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Bayesian space-time regression models are helpful tools to describe and predict the distribution of infectious disease outbreaks and to delineate high-risk areas for disease control. In these models, structured and unstructured spatial and temporal effects account for various forms of non-independence amongst case counts across spatial units. Structured spatial effects capture correlations in case counts amongst neighboring provinces arising from shared risk factors or population connectivity. For highly mobile populations, spatial adjacency is an imperfect measure of connectivity due to long-distance movement, but we often lack data on host movements. Phylogeographic models inferring routes of viral dissemination across a region could serve as a proxy for patterns of population connectivity. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the effects of population connectivity in space-time regressions of case counts were better captured by spatial adjacency or by inferences from phylogeographic analyses. To compare these two approaches, we used foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) outbreak data from across Vietnam as an example. We identified that accounting for virus movement through phylogeographic analysis serves as a better proxy for population connectivity than spatial adjacency in spatial-temporal risk models. This approach may contribute to design surveillance activities in countries lacking movement data.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in India, where circulation of serotypes O, A and Asia1 is frequent. Here, we provide an epidemiological assessment of the ongoing mass vaccination programs in regard to post-vaccination monitoring and outbreak occurrence. The objective of this study was assessing the contribution of mass vaccination campaigns in reducing the risk of FMD in India from 2008 to 2016 by evaluating sero-monitoring data and modelling the spatiotemporal dynamics of reported outbreaks. Through analyzing antibody titre data from >1 million animals sampled as part of pre- and post-vaccination monitoring, we show that the percent of animals with inferred immunological protection (based on ELISA) was highly variable across states but generally increased through time. In addition, the number of outbreaks in a state was negatively correlated with the percent of animals with inferred protection. We then analyzed the distribution of reported FMD outbreaks across states using a Bayesian space-time model. This approach provides better acuity to disentangle the effect of mass vaccination programs on outbreak occurrence, while accounting for other factors that contribute to spatiotemporal variability in outbreak counts, notably proximity to international borders and inherent spatiotemporal correlations in incidence. This model demonstrated a ∼50% reduction in the risk of outbreaks in states that were part of the vaccination program. In addition, after controlling for spatial autocorrelation in the data, states that had international borders experienced heightened risk of FMD outbreaks. These findings help inform risk-based control strategies for India as the country progresses towards reducing reported clinical disease., (© 2022 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases published by Wiley-VCH GmbH.)

African buffalo are the natural reservoirs of the SAT serotypes of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in sub-Saharan Africa. Most buffalo are exposed to multiple FMDV serotypes early in life, and a proportion of them become persistently infected carriers. Understanding the genetic diversity and evolution of FMDV in carrier animals is critical to elucidate how FMDV persists in buffalo populations. In this study, we obtained oropharyngeal (OPF) fluid from naturally infected African buffalo, and characterized the genetic diversity of FMDV. Out of 54 FMDV-positive OPF, 5 were co-infected with SAT1 and SAT2 serotypes. From the five co-infected buffalo, we obtained eighty-nine plaque-purified isolates. Isolates obtained directly from OPF and plaque purification were sequenced using next-generation sequencing (NGS). Phylogenetic analyses of the sequences obtained from recombination-free protein-coding regions revealed a discrepancy in the topology of capsid proteins and non-structural proteins. Despite the high divergence in the capsid phylogeny between SAT1 and SAT2 serotypes, viruses from different serotypes that were collected from the same host had a high genetic similarity in non-structural protein-coding regions P2 and P3, suggesting interserotypic recombination. In two of the SAT1 and SAT2 co-infected buffalo identified at the first passage of viral isolation, the plaque-derived SAT2 genomes were distinctly grouped in two different genotypes. These genotypes were not initially detected with the NGS from the first passage (non-purified) virus isolation sample. In one animal with two SAT2 haplotypes, one plaque-derived chimeric sequence was found. These findings demonstrate within-host evolution through recombination and point mutation contributing to broad viral diversity in the wildlife reservoir. These mechanisms may be critical to FMDV persistence at the individual animal and population levels, and may contribute to the emergence of new viruses that have the ability to spill-over to livestock and other wildlife species.

The genetic diversity of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) poses a challenge to the successful control of the disease, and it is important to identify the emergence of different strains in endemic settings. The objective of this study was to evaluate the sampling of clinically healthy livestock at slaughterhouses as a strategy for genomic FMDV surveillance. Serum samples ( n = 11,875) and oropharyngeal fluid (OPF) samples ( n = 5045) were collected from clinically healthy cattle and buffalo on farms in eight provinces in southern and northern Vietnam (2015-2019) to characterize viral diversity. Outbreak sequences were collected between 2009 and 2019. In two slaughterhouses in southern Vietnam, 1200 serum and OPF samples were collected from clinically healthy cattle and buffalo (2017 to 2019) as a pilot study on the use of slaughterhouses as sentinel points in surveillance. FMDV VP1 sequences were analyzed using discriminant principal component analysis and time-scaled phylodynamic trees. Six of seven serotype-O and -A clusters circulating in southern Vietnam between 2017-2019 were detected at least once in slaughterhouses, sometimes pre-dating outbreak sequences associated with the same cluster by 4-6 months. Routine sampling at slaughterhouses may provide a timely and efficient strategy for genomic surveillance to identify circulating and emerging FMDV strains.

The continued endemicity of foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) in East Africa has significant implications for livestock production and poverty reduction, yet its complex epidemiology in endemic settings remains poorly understood. Identifying FMDV dispersal routes and drivers of transmission is key to improved control strategies. Environmental heterogeneity and anthropogenic drivers (e.g., demand for animal products) can impact viral spread by influencing host movements. Here, we utilized FMDV serotype O VP1 genetic sequences and corresponding spatiotemporal data in order to (i) infer the recent dispersal history, and (II) investigate the impact of external factors (cattle density, human population density, proximity to livestock markets, and drought) on dispersal velocity, location, and direction of FMDV serotype O in East Africa. We identified statistical evidence of long-distance transmission events, and we found that FMDV serotype O tends to remain circulating in areas of high cattle density, high human population density, and in close proximity to livestock markets. The latter two findings highlight the influence of anthropogenic factors on FMDV serotype O spread in this region. These findings contribute to the understanding of FMDV epidemiology in East Africa and can help guide improved control measures., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus serotype O is the predominant cause of FMD outbreaks in several regions of the world including India. Five independent neutralizing antigenic sites have been identified on the capsid surface of FMD virus serotype O. The relative importance of these neutralizing sites in eliciting antibody responses in the polyclonal sera collected from un-infected vaccinated (both primo and multiply-vaccinated) and naturally infected cattle populations were determined through a combination of reverse genetics and serology. The known critical amino acid residues present on the five antigenic sites of FMD virus serotype O Indian vaccine strain O IND R2/1975 were mutated through site-directed mutagenesis. The mutant viruses were rescued in cell-culture and analyzed through virus-neutralization assays along with parent virus using the polyclonal sera collected from three groups of cattle. In the polyclonal sera from primo-vaccinated cattle, significantly higher level of antibodies were directed towards antigenic site 2. In contrast, in polyclonal sera from multiply vaccinated animals, both antigenic sites 1 and 2 were equally important. In case of naturally infected animals, antibody responses were elicited against all the five antigenic sites. Although a drop in neutralization titres was observed for all the mutants, in one instance, increase in titre was noticed for a site 3 mutant. The findings from this study extend our knowledge on the antibody immunodominace following FMDV vaccination and infection, and may improve our strategies for vaccine strain selection and rational vaccine design., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) has a substantial impact on cattle populations in Uganda, causing short- and long-term production losses and hampering local and international trade. Although FMDV has persisted in Uganda for at least 60 years, its epidemiology there and in other endemic settings remains poorly understood. Here, we utilized a large-scale cross-sectional study of cattle to elucidate the dynamics of FMDV spread in Uganda. Sera samples (n = 14,439) from 211 herds were analyzed for non-structural protein reactivity, an indication of past FMDV exposure. Serological results were used to determine spatial patterns, and a Bayesian multivariable logistic regression mixed model was used to identify risk factors for FMDV infection. Spatial clustering of the disease was evident, with higher risk demonstrated near international borders. Additionally, high cattle density, low annual rainfall, and pastoralism were associated with increased likelihood of FMD seropositivity. These results provide insights into the complex epidemiology of FMDV in Uganda and will help inform refined control strategies in Uganda and other FMDV-endemic settings., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Here, we report the results of a cross-sectional study designed to monitor the circulation and genetic diversity of foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) in Uganda between 2014 and 2017. In this study, 13,614 sera and 2,068 oral-pharyngeal fluid samples were collected from cattle and analysed to determine FMDV seroprevalence, circulating serotypes and their phylogenetic relationships. Circulation of FMDV was evidenced by the detection of antibodies against non-structural proteins of FMDV or viral isolations in all districts sampled in Uganda. Sequence analysis revealed the presence of FMDV serotypes A, O, SAT 1 and SAT 2. FMDVs belonging to serotype O, isolated from 21 districts, were the most prevalent and were classified into six lineages within two East African topotypes, namely EA-1 and EA-2. Serotype A viruses belonging to the Africa G-I topotype were isolated from two districts. SAT 1 viruses grouped within topotypes I and IV and SAT 2 viruses within topotypes VII, IV and X were isolated from six and four districts respectively. Phylogenetic analysis of SAT 1 and SAT 2 sequences from cattle clustered with historical sequences from African buffalo, indicating possible interspecies transmission at the wildlife-livestock interface. In some cases, Uganda viruses also shared similarities to viral strains recovered from other regions in East Africa. This 3-year study period provides knowledge about the geographical distribution of FMDV serotypes isolated in Uganda and insights into the genetic diversity of the multiple serotypes circulating in the country. Knowledge of circulating FMDV viruses will assist in antigenic matching studies to devise improved FMDV control strategies with vaccination and vaccine strain selection for Uganda., (© 2019 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.)

Understanding the dynamics of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), an endemic and economically constraining disease, is critical in designing control programmes in Africa. This study investigates the evolutionary epidemiology of SAT1 and SAT2 FMDV in Eastern Africa, as well as between cattle and wild African buffalo. Bayesian phylodynamic models were used to analyse SAT1 and SAT2 VP1 gene segments collected between 1975 and 2016, focusing on the SAT1 and SAT2 viruses currently circulating in Eastern Africa. The root state posterior probabilities inferred from our analyses suggest Zimbabwe as the ancestral location for SAT1 currently circulating in Eastern Africa (p = 0.67). For the SAT2 clade, Kenya is inferred to be the ancestral location for introduction of the virus into other countries in Eastern Africa (p = 0.72). Salient (Bayes factor >10) viral dispersal routes were inferred from Tanzania to Kenya, and from Kenya to Uganda for SAT1 and SAT2, respectively. Results suggest that cattle are the source of the SAT1 and SAT2 clades currently circulating in Eastern Africa. In addition, our results suggest that the majority of SAT1 and SAT2 in livestock come from other livestock rather than wildlife, with limited evidence that buffalo serve as reservoirs for cattle. Insights from the present study highlight the role of cattle movements and anthropogenic activities in shaping the evolutionary history of SAT1 and SAT2 in Eastern Africa. While the results may be affected by inherent limitations of imperfect surveillance, our analysis elucidates the dynamics between host species in this region, which is key to guiding disease intervention activities., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) poses a significant obstacle to international trade and economic development, and for that reason, FMD prevention, control and eradication are major goals guiding animal health policy in most countries. The purpose of this study was to conduct a retrospective spatiotemporal analysis of FMD outbreaks among livestock in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) from 1955 to 2013. During that time, several FMD control strategies were implemented in RK, which culminated with the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) recognition of RK as a country that is FMD-free with partial vaccination (2015). Here, we describe and analyse the changes in spatial and temporal dynamics of FMD under different control strategies that were utilized as the country progressively moved towards eradication of the disease. A total number of 5,260 FMD outbreaks of serotype O and A (including the A 22 lineage) were recorded in the cattle, pig and small ruminant populations of RK during that period. We found that outbreaks occurred in spatiotemporal clusters only prior to 1970, which is before ring vaccination around outbreaks was first employed. This finding suggests that ring vaccination substantially reduced local spread and prevented large FMD epidemics in the country. Disease incidence steadily decreased after the implementation of ring vaccination and culling of infected animals, with spatiotemporal clusters only occurring as a result of an introduction of an antigenically distinct variant of serotype A. From 1955 to 1984, FMD outbreaks demonstrated two seasonal peaks of incidence in the spring and fall. In contrast, only the peak in spring was observed between 1984 and 2013. Quantitative knowledge on how different policy and alternative control strategies contributed to RK achieving FMD-free status could improve prospects for continued control in RK and inform control strategies in other FMD-endemic regions., (© 2018 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.)

Compartmental models have often been used to test the effectiveness and efficiency of alternative control strategies to mitigate the spread of infectious animal diseases. A fundamental principle of epidemiological modelling is that models should start as simple as possible and become as complex as needed. The simplest version of a compartmental model assumes that the population is closed, void of births and deaths and that this closed population mixes homogeneously, meaning that each infected individual has an equal probability of coming into contact with each susceptible individual in the population. However, this assumption may oversimplify field conditions, leading to conclusions about disease mitigation strategies that are suboptimal. Here, we assessed the impact of the homogeneous mixing/closed population assumption, which is commonly assumed for within-farm models of highly contagious diseases of swine, such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), on predictions about disease spread. Incorporation of farm structure (different barns or rooms for breeding and gestation, farrowing, nursery and finishing) and demography (piglet births and deaths, and animal movement within and off of the farm) resulted in transmission dynamics that differed in the latter portion of an outbreak. Specifically, farm structure and demography, which were included in the farrow to finish and farrow to wean farms, resulted in FMD virus persistence within the population under certain conditions. Results here demonstrate the impact of incorporating farm structure and demography into models of FMD spread in swine populations and will ultimately contribute to the design and evaluation of effective disease control strategies to mitigate the impact of potential incursions., (© 2018 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.)

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an important transboundary disease with substantial economic impacts. Although between-herd transmission of the disease has been well studied, studies focusing on within-herd transmission using farm-level outbreak data are rare. The aim of this study was to estimate parameters associated with within-herd transmission, host physiological factors and FMD virus (FMDV) persistence using data collected from an outbreak that occurred at a large, organized dairy farm in India. Of 1,836 regularly vaccinated, adult dairy cattle, 222 had clinical signs of FMD over a 39-day period. Assuming homogenous mixing, a frequency-dependent compartmental model of disease transmission was built. The transmission coefficient and basic reproductive number were estimated to be between 16.2-18.4 and 67-88, respectively. Non-pregnant animals were more likely to manifest clinical signs of FMD as compared to pregnant cattle. Based on oropharyngeal fluid (probang) sampling and FMDV-specific RT-PCR, four of 36 longitudinally sampled animals (14%) were persistently infected carriers 10.5 months post-outbreak. There was no statistical difference between subclinical and clinically infected animals in the duration of the carrier state. However, prevalence of NSP-ELISA antibodies differed significantly between subclinical and clinically infected animals 12 months after the outbreak with 83% seroprevalence amongst clinically infected cattle compared to 69% of subclinical animals. This study further elucidates within-herd FMD transmission dynamics during the acute-phase and characterizes duration of FMDV persistence and seroprevalence of FMD under natural conditions in an endemic setting., (© 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.)

The goal of this study was to characterize the properties and duration of the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) carrier state and associated serological responses subsequent to vaccination and naturally occurring infection at two farms in northern India. Despite previous vaccination of cattle in these herds, clinical signs of FMD occurred in October 2013 within a subset of animals at the farms containing juvenile-yearling heifers and steers (Farm A) and adult dairy cattle (Farm B). Subsequent to the outbreak, FMD virus (FMDV) asymptomatic carriers were identified in both herds by seroreactivity to FMDV non-structural proteins and detection of FMDV genomic RNA in oropharyngeal fluid. Carriers' seroreactivity and FMDV genome detection status were subsequently monitored monthly for 23 months. The mean extinction time of the carrier state was 13.1 ± 0.2 months, with extinction having occurred significantly faster amongst adult dairy cattle at Farm B compared to younger animals at Farm A. The rate of decrease in the proportion of carrier animals was calculated to be 0.07 per month. Seroprevalence against FMDV non-structural proteins decreased over the course of the study period, but was found to increase transiently following repeated vaccinations. These data provide novel insights into viral and host factors associated with the FMDV carrier state under natural conditions. The findings reported herein may be relevant to field veterinarians and governmental regulatory entities engaged in FMD response and control measures., (© 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.)