics under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Impacts of global climate and land‐use changes on distribution patterns and breeding sites remain today poorly studied for several vulnerable emblematic bird species, including the Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos). Herein, we analyzed the potential effect of global climate changes and agricultural activities on the distribution patterns of this top predator across Mexico. We assessed the long-term role of protected areas (PAs) for safeguarding the species' overall distribution and its breeding sites. We evaluated current and future (2040s, 2060s, and 2080s) threats from global change using ecological niche modeling and geographic information system approaches to determine the percentage of the species' distribution area that overlaps with highly human-modified areas and PAs under each climate scenario. We also used niche overlap tests to assess whether the species' breeding sites show equivalence or similarity of climatic conditions over time. Our findings revealed shifts in the Golden Eagle's distributional area, with an overall size reduction (by ~ 57% in the 2040s and ~ 78% in the 2080s) due to future environmental changes, mainly attributable to increasingly dry and warm conditions. Mexican PAs cover ~ 12% of the Golden Eagle's range across country, but this decreased by > 33% on average under the species' future distributions. Although the hypothesis of equivalent climatic conditions at breeding sites over time was rejected, those sites did have long-term climate similarity (niche overlap: 0.75–0.83; P < 0.05). Considering the species' nest site fidelity and that colonization of new areas within Mexico seems unlikely, protection of these breeding sites is a critical step for the long-term conservation of this emblematic species in Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to the striking effects of environmental change, conservation strategies often include the identification of conservation areas that can effectively maintain vulnerable species. Consequently, identifying system‐specific conditions that maintain the demographic and genetic viability of species of conservation concern is essential. Connectivity plays a critical role in the persistence of populations. Islands have been model systems to understand connectivity and metapopulation processes and have emerged as particularly favorable targets for conservation. While islands can be isolated from mainland disturbances, it is unknown what degree of isolation is necessary to avoid unfavorable changes but remain sufficiently connected to maintain population viability. To test this question, we explored connectivity within the Apostle Islands, an archipelago of 22 islands within Lake Superior, by comparing historical and contemporary trends in ice bridge connectivity and by simulating the effect of reduced connectivity within this system. We developed a demographically informed individual‐based model to explicitly test the role of connectivity to influence the persistence and genetic diversity of American marten Martes americana, a forest carnivore at risk across its southern range boundary. We found that genetic diversity was resilient to moderate changes in ice cover, but a complete loss of connectivity resulted in rapid genetic erosion. Despite genetic erosion, populations persisted as long as nominal connectivity occurred between islands. Our work suggests that connectivity will decline, but martens would be resilient to moderate changes and, in the short term, the Apostle Islands can act as a refuge along this species' southern range boundary. Identifying thresholds in connectivity that maintain populations but allow for isolation from disturbance will be necessary to identify suitable areas for species conservation across space and time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to global warming and increased human activity, the wild population of Thuja koraiensis Nakai (T. koraiensis) has dropped, placing it in danger. An understanding of the response of T. koraiensis to climate change and the determination of priority conservation areas are tremendously critical for proper conservation. Using sixty-nine T. koraiensis distribution points and seven environmental factors, the Maxent model was used to predict potentially suitable areas and spatial variation patterns of T. koraiensis and the Marxan conservation planning model was used to evaluate conservation gap areas. Research shows that the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of potentially suitable areas for T. koraiensis included elevation, precipitation of the driest month, isothermality and precipitation of the wettest quarter. Under the current climatic conditions, highly suitable areas for T. koraiensis are mainly distributed in the Changbai Mountains within Samjiyon County and Baishan City, the Hamgyong Mountains within the western part of Hamgyong-Bukto Province, and the T'aeback-Sanmaek Mountains within Gangwon-do, Kumgangsan Special Administrative Region and Kangwon-do. Under future climate conditions, suitable areas for T. koraiensis show a decreasing trend, and the suitable area will be reduced to higher elevations, and the Hamgyong Mountains may become a refuge. Based on GAP analysis, 69.69% of the priority conservation areas of T. koraiensis are located outside of the nature reserve, and these conservation gap areas are primarily in the southern part of the Changbai Mountains and Kangwon-do. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amphibians and reptiles, especially the critically endangered Chinese alligators, are vulnerable to climate change. Historically, the decline in suitable habitats and fragmentation has restricted the distribution of Chinese alligators to a small area in southeast Anhui Province in China. However, the effects of climate change on range‐restricted Chinese alligator habitats are largely unknown. We aimed to predict current and future (2050s and 2070s) Chinese alligator distribution and identify priority conservation areas under climate change. We employed species distribution models, barycenter migration analyses, and the Marxian model to assess current and future Chinese alligator distribution and identify priority conservation areas under climate change. The results showed that the lowest temperature and rainfall seasonality in the coldest month were the two most important factors affecting the distribution of Chinese alligators. Future predictions indicate a reduction (3.39%–98.41%) in suitable habitats and a westward shift in their distribution. Further, the study emphasizes that suitable habitats for Chinese alligators are threatened by climate change. Despite the impact of the Anhui Chinese Alligator National Nature Reserve, protection gaps persist, with 78.27% of the area lacking priority protected area. Our study provides crucial data for Chinese alligator adaptation to climate change and underscores the need for improved conservation strategies. Future research should refine conservation efforts, consider individual plasticity, and address identified limitations to enhance the resilience of Chinese alligator populations in the face of ongoing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rare and endangered species have narrow geographical distributions and are vulnerable to environmental changes. Studying the impact of future climate change on their distributions and identifying areas of high conservation priority are key to halting biodiversity loss. In this study, we combined a species distribution model with systematic conservation planning to simulate the suitable distributions of rare and endangered vascular plants and vertebrates in Inner Mongolia in the current and future (the 2050s), analyzed the vulnerability of species, and identified areas with high conservation priority. Currently, species richness (SR) of vascular plant was high in the Greater Khingan Mountains, and SR of vertebrates was high on the Hulunbuir Plateau, which are two species-rich areas. By 2050, 41.8% to 54.6% of vascular plants will have a reduced suitable distribution area, versus 46.8% to 51.1% for vertebrates. Vascular plant SR increased significantly in the Mu Us Desert, which became a new species-rich area. Vertebrate SR increased in western Inner Mongolia, but species-rich areas changed little. Species-rich areas are also potentially affected by future land use change, particularly in grassland, forest, and cropland areas with high SR. The current priority biodiversity conservation area covers 12.27 × 104 km2, of which 80.6% is located outside existing protected areas. By 2050, this percentage may increase to 83.4%. Our study revealed the potential pressure of existing protected areas in protecting biodiversity under future climate change, which helps decision-makers develop the most appropriate development strategies in advance to promote China's sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical dry forests (TDF) have an enormously rich flora and fauna that offer various ecological services to the surrounding human societies. Biodiversity assessment is mandatory for implementing any sustainable forest management policy, which is why it is one of the important criteria and indicators currently used. Threats to TDF biodiversity are the primary challenges arising from environmental concerns caused by anthropogenic activity leading to global warming issues. The study aimed to investigate the vegetation assessment and several environmental and anthropogenic variables influencing forest biodiversity from 5 threatened forest sites of District Sialkot (Ghalotian, Kishan Garh, Daburgi Chanda Singh, Pir Kot, and Ghulab Garh), Pakistan. We collected 170 distinct plant species, including 135 dicots, 27 monocots, seven pteridophytes, and one bryophyte, categorized into 138 genera and 62 families, divided into 114 herbs, 32 trees, and 24 shrubs. The phytosociological analysis described the quantitative characteristics, including % frequency, % density, % cover, and importance Value Index (IVI) of all forest areas. Gulab Garh forest has the richest biodiversity forest area, and herbs are the dominant species that have been documented. Environmental factors such as temperature, precipitation, organic matter, soil pH, Ca+2, Mg+2, Na+, Cl-, and electric conductivity (EC) strongly affect forest vegetation investigated by principal coordinate analysis. Shannon and Simpson's diversity indexes reveal that all sites contain loamy and sandy soil and display a significant relationship between alpha diversity and richness. Increasing trends in temperature and decreasing trends in rainfall suggested that climate significantly affects the Sialkot region's plant biodiversity. SWOT analysis highlighted that population growth leads to increasing anthropogenic activities such as constructing housing societies and roads, inadequate farming, and excessive grazing, impacting the forest vegetation and altering TDF ecosystem properties/services and functioning. Our findings reinforce the vegetational assessment and importance of local forest biodiversity and significant environmental drivers that influence the plant species diversity in TDF areas. Future conservation strategies are suggested to reduce unlawful resource consumption, restore plant biodiversity in designated protected areas, and conserve rare species locally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity calls for an expansion of the current protected areas (PAs) to cover at least 30% of global land and water areas by 2030 (i.e., the 30×30 target). Efficient spatial planning for PA expansion is an urgent need for global conservation practice. A spatial prioritization framework considering multiple dimensions of biodiversity is critical for improving the efficiency of the spatial planning of PAs, yet it remains a challenge. We developed an index for the identification of priority areas based on functionally rare, evolutionarily distinct, and globally endangered species (FREDGE) and applied it to 21,536 terrestrial vertebrates. We determined species distributions, conservation status (global endangerment), molecular phylogenies (evolutionary distinctiveness), and life‐history traits (functional rarity). Madagascar, Central America, and the Andes were of high priority for the conservation of multiple dimensions of terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity. However, 68.8% of grid cells in these priority areas had <17% of their area covered by PAs, and these priority areas were under intense anthropogenic and climate change threats. These results highlight the difficulties of conserving multiple dimensions of biodiversity. Our global analyses of the geographical patterns of multiple dimensions of terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity demonstrate the insufficiency of the conservation of different biodiversity dimensions, and our index, based on multiple dimensions of biodiversity, provides a useful tool for guiding future spatial prioritization of PA expansion to achieve the 30×30 target under serious pressures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity reserves are a crucial in-situ method to conserve biodiversity hotspots as they are sensitive to climate change. The Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve (NDBR) in the western Himalayas is enriched with diverse endemic flora and fauna and endorses the second-highest mountain peak in the world. However, in the recent decade, this region has potentially warmed at an alarming rate. With 36 temperature and precipitation indices from high-resolution 40-year data from ERA5 reanalysis and CHIRPS, this paper assesses the state of warming and extreme climatic events. Apart from the indices, Landsat (NASA/USGS, USA) and QuickSCAT (ISRO, India) were utilized to assess the region's response to climate change. An increase of 0.73ºC in the last decade for minimum, 0.26°C for maximum temperatures was observed, with the highest anomaly of 1.7°C in 2016. The reserve's vegetation pattern has changed with the vegetative region's dispersal towards the north and higher elevations. In the year 2000, the area without any vegetation covered 79% of the total area, which declined to a mere 23.8% in the year 2020, equivalent to a 70% decline in the area. Similarly, the area with very dense region covered only 0.02% of the total area in the year 2000, and in the year 2020, it increased to 109%. Snow cover seems to be worst affected in the region with dense snow cover declining maximum by 2020. From coverage of 12.3% of the total area of the reserves, it was reduced to a mere 0.02%, showing a decline of nearly 100% in the region. Our findings show that although protected areas are meant to be resilient to external anthropogenic intrusions, they are highly susceptible to the intrinsic forces of induced climate change. We suggest that reserve managers enable robust measures to identify the distribution of vulnerable species and introduce new methods to preserve the pristine hotspot region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]