1. The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management
- Author
-
Heidi Kreibich, Anne F. Van Loon, Kai Schröter, Philip J. Ward, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Nivedita Sairam, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, María Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Thi Thao Nguyen Huynh, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Hong Quan Nguyen, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. Van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, Günter Blöschl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Water and Climate Risk, German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam (GFZ), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Technische Universität Braunschweig = Technical University of Braunschweig [Braunschweig], University of Houston, Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU), University of California (UC), Istanbul Technical University (ITÜ), Universidad de la frontera [Chile], Center for Climate and Resilience Research [Conception] ((CR)2), Universidad de Concepción - University of Concepcion [Chile], Operations Department, Barcelona Cicle de l’Aigua, University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon] (U of S), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Groundwater Management, Deltares, Delft, University of Birmingham [Birmingham], Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, Imperial College London, Beykent University [Istanbul], University of Freiburg [Freiburg], University of Bristol [Bristol], Cabot Institute, Hellenic Mediterranean University, Greece, Centre de Recherche en Géographie (LOTERR), Université de Lorraine (UL), Research Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection [Perugia] (IRPI), National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA), Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Università Iuav di Venezia = Iuav University of Venice (IUAV), Foundation for Research and Technology - Hellas (FORTH), Pontificia Bolivariana University, Faculty of Civil Engineering [Bucaramanga], California State University [Long Beach] (CSULB ), Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Emil Racoviță Institute of Speleology (ERIS), Romanian Academy, University Stefan cel Mare of Suceava (USU), Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences [Moscow] (RAS), University of Sciences [Ho Chi Minh City] (HCMC), Ho Chi Minh City University of Science (HCMUS), ENVIRONMENT AGENCY BRISTOL GBR, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Technical University of Crete [Chania], Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología del Perú, University of Barcelona, British Geological Survey [Wallingford], British Geological Survey (BGS), Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science [Uppsala], Uppsala University, Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), Penn State System, Escola de Engenharia de São Carlos (EESC-USP), Universidade de São Paulo = University of São Paulo (USP), Deltares [The Netherlands], Trelleborg municipality, Lund University [Lund], Institute of Environmental Science and Geography [Potsdam], University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam, Hanoi University of Science and Technology (HUST), Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, University of Technology, Vietnam National University - Ho Chi Minh City (Faculty of Chemical Engineering), Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology (HCMUT), OE OBSERVATORI DE L'EBRE RAMON LLULL UNIVERSITY ROQUETES ESP, Università degli Studi di Roma 'La Sapienza' = Sapienza University [Rome] (UNIROMA), Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg = Otto-von-Guericke University [Magdeburg] (OVGU), Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS), Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMGW - PIB), Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China, Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Royal Botanical Gardens Kew [London], KWR Watercycle Research Institute, Utrecht University [Utrecht], University of Nebraska–Lincoln, University of Nebraska System, Nanjing University (NJU), Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien), Institute for Water Education (IHE Delft ), and European Project: 01003276
- Subjects
General Science & Technology ,[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes ,hydrology ,datasets as topic ,Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser ,Settore SECS-P/06 - Economia Applicata ,risk management ,Flood ,DISASTER LOSSES ,Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources ,extreme weather ,Natural disasters ,Canvi climàtic ,[SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology ,ADAPTATION ,humans ,Multidisciplinary ,Science & Technology ,Drought ,droughts ,HAZARD ,Catàstrofes naturals ,[SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography ,Floods ,internationality ,Climatic change ,Multidisciplinary Sciences ,SOCIAL VULNERABILITY ,climate change ,[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology ,floods ,Inundacions ,ENGENHARIA HIDRÁULICA ,Science & Technology - Other Topics ,MYRIAD-EU - Abstract
Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3.
- Published
- 2022