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Background: Individuals who have experienced a stroke, or transient ischemic attack, face a heightened risk of future cardiovascular events. Identification of genetic and molecular risk factors for subsequent cardiovascular outcomes may identify effective therapeutic targets to improve prognosis after an incident stroke., Methods: We performed genome-wide association studies for subsequent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; n cases =51 929; n controls =39 980) and subsequent arterial ischemic stroke (AIS; n cases =45 120; n controls =46 789) after the first incident stroke within the Million Veteran Program and UK Biobank. We then used genetic variants associated with proteins (protein quantitative trait loci) to determine the effect of 1463 plasma protein abundances on subsequent MACE using Mendelian randomization., Results: Two variants were significantly associated with subsequent cardiovascular events: rs76472767 near gene RNF220 (odds ratio, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.64-0.85]; P =3.69×10 -8 ) with subsequent AIS and rs13294166 near gene LINC01492 (odds ratio, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.37-1.67]; P =3.77×10 -8 ) with subsequent MACE. Using Mendelian randomization, we identified 2 proteins with an effect on subsequent MACE after a stroke: CCL27 ([C-C motif chemokine 27], effect odds ratio, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.66-0.88]; adjusted P =0.05) and TNFRSF14 ([tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily member 14], effect odds ratio, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.24-1.60]; adjusted P =0.006). These proteins are not associated with incident AIS and are implicated to have a role in inflammation., Conclusions: We found evidence that 2 proteins with little effect on incident stroke appear to influence subsequent MACE after incident AIS. These associations suggest that inflammation is a contributing factor to subsequent MACE outcomes after incident AIS and highlights potential novel targets., Competing Interests: Dr Tilling reports grants from the National Institute for Health and Care Research; grants from Wellcome Trust; and grants from Medical Research Council. Dr Gaunt reports grants from the National Institute for Health and Care Research (UK); grants from Biogen; grants from UK Medical Research Council; and grants from GlaxoSmithKline. Dr Gaziano reports grants from the US Department of Veterans Affairs. Dr Davey Smith reports grants from the Medical Research Council. Dr Peloso reports support from Veterans Health Administration; employment by Boston University; compensation from the American Heart Association for consultant services; and grants from the National Institutes of Health. Dr Hartley started working for Novo Nordisk after contributing to this article. The other authors report no conflicts.

Genetic studies of disease progression can be used to identify factors that may influence survival or prognosis, which may differ from factors that influence on disease susceptibility. Studies of disease progression feed directly into therapeutics for disease, whereas studies of incidence inform prevention strategies. However, studies of disease progression are known to be affected by collider (also known as "index event") bias since the disease progression phenotype can only be observed for individuals who have the disease. This applies equally to observational and genetic studies, including genome-wide association studies and Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses. In this paper, our aim is to review several statistical methods that can be used to detect and adjust for index event bias in studies of disease progression, and how they apply to genetic and MR studies using both individual- and summary-level data. Methods to detect the presence of index event bias include the use of negative controls, a comparison of associations between risk factors for incidence in individuals with and without the disease, and an inspection of Miami plots. Methods to adjust for the bias include inverse probability weighting (with individual-level data), or Slope-Hunter and Dudbridge et al.'s index event bias adjustment (when only summary-level data are available). We also outline two approaches for sensitivity analysis. We then illustrate how three methods to minimise bias can be used in practice with two applied examples. Our first example investigates the effects of blood lipid traits on mortality from coronary heart disease, while our second example investigates genetic associations with breast cancer mortality., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Mitchell et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Genome-wide association studies have provided many genetic markers that can be used as instrumental variables to adjust for confounding in epidemiological studies. Recently, the principle has been applied to other forms of bias in observational studies, especially collider bias that arises when conditioning or stratifying on a variable that is associated with the outcome of interest. An important case is in studies of disease progression and survival. Here, we clarify the links between the genetic instrumental variable methods proposed for this problem and the established methods of Mendelian randomisation developed to account for confounding. We highlight the critical importance of weak instrument bias in this context and describe a corrected weighted least-squares procedure as a simple approach to reduce this bias. We illustrate the range of available methods on two data examples. The first, waist-hip ratio adjusted for body-mass index, entails statistical adjustment for a quantitative trait. The second, smoking cessation, is a stratified analysis conditional on having initiated smoking. In both cases, we find little effect of collider bias on the primary association results, but this may propagate into more substantial effects on further analyses such as polygenic risk scoring and Mendelian randomisation., (© 2022 The Authors. Genetic Epidemiology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Background: Bone accrual impacts lifelong skeletal health, but genetic discovery has been primarily limited to cross-sectional study designs and hampered by uncertainty about target effector genes. Here, we capture this dynamic phenotype by modeling longitudinal bone accrual across 11,000 bone scans in a cohort of healthy children and adolescents, followed by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and variant-to-gene mapping with functional follow-up., Results: We identify 40 loci, 35 not previously reported, with various degrees of supportive evidence, half residing in topological associated domains harboring known bone genes. Of several loci potentially associated with later-life fracture risk, a candidate SNP lookup provides the most compelling evidence for rs11195210 (SMC3). Variant-to-gene mapping combining ATAC-seq to assay open chromatin with high-resolution promoter-focused Capture C identifies contacts between GWAS loci and nearby gene promoters. siRNA knockdown of gene expression supports the putative effector gene at three specific loci in two osteoblast cell models. Finally, using CRISPR-Cas9 genome editing, we confirm that the immediate genomic region harboring the putative causal SNP influences PRPF38A expression, a location which is predicted to coincide with a set of binding sites for relevant transcription factors., Conclusions: Using a new longitudinal approach, we expand the number of genetic loci putatively associated with pediatric bone gain. Functional follow-up in appropriate cell models finds novel candidate genes impacting bone accrual. Our data also raise the possibility that the cell fate decision between osteogenic and adipogenic lineages is important in normal bone accrual.

BackgroundHip minimum joint space width (mJSW) provides a proxy for cartilage thickness. This study aimed to conduct a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of mJSW to (i) identify new genetic determinants of mJSW and (ii) identify which mJSW loci convey hip osteoarthritis (HOA) risk and would therefore be of therapeutic interest.MethodsGWAS meta-analysis of hip mJSW derived from plain X-rays and DXA was performed, stratified by sex and adjusted for age and ancestry principal components. Mendelian randomisation (MR) and cluster analyses were used to examine causal effect of mJSW on HOA.Findings50,745 individuals were included in the meta-analysis. 42 SNPs, which mapped to 39 loci, were identified. Mendelian randomisation (MR) revealed little evidence of a causal effect of mJSW on HOA (ORIVW 0.98 [95% CI 0.82-1.18]). However, MR-Clust analysis suggested the null MR estimates reflected the net effect of two distinct causal mechanisms cancelling each other out, one of which was protective, whereas the other increased HOA susceptibility. For the latter mechanism, all loci were positively associated with height, suggesting mechanisms leading to greater height and mJSW increase the risk of HOA in later life.InterpretationsOne group of mJSW loci reduce HOA risk via increased mJSW, suggesting possible utility as targets for chondroprotective therapies. The second group of mJSW loci increased HOA risk, despite increasing mJSW, but were also positively related to height, suggesting they contribute to HOA risk via a growth-related mechanism.FundingPrimarily funded by the Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust.