Rempakos A, Alexandrou M, Mutlu D, Kalyanasundaram A, Ybarra LF, Bagur R, Choi JW, Poommipanit P, Khatri JJ, Young L, Davies R, Benton S, Gorgulu S, Jaffer FA, Chandwaney R, Jaber W, Rinfret S, Nicholson W, Azzalini L, Kearney KE, Alaswad K, Basir MB, Krestyaninov O, Khelimskii D, Abi-Rafeh N, Elguindy A, Goktekin O, Aygul N, Rangan BV, Mastrodemos OC, Al-Ogaili A, Sandoval Y, Burke MN, and Brilakis ES
Background: There is limited data on predicting successful chronic total occlusion crossing using primary antegrade wiring (AW)., Objectives: The aim of this study was to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) prognostic model for successful chronic total occlusion crossing using primary AW., Methods: We used data from 12,136 primary AW cases performed between 2012 and 2023 at 48 centers in the PROGRESS CTO registry (Prospective Global Registry for the Study of Chronic Total Occlusion Intervention; NCT02061436) to develop 5 ML models. Hyperparameter tuning was performed for the model with the best performance, and the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) explainer was implemented to estimate feature importance., Results: Primary AW was successful in 6,965 cases (57.4%). Extreme gradient boosting was the best performing ML model with an average area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.775 (± 0.010). After hyperparameter tuning, the average area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of the extreme gradient boosting model was 0.782 in the training set and 0.780 in the testing set. Among the factors examined, occlusion length had the most significant impact on predicting successful primary AW crossing followed by blunt/no stump, presence of interventional collaterals, vessel diameter, and proximal cap ambiguity. In contrast, aorto-ostial lesion location had the least impact on the outcome. A web-based application for predicting successful primary AW wiring crossing is available online (PROGRESS-CTO website) (https://www.progresscto.org/predict-aw-success)., Conclusions: We developed an ML model with 14 features and high predictive capacity for successful primary AW in chronic total occlusion percutaneous coronary intervention., Competing Interests: Funding Support and Author Disclosures Dr Choi serves on the Advisory Board of Medtronic. Dr Poommipanit is a consultant for Asahi Intecc and Abbott Vascular. Dr Khatri has received personal honoraria for proctoring and speaking from Abbott Vascular, Medtronic, Terumo, Shockwave, and Boston Scientific. Dr Davies has received speaking honoraria from Abiomed, Asahi Intec, Boston Sci, Medtronic, Shockwave, and Teleflex; and serves on the Advisory Boards of Abiomed, Avinger, Boston Scientific, Medtronic, and Rampart. Dr Jaffer has performed sponsored research for Canon, Siemens, Shockwave, Teleflex, Mercator, and Boston Scientific; has serves as a consultant for Boston Scientific, Siemens, Magenta Medical, IMDS, Asahi Intecc, Biotronik, Philips, and Intravascular Imaging Inc; has equity interest in Intravascular Imaging Inc and DurVena; and has the right to receive royalties through Massachusetts General Hospital licensing arrangements with Terumo, Canon, and Spectrawave. Dr Jaber has received fees from Medtronic; and has received proctoring fees from Abbott. Dr Rinfret has received fees from Abbott Vascular, Abiomed, Boston Scientific, and SoundBite Medical; and has served as a consultant for Teleflex. Dr Nicholson has served as a proctor for Abbott Vascular, Boston Scientific, and Asahi Intecc; has served on the Speakers Bureau and Advisory Boards of Abbott Vascular, Boston Scientific, and Asahi Intecc; and has intellectual property with Vascular Solutions. Dr Azzalini has received consulting fees from Teleflex, Abiomed, GE Healthcare, Abbott Vascular, Reflow Medical, and Cardiovascular Systems, Inc; serves on the Advisory Boards of Abiomed and GE Healthcare; and owns equity in Reflow Medical. Dr Kearney has received consulting fees or honoraria from Asahi Intecc, Abiomed, Boston Scientific, Philips, Medtronic, Teleflex, and Reflow Medical. Dr Alaswad has served as a consultant and speaker for Boston Scientific, Abbott Cardiovascular, Teleflex, and CSI. Dr Abi-Rafeh has received proctor and speaker honoraria from Boston Scientific and Shockwave Medical. Dr Elguindy has received consulting honoraria from Medtronic, Boston Scientific, Asahi Intecc, and Terumo; and has received proctorship fees from Medtronic, Boston Scientific, Asahi Intecc, and Terumo. Dr Brilakis has received consulting/speaker honoraria from Abbott Vascular, American Heart Association (associate editor Circulation), Amgen, Asahi Intecc, Biotronik, Boston Scientific, Cardiovascular Innovations Foundation (Board of Directors), CSI, Elsevier, GE Healthcare, IMDS, Medicure, Medtronic, Siemens, Teleflex, and Terumo; has received research support from Boston Scientific and GE Healthcare; is an owner of Hippocrates LLC; and is a shareholder in MHI Ventures, Cleerly Health, and Stallion Medical. All other authors have reported that they have no relationships relevant to the contents of this paper to disclose., (Copyright © 2024 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)