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Natural disasters can uproot peoples' lives in a matter of minutes, leaving behind immeasurable hardships on the people and places that they strike. We examine the impact on voter turnout of one such force majeure in the days leading up to a midterm election. Leveraging the randomness of a rapidly developing, unpredictable Category 5 hurricane, we assemble an original dataset to examine the effects of Hurricane Michael on voting in Florida in the 2018 General Election. Our study assesses whether counties damaged by Hurricane Michael—as determined by relief policies administered by local election officials—affected voter behavior in 2018. Utilizing Difference-in-Difference (DID) models, we test whether voters registered in counties that were affected by Michael voted at rates comparable to their neighbors that were not directly impacted by the Category 5 hurricane. We also test whether voters in affected counties were more likely to alter their usual methods of voting. Our findings—that turnout was lower among those directly impacted by the storm but that early in-person voting helped to mitigate the effects—lend insight into how election administration decisions can offset the deleterious effects of a catastrophic event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Is there an optimum method to elicit public records from election officials? Using a field experiment that randomly assigned the wording and email domains used to solicit public records, we test how county election offices respond to requests under given conditions. We find that the response rates of Florida's 67 Supervisors of Elections (SOE) to a request for election administration data and election protocols after the 2018 General Election varies considerably, but that the formality of the language and the email domain randomly assigned only marginally affects the compliance of election officials to abide by the state's public records statutes. The variance in responses and lack of compliance seems to not be related to who asks for data nor how it is solicited, but rather is idiosyncratic. Despite the largely null findings, our study raises concerns about local election administration and transparency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of the COVID-19 threat to in-person voting in the November 2020 election, state and local election officials have pivoted to mail-in voting as a potential solution. This method of voting—while safe from a public health standpoint—comes with its own set of problems, as increased use of mail voting risks amplifying existing discrepancies in rejected mail ballots. While some mail ballot rejections are to be expected, a lack of uniformity in whose ballots get rejected among subgroups of voters—whether for mistakes on a ballot return envelope (BRE) or lateness—raise concerns about equal representation. We draw on official statewide voter file and mail-in ballot data from the 2018 midterm election in Georgia, a state that until the pandemic did not have widespread use of mail voting, to test whether some voters are more likely to cast a mail ballot that does not count. Most importantly, we distinguish between ballots rejected for lateness and those rejected for a mistake on the return envelope. We find that newly registered, young, and minority voters have higher rejection rates compared with their counterparts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although most ballots in the United States have historically been cast in-person, Americans are increasingly voting by mail, a trend that accelerated in the 2020 General Election. Mail ballots can be rejected after being cast, and our analysis of the Florida general elections of 2016, 2018, and 2020 shows that voters inexperienced with mail voting disproportionately submit ballots that end up rejected due to (1) late arrival at elections offices or (2) signature defects on return envelopes. Inexperienced mail voters are up to three times more likely to have their ballots rejected compared to experienced mail voters, and this inexperience penalty varies by a voter's party registration, race/ethnicity, and age. Our findings hold when controlling for additional voter characteristics and geographical fixed effects. The effect of inexperience on the likelihood of vote-by-mail ballot rejection risks exacerbating existing inequities in political representation already faced by younger and racial/ethnic minority voters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Can an electorate use the projected life expectancy of a lifetime-appointed chief executive to enforce binding, informal term limits? Informal term limits based on the life expectancy of a chief executive candidate at election would enable an electorate to exercise discretion in adjusting tenure lengths to minimize expected turnover and tenure-length costs, while also providing a strictly binding term limit: death. We provide a detailed historical case study of Venice from 1172 to 1797, when the ruling patricians utilized informal term limits on their chief executive, the doge, relying on the projected life expectancy of ducal candidates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How might personal concerns for one's health, and public health more generally, affect candidate vote choice during the COVID-19 crisis? In this, study we leverage a national survey conducted in the United States during the earliest phase of the pandemic, and an original survey fielded in Florida as positive COVID-19 rates were rising, to assess how personal exposure to the coronavirus conditions candidate vote choice. Despite heightened partisan polarization, we find that one's health concerns depressed support for the sitting president, even among Republicans. Individuals who were very concerned about contracting COVID-19, who wore a mask to protect themselves from the coronavirus, and who were more concerned about the virus's impact on public health than the economy were less likely to support the reelection of Donald J. Trump. As with retrospective and prospective economic voting, the threat of the health pandemic has the potential to alter the calculus of candidate vote choice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior research predicts that election administration changes that increase voting costs should decrease participation, but it fails to consider that some interpret those changes as attacking their franchise. Drawing on psychological reactance theory, this study tests whether such perceived attacks might instead activate those citizens. It leverages the State of Florida's multi-stage effort in 2012 to purge suspected non-citizens from its voter rolls, comparing the voting rates of suspected non-citizens whose registration was and was not formally challenged by the state. Within-registrant difference-in-difference and matching analyses estimate a positive, significant participatory effect of being challenged, particularly for Hispanics (the vast majority of the sample). Placebo tests show that those challenged were no more likely than those not challenged to vote in previous elections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of electoral competition plays a central role in many subfields of political science, but no consensus exists on how to measure it. One key challenge is how to conceptualize and measure electoral competitiveness at the district level across alternative electoral systems. Recent efforts to meet this challenge have introduced general measures of competitiveness which rest on explicit calculations about how votes translate into seats, but also implicit assumptions about how effort maps into votes (and how costly effort is). We investigate how assumptions about the effort-to-votes mapping affect the units in which competitiveness is best measured, arguing in favor of vote-share-denominated measures and against vote-share-per-seat measures. Whether elections under multimember proportional representation systems are judged more or less competitive than single-member plurality or runoff elections depends directly on the units in which competitiveness is assessed (and hence on assumptions about how effort maps into votes). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What is the minimum black population necessary to elect African-American state lawmakers? We offer the most comprehensive examination of the election of black state legislators in the post-Thornburg v. Gingles (1986) era. We begin by charting changes in the partisan affiliation of state legislators and the percentage of black legislators from 1971 to 2016. This descriptive assessment is undertaken according to important regional (Non-South and South) and subregional (Rim South and Deep South) contexts in American politics. We then perform multivariate analyses of the likelihood of electing black legislators across three periods following the marked increase in the creation of majorityminority districts (1993-1995, 2003-2005, 2013-2015). Because of sectional variation in the partisan strength of the major parties, the probability of achieving black representation is significantly different depending upon whether a contest occurs in the Non-South, Rim South, or Deep South, with the latter constituting of the highest threshold of black population necessary to elect an African-American. By merging an original dataset on state legislative elections with the most complete evaluation of the factors shaping the election of black lawmakers, our findings shed new light on minority representation and how sectional differences greatly affect the electoral success of African-Americans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Representative democracy entails the aggregation of multiple policy issues by parties into competing bundles of policies, or "manifestos," which are then evaluated holistically by voters in elections. This aggregation process obscures the multidimensional policy preferences underlying a voter's single choice of party or candidate. We address this problem through a conjoint experiment based on the actual party manifestos in Japan's 2014 House of Representatives election. By juxtaposing sets of issue positions as hypothetical manifestos and asking respondents to choose one, our study identifies the effects of specific positions on the overall assessment of manifestos, heterogeneity in preferences among subgroups of respondents, and the popularity ranking of manifestos. Our analysis uncovers important discrepancies between voter preferences and the portrayal of the election results by politicians and the media as providing a policy mandate to the Liberal Democratic Party, underscoring the potential danger of inferring public opinion from election outcomes alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since gaining full independence in 1905, Norway has experienced more than a century of democratic elections, and has reformed its electoral system three times, most notably with the switch from a two-round runoff system to proportional representation in 1919. This research note introduces a new dataset featuring all candidates running for parliamentary (Storting) elections from 1906 to 2013, and documents the patterns over time and across electoral systems in the development of the party system; candidates’ gender, age, occupation, and geographic ties; and voter turnout. Scholars interested in using the dataset can gain access to it through the Norwegian Centre for Research Data. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Kinship often continues to play an important role in determining the ruling class even under modern democratic elections in a wide range of countries. In recent years, academic interest in the causes and consequences of such dynasties has been rapidly expanding. In this introduction to the Feature, we review existing work on political dynasties' formation and potential implications for socio-economic outcomes (such as economic growth, distributive policy, and gender representation), and outline a number of questions and challenges that remain important avenues for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate whether politicians whose family relatives previously served in parliament and cabinet enjoy a competitive 'legacy advantage' in progressing from the backbenches to cabinet. This advantage may stem from two potential mechanisms: a direct effect attributable to the informational advantages of legacies or an indirect effect that operates through greater electoral strength. We evaluate the relative contribution of each mechanism using candidate-level data from Irish parliamentary elections and cabinets from 1944 to 2016. Our results reveal that politicians with a family history in cabinet do enjoy an advantage in cabinet selection, and that this advantage cannot be attributed simply to greater electoral popularity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A substantial body of research examines whether increasing the proportionality of an electoral system increases turnout, mostly based on cross-national comparisons. In this study, we offer two main contributions to the previous literature. First, we show that moving from a single-member district system to proportional representation in multimember districts should, according to recent theories of elite mobilization, produce a contraction in the distribution of mobilizational effort across districts and, hence, a contraction in the distribution of turnout rates. Second, we exploit a withincountry panel data set based on stable subnational geographic units before and after Norway's historic 1919 electoral reform in order to test various implications stemming from the contraction hypothesis. We find significant support for the predictions of the elite mobilization models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The amount of time that voters wait in line while casting their ballots has been a matter of consternation in electorates across the world and a subject of ongoing academic research in the field of election administration. With this as context, we offer here a study of voting lines that combines observed voter arrival times and measures of precinct processes with simulation results. Empirically, we focus on the town of Hanover, New Hampshire, during the 2014 United States General Election. Voters in Hanover initially authenticate themselves to election officials, mark their ballots in secret, and finally insert said ballots into optical scan tabulating machines. These steps are reasonably generic, and thus the way we study Hanover voters is generalizable to the study of voters in democracies across the world. Our simulations show that line voting evolution can be studied after a simple data-collection plan is implemented, and we show how scholars and election officials can evaluate the effects of changing precinct resources, like the numbers of voter authentication stations and voting booths, on the formation and duration of voting lines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shortly after the Supreme Court in Shelby County v. Holder struck down section 4(b) of the Voting Rights Act (VRA), the State of North Carolina enacted an omnibus piece of election-reform legislation known as the Voter Information Verification Act (VIVA). Prior to Shelby, portions of North Carolina were covered jurisdictions per the VRA's sections 4 and 5--meaning that they had to seek federal preclearance for changes to their election procedures-- and this motivates our assessment of whether VIVA's many alterations to North Carolina's election procedures are race-neutral. We show that in presidential elections in North Carolina black early voters have cast their ballots disproportionately in the first week of early voting, which was eliminated by VIVA; that blacks disproportionately have registered to vote during early voting and in the immediate run-up to Election Day, something VIVA now prohibits; that registered voters in the state who lack two VIVA-acceptable forms of voter identification, driver's licenses and non-operator identification cards, are disproportionately black; that VIVA's identification dispensation for voters at least seventy years old disproportionately benefits white registered voters; and, that preregistered sixteen and seventeen year old voters in North Carolina, a category of registrants that VIVA prohibits, are disproportionately black. These results illustrate how VIVA will have a disparate effect on black voters in North Carolina. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research has found that states using initiatives and referendums have higher turnout, particularly in midterm elections. Existing research has not examined who is mobilized to vote when issues appear on statewide ballots. Building on work by Campbell (1966. "Surge and Decline: A Study of Electoral Change." In Elections and the Political Order, eds. A. Campbell, E E. Converse, W. E. Miller, and D. E. Stokes. New York: Wiley), we test whether ballot measures engage and mobilize people who do not fit the profile of regular voters. Using national opinion data from the 2004 and 2006 elections, we find that independents (relative to partisans) exhibited greater awareness of and interest in ballot measures in the midterm election. This pattern is not found in the presidential election, where peripheral voters are likely to be mobilized by the stimulus of the presidential race rather than by ballot measures. Absent salient ballot measures, some episodic independent voters may not be engaged by midterm elections. This suggests that some variation in midterm turnout maybe a function of peripheral voters becoming engaged by ballot measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We demonstrate that direct democracy can affect the issues voters consider when evaluating presidential candidates. Priming theory assumes that some voters have latent attitudes or predispositions that can be primed to affect evaluations of political candidates. We demonstrate that: (1) state ballot measures on same sex marriage increased the salience of marriage as an issue that voters used when evaluating presidential candidates in 2004, particularly those voters less interested in the campaign and those likely to be less attentive to the issue prior to the election; and (2) that the primed issue (gay marriage) was a more important factor affecting candidate choice in states where marriage was on the ballot. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scholars have begun examining what Progressive reformers called the educative effects of direct democracy, especially the effect ballot initiatives have on voter turnout. Research based on aggregate-level voter age population (VAP) turnout data indicates that ballot measures increase turnout in low-information midterm elections but not in presidential elections. We analyze the impact of ballot initiative use on voter turnout from 1980 through 2002 using voter eligible population (VEP) turnout rates. Cross-sectional time-series analysis reveals that (a) ballot initiatives increase turnout in midterm as well as presidential elections and (b) the turnout effect in midterm and especially presidential elections is considerably larger than previously thought. On average, turnout in presidential elections increases by 0.70% with each initiative on the ballot, whereas turnout in midterm elections increases by 1.7%, all else equal. Given the closeness of the Electoral College contests, it is possible that the mobilizing effects of statewide ballot questions could be the determining factor in future presidential elections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzes the role of the 2002 elections in aiding the consolidation of the democratic process in Ghana. Assessment on the patterns of voter turnout and the lingering accusations of electoral irregularities; Impact of the structural inequalities on the electoral system of the country; Challenges in consolidating democratic process to the country.

The role of the media, both state-owned and private, is an important and often overlooked component of any election, particularly those occurring in developing countries. Unfortunately, the existing academic literature on the subject is thin, especially concerning the recent flurry of democratic elections in Africa. This article briefly reviews the history of the media in Ghana's Fourth republic and then examines the crucial role the media played in Ghana's historic 2000 presidential and parliamentary elections. It details how the media contributed to the general success of the elections in which John Kufuor's New Patriotic Party defeated Jerry Rawlings' incumbent National Democratic Congress. Then, drawing on untapped public opinion survey data from the Ghana Centre for Democratic Development, the Afrobarometer in Ghana, and the University of Ghana, it demonstrates how the various forms of the mass media are 'consumed' by Ghanaians, and how they affect citizens differently. Despite persistent romanticizing of the role of the media in many quarters, it concludes that, while the media are extremely important to certain segments of the Ghanaian population, they are virtually irrelevant to others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]